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Theories of Simplification and Scaling of Spatially Distributed Processes

The problem of scaling is at the heart of ecological theory, the essence of understanding and of the development of a predictive capability. The description of any system depends on the spatial, temporal, and organizational perspective chosen; hence it is essential to understand not only how patterns and dynamics vary with scale, but also how patterns at one scale are manifestations of processes operating at other scales. Evolution has shaped the characteristics of species in ways that result in scale displacement: Each species experiences the environment at its own unique set of spatial and temporal scales and interfaces the biota through unique assemblages of phenotypes. In this way, coexistence becomes possible, and biodiversity is enhanced. By averaging over space, time, and biological interactions, a genotype filters variation at fine scales and selects the arena in which it will face the vicissitudes of nature. Variation at finer scales is then noise, of minor importance to the survival and dynamics of the species, and consequently of minor importance in any attempt at description. In attempting to model ecological interactions in space, contributors throughout this book have struggled with a trade-off between simplification and "realistic" complexity and detail. Although the challenge of simplification is widely recognized in ecology, less appreciated is the intertwining of scaling questions and scaling laws with the process of simplification. In the context of this chapter simplification will in general mean the use of spatial or ensemble means and low-order moments to capture more detailed interactions by integrating over given areas. In this way, one can derive descriptions of the system at different spatial scales, which provides the essentials for the extraction of scaling laws by examination of how system properties vary with scale.

Levin, Simon A.↗

The Impact of Current and Future Polar Orbiting Satellite Data on Numerical Weather Prediction at NASA/GSFC

The lack of adequate observational data continues to be recognized as a major factor limiting both atmospheric research and numerical prediction on a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Since the advent of meteorological satellites in the 1960's, a considerable research effort has been directed toward the design of space-borne meteorological sensors, the development of optimal methods for the utilization of these data, (and an assessment of the influence of existing satellite data and the potential influence of future satellite observations on numerical weather prediction. This has included both Observing System Experiments (OSEs) and Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). OSEs are conducted to evaluate the impact of specific observations or classes of observations on analyses and forecasts. While OSEs are performed with existing data, OSSEs are conducted to evaluate the potential for future observing systems to improve-NWP, as well as to evaluate trade-offs in observing system design, and to develop and test improved methods for data assimilation. At the conference, results from OSEs to evaluate satellite data sets that have recently become available to the global observing system, such as AIRS and Seawinds, and results from OSSEs to determine the potential impact of space-based lidar winds will be presented.

Atlas, Robert↗

Fine Particulate Matter Predictions Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) Retrievals

To date, spatial-temporal patterns of particulate matter (PM) within urban areas have primarily been examined using models. On the other hand, satellites extend spatial coverage but their spatial resolution is too coarse. In order to address this issue, here we report on spatial variability in PM levels derived from high 1 km resolution AOD product of Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm developed for MODIS satellite. We apply day-specific calibrations of AOD data to predict PM(sub 2.5) concentrations within the New England area of the United States. To improve the accuracy of our model, land use and meteorological variables were incorporated. We used inverse probability weighting (IPW) to account for nonrandom missingness of AOD and nested regions within days to capture spatial variation. With this approach we can control for the inherent day-to-day variability in the AOD-PM(sub 2.5) relationship, which depends on time-varying parameters such as particle optical properties, vertical and diurnal concentration profiles and ground surface reflectance among others. Out-of-sample "ten-fold" cross-validation was used to quantify the accuracy of model predictions. Our results show that the model-predicted PM(sub 2.5) mass concentrations are highly correlated with the actual observations, with out-of- sample R(sub 2) of 0.89. Furthermore, our study shows that the model captures the pollution levels along highways and many urban locations thereby extending our ability to investigate the spatial patterns of urban air quality, such as examining exposures in areas with high traffic. Our results also show high accuracy within the cities of Boston and New Haven thereby indicating that MAIAC data can be used to examine intra-urban exposure contrasts in PM(sub 2.5) levels.

aerosol optical depth↗

Adaptation of Mesoscale Weather Models to Local Forecasting

Methodologies have been developed for (1) configuring mesoscale numerical weather-prediction models for execution on high-performance computer workstations to make short-range weather forecasts for the vicinity of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and (2) evaluating the performances of the models as configured. These methodologies have been implemented as part of a continuing effort to improve weather forecasting in support of operations of the U.S. space program. The models, methodologies, and results of the evaluations also have potential value for commercial users who could benefit from tailoring their operations and/or marketing strategies based on accurate predictions of local weather. More specifically, the purpose of developing the methodologies for configuring the models to run on computers at KSC and CCAFS is to provide accurate forecasts of winds, temperature, and such specific thunderstorm-related phenomena as lightning and precipitation. The purpose of developing the evaluation methodologies is to maximize the utility of the models by providing users with assessments of the capabilities and limitations of the models. The models used in this effort thus far include the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS), the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta Model ( Eta for short). The configuration of the MASS and RAMS is designed to run the models at very high spatial resolution and incorporate local data to resolve fine-scale weather features. Model preprocessors were modified to incorporate surface, ship, buoy, and rawinsonde data as well as data from local wind towers, wind profilers, and conventional or Doppler radars. The overall evaluation of the MASS, Eta, and RAMS was designed to assess the utility of these mesoscale models for satisfying the weather-forecasting needs of the U.S. space program. The evaluation methodology includes objective and subjective verification methodologies. Objective (e.g., statistical) verification of point forecasts is a stringent measure of model performance, but when used alone, it is not usually sufficient for quantifying the value of the overall contribution of the model to the weather-forecasting process. This is especially true for mesoscale models with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution that may be capable of predicting meteorologically consistent, though not necessarily accurate, fine-scale weather phenomena. Therefore, subjective (phenomenological) evaluation, focusing on selected case studies and specific weather features, such as sea breezes and precipitation, has been performed to help quantify the added value that cannot be inferred solely from objective evaluation.

Manobianco, John T.↗

Coronal Heating, Spicules, and Solar-B

Falconer et al. investigated the heating of the quiet corona by measuring the increase of coronal luminosity with the amount of the magnetic flux in the underlying network at solar minimum when there were no active regions on the face of the Sun. The coronal luminosity was measured from Fe IX/X - Fe XII pairs of coronal images from SOHO/EIT, under the assumption that practically all of the coronal luminosity in these very quiet regions came from plasma in the temperature range 0.9 x 10(exp 6) K is less than or equal to T is less than or equal to 1.3 x 10(exp 6) K. The network magnetic flux content was measured from SOHO/MDI magnetograms. It was found that luminosity of the corona in these quiet regions increased roughly in proportion to the square root of the magnetic flux content of the network and roughly in proportion to the length of the perimeter of the network flux clumps. From 1) this result; 2) the observed occurrence of many fine-scale explosive events (e.g., spicules) at the edges of network flux clumps; and 3) a demonstration that it is energetically feasible for the heating of the corona in quiet regions to be driven by explosions of granule-sized sheared-core magnetic bipoles embedded in the edges of the network flux clumps, Falconer et al. infer that in quiet regions that are not influenced by active regions the corona is mainly heated by such magnetic activity in the edges of the network flux clumps. From their observational results together with their feasibility analysis, Falconer et al. predict that 1) At the edges of the network flux clumps there are many transient sheared core bipoles of the size and lifetime of granules and having transverse field strengths greater than approx. 100 G; 2) Approx. 30 of these bipoles are present per supergranule; and 3) Most spicules are produced by explosions of these bipoles. The photospheric vector magnetograms, chromospheric filtergrams, and EUV spectra from Solar-B are expected to have sufficient sensitivity, spatial resolution, and cadence to test these predictions. The Falconer et al. (2003) inferred mixed-polarity magnetic flux at the base of spicules is compatible with the observed magnetic structure of Ha macrospicules recently found by Yamuchi et al. (2003).

Moore, Ron↗

Model For Dense Molecular Cloud Cores

We present a detailed theoretical model for the thermal balance, chemistry, and radiative transfer within quiescent dense molecular cloud cores that contain a central protostar. In the interior of such cores, we expect the dust and gas temperatures to be well coupled, while in the outer regions CO rotational emissions dominate the gas cooling and the predicted gas temperature lies significantly below the dust temperature. Large spatial variations in the gas temperature are expected to affect the gas phase chemistry dramatically; in particular, the predicted water abundance varies by more than a factor of 1000 within cloud cores that contain luminous protostars. Based upon our predictions for the thermal and chemical structure of cloud cores, we have constructed self-consistent radiative transfer models to compute the line strengths and line profiles for transitions of (12)CO, (13)CO, C(18)O, ortho- and para-H2(16)O, ortho- and para-H2(18)O, and O I. We carried out a general parameter study to determine the dependence of the model predictions upon the parameters assumed for the source. We expect many of the far-infrared and submillimeter rotational transitions of water to be detectable either in emission or absorption with the use of the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO) and the Submillimeter Wave Astronomy Satellite. Quiescent, radiatively heated hot cores are expected to show low-gain maser emission in the 183 GHz 3(sub 13)-2(sub 20) water line, such as has been observed toward several hot core regions using ground-based telescopes. We predict the (3)P(sub l) - (3)P(sub 2) fine-structure transition of atomic oxygen near 63 micron to be in strong absorption against the continuum for many sources. Our model can also account successfully for recent ISO observations of absorption in rovibrational transitions of water toward the source AFGL 2591.

Doty, Steven D.↗

A New Hybrid Spatio-temporal Model for Estimating Daily Multi-year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data

The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter PM(sub 2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data.We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM(sub 2.5) at a 1X 1 km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1 X 1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM(sub 2.5) measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R(sup 2) = 0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R(sup 2) = 0.87, R(sup)2 = 0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions and will be useful in reconstructing exposure histories for epidemiological studies across this region.

Air pollution↗

Predicting Lightning Initiation using Deep Learning

Lightning occurrence presents safety challenges to people and property. The main challenge with lightning safety is that the majority of guidance is reactive. In other words, lightning has to have already occurred nearby before a person will respond and take shelter. Further, most injuries or fatalities occur as the storm approaches, or as it's moving away, when rainfall may not be present at the time of the flash. Thus, this project develops a physically-based deep learning model to produce lightning probabilities out to 15 minutes. The deep learning model combines a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to capture both the spatial and temporal evolution of storms to predict the probability that lightning initiation will occur in the next 15 minutes. The model combines radar reflectivity, correlation coefficient and differential reflectivity to inferred storm hydrometer type and precipitation phase, which aids in the identification of electrification processes. The model is trained with data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), which is a near infrared sensor onboard the GOES-R series of satellites that measures optical brightness from lightning. This presentation will provide an overview of the project.

Andrew T White↗

On the Spatial and Temporal Accuracy of Overset Grid Methods for Moving Body Problems

A study of numerical attributes peculiar to an overset grid approach to unsteady aerodynamics prediction is presented. Attention is focused on the effect of spatial error associated with interpolation of intergrid boundary conditions and temporal error associated with explicit update of intergrid boundary points on overall solution accuracy. A set of numerical experiments are used to verify whether or not the use of simple interpolation for intergrid boundary conditions degrades the formal accuracy of a conventional second-order flow solver, and to quantify the error associated with explicit updating of intergrid boundary points. Test conditions correspond to the transonic regime. The validity of the numerical results presented here are established by comparison with existing numerical results of documented accuracy, and by direct comparison with experimental results.

Meakin, Robert L.↗

Cluster evolution and microwave source counts

We present the modeled counts for the expected Sunyaev-Zel'dovich microwave sources associated with clusters of galaxies, predicted for experiments with arcminute-scale spatial resolution, assuming self-similar cluster evolution, for different spectra of the primordial density fluctuations and values of the cosmological density parameter Omega. Our simulations show that the source counts should be a powerful test of the evolution of very high redshift clusters. Experiments with 1 - 2 min spatial resolution, with moderate sensitivity but covering a large area of the sky, would be most effective for studying the SZ source population. Recent arcminute-scale radio experiments, the Owens Valley Radio Observatory (OVRO) RING experiment and VLA deep imaging, achieved sensitivity and sky coverage close to that needed for the detection of negative sources associated with very distant clusters. From the absence of cluster detections in these experiments, we rule out, with 90% confidence, models with Omega less than 0.3 and n = +1 as predicting too many bright sources; or there is no hot gas in clusters more distant than z(sub max) = 5 in such models. If the single negative source detected in the RING experiment is a distant cluster, the Omega = 1, n = -2 model also may be ruled out as it predicts too few sources. The new generation of telescopes, including the new SUZIE and Ryle instruments, will soon be able to detect distant clusters. The cluster population in the past has been modeled by scaling the observed present-day sample of X-ray clusters back to high redshifts, an approach which makes the best use of the observed cluster gas parameters, and makes the simulations robust to the assumed evolution at very early epochs. Although the pure self-similar model may be incompatible with the variety of observed evolutionary effects, we show that reasonable modifications to the intracluster gas history in that model, proposed to reconcile the self-similar evolution of cluster mass and the observed evolution of their X-ray luminosity, do not considerably change our microwave predictions made using the pure self-similar model. That is, the results of our simulations are applicable to the wide class of evolutionary models in which the cluster gas mass times gas temperature evolves as the dark mass times cluster virial temperature.

Markevitch, M.↗

An Earth System Digital Twin for Flood Prediction and Analysis

An Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) is a dynamic, interactive, digital replica of the state and temporal evolution of Earth systems. It integrates multiple models along with observation data, and connecting them with analysis, AI, and visualization tools. Together, these enable users to explore the current state of the Earth system, predict future conditions, and run hypothetical scenarios to understand how the system would evolve under various assumptions. The NASA’s Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST)’s Integrated Digital Earth Analysis System (IDEAS) project is to establish an extensible architectural solution to develop digital twins of our physical environment for Earth Science. IDEAS delivers a formal system architecture with mechanisms for the outputs of one model to feed into others; for driving models with observation data; and for harmonizing observation data and model outputs for analysis. To validate and demonstrate the IDEAS architecture, this project collaborates with the Space Climate Observatory (SCO)’s FloodDAM project and the Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES) to focus on floods detection, prediction and their impacts.

Kettig, Peter↗

Temperature, Pressure, and Infrared Image Survey of an Axisymmetric Heated Exhaust Plume

The focus of this research is to numerically predict an infrared image of a jet engine exhaust plume, given field variables such as temperature, pressure, and exhaust plume constituents as a function of spatial position within the plume, and to compare this predicted image directly with measured data. This work is motivated by the need to validate computational fluid dynamic (CFD) codes through infrared imaging. The technique of reducing the three-dimensional field variable domain to a two-dimensional infrared image invokes the use of an inverse Monte Carlo ray trace algorithm and an infrared band model for exhaust gases. This report describes an experiment in which the above-mentioned field variables were carefully measured. Results from this experiment, namely tables of measured temperature and pressure data, as well as measured infrared images, are given. The inverse Monte Carlo ray trace technique is described. Finally, experimentally obtained infrared images are directly compared to infrared images predicted from the measured field variables.

Nelson, Edward L.↗

Observations on the propagation, growth, and predictability of Gulf Stream meanders

During a three-year period, Gulf Stream positions determined by satellite infrared imagery on a grid northeast of Cape Hatteras have been correlated against 'inlet' path parameters (displacement from the mean position, angle, and curvature) monitored by an array of inverted echo sounders. By cross-spectral calculations between these measurements, the downstream coherences, phase speeds, and spatial growth rates were determined. The downstream path predictability from these inlet parameters was tested in a multiple input linear response model. The most energetic meanders, with periods of 33-50 days, remained highly coherent for 300 km downstream, roughly the dominant wavelength, with marginal coherence again at 500-575 km. Phase speeds are frequency dependent and decrease with distance downstream. For the 50- (33) day meanders, phase speeds decreased from 10 (17) km/d at the inlet to 6 (8) km/d at a distance downstream of about 550 km. The average growth rate (spatial e-folding wave number) over the entire region is 1.3 x 10 to the -3rd per km. Within 300 km of the inlet, the multiple coherence accounts for 55-65 percent of the total path-displacement variance, with displacement and angle being the best individual predictors in the first and last halves of this region, respectively.

Vazquez, J.↗

Higher-Order Methods for Compressible Turbulent Flows Using Entropy Variables

Turbulent flows have a large range of spatial and temporal scales which need to be resolved in order to obtain accurate predictions. Higher-order methods can provide greater efficiency for simulations requiring high spatial and temporal resolution, allowing for solutions with fewer degrees of freedom and lower computational cost than traditional second-order computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods.1 Higher-order methods have been widely used for turbulent flows. However, the reduced numerical stabilization present in higher-order schemes implies that special care needs to be taken in the development of numerical methods to suppress nonlinear instabilities.2–6 In this work we present the development of a higher-order space-time discontinuous Galerkin method with a focus on the aspects of our numerical scheme required for ensuring nonlinear stability for turbulent simulations at high Reynolds numbers.

Diosady, Laslo T.↗

High-Efficiency High-Resolution Global Model Developments at the NASA Goddard Data Assimilation Office

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has been developing a new generation of ultra-high resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) that is suitable for 4-D data assimilation, numerical weather predictions, and climate simulations. These three applications have conflicting requirements. For 4-D data assimilation and weather predictions, it is highly desirable to run the model at the highest possible spatial resolution (e.g., 55 km or finer) so as to be able to resolve and predict socially and economically important weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and severe winter storms. For climate change applications, the model simulations need to be carried out for decades, if not centuries. To reduce uncertainty in climate change assessments, the next generation model would also need to be run at a fine enough spatial resolution that can at least marginally simulate the effects of intense tropical cyclones. Scientific problems (e.g., parameterization of subgrid scale moist processes) aside, all three areas of application require the model's computational performance to be dramatically improved as compared to the previous generation. In this talk, I will present the current and future developments of the "finite-volume dynamical core" at the Data Assimilation Office. This dynamical core applies modem monotonicity preserving algorithms and is genuinely conservative by construction, not by an ad hoc fixer. The "discretization" of the conservation laws is purely local, which is clearly advantageous for resolving sharp gradient flow features. In addition, the local nature of the finite-volume discretization also has a significant advantage on distributed memory parallel computers. Together with a unique vertically Lagrangian control volume discretization that essentially reduces the dimension of the computational problem from three to two, the finite-volume dynamical core is very efficient, particularly at high resolutions. I will also present the computational design of the dynamical core using a hybrid distributed-shared memory programming paradigm that is portable to virtually any of today's high-end parallel super-computing clusters.

Lin, Shian-Jiann↗

High-Efficiency High-Resolution Global Model Developments at the NASA Goddard Data Assimilation Office

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has been developing a new generation of ultra-high resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) that is suitable for 4-D data assimilation, numerical weather predictions, and climate simulations. These three applications have conflicting requirements. For 4-D data assimilation and weather predictions, it is highly desirable to run the model at the highest possible spatial resolution (e.g., 55 kin or finer) so as to be able to resolve and predict socially and economically important weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and severe winter storms. For climate change applications, the model simulations need to be carried out for decades, if not centuries. To reduce uncertainty in climate change assessments, the next generation model would also need to be run at a fine enough spatial resolution that can at least marginally simulate the effects of intense tropical cyclones. Scientific problems (e.g., parameterization of subgrid scale moist processes) aside, all three areas of application require the model's computational performance to be dramatically improved as compared to the previous generation. In this talk, I will present the current and future developments of the "finite-volume dynamical core" at the Data Assimilation Office. This dynamical core applies modem monotonicity preserving algorithms and is genuinely conservative by construction, not by an ad hoc fixer. The "discretization" of the conservation laws is purely local, which is clearly advantageous for resolving sharp gradient flow features. In addition, the local nature of the finite-volume discretization also has a significant advantage on distributed memory parallel computers. Together with a unique vertically Lagrangian control volume discretization that essentially reduces the dimension of the computational problem from three to two, the finite-volume dynamical core is very efficient, particularly at high resolutions. I will also present the computational design of the dynamical core using a hybrid distributed- shared memory programming paradigm that is portable to virtually any of today's high-end parallel super-computing clusters.

Lin, Shian-Jiann↗

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD): Instrument Status and Performance Predictions

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative radiometer which offers new and unique remotely sensed observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) [Uhlhorn and Black, 2004]. The HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer (STAR) technology [Ruf et al., 1988]. This sensor operates over 4-7 GHz, where the required tropical cyclone remote sensing physics has been validated by both SFMR and WindSat radiometer [Bettenhausen et al., 2006; Brown et al., 2006]. HIRAD incorporates a new and unique array antenna design along with several technologies successfully demonstrated by the Lightweight Rain Radiometer instrument [Ruf et al., 2002; Ruf and Principe, 2003]. HIRAD will be a compact, lightweight, low-power instrument with no moving parts that will produce wide-swath imagery of ocean winds and rain in hurricane conditions. Accurate observations of surface ocean vector winds (OVW) with high spatial and temporal resolution are required for understanding and predicting tropical cyclones. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative architecture which offers new and unique remotely sensed observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is a proven remote sensing technique for observing tropical cyclone (TC) ocean surface wind speeds and rain rates. The proposed HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer (STAR) technology combined with a a unique array antenna design. The overarching design concept of HIRAD is to combine the multi-frequency C-band observing strategy of the SFMR with STAR technology to produce a wide-swath imager. Single frequency STAR technology The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative radiometer which offers new and unique remotely sensed observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) [Uhlhorn and Black, 2004]. The HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer (STAR) technology [Ruf et al., 1988]. This sensor operates over 4-7 GHz, where the required tropical cyclone remote sensing physics has been validated by both SFMR and WindSat radiometer [Bettenhausen et al., 2006; Brown et al., 2006]. HIRAD incorporates a new and unique array antenna design along with several technologies successfully demonstrated by the Lightweight Rain Radiometer instrument [Ruf et al., 2002; Ruf and Principe, 2003]. HIRAD will be a compact, lightweight, low-power instrument with no moving parts that will produce wide-swath imagery of ocean winds and rain in hurricane conditions. Accurate observations of surface ocean vector winds (OVW) with high spatial and temporal resolution are required for understanding and predicting tropical cyclones. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative architecture which offers new and unique remotely sensed observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is a proven remote sensing technique for observing tropical cyclone (TC) ocean surface wind speeds and rain rates. The proposed HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer (STAR) technology combined with a a unique array antenna design. The overarching design concept of HIRAD is to combine the multi-frequency C-banbserving strategy of the SFMR with STAR technology to produce a wide-swath imager. Single frequency STAR technology

Ruf, Christopher↗

Application of Geostatistical Simulation to Enhance Satellite Image Products

With the deployment of Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites that provide daily, global imagery, there is increasing interest in defining the limitations of the data and derived products due to its coarse spatial resolution. Much of the detail, i.e. small fragments and notches in boundaries, is lost with coarse resolution imagery such as the EOS MODerate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. Higher spatial resolution data such as the EOS Advanced Spaceborn Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), Landsat and airborne sensor imagery provide more detailed information but are less frequently available. There are, however, both theoretical and analytical evidence that burn scars and other fragmented types of land covers form self-similar or self-affine patterns, that is, patterns that look similar when viewed at widely differing spatial scales. Therefore small features of the patterns should be predictable, at least in a statistical sense, with knowledge about the large features. Recent developments in fractal modeling for characterizing the spatial distribution of undiscovered petroleum deposits are thus applicable to generating simulations of finer resolution satellite image products. We will present example EOS products, analysis to investigate self-similarity, and simulation results.

Hlavka, Christine A.↗