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At least 199 records · Page 11

Permafrost Carbon: Progress on Understanding Stocks and Fluxes Across Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems

Significant progress in permafrost carbon science made over the past decades include the identification of vast permafrost carbon stocks, the development of new pan-Arctic permafrost maps, an increase in terrestrial measurement sites for CO 2 and methane fluxes, and important factors affecting carbon cycling, including vegetation changes, periods of soil freezing and thawing, wildfire, and other disturbance events. Process-based modeling studies now include key elements of permafrost carbon cycling and advances in statistical modeling and inverse modeling enhance understanding of permafrost region C budgets. By combining existing data syntheses and model outputs, the permafrost region is likely a wetland methane source and small terrestrial ecosystem CO 2 sink with lower net CO 2 uptake toward higher latitudes, excluding wildfire emissions. For 2002–2014, the strongest CO2 sink was located in western Canada (median: -52 g C m -2 y -1 ) and smallest sinks in Alaska, Canadian tundra, and Siberian tundra (medians: -5 to -9 g C m -2 y -1 ). Eurasian regions had the largest median wetland methane fluxes (16–18 g CH4 m -2 y -1 ). Quantifying the regional scale carbon balance remains challenging because of high spatial and temporal variability and relatively low density of observations. More accurate permafrost region carbon fluxes require: (a) the development of better maps characterizing wetlands and dynamics of vegetation and disturbances, including abrupt permafrost thaw; (b) the establishment of new year-round CO 2 and methane flux sites in underrepresented areas; and (c) improved models that better represent important permafrost carbon cycle dynamics, including non-growing season emissions and disturbance effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fine root and soil carbon stocks are positively related in grasslands but not in forests

Increasing fine root carbon (FRC) inputs into soils has been proposed as a solution to increasing soil organic carbon (SOC). However, FRC inputs can also enhance SOC loss through priming. Here, we tested the broad-scale relationships between SOC and FRC at 43 sites across the US National Ecological Observatory Network. We found that SOC and FRC stocks were positively related with an across-ecosystem slope of 7 ± 3 kg SOC m −2 per kg FRC m −2 , but this relationship was driven by grasslands. Grasslands had double the across-ecosystem slope while forest FRC and SOC were unrelated. Furthermore, deep grassland soils primarily showed net SOC accrual relative to FRC input. Conversely, forests had high variability in whether FRC inputs were related to net SOC priming or accrual. We conclude that while FRC increases could lead to increased SOC in grasslands, especially at depth, the FRC-SOC relationship remains difficult to characterize in forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimating the value of jointly optimized electric power generation and end use: a study of ISO-scale load shaping applied to the residential building stock

A generation-to-load simulation estimated the impact, in terms of production costs and CO2 emissions, attributable to the joint optimization of electric power generation and flexible end uses to support increasing penetrations of renewable energy. Newly conceived, evaluated, and foundational in developing a U.S. National Standard was a transaction-less yet continuous demand response system based on a day-ahead optimum load shape (OLS) designed to encourage Internet-connected devices to autonomously and voluntarily explore options to favour lowest cost generators - without requiring two-way communications, personally identifiable information, or customer opt-in. Boundary conditions used for model calibration included historical weather, residential building stock construction attributes, home appliance and device empirical operating schedules, prototypical power distribution feeder models, thermal generator heat rates, startup and ramping constraints, and fuel costs. Results of an hourly-based annual case study of Texas indicate a 1/3 reduction in production costs and a 1/5 reduction in CO2 emissions are possible.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Deep in the Sierra Nevada critical zone: saprock represents a large terrestrial organic carbon stock

Large uncertainty remains in the spatial distribution of deep soil organic carbon (OC) storage and how climate controls belowground OC. This research aims to quantify OC stocks, characterize soil OC age and chemical composition, and evaluate climatic impacts on OC storage from the soil surface through the deep critical zone to bedrock. These objectives were carried out at four sites along a bio-climosequence in the Sierra Nevada, California. On average, 74% of OC was stored below the A horizon, and up to 30% of OC was stored in saprock (friable weakly weathered bedrock). Radiocarbon, spectroscopic, and isotopic analyses revealed the coexistence of very old organic matter (OM) (mean radiocarbon age = 20 300 years) with relatively recent OM (mean radiocarbon age = 4800 years) and highly decomposed organic compounds with relatively less decomposed material in deep soil and saprock. This co-mingling of OM suggests OC is prone to both active cycling and long-term protection from degradation. In addition to having direct effects on OC cycling, climate indirectly controls deep OC storage through its impact on the degree of regolith weathering (e.g. thickening). Although deep OC concentrations are low relative to soil, thick saprock represents a large, previously unrealized OC pool.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Comparison of linear regression, k-nearest neighbour and random forest methods in airborne laser-scanning-based prediction of growing stock

Abstract In this study, for five sites around the world, we look at the effects of different model types and variable selection approaches on forest yield modelling performances in an area-based approach (ABA). We compared ordinary least squares regression (OLS), k-nearest neighbours (kNN) and random forest (RF). Our objective was to test if there are systematic differences in accuracy between OLS, kNN and RF in ABA predictions of growing stock volume. The analyses are based on a 5-fold cross-validation at five study sites: an eucalyptus plantation, a temperate forest and three different boreal forests. Two completely independent validation datasets were also available for two of the boreal sites. For the kNN, we evaluated multiple measures of distance including Euclidean, Mahalanobis, most similar neighbour (MSN) and an RF-based distance metric. The variable selection approaches we examined included a heuristic approach (for OLS, kNN and RF), exhaustive search among all combinations (OLS only) and all variables together (RF only). Performances varied by model type and variable selection approaches among sites. OLS and RF had similar accuracies and were more efficient than any of the kNN variants. Variable selection did not affect RF performance. Heuristic and exhaustive variable selection performed similarly for OLS. kNN fared the poorest amongst model types, and kNN with RF distance was prone to overfitting when compared with a validation dataset. Additional caution is therefore required when building kNN models for volume prediction though ABA, being preferable instead to opt for models based on OLS with some variable selection, or RF with all variables together.

Cosenza, Diogo N.↗

Initial soil organic carbon stocks govern changes in soil carbon: Reality or artifact?

Abstract Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) storage have the potential to affect global climate; hence identifying environments with a high capacity to gain or lose SOC is of broad interest. Many cross‐site studies have found that SOC‐poor soils tend to gain or retain carbon more readily than SOC‐rich soils. While this pattern may partly reflect reality, here we argue that it can also be created by a pair of statistical artifacts. First, soils that appear SOC‐poor purely due to random variation will tend to yield more moderate SOC estimates upon resampling and hence will appear to accrue or retain more SOC than SOC‐rich soils. This phenomenon is an example of regression to the mean. Second, normalized metrics of SOC change—such as relative rates and response ratios—will by definition show larger changes in SOC at lower initial SOC levels, even when the absolute change in SOC does not depend on initial SOC. These two artifacts create an exaggerated impression that initial SOC stocks are a major control on SOC dynamics. To address this problem, we recommend applying statistical corrections to eliminate the effect of regression to the mean, and avoiding normalized metrics when testing relationships between SOC change and initial SOC. Careful consideration of these issues in future cross‐site studies will support clearer scientific inference that can better inform environmental management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multifamily Building Stock Modeling: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-17-00701

U.S. multifamily buildings house 35 million households, consuming 4 quads of source energy and spending $48 billion on utility bills every year. Almost all of these households live in urban areas, where cities are taking the lead on setting aggressive energy goals. Cities currently do not have the data and tools necessary to identify and target opportunities to save energy in their building stock. Building on the open-source, OpenStudio-based ResStock platform, this project will extend the publicly-available ResStock modeling capabilities to the multifamily sector, enabling Radiant Labs, and others, to partner with cities to market and strategically deploy cost-effective, energy efficiency (EE) upgrades directly to high-priority households. Radiant Labs has been successful in using ResStock's single-family capabilities to provide value to the City of Boulder, Colorado. However, lack of multifamily capabilities in ResStock is a roadblock for Radiant Labs working with New York City, San Francisco, Washington, D.C., and other cities that have expressed significant interest in working with them. In addition, other cities, companies, and utilities can use these open-source capabilities to grow their EE portfolios, thereby multiplying the impact of this project. This work also enables national-scale analysis of EE potential in multifamily buildings, which is of strong interest to a variety of stakeholders, including the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis (EPSA), DOE Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP), U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), and the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Using Open Data to Characterize Building Stock Trends for Energy and Equity Evaluation

This project provides a methodology for retrieving data from both existing public data and municipal open data sets to characterize changes in the building stock, socioeconomic, demographic, and climate indicators at a neighborhood scale. This methodology forms the basis for a geospatial dashboard to analyze and share the data. The developed methodology may be used to collect data for further energy equity analyses. Additional data sets, such as from other municipalities, may be incorporated in the future to expand the extents of the possible analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Understanding Commercial Building Energy Use in Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and Sioux Falls: Building Stock Segmentation for Retrofit Planning

This report is part of the second phase of a publication series focusing on approximately 100 different local geographies, or "clusters." Each report provides characteristic features and energy data for commercial buildings in a specific area to help policy makers at the city, county, and state level better understand building energy use and emissions. This report breaks down the energy consumption and emissions of the building stock in the counties shown in Figure 2 by building type, building size, end use, energy consumption, emissions, and segment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Understanding Commercial Building Energy Use in the Greater Little Rock Area: Building Stock Segmentation for Retrofit Planning

This report is part of the second phase of a publication series focusing on approximately 100 different local geographies, or "clusters." Each report provides characteristic features and energy data for commercial buildings in a specific area to help policy makers at the city, county, and state level better understand building energy use and emissions. This report breaks down the energy consumption and emissions of the building stock in the counties shown in Figure 2 by building type, building size, end use, energy consumption, emissions, and segment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Understanding Commercial Building Energy Use in Northwestern PA, Ashtabulam, and Chautauqua Counties: Building Stock Segmentation for Retrofit Planning

This report is part of the second phase of a publication series focusing on approximately 100 different local geographies, or "clusters." Each report provides characteristic features and energy data for commercial buildings in a specific area to help policy makers at the city, county, and state level better understand building energy use and emissions. This report breaks down the energy consumption and emissions of the building stock in the counties shown in Figure 2 by building type, building size, end use, energy consumption, emissions, and segment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Understanding Commercial Building Energy Use in the Evansville and Shawnee National Forest Area: Building Stock Segmentation for Retrofit Planning

This report is part of the second phase of a publication series focusing on approximately 100 different local geographies, or "clusters." Each report provides characteristic features and energy data for commercial buildings in a specific area to help policy makers at the city, county, and state level better understand building energy use and emissions. This report breaks down the energy consumption and emissions of the building stock in the counties shown in Figure 2 by building type, building size, end use, energy consumption, emissions, and segment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Understanding Commercial Building Energy Use in the Rural Eastern Climate Zone 5A Area: Building Stock Segmentation for Retrofit Planning

This report is part of the second phase of a publication series focusing on approximately 100 different local geographies, or "clusters." Each report provides characteristic features and energy data for commercial buildings in a specific area to help policy makers at the city, county, and state level better understand building energy use and emissions. This report breaks down the energy consumption and emissions of the building stock in the counties shown in Figure 2 by building type, building size, end use, energy consumption, emissions, and segment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Understanding Commercial Building Energy Use in Las Vegas: Building Stock Segmentation for Retrofit Planning

This report is part of the second phase of a publication series focusing on approximately 100 different local geographies, or "clusters." Each report provides characteristic features and energy data for commercial buildings in a specific area to help policy makers at the city, county, and state level better understand building energy use and emissions. This report breaks down the energy consumption and emissions of the building stock in the counties shown in Figure 2 by building type, building size, end use, energy consumption, emissions, and segment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Understanding Commercial Building Energy Use in Eau Claire, La Crosse, Rochester, and Wausau: Building Stock Segmentation for Retrofit Planning

This report is part of the second phase of a publication series focusing on approximately 100 different local geographies, or "clusters." Each report provides characteristic features and energy data for commercial buildings in a specific area to help policy makers at the city, county, and state level better understand building energy use and emissions. This report breaks down the energy consumption and emissions of the building stock in the counties shown in Figure 2 by building type, building size, end use, energy consumption, emissions, and segment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Understanding Commercial Building Energy Use in Boise-Twin Falls: Building Stock Segmentation for Retrofit Planning

This report is part of the second phase of a publication series focusing on approximately 100 different local geographies, or "clusters." Each report provides characteristic features and energy data for commercial buildings in a specific area to help policy makers at the city, county, and state level better understand building energy use and emissions. This report breaks down the energy consumption and emissions of the building stock in the counties shown in Figure 2 by building type, building size, end use, energy consumption, emissions, and segment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗