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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Soil Moisture Buffers the Impact of Precipitation Variability on Ecosystem Productivity

Water availability governs ecosystem productivity, yet estimates of vegetation sensitivity to water can differ greatly depending on whether the sensitivity is examined spatially or temporally. In particular, the spatial sensitivity is often reported to be much stronger than temporal sensitivities, leading to highly uncertain projections of ecosystem responses to future climate change when using space-for-time substitution. The large difference between spatial and temporal sensitivities remains unexplained. Prior research, however, primarily relied on precipitation as the water availability proxy, whereas vegetation responds to soil moisture. Here, we combined satellite estimates of vegetation productivity with soil moisture data across water-limited ecosystems of the continental United States (CONUS) to identify a convergent sensitivity of productivity to water availability. Using precipitation, we show that temporal sensitivity is 66% lower than spatial sensitivity overall. Our analysis identified the cause of the difference to be primarily driven by the seasonal variability of water availability, rooting depth, and soil properties. When using soil moisture instead of precipitation, we observed widespread convergence in the spatial and temporal sensitivities—that is, the two sensitivities became much more similar in magnitude across all water-limited ecosystems within CONUS. These results show that overlooking soil hydrology can inflate perceived discrepancies between spatial and temporal vegetation sensitivities, leading to biased projections of ecosystem dynamics under future hydro-climatic change.

Wang, Huiqi [University of California, Berkeley, C↗
DOE OSTI2025

Radioisotope Identification with List-Mode Gamma-Ray Data

This work explores the potential of utilizing temporal data from gamma-ray detectors, known as list-mode data, to enhance radioisotope identification. Traditional identification methods, which rely on full gamma-ray spectrum analysis, often require long dwell times and struggle with spectra containing similarly spaced spectral peaks. We hypothesize that by leveraging the probabilistic nature of nuclear decay and the time-encoded information from decay sequences and interactions with surrounding materials, we can improve classification accuracy over static spectral analysis. This research examines the temporal content of list-mode data through exploratory data analysis via correlation discovery and qualitative distribution analysis. Additionally, we propose a probabilistic classification model that can utilize spectral data, temporal data, or both to determine if the incorporation of temporal information improves radioisotope identification. Our findings suggest that the temporal information present in list-mode gamma-ray data has merit and should be further investigated to develop more robust and optimal methods for utilizing this temporal information in applications requiring radioisotope identification.

List-mode data↗
DOE OSTI2026

Daily, 30 m Resolution NDSI Data for the East River Watershed, CO for 2000-2020

This dataset contains daily Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) values at 30 m spatial resolution for the East River watershed in Colorado, USA. The temporal range of these data includes water years 2001-2020. These data were created using the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM). This model fuses low spatial and high temporal resolution data from MODIS (500 m, daily) with high spatial and low temporal resolution data from Landsat (30 m, 16 days) to create a 30m synthetic daily snow product. This product allows for the analysis of historical snow covered area trends in the East River Watershed at fine spatiotemporal resolutions where it was not available previously. This research was performed as a part of the Department of Energy’s Subsurface Biogeochemical Research Program with the primary intent of better understanding the timing and spatial patterns of water delivery to the Critical Zone in mountain watersheds. Each .zip file contains one "water year" of data (October 1 - September 30; i.e., water year 2010 starts October 1, 2010 and ends September 30, 2011). Each zip file contains the following: STARFM daily Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) fusion data files in GeoTiff format with one layer for each day between Landsat data acquisition dates (i.e., for dates of Landsat acquisition, the Landsat image is included for that date). The study area is located in an area of Landsat path overlap, so Landsat dates acquisitions are every 7-9 days. Landsat NDSI files containing the high spatial (30m), low temporal (7-9 days due to Landsat path overlap) resolution data used as input to STARFM in GeoTiff format with one layer for each day. Dates for which no Landsat data were obtained are included as NoData layers. MODIS NDSI files containing the high temporal (daily), low spatial (500m) resolution data used as input to STARFM in GeoTiff format with one layer for each day. Please note the MODIS data were resampled to 30m pixels for input into the STARFM model. The data have a scale factor of 10,000 and a no data value of -32767. The projection of all datasets is WGS 84 (EPSG: 4326), which has a latitude/longitude based degree resolution of 0.0002694946 X 0.0002694946, and approximates to the 30 m spatial resolution mentioned above. The Layer Index files in .csv format. They contain information for each layer in the above GeoTiff files regarding the corresponding date for each layer, the fraction of pixels in the image that contain valid data (missing data is due to either cloud cover or poor data quality; these values are not percent snow cover). Dates of Landsat overpass are indicated in these files. If no Landsat data were able to be obtained due to cloud cover or lack of Landsat Tier 1 data available on Google Earth Engine, this is also noted.

EARTH SCIENCE > CRYOSPHERE > SNOW/ICE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Forest aboveground biomass estimation through integration of sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 time series: assessing models trained on GEDI and field inventory benchmarks

Accurate and spatially explicit forest Aboveground Biomass (AGB) mapping through remote sensing is critical for quantifying terrestrial carbon stocks and informing effective forest management strategies. However, AGB estimation in dense forests with complex terrain remains challenging due to satellite sensor signal saturation problem (saturation issue occurs in high biomass forests), structural complexity, and limited ground truth for calibration. This study presents a novel framework that integrates multi-temporal Sentinel-2 optical imagery, ALOS PALSAR-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and topographic variables with explainable Machine Learning to map AGB across mountainous forests within subtropical and temperate oceanic climate zones of Mexico. We evaluate the effects of temporal granularity and sensor synergy by comparing multiple temporal inputs and sensor configurations (Sentinel-2, PALSAR-2, and their fusion), and assess model performance using two reference datasets: NASA GEDI LiDAR-derived biomass and Mexico’s National Forest and Soil Inventory (INFyS). Our results showed that models trained on INFyS consistently outperformed those trained on GEDI, highlighting limitations in GEDI’s reliability in biomass estimates within this study region. Furthermore, the integration of Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 provided improved predictions compared to single-sensor models, particularly when combined with temporally explicit yearly statistics. The best-performing model, which was trained on INFyS data, and considered both Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 yearly statistics, as well as topographic variables, achieved an R2 of 0.64, RMSE of 51.10 Mg/ha, and relative RMSE (rRMSE) of 58.69%. Explainable ML analysis identified Sentinel-2 spectral indices and topographic features as key predictors, while PALSAR-2 metrics provided complementary information, partially mitigating saturation effects in high-biomass areas. Specifically, integrating both sensors substantially improved AGB estimation in high biomass forest (≥200 Mg/ha), yielding 98% gains over optical-only model, with resulting estimates exceeding GEDI L4B by 29% and ESA-CCI-BIOMASS by 174%. Terrain-stratified analysis indicated close agreement with GEDI in low-slope areas, with increasing divergence as slope steepness increased, while estimates remained consistently higher than ESA-CCI-BIOMASS across all slope classes. The proposed approach advances multi-sensor fusion and temporal feature engineering for AGB mapping using open-access satellite datasets, providing a scalable and reproducible framework for annual biomass monitoring in topographically complex mountainous forests. The resulting 25 m resolution biomass product has the potential to provide spatially detailed information for forest monitoring and may support applications in carbon accounting and forest management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Impact of Time-Aware Design Choices in ICS Anomaly Detection

Industrial control systems (ICS) remain vulnerable to increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks, yet evaluating anomaly detection models in these environments is challenging due to temporal dependencies, missing-not-at-random patterns, and extremely imbalanced datasets. These factors make common practices—especially random data splits and na¨ıve imputation— prone to severe temporal leakage, which can inflate reported performance and obscure real-world limitations. In this work, we systematically examine classical machine learning models, temporal deep learning architecture, and tensordecomposition– based methods on a gas-pipeline dataset using a fully temporally separated evaluation pipeline designed to mimic realistic deployment conditions. Our findings show that proper temporal handling and MNAR-aware preprocessing significantly alter the relative performance of popular anomaly-detection methods, providing practical guidance for designing reliable, leakage-resistant ICS intrusion-detection systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Amplified Mesoscale and Submesoscale Variability and Increased Concentration of Precipitation under Global Warming over Western North America

Abstract Cold-season precipitation statistics in simulations from the storm-resolving WRF Model at 6-km and 1-h resolution over western North America are analyzed. Pseudo–global warming future simulations for the 2041–80 period, constrained by GCMs under the RCP8.5 scenario, are compared to the 1981–2020 historical simulation. The analysis focuses on the dynamical properties of precipitation time series at subdaily scales and on the morphology of storms. The statistical distribution of precipitation intensities in each pixel of the simulation domain is characterized through nonparametric statistical indicators: frequency of wet hours, mean wet-hour precipitation intensity, and Gini coefficient as a measure of the temporal concentration of the precipitation volume. Additionally, the temporal and spatial Fourier power spectra of precipitation time series and precipitation fields are analyzed. The half-power period (HPP) and half-power wavelength (HPW) are defined as spectral measures of the characteristic scales of precipitation’s temporal and spatial patterns. The results show statistically significant increases in the mean wet-hour precipitation intensity and in the Gini coefficient in 99% of the pixels, indicating that the seasonal precipitation volume becomes more concentrated within a smaller number of hours with higher precipitation intensity. The statistics of change in the frequency of wet hours are more contrasted across the simulation domain. The changes are also reflected in the power spectra, which show the spatial and temporal variability increasing proportionally more with finer spatial and temporal scales and the HPW and HPP decreasing. These projected changes are expected to have consequences, not only in terms of hydrologic impacts but also in terms of the predictability of precipitation patterns. Significance Statement The precipitation characteristics of winter storms over the western United States and southwestern Canada are analyzed in future climate simulations for the 2041–80 period. As compared to present-day climate, the most intense parts of the storms are projected to produce a higher rainfall volume, with increased concentration over smaller areas and shorter time intervals. The propensity of rainfall intensity to vary rapidly over time will be enhanced in the future according to the simulations. These model predictions imply an increased risk of rapid flooding in small basins. They also suggest that predicting several hours ahead the time and location at which a storm will produce maximum rainfall may become more challenging in the future.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2026

Resilience Through Data-Driven, Intelligent Designed Control: A Formal Methods Approach

The PNNL and GTRI team developed a strategy to integrate temporal logic rule specification for detection of cyber-intrusion in the source code and control algorithms of CPS using advanced cyber-data. The GTRI team utilized its capabilities in rule synthesis and temporal logic specifications for software assurance and verification to detect and predict impact of cyber-intrusions and malware in the computational and control algorithms of cyber-physical systems. The team also developed a testing and verification approach that could be used to validate the suggested approach against a realistic use-case CPS showcasing improvements in system impact prediction performance. Temporal logic offers a compact expression of events in absolute and relative time and has a formalized translation to state machines. As such, temporal logic rules can feasibly be synthesized to any system as a rule engine, with the process being formally verified to be correct. The goal here is to utilize temporal logic rules to detect cyber-attacks and manipulations in the computational algorithms and provide real-time software assurance and verification guarantees.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design Choices in Anomaly Detection for Industrial Control Systems: Insights from Gas Pipeline Data

Industrial control systems (ICS) remain vulnerable to increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks, yet evaluating anomaly detection models in these environments is challenging due to temporal dependencies, missing-not-at-random patterns, and extremely imbalanced datasets. These factors make common practices—especially random data splits and naïve imputation—prone to severe temporal leakage, which can inflate reported performance and obscure real-world limitations. In this work, we systematically examine classical machine learning models, temporal deep learning architecture, and tensor-decomposition–based methods on a gas-pipeline dataset using a fully temporally separated evaluation pipeline designed to mimic realistic deployment conditions. Our findings show that proper temporal handling and MNAR-aware preprocessing significantly alter the relative performance of popular anomaly-detection methods, providing practical guidance for designing reliable, leakage-resistant ICS intrusion-detection systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-time inference and extrapolation with Time-Conditioned UNet: Applications in hypersonic flows, incompressible flows, and global temperature forecasting

Neural Operators are fast and accurate surrogates for nonlinear mappings between functional spaces within training domains. Extrapolation beyond the training domain remains a grand challenge across all application areas. We present Time-Conditioned UNet (TC-UNet) as an operator learning method to solve time-dependent PDEs continuously in time without any temporal discretization, including in extrapolation scenarios. TC-UNet incorporates the temporal evolution of the PDE into its architecture by combining a parameter conditioning approach with the attention mechanism from the Transformer architecture. After training, TC-UNet makes real-time inferences on an arbitrary temporal grid. We demonstrate its extrapolation capability on a climate problem by estimating the global temperature for several years and also for inviscid hypersonic flow around a double cone. We propose different training strategies involving temporal bundling and sub-sampling. We demonstrate performance improvements for several benchmarks, performing extrapolation for long time intervals and zero-shot super-resolution time.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution South American Wind Resource Data Downscaled with Generative Machine Learning Conditioned on Near-Surface Observations

High-resolution historical wind data was developed for the entirety of South America using the innovative Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r) machine learning framework. The publicly available Sup3rWind South America dataset represents a significant advancement in wind resource data generation, leveraging generative machine learning conditioned on near-surface observations from the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) to efficiently and accurately downscale coarse reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). This approach produces fine-scale, spatially and temporally coherent wind and meteorological fields hundreds of times more computationally efficient than traditional numerical weather modeling methods, enabling access to high-fidelity wind information across both continental and offshore regions. Sup3rWind South America builds on the earlier Sup3rWind Ukraine dataset through improvements in model architecture and outputs conditioned on near-surface observation inputs. As with the Ukraine data release, this dataset includes wind speed, wind direction, temperature, relative humidity, and pressure at a horizontal resolution of ~2 km, representing a 15x spatial enhancement relative to the 31 km ERA5 grid. Wind speed and direction are provided at 5-minute resolution, a 12x temporal refinement compared to the hourly ERA5 data, while temperature, relative humidity, and pressure remain at hourly resolution. The data covers all years from 2005 to 2024. Before downscaling, ERA5 inputs were bias-corrected using long-term monthly means and a limited number of quality-controlled observations to align large-scale statistics with regional conditions. The resulting dataset is the first publicly available high-resolution timeseries wind record that provides full spatial coverage of South America. Model validation demonstrates strong agreement with observations across several statistical metrics, consistent with other state-of-the-art high-resolution wind resource datasets. The potential applications of Sup3rWind South America span renewable energy resource assessment, energy system modeling, and grid resilience analysis. The 20-year record and high spatial and temporal resolution support accurate estimation of long-term energy yield and the economic feasibility of potential wind development sites. Continuous coverage across both continental and offshore regions enables comprehensive site prospecting within exclusive economic zones. The 2 km, 5-minute resolution data provide the spatial and temporal variability required for power system simulation, operational planning, and regional risk assessments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Informing Robust Functional Relationship Benchmarks: An Evaluation of the Temperature Sensitivity of Ecosystem Respiration Across the Arctic-Boreal Region

During land model development, simulated carbon dynamics are often benchmarked against observational data sets to evaluate model performance. Functional relationship benchmarks are the relationship between a driving variable (e.g., temperature) and a response variable (e.g., ecosystem respiration) and are a promising tool for assessing model performance by evaluating modeled sensitivities to changing environmental conditions. However, observed functional relationships can be influenced by choices made during data collection and throughout the benchmarking process, impacting the inferred skill of land models. To avoid misrepresenting a model's true performance, it is necessary to systematically evaluate best practices when constructing functional relationship benchmarks. We developed a set of guidelines for constructing functional relationship benchmarks, considering the choice of data set, number of daily observations, temporal extent, and temporal resolution across Alaska and Canada over a 20-year period from 2001 to 2020. The temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration from observations, evaluated through an apparent Q 10 , is highly variable both spatially and as a result of the data processing approach applied in the benchmark formation. When benchmarking 13 models from the Warming Permafrost Model Intercomparison Project (WrPMIP), the range in inferred model skill is substantially impacted by the choices applied in constructing functional relationship benchmarks. The inferred performance of a given model is most sensitive to the number of daily observations and temporal extent, followed by choice of benchmark data set and temporal averaging. Results from this analysis can guide the development of consistent and robust functional relationships for future model evaluation studies.

Poe, Jeralyn [Northern Arizona University, Flagsta↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient laser-driven proton acceleration from a petawatt contrast-enhanced second harmonic mixed-glass laser system

Efficient laser-driven plasma acceleration of ion beams requires precision control of the target–plasma profile, which is crucial to optimize the laser energy transfer. Along the laser propagation direction, this can be achieved by tailoring the temporal structure of the laser pulse. We show for the first time that frequency-doubling of a short pulse (hundreds-femtosecond range) petawatt-class mixed-glass laser system, which results in temporal intensity contrast enhancement, enables surface and volumetric laser–energy coupling, and the acceleration of proton beams from few-nanometer-thick foil targets. Experimentally, maximum ion energies and laser-to-proton energy conversion efficiencies were found to be both maximized at optimum laser and target conditions manifested when the normalized target density nearly equalizes the normalized laser vector potential, which is in agreement with theory and simulations. These signatures are recognized as a unique indication of the interaction between ultra-intense laser pulses with high temporal intensity contrast and ultra-thin nanometer-scale targets. Transverse modulations of accelerated proton beams in the form of bubble- and ring-like structures measured in the thinnest targets provide additional evidence of volumetric laser-driven particle acceleration regimes and transitional features in ultra-thin foil targets specific to laser–plasma interactions characterized by a high temporal intensity contrast. These results open avenues in the generation of high contrast laser pulses from short-pulse-femtosecond petawatt mixed-glass laser systems and demonstrate the feasibility of this technique for applications requiring high laser intensity contrast with high efficiency.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Seasonal changes in occupancy and activity patterns in native Collared Peccary and non-native wild pig and Common Warthog in southern Texas, the United States

Abstract Southern Texas, USA, is home to native collared peccaries (Dicotyles tajacu) and introduced populations of invasive wild pigs (generally Sus scrofa × domesticus hybrids) and non-native African warthogs (Phacochoerus africanus). Although these ecologically similar mammals co-occur in this region, the potential impacts of invasive suids on collared peccaries are poorly understood. We examined co-occupancy and activity pattern overlap of collared peccaries, wild pigs, and warthogs across 3 seasons (fall, winter, and spring) using remote camera data collected from Chaparral Wildlife Management Area, Cotulla, Texas (November 2020 to June 2021). Using activity pattern analyses and single and 2-species occupancy models incorporating habitat and climate characteristics, we found evidence of extensive spatial overlap between all species pairs and varying degrees of temporal overlap depending on species pairs and season. Collared peccaries and wild pigs displayed moderate temporal overlap across all seasons. Collared peccaries appeared to alter fall activity in the presence of wild pigs to be active earlier in the morning and less active during the day. Collared peccaries and warthogs had low-to-moderate temporal overlap (low in fall, winter; moderate in spring). Wild pigs and warthogs had low temporal overlap (fall, spring) and wild pigs appeared to alter activity in the presence of warthogs (fall), becoming less active during the day during peak warthog activity. Overall, our results suggest that peccary, wild pig, and warthog interactions and activity are dynamic and vary seasonally according to the ecology and preferred environmental conditions of each species. Given the potential for interspecific competition and disease transmission with Collared Peccary and other native wildlife, resource partitioning between wild pigs and warthogs needs to be further examined to aid in effective management strategies.

Kupferman, Caitlin A. (ORCID:0009000953554860)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interpretable Models for Workflow Differentiation in High-Performance Scientific Networks

Scientific workflows in high-performance networks spawn hundreds of interdependent flows that must be managed collectively—yet existing network classifiers treat each flow in isolation, leading to fragmented QoS decisions and missed interflow patterns. We present a novel traffic classification solution that operates at the workflow level, distinguishing entire filetransfer operations from streaming analytics by capturing how concurrent flows interact and burst together. We introduce a workflow identification window (WIW) that ingests raw packet headers from parallel flows into unified tensors, preserving the spatial-temporal patterns that differentiate scientific workflows. This approach achieves 98.7% accuracy using CNN, LSTM, and hybrid architectures, while maintaining 84% accuracy on production traffic collected a week later—demonstrating robustness to temporal drift. By integrating SHAP and GradCAM explainability, we reveal that early-packet timing patterns and cross-flow correlations drive classification decisions, providing operators with interpretable insights. Our system enables coherent workflow-level QoS enforcement and dynamic bandwidth allocation in scientific networks, eliminating manual per-flow configuration while maintaining classification latency at millisecond level.

Giannakou, Anna [LBL, Berkeley]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Time series methods for the analysis of soundscapes and other cyclical ecological data

Biodiversity monitoring has entered an era of ‘big data’, exemplified by a near-continuous collection of sounds, images, chemical and other signals from organisms in diverse ecosystems. Such data streams have the potential to help identify new threats, assess the effectiveness of conservation interventions, as well as generate new ecological insights. However, appropriate analytical methods are often still missing, particularly with respect to characterizing cyclical temporal patterns. Here, we present a framework for characterizing and analysing ecological responses that represent nonstationary, complex temporal patterns and demonstrate the value of using Fourier transforms to decorrelate continuous data points. In our example, we use a framework based on three approaches (spectral analysis, magnitude squared coherence, and principal component analysis) to characterize differences in tropical forest soundscapes within and across sites and seasons in Gabon. By reconstructing the underlying, cyclic behaviour of the soundscape for each site, we show how one can identify circadian patterns in acoustic activity. Soundscapes in the dry season had a complex diel cycle, requiring multiple harmonics to represent daily variation, while in the wet season there was less variance attributable to the daily cyclic patterns. Our framework can be applied to most continuous, or near-continuous ecological data collected at a fine temporal resolution, allowing ecologists to explore patterns of temporal autocorrelation at multiple levels for biologically meaningful trends. Such methods will become indispensable as biological big data are used to understand the impact of anthropogenic pressures on biodiversity and to inform efforts to mitigate them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cyanobacterial circadian regulation enhances bioproduction under subjective nighttime through rewiring of carbon partitioning dynamics, redox balance orchestration, and cell cycle modulation

Abstract Background The industrial feasibility of photosynthetic bioproduction using cyanobacterial platforms remains challenging due to insufficient yields, particularly due to competition between product formation and cellular carbon demands across different temporal phases of growth. This study investigates how circadian clock regulation impacts carbon partitioning between storage, growth, and product synthesis in Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942, and provides insights that suggest potential strategies for enhanced bioproduction. Results After entrainment to light-dark cycles, PCC 7942 cultures transitioned to constant light revealed distinct temporal patterns in sucrose production, exhibiting three-fold higher productivity during subjective night compared to subjective day despite moderate down-regulation of genes from the photosynthetic apparatus. This enhanced productivity coincided with reduced glycogen accumulation and halted cell division at subjective night time, suggesting temporal separation of competing processes. Transcriptome analysis revealed coordinated circadian clock-driven adjustment of the cell cycle and rewiring of energy and carbon metabolism, with over 300 genes showing differential expression across four time points. The subjective night was characterized by altered expression of cell division-related genes and reduced expression of genes involved in glycogen synthesis, while showing upregulation of glycogen degradation pathways, alternative electron flow components, the pentose phosphate pathway, and oxidative decarboxylation of pyruvate. These molecular changes created favorable conditions for product formation through enhanced availability of major sucrose precursors (glucose-1-phosphate and fructose-6-phosphate) and maintained redox balance through multiple mechanisms. Conclusions Our analysis of circadian regulatory rewiring of carbon metabolism and redox balancing suggests two potential approaches that could be developed for improving cyanobacterial bioproduction: leveraging natural circadian rhythms for optimizing cultivation conditions and timing of pathway induction, and engineering strains that mimic circadian-driven metabolic shifts through controlled carbon flux redistribution and redox rebalancing. While these strategies remain to be tested, they could theoretically improve the efficiency of photosynthetic bioproduction by enabling better temporal separation between cell growth, carbon storage accumulation, and product synthesis phases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for A Hybrid Biophysical-Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

AI/ML↗
DOE OSTI2024

Gridded Sub-daily Climate Forcings for North America Based on Daymet and GSWP3 (Daymet-GSWP3)

To support high spatial and temporal resolution land surface modeling, this dataset provides 3-hourly time step historic weather forcing at 1-km spatial resolution for the entire North America. The latest Daymet V4 data provides gridded historic daily weather observations at 1-km spatial resolution from 1980 to 2014. Using sub-daily temporal information from the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 3 (GSWP3), Daymet was further temporally downscaled to 3-hourly time steps and provided in the format required for land surface model simulations. The process of temporal downscaling preserves the relative magnitude in each sub-daily time step from GSWP3 while maintaining the total and average values from Daymet for each day. This results in a blended 1980-2014 Daymet-GSWP3 dataset. Available variables include surface air temperature, precipitation, specific humidity, shortwave and longwave radiation, wind speed, and pressure. These data can be used as a high-resolution meteorological forcing dataset to support high-resolution land surface modeling where accurate meteorological forcing datasets built from historic observations and/or reanalysis datasets are desirable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗