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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Security assessment and impact analysis of cyberattacks in integrated T&D power systems

In this paper, we examine the impact of cyberattacks in an integrated transmission and distribution (T&D) power grid model with distributed energy resource (DER) integration. We adopt the OCTAVE Allegro methodology to identify critical system assets, enumerate potential threats, analyze and prioritize risks for threat scenarios. Based on the analysis, attack strategies and exploitation scenarios are identified which could lead to system compromise. Specifically, we investigate the impact of data integrity attacks in inverted-based solar PV controllers, control signal blocking attacks in protective switches and breakers, and coordinated monitoring and switching time-delay attacks. Index Terms—Cyberattacks, security assessment, impact analysis, case studies, integrated power systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Mathematical Framework for Representing Cyber-Physical System Interdependencies and Resilience

U.S. critical infrastructure is increasingly composed of integrated cyber-physical systems (CPS) whose components are operationally interdependent. These interdependencies can create additional vulnerabilities beyond those that are typically evaluated through independent physical and cyber risk assessments. These additional vulnerabilities, previously undetected at the sub-system and/or component level, could cause cascading effects across both the physical and cyber domains that could lead to infrastructure disruption or failure. This paper will review an initial mathematical framework developed to help understand the dynamics of these interfacing physical and cyber components at a holistic system level. The resulting framework also provides a method for modeling and assessing the resilience of CPS in complex and adaptive systems. It frames the system in terms of mission performance and the potential effects to performance caused by attacks that are cyber, physical, or blended in nature. The framework utilizes a systems-based, state-space modeling approach to reason about risk, resilience, and interdependencies in CPS. Probabilities are applied to each CPS component regarding a threat (both man-made and natural) and the likelihood of that particular component being impacted, along with indirect impact to other interdependent components. These component-level impacts from threats then translate into mission-level impact and systemic state change.

Brigantic, Robert T.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Internship Presentation: Integrating Safety and Cybersecurity: Security-by-Design with SOWT Analysis for Reactor Testing

This study covers leveraging reactor testing facilities that are primarily designed with a focus on safety to enhance cybersecurity testing. By incorporating reactor security-by-design with reactor safety-by-design principles and adopting defense-in-depth strategies that emphasize both safety and security, the research evaluates applicable cyber tools, models, and solutions. This includes simulating specific cyber-attack scenarios using reactor simulators and performing SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis to improve the cybersecurity of reactor systems.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Machine Learning-Based Predictive Models of the Nutrient Loads Delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico

Predicting nutrient loads is essential to understanding and managing one of the environmental issues faced by the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone, which poses a severe threat to the Gulf’s healthy ecosystem and economy. The development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico is strongly associated with the eutrophication process initiated by excessive nutrient loads. Due to the complexities in the excessive nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, it is challenging to understand and predict the underlying temporal variation of nutrient loads. The study was aimed at identifying an optimal predictive machine learning model to capture and predict nonlinear behavior of the nutrient loads delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) to the Gulf of Mexico. For this purpose, monthly nutrient loads (N and P) in tons were collected from US Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring station 07373420 from 1980 to 2020. Machine learning models—including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), gaussian process regression (GPR), single-layer multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a long short-term memory (LSTM) with the single hidden layer—were developed to predict the monthly nutrient loads, and model performances were evaluated by standard assessment metrics—Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation Coefficient (R). The residuals of predictive models were examined by the Durbin–Watson statistic. The results showed that MLP and LSTM persistently achieved better accuracy in predicting monthly TN and TP loads compared to GPR and ARIMA. In addition, GPR models achieved slightly better test RMSE score than ARIMA models while their correlation coefficients are much lower than ARIMA models. Moreover, MLP performed slightly better than LSTM in predicting monthly TP loads while LSTM slightly outperformed for TN loads. Furthermore, it was found that the optimizer and number of inputs didn’t show effects on the LSTM performance while they exhibited impacts on MLP outcomes. This study explores the capability of machine learning models to accurately predict nonlinearly fluctuating nutrient loads delivered to the Gulf of Mexico. Further efforts focus on improving the accuracy of forecasting using hybrid models which combine several machine learning models with superior predictive performance for nutrient fluxes throughout the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interpretable Data-Driven Probabilistic Power System Load Margin Assessment with Uncertain Renewable Energy and Loads

The increasing uncertainties caused by the high-penetration of stochastic renewable generation resources poses a significant threat to the power system voltage stability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic deep kernel learning enabled surrogate model to extract the hidden relationship between uncertain sources, i.e., wind power and loads, and load margin for probabilistic load margin assessment (PLMA). Unlike other deep learning approaches, a kernel SHAP provides the sensitivity analysis as well as interpretability of the inputs to outputs influences. This allows identifying the critical factors that affect load margin so that corrective control can be initiated for stability enhancement. Numerical results carried out on the IEEE 118-bus power system demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed data-driven PLMA scheme.

deep kernel learning↗
DOE OSTI2022

Power System Resilience Evaluation Framework and Metric Review: Preprint

Power system resilience is an emerging hot topic in recent years to study the increasing threats of extreme events such as natural disasters, severe weather, and cyberattacks. Although many research works have been done to define, model, and quantify resilience from different aspects, the lack of universally accepted resilience metrics and evaluation methods makes it difficult to assess and compare resilience across different power systems like what is typically done in power system reliability studies. In this paper, we first review the definitions of resilience and summarized two core concepts shared by most literature. On top of that, we conduct a thorough review of resilience metrics and develop a new framework to assess power system resilience from two perspectives, i.e., pre-event estimation and post-event evaluation, to capture system resilience performance in both general and specific fashions. Existing resilience metrics are summarized and categorized using the proposed framework, where recommendations are also proposed to capture core concepts of resilience.

power system resilience↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Multilayer Network Models to Build a Scientific Basis for Integrated Deterrence: Final Report

The emerging multipolar international security environment represents a fundamental restructuring of global nuclear balance of power to include two nuclear peer competitors, growing non-peer nuclear threats, and concerns of nuclear latency from both allies and adversaries. Conflicts in the grey zone, cyber operations, mis- and disinformation campaigns, and emerging disruptive technologies like drones, and hypersonic missiles are becoming more prevalent. These present a risk of cross-domain and multi-domain conflicts that may not follow known escalatory patterns. In order to prepare for the new deterrence environment, it is critical to have quantitative and qualitative understandings of these cross-domain conflicts, their potential for escalation, and which systems they may impact. To that end, our team created a Multi-Layer Network (MLN) model of ‘integrated deterrence’ where instruments of national power are modeled as individual network graph layers that include efforts from all domains. We then evaluate the potential for escalation against escalation scenarios. Analysis of the escalation scenarios is then used to identify insights of potential risk and escalation within integrated deterrence.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2024

Delayed coastal inundations caused by ocean dynamics post-Hurricane Matthew

Post Hurricane Abnormal Water Level (PHAWL) poses a persistent inundation threat to coastal communities, yet unresolved knowledge gaps exist regarding its spatiotemporal impacts and causal mechanisms. Using a high-resolution coastal model with a set of observations, we find that the PHAWLs are up to 50 cm higher than the normal water levels for several weeks and cause delayed inundations around residential areas of the U.S. Southeast Coast (USSC). Numerical experiments reveal that while atmospheric forcing modulates the coastal PHAWLs, ocean dynamics primarily driven by the Gulf Stream control the mean component and duration of the shelf-scale PHAWLs. Because of the large spatial impact of the post-hurricane oceanic forcing, the coastal hazards are not limited to a direct hit from a hurricane but can be detected throughout the USSC where the oceanic processes reach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Landscape fragmentation overturns classical metapopulation thinking

Habitat loss and isolation caused by landscape fragmentation represent a growing threat to global biodiversity. Existing theory suggests that the process will lead to a decline in metapopulation viability. However, since most metapopulation models are restricted to simple networks of discrete habitat patches, the effects of real landscape fragmentation, particularly in stochastic environments, are not well understood. To close this major gap in ecological theory, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model applicable to realistic landscape structures, bridging metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology. This model reproduced classical metapopulation dynamics under conventional model assumptions, but on fragmented landscapes, it uncovered general dynamics that are in stark contradiction to the prevailing views in the ecological and conservation literature. Notably, fragmentation can give rise to a series of dualities: a) positive and negative responses to environmental noise, b) relative slowdown and acceleration in density decline, and c) synchronization and desynchronization of local population dynamics. Furthermore, counter to common intuition, species that interact locally (“residents”) were often more resilient to fragmentation than long-ranging “migrants.” This set of findings signals a need to fundamentally reconsider our approach to ecosystem management in a noisy and fragmented world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensor and Actuator Attacks on Hierarchical Control Systems with Domain-Aware Operator Theory

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) provide opportunities for cyber attacks to have physical impacts. Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs) are a subclass of cyber threats that act stealthily to avoid detection and enable long-term attacks. Here, we build on our past work in APT modelling to combine deception-based sensor bias attacks and direct actuator manipulations in attacks against a hierarchical control system. That past work used the Koopman operator to develop a data-driven, domain-aware, optimization-based attacker model. Using an expansion of this model, we compute several different attacks, including multiple simultaneous attacks, against a high-fidelity commercial building emulator and compare the impacts of those attacks to each other. One next step of interest is to construct a defender system, built on the same modelling approach, designed to detect and mitigate such attacks.

koopman operator, Cyber-Physical Security, machine↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimization of a Lethal, Combat-Relevant Model of Sterile Inflammation in Mice for Drug Candidate Screening

ABSTRACT Introduction Extensive trauma, commonly seen in wounded military Service Members, often leads to a severe sterile inflammation termed systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), which can progress to multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) and death. MODS is a serious threat to wounded Service Members, historically causing 10% of all deaths in trauma admissions at a forward deployed combat hospital. The importance of this problem will be exacerbated in large-scale combat operations, in which evacuation will be delayed and care of complex injuries at lower echelons of care may be prolonged. The main goal of this study was to optimize an existing mouse model of lethal SIRS/MODS as a therapeutic screening platform for the evaluation of immunomodulatory drugs. Materials and Methods Male C57BL/6 mice were euthanized, and the bones and muscles were collected and blended into a paste termed tissue–bone matrix (TBX). The TBX at 12.5%–20% relative to body weight of each recipient mouse was implanted into subcutaneous pouches created on the dorsum of anesthetized animals. Mice were observed for clinical scores for up to 48 hours postimplantation and euthanized at the preset point of moribundity. To test effects of anesthetics on TBX-induced mortality, animals received isoflurane or ketamine/xylazine (K/X). In a separate set of studies, mice received TBX followed by intraperitoneal injection with 20 mg/kg or 40 mg/kg Eritoran or a placebo carrier. All Eritoran studies were performed in a blinded fashion. Results We observed that K/X anesthesia significantly increased the lethality of the implanted TBX in comparison to inhaled anesthetics. Although all the mice anesthetized with isoflurane and implanted with 12.5% TBX survived for 24 hours, 60% of mice anesthetized with K/X were moribund by 24 hours postimplantation. To mimic more closely the timing of lethal SIRS/MODS following polytrauma in human patients, we extended observation to 48 hours. We performed TBX dose–response studies and found that as low as 15%, 17.5%, and 20% TBX caused moribundity/mortality in 50%, 80%, and 100% mice, respectively, over a 48-hour time period. With 17.5% TBX, we tested if moribundity/mortality could be rescued by anti-inflammatory drug Eritoran, a toll-like receptor 4 antagonist. Neither 20 mg/kg nor 40 mg/kg doses of Eritoran were found to be effective in this model. Conclusions We optimized a TBX mouse model of SIRS/MODS for the purpose of evaluating novel therapeutic interventions to prevent trauma-related pathophysiologies in wounded Service Members. Negative effects of K/X on lethality of TBX should be further evaluated, particularly in the light of widespread use of ketamine in treatment of pain. By mimicking muscle crush, bone fracture, and necrosis, the TBX model has pleiotropic effects on physiology and immunology that make it uniquely valuable as a screening tool for the evaluation of novel therapeutics against trauma-induced SIRS/MODS.

General & Internal Medicine↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adapting Existing Energy Models for Resilience Analysis

Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result of the growing interest in energy sector resilience, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate resilience indicators and metrics, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. A necessary focus of the research community lies in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing these challenges that need to be addressed, we explore how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes—including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences—based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches. To demonstrate the importance of perspective, we selected models that represent different segments of the energy sector, geographic scales, and modeling approaches. A second important aspect of our effort was the development of generalized power interruption scenarios. These scenarios were intended to help establish a framework for simulating the effects of real-world threats in terms of their impacts on system components and, in turn, power interruption.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Experimental and Modeled Assessment of Interventions to Reduce PM2.5 in a Residence during a Wildfire Event

Increasingly large and frequent wildfires affect air quality even indoors by emitting and dispersing fine/ultrafine particulate matter known to pose health risks to residents. With this health threat, we are working to help the building science community develop simplified tools that may be used to estimate impacts to large numbers of homes based on high-level housing characteristics. In addition to reviewing literature sources, we performed an experiment to evaluate interventions to mitigate degraded indoor air quality. We instrumented one residence for one week during an extreme wildfire event in the Pacific Northwest. Outdoor ambient concentrations of PM2.5 reached historic levels, sustained at over 200 μg/m3 for multiple days. Outdoor and indoor PM2.5 were monitored, and data regarding building characteristics, infiltration, and mechanical system operation were gathered to be consistent with the type of information commonly known for residential energy models. Two conditions were studied: a high-capture minimum efficiency rated value (MERV 13) filter integrated into a central forced air (CFA) system, and a CFA with MERV 13 filtration operating with a portable air cleaner (PAC). With intermittent CFA operation and no PAC, indoor corrected concentrations of PM2.5 reached 280 μg/m3, and indoor/outdoor (I/O) ratios reached a mean of 0.55. The measured I/O ratio was reduced to a mean of 0.22 when both intermittent CFA and the PAC were in operation. Data gathered from the test home were used in a modeling exercise to assess expected I/O ratios from both interventions. The mean modeled I/O ratio for the CFA with an MERV 13 filter was 0.48, and 0.28 when the PAC was added. The model overpredicted the MERV 13 performance and underpredicted the CFA with an MERV 13 filter plus a PAC, though both conditions were predicted within 0.15 standard deviation. The results illustrate the ways that models can be used to estimate indoor PM2.5 concentrations in residences during extreme wildfire smoke events.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive anomaly detection for identifying attacks in cyber-physical systems: A systematic literature review

Modern cyberattacks in cyber-physical systems (CPS) rapidly evolve and cannot be deterred effectively with most current methods, which focus on characterizing past threats. Adaptive anomaly detection (AAD) is among the most promising techniques to detect evolving cyberattacks, with an emphasis on fast data processing and model adaptation. AAD has been researched extensively; however, to the best of our knowledge, our work is the first systematic literature review (SLR) on current research in this field. We present a comprehensive SLR, gathering 397 relevant papers and systematically analyzing 65 of them (47 research and 18 survey papers) on AAD in CPS from 2013 to November 2023. We introduce a novel taxonomy considering attack types, CPS application, learning paradigm, data management, and algorithms. Our findings show that most studies addressed either model adaptation or data processing, but rarely both simultaneously. This indicates a research gap in fully adaptive solutions. We also categorize algorithms, datasets, and attack characteristics, and summarize strengths and weaknesses across the literature. Our review provides a structured and accessible reference for researchers and practitioners, offering insights into key trends and highlighting limitations in current approaches. Finally, we outline several future research directions, including the need for integrated real-time processing and adaptive learning, explainability, and uncertainty quantification in AAD for CPS.

Adaptation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Toward Quantifying Vulnerabilities in Critical Infrastructure Systems

Modern society is increasingly dependent on the stability of a complex system of interdependent infrastructure sectors. Vulnerability in critical infrastructures (CIs) is defined as a measure of system susceptibility to threat scenarios. Quantifying vulnerability in CIs has not been adequately addressed in the literature. This paper presents ongoing research on how the authors model CIs as network-based models and propose a set of metrics to quantify vulnerability in CI systems. The size and complexity of the CIs make this a challenging task. These metrics could be used for planning and efficient decision-making during extreme events.

Devineni, Pravallika↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hub and Spoke Modeling to support Agile Combat Employment

Here, the 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS) shifts focus primarily to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the pacing challenge, with acknowledgement of the other threats. President Joe Biden introduced the updated version by stating the U.S. is living in a decisive decade. While the country does not know when the next conflict will happen, leadership believes it will happen soon and the DoD is preparing for this eventuality in the Indo-Pacific region by rethinking operations and concepts. Traditionally, large, fixed installations have been the primary means of operating and generating airpower for the United States Air Force (USAF). Additionally, the service has the capabilities to establish contingency locations based on two primary criteria: a runway and a water source. However, policies and strategy must be updated to create a more agile and dispersed force.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust Model Predictive Control for Attack Mitigation of Virtual Synchronous Generators (VSGs) in an Islanded Microgrid

With the increasing application of power converters in distributed energy systems, power electronics converters face an increasing number of cyber-attacks. To mitigate the cyber-attack impact on voltage source converters (VSCs) and microgrids, a robust model predictive control (RMPC) is proposed for virtual synchronous generators (VSG) in an islanded microgrid. This RMPC is designed to compensate for the frequency deviations, thus maintaining frequency stability of the whole islanded microgrid against cyber threats. Finally, to verify the feasibility of the proposed method, comparisons between the proposed method and the conventional VSC controller are provided in different attack scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Carbon Cycle Extremes and Attributing Their Causes Under Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change From 1850 to 2300

The increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mole fraction affects global climate through radiative (trapping longwave radiation) and physiological effects (reduction of plant transpiration). We use the simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1-BGC) forced with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 to investigate climate-vegetation feedbacks from 1850 to the year 2300. Human-induced land use and land cover change (LULCC), through biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes, alter the climate and modify photosynthetic activity. The changing characteristics of extreme anomalies in photosynthesis, referred to as carbon cycle extremes, increase the uncertainty of terrestrial ecosystems to act as a net carbon sink. However, the role of LULCC in altering carbon cycle extremes under business-as-usual (continuously rising) CO 2 emissions is unknown. Here we show that LULCC magnifies the intensity, frequency, and extent of carbon cycle extremes, resulting in a net reduction in expected photosynthetic activity in the future. We found that large temporally contiguous negative carbon cycle extremes are due to a persistent decrease in soil moisture, which is triggered by declines in precipitation. With LULCC and global warming, vegetation exhibits increased vulnerability to hot and dry environmental conditions, increasing the frequency of fire events and resulting in considerable losses in photosynthetic activity. While most regions show strengthening of negative carbon cycle extremes, a few locations show a weakening effect driven by declining vegetation cover or benign climate conditions for photosynthesis. Increasing hot, dry, and fire-driven carbon cycle extremes are essential for improving carbon cycle modeling and estimation of ecosystem responses to LULCC and rising CO 2 mole fractions. Moreover, large aberrations in vegetation productivity represent potential and growing threats to human lives, wildlife, and food security.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗