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Atmospheric Tides Middle Atmosphere Program (ATMAP): Report of the workshop, Kyoto, Japan, December 5-6, 1984

Experimentalists, data analysts, and theoreticians were brought together to study and interpret the results of four solstice campaigns conducted prior to the symposium. Emphasis was placed on campaigns III and V. Topics discussed included: review of the data and evaluation of the consistency with available theoretical models; interpretation of the data; recommendations on how the Atmospheric Tides Middle Atmosphere Program (ATMAP) results should reach the open literature such that the advancement of middle atmosphere science and the proprietary rights of the individual experimenters are best served; and recommendations concerning future campaigns and the future emphasis of ATMAP.

Forbes, J. M.↗

Forecasting Multi-Step-Ahead Street-Scale Nuisance Flooding using a seq2seq LSTM Surrogate Model for Real-Time Application in a Coastal-Urban City

In coastal-urban cities facing an elevated risk of nuisance flooding (by rain and tide) due to increased heavy rainfall, sea level rise, urbanization, and aging drainage systems, real-time flood forecasting at the street-scale can provide useful information to transportation decision-makers. Physics-Based Models (PBMs) that offer high accuracy come with high computational runtimes and costs that limit their application for real-time flood forecasting. To address this challenge, Machine Learning (ML) surrogate models trained from PBMs have been proposed to provide street-scale flood forecasts. Previous related studies have focused on using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architectures to model hourly flood depth on streets. While LSTM models can capture input sequences effectively, they fall short in accurately preserving output sequences, limiting their suitability for multi-step-ahead forecasts. The seq2seq LSTM architecture offers a key advantage here by capturing the full sequence of input–output, making it potentially more suitable for multi-step-ahead flood forecasts compared to traditional LSTM models. However, seq2seq LSTM has not been tested for street-scale flood forecasting, particularly for rapidly fluctuating nuisance flooding events which require special attention to its temporal sequences. Hence, in this study, we applied the seq2seq LSTM model to explore multi-step-ahead street-scale nuisance flooding and compared its results to the traditional LSTM model as a benchmark model. LSTM and seq2seq LSTM surrogate models were applied to 22 flood-prone streets in Norfolk, Virginia, as a case study with a 4-hr (short-term) and 8-hr (long-term) lead time. The models were trained with environmental (rainfall and tide) and topographic (elevation, Topographic Wetness Index, and Depth-To-Water) features along with PBM-derived water depths for different storm events. The results demonstrated satisfactory performance of both LSTM and seq2seq LSTM surrogate models throughout the forecast period compared to the PBM. However, the seq2seq LSTM showed lower Mean Absolute Error (MAE)/ Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and higher Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE)/ correlation than the LSTM across most lead times, particularly for long-term forecasting due to its supremacy in handling both input–output sequences together, which is missing in the traditional LSTM. For example, in the long-term, the average RMSE ranges were 0.0268–0.0373 m for LSTM and 0.0226–0.0319 m for seq2seq LSTM, while in the short-term, they were 0.0263–0.0293 m and 0.0261–0.0283 m, respectively. Additionally, while both models exhibited similar performance in distinguishing flooded and non-flooded streets for flood depth ≥ 0.1 m, the seq2seq LSTM model demonstrated superior performance for higher flood depths (such as ≥ 0.2 m and ≥ 0.3 m). Once trained, inference took only 0.09 to 0.11 s (short-term) and 0.30 to 0.35 s (long-term) per storm event for the 22 streets, making the application highly suitable for real-time decision-making during nuisance flood events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Diurnal tide in the Martian atmosphere

Classical atmospheric tidal theory is extended to include the effects of large-amplitude planetary-scale variations of the terrain height. Utilizing simple models of the thermotidal forcing, the resulting technique is used to compute the diurnal tide in both the dust-free and the dust-laden Martian atmosphere. The main effect of the Martian variable terrain is to drive topographic tidal modes which can propagate vertically and to excite the possibly resonant diurnal Kelvin mode. The resulting surface wind can exceed 20 m/sec and may determine the preferred location for the initiation of global dust storms. In the middle Martian atmosphere (30-80 km) static and shear instabilities embedded within the tidal fields will generate extensive, though variable, regions of turbulence. Vertical mixing by this turbulence and transport by the tide itself may help to stabilize the middle Martian atmosphere against photolysis.

Zurek, R. W.↗

Intra-seasonal Oscillations Inferred from SABER (TIMED) and MLS (UARS) Temperature Measurements

In the zonal mean meridional winds of the upper mesosphere, intra-seasonal oscillations with periods between 1 and 4 months have been inferred from UARS measurements and independently predicted with the Numerical Spectral Model WSM). The wind oscillations tend to be confined to low latitudes and appear to be driven, at least in part, by small-scale gravity waves propagating in the meridional direction. Winds across the equator should generate, due to dynamical heating and cooling, temperature oscillations with opposite phase in the two hemispheres. Investigating this phenomenon, we have analyzed SABER temperatures from TIMED in the altitude range between 55 and 95 km to delineate with an empirical model, the year-long variability of the migrating tides and zonal mean components. The inferred seasonal variations of the diurnal tide, characterized by amplitude maxima near equinox, are in substantial agreement with UARS observations and results from the NSM. For the zonal mean, the dominant seasonal variations in the SABER temperatures, with annual (12 months) and semiannual (6 months) periodicities, agree well with those derived from UARS measurements. The intra-seasonal variations with periods between 2 and 4 months have amplitudes close to 2 K, almost half as large as those for the dominant seasonal variations. Their amplitudes are in qualitative agreement with the corresponding values inferred from UARS during different years. The SABER and UARS temperature variations reveal pronounced hemispherical asymmetries, consistent with meridional wind oscillations across the equator. The phase of the semi-annual temperature oscillations from the NSM agrees with the observations from UARS and SABER. But the amplitudes are systematically smaller, which may indicate that planetary waves are more important than is allowed for in the model. For the shorter-period intra-seasonal variations, which can be generated by gravity wave drag, the model results are generally in better agreement with the observations.

Huang, F. T.↗

A Global Atmospheric Model of Meteoric Iron

The first global model of meteoric iron in the atmosphere (WACCM-Fe) has been developed by combining three components: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a description of the neutral and ion-molecule chemistry of iron in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), and a treatment of the injection of meteoric constituents into the atmosphere. The iron chemistry treats seven neutral and four ionized iron containing species with 30 neutral and ion-molecule reactions. The meteoric input function (MIF), which describes the injection of Fe as a function of height, latitude, and day, is precalculated from an astronomical model coupled to a chemical meteoric ablation model (CABMOD). This newly developed WACCM-Fe model has been evaluated against a number of available ground-based lidar observations and performs well in simulating the mesospheric atomic Fe layer. The model reproduces the strong positive correlation of temperature and Fe density around the Fe layer peak and the large anticorrelation around 100 km. The diurnal tide has a significant effect in the middle of the layer, and the model also captures well the observed seasonal variations. However, the model overestimates the peak Fe+ concentration compared with the limited rocket-borne mass spectrometer data available, although good agreement on the ion layer underside can be obtained by adjusting the rate coefficients for dissociative recombination of Fe-molecular ions with electrons. Sensitivity experiments with the same chemistry in a 1-D model are used to highlight significant remaining uncertainties in reaction rate coefficients, and to explore the dependence of the total Fe abundance on the MIF and rate of vertical transport.

meteoric inputfunction↗

Forecasting of Storm Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

Increasing the accuracy of storm surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite element based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate.

Valenti, Elizabeth↗

Forecasting of Storm-Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

Increasing the accuracy of storm-surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm-surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm-surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and, most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite-element-based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm-surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm-surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate. To keep the computational load manageable, this work was conducted using only the wind stress, calculated by using historical data from Hurricane Camille, as the input condition for the model. Hurricane storm-surge simulations were performed on an eight-node Linux computer cluster. Each node contained dual 2-GHz processors, 2GB of memory, and a 40GB hard drive. The digital elevation model (DEM) for this region was specified using a combination of Navy data (over water), NOAA data (for the coastline), and optimized Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data (over land). This high-resolution topographical data of the Mississippi coastal region provided the ADCIRC model with improved input with which to calculate improved storm-surge forecasts.

Valenti, Elizabeth↗

The Role of Gravity Waves in Modulating Atmospheric Tides

We discuss results for the diurnal and semidiurnal tides obtained from our 3-D, time dependent numerical spectral model (NMS), extending from the ground up into the thermosphere, which incorporates Hines' Doppler spread parameterization of small scale gravity waves (GW). In the DSP, GW momentum (and energy) are conserved as the waves modulate the background flow and are filtered by the flow.As a consequence, the GW interaction tightly couples the dynamic components of the middle atmosphere with strong non-linear interactions between mean zonal circulation, tides and planetary waves to produce complicated patterns of variability much like those observed. The major conclusions are: (1) Since GW momentum is deposited in the altitude regime of increasing winds, the amplitude of the diurnal tide is amplified and its vertical wavelength is reduced at altitudes between 80 and 120 km. Wave filtering by the mean zonal circulation (with peak velocities during solstice) causes the GW flux to peak during equinox, and this produces a large semi-annual variation in the tide that has been observed on UARS. (2) Without the diurnal tide, the semidiurnal tide would also be modulated in this way. But the diurnal tide filters out the GW preferentially during equinox, so that the semidiurnal tide, at higher altitudes, tends to peak during solstice. (3) Under the influence of GW, the tides are modulated also significantly by planetary waves, with periods between 2 and 30 days, which are generated preferentially during solstice in part due to baroclinic instability.

Mayr, H. G.↗

The Global S$_1$ Ocean Tide

The small S$_1$ ocean tide is caused primarily by diurnal atmospheric pressure loading. Its excitation is therefore unlike any other diurnal tide. The global character of $S-1$ is here determined by numerical modeling and by analysis of Topex/Poseidon satellite altimeter data. The two approaches yield reasonably consistent results, and large ( $ greater than $l\cm) amplitudes in several regions are further confirmed by comparison with coastal tide gauges. Notwithstanding their excitation differences, S$-1$ and other diurnal tides are found to share several common features, such as relatively large amplitudes in the Arabian Sea, the Sea of Okhotsk, and the Gulf of Alaska. The most noticeable difference is the lack of an S$-1$ Antarctic Kelvin wave. These similarities and differences can be explained in terms of the coherences between near-diurnal oceanic normal modes and the underlying tidal forcings. While gravitational diurnal tidal forces excite primarily a 28-hour Antarctic-Pacific mode, the S$_1$ air tide excites several other near-diurnal modes, none of which has large amplitudes near Antarctica.

Ray, Richard D.↗

Atmospheric Tides in Gale Crater, Mars

Atmospheric tides are the primary source of daily air pressure variation at the surface of Mars. These tides are forced by solar heating of the atmosphere and modulated by the presence of atmospheric dust, topography, and surface albedo and thermal inertia. This results in a complex mix of sun-synchronous and nonsun- synchronous tides propagating both eastward and westward around the planet in periods that are integer fractions of a solar day. The Rover Environmental Monitoring Station on board the Mars Science Laboratory has observed air pressure at a regular cadence for over 1 Mars year and here we analyze and diagnose atmospheric tides in this pressure record. The diurnal tide amplitude varies from 26 to 63 Pa with an average phase of 0424 local true solar time, while the semidiurnal tide amplitude varies from 5 to 20 Pa with an average phase of 0929. We find that both the diurnal and semidiurnal tides in Gale Crater are highly correlated to atmospheric opacity variations at a value of 0.9 and to each other at a value of 0.77, with some key exceptions occurring during regional and local dust storms. We supplement our analysis with MarsWRF general circulation modeling to examine how a local dust storm impacts the diurnal tide in its vicinity. We find that both the diurnal tide amplitude enhancement and regional coverage of notable amplitude enhancement linearly scales with the size of the local dust storm. Our results provide the first long-term record of surface pressure tides near the martian equator.

Guzewich, Scott D,↗

How tidal heating in Io drives the Galilean orbital resonance locks

The mechanisms by which orbital resonance locks are maintained among Io, Europa and Ganymede are analyzed, and the effects of the dissipative tides in Jupiter and Io on their establishment and evolution are considered. According to the proposed model, initially all three satellites are in orbits far from the 2:1 commensurabilities or the three body lock. The tide raised on Io damps down the free eccentricity; only modest tidal heating occurs. Subsequently the dissipative tide raised on Jupiter by Io causes Io's orbit to spiral outwards; Io approaches the 2:1 commensurability with Europa. Io's forced eccentricity increases rapidly to a critical value, and thereafter the resonant interaction causes Europa's orbit to expand at half that of Io's orbit. A fluid core is probably formed as the result of tidal heating. Finally Europa approaches the 2:1 commensurability, angular momentum is transferred from Europa's orbit to Ganymede's, and a steady state is attained. On the basis of the observed three-body resonance amplitude (0.066 deg), it is concluded that three-body resonance may have formed less than 500 million years ago; a measurement of the rate of tidal heating in Io may determine the Q value of both Io and Jupiter. Upper and lower limits for the Jovian Q value of 2 million and 20,000 are suggested.

Yoder, C. F.↗

Linear and nonlinear interactions between the earth tide and a tectonically stressed earth

In the vincinity of earthquake focal regions, conditions may not be equal. Crustal rocks stressed to more than approximately 0.6 of their failure strength exhibit material properties over and above that of linear elasticity. Interactions between the earth tide and crustal rocks that are under high tectonic stress are discussed in terms of simple phenomenological models. In particular, the difference between a nonlinear elastic model of dilatancy and a dilatancy model that exhibits hysteresis is noted. It is concluded that the small changes in stress produced by the earth tide act as a probe of the properties of crustal rocks. Observations of earth tide tilts and strains in such high stress zones may, therefore, provide keys to the constitutive properties and the tectonic stress rate tensor of these zones.

Beaumont, C.↗

Geophysical and astronomical models applied in the analysis of very long baseline interferometry

Very long baseline interferometry presents an opportunity to measure at the centimeter level such geodetic parameters as baseline length and instantaneous pole position. In order to achieve such precision, the geophysical and astronomical models used in data analysis must be as accurate as possible. The Mark-3 interactive data analysis system includes a number of refinements beyond conventional practice in modeling precession, nutation, diurnal polar motion, UT1, solid Earth tides, relativistic light deflection, and reduction to solar system barycentric coordinates. The algorithms and their effects on the recovered geodetic, geophysical, and astrometric parameters are discussed.

Ma, C.↗

Simultaneous observations of neutral winds and electric fields at spaced locations in the dawn auroral oval

Results are presented on simultaneous observations of neutral winds and electric fields at spaced locations in the dawn auroral oval, carried out during a chemical release experiment on March 21, 1987. The observed plasma drifts and electron densities indicated the presence of a significant coupling between plasma and neutrals at the altitude of the F region but little coupling in the lower E region. The wind variations in the height range between 95 and 130 km were suggestive of the variations and amplitudes expected if the flow was dominated by the semidiurnal tide. However, a comparison of the flow with the model developed by Forbes (1982) showed that the phase differs by 4-5 hours from the predictions. Moreover, the measured divergence and vorticity in the flow are much larger than those predicted by the model, indicating that higher-order modes than those treated by Forbes may contribute significantly to the high-latitude thermospheric flow.

Larsen, M. F.↗

Marine research using data from TOPEX/Poseidon

The Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory (POL), the Institute of Oceanographic Sciences Deacon Laboratory (IOSDL), and the British National Space Centre (BNSC) plan to use radar altimeter data from the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission in five main areas of research. These are: (1) investigation of variations in Southern Ocean sea levels and circulation; (2) related numerical modeling and data assimilation; (3) global and regional ocean tides; (4) North Sea and northeast Atlantic studies; and (5) winds and waves. Each one of these topics is described briefly below while more information can be extracted from the United Kingdom response to the TOPEX/POSEIDON Announcement of Opportunity.

Woodworth, Philip L.↗

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 5: Mapping Climate Risk

The mapping work of the NPCC is focused on illustrating spatial climate risk information to inform policy makers, stakeholders, and the public of the distribution of climate risk across the landscape of New York City. Flood risk, overall, has been the primary focus of climate risk, based on a variety of approaches including global climate models, semiempirical studies, literature surveys, expert opinion, and historic tide gauge and more recently, satellite observations of sea level rise. Maps of potential future flood extents are used to visualize coastal flooding extents at the neighborhood scale and to assess the progression of citywide flood risk throughout the 21st century. The NPCC maps were developed as a tool to illustrate our present understanding of the potential futures for which we need to prepare. This chapter reviews the background, methodology, and limitations of the NPCC3 (and NPCC2) mapping approach and features new citywide maps of mean sea level rise, monthly tidal flooding, and 100year return period flooding under a high end scenario of sea level rise. It concludes with a discussion of future mapping efforts and next steps that the NPCC could consider.

Patrick, Lesley↗

Seasonality of the Migrating Semidiurnal Tide in the Tropical Upper Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere and its Thermodynamic and Momentum Budget

This work uses the Specified Dynamics-Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with Ionosphere/Thermosphere eXtension (SD-WACCM-X) to determine and explain the seasonality of the migrating semidiurnal tide (SW2) components of tropical upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (UMLT) temperature, zonal wind, and meridional wind. This work also quantifies aliasing due to SW2 in satellite-based tidal estimates. Results show that during equinox seasons, the vertical profiles of tropical UMLT temperature SW2 and zonal-wind SW2’s amplitudes have a double-peak structure while they, along with meridional-wind SW2, have a single-peak structure in their amplitudes in June solstice. Hough mode reconstruction reveals that a linear combination of five SW2 Hough modes cannot fully reproduce these features. Tendency analysis reveals that for temperature, the adiabatic term, nonlinear advection term, and linear advection term are important. For the winds, the classical terms, nonlinear advection term, linear advection term, and gravity wave drag are important. Results of our alias analysis then indicate that SW2 can induce an ∼60% alias in zonal-mean and DW1 components calculated from sampling like that of the Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite and the Aura satellite. This work concludes that in situ generation by wave–wave interaction and/or by gravity waves plays significant roles in the seasonality of tropical UMLT temperature SW2, zonal-wind SW2, and meridional-wind SW2. The alias analysis further adds that one cannot simply assume that SW2 in the tropical UMLT is negligible.

Tides↗