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192 records · Page 11

Nimbus 6 satellite vs rawinsonde capabilities

The paper establishes rms errors in Nimbus 6 satellite data from discrepancies between satellite and rawinsonde data, compares rms errors in Nimbus 6 with those in rawinsonde data, and examines the capability of Nimbus 6 satellite data to depict such quantities as horizontal gradients of basic variables and computed variables such as vorticity and lapse rate of temperature. The capability of Nimbus 6 data is illustrated by comparisons of rms errors in computed variables obtained through a propagation-of-error method with average and near-extreme values of the variables obtained from two of NASA's Atmospheric Variability Experiments (AVE II and AVE IV). It is shown that the rms errors in Nimbus 6 basic variables (temperature, mixing ratio, geopotential height, and wind speed) are between 2 and 12 times larger than the corresponding errors in rawinsonde data. For all variables examined, the magnitude of the rms errors are smaller than the near-extreme values of the variables determined from AVE II and AVE IV data.

Scoggins, J. R.↗

Application and Evaluation of a Snowmelt Runoff Model in the Tamor River Basin, Eastern Himalaya Using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Data Assimilation Approach

Previous studies have drawn attention to substantial hydrological changes taking place in mountainous watersheds where hydrology is dominated by cryospheric processes. Modelling is an important tool for understanding these changes but is particularly challenging in mountainous terrain owing to scarcity of ground observations and uncertainty of model parameters across space and time. This study utilizes a Markov Chain Monte Carlo data assimilation approach to examine and evaluate the performance of a conceptual, degree-day snowmelt runoff model applied in the Tamor River basin in the eastern Nepalese Himalaya. The snowmelt runoff model is calibrated using daily streamflow from 2002 to 2006 with fairly high accuracy (average Nash-Sutcliffe metric approx. 0.84, annual volume bias <3%). The Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach constrains the parameters to which the model is most sensitive (e.g. lapse rate and recession coefficient) and maximizes model fit and performance. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. The average snowmelt contribution to total runoff in the Tamor River basin for the 2002-2006 period is estimated to be 29.7+/-2.9% (which includes 4.2+/-0.9% from snowfall that promptly melts), whereas 70.3+/-2.6% is attributed to contributions from rainfall. On average, the elevation zone in the 4000-5500m range contributes the most to basin runoff, averaging 56.9+/-3.6% of all snowmelt input and 28.9+/-1.1% of all rainfall input to runoff. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall versus snowmelt compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. Model experiments indicate that the hydrograph itself does not constrain estimates of snowmelt versus rainfall contributions to total outflow but that this derives from the degree-day melting model. Lastly, we demonstrate that the data assimilation approach is useful for quantifying and reducing uncertainty related to model parameters and thus provides uncertainty bounds on snowmelt and rainfall contributions in such mountainous watersheds.

runoff↗

Precipitation and kinematic structure of microburst producing storms

Single Doppler radar techniques are used to study the precipitation and kinematic structure of microburst-producing storms. Radar data collected by NCAR radars during the Joint Airport Weather Studies (JAWS) experiment are presented along with rawinsonde data taken at Denver, Colorado near the times of microburst occurrence. The radar reflectivity and velocity structure of the storms exhibited great variability, with no unique signature indicating a microburst was imminent. Detection of descending divergent flow is probably not a microburst forecasting tool, nor can the presence of rotation be used as a precursor at present. Convergent flow aloft was a prominent feature in all events. Its occurrence with a descending precipitation shaft and/or at high altitudes is a good indicator of a downdraft. It is concluded that convergent flow is a very important microburst forecasting clue, particularly when coupled with the entrainment of Theta(e) air and a dry-adiabatic lapse rate below cloud base.

Roberts, R. D.↗

The Impact of Controlled Rest on Neurobehavioral Outcomes at Top-of-Descent

INTRODUCTION: Long and irregular working hours can lead to fatigue in aviation operations. In some regions, a short nap taken on the flight deck (known as controlled rest) can be used as a countermeasure to unexpected in-flight sleepiness. We aimed to investigate the impact of taking controlled rest on neurobehavioral measures at top-of-descent. METHODS: Data from 120 long-haul (> 6 h flight duration), unaugmented flights were analyzed (n = 31 pilots). Pilots wore actigraphs and completed sleep logs before and during trips. At pre-flight and top-of-descent, pilots completed a 5-minute psychomotor vigilance task (PVT) and Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS). A series of mixed-effects models were conducted to assess the impact of controlled rest on outcome measures at top-of-descent. Sleep duration in the prior 48 hours, timing of the flight, and pre-flight scores for each measure were included as covariates. RESULTS: Due to missing data, complete data from 76 flights (n = 28 participants) were available in the models examining the PVT metrics, and data from 83 flights (n = 29 participants) were available in the analyses of the KSS. Pilots who took controlled rest had faster response speeds at top-of-descent (p = .03, η2p = 0.07; estimated marginal mean [EMM] = 4.19, standard error [SE] = 0.07, 95% CI [4.08, 4.29]) than those who did not take controlled rest (EMM = 4.00, SE = 0.05, 95% CI [3.86, 4.14]). There were no differences by controlled rest status for KSS scores and PVT lapses (p values > .05, η2p values ≤ 0.01). DISCUSSION: Our results suggest that taking controlled rest may improve vigilant attention at critical phases of flight and, thus, may be a useful fatigue management tool during unaugmented flights. Further research is necessary to determine the impact of factors on the decision to take controlled rest (e.g., airline culture, personal preference) and how the controlled rest policy is applied in practice.

aviation↗

Flight Performance Estimates for the NASA X-57 Distributed Electric Propulsion Flight Demonstrator

The X-57 flight demonstrator concept featured four configurations starting with a conventional combustion-powered multiengine airplane and ending with a fully electric configuration with two forms of distributed propulsion and a highly modified wing. These configurations, called Mods, were designed to gain incremental insight into different aircraft propulsion configuration options and their impact on the aircraft performance. The gasoline-powered Mod I configuration consumed 2.6 to 2.9 times more stored energy in cruise than the electric but otherwise conventionally configured Mod II configuration. The highly loaded wing of Mod III led to an increase of 40% in the power-off lift-to-drag ratio as compared to Mod II at the project high-speed cruise target speed and altitude. The power-on lift-to-drag ratio of Mod III was 53% higher than Mod II due to the beneficial aero-propulsive interaction of the wingtip-mounted cruise propellers in Mod III. The high-lift propeller system of Mod IV recovered the low-speed performance of the conventional configuration in Mod II that was otherwise lost with the introduction of the highly loaded Mod III wing. The battery-electric configurations also benefitted from a lack of power lapse in the electric motors with increasing air density as compared to the combustion-powered baseline aircraft.

Distributed Performance↗

Flight Performance Estimates for the NASA X-57 Distributed Electric Propulsion Flight Demonstrator

The X-57 flight demonstrator concept featured four configurations starting with a conventional combustion-powered multiengine airplane and ending with a fully electric configuration with two forms of distributed propulsion and a highly modified wing. These configurations, called Mods, were designed to gain incremental insight into different aircraft propulsion configuration options and their impact on the aircraft performance. The gasoline-powered Mod I configuration consumed 2.6 to 2.9 times more stored energy in cruise than the electric but otherwise conventionally configured Mod II configuration. The highly loaded wing of Mod III led to an increase of 40% in the power-off lift-to-drag ratio as compared to Mod II at the project high-speed cruise target speed and altitude. The power-on lift-to-drag ratio of Mod III was 53% higher than Mod II due to the beneficial aero-propulsive interaction of the wingtip-mounted cruise propellers in Mod III. The high-lift propeller system of Mod IV recovered the low-speed performance of the conventional configuration in Mod II that was otherwise lost with the introduction of the highly loaded Mod III wing. The battery-electric configurations also benefitted from a lack of power lapse in the electric motors with increasing air density as compared to the combustion-powered baseline aircraft.

Distributed Performance↗

Investigating the Effects of Exposure to Blue-Enriched Light or Peppermint Odor on Alertness, Mood, and Performance Upon Awakening from Deep Sleep at Night

Introduction: Sleep inertia refers the transient neurobehavioral impairments experienced immediately after waking from sleep. This period of reduced alertness and performance poses a significant safety risk to on-call workers who may be required to perform a safety-critical task immediately after waking (e.g., emergency services, health care, and military). In these operations, the need for a rapid return to full alertness is critical to mission safety and success. Several factors may exacerbate sleep inertia, resulting in greater impairment upon waking, including: waking from deep sleep, (i.e., slow wave sleep, SWS), waking at night, and waking following prior sleep loss. Awakenings under these conditions are common for on-call and extended shift workers who may need to perform safety-critical tasks soon after waking from unprotected sleep opportunities. Therefore, there is a need for evidence-based reactive countermeasures (i.e., used upon waking) to the cognitive consequences sleep inertia. Specifically, countermeasures that can rapidly restore alertness and performance immediately following sleep. A recent review of the literature on reactive countermeasures highlighted several research gaps and promising candidates for further investigation. The review also emphasized the need for countermeasures that are operationally viable and readily deployed in occupational settings. This study aims to address the identified gaps and limitations by assessing the efficacy of exposure to two known acute alerting stimuli - blue-enriched light and peppermint odor - to improve cognitive performance, alertness, and mood immediately after waking from SWS at night. Materials and Methods: Twelve participants completed a two-week within-subject, randomized, cross-over intervention study including two in-laboratory overnight visits. During each experimental week, the subjects experienced one intervention (light or peppermint) and a control condition upon awakening from SWS at night. The presentation order of the two conditions (intervention or control) at wake-up and the order of intervention (light or peppermint) by week was randomized by sex. Prior to each in-laboratory visit, participants maintained a sleep schedule of 8.5 h for 5 nights and 5 h for one night. Compliance with this sleep schedule was confirmed by actigraphy. In the laboratory, participants went to bed at their habitual bedtime and were monitored by standard polysomnography. After at least five minutes of continuous SWS, participants were awoken and exposed, in a randomized order, to either the control or intervention condition. During the hour after awakening from SWS (at 2, 17, 32, and 47 minutes after waking), participants completed a battery of tasks including a 5-minute psychomotor vigilance task (PVT), a subjective scale of alertness (Karolinska Sleepiness Scale, KSS), and visual analogue scales (VAS) of mood. Following this sleep inertia measurement period, all lights were turned off and participants were allowed to return to sleep. They were then awoken again from their subsequent SWS period and exposed to the alternative condition (control or intervention). Following this second awakening, participants were allowed to sleep until their habitual wake time and were then released from the laboratory. Participants then followed the at-home sleep schedule and returned to the laboratory for the second intervention (light or peppermint) following the procedures described above. The light intervention involved exposure to a blue-enriched light canvas illuminated for 1 hour at a distance of ~56 cm from the participant (~200 lux and ~60 melanopic lux at angle of gaze). For the peppermint intervention, peppermint oil was pipetted onto a mask, and participants inhaled the odor with the mask covering the nose and mouth for 1 minute. The control condition for both weeks involved a dim, red ambient light (<1 lux). An odorless mask, without any oil pipetted onto the mask, was also worn in the peppermint control condition. Results: Compared to the control condition, participants exposed to blue-enriched light had fewer PVT lapses (χ2 = 5.285, p = .022), reported feeling more alert (KSS: F1,77 = 4.955, p = .029; VASalert: F1,77 = 8.226, p = .005), and had improved mood (VAScheerful: F1,77 = 8.615, p = .004; VASdepressed: F1,77 = 4.649, p = .034; VASlethargic: F1,77 = 5.652, p = .020). Exposure to peppermint oil did not improve any outcome measures on any of the tasks compared to control condition (p > .05). Conclusions: We found that participants had fewer lapses of attention upon awakening when exposed to blue-enriched light compared to dim, red light. In addition, participants reported feeling more alert, more cheerful, less depressed, and less lethargic in the blue-enriched light condition. Brief exposure to a peppermint odor, however, did not appear to improve performance, alertness, or mood under the experimental conditions. Our null results in the peppermint condition may have been due to methodological limitations such as the duration and method of administration. Given the need to mitigate the potential impact of sleep inertia on safety-critical tasks in on-call operations, our findings suggest that blue-enriched light exposure upon awakening may help to improve performance and alertness during the sleep inertia period following awakening from deep, nocturnal sleep. We are currently exploring the potential mechanisms for the effect of light on cognitive performance upon awakening as well as investigating its application in real-world settings to explore the translational efficacy of this countermeasure to occupational environments. Continued exploration into light and other reactive countermeasures, and potentially their combination, is needed in order to provide evidence-based guidance on effective sleep inertia countermeasures to improve the alertness and performance of those required to perform safety-critical tasks soon after waking.

sleep inertia↗

Launch Vehicle Demonstrator Using Shuttle Assets

The Advanced Concepts Office at NASA's George C. Marshall Space Flight Center undertook a study to define candidate early heavy lift demonstration launch vehicle concepts derived from existing space shuttle assets. The objective was to determine the performance capabilities of these vehicles and characterize potential early demonstration test flights. Given the anticipated budgetary constraints that may affect America's civil space program, and a lapse in U.S. heavy launch capability with the retirement of the space shuttle, an early heavy lift launch vehicle demonstration flight would not only demonstrate capabilities that could be utilized for future space exploration missions, but also serve as a building block for the development of our nation s next heavy lift launch system. An early heavy lift demonstration could be utilized as a test platform, demonstrating capabilities of future space exploration systems such as the Multi Purpose Crew Vehicle. By using existing shuttle assets, including the RS-25D engine inventory, the shuttle equipment manufacturing and tooling base, and the segmented solid rocket booster industry, a demonstrator concept could expedite the design-to-flight schedule while retaining critical human skills and capital. In this study two types of vehicle designs are examined. The first utilizes a high margin/safety factor battleship structural design in order to minimize development time as well as monetary investment. Structural design optimization is performed on the second, as if an operational vehicle. Results indicate low earth orbit payload capability is more than sufficient to support various vehicle and vehicle systems test programs including Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle articles. Furthermore, a shuttle-derived, hydrogen core vehicle configuration offers performance benefits when trading evolutionary paths to maximum capability.

Creech, Dennis M.↗

Deep Convective Cloud Top Heights and Their Thermodynamic Control During CRYSTAL-FACE

Infrared (11 micron) radiances from GOES-8 and local radiosonde profiles, collected during the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) in July 2002, are used to assess the vertical distribution of Florida-area deep convective cloud top height and test predictions as to its variation based on parcel theory. The highest infrared tops (Z(sub 11)) reached approximately to the cold point, though there is at least a 1-km uncertainty due to unknown cloud-environment temperature differences. Since lidar shows that visible 'tops' are 1 km or more above Z(sub 11), visible cloud tops frequently penetrated the lapse-rate tropopause (approx. 15 km). Further, since lofted ice content may be present up to approx. 1 km above the visible tops, lofting of moisture through the mean cold point (15.4 km) was probably common. Morning clouds, and those near Key West, rarely penetrated the tropopause. Non-entraining parcel theory (i.e., CAPE) does not successfully explain either of these results, but can explain some of the day-to-day variations in cloud top height over the peninsula. Further, moisture variations above the boundary layer account for most of the day-today variability not explained by CAPE, especially over the oceans. In all locations, a 20% increase in mean mixing ratio between 750 and 500 hPa was associated with about 1 km deeper maximum cloud penetration relative to the neutral level. These results suggest that parcel theory may be useful for predicting changes in cumulus cloud height over time, but that parcel entrainment must be taken into account even for the tallest clouds. Accordingly, relative humidity above the boundary layer may exert some control on the height of the tropical troposphere.

Sherwood, Steven C.↗

Isotopic Ordering in Atmospheric O2 as a Tracer of Ozone Photochemistry and the Tropical Atmosphere

The distribution of isotopes within O2 molecules can be rapidly altered when they react with atomic oxygen. This mechanism is globally important: while other contributions to the global budget of O2 impart isotopic signatures, the O(3P) + O2 reaction resets all such signatures in the atmosphere on subdecadal timescales. Consequently, the isotopic distribution within O2 is determined by O3 photochemistry and the circulation patterns that control where that photochemistry occurs. The variability of isotopic ordering in O2 has not been established, however. We present new measurements of 18O18O in air (reported as delta36 values) from the surface to 33 km altitude. They confirm the basic features of the clumped-isotope budget of O2: Stratospheric air has higher delta36 values than tropospheric air (i.e., more 18O18O), reflecting colder temperatures and fast photochemical cycling of O3. Lower delta36 values in the troposphere arise from photochemistry at warmer temperatures balanced by the influx of high-delta36 air from the stratosphere. These observations agree with predictions derived from the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, which provides additional insight. We find a link between tropical circulation patterns and regions where delta36 values are reset in the troposphere. The dynamics of these regions influences lapse rates, vertical and horizontal patterns of O2 reordering, and thus the isotopic distribution toward which O2 is driven in the troposphere. Temporal variations in delta36 values at the surface should therefore reflect changes in tropospheric temperatures, photochemistry, and circulation. Our results suggest that the tropospheric O3 burden has remained within a +/-10 percent range since 1978.

oxygen↗

Is CO2 capable to keeping early Mars warm?

One of the goals of NASA's Exobiology Research Program is to determine whether life exists today on Mars (unlikely) or whether it might have existed there at some time in the past (more likely). Speculation about extinct life is driven by the observation of channels on the Martian surface, thought to indicate the past presence of liquid water and, hence, the existence of a warmer climate. Current thinking suggests that such a climate could have been maintained if early Mars had a dense CO2 atmosphere with a surface pressure of 1 to 5 bars. One of the phenomena that Martian climate modelers have not looked at very carefully is the process of CO2 condensation. Reexamination of some of my own calculations indicates that condensation should occur at high altitudes in some high-CO2, Martian atmospheres, particularly those in which the solar constant is set to its initial main sequence value (about 70 percent of present. CO2 condensation should affect the surface temperature in two ways: (1) if it occurs in the convective lower atmosphere, condensation will reduce the magnitude of the greenhouse effect by decreasing the lapse rate; and (2) condensation at any altitude will produce clouds, which can either warm or cool the climate depending on their altitude and optical depth. Preliminary calculations with a 1-D, radiative-convective climate model indicate that the lapse rate change is substantial for low solar luminosity models. Other aspects of this study are discussed.

Kasting, J. F.↗

Toward The Development of Hailstorm Climatologies Derived From Reanalyses and Infared/Passive Microwave Satellite Imagers

Geostationary satellite imagers, such as those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Meteosat series, provide both historical and near-real-time observations of cloud top patterns that are commonly associated with severe convection. Environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are thought to be represented well by reanalyses. Predicting exactly where convection and costly storm hazards like hail will occur using models or satellite imagery alone, however, is extremely challenging. The multivariate combination of satellite-observed cloud patterns with reanalysis environmental parameters, linked to United States Next Generation Weather Radar- (NEXRAD-) estimated Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) using a deep neural network (DNN), enables estimation of potentially severe hail likelihood for any observed storm cell. These estimates are specifically designed to make hail likelihood distinctions based on satellite-indicated points of deep convection within environments favorable for storm development. We seek an approach that can be used to estimate climatological hailstorm frequency and risk throughout the historical satellite data record. This presentation demonstrates that statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis show separation between non-severe/severe hailstorm classes for predictors including overshooting cloud top temperature and area characteristics, convective available potential energy, vertical wind shear, 500 hPa temperature, mid-level lapse rate, precipitable water, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN to produce a hail likelihood metric with a critical success index of 0.504 and Heidke skill score of 0.403, which is exceptional among recent analogous hail studies. Furthermore, applications of the DNN to select case studies demonstrate good qualitative agreement between hail likelihood and MESH. These hail classifications are aggregated across an 11-year GOES-12/13 image database to derive a hail frequency and severity climatology, which denotes the Central Plains, the Midwest, and northwestern Mexico as being the most hail-prone regions within the domain studied. Opportunities for training and applying DNN-based hailstorm predictions to recently developed GOES-8/10/12/13/16 and Meteosat Second Generation convective storm detection and characterization climatologies over South America and South Africa, respectively, will also be presented.

Kristopher Bedka↗