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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11

Primordial non-Gaussianity from the completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey – I: Catalogue preparation and systematic mitigation

ABSTRACT We investigate the large-scale clustering of the final spectroscopic sample of quasars from the recently completed extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS). The sample contains 343 708 objects in the redshift range 0.8 < z < 2.2 and 72 667 objects with redshifts 2.2 < z < 3.5, covering an effective area of $4699\, {\rm deg}^{2}$. We develop a neural network-based approach to mitigate spurious fluctuations in the density field caused by spatial variations in the quality of the imaging data used to select targets for follow-up spectroscopy. Simulations are used with the same angular and radial distributions as the real data to estimate covariance matrices, perform error analyses, and assess residual systematic uncertainties. We measure the mean density contrast and cross-correlations of the eBOSS quasars against maps of potential sources of imaging systematics to address algorithm effectiveness, finding that the neural network-based approach outperforms standard linear regression. Stellar density is one of the most important sources of spurious fluctuations, and a new template constructed using data from the Gaia spacecraft provides the best match to the observed quasar clustering. The end-product from this work is a new value-added quasar catalogue with the improved weights to correct for non-linear imaging systematic effects, which will be made public. Our quasar catalogue is used to measure the local-type primordial non-Gaussianity in a companion paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Weak charge and weak radius of 12 C

Here, we present a feasibility study of a simultaneous sub-percent extraction of the weak charge and the weak radius of the 12 C nucleus using parity-violating electron scattering, based on a largely model-independent assessment of the uncertainties. The corresponding measurement is considered to be carried out at the future MESA facility in Mainz with E beam = 155 MeV. We find that a combination of a 0.3% precise measurement of the parity-violating asymmetry at forward angles with a 10% measurement at backward angles will allow to determine the weak charge and the weak radius of 12 C with 0.4% and 0.5% precision, respectively. These values could be improved to 0.3% and 0.2% for a 3% backward measurement. This experimental program will have impact on precision low-energy tests in the electroweak sector and nuclear structure.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Jülich-Bonn-Washington model for pion electroproduction multipoles

Pion electroproduction off the proton is analyzed in a new framework based on a general parametrization of transition amplitudes, including constraints from gauge invariance and threshold behavior. Data with energies 1.13 GeV < W < 1.6 GeV and Q 2 below 6 Ge V 2 are included. The model is an extension of the latest Jülich-Bonn solution incorporating constraints from pion-induced and photoproduction data. Here, performing large-scale fits (≈10 5 data) we find a set of solutions with $χ^2_{\text{dof}}$ = 1.69–1.81 which allows us to assess the systematic uncertainty of the approach.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Determining the 9 $\mathrm{Be}$($n, γ$) 10 $\mathrm{Be}$ integral cross section at fission neutron energies

The 9 B neutron capture cross section has significant implications for Be materials in the nuclear industry as well as the α process in stellar nucleosynthesis. While the cross section is well constrained at thermal neutron energies, there is a lack of experimental data at higher neutron energies, and the evaluated nuclear data libraries can differ by up to two orders of magnitude. We calculate the 9 Be(n, γ) 10 Be integral cross section at fission neutron energies in an effort to resolve disagreements amongst the nuclear data libraries. Foil irradiation experiments were performed using the Flattop critical assembly at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center with either the highly enriched U or Pu cores, with target foil stacks placed at multiple locations to exploit different neutron energy profiles. Accelerator mass spectrometry was used to measure the 10 Be/ 9 Be ratio in irradiated Be foils, while all other activation products were quantified through gamma spectrometry. The experiments were simulated using the Monte Carlo N-Particle radiation transport code and combined with experimental results to determine the total neutron fluence, while the staysl-pnnl suite and fispact-ii code were used to validate the model and assess the systematic uncertainty. The new 9 Be(n, γ) 10 Be integral cross sections calculated in this work are 26.5 ± 2.2µb at 0.59 ± 0.07 MeV, 24 ± 3 µb at 0.98 ± 0.14 MeV, 21.7 ± 1.3 µb at 1.26 ± 0.11 MeV, 21.8 ± 1.4 µb at 1.32 ± 0.11 MeV, and 18.6 ± 1.1 µb at 1.46 ± 0.13 MeV. These results do not agree with integral cross sections from any of the nuclear data library evaluations. Discrepancies between the new integral cross sections reported here and the nuclear data libraries suggest a more complex cross-section structure in the MeV range which allows for more resonance contributions, and more work is needed to further constrain the evaluated cross sections.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Information Content of the Parity-Violating Asymmetry in Pb 208

The parity-violating asymmetry A PV in 208 Pb, recently measured by the PREX-2 Collaboration, is studied using modern relativistic (covariant) and nonrelativistic energy density functionals. We first assess the theoretical uncertainty on A PV which is intrinsic to the adopted approach. To this end, we use quantified functionals that are able to accommodate our previous knowledge on nuclear observables such as binding energies, charge radii, and the dipole polarizability α D of 208 Pb. We then add the quantified value of A PV together with α D to our calibration dataset to optimize new functionals. Based on these results, we predict a neutron skin thickness in 208 Pb r skin = 0.19 ± 0.02 fm and the symmetry-energy slope L = 54 ± 8 MeV. These values are consistent with other estimates based on astrophysical data and are significantly lower than those recently reported using a particular set of relativistic energy density functionals. Here, we also make a prediction for the A PV value in 48 Ca that will be soon available from the CREX measurement.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Combined Theoretical Analysis of the Parity-Violating Asymmetry for 48 Ca and 208 Pb

The recent experimental determination of the parity violating asymmetry A PV in 48 Ca and 208 Pb at Jefferson Lab is important for our understanding on how neutrons and protons arrange themselves inside the atomic nucleus. To better understand the impact of these measurements, we present a rigorous theoretical investigation of A PV in 48 Ca and 208 Pb and assess the associated uncertainties. Here, we complement our study by inspecting the static electric dipole polarizability in these nuclei. The analysis is carried out within nuclear energy density functional theory with quantified input. We conclude that the simultaneous accurate description of A PV in 48 Ca and 208 Pb cannot be achieved by our models that accommodate a pool of global nuclear properties, such as masses and charge radii, throughout the nuclear chart, and describe—within one standard deviation—the experimental dipole polarizabilities in these nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

First Observation of Cyclotron Radiation from MeV-Scale e ± following Nuclear β Decay

We present an apparatus for detection of cyclotron radiation yielding a frequency-based β ± kinetic energy determination in the 5 keV to 2.1 MeV range, characteristic of nuclear β decays. The cyclotron frequency of the radiating β particles in a magnetic field is used to determine the β energy precisely. Our work establishes the foundation to apply the cyclotron radiation emission spectroscopy (CRES) technique, developed by the Project 8 Collaboration, far beyond the 18-keV tritium endpoint region. We report initial measurements of β – ’s from 6 He and β + ’s from 19 Ne decays to demonstrate the broadband response of our detection system and assess potential systematic uncertainties for β spectroscopy over the full (MeV) energy range. To our knowledge, this is the first direct observation of cyclotron radiation from individual highly relativistic β’s in a waveguide. Furthermore, this work establishes the application of CRES to a variety of nuclei, opening its reach to searches for new physics beyond the TeV scale via precision β-decay measurements.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Simulated Feasibility of 3-D Lightning Mapping From Space

In addition to the awe it inspires, lightning can illuminate the microphysical processes hidden away within deep convection. The current generation of space-based lightning mapping uses mostly 2-D optical imaging to connect overall flash characteristics to their parent storm dynamics, but are missing a dimension’s worth of information. With lightning now classified as an essential climate variable, future spaceborne mappers will need improved capabilities to take advantage of the 3-D structure of lightning flashes to support meteorological and climate modeling. We report here on a study of the feasibility of high-resolution 3-D lightning mapping using a radio frequency (RF)-based network of satellites from low-Earth orbit (LEO). Lightning sources are simulated using existing lightning mapping array (LMA) tools, modified for orbital detection, and spatially reconstructed using a Levenberg–Marquardt geolocation algorithm to assess sources of uncertainty in these solutions. We analyze the benefits and limitations of this approach compared to existing orbital and ground-based methods. Results of this study show that lightning can be mapped in 3-D with a vertical location accuracy better than 2 km using as few as five satellites in LEO capable of measuring the time-of-arrival of impulsive RF signals in the very high-frequency (VHF) band. The consequence of this study is that high-resolution, spaceborne 3-D mapping of lightning is achievable across most of the globe, having crucial implications for our understanding of not only lightning, but also severe weather development, climate science, and more.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Review of High‐Speed Digital Image Correlation: Advancements and Good Practices

This paper reviews the current state of the art in high‐speed (HS) and ultrahigh‐speed (UHS) digital image correlation (DIC) techniques, emphasizing their critical role in experimental research across various scientific domains. HS and UHS DIC have evolved significantly, driven by advancements in camera systems, image processing algorithms and experimental methodologies. These developments have opened new avenues for capturing and analysing dynamic events with unprecedented temporal and spatial detail, but not without introducing challenges such as optical distortions, motion blur and lighting issues that can affect measurement quality. This review advocates for standardized reporting practices in HS/UHS DIC methodologies to improve reproducibility and reliability across studies, drawing on guidelines from the International Digital Image Correlation Society (iDICs). Through a comprehensive analysis of over 150 articles, this review identifies key advancements in imaging technology and their application in six research domains: material characterization, test development, fracture mechanics, model validation, ballistic and explosive phenomena assessment and measurement uncertainties. Distinctions between two‐dimensional (2D) and stereo‐DIC applications are explored, offering insights into their practical implementation and trade‐offs. Good practices for HS/UHS DIC applications are proposed along with suggestions for future directions for this evolving field, highlighting the indispensable role of technological innovation in expanding the capabilities of optical metrology.

experimental mechanics↗

Dose estimates and their uncertainties for use in epidemiological studies of radiation-exposed populations in the Russian Southern Urals

Many residents of the Russian Southern Urals were exposed to radioactive environmental pollution created by the operations of the Mayak Production Association in the mid- 20 th century. There were two major releases: the discharge of about 1x10 17 Bq of liquid waste into the Techa River between 1949 and 1959; and the atmospheric release of 7.4 * 10 16 Bq as a result an explosion in the radioactive waste-storage facility in 1957. The releases into the Techa River resulted in the exposure of more than 30,000 people who lived in riverside villages between 1950 and 1961. The 1957 accident contaminated a larger area with the highest exposure levels in an area that is called the East Urals Radioactive Trace (EURT). Current epidemiologic studies of the exposed populations are based on dose estimates obtained using a Monte-Carlo dosimetry system (TRDS-2016MC) that provides multiple realizations of the annual doses for each cohort member. These dose realizations provide a central estimate of the individual dose and information on the uncertainty of these dose estimates. In addition, the correlation of individual annual doses over realizations provides important information on shared uncertainties that can be used to assess the impact of shared dose uncertainties on risk estimate uncertainty.This paper considers dose uncertainties in the TRDS-2016MC. Individual doses from external and internal radiation sources were reconstructed for 48,036 people based on environmental contamination patterns, residential histories, individual 90 Sr body-burden measurements and dietary intakes. Dietary intake of 90 Sr resulted in doses accumulated in active bone marrow (or simply, marrow) that were an order of magnitude greater than those in soft tissues. About 84% of the marrow dose and 50% of the stomach dose was associated with internal exposures. The lognormal distribution is well-fitted to the individual dose realizations, which, therefore, could be expressed and easily operated in terms of geometric mean (GM) and geometric standard deviation (GSD). Cohort average GM for marrow and stomach cumulative doses are 0.21 and 0.03 Gy, respectively. Cohort average dose uncertainties in terms of GSD are as follows: for marrow it is 2.93 (90%CI: 2.02–4.34); for stomach and the other non-calcified tissues it is 2.32 (90% CI: 1.78–2.9).

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Understanding Material Strength Variabilities and Uncertainties for Component Qualification (2020 LDRD Final Report)

At its core, material specification and materials qualification require an understanding of the uncertainties in relation to a given performance metric. When simulations are used to inform the design and evaluation of these metrics, it is essential to understand the uncertainties in the underlying models and parameters that feed into those simulations. In this work, we have created a statistical framework to address uncertainties in the materials strength modeling used in integrated simulations. The framework is based on the Bayesian methodology, which allows for uncertainties to be updated as new data become available. The results of this work show how model parameters and their uncertainties can be updated as new and different types of strength data are added, as well as methods for determining which future experiment has the greatest potential to reduce the uncertainty. The statistical framework developed in this project will be utilized to assess and propagate the uncertainties in the strength models used in the programmatic simulations and to create a way to formally update those uncertainties as new data become available.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Verification and Validation of High Explosive Reactive Burn Models Implemented in LANL's EAP and LAP Code Base

Reactive burn models represent a significant leap in high explosive (HE) modeling capability. The first generation of engineering models of HE detonation are called programmed burn models and they are largely based on the distance between a prescribed detonation point and each zone in a simulation. There have been many advancements to programmed burn models over the years and when the assumptions upon which they are based are met, a properly tuned programmed burn model can be highly accurate but if any of their assumptions is not met, as is the case for corner turning or weakly initiated HE burn, they will give the wrong answer. Reactive burn models represent an entirely new way of modeling HE burn. They use the local conditions of a zone – e.g. temperature, pressure or density – as calculated by a hydrocode to determine if and when the zone is going to detonate and if so, how rapidly. This difference opens up an entirely new set of capabilities for HE modeling. It makes it possible to accurately and predictively model phenomena like the effect of confinement and the formation of dead zones. Reactive burn models have seen sustained development effort at LANL for at least the last decade but several recent developments make it timely to transition reactive burn models from a research topic to a production tool. The main goal of this milestone is to facilitate and accelerate the adoption of reactive burn as a commonly available modeling option, with recommendations on the resolution that will be required and uncertainties associated with their modeling choices. To achieve this, we have performed verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (UQ) assessments of AWSD and SURF/SURFplus in xRage and FLAG on a variety of different problems.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Zero Power Reactor Database (ZPRD) Development Plan

Past sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFR) were built with an active experimental program in place to support the design and development work. Most of the experimental facilities in the United States that were important for SFR design were shutdown in the 1980s and 1990s. Reactor licensing and construction requires any reactor design to be verified against existing reactor facilities or experimental measurements. With the absence of those experimental facilities, modern SFR projects must rely on historical measurements to demonstrate that the engineering modeling software and data being used for the new reactor design work are reliable. There has been a considerable push in the last 6 years by both DOE and commercial companies to obtain historical experimental measurements that are relevant for SFRs, in particular those with features that are important for the new reactor designs of interest. The zero power reactor experiments carried out at Argonne National Laboratory’s critical facilities (ZPR-3, ZPR-6, ZPR-9, and ZPPR) from the 1950s to the 1980s are some of the best reactor physics experiments on SFR technology that are available today. Of particular interest today are the ZPPR-15 measurements done at the ZPPR facility for the Integral Fast Reactor project in the 1980s as they are in line with most commercial and DOE interests today. In the past 10 years, the measurements done on ZPPR-15 have been processed into both Monte Carlo (MCNP) and deterministic models (MC2-3 and DIF3D) useable for validating the engineering modeling software for key parts of the SFR design work. To achieve this, a detailed model description must be created for the experiment and the experimental measurement that the engineering modeling software is to reproduce. Then, an assessment of the uncertainty on the measured quantity which considers all of the sources of uncertainty in defining the model must be obtained and documented. The models created for ZPPR-15 provide the best validation basis available today for neutronics modeling software. Reference 2 is a good resource to understand how these models were built and how the uncertainties on the measured quantities were derived. The intention of the Zero Power Reactor Database (ZPRD), hosted at frdb.ne.anl.gov, is to make available the experimental measurements and models that have been constructed to-date. Though ZPPR-15 measurements are the primary data requested for validation needs, other measurements on ZPPR, ZPR-6, and ZPR-9 in support of the Clinch River Breeder Reactor (CRBR) and Fast Test Reactor (FFTF) should also be considered important for future software validation needs. In this manuscript, the details of available measurements on ZPR-3, ZPR-6, ZPR-9, and ZPPR facilities are summarized, and a general organization of the web interface is displayed. Many of the documents associated with the measurements are export controlled information so access to the database will also have to be controlled.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Final Design for Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments (TEX) with Lithium Absorbers to Provide Validation Benchmarks for Y-12 Electrorefining Facility

One of the main goals of the Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments (TEX) project is to use existing Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) assets to create critical experiment plutonium and uranium test beds for materials important to criticality safety that have insufficient benchmark evaluations. The plutonium test bed experiments were completed in 2018 and are published in the 2020 edition of the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook. The uranium test bed assemblies were completed in 2023 and accepted in the 2024 edition of the ICSBEP Handbook. The Nuclear Criticality Safety (NCS) group at Y-12 National Security Complex has identified programmatic need for validation cases for uranium electrorefining operations at Y-12. The electrorefining operation credits lithium enriched in 6 Li in addition to 35 Cl as absorbers in the design criticality safety evaluation for precluding criticality under upset conditions in the large and geometrically unfavorable electro-refiner. There is, however, inadequate experimental validation for the 6 Li absorbers. As an extension of the TEX uranium test bed, TEX-Cl critical experiments were performed with sodium chloride salt to address the 35 Cl thermal absorption as well as other validation needs at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). These experiments were completed in 2024 and accepted into the 2025 ICSBEP Handbook. To continue the methodology used in TEX-Cl, TEX-Li aims to accomplish the same. The overall design of both experiments was to use commercially available, high purity, salts with polyethylene moderator and HEU plates to configure a critical assembly. Three experiments are planned for TEX-Li using encapsulated lithium carbonate (Li 2 CO 3 ), with natural 6 Li abundance. For all experiments, the highly enriched uranium (HEU) Jemima plates will be used as fissile material. Multiple layers will be stacked together with encapsulated Li 2 CO 3 alternated with polyethylene in standard configurations. Standard stacking was found to be optimal in matching the different sensitivity profiles provided by the Y-12 models. Three configurations are proposed with varying polyethylene moderation and a constant 1/4” absorber thickness. The first uses 11 layers of 5/4” polyethylene, the second uses 9 layers of 3/4” polyethylene, and the third uses 10 layers of 1/2” polyethylene. Calculations showed that some alternative forms of lithium-based materials provided slightly less-optimal sensitivity profiles when compared to lithium carbonate but come with other drawbacks. These alternatives included lithium aluminate (LiAlO 2 ), Aluminum-2050 alloy, Aluminum-8090, Aluminum-2095, lithium hydride (LiH), and lithium fluoride (LiF). Lithium aluminate and aluminum-2050 provided comparable sensitivity profiles when compared to lithium carbonate and can be used instead if lithium carbonate cannot be readily procured. After a broad material study, lithium carbonate outperformed any alternative material with a balance in affordability and workability. The assessment of experimental uncertainties of the non-absorber and absorber components was predicted to be 0.00089 and 0.00093 Δk eff , respectively. The largest uncertainties may be reduced with precision dimensional inspection of the components. Many of the parts and equipment for IER 575 have already been fabricated or procured for previous projects and therefore do not contribute significantly to the overall cost of this experiment. This includes the Jemima plates and Comet critical assembly machine, which are existing NCSP assets, as well as the aluminum platen and polyethylene reflector rings, which were fabricated and authorized for the TEX experiment involving HEU with polyethylene. Lithium carbonate containers will be procured by LANL and will be filled by LLNL. The total material costs for TEX-Li experiments are estimated to be on the order of $\$$47,400. Precision inspection, including dimensional, mass, density, and impurity, is recommended for all components for an estimated cost of $\$$12,000.

35Cl↗

Robust Vector BOTDA Signal Processing with Probabilistic Machine Learning

This paper presents a novel probabilistic machine learning (PML) framework to estimate the Brillouin frequency shift (BFS) from both Brillouin gain and phase spectra of a vector Brillouin optical time-domain analysis (VBOTDA). The PML framework is used to predict the Brillouin frequency shift (BFS) along the fiber and to assess its predictive uncertainty. We compare the predictions obtained from the proposed PML model with a conventional curve fitting method and evaluate the BFS uncertainty and data processing time for both methods. The proposed method is demonstrated using two BOTDA systems: (i) a BOTDA system with a 10 km sensing fiber and (ii) a vector BOTDA with a 25 km sensing fiber. The PML framework provides a pathway to enhance the VBOTDA system performance.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Explainable Bayesian Neural Network for Probabilistic Transient Stability Analysis Considering Wind Energy

While several data-driven models have been developed for transient stability assessment, how to consider the uncertainties from load and renewable generations and provide interpretation of data-driven assessment results are still open. This paper proposes an explainable Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) for probabilistic transient stability assessment (TSA). By extracting the uncertainties from loads and wind farms, the BNN model can make a reliable prediction and quantify the prediction uncertainties. We also develop the Gradient Shap algorithm to make the global and local explanations for the probabilistic TSA model, a significant advantage over existing black-box data-driven methods. Numerical results on the modified IEEE 39-bus system show that the proposed method outperforms the existing methods in terms of prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification capabilities. The explainability of the proposed method allows system operators to design preventive controls for enhancing system stability.

Bayesian Neural Network↗

Unpacking model inadequacy: The quantification of silver release from TRISO fuel by considering empirical and mechanistic approaches

Increasing adoption of the proposed tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel for both advanced and existing reactors makes it critical to assess and address any uncertainties and inadequacies of TRISO fission product release models. Model inadequacy stems from simplifications made to the computational model when compared to the experiments. The modeling and simulation efforts conducted using the BISON fuel performance code, along with the experimental campaigns carried out under the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program, afford a unique opportunity to conduct a rigorous modeling inadequacy assessment within the Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework. Here, this study compares the standard Bayesian framework against the Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) framework, which explicitly represents modeling inadequacy, in regard to UQ for TRISO silver release models. For this purpose, both the traditional Arrhenius equation fitted to experimental data and the more advanced lower-length-scale (LLS)-informed model, which considers microstructure information, are independently considered. Applying the inverse UQ process on the AGR-2 and -3/4 datasets revealed modeling inadequacy to be the most dominant source of uncertainty. Experimental noise uncertainty is also significant; however, model parameter uncertainty can be considered negligible. Interestingly, both the Arrhenius equation and the LLS-informed model demonstrated similar levels of modeling inadequacy. For the forward predictive UQ, the KOH framework improved both the accuracy and quality of quantified uncertainties in comparison to the standard Bayesian framework. This is true for both the Arrhenius equation and the LLS-informed model. In comparing these modeling approaches, both demonstrated similar performance at the engineering scale, while the LLS-informed model expectedly outperformed the Arrhenius equation at the mesoscale. These conclusions highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for modeling inadequacy in the UQ process, and reinforce the need for continuous refinement of physics-based models in order to address the modeling inadequacy.

Advanced reactors↗

Evidential Deep Learning for Probabilistic Modelling of Extreme Storm Events

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods play an important role in reducing errors in weather forecasting. Conventional approaches in UQ for weather forecasting rely on generating an ensemble of forecasts from physics-based simulations to estimate the uncertainty. However, it is computationally expensive to generate many forecasts to predict real-time extreme weather events. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) is an uncertainty-aware deep learning approach designed to provide confidence about its predictions using only one forecast. It treats learning as an evidence acquisition process where more evidence is interpreted as increased predictive confidence. We apply EDL to storm forecasting using real-world weather datasets and compare its performance with traditional methods. Our findings indicate that EDL not only reduces computational overhead but also enhances predictive uncertainty. This method opens up novel opportunities in research areas such as climate risk assessment, where quantifying the uncertainty about future climate is crucial.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗