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DOE OSTI2023

Variable renewable energy deployment in low-emission scenarios: The role of technology cost and value

While rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies, namely wind and solar PV, is often projected in 2C pathways generated by integrated assessment models, there is a wide range in projected VRE deployment by mid-century. Such differences could be the result of differences in assumptions about future technology costs and/or differences in model approaches for capturing other aspects of technology competitiveness. Here we introduce a consistent competitiveness metric, profitability-adjusted levelized cost of electricity (or PLCOE), to an integrated assessment model (EPPA) to evaluate the representation of technology competition, including VRE, in low-emission scenarios. We show that representing the value of technology (alongside cost) may significantly impact VRE deployment relative to scenarios without such an adjustment. In addition, we show that varying VRE costs by about 35% in 2050 results in differences in VRE deployment that span much of the range in outcomes (over the same period) observed in likely 2C scenarios assessed by the IPCC, suggesting that both cost and value are key drivers of VRE deployment in such scenarios. Given the central role that VRE technologies play in the electricity mix across most scenarios, we also find that alternative cost assumptions for VRE technologies can lead to changes in electricity prices, the associated demand for electricity, and total final and primary energy consumption. However, the demand for fuels other than electricity is relatively insensitive to VRE assumptions in the 2C scenarios considered here.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimating the economic value of hydropeaking externalities in regulated rivers

Hydropower is a flexible form of electricity generation providing both baseload and balancing power to accommodate intermittent renewables in the energy mix. However, hydropower also generates various externalities. This study investigates individuals' preferences for policies aiming to reduce short-term regulations (i.e., hydropeaking in regulated rivers) while accounting for associated externalities with a discrete choice experiment. This is the first valuation study focusing on hydropeaking that considers both negative and positive externalities. The results imply that most individuals prefer stronger restrictions on short-term regulations to mitigate local environmental impacts. Individuals especially value improvements in recreational use, fish stocks, and the ecological state. On the other hand, potential increases in CO 2 emissions are linked with a clear disutility. The estimated benefits obtained from an improved state of the river environment due to such restrictions exceed the disutility caused by increased CO 2 emissions. Furthermore, the results also reveal unobserved preference heterogeneity among individuals, which should be accounted for in the willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimation using a model specification with correlated utility coefficients. Overall, the findings can inform policy-makers and environmental managers on the economic value of hydropeaking externalities and further guide the sustainable management of rivers regulated for hydropower generation.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Chemical-free production of multiple high-value bioproducts from metabolically engineered transgenic sugarcane ‘oilcane’ bagasse and their recovery using nanofiltration

Bioenergy crops have potential for being a sustainable and renewable feedstock for biofuels and various value- added bioproducts. The study utilizes recently developed transgenic sugarcane (‘oilcane’) bagasse for chemical- free coproduction of high-value bioproducts, i.e., furfurals, HMF, acetic acid, cellulosic sugars, and vegetative lipids. Hydrothermal pretreatment was optimized at 210°C for 5 min to coproduce 6.91%, 2.67%, 5.07%, 2.42% and 37.82% (w/w) furfurals, HMF, acetic acid, vegetative lipids, and cellulosic sugars, respectively from lignocellulosic biomass. Additionally, nanofiltration system in-series was successfully established to recover sugars, furfurals, HMF, and acetic acid from the pretreatment liquor. 1st nanofiltration with Duracid NF mem- brane rejected ~99% sugars. Concentrated sugars with significantly reduced inhibitory products were obtained in retentate for fermentation. 2nd nanofiltration with NF90 membrane used permeate of 1st nanofiltration as feed and rejected ~ 86% furfurals. Furthermore, the work demonstrates the feasibility of coproducing and recovering multiple biochemicals from lignocellulosic biomass.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Group additivity values for the heat of formation of C 2 –C 8 alkanes, alkyl hydroperoxides, and their radicals

A set of 58 group additivity values (GAV) for the calculation of the heat of formation is derived from an extensive and accurate database of 192 ab initio heats of formation. The ab initio values are from companion calculations at the CCSD(T)–F12/cc-pVTZ-F12//B2PLYPD3/cc-pVTZ level of theory employing second order connectivity based hierarchy reference reactions with ANL energies for the reference species. This database of 192 species consists of alkanes (RH), alkyl radicals ($\dot{\text {R}}$), alkyl hydroperoxides (RO 2 H), alkyl-peroxy (R$\dot{\text {O}}$ 2 ) radicals, and hydroperoxy-alkyl ($\dot{\text {Q}}$OOH) radicals of all of the isomers of C 2 –C 5 alkane fuels and a select set of C 6 –C 8 isomers. The GAV and ab initio based enthalpies for this dataset show excellent agreement, with an estimated 2σ uncertainty of 0.9 kcal mol –1 . Among the 58 GAV terms, 40 are refinements of previously reported terms, while 18 are newly developed. These new GAV terms are mainly non-next-nearest neighbor interactions (NNI) and β-corrections. The inclusion of these new groups significantly improves the accuracy of the GAV estimates of the heats of formation. Finally, the updated GAVs can be used with increased confidence to estimate the heats of formation of combustion relevant hydrocarbons and oxygenated hydrocarbons and their corresponding radicals, which are important in predicting low-temperature chemistry and are critical in the development of accurate chemical kinetic models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hedonic Price Estimates of Lake Water Quality: Valued Attribute, Instrumental Variables, and Ecological-Economic Benefits

We estimate the effect of lake water quality on residential housing prices using cross-sectional data on water clarity from 113 lakes across the United States. An instrumental-variables approach is developed to address potential endogeneity bias in the water-clarity variable. Three lake-based physical variables serve as instrumental variables: total nitrogen concentration in lake water, total phosphorus concentration in lake water, and water temperature near the lake surface. The econometric results include three methodological findings: the instruments are valid and strong; the ordinary-least-squares estimate of the coefficient on the water-clarity variable is unbiased; and water clarity is the attribute of water quality valued in the housing market. The estimated water-clarity effect shows that a one-tenth of a meter change in water clarity leads to a one-percent change in housing price, or an elasticity of 0.20 at mean clarity. Coupling this effect with estimates of an ecological production function, a lake-specific benefit index is developed that shows the effect on housing values of bringing lakes into compliance with the US Environmental Protection Agency's regional recommendations for phosphorous concentration in lake waters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Utilization of an Advanced Sensor network to determine fuel heating value and Real-Time net unit heat rate during transient operation

Coal-fired utility boilers are being increasingly used as variable electricity generation to resolve the imbalance in the energy market from the expansion of intermittent renewable energy. The frequent transient operation required to meet residual energy demand has created a challenge for coal-fired units to operate efficiently. This work utilizes an advanced sensor network (ASN) to calculate net unit heat rate (NUHR) of a coal-fired boiler in real time through combustion calculations and statistical correlations to provide the tools for optimizing dynamic operation. Real-time heating values that were necessary to determine fuel input energy to calculate accurate NUHR were found using both fundamental and data-driven methods. Real-time NUHR shows distinct shifts that reflect changes in process conditions that will improve the ability to optimize transient operation. Data-driven heating value correlations had 24% lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the fundamental combustion calculation approach when compared to daily retrospective proximate analysis. Furthermore, the data-driven method RMSE improved by 7% with the inclusion of ASN data. Future work is to validate by comparing unit performance with and without the inclusion of NUHR as a control parameter for the dynamic neural network.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

A consolidated bioprocess design to produce multiple high-value platform chemicals from lignocellulosic biomass and its technoeconomic feasibility

5-Hydroxymethyl furfural (HMF) and furfurals are DOE-listed platform chemicals that can be derived from the renewable carbon in the lignocellulosic biomasses and have the potential to replace petroleum-derived alter- natives. High substrate cost and use of expensive solvents limit the economic feasibility of bio-based HMF production on an industrially relevant scale. The study presents an experimental optimized condition that maximizes the chemical-free production of HMF and furfurals without lowering the yield of total fermentable sugars from Saccharum bagasse. Hydrothermal pretreatment at 210 °C for 15 min yielded approximately 10%, 12%, and 46% of HMF, furfurals, and fermentable sugars per gram of dry biomass, respectively. Additionally, the study proposes a consolidated bioprocess model to produce and recover four high-value bioproducts i.e., HMF, furfurals, ethanol, and acetic acid based on the experimental results and evaluates its technoeconomic feasibility considering HMF as the main product. The minimum selling price (MSP) of HMF was estimated to be 930.6 USD/ t which is competitive with its petroleum-derived precursor alternative p-xylene (1,113 USD/t). The sensitivity analysis performed for the process parameters suggests that pretreatment cost and revenues from coproducts immensely influence the MSP of HMF. The preliminary technoeconomic analysis performed on the consolidated bioprocess design indicates that additional revenue streams from diversified coproducts in biorefineries aid in lowering the MSP of high-value bioproducts.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Remedial effectiveness of a pond biomanipulation: Habitat value and concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls in fish

The fish and plant communities in a pond contaminated with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in East Tennessee, USA, were manipulated to reduce ecological and human-health risk associated with exposure to the chemical contaminants. We evaluated the success of the remedial action using a habitat valuation approach, as well as measuring PCB concentrations in fish. Risk reduction objectives included: alter the fish community to favor fish that do not resuspend, bioaccumulate, or biomagnify PCBs; stabilize contaminated sediments to improve water quality; and stabilize shoreline soils and enhance riparian habitat. Fish targeted for removal included gizzard shad, largemouth bass, and nonnative carp. Reduced PCB concentrations in fish have characterized the new bluegill-dominated community, although a weir-overtopping event led to the need for additional removals of gizzard shad and largemouth bass. Sunfish abundance is high, as was intended. Moreover, amphibian and waterbird diversities have increased in the years following biomanipulation, possibly owing to improvements in the riparian zone and increased structural (vegetation) complexity in both the aquatic and terrestrial environment. Thus, the remedial action has improved aspects of habitat value, and PCB concentrations in sunfish have dropped below the remediation level (risk-based target value) for this pond (1 µg/g in fish fillets or 2.3 µg/g in whole body fish).

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2021

Scattering Matrix Determination in Crystalline Materials from 4D Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy at a Single Defocus Value

Recent work has revived interest in the scattering matrix formulation of electron scattering in transmission electron microscopy as a stepping stone toward atomic-resolution structure determination in the presence of multiple scattering. Here, we discuss ways of visualizing the scattering matrix that make its properties clear. Through a simulation-based case study incorporating shot noise, we shown how regularizing on this continuity enables the scattering matrix to be reconstructed from 4D scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) measurements from a single defocus value. Intriguingly, for crystalline samples, this process also yields the sample thickness to nanometer accuracy with no a priori knowledge about the sample structure. The reconstruction quality is gauged by using the reconstructed scattering matrix to simulate STEM images at defocus values different from that of the data from which it was reconstructed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Complex-Valued Intermolecular Coupling Enables Directional Exciton Transport in Excitonic Circuits

Molecular systems capable of directing the flow of excitons are key to the development and optimization of optoelectronic materials. The transport of excitons across multiple molecules is governed by an intermolecular electronic coupling network. In this article, we consider the effects of complex-valued intermolecular electronic coupling on exciton transport. Here, we present a molecular motif capable of generating complex-valued coupling under excitation with circularly polarized light. We use theoretical modeling and simulation to illustrate how complex coupling can be leveraged to drive the rotational flux of excitons in cyclic molecular networks and direct the exciton population in branched molecular networks.

chromophores↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reacting CO 2 with Light Alkanes to Value-Added Products

Catalytic conversion of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into value-added products is a promising strategy to mitigate global carbon emissions. Concurrently, the shale gas revolution has provided an abundant supply of light alkanes (methane, ethane, propane, and butane), presenting a unique opportunity to employ these underutilized hydrocarbons as an effective, low-cost hydrogen source for CO 2 reduction. In this Perspective, we summarize past efforts, current state, and future opportunities for reacting CO 2 with light alkanes to generate a diverse range of value-added products. Compared with direct alkane conversion, the introduction of CO 2 fundamentally alters reaction thermodynamics and kinetics, enabling selective C–H and C–C bond activation while suppressing catalyst deactivation from coke formation. Building on decades of research in dry reforming and CO 2 -assisted dehydrogenation, recent advances in catalyst design have enabled CO 2 -assisted dehydrogenation processes that approach chemical equilibrium for the selective production of olefins and syngas. Importantly, advances in catalyst design and reactor engineering have further expanded the product scope beyond gas-phase (syngas and olefins) to include liquid-phase (oxygenates and aromatics), and solid-phase products (carbon nanomaterials). We highlight key catalyst design principles for controlling reaction pathways and discuss major challenges and opportunities in developing selective and versatile platforms for the simultaneous upgrading of CO 2 and light alkanes.

CO2↗

DOE OSTI2023

Equilibrated Gas and Carbonate Standard‐Derived Dual (Δ 47 and Δ 48 ) Clumped Isotope Values

Abstract Carbonate clumped isotope geochemistry has primarily focused on mass spectrometric determination of m/z 47 CO 2 for geothermometry, but theoretical calculations and recent experiments indicate paired analysis of the m/z 47 ( 13 C 18 O 16 O) and m/z 48 ( 12 C 18 O 18 O) isotopologues (referred to as Δ 47 and Δ 48 ) can be used to study non‐equilibrium isotope fractionations and refine temperature estimates. We utilize 5,448 Δ 47 and 3,400 Δ 48 replicate measurements of carbonate samples and standards, and 183 Δ 47 and 195 Δ 48 replicate measurements of gas standards from 2015 to 2021 from a multi‐year and multi‐instrument data set to constrain Δ 47 and Δ 48 values for 27 samples and standards, including Devils Hole cave calcite, and study equilibrium Δ 47 ‐Δ 48 , Δ 47 ‐temperature, and Δ 48 ‐temperature relationships. We compare results to previously published findings and calculate equilibrium regressions based on data from multiple laboratories. We report acid digestion fractionation factors, Δ* 63‐47 and Δ* 64‐48 , and account for their dependence on the initial clumped isotope values of the mineral.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Provable bounds for noise-free expectation values computed from noisy samples

Quantum computing has emerged as a powerful computational paradigm capable of solving problems beyond the reach of classical computers. However, today’s quantum computers are noisy, posing challenges to obtaining accurate results. Here, we explore the impact of noise on quantum computing, focusing on the challenges in sampling bit strings from noisy quantum computers and the implications for optimization and machine learning. We formally quantify the sampling overhead to extract good samples from noisy quantum computers and relate it to the layer fidelity, a metric to determine the performance of noisy quantum processors. Further, we show how this allows us to use the conditional value at risk of noisy samples to determine provable bounds on noise-free expectation values. We discuss how to leverage these bounds for different algorithms and demonstrate our findings through experiments on real quantum computers involving up to 127 qubits. The results show strong alignment with theoretical predictions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ethanol as a hydrogen carrier with a value-added co-product

Traditional liquid organic hydrogen carriers rely on return/re-charge of the carrier and financial subsidy. We show that ethanol, available at scale from fermentation, can be a revenue-positive hydrogen carrier, owing to the value of its potassium acetate co-product, itself an emerging fertilizer. Traditional liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHCs) rely on return/re-charge of the carrier and financial subsidy. We show here that ethanol, available at scale from fermentation, can be a revenue-positive hydrogen carrier, owing to the value of its potassium acetate co-product, itself an emerging fertilizer.

Rander, Andrew R↗

DOE OSTI2022

Forward-Looking State-of-the-Art Review on Earned Value Management Systems: The Disconnect between Academia and Industry

Earned value management (EVM) is a project management approach that can enhance the probability of project success. It is applied widely across different industry sectors (e.g., energy, aerospace, construction, defense, and manufacturing), generally through the use of an earned value management system (EVMS). A holistic and up-to-date literature review on EVM and EVMS does not exist. A literature review can provide a comprehensive perspective on the topic, identifying and summarizing the existing body of knowledge, as a foundation to advance the state of practice of EVM/EVMS. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to investigate the EVM/EVMS state of the art by critically reviewing academic and industry publications, with a specific focus on the maturity of EVMS and the environment surrounding its implementation. By performing a systematic literature review, the authors identified 600 publications since the inception of the EVM concept in 1962, and then narrowed down this list to 160 relevant publications from the last decade for closer review. The findings include the discovery of eight emergent themes. Of these themes, “forecasting/prediction” constitutes the largest portion of the recent literature, followed by “application of EVMS.” One interesting finding is that EVMS maturity, although being a critical topic, is only discussed in one publication. Publications focused on EVM/EVMS have increased in the last decade and significant differences were found between academia and industry literature in terms of the limitations and extensions of EVM/EVMS, EVMS environment, and compliance. A key finding is that designing a reliable EVMS should combine both technical and social aspects of implementation. This forward-looking paper provides a state-of-the-art review while highlighting gaps in the existing EVM/EVMS body of knowledge and introducing new perspectives to support EVMS research and application.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Novel Earned Value Management System Maturity Framework and Its Relation to Project Performance

Earned value management systems (EVMS) are used by industry practitioners to successfully manage projects and programs; however, there has been no past study to characterize and evaluate the impact of EVMS maturity on project performance. This paper introduces a novel framework, developed to measure the EVMS maturity, composed of 56 attributes arrayed across ten subprocesses, which together make up an integrated project/program management system. This paper describes how the framework was conceived and developed, based on literature review and data collected from industry workshops. Then, it examines the relationship between EVMS maturity and ten project performance metrics through statistical analyses. The study analyzed project data from 35 projects and programs worth over $21.8 billion in total cost. For this sample, results showed statistically significant differences between projects with high and low EVMS maturity; on average, projects exhibiting high EVMS maturity have 54% less cost overruns and 19% less change orders versus their performance measurement baseline. Higher maturity projects and programs also achieve better customer satisfaction, meet business objectives more often, and are more often in compliance with EVMS standards and guidelines. This paper contributes to the body of knowledge by providing a practical and novel framework for assessing the maturity of earned value management systems. Practitioners can use the framework to improve their integrated project and program management.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Battery-powered bargains? Assessing electric vehicle resale value in the United States

Abstract The resale market will play a critical role in expanding plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) adoption to middle- and lower-income households. Understanding PEV depreciation trends in comparison to those of conventional gasoline vehicles (CVs) is critical for assessing PEV affordability and informing relevant policy, such as subsidies for used PEVs. We deliver comprehensive, high-resolution estimates of value retention rates at the make-model level in the United States for battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and CVs using a database of 9 million used cars listed online between 2016 and 2022. While BEVs and PHEVs have depreciated at faster rates than CVs, this trend is changing, with newer model year BEVs and those with larger ranges have significantly higher retention rates than older model years with smaller ranges. Tesla BEVs are a notable exception following the opposite trend, with earlier model years holding their value better than newer model years. Subsidized BEVs in the new market are associated with lower prices for the same model in the resale market, with the $7500 federal subsidy translating to a 3% lower resale price on average. Finally, disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic have affected affordability across all vehicles, with mean listing prices rising 37% and 39% for CVs and BEVs, respectively, from January 2020 to March 2022 in inflation-adjusted 2019 dollars.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Computation of the expectation value of the spin operator S^ 2 for the spin-flip Bethe–Salpeter equation

Spin-flip (SF) methods applied to excited-state approaches like the Bethe–Salpeter equation allow access to the excitation energies of open-shell systems, such as molecules and defects in solids. The eigenstates of these solutions, however, are generally not eigenstates of the spin operator S^ 2 . Even for simple cases where the excitation vector is expected to be, for example, a triplet state, the value of S^ 2 may be found to differ from 2.00; this difference is called 'spin contamination'. The expectation values S^ 2 must be computed for each excitation vector, to assist with the characterization of the particular excitation and to determine the amount of spin contamination of the state. Here, our aim is to provide for the first time in the SF methods literature a comprehensive resource on the derivation of the formulas for S^ 2 as well as its computational implementation. After a brief discussion of the theory of the SF Bethe–Salpeter equation (BSE) and some examples further illustrating the need for calculating S^ 2 , we present the derivation for the general equation for computing S^ 2 with the eigenvectors from an SF-BSE calculation, how it is implemented in a Python script, and timing information on how this calculation scales with the size of the SF-BSE Hamiltonian.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗