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At least 199 records · Page 11

Managing negative values is reservoir inflow computation: A case study

Reservoir inflow is conventionally estimated using the water balance method, which involves the reservoir release and the change in storage during the period considered. As a result, the estimated inflow may sometimes be negative as the errors involved in each input variable build-up to the output. In our study, the fleet data was provided by the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) for their Norris Hydropower facility. Unlike the flow release data, which was readily accessible, the change in storage had to be calculated using the reservoir elevation and volume relationship. The original inflow estimates produced a wide range of negative values with large outliers, making it difficult to visualize the current trends. This paper describes a methodology to remove the negative values encountered during the inflow computation, and the results were analyzed by correlating with the nearby streamflow gaging stations.

Shibu, Asha↗

Using intrahost single nucleotide variant data to predict SARS-CoV-2 detection cycle threshold values

Over the last four years, each successive wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has been caused by variants with mutations that improve the transmissibility of the virus. Despite this, we still lack tools for predicting clinically important features of the virus. In this study, we show that it is possible to predict the PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values from clinical detection assays using sequence data. Ct values often correspond with patient viral load and the epidemiological trajectory of the pandemic. Using a collection of 36,335 high quality genomes, we built models from SARS-CoV-2 intrahost single nucleotide variant (iSNV) data, computing XGBoost models from the frequencies of A, T, G, C, insertions, and deletions at each position relative to the Wuhan-Hu-1 reference genome. Our best model had an R 2 of 0.604 [0.593–0.616, 95% confidence interval] and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 5.247 [5.156–5.337], demonstrating modest predictive power. Overall, we show that the results are stable relative to an external holdout set of genomes selected from SRA and are robust to patient status and the detection instruments that were used. This study highlights the importance of developing modeling strategies that can be applied to publicly available genome sequence data for use in disease prevention and control.

COVID19↗

Data and scripts from: “Denoising autoencoder for reconstructing sensor observation data and predicting evapotranspiration: noisy and missing values repair and uncertainty quantification”

This data package includes data and scripts from the manuscript “Denoising autoencoder for reconstructing sensor observation data and predicting evapotranspiration: noisy and missing values repair and uncertainty quantification”.The study addressed common challenges faced in environmental sensing and modeling, including uncertain input data, missing sensor observations, and high-dimensional datasets with interrelated but redundant variables. Point-scaled meteorological and soil sensor observations were perturbed with noises and missing values, and denoising autoencoder (DAE) neural networks were developed to reconstruct the perturbed data and further predict evapotranspiration. This study concluded that (1) the reconstruction quality of each variable depends on its cross-correlation and alignment to the underlying data structure, (2) uncertainties from the models were overall stronger than those from the data corruption, and (3) there was a tradeoff between reducing bias and reducing variance when evaluating the uncertainty of the machine learning models.This package includes:(1) Four ipython scripts (.ipynb): “DAE_train.ipynb” trains and evaluates DAE neural networks, “DAE_predict.ipynb” makes predictions from the trained DAE models, “ET_train.ipynb” trains and evaluates ET prediction neural networks, and “ET_predict.ipynb” makes predictions from trained ET models.(2) One python file (.py): “methods.py” includes all user-defined functions and python codes used in the ipython scripts.(3) A “sub_models” folder that includes five trained DAE neural networks (in pytorch format, .pt), which could be used to ingest input data before being fed to the downstream ET models in ‘ET_train.ipynb” or ‘ET_predict.ipynb’.(4) Two data files (.csv). Daily meteorological, vegetation, and soil data is in “df_data.csv”, where “df_meta.csv” contains the location and time information of “df_data.csv”. Each row (index) in “df_meta.csv” corresponds to each row in “df_data.csv”. These data files are formatted to follow the data structure requirements and be directly used in the ipython scripts, and they have been shuffled chronologically to train machine learning models. The meteorological and soil data was collected using point sensors between 2019-2023 at(4.a) Three shrub-dominated field sites in East River, Colorado (named “ph1”, “ph2” and “sg5” in “df_meta.csv”, where “ph1” and “ph2” were located at PumpHouse Hillslopes, and “sg5” was at Snodgrass Mountain meadow) and(4.b) One outdoor, mesoscale, and herbaceous-dominated experiment in Berkeley, California (named “tb” in “df_meta.csv”, short for Smartsoils Testbed at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab).- See "df_data_dd.csv" and "df_meta_dd.csv" for variable descriptions and the Methods section for additional data processing steps. See "flmd.csv" and "README.txt" for brief file descriptions.- All ipython scripts and python files are written in and require PYTHON language software.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of the ARM Lagrangian Large-Scale Forcing Data (ARMLAGTRAJ) Value-Added Product Based on the lagtraj Framework

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) large-scale forcing data developed based on the constrained variational analysis (VARANAL) value-added product (VAP) (Zhang and Lin 1997, Zhang et al. 2001, Xie et al. 2004, Tang et al. 2019) has been widely used for single-column models (SCMs), cloud-resolving models (CRMs), and large-eddy simulation models (LESs) to understand and improve physical processes in models. Recently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) ARM user facility conducted several major field campaigns using ship-based moving observational platforms. For example, the Marine ARM GPCI Investigation of Clouds (MAGIC) field campaign focused on the role of subtropical marine-boundary layer (MBL) clouds, and the Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) field campaign aimed to improve understanding of the coupled climate systems in the Arctic. Observations from moving platforms are critical to provide a comprehensive characterization of coupled-system processes associated with all stages of the cloud and/or sea-ice life cycle. Traditional ARM large-scale forcing data have been developed at fixed locations. They need to be extended to include these moving platforms to address data needs for ship-based field campaigns or to support LES modeling in a Lagrangian framework. With these considerations in mind, we develop ARM-type Lagrangian large-scale forcing data sets based on the lagtraj framework (Boeing et al. 2020) with notable enhancements in generating forcings that are more suitable for ARM field campaigns. The lagtraj is a novel tool that generates forcings for LES and SCM simulation in both Lagrangian and Eulerian perspective. This technical report focuses on the major changes we performed on the lagtraj algorithm and provides an overview of the ARM Lagrangian Large-Scale Forcing Data (ARMLAGTRAJ) value-added products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Formatting and V&V of Consistent 238,240−24 2Pu $\overline{v}_p$ Evaluated Mean Values and Covariances

This report is in answer to the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program FY24 quarter 4 milestone that requires: “Format and V&V nu-bar means and covariances” for 238,240-242 Pu average prompt fission neutron multiplicities, $\overline{ν}$ p , that were obtained by a consistent evaluation leveraging the fission-event generator CGMF and a detailed uncertainty quantification of experimental data. It is described how nuclear data mean values and covariances were formatted using ENDFtk. Implementing the new 238,240-242 Pu $\overline{ν}$ p into the ENDF/B-VIII.1β 4 library leads to only small overall changes in criticality values of the Jezebel, Dirty Jezebel, Jupiter-001, Jupiter-002, EUCLID 3x2 and EUCLID 8x1 critical assemblies. Simulated k eff uncertainties due to $\overline{ν}$ p covariances change only little if cross-isotope covariances are considered or not for those assemblies with low percentage content of minor Pu isotopes. However, for the Dirty Jezebel critical assembly, that has a sizeable 240 Pu and non-negligible 241 Pu content, the simulated k eff uncertainties due to considering or neglecting cross-isotope $\overline{ν}$ p covariances is 443 versus 374 pcm.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Extracted Radar Columns and In Situ Sensors (RadCLss) Value-Added Product Report

In order to validate precipitation, in 2010 the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility procured 3- and 5-cm wavelength radars for documenting the macrophysical, microphysical, and dynamical structure of precipitating systems. To maximize the scientific impact, ARM supported the development of an application chain to correct for various phenomena in order to retrieve the “point” values of moments of the radar spectrum and polarimetric measurements. In estimation from ARM radars, a workflow was created to directly compare radar “point” values with various in situ observations at the surface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Co-synthesis of Hydrogen and High-Value Carbon Products from Methane Pyrolysis

The ARPA-E Methane Pyrolysis Project successfully developed a scalable technology for hydrogen production with low-CO x emission through methane pyrolysis, co-producing high-value carbon nanotubes (CNTs). The project focused on optimizing reactor design, enhancing catalyst performance, and assessing techno-economic feasibility to create a commercially viable and environmentally sustainable process. The fluidized bed reactor achieved over 90% methane (CH 4 ) conversion by using a 5% CO 2 co-feed, which stabilizes carbon yields and minimizes catalyst deactivation. This setup allowed for continuous operation across ten cycles, each consisting of a 14-minute pyrolysis phase followed by a 10-minute dislodging phase to remove a fraction of the accumulated carbon, resulting in stable performance and high-quality CNT production. In parallel, monolith reactors coated with Fe demonstrated a sustained methane conversion of 73% while producing CNTs with high crystallinity. Although promising for continuous operation, monolith reactors face challenges in coating durability and scalability, highlighting areas for further optimization in commercial applications. Catalyst formulation played a key role in enhancing process efficiency. The core catalyst used was 5%Fe/Al 2 O 3 (wt%), optimized through wet impregnation, which improved CNT morphology, yielding longer and more uniform CNTs. The catalyst's performance was further enhanced by adding promoters: 2.5 wt% Ni increased methane conversion close to the thermodynamic limit, while 2.5 wt% Mn improved CNT alignment and crystallinity, and 1.5 wt% NaCl boosted CNT morphology but slightly lowered methane conversion. These adjustments allowed the reactor to maintain high methane conversion while producing high-quality CNTs, enabling stable performance over multiple cycles. To address carbon buildup and ensure uninterrupted operation, a pneumatic conveying tube was implemented for effective carbon dislodging in the fluidized bed configuration. CO 2 and H 2 O co-feeds were also introduced to enhance carbon removal, with CO 2 boosting CNT yield by approximately 15%. This setup enabled stable reactor operation across multiple cycles, preventing clogging and minimizing catalyst wear, making the process suitable for industrial scaling. Techno-economic analysis (TEA) projected hydrogen production costs between $\$$1.00 and $\$$1.64 per kilogram, with CNT values assumed at $\$$375/ton and $\$$100/ton. The life cycle assessment showed that CO 2 emissions could be as low as 0.64 kg CO 2 e/kg H 2 at 95% methane conversion assuming an electricity input of 50 kg CO 2 e/MWh. Even at 50% methane conversion, emissions remained below 1 kg CO 2 e/kg H 2 , demonstrating the process's low-emission potential and making it a viable alternative to traditional steam methane reforming. Overall, the results from this project demonstrate the feasibility of a pyrolysis process where carbon is continuously removed from the catalyst surface and hydrogen is continuously produced until a catalyst regeneration step is required to fully clean the catalyst surface and renew catalyst performance. Major open challenges are related to avoiding the loss of catalyst material in the dislodged carbon during fluidized bed conditions, since our best result demonstrated a carbon purity of ~70 wt. % (rest being iron and alumina). A monolith reactor was used to favor dislodgement of carbon compared to fluidized bed conditions but our results do not demonstrate an advantage of the monolith configuration. Catalyst performance was similar to fluidized bed conditions with slower deactivation rates overall, but we could not observe carbon dislodging in any of the tens of experiments that were run at Stanford. Our results show that the most relevant areas of improvement are related to the fundamental understanding of the iron-carbon interface for dislodging, and the development of catalyst that can produce CNTs via a base-growth mechanism such that catalyst is not lost in the dislodgement steps. The final report documents all findings and methodologies in detail, providing a valuable resource for the scientific community. By building on these results, researchers can further advance methane pyrolysis technology, moving toward a more sustainable, scalable pathway for hydrogen production. This work lays the foundation for future research and commercial efforts to reduce emissions in hydrogen production while generating valuable carbon products.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Challenges and Opportunities for Electric Utility Modeling and Asset Valuation Frameworks: Case Study on Valuing New Pumped Storage Hydropower

Asset valuation by electric utilities is becoming increasingly difficult in the rapidly changing electric sector. Rapid deployment of variable generation and inverter-based storage systems along with uncertain demand growth, climate, policies, and other factors create a challenging environment for understanding the value proposition of a new potential asset. This report describes an effort between the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and three U.S. Department of Energy laboratories to perform a detailed review of utility modeling and analysis practices for asset valuation and identify challenges and opportunities for advancing its methods into the future. It focuses on a case study of new potential pumped storage hydropower (PSH) because of growing interest in new PSH capacity to provide energy balancing, firm capacity, and a range of ancillary services. Staff from the DOE labs conducted systematic interviews about current practices in capacity expansion modeling, production-cost modeling, hydrological modeling, and transmission stability modeling while also discussing how scenario analysis is conducted and how models and data are integrated. The effort resulted in a set of model, integration, and scenario recommendations that could be valuable to TVA, other utilities, system operators, and other stakeholders conducting integrated grid analysis. Individual model recommendations suggest exploring computational tradeoffs with detail and resolution across spatiotemporal structure, supply- and demand-side details, transmission overlays, market interactions, and ancillary services. Automated processes to pass data between models and conduct larger scenario suites could also enhance valuation practices by enabling a more consistent study of asset value across a broader range of uncertain future grid conditions where PSH could be particularly valuable. TVA and other industry stakeholders can learn from and adapt applied research-grade methods developed by DOE laboratories and other research institutions to improve decision making and accelerate progress towards a reliable, economic, sustainable energy system.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Seeing values for LSST strategy simulations

The opsim4 operations simulation program for the LSST astronomical survey uses a database of seeing values covering the range of times to besimulated. Idescribethe creation of such a database using Dual Image Motion Monitor(DIMM)datacollected at Cerro Pachon from 2004-03-17 to 2019-10-07. In times during which the data overlap, I compare the distribution of DIMM seeing values to the seeing measured in DECamimages,takenatasite 10kmaway. Becauseinstrumentalproblemsinthe DIMMmay indicate unreliablemeasurements,cutsonimagequality(asindicatedby the measured Strehlratio)wereexplored. TheDIMMhassignificantgaps,soImodel thedata(withandwithoutcutsonStrehlratio)andgenerateartificialdatainthegaps according to the model. The model consists of a sinusoidal variation with a period of one year, an autoregressive (AR1) model for variations in mean seeing from one night to the next, and another AR1 model for variations on a 5 minute timescale. I create four databases according to thisprocedure, twobasedonDIMMdatastarting 2006-01-01 (with and without a Strehl ratio cut), and two starting 2009-01-01. I then run opsim simulations using each, and an otherwise identical simulation using the default seeing database, and explore the differences

Neilsen, Eric H. [Fermilab]↗

A Hypergeometric Mean Value

Generalization of hypergeometric mean value from hypergeometric function without loss of homogeneity - derivation and properties of hypergeometric mean value

HYPERGEOMETRIC FUNCTION↗

A hypergeometric mean value.

Hypergeometric mean value, showing expression for mean of order t of series of positive values with positive weights as limiting case

HYPERGEOMETRIC FUNCTION↗

Approximation of expectation values.

Approximation of expectation values for nonenergy properties via perturbation theory, obtaining values for molecular polarizability

POLARIZATION CHARACTERISTICS↗

Bias and spread in extreme value theory measurements of probability of error

Extreme value theory is examined to explain the cause of the bias and spread in performance of communications systems characterized by low bit rates and high data reliability requirements, for cases in which underlying noise is Gaussian or perturbed Gaussian. Experimental verification is presented and procedures that minimize these effects are suggested. Even under these conditions, however, extreme value theory test results are not particularly more significant than bit error rate tests.

Smith, J. G.↗

Atlas of electron content values observed at Urbana, Illinois, 1 December 1967 - 30 December 1970

Ionospheric electron content versus local time data deduced from Faraday rotation observations of ATS-III geostationary satellite signals at Urbana, Illinois are reported. The data are presented in two forms. Values of subionospheric latitude (SILAT) and subionospheric longitude (SILON) are in degrees north and degrees west, respectively. These are computed on the basis of 350 km for the mean ionospheric height, which value is also used for the calculation of the geometric-magnetic factor, required for the conversion of the measured Faraday rotation angle to electron content. Entries of zero for the electron content in the tables represent no data for those times.

Flaherty, B. J.↗

Potential value of satellite cloud pictures in weather modification projects

Satellite imagery for one project season of cloud seeding programs in the northern Great Plains has been surveyed for its probable usefulness in weather modification programs. The research projects and the meteorological information available are described. A few illustrative examples of satellite imagery analysis are cited and discussed, along with local observations of weather and the seeding decisions made in the research program. This analysis indicates a definite correlation between satellite-observed cloud patterns and the types of cloud seeding activity undertaken, and suggests a high probability of better and/or earlier decisions if the imagery is available in real time. Infrared imagery provides better estimates of cloud height which can be useful in assessing the possibility of a hail threat. The satellite imagery appears to be of more value to area-seeding projects than to single-cloud seeding experiments where the imagery is of little value except as an aid in local forecasting and analysis.

Biswas, K. R.↗

Reduction of the Dirichlet problem to an initial value problem.

Although the derivation is concerned with solutions for plane regions with prescribed boundary values, the approach presented could by easily generalized to higher dimensions. The initial-value method is derived by a combination of invariant imbedding techniques and the Fredholm integral equation method of representation of the potential as a function of a dilayer distribution on the boundary of the region in question.

Kalaba, R.↗