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The SARS-CoV-2 Spike Variant D614G Favors an Open Conformational State

The COVID-19 pandemic underwent a rapid transition with the emergence of a dominant viral variant (from the “D-form” to the “G-form”) that carried an amino acid substitution D614G in its “Spike” protein. The G-form is more infectious in vitro and associated with increased viral loads. To gain insight into the molecular-level underpinnings of these characteristics, we employed microsecond all-atom simulations. Here we show that changes in the protein energetics favor a higher population of infection-capable (open) states through release of hydrogen bonds of an asymmetry present in the D-form but not the G-form. Thus, the increased infectivity of the G-form is likely due to a higher rate of profitable binding encounters with the host receptor. It is also predicted to be more neutralization sensitive due to enhanced exposure of the receptor binding domain, a key target region for neutralizing antibodies. These results are significant for vaccine design. The Molecular Dynamics Simulations datasets generated in this study, namely that of the soluble form SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein are made available here. Details of the trajectory and supporting files are given in the README.txt file.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Disparities of Dengue Virus Transmission Risk across the US-Mexican Border Using a Climate Driven Vector-Epidemiological Model

Dengue fever is a mosquito‐borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Although transmission regularly occurs along the border region in Mexico, dengue virus transmission in bordering Arizona has not occurred. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input and Daymet for temperature and supplemental precipitation input, we modeled dengue transmission along a US‐Mexico transect using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Model runs were performed for 5 cities in Sonora, Mexico and southern Arizona. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. For cities with reported dengue case data, the top model simulations that best reproduced dengue case numbers were retained and their parameter values were extracted for comparison. These parameter values were used to run simulations in areas where dengue virus transmission does not occur or where dengue fever case data was unavailable. Additional model runs were performed to reveal how changes in climate or parameter values could alter transmission risk along the transect. The relative influence of climate variability and model parameters on dengue virus transmission is assessed to help public health workers prepare location specific infection prevention strategies.

Morin, Cory↗

AgMIP Local, National and Global Assessments of Food System Challenges in A Changing Climate

Food systems connect a diverse network of stakeholders around the world, with complex dynamics governing production, processing, transportation, trade and consumption of food products. Extreme conditions can disrupt multiple components of the food system, with systemic connections providing structure that can both buffer and exacerbate risks. Climate change is shifting current practices in agricultural production and the broader food system, encouraging shifts toward more diverse value chains capable of drawing from multiple food producing regions to reduce the chance that an entire value chain be subject to simultaneous impacts. The IPCC Working Group I report assessed that heat waves, fires, floods and severe storms are becoming more pronounced and widespread with each degree of global warming, increasing food system risk. Food system disruptions can also come from outside the climate system, including from viral outbreaks, geopolitical conflict and socioeconomic changes. This presentation will highlight how the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) develops modeling approaches that connect climate, biophysical and socioeconomic models in order to capture complex responses of the food system and potential interventions by diverse stakeholders in the public and private sectors. Models are applied on a range of scales that match decision contexts. These include households in specific agricultural production regions (e.g., within a country), national-level policymakers considering policies, sustainability and development priorities for a country’s agricultural sector, and global food market models that balance production and consumption around the world with competition for land, water, energy and sustainability priorities. Models are capable of capturing many important responses, but further development is needed to represent key systemic risks and the possibility for additional interventions beyond the farm gate. Improved food system models will provide important insights into our society’s ability to cope with climate change, as well as our ability to identify agricultural adaptation and mitigation opportunities to reduce overall risk.

Food systems↗

Single Amino Acid Mutations Affect Zika Virus Replication In Vitro and Virulence In Vivo

The 2014–2016 Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas resulted in large deposits of next-generation sequencing data from clinical samples. This resource was mined to identify emerging mutations and trends in mutations as the outbreak progressed over time. Information on transmission dynamics, prevalence, and persistence of intra-host mutants, and the position of a mutation on a protein were then used to prioritize 544 reported mutations based on their ability to impact ZIKV phenotype. Using this criteria, six mutants (representing naturally occurring mutations) were generated as synthetic infectious clones using a 2015 Puerto Rican epidemic strain PRVABC59 as the parental backbone. The phenotypes of these naturally occurring variants were examined using both cell culture and murine model systems. Mutants had distinct phenotypes, including changes in replication rate, embryo death, and decreased head size. In particular, a NS2B mutant previously detected during in vivo studies in rhesus macaques was found to cause lethal infections in adult mice, abortions in pregnant females, and increased viral genome copies in both brain tissue and blood of female mice. Additionally, mutants with changes in the region of NS3 that interfaces with NS5 during replication displayed reduced replication in the blood of adult mice. This analytical pathway, integrating both bioinformatic and wet lab experiments, provides a foundation for understanding how naturally occurring single mutations affect disease outcome and can be used to predict the of severity of future ZIKV outbreaks. To determine if naturally occurring individual mutations in the Zika virus epidemic genotype affect viral virulence or replication rate in vitro or in vivo, we generated an infectious clone representing the epidemic genotype of stain Puerto Rico, 2015. Using this clone, six mutants were created by changing nucleotides in the genome to cause one to two amino acid substitutions in the encoded proteins. The six mutants we generated represent mutations that differentiated the early epidemic genotype from genotypes that were either ancestral or that occurred later in the epidemic. We assayed each mutant for changes in growth rate, and for virulence in adult mice and pregnant mice. Three of the mutants caused catastrophic embryo effects including increased embryonic death or significant decrease in head diameter. Three other mutants that had mutations in a genome region associated with replication resulted in changes in in vitro and in vivo replication rates. These results illustrate the potential impact of individual mutations in viral phenotype.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of Vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission Dynamics in Four Metropolitan Areas of the United States

To characterize Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission dynamics in each of the metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) surrounding Dallas, Houston, New York City, and Phoenix in 2020 and 2021, we extended a previously reported compartmental model accounting for effects of multiple distinct periods of non-pharmaceutical interventions by adding consideration of vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants Alpha (lineage B.1.1.7) and Delta (lineage B.1.617.2). For each MSA, we found region-specific parameterizations of the model using daily reports of new COVID-19 cases available from January 21, 2020 to October 31, 2021. In the process, we obtained estimates of the relative infectiousness of Alpha and Delta as well as their takeoff times in each MSA (the times at which sustained transmission began). The estimated infectiousness of Alpha ranged from 1.1x to 1.4x that of viral strains circulating in 2020 and early 2021. The estimated relative infectiousness of Delta was higher in all cases, ranging from 1.6x to 2.1x. The estimated Alpha takeoff times ranged from February 1 to February 28, 2021. The estimated Delta takeoff times ranged from June 2 to June 26, 2021. In conclusion, estimated takeoff times are consistent with genomic surveillance data.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Influence of Steric and Electronic Properties of P2 Groups on Covalent Inhibitor Binding to SARS-CoV-2 Main Protease

The main protease (MPro) of SARS-CoV-2 is a critical enzyme required for viral replication, making it a prime target for antiviral drug development. Covalent inhibitors, which form a stable interaction with the catalytic C145, have demonstrated strong inhibition of MPro, but the influence of steric and electronic properties of P2 substituents, designed to engage the S2 substrate-binding subsite within the MPro active site, on inhibitor binding affinity remains underexplored. Here, in this study, we design and characterize two hybrid covalent inhibitors, BBH-3 and BBH-4, and present their X-ray crystallographic structures in complex with MPro, providing molecular insights into how their distinct P2 groups, a dichlorobenzyl moiety in BBH-3 and an adamantyl substituent in BBH-4, affect binding conformation and active site adaptability. Comparative structural analyses with previously characterized inhibitors, including BBH-2 and Mcule-5948770040, reveal how the P2 bulkiness and electronic properties influence active site dynamics, particularly through interactions with the S2 and S5 subsites. The P2 group of BBH-3 induces conformational shifts in the S2 helix and the S5 loop, while BBH-4 displaces M49, stabilizing its binding through hydrophobic interactions. Isothermal titration calorimetry further elucidates the impact of P2 modifications on inhibitor affinity, revealing a delicate balance between enthalpic and entropic contributions. The data demonstrate that BBH-3 exhibits less favorable binding, affirming that dichlorobenzyl substitution at the P2 position has a more negative impact on the affinity for MPro than bulky saturated cyclic groups. This underscores the feature that MPro active site malleability may be accompanied by a conformational strain.

SARS-CoV-2↗

Effect of Passive Administration of Monoclonal Antibodies Recognizing Simian Immunodeficiency Virus (SIV) V2 in CH59-Like Coil/Helical or β -Sheet Conformations on Time of SIV mac251 Acquisition

The monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) NCI05 and NCI09, isolated from a vacci nated macaque that was protected from multiple simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) chal lenges, both target an overlapping, conformationally dynamic epitope in SIV envelope vari able region 2 (V2). Here, we show that NCI05 recognizes a CH59-like coil/helical epitope, whereas NCI09 recognizes a b-hairpin linear epitope. In vitro, NCI05 and, to a lesser extent, NCI09 mediate the killing of SIV-infected cells in a CD4-dependent manner. Compared to NCI05, NCI09 mediates higher titers of antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) to gp120-coated cells, as well as higher levels of trogocytosis, a monocyte function that contributes to immune evasion. We also found that passive administration of NCI05 or NCI09 to macaques did not affect the risk of SIV mac251 acquisition compared to controls, demonstrating that these anti-V2 antibodies alone are not protective. However, NCI05 but not NCI09 mucosal levels strongly correlated with delayed SIV mac251 acquisition, and functional and structural data suggest that NCI05 targets a transient state of the viral spike apex that is partially opened, compared to its prefusion-closed conformation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Metatranscriptomics reveals a shift in microbial community composition and function during summer months in a coastal marine environment

Abstract Temperate coastal marine waters are often thermally stratified from spring through fall but can be dynamic and disrupted by tidal currents and wind‐driven upwelling. These mixing events introduce deeper, cooler water with a higher partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO2) and its associated microbial communities to the surface. Anecdotally, these events impact shellfish hatcheries and farms, warranting improved understanding of changes in composition and activity of marine microbial communities in relation to environmental processes. To characterize both compositional and functional changes associated with abiotic factors, here, we generate a reference metatranscriptome from the Strait of Georgia over representative seasons and analyze metatranscriptomic profiles of the microorganisms present within intake water containing different pCO 2 levels at a shellfish hatchery in British Columbia from June through October. Abiotic factors studied include pH, temperature, alkalinity, aragonite, calcite, and pCO 2 . Community composition changes were observed to occur at broad taxonomic levels and most notably to vary with temperature and pCO 2 . Functional gene expression profiles indicated a strong difference between early (June–July) and late summer (August–October) associated with viral activity. The taxonomic data suggest this could be due to the termination of cyanobacteria and phytoplankton blooms by viral lysis in the late season. Functional analysis indicated fewer differentially expressed transcripts associated with abiotic variables (e.g., pCO 2 ) than with the temporal effect. Microbial composition and activity in these waters vary with both short‐term effects observed alongside abiotic variation and long‐term effects observed across seasons. The analysis of both taxonomy and functional gene expression simultaneously in the same samples by environmental RNA (eRNA metatranscriptomics) provided a more comprehensive view for monitoring water bodies than either would in isolation.

Sutherland, Ben J. G.↗

Assembly and Analysis of Cell-Scale Membrane Envelopes

The march toward exascale computing will enable routine molecular simulation of larger and more complex systems, for example, simulation of entire viral particles, on the scale of approximately billions of atoms-a simulation size commensurate with a small bacterial cell. Anticipating the future hardware capabilities that will enable this type of research and paralleling advances in experimental structural biology, efforts are currently underway to develop software tools, procedures, and workflows for constructing cell-scale structures. Herein, we describe our efforts in developing and implementing an efficient and robust workflow for construction of cell-scale membrane envelopes and embedding membrane proteins into them. A new approach for construction of massive membrane structures that are stable during the simulations is built on implementing a subtractive assembly technique coupled with the development of a structure concatenation tool (fastmerge), which eliminates overlapping elements based on volumetric criteria rather than adding successive molecules to the simulation system. Using this approach, we have constructed two "protocells" consisting of MARTINI coarse-grained beads to represent cellular membranes, one the size of a cellular organelle and another the size of a small bacterial cell. The membrane envelopes constructed here remain whole during the molecular dynamics simulations performed and exhibit water flux only through specific proteins, demonstrating the success of our methodology in creating tight cell-like membrane compartments. Extended simulations of these cell-scale structures highlight the propensity for nonspecific interactions between adjacent membrane proteins leading to the formation of protein microclusters on the cell surface, an insight uniquely enabled by the scale of the simulations. We anticipate that the experiences and best practices presented here will form the basis for the next generation of cell-scale models, which will begin to address the addition of soluble proteins, nucleic acids, and small molecules essential to the function of a cell.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Analysis of the molecular determinants for furin cleavage of the spike protein S1/S2 site in defined strains of the prototype coronavirus murine hepatitis virus (MHV)

We analyzed the spike protein S1/S2 cleavage of selected strains of a prototype coronavirus, mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) by the cellular protease furin, in order to understand the structural requirements underlying the sequence selectivity of the scissile segment. The probability of cleavage of selected MHV strains was first evaluated from furin cleavage scores predicted by the ProP computer software, and then cleavage was measured experimentally with a fluorogenic peptide cleavage assay consisting of S1/S2 peptide mimics and purified furin. We found that in vitro cleavability varied across MHV strains in line with predicted results—but with the notable exception of MHV-A59, which was not cleaved despite a high score predicted for its sequence. Using the known X-Ray structure of furin in complex with a substrate-like inhibitor as an initial structural reference, we carried out molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to learn the modes of binding of the peptides in the furin active site, and the suitability of the complex for initiation of the enzymatic cleavage. We identified the 3D structural requirements of the furin active site configuration that enable bound peptides to undergo cleavage, and the way in which the various strains tested experimentally are fulfilling these requirements. We find that despite some flexibility in the organization of the peptide bound to the active site of the enzyme, the presence of a histidine at P2 of MHV-A59 fails to properly orient the sidechain of His194 of the furin catalytic triad and therefore produces a distortion that renders the peptide/complex structural configuration in the active site incompatible with requirements for cleavage initiation. The Ser/Thr in P1 of MHV-2 and MHV-S has a similar effect of distorting the conformation of the furin active site residues produced by the elimination of the canonical salt-bridge formed by arginine in P1 position. This work informs a study of coronavirus infection and pathogenesis with respect to the function of the viral spike protein, and suggests an important process of viral adaptation and evolution within the spike S1/S2 structural loop.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Estimating the strength of selection for new SARS-CoV-2 variants

Abstract Controlling the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic becomes increasingly challenging as the virus adapts to human hosts through the continual emergence of more transmissible variants. Simply observing that a variant is increasing in frequency is relatively straightforward, but more sophisticated methodology is needed to determine whether a new variant is a global threat and the magnitude of its selective advantage. We present two models for quantifying the strength of selection for new and emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 relative to the background of contemporaneous variants. These methods range from a detailed model of dynamics within one country to a broad analysis across all countries, and they include alternative explanations such as migration and drift. We find evidence for strong selection favoring the D614G spike mutation and B.1.1.7 (Alpha), weaker selection favoring B.1.351 (Beta), and no advantage of R.1 after it spreads beyond Japan. Cutting back data to earlier time horizons reveals that uncertainty is large very soon after emergence, but that estimates of selection stabilize after several weeks. Our results also show substantial heterogeneity among countries, demonstrating the need for a truly global perspective on the molecular epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Trichomonas vaginalis C2-XYPPX-repeat protein with a structured C2 domain displaying dampened flexibility upon binding calcium

C2 domains are ubiquitous membrane-binding modules of ∼130 residues in eukaryotes that are often associated with proteins involved in membrane trafficking and lipid modification. The genome of Trichomonas vaginalis, the most common, non-viral, sexually transmitted human pathogen, encodes eight genes that contain a N-terminal C2 module linked to a XYPPX-repeat domain of more than four XYPPX repeats (C2-XYPPX). While the function of the XYPPX-repeat domain remains unknown, its multiple association with C2 domains in T. vaginalis suggests it is important. Here, the C2 domain from one of these C2-XYPPX-repeat proteins, Tv-C2-1, was structurally and physically characterized using X-ray crystallography and NMR spectroscopy. The crystal structure for Tv-C2-1 shows that this domain shares a fold common to all C2 domains, a compact Greek-key motif composed of eight anti-parallel β-strands in the type-2 topology. An NMR chemical shift perturbation study with Ca 2+ showed that Tv-C2-1 bound two Ca 2+ atoms primarily via two loops (loop-1 and loop-3) on the predicted calcium binding face of the protein with K d s of 58.0 ± 0.1 μM and 232 ± 6 μM. Estimations of the overall rotational correlation time, τ c , in the apo (11.1 ns) and Ca 2+ -bound (9.2 ns) state suggests the protein becomes more compact upon Ca 2+ binding, consistent with a decrease in dynamics in loop-3 and marginally in loop-1 suggested by amide 15 N heteronuclear steady-state { 1 H}- 15 N NOEs. Showing Tv-C2-1 binds calcium and adopts a compact Greek-key motif structure, two primary features of C2 domains, suggests understanding the function of the XYPPX-repeat domain may be warranted.

NMR spectroscopy↗

A split luciferase system for studying coronavirus Mpro dimerization in vitro and in living cells

The main protease enzyme (Mpro) of coronaviruses cleaves the viral polyprotein into functional units essential for virus replication. Prior work has demonstrated that Mpro functions as a homodimer. However, studies on the mechanism of dimerization have been challenging because the purified protease is mostly dimeric, dimerization-defective mutants lack proteolytic activity, and robust cell-based assays have yet to be reported. To enable work on Mpro dimerization, we have developed a quantitative luciferase-based SARS-CoV-2 (SARS2) Mpro biosensor that accurately reports protein dimerization in living cells and, upon purification, also in vitro. Co-transfection of cells with a construct expressing Mpro fused to the 18 kDa LargeBiT of luciferase (LgBiT) and a second construct with Mpro fused to the 1 kDa SmallBiT of luciferase (SmBiT) results in a reconstitution of luciferase activity in a dose-dependent manner that requires conserved residues within the dimerization interface. Proteolytic activity is dispensable for dimerization and, uniquely, a C145A catalytically inactive mutant exhibits enhanced dimerization signal likely due to lower cytotoxicity. Mpro enzymes from multiple different coronaviruses also dimerize in this system, indicating mechanistic conservation. Interestingly, this dimerization biosensor also provides a quantitative read-out of inhibitor-facilitated dimerization. Covalent SARS2 Mpro inhibitors such as nirmatrelvir cause a 3- to 5-fold increase in luciferase activity. Together with corroborating structural, biophysical, and molecular dynamics experiments, our studies support a model in which covalent Mpro inhibitors such as nirmatrelvir simultaneously block catalytic activity and induce allosteric stabilization of the dimeric complex.

SARS-CoV-2 main protease (Mpro/3CLpro)↗

Scale translation yields insights into gas adsorption under nanoconfinement

This work describes a scale-translating simulation framework to investigate gas adsorption behavior in nanoconfined pores. The framework combines molecular simulations (MSs), equation of state (EoS), and lattice Boltzmann (LB) simulations. MSs reveal the physics of methane adsorption in nano-sized pores, where input values of fugacity coefficients are optimized based on EoS predictions. Then, an LB free-energy model, which incorporates a viral EoS, upscales intermolecular forces and estimates adsorption behavior via a proposed fluid–wall interaction model. Armed with the values of the LB interaction parameter as a function of pressure, the LB model is used to predict fluid behavior in irregular nanopores, and the results are validated against reference MS data. The LB model is then used to study adsorption behavior at a continuum scale in representative organic shale nanopores based on finely characterized Vaca Muerta shale samples. Furthermore, the results show that methane adsorption could significantly increase contained fluids by 10%–25% in pores smaller than 20 nm. However, in larger pores (40 nm to 90 nm), adsorption's impact diminishes to 2%–3%, suggesting sorption's negligible role beyond a 40 nm pore size.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Three-Dimensional Engineered High Fidelity Normal Human Lung Tissue-Like Assemblies (TLA) as Targets for Human Respiratory Virus Infections

Unlike traditional two-dimensional (2D) cell cultures, three-dimensional (3D) tissue-like assemblies (TLA) (Goodwin et aI, 1992, 1993, 2000 and Nickerson et aI. , 2001,2002) offer high organ fidelity with the potential to emulate the infective dynamics of viruses and bacteria in vivo. Thus, utilizing NASA micro gravity Rotating Wall Vessel (RWV) technology, in vitro human broncho-epithelial (HBE) TLAs were engineered to mimic in vivo tissue for study of human respiratory viruses. These 3D HBE TLAs were propagated from a human broncho-tracheal cell line with a mesenchymal component (HBTC) as the foundation matrix and either an adult human broncho-epithelial cell (BEAS-2B) or human neonatal epithelial cell (16HBE140-) as the overlying element. Resulting TLAs share several characteristic features with in vivo human respiratory epithelium including tight junctions, desmosomes and cilia (SEM, TEM). The presence of epithelium and specific lung epithelium markers furthers the contention that these HBE cells differentiate into TLAs paralleling in vivo tissues. A time course of infection of these 3D HBE TLAs with human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) wild type A2 strain, indicates that virus replication and virus budding are supported and manifested by increasing virus titer and detection of membrane-bound F and G glycoproteins. Infected 3D HBE TLAs remain intact for up to 12 days compared to infected 2D cultures that are destroyed in 2-3 days. Infected cells show an increased vacuolation and cellular destruction (by transmission electron microscopy) by day 9; whereas, uninfected cells remain robust and morphologically intact. Therefore, the 3D HBE TLAs mimic aspects of human respiratory epithelium providing a unique opportunity to analyze, for the first time, simulated in vivo viral infection independent of host immune response.

Goodwin, T. J.↗

Coupling of electroelastic dynamics and direct contact ultrasonic drying formulation for annular piezoelectric bimorph transducers

A newly developed technique for drying clothes without thermal energy has been developed through the utilization of ultrasonic vibrations from piezoelectric transducers. The novel technique incorporates the actuation of a thin stainless steel disk in contact with wet fabric via annular piezoelectric rings, where water in the liquid form is atomized, transported through microchannels in the disk, and ejected as a mist. In such a system, resonance matching between the actuation portion of the transducer and the portion contacting fabric must be realized, with theoretical results from the developed electromechanical model showing a reduction in energy consumption by 50% when resonance matching is achieved. The electrically coupled distributed parameter model for an annular bimorph piezoelectric transducer is developed for optimization of ultrasonic drying technology. The thickness mode vibrations are shown to dominate the behavior of the system, where the analytically developed model can be optimized to increase the output acceleration of the transducer, thus increasing drying performance. Here, the electromechanical equation developed will be connected to the drying rates of fabrics in contact with said vibrations, where the novelty of the coupled equations and its description of the physics of ultrasonic drying will be discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Impact of Recent Climate Extremes on Mosquito-borne Disease Transmission in Kenya

Climate change and variability influence temperature and rainfall, which impact vector abundance and the dynamics of vector-borne disease transmission. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. Mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, are primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Freshwater availability and temperature affect dengue vector populations via a variety of biological processes and thus influence the ability of mosquitoes to effectively transmit disease. However, the effect of droughts, floods, heat waves, and cold waves is not well understood. Using vector, climate, and dengue disease data collected between 2013 and 2019 in Kenya, this retrospective cohort study aims to elucidate the impact of extreme rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and the risk of arboviral infections. To define extreme periods of rainfall and land surface temperature (LST), we calculated monthly anomalies as deviations from long-term means (1983–2019 for rainfall, 2000–2019 for LST) across four study locations in Kenya. We classified extreme climate events as the upper and lower 10% of these calculated LST or rainfall deviations. Monthly Ae. aegypti abundance was recorded in Kenya using four trapping methods. Blood samples were also collected from children with febrile illness presenting to four field sites and tested for dengue virus using an IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). We found that mosquito eggs and adults were significantly more abundant one month following an abnormally wet month. The relationship between mosquito abundance and dengue risk follows a non-linear association. Our findings suggest that early warnings and targeted interventions during periods of abnormal rainfall and temperature, especially flooding, can potentially contribute to reductions in risk of viral transmission

Aedes aegypti mosquitoes↗

Illuminating the pathways to carbon liberation: a systems approach to characterizing the consequential unknowns of carbon transformation and loss from thawing permafrost peatlands (Final Report)

The IsoGenie3 Project delivered new systems-level insights into carbon cycling in thawing permafrost landscapes, with an emphasis on methane and carbon dioxide emissions. From >200 samples from the site collected over a decade, co-analyzed for geochemistry and microbiology, the team recovered ~1,500 assembled microbial genomes and ~1,900 viral population genomes, revealing appreciable genetic novelty - from a new highly abundant bacterial phylum, to novel methane consumers and their activities, to rampant viral novelty. IsoGenie3 linked these organisms to carbon compound transformations (which define the cycling of organic matter in soils, and the loss of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane), and saw that the microbes at each stage of permafrost thaw had different genetic potential to degrade categories of compounds, expressed that genetic potential differently, and actually transformed carbon compounds into greenhouse gases in different ways. IsoGenie 3 identified that some of the thaw-stage differences were due to plant-microbiome relationships; the plant species across the thaw gradient contributed different carbon compounds into the soil, and hosted distinct microbiota (differing among parts of plants as well as species). Lastly, microbes in the saturated post-thaw conditions appeared likely to contribute to the mobilization and toxification of mercury released during thaw. In parallel with ongoing field sampling and analysis, hypotheses arising from field observations were tested via lab incubation experiments. When communities are taken out of their native habitats, they behave differently, and the team first rigorously quantified the magnitude of this effect on microbiome composition and functional capacity, organic matter composition, and gas production; overall the main system processes were maintained in the lab incubations under the conditions tested. Further, the microbial data could inform geochemical reaction network models of those processes. Then, the team ran experiments with additions of compounds, varying temperature, and “live” vs. “dead” peat (the latter having been gamma irradiated, with a few additional variants to control for methodological artifacts). From these, we (a) determined the importance of plant-derived soluble phenolic compounds in bogs’ extraordinary recalcitrance of organic matter, and carbon gas emissions skewed to carbon dioxide; (b) proposed an abiotic ‘tanning’ mechanism, which could contribute to Sphagnum’s inhibitory effect on anaerobic decomposition through alteration of N availability. IsoGenie3 illuminated longer-term and landscape-scale interactions of permafrost thaw and carbon cycling, advancing knowledge of the drivers of methane dynamics not only across in the permafrost-associated peatland (where hydrology and plant communities dictate microbiomes) but also their interconnected lakes (where sediment carbon quality and resident microbiota are determined by position within lake, and lake features). By leveraging observations of site methane dynamics extending well before this project, the team was able to construct a 44-year portrait of the interplay of permafrost thaw, hydrology, vegetation dynamics, and carbon gas emissions, and the doubling of the fully-thawed fens over this time. From the detailed study of this focal site, IsoGenie3 also aimed to improve model representation of these kinds of sites and processes. To improve predictions of methane transformations, we incorporated acetate and isotope dynamics into the ‘DNDC’ biogeochemistry model. In addition, recovered genomes were grouped into ‘functional groups’, i.e. the genomes that perform a specific function of interest, then used to parameterize maximum growth rate and optimum growth temperature (via signatures in their sequence composition) for the BioCrunch model. The BioCrunch model was then in turn used to test the impact of increasing functional resolution of the microbes, on the carbon gas emissions. Lastly for modeling, the ecosys model was parameterized from the microbial and other data, and used to evaluate drivers of e.g. change in methane emissions. Finally, this project also led to the development of a range of new methods and tools, a new metric of organic matter decomposability, as well as a graph-database solution to multidisciplinary data storage and querying. This project’s ongoing analyses at our focal site also contributed to broader advancements in understanding elements of genetic plasticity and methane metabolism, climate change microbiology and community assembly, global peatland geochemistry and Arctic lakes’ roles in climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗