Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “wind speed estimates”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Assessment of Tidal Energy Extraction in the Western Passage

Numerical models have been widely used for the resource characterization and assessment of tidal instream energy. The accurate assessment of tidal stream energy resources at a feasibility or project-design scale requires detailed hydrodynamic model simulations or high-quality field measurements. This study applied a three-dimensional finite-volume community ocean model (FVCOM) to simulate the tidal hydrodynamics in the Passamaquoddy–Cobscook Bay archipelago, with a focus on the Western Passage, to assist tidal energy resource assessment. IEC Technical specifications were considered in the model configurations and simulations. The model was calibrated and validated with field measurements. Energy fluxes and power densities along selected cross sections were calculated to evaluate the feasibility of the tidal energy development at several hotspots that feature strong currents. When taking both the high current speed and water depth into account, the model results showed that the Western Passage has great potential for the deployment of tidal energy farms. The maximum extractable power in the Western Passage was estimated using the Garrett and Cummins method. Different criteria and methods recommended by the IEC for resource characterization were evaluated and discussed using a sensitivity analysis of energy extraction for a hypothetical tidal turbine farm in the Western Passage.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

An extension of Thwaites’ method for turbulent boundary layers

Thwaites developed an approximate method for determining the evolution of laminar boundary layers. The approximation follows from an assumption that the growth of a laminar boundary layer in the presence of pressure gradients could be parameterized solely as a function of the Holstein–Bohlen flow parameter, thus reducing the von Kármán momentum integral to a first-order ordinary differential equation. This method is useful for the analysis of laminar flows, and in computational potential flow solvers to account for the viscous effects. In this work, an approximate method for determining the momentum thickness of a two-dimensional, turbulent boundary layer is proposed following Thwaites’ work. It is shown that the method provides good estimates of the momentum thickness for multiple boundary layers, including both favourable and adverse pressure gradient effects, up to the point of separation. In the limit of high Reynolds numbers, it is possible to derive a criterion for the onset of separation from the proposed model, which is shown to be in agreement with prior empirical observations. The sensitivity of the separation location with respect to upstream perturbations is also analysed through this model for the NASA/Boeing speed bump and the transonic Bachalo–Johnson bump.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of spatial and seasonal trends in the atmosphere and construction of statistical models for infrasonic propagation

SUMMARY Infrasonic waves are influenced by variations in the density, pressure and temperature as well as the ambient winds. Modelling infrasonic propagation can be challenging due to the dynamic nature of the atmosphere as well as the sparseness of measurements which result in variability and notable uncertainty. A framework is presented to quantify spatial and seasonal trends in atmospheric structure via analysis of the effective sound speed profile and identification of temporal trends in the middle atmospheric waveguide produced by the circumpolar vortex winds. Seasonal definitions identifying typical atmospheric structures during the summer, winter and spring/fall transition periods are identified using atmospheric data from 2010 through 2020. Seasonal trend analysis is conducted for a number of locations across the contiguous United States to quantify spatial variations in atmospheric structure that impact infrasonic propagation. For each season and location, empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reduce the historical archive of atmospheric data into a smaller representative set that can be analysed using numerical tools more efficiently. Infrasonic ray tracing and finite-frequency modal propagation analyses are applied to construct propagation path geometry and transmission loss statistics which are useful in localization and yield estimation for infrasonic sources, respectively. An example application is detailed in which transmission loss statistics are combined with an explosive source model and noise statistics to quantify the capability of a network to detect nearby sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decoding Golden Eagle Movement Behavior from High-Resolution, Variable-Rate Telemetry Data Through Bayesian Filtering

The recent advances in animal tracking technology have enabled the collection of a vast amount of in situ data regarding the movement of wildlife at high spatiotemporal resolution. These data are usually available at variable time resolutions and contains noise (error) originating from GPS fixes. Decoding movement characteristics, particularly of flying animals, from telemetry data while handling these factors is a challenging yet important task for conservation purposes. Typically, this task is broken into two subtasks: resampling, and model calibration. The resampling subtask converts the variable rate positional data into a constant time interval data, while the model calibration subtask uses the resampled data to tune time-invariant parameters of the proposed models. For telemetry data at high temporal resolutions (order of 1 second), it is very challenging to decouple noise from actual movements using interpolation-based resampling techniques. Any errors introduced during resampling can significantly alter the the calibration and prediction attributes of the movement model. We address this problem through a unified Bayesian state-space framework that can handle both the resampling and calibration tasks in a single step. In addition, we use the speed and heading of the bird from telemetry data to regularize the position information of the bird. We use a Kalman filtering approach to include these nonlinearly related motion parameters within the state space framework. We cross-validated to quantify how this inclusion affects the model performance in estimating true bird movements. The relationship between the true state of the bird and environmental and topographical covariates is then represented parametrically. These parameters are then tuned using stochastic sampling strategies like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We use the telemetry data collected from golden eagles in the western USA to demonstrate the applicability of this approach to build a predictive, probabilistic movement model. Our preliminary results show that this approach provides improved predictive performance in terms of capturing higher-order motion parameters such as angular and horizontal accelerations, which may have simpler and more direct relationships with environmental covariates than corresponding speeds. In this talk, we will demonstrate how this state-space approach benefits the prediction capabilities of a movement model in simulating golden eagle paths through a wind power plant in Wyoming given certain atmospheric conditions. The model outcomes are aimed at informing mitigation strategies that can minimize the potential for collisions of golden eagles with wind turbines.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2023

The electric fields and “lightning jets” of the Sun and solar wind

A model of electric energization of the solar wind and corona is developed, including electro-magnetic particle effects precluded by traditional magneto-hydro (MHD) assumptions. Using standard 1D radial solar models for particle density and temperature, the core gravito-electric field is calculated; and the range of possible photospheric photo-electric fields is estimated. The extant DC field apparently arises from about 460 C of charge displacement, mainly caused by the immense solar energy flux pushing electrons outward. Energetically, this electric field can accelerate surface protons out of the 2 keV gravity well and up to the 4 keV energies observed in the fast solar wind. The electrical energy is released in pervasive, persistent “proton lightning jets,” which are proton beams, charge-neutralized by co-propagating electrons. The jets are formed by pinched “avalanche breakdown” of the weakly ionized photosphere, probably initiated on the down-welling edges of solar surface granulations. These energetic jets will glow as discrete filamentary surface spicules and will be observed in reflected solar light as the diffuse K-corona. Significantly, the total charge displacement and observed fast wind speed are quantitatively predicted by a novel “virial limit”: the (positive) electrical potential energy at r = 0 is limited in magnitude to the 10 keV gravitational well at r = 0.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Empirical Validation of Multi-Zone HVAC System Model: Evaluation of Existing Infiltration Models used in Building Energy Simulation

Infiltration can have a significant impact on building loads. Studies have shown that infiltration can account for 15-40% of annual space conditioning needs in commercial buildings (Emmerich et al. 2019; Younes et al. 2012). The driving force of infiltration is the pressure difference across the building envelope caused by wind, the stack effect (known as buoyancy effect), and the operation of ventilation equipment. Wind pressure is governed by wind direction, speed, building shape, and other structures around the building. The stack effect is a function of the building height and air density differences of ambient air (Han, 2015). The effect of wind is dominant in low-rise residential buildings, and the stack effect is dominant in highrise buildings (ASHRAE 2017). In building energy simulation programs (e.g., EnergyPlus), various empirical infiltration models (e.g., the effective leakage area model, the flow coefficient model) are available to simulate infiltration rates. To help users in selecting a proper infiltration model for modeling of the two-story Flexible Research Platform (FRP), the team evaluates the existing infiltration models in EnergyPlus based on field measurements from the FRP. The blower door and tracer gas decay tests were performed in the FRP. The blower door test result was used to estimate input parameters required in the infiltration models. The actual infiltration rates were estimated with the tracer gas decay test results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring the Impact of Near-Term Innovations on the Technical Potential of Land-Based Wind Energy

Land based wind may play a critical role in reaching emissions reductions goals and high renewable contribution scenarios with capacity expansion modeling results estimating over 1 terawatt of land-based wind by 2035 to reach 100% clean electricity. Deployment of land-based wind at this magnitude may require significant investments in transmission infrastructure and will require significant land area for new wind and transmission. Cost reductions via technological advancements in wind turbine design, construction, and maintenance will have a major role in enabling the scale of deployment required. Since 1998, the levelized cost of wind energy has fallen by over 60% due to improvements in capacity factors, advancements in turbine controls, and cost reductions in installation, operation, and maintenance. These cost reduction pathways, generally referred to as wind technology "innovations", have enabled significant increases in the capacity and electric generation share of wind power in the United States. Nevertheless, achievements of past wind innovations have not led to widespread wind deployment outside of high wind speed geographies. This study evaluates the potential of near-term innovations to expand the geographic range of economically viable land-based wind power production in the United States. Many challenges to future deployment of wind power can be associated with increasing concentration in high-wind areas. As more wind power is deployed in these same areas, it is likely that residential and regulatory resistance to further deployment will increase, access to transmission will diminish, and options for distant companies and governments with renewable energy goals will remain limited. Therefore, this analysis aims to emphasize the potential for innovations to enable land-based wind in regions with limited wind deployment and with lower wind resource and better access to transmission.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Effectiveness of an Ultrasonic Acoustic Deterrent in Reducing Bat Fatalities at Wind Energy Facilities

This project was designed to use thermal video cameras and fatality monitoring to evaluate the effectiveness of an ultrasonic acoustic deterrent (UAD) on bat activity and mortality, respectively. Our goals were to redesign the UAD device and installation infrastructure, determine the placement on wind turbines to optimize safety, compatibility and functionality, and to compare the mortality among the following conditions: Control (deterrents off and turbines feathered up to the manufacturer’s cut-in speed of 3.5 m/s), Deterrent (deterrents on and turbines feathered up to the manufacturer’s cut-in speed of 3.5 m/s), Curtailment (deterrents off and turbines feathered up to 5/ m/s), and combination (deterrents on and turbines feathered up to 5 m/s). The project was divided into a Feasibility Study and Comparative Study. The objectives for the Feasibility Study were to develop an installation strategy, redesign a previous iteration of a UAD to improve performance and weatherization, and test the effectiveness of the deterrents on bat activity. The Feasibility Study was intended to work out potential issues using a relatively small number of devices prior to manufacturing and installing numerous devices for a larger-scale comparative study. The division of the project into these separate studies was based on previous experience and the challenges of assessing the capabilities of an untested UAD. During the initial development and manufacturing of the UAD, NRG Systems decided to use a piezoelectric transducer rather than an electrostatic transducer, which was used by a previous device (i.e. Deaton UAD). NRG Systems conducted lab testing (i.e., IP67 or Ingress Protection) to ensure no water or dust ingress. In addition, shock/drop trials and variations in temperature exposure were conducted as part of the reliability testing. NRG Systems also developed a communications system to allow for continuous performance monitoring of the UADs. For the Feasibility Study, we installed 6 UADs on each of 2 Gamesa G90 2-MW wind turbines (Turbine 14 and 8) at the South Chestnut Wind Energy Facility, Pennsylvania and monitored activity under control and treatment (i.e. Deterrent) conditions using thermal video monitoring. There are two major sources of variation in bat activity (beyond the anticipated treatment effect): 1) environment around the turbines might inherently favor more activity at one than the other; 2) weather conditions on any given night or within season difference (e.g., migration later during the study period) might favor more activity on some nights than on other nights. Because we could only monitor two turbines on any night, we sought to control the potential influences of these two sources by alternating the turbine on which deterrents were activated each night. If there were no loss of data due to technical failures, this design would result in an equal number of deterrent and control nights at each turbine through the monitoring period, balancing the effects of both sources of variation. We compared the time bats spent and the number of events that occurred in overlapping cameras FOV as an indicator of risk, since 80% of the overlapping FOV of the cameras was in the RSA. Equipment failures, majority due to lightning, resulted in only 17 nights with useable data, with unbalanced treatment assignment within turbines and uneven distribution of treatment assignment throughout the observational period. This resulted in a confounding of treatment assignment and seasonal change. Deterrent treatment was measured at Turbine 14 on only 2 of the first 8 usable nights (spanning the period from 8/18-9/17), whereas 6 times on Turbine 8. From 9/18-927, deterrent was on at Turbine 14 on 6 of the remaining 10 nights, and 4 on Turbine 8. We recorded a total of 1,057 bats and observed a reduction in number of events and duration of events at the UAD-activated turbine when it was Turbine 14. When Turbine 8 had the UAD activated, we observed no difference in number or duration of events. Variation between turbines is not unusual and can cause issues when study designs have no true replication, i.e., multiple turbines per treatment. Within-turbine differences suggested a trend for reduced activity when UADs were activated, particularly for Turbine 14. These results may be caused by the overall higher bat activity at Turbine 8 and confounding of treatment assignment and seasonal trends. We mapped 58 bat events in 3-dimensional space (3D), 30 and 28 events during control and treatment conditions, respectively. We observed bats crossing the rotor plane under both control and treatment conditions and observed a total of 40 confirmed or near-collisions (i.e., target close to blade but no visual confirmation of a strike) out of a total of 1,491 medium and high confidence bat observations (880 control, 611 at treatment). Twice as many collisions/possible collisions were observed during control conditions. Given the challenges with the equipment and potential confounding of the data (i.e., different activity levels at the two wind turbines), we were unable to determine whether this initial turbine placement and orientation was optimal. Given no new information on how best to install the devices, we elected to use the same placement and orientation for the comparative study. For the Comparative Study, the objectives were to investigate the relative mortality rates among 4 treatments. We searched the area within 90 m of each turbine daily to recover the highest number of fresh fatalities possible. We were unable to detect a clear reduction in mortality from deterrents alone for any individual species. Surprisingly, mortality rate of the eastern red bat (Lasiurus borealis) was estimated to be 1.3–4.2 times as much when turbines were operating normally and UADs were on than when UADs were off. Reduction in mortality of all bat species combined due to curtailment of turbines was estimated to be between 0%–38%. This effect was nullified when, in addition to curtailment, UADs were on, with 95% confidence interval ranging from a 45% reduction to a 36% increase in mortality. This was likely due to the large proportion of eastern red bats in the total carcass population. Mortality of all low-frequency echolocating bats combined (i.e. hoary bat [L. cinereus], big brown bat [Eptesicus fuscus], silver-haired bat [Lasionycteris noctivagans]) relative to control was lower when curtailed (95% CI: 0%–74%), but the addition of UADs had no detectable effect (95%CI: 13%–79%). The combined treatment reduced mortality in silver-haired bats relative to control by 11%–99%, compared to curtailment (81% reduction–67% increase) or deterrent (82% reduction–67% increase) alone. Because silver-haired bats comprised a large proportion of low-frequency calling bats found during this study, a similar effect was seen for that group. The higher mortality observed for eastern red bats at UAD compared to control could have been caused by several factors, such as the effective range of the UAD, particularly at higher frequencies, behavior, positioning of the devices on the nacelle, or a combination of these. We used 3D thermal videography to compare control and UAD bat behavior from two turbines using a total of 203 3D bat-tracks across 34 nights. We recorded a similar number of bat-tracks between treatment groups, with 51% and 49% for control and UAD, respectively. Due to potential differences in bat behavior around spinning vs stationary turbine blades, we examined UAD effectiveness separately for non-operating turbines (feathered below cut-in speed of 3.5 m/s) and operating (normal operation above wind speed of 3.5 m/s). We found a higher proportion of bat-tracks at operating turbines (82%) compared to non-operating turbines (18%), although this does not account for overall time turbines were operating versus not. At non-operating turbines the UAD appears to be effective at reducing the amount of time, flight length, and number of passes through the rotor plane, compared to control. In addition, we found bats approached turbines similarly between control and treatment turbines, with 61% of control and 63% of UAD bat-tracks originating leeward of the hub. In contrast, at operating turbines, we saw little change in bat behavior in response to UADs. For example, we found an increase in the average duration of bat-tracks between non-operating and operating turbines for UAD but at control turbines we found average duration decreased once turbines became operational. Both control and UAD had a high proportion of bat-tracks that crossed the rotor plane (i.e., collision risk) originate from the windward side when turbines were operational 65% to 92%, respectively. Given that the UAD devices closest to the blades were orientated parallel to the blades, its possible bats were not exposed to the signal until they were close to the turbine blades, as suggested by the slightly higher mean duration within 5 meters of the blades for UAD turbines. Future research should consider concentrating UAD intensity on the areas of risk (i.e. blades) with enough buffer to allow bats to react to the sound before entering the rotor-swept area (RSA). In addition, investigating the potential of installing UAD units windward of the turbine blades (e.g. a hub-mounted UAD), particularly since even under control conditions, a relatively high proportion (65%) of crosses through the blade plane originated windward. 3D thermal videography provided valuable information on future testing strategies (e.g. device placement, UAD orientation) to improve UAD effectiveness when bats are at risk (i.e., operating wind turbines). Across the entire project we experienced issues with the operation and communication with the UADs. Most of the issues occurred during the Feasibility Study and were resolved prior to the Comparability Study. Additional challenges surfaced during the Comparability Study but were remedied immediately and are thought to have little impact on the results. We had logistical constraints at the project that limited our ability use traditional methods in our camera calibration. Several calibrations showed inaccurate scales, which may have been related to inadequate spatial coverage of “points” in the camera calibration volume. Because we were using actual video recordings of bats at a wind turbine, the behavior of bats could have concentrated “points” in specific areas of the turbine (i.e. leeward of nacelle), and limited “points” in other areas, resulting in camera calibration issues. We have plans to address these inconsistencies and improving the software and related methodologies by early 2020.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal Variability in Wind Turbine Blade Leading Edge Erosion

Wind turbine blade leading edge erosion (LEE) reduces energy production and increases wind energy operation and maintenance costs. Degradation of the blade coating and ultimately damage to the underlying blade structure are caused by collisions of falling hydrometeors with rotating blades. The selection of optimal methods to mitigate/reduce LEE are critically dependent on the rates of coating fatigue accumulation at a given location and the time variance in the accumulation of material stresses. However, no such assessment currently exists for the United States of America (USA). To address this research gap, blade coating lifetimes at 883 sites across the USA are generated based on high-frequency (5-min) estimates of material fatigue derived using a mechanistic model and robust meteorological measurements. Results indicate blade coating failure at some sites in as few as 4 years, and that the frequency and intensity of material stresses are both highly episodic and spatially varying. Time series analyses indicate that up to one-third of blade coating lifetime is exhausted in just 360 5-min periods in the Southern Great Plains (SGP). Conversely, sites in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) exhibit the same level of coating lifetime depletion in over three times as many time periods. Thus, it may be more cost-effective to use wind turbine deregulation (erosion-safe mode) for damage reduction and blade lifetime extension in the SGP, while the application of blade leading edge protective measures may be more appropriate in the PNW. Annual total precipitation and mean wind speed are shown to be poor predictors of blade coating lifetime, re-emphasizing the need for detailed modeling studies such as that presented herein.

Pryor, Sara C. (ORCID:0000000348473440)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Distribution System Resilience From Utility Data: Large Event Risk and Benefits of Investments

We focus on blackouts in electric distribution systems that have a large cost to customers. To quantify resilience to these events, we show how to calculate risk metrics from the historical outage data routinely collected by utilities' outage management systems. Risk is defined using a customer cost exceedance curve. The exceedance curve has a heavy tail that implies large fluctuations in large blackout costs, and this makes estimating the mean large cost in the usual way impractical. To avoid this problem, we use new resilience metrics describing the large event risk; these metrics are the probability of a large cost event, the annual log cost resilience index, and the average of the logarithm of the cost of large-cost events or the slope magnitude of the tail on a log–log exceedance curve. Resilience can be improved by planned investments to upgrade system components or speed up restoration. The benefits that these investments would have had if they had been made in the past can be quantified by “rerunning history” with the effects of the investment included, and then recalculating the large event risk to find the improvement in resilience. An example using utility data shows a 2% reduction in the probability of a large cost event due to 10% wind hardening and 6%–7% reduction due to 10% faster restoration in two different areas of a distribution utility. This new data-driven approach to quantify resilience and resilience investments is realistic and much easier to apply than complicated approaches based on modeling all the phases of resilience. Moreover, an appeal to improvements to past lived experience may well be persuasive to customers and regulators in making the case for resilience investments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution South American Wind Resource Data Downscaled with Generative Machine Learning Conditioned on Near-Surface Observations

High-resolution historical wind data was developed for the entirety of South America using the innovative Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r) machine learning framework. The publicly available Sup3rWind South America dataset represents a significant advancement in wind resource data generation, leveraging generative machine learning conditioned on near-surface observations from the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) to efficiently and accurately downscale coarse reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). This approach produces fine-scale, spatially and temporally coherent wind and meteorological fields hundreds of times more computationally efficient than traditional numerical weather modeling methods, enabling access to high-fidelity wind information across both continental and offshore regions. Sup3rWind South America builds on the earlier Sup3rWind Ukraine dataset through improvements in model architecture and outputs conditioned on near-surface observation inputs. As with the Ukraine data release, this dataset includes wind speed, wind direction, temperature, relative humidity, and pressure at a horizontal resolution of ~2 km, representing a 15x spatial enhancement relative to the 31 km ERA5 grid. Wind speed and direction are provided at 5-minute resolution, a 12x temporal refinement compared to the hourly ERA5 data, while temperature, relative humidity, and pressure remain at hourly resolution. The data covers all years from 2005 to 2024. Before downscaling, ERA5 inputs were bias-corrected using long-term monthly means and a limited number of quality-controlled observations to align large-scale statistics with regional conditions. The resulting dataset is the first publicly available high-resolution timeseries wind record that provides full spatial coverage of South America. Model validation demonstrates strong agreement with observations across several statistical metrics, consistent with other state-of-the-art high-resolution wind resource datasets. The potential applications of Sup3rWind South America span renewable energy resource assessment, energy system modeling, and grid resilience analysis. The 20-year record and high spatial and temporal resolution support accurate estimation of long-term energy yield and the economic feasibility of potential wind development sites. Continuous coverage across both continental and offshore regions enables comprehensive site prospecting within exclusive economic zones. The 2 km, 5-minute resolution data provide the spatial and temporal variability required for power system simulation, operational planning, and regional risk assessments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Efficient Probabilistic Visualization of Local Divergence of 2D Vector Fields with Independent Gaussian Uncertainty

This work focuses on visualizing uncertainty of local divergence of two-dimensional vector fields. Divergence is one of the fundamental attributes of fluid flows, as it can help domain scientists analyze potential positions of sources (positive divergence) and sinks (negative divergence) in the flow. However, uncertainty inherent in vector field data can lead to erroneous divergence computations, adversely impacting downstream analysis. While Monte Carlo (MC) sampling is a classical approach for estimating divergence uncertainty, it suffers from slow convergence and poor scalability with increasing data size and sample counts. Thus, we present a two-fold contribution that tackles the challenges of slow convergence and limited scalability of the MC approach. (1) We derive a closed-form approach for highly efficient and accurate uncertainty visualization of local divergence, assuming independently Gaussian-distributed vector uncertainties. (2) We further integrate our approach into Viskores, a platform-portable parallel library, to accelerate uncertainty visualization. In our results, we demonstrate significantly enhanced efficiency and accuracy of our serial analytical (speed-up up to 1946×) and parallel Viskores (speed-up up to 19698×) algorithms over the classical serial MC approach. We also demonstrate qualitative improvements of our probabilistic divergence visualizations over traditional mean-field visualization, which disregards uncertainty. We validate the accuracy and efficiency of our methods on wind forecast and ocean simulation datasets.

Ouermi, Timbwaoga [University of Utah]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Jets from main sequence and white dwarf companions during common envelope evolution

ABSTRACT It has long been speculated that jet feedback from accretion on to the companion during a common envelope (CE) event could affect the orbital evolution and envelope unbinding process. We present global 3D hydrodynamical simulations of CE evolution (CEE) that include a jet subgrid model and compare them with an otherwise identical model without a jet. Our binary consists of a 2-M⊙ red giant branch primary and a 1- or 0.5-M⊙ main sequence (MS) or white dwarf (WD) secondary companion modelled as a point particle. We run the simulations for 10 orbits (40 d). Our jet model adds mass at a constant rate $\dot{M}_\mathrm{j}$ of the order of the Eddington rate, with maximum velocity vj of the order of the escape speed, to two spherical sectors with the jet axis perpendicular to the orbital plane. We explore the influence of the jet on orbital evolution, envelope morphology and envelope unbinding, and assess the dependence of the results on the jet mass-loss rate, launch speed, companion mass, opening angle, and accretion rate. In line with our theoretical estimates, jets are choked around the time of first periastron passage and remain choked thereafter. Subsequent to choking, but not before, jets efficiently transfer energy to bound envelope material. This leads to increases in unbound mass of up to $\sim 10{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, as compared to the simulations without jets. We also estimate the cumulative effects of jets over a full CE phase, finding that jets launched by MS and WD companions are unlikely to dominate envelope unbinding.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeled estimates of permafrost hydrology and related fields for pan-Arctic region over the period 1980-2100

This dataset contains gridded estimates of total runoff (mm/day); subsurface runoff (mm/day); snow water equivalent (SWE, mm/day); vertical upward water flux of combined surface evaporation, evapotranspiration, and snow sublimation (mm/day); and soil temperature (C) across the pan-Arctic basin from simulations of the Permafrost Water Balance Model (PWBM v4). These data were generated to allow researchers to advance understanding of the changes unfolding in the Arctic's terrestrial water cycle under the influences of climate warming, hydrological cycle intensification, and permafrost thaw. The dataset will enable researchers to address important questions spanning multiple disciplines. For example, how will rising river flows exported to the coast impact critical zone ecosystems, near-shore ice dynamics, and ocean biogeochemical processes. Spatial resolution is 25x25 km with N=39926 grid cells spanning the domain. Three forcing datasets were used to drive simulations at an implicit daily time step over the period 1980-2100. Daily air temperature, precipitation, and wind speed data from the WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA5 reanalysis (W5E5) were used for meteorological forcings over the period 1980-2019. Simulations for the period 1980-2100 used meteorological data from two global climate models; IPSL-CM6A-LR and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. The PWBM hydrological outputs are organized by grid and month in gzipped ASCII text files within each archived tar file. Soil temperature is organized by grid cell and day of year from DOY 205 to DOY 260. No special software is required to work with these data. The package contains spatial domain and river basin information files. These data are most useful for analyses of the spatial and temporal variations in terrestrial hydrology and soil thermal dynamics. A manuscript describing the model simulations and associated analysis has been accepted for publication in The Cryosphere (Rawlins and Karmalkar, 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

FEED Study of Carbon Capture Inc. DAC and CarbonCure Utilization Using United States Steel's Gary Works Waste Plant

Direct Air Capture (DAC) has been proposed as a means of reducing atmospheric concentrations of CO2. While DAC has been evaluated through lab-scale, bench-scale, and small-scale pilot units, large-scale deployment has not been achieved. Feasibility studies are one tool to understand the potential design, operation, performance, and impact of commercial-scale DAC. This paper presents the results of a feasibility study for a passive DAC system deployed at >100,000 tpy scale in three different regions across the U.S. and awarded to Carbon Collect by the U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE NETL). The MechanicalTree™technology has been designed and engineered by Carbon Collect based on the concept initially developed at Arizona State University Center for Negative Carbon Emissions. It uses a tower of stacked, sorbentcontaining disks supported by a lifting mechanism, exposed to the air to capture CO2 during the adsorption phase. The disks are then lowered into a regeneration chamber for vacuum and steam regeneration to produce CO2 product during the desorption step. The modular tree design allows large installations with repeatable, mass-manufactured units connected to common utilities such as steam supply, vacuum, and CO2 processing for compression and geologic storage. The passive DAC system eliminates the equipment and energy of forced air fans by using natural air circulation to contact the sorbent with the CO2 in the air. Because of this, the performance is dependent on the wind speed in addition to the temperature and relative humidity. Performance and flow rate fluctuations were incorporated into equipment and facility design with considerations for turndown to 10% of maximum rated flow to allow operation in all seasons. The feasibility study was undertaken to evaluate the technology in different regions and climates. Three locations were selected for this study representing different climates: Alabama (hot and humid), California (hot and arid), and Wyoming (continental). For each region, the adsorption/desorption cycle was optimized including tuning the heat integration and cycle timings. The performance of individual trees was then scaled to the full facility with the same design of more than 20,000 trees common between all regions. The installations had expected average CO2 capture rates of between 330,000 and 485,000 tonnes of CO2 per year depending on the climate. The initial engineering design for the facility at each location was performed with cost and performance estimates for the trees, carbon purification and compression, and the balance of plant. To supply thermal and electrical energy for the facility, carbon-free or low-carbon power must be considered. Options for low-carbon, continuous thermal and electrical energy were considered. The best-performing option from those considered was identified to be an electrically-heated molten salt energy storage system, powered by an on-site photovoltaic field. During molten salt thermal discharge, steam is produced from heat exchange with the molten salt and used to generate power in a steam turbine as well as steam for regenerating the DAC carbon trees. The thermal and electrical supply and analysis is presented in the context of low-carbon power for carbon removal. Modelling and economics of transportation and geologic storage of the CO2 is considered and presented for each location. The results of the feasibility study are incorporated into the presented techno-economic and life-cycle assessments. This work is intended to provide an understanding of the performance, cost, and impact of capturing CO2 at the commercial scale and the impact of climate and regional siting on the considered passive DAC system.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using optimal estimation to retrieve winds from velocity-azimuth display (VAD) scans by a Doppler lidar

Abstract. Low-powered commercially available coherent Doppler lidar (CDL) wind profilers provide continuous measurement of vertical profiles of wind in the lower troposphere, usually close to or up to the top of the planetary boundary layer. The vertical extent of these wind profiles is limited by the availability of scatterers and thus varies substantially throughout the day and from one day to the next. This makes it challenging to develop continuous products that rely on CDL-observed wind profiles. In order to overcome this problem, we have developed a new method for wind profile retrievals from CDL that combines the traditional velocity-azimuth display (VAD) technique with optimal estimation (OE) to provide continuous wind profiles up to 3 km. The new method exploits the level-to-level covariance present in the wind profile to fill in the gaps where the signal-to-noise ratio of the CDL return is too low to provide reliable results using the traditional VAD method. Another advantage of the new method is that it provides the full error covariance matrix of the solution and profiles of information content, which more easily facilitates the assimilation of the observed wind profiles into numerical weather prediction models. This method was tested using yearlong CDL measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility in 2019. Comparison with the ARM operational CDL wind profile product and collocated radiosonde wind measurements shows excellent agreement (R2>0.99) with no degradation in results where the traditional VAD provided a valid solution. In the region where traditional VAD does not provide results, the OE wind speed and wind vector have uncertainties of 3.44 and 4.33 m s−1, respectively. As a result, the new method provides additional information over the standard technique and increases the effective range of existing CDL systems without the need for additional hardware.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Lifecycle of updrafts and mass flux in isolated deep convection over the Amazon rainforest: insights from cell tracking

Long-term observations of deep convective cloud (DCC) vertical velocity and mass flux were collected during the Observations and Modelling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) experiment. Precipitation echoes from a surveillance weather radar near Manaus, Brazil, are tracked to identify and evaluate the isolated DCC lifecycle evolution during the dry and wet seasons. A radar wind profiler (RWP) provides precipitation and air motion profiles to estimate the vertical velocity, mass flux, and mass transport rates within overpassing DCC cores as a function of the tracked cell lifecycle stage. The average radar reflectivity factor (Z), DCC area (A), and surface rainfall rate (R) increased with DCC lifetime as convective cells were developing, reached a peak as the cells matured, and decreased thereafter as cells dissipated. As the convective cells mature, cumulative DCC properties exhibit stronger updraft behaviors with higher upward mass flux and transport rates above the melting layer (compared with initial and later lifecycle stages). In comparison, developing DCCs have the lowest Z associated with weak updrafts, as well as negative mass flux and transport rates above the melting layer. Over the DCC lifetime, the height of the maximum downward mass flux decreased, whereas the height of the maximum net mass flux increased. During the dry season, the tracked DCCs had higher Z, propagation speed, and DCC area, and were more isolated spatially compared with the wet season. Dry season DCCs exhibit higher Z, mass flux, and mass transport rate while developing, whereas wet season DCCs exhibit higher Z, mass flux, and mass transport rates at later stages.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Controlling Variables for Mercury Vapors in Alpha-4 at Y-12: Two Year Data Collection Update

Multiple sensor packages were deployed at Alpha-4 by SRNL, in collaboration with United Cleanup Oak Ridge LLC (UCOR), to monitor mercury vapor concentrations and meteorological parameters. These sensors collected data, inside and outside of the legacy-use facility, for approximately two years. Though data gaps still exist, particularly in colder months, several controlling variables were identified that govern mercury vapor concentrations within Alpha-4. Temperature, barometric pressure gradients, humidity, and wind speed have been identified as controlling variables. A strong positive correlation was seen between mercury vapor concentrations and temperature which generally followed diurnal fluctuations. Temperatures below approximately 10 degrees Celsius did not show any spikes above the PEL, indicating more work can be performed at any time during the winter months – more data should be collected to confirm consistency in this finding. Additionally, spikes in mercury vapor concentrations above that of the permissible exposure limit (PEL; 100 µg/m 3 ) occurred primarily in late afternoon or evening/overnight hours (between 3 PM and 6 AM), which suggests D&D operations might be best scheduled during morning or daytime hours prior to the late afternoon. However, a limited number of spikes did occur outside of the identified window, although this may be attributed to disturbances in air flow and mercury vapor release from work activities performed inside of the Alpha-4 building. The analysis conducted allows for a strong predictive capability for estimating mercury vapor concentrations based upon accurate meteorological parameters. Still, additional data collection, particularly in the winter months, could help to strengthen the predictive power and validate the identified data trends. Further, increased temporal resolution could also help to better characterize the incipient stages of the increases and decreases in the mercury vapor concentration. Continued monitoring support by SRNL at Y-12 is underway at Alpha-4 to further close remaining data gaps and support deactivation and decommissioning work. Within a collaborative effort with UCOR, the SRNL team is collecting mercury vapor data to study the efficacy of a novel mercury suppressant, FerroBlack® which was recently deployed at Alpha-4. In addition, modifications to the current monitoring setup to increase measurement resolution is also being investigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗