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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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211 records · Page 12

On the Prediction of Surface Melt Over the Greenland Ice Sheet at NWP and S2S Timescales

Greenland surface melt “events” – encompassing large swaths of the ice sheet over approximately 4-10 day periods – have occurred with increasing frequency in the 21st Century. Surface processes are significant to the ice sheet’s overall contribution to sea level. In addition, the sudden onset of widespread surface melt produces hazardous conditions for researchers and for communities adjacent to the ice sheet. The mechanisms producing melt events, their associated large-scale forcing, and timescales of interest are highly variable and poorly understood. Here we examine the predictability of melt events in a numerical weather prediction system (NWP) and a subseasonal-to-seasonal system (S2S). The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office forward processing (GMAO-FP) is an NWP system that incorporates an evolving, global hybrid 4D ensemble–variational (4DEnVar) data assimilation system and a state-of-the-art model that is run twice-daily with forecasts out to five and ten days. The GMAO S2S system is a hindcast-anomaly, coupled-model prediction system initialized with an atmospheric analysis, and in situ and satellite ocean data assimilation. Both systems represent ice sheet surface hydrology and snowpack processes. We examine the performance of the systems over the period 2018-2023, a span that includes approximately nine significant events, against analyses and satellite-derived melt extent. In addition to extent, we examine related conditions and their role in the melt forecast, including the onset of both omega and Rex atmospheric blocking patterns, sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, water vapor transport, precipitation, and surface preconditioning. We further examine the tendency for false-alarm events in each system and assess reasons for the forecast performance. North Atlantic atmospheric blocking patterns leading to surface melt are well forecast by the NWP system out to around eight days, while the S2S system generally underestimates the magnitude of such events at monthly lead times. These systems suggest that while short term forecasts of ice sheet melt and melt events are relatively robust, S2S predictions of surface conditions are highly dependent on the ability of a coupled system to generate the short-term atmospheric conditions associated with surface melt events.

Richard Cullather↗

Combinatorial Auction-Based Strategic Deconfliction of Federated UTM Airspace

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have become commonly used to perform a wide range of commercial activities such as cinematography and medical supply delivery. Consequently, regulators have become interested in designing UAV Traffic Management systems (UTMs) to coordinate UAV traffic among a collection of UAV operators. One framework which has been recently proposed for a UTM system is a combinatorial auction. In this framework, airspace is modelled as a 4D grid of space-time cells. UAV operators bid on cells which collectively form paths for their UAVs. Ideally, an airspace auction should reveal information about the current price of flight paths to bidders, allowing bidders to identify and bid on a select number of paths instead of placing as many bids as possible in the hopes of stumbling on a cheap path. Revealing too much information, however, can allow bad actors to place bids which are intended not to win but to raise the price that a rival bidder must pay. We address these twin challenges with a new information revelation framework which provides bidders with wide-ranging pricing information while suppressing bad actors. We evaluate our framework on scenarios based on a Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) case study and find that it can scale to thousands of bids.

Christopher J C Leet↗

Bridging the Gap Between Finite Element Modeling and Wavefront Analysis for Streamlined Optical System Design

Traditionally, evaluating the optical performance of mirrors derived from finite element (FEA), with third-party software requires cumbersome manual effort – which impacts efficient design optimization. This paper presents a process that seamlessly integrates FEA results with wavefront analysis software, significantly simplifying performance assessment and enabling rapid design iteration. We leverage the 4D technology interferometer and "4Sight" wavefront analysis software for performance measurement and comparison with FEA predictions. Recognizing the need for efficient data exchange, we developed an application that converts FEA data into a format compatible with 4Sight. The software takes two user-defined inputs: optical surface position and deformation information, typically provided as CSV or TXT files. Within a second, it generates an output file suitable for direct import into 4Sight, enabling immediate visualization of key optical performance metrics.

Zernike Polynomial↗

The Representation of Aerosols in GMAO’s Newest Reanalyses

Over the past few years, NASA’s Global Modelling and Assimilation Office has been working on the configuration and production of three new reanalysis products, GEOS-IT, GiOcean, and MERRA-21C. GEOS-IT, or the Goddard Earth Observing System for Instrument Teams, is a 3D variational data assimilation system that runs in a near real time framework however retrospectively provides data back through 1998 to deliver a consistent view of the Earth-atmosphere system for the production of observational NASA products. Retrospective production for GEOS-IT is complete and the meteorology has since been used to produce the one way weakly coupled GiOcean reanalysis. Due to differences in the atmospheric model, particularly related to scavenging, aerosols are not identical in GEOS-IT and GiOcean. MERRA-21C, or the Modern Era Restrospective analysis for Research and Applications in the 21st century, is a hybrid 4D ensemble variational system at a finer horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees. Although different in their intended use, and therefore configuration, these systems prominently feature coupling between meteorology and aerosols. The differences and similarities in the aerosol configuration between the three systems will be discussed, covering biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions as well as observations used for the assimilation of aerosol optical depth. A large emphasis will be placed on the version of the underlying aerosol module, GOCART, which underwent a complete refactoring and the addition of radiatively active brown carbon between GEOS-IT and MERRA-21C. Independent observations will be used to evaluate the performance of aerosols in both reanalyses, focusing on aerosol optical depth, surface particulate matter, and vertical profiles of aerosol backscatter.

Allison Collow↗

Confidence-Based Buffer for Strategic Deconfliction with Probabilistic Operational Intent

This paper presents a methodology to expand the 95% confidence level of the elliptical geometry given by Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) operators planning to fly Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) to any confidence level before being fed to the strategic deconfliction (SD) module, effectively increasing the separation buffer between Operational Intents (OIs). To assess the performance of this approach, it is integrated within an adaptation of the Rolling Horizon with K-Position Search volume-based strategic deconfliction approach, previously developed at NASA Ames, preventing the 4D overlapping of OIs shaped by ellipses instead of traditional blocks. Safety and efficiency metrics are evaluated through the deconfliction of four simulated package delivery route network structures across the San Francisco Metropolitan Area with increasing numbers of crossing waypoints (network complexity). Safety assessment entails the in-house creation of a metric to quantify collision occurrences per flight hour based on the frequency at which the probabilistic operational volume segments are sampled, whereas efficiency is measured using ground delay. Results indicate that the largest buffer growth occurs when increasing the confidence level beyond 99.9% and demonstrate the negative impact of network complexity on both metrics, regardless of the OI geometry. Further, the ellipse-based SD adaptation more accurately estimates temporal separation at crossings, allowing deconflicted vehicles to be closer together. It is concluded that the proposed methodology enables the desired confidence level to serve as an effective controller of buffer size.

strategic deconfliction↗

Confidence-Based Buffer for Strategic Deconfliction with Probabilistic Operational Intent

This paper presents a methodology to expand the 95% confidence level of the elliptical geometry given by Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) operators planning to fly Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) to any confidence level before being fed to the strategic deconfliction (SD) module, effectively increasing the separation buffer between Operational Intents (OIs). To assess the performance of this approach, it is integrated within an adaptation of the Rolling Horizon with K-Position Search volume-based strategic deconfliction approach, previously developed at NASA Ames, preventing the 4D overlapping of OIs shaped by ellipses instead of traditional blocks. Safety and efficiency metrics are evaluated through the deconfliction of four simulated package delivery route network structures across the San Francisco Metropolitan Area with increasing numbers of crossing waypoints (network complexity). Safety assessment entails the in-house creation of a metric to quantify collision occurrences per flight hour based on the frequency at which the probabilistic operational volume segments are sampled, whereas efficiency is measured using ground delay. Results indicate that the largest buffer growth occurs when increasing the confidence level beyond 99.9% and demonstrate the negative impact of network complexity on both metrics, regardless of the OI geometry. Further, the ellipse-based SD adaptation more accurately estimates temporal separation at crossings, allowing deconflicted vehicles to be closer together. It is concluded that the proposed methodology enables the desired confidence level to serve as an effective controller of buffer size.

safety↗

NASA-DLR Collaboration Follow-Up: B5 - Surface Management

This presentation iintroduces a very high level overview of NASA aeronautics research and Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) under ARMD. It also provides high level overview of Airspace Technology Demonstration Project (ATD) under AOSP Program. Finally, suggestions and ideas for future collaboration with DLR on the Surface Management topic (B5) are presented for further discussion.

4D Taxi↗

Environmental Benefits Assessment of the Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests Concept

Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions has been a focus area of the scientific community for the past several years. Specifically, the aviation industry has set goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, providing a sustainable transportation mechanism with minimal impacts on the environment. This reduction must be accomplished through several means, including advanced technology, sustainable propulsion, efficient air traffic management, and improved operations. A potential solution for improving operations in an efficient air traffic management system is the Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests (TASAR) concept. The TASAR concept applies onboard automation for the purpose of advising the pilot of route modifications that would be beneficial to the flight, leading to a decrease in direct operating costs through fuel burn reduction and shorter flight times. This report discusses analyses that provide an estimate of the potential environmental benefits that result from the application of the TASAR concept. The data used for this benefits assessment was gathered during an operational evaluation on revenue flights with an airline partner between July 2018 and April 2019. The analyses in this report determined that there are impactful potential environmental benefits to be realized using the TASAR concept.

TASAR, Digital TASAR, 4D TASAR, SATM, Green Aviati↗