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DOE OSTI2024

A high internal heat flux and large core in a warm Neptune exoplanet

Interactions between exoplanetary atmospheres and internal properties have long been proposed to be drivers of the inflation mechanisms of gaseous planets and apparent atmospheric chemical disequilibrium conditions. However, transmission spectra of exoplanets have been limited in their ability to observationally confirm these theories owing to the limited wavelength coverage of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and inferences of single molecules, mostly H 2 O. Here, in this work, we present the panchromatic transmission spectrum of the approximately 750 K, low-density, Neptune-sized exoplanet WASP-107b using a combination of HST Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) and JWST Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) and Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI). From this spectrum, we detect spectroscopic features resulting from H 2 O (21σ), CH 4 (5σ), CO (7σ), CO 2 (29σ), SO 2 (9σ) and NH 3 (6σ). The presence of these molecules enables constraints on the atmospheric metal enrichment (M/H is 10–18× solar), vertical mixing strength (log 10 K zz = 8.4–9.0 cm 2 s -1 ) and internal temperature (>345 K). The high internal temperature is suggestive of tidally driven inflation4 acting on a Neptune-like internal structure, which can naturally explain the large radius and low density of the planet. These findings suggest that eccentricity-driven tidal heating is a critical process governing atmospheric chemistry and interior-structure inferences for most of the cool (<1,000 K) super-Earth-to-Saturn-mass exoplanet population.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Controlling MoO 2 and MoO 3 phases in MoO x /CNTs nanocomposites and their application to anode materials for lithium-ion batteries and capacitors

Molybdenum oxides (MoO 2 and MoO 3 ) are attractive anode materials for Li- and Na- ion batteries. Although there have been extensive studies on them individually, systematic and comparative studies are still lacking. Here, we demonstrate a facile and straightforward synthesis method to control the phase and oxidation state in the MoO x /CNTs nanocomposites via hydrothermal reaction followed by heat-treatment. By changing the gas atmosphere during the annealing process, well-dispersed MoO 2 /CNTs and MoO 3 /CNTs nanocomposites are formed without altering their overall morphology. This strategy enables us to investigate the true structure-property correlation of MoO x /CNTs nanocomposites by comparing the structure and electrochemical properties of MoO 2 /CNTs and MoO 3 /CNTs. When tested as anode materials for lithium-ion batteries, both HT-MoO 2&3 /CNTs electrodes show much-improved cycling stability and rate performance compared to the rod-shaped bulk MoO 3 electrode. In situ Mo K-edge x-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) has been further employed to compare and elucidate Li + storage mechanisms of both electrodes. When employed to the negative electrode of a high-power lithium-ion capacitor (LIC), the LIC full-cell composed of HT-MoO 3 /CNTs negative and activated carbon positive electrodes demonstrates impressive energy and power densities (~ 90 Wh kg –1 with 2000 W kg –1 ) and excellent cycling stability (96.8 % capacity retention after 300 cycles), revealing the versatility of the MoO x /CNTs electrodes in energy applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Satellite-Derived Upper-Ocean Stratification Data Set for the Tropical North Atlantic With Potential Applications for Hurricane Intensity Prediction

Upper-ocean stratification strongly impacts vertical mixing and the heat flux between the ocean and atmosphere, especially under extreme conditions of tropical cyclones (TCs). Knowledge of prestorm stratification is important for accurate TC intensity prediction. In situ observations of the tropical ocean have significantly increased in the past decade. However, they are still too sparse to resolve ocean stratification variability in near-real time and on small spatial scales. Here, in this study, based on long-term observations and an ocean reanalysis data set from 2004–2017, we investigate the possibility of retrieving upper-ocean stratification from sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), and sea surface height (SSH) using a simple regression method. It is found that more than 90% of the mean seasonal cycle and about 30% to 80% of temperature and salinity stratification anomalies can be reconstructed using surface data from either observations or an ocean reanalysis. Simple regression can be used with satellite observations to create a high-resolution, near-real-time-gridded ocean stratification data set that successfully reproduces both the large and mesoscale variability of ocean stratification. When used in a simple expression for TC-induced SST cooling, the satellite-derived stratification shows improvements over an ocean analysis in terms of variance explained of SST cooling, offering promise as a near-real-time indicator of the ocean's impact on TC intensification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the impact of peat soils and snow schemes on simulated active layer thickness at pan-Arctic permafrost sites

Abstract Permafrost stability is significantly influenced by the thermal buffering effects of snow and active-layer peat soils. In the warm season, peat soils act as a barrier to downward heat transfer mainly due to their low thermal conductivity. In the cold season, the snowpack serves as a thermal insulator, retarding the release of heat from the soil to the atmosphere. Currently, many global land models overestimate permafrost soil temperature and active layer thickness (ALT), partially due to inaccurate representations of soil organic matter (SOM) density profiles and snow thermal insulation. In this study, we evaluated the impacts of SOM and snow schemes on ALT simulations at pan-Arctic permafrost sites using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). We conducted simulations at the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) sites across the pan-Arctic domain. We improved ELM-simulated site-level ALT using a knowledge-based hierarchical optimization procedure and examined the effects of precipitation-phase partitioning methods (PPMs), snow compaction schemes, and snow thermal conductivity schemes on simulated snow depth, soil temperature, ALT, and CO 2 fluxes. Results showed that the optimized ELM significantly improved agreement with observed ALT (e.g. RMSE decreased from 0.83 m to 0.15 m). Our sensitivity analysis revealed that snow-related schemes significantly impact simulated snow thermal insulation levels, soil temperature, and ALT. For example, one of the commonly used snow thermal conductivity schemes (quadratic Sturm or SturmQua) generally produced warmer soil temperatures and larger ALT compared to the other two tested schemes. The SturmQua scheme also amplified the model’s sensitivity to PPMs and predicted deeper ALTs than the other two snow schemes under both current and future climates. The study highlights the importance of accurately representing snow-related processes and peat soils in land models to enhance permafrost dynamics simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The kagomé metals RbTi 3 Bi 5 and CsTi 3 Bi 5

Abstract The kagomé metals RbTi 3 Bi 5 and CsTi 3 Bi 5 were synthesized both as polycrystalline powders by heating the elements in an argon atmosphere and as single crystals grown using a self-flux method. The compounds crystallize in the hexagonal crystal system isotypically to KV 3 Sb 5 ( P 6/ mmm , Z = 1, CsTi 3 Bi 5 : a = 5.7873(1), c = 9.2062(1) Å; RbTi 3 Bi 5 : a = 5.773(1), c = 9.065(1) Å). The titanium atoms form a kagomé net with bismuth atoms in the hexagons as well as above and below the triangles. The alkali metal atoms are coordinated by 12 bismuth atoms and form AlB 2 -like slabs between the kagomé layers. Magnetic susceptibility measurements with CsTi 3 Bi 5 and RbTi 3 Bi 5 single crystals reveal Pauli-paramagnetism and traces of superconductivity caused by CsBi 2 /RbBi 2 impurities. Magnetotransport measurements reveal conventional Fermi liquid behavior and quantum oscillations indicative of a single dominant orbit at low temperature. DFT calculations show the characteristic metallic kagomé band structure similar to that of CsV 3 Sb 5 with reduced band filling. A symmetry analysis of the band structure does not reveal an obvious and unique signature of a nontrivial topology.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2022

Completion of initial reduced-order model for flammable refrigerant dispersal in residential spaces

Environmental regulations aimed at reducing global warming impacts of HVAC&R refrigerants have resulted in the phase-out of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in 2010 and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) by 2030 in developed countries with additional restrictions on the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) set to take effect in 2036. Many of the remaining alternative refrigerants that have lower global warming potential (GWP) and that are suitable for use in HVAC&R systems (e.g., propane, difluoromethane) are flammable to some degree. Flammable refrigerants introduce new challenges and hazards to property and personal safety related to potential deflagration during system maintenance or due to leakage of the refrigerant accumulating in the conditioned space. Standards have been developed to set maximum charge limits for flammable refrigerants in HVAC&R systems; however, existing safety standards and codes still restrict their use. The bodies that maintain and update these codes need publicly available, science-based information to enable credible guidelines for setting safe charge limits for different flammable refrigerants in different HVAC&R applications. In 2016, the Alliance for Responsible Atmospheric Policy, the Air-Conditioning Heating and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI), ASHRAE, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the State of California began efforts to develop such information. As part of this effort, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) began the current, ongoing project to examine imposed charge limits for flammable refrigerants and identify reasonable adjustments to these limits when found appropriate. Past tasks under this project have included development of experimentally vetted, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation approaches to study the results of leakage of flammable refrigerants from various HVAC&R systems into different types of commercial and residential spaces. In this report, we discuss recent efforts to develop a predictive model of the flammable volume fraction and accumulated refrigerant mass in a single-room residential space resulting from the leak of a flammable refrigerant from a small room air conditioning (RAC) unit. The eventual goal is development of a model suitable for public release which could simulate a range of scenarios. In discussions with the AHRTI Flammable Refrigerant Subcommittee (FRS) at the beginning of this effort, a total of 9 input parameters were chosen for consideration including room area, room/door opening area, ventilation fan flow rate, unit/leak height, leak area, leak rate, total refrigerant charge, refrigerant molecular weight, and state of the unit fan.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding Dynamics and Thermodynamics of ENSO and Its Complexity Simulated by E3SM and Other Climate Models

Despite the seeming success of most state-of-the-art climate models in simulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), there is strong evidence that models achieve realistic levels of ENSO activity do so often for wrong reasons. This is owing to an often occurred near cancelation of large errors in terms of contributions to ENSO growth rate from coupled dynamic and thermodynamic feedback processes. Climate models remain deficient in simulating the observed ENSO’s spatial and temporal complexity that involves interplays of coupled dynamic and thermodynamic feedbacks, interactions across multiple scales, nonlinear processes in the tropical atmosphere and ocean system, biases in mean sate and physical processes, and influences external to equatorial Pacific coupled ENSO dynamics. Our proposed research aims at advancing predictive and process-level understandings of ENSO simulated in E3SM and other climate models under current and future climate conditions with two main objectives: (i) better understanding the aforementioned broad range interactive processes and sources that control fundamental properties of ENSO in E3SM and CIMP6 outputs as well as in observational (reanalysis) data sets, using a hierarchical of coupled dynamical frameworks consisting of theoretical analysis, intermediate complexity modeling, and coupled dynamic diagnostics; (ii) to use this understanding to explore pathways towards improving E3SM’s capability of simulating ENSO and its complexity. More specifically, we will focus on four main thrusts of research: (1) ENSO’s dynamic and thermodynamic feedbacks; (2) the across-scale interactions of ENSO with annual cycle and MJO/WWB/TIW (Madden Julian Oscillation/Westerly Wind Burst/Tropical Instability Wave) activity; (3) key nonlinear processes of ENSO involving atmospheric convective thresholds, nonlinear ocean dynamic heating, and thermocline outcropping; and (4) the impacts of climate mean-state biases/changes and perturbed physical processes on simulated ENSO and its complexity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fabrication of the HFVMTF Double-Bath Cryostat

The High Field Vertical Magnet Test Facility (HFVMTF) at Fermilab is designed to test superconducting magnets up to 20 tons and 1.3 meters in diameter. Central to the facility is a double-bath superfluid helium cryostat reaching 1.8 K at 1.2 bar. Integrated with a 15 T superconducting dipole from LBNL, HFVMTF supports HTS cable testing for fusion applications. This paper presents the design and fabrication of the cryostat, with a focus on two complex components: the 2 K heat exchanger and the lambda plate. The heat exchanger thermally links sub-atmospheric and pressurized helium baths. The 1.4-meter lambda plate provides thermal isolation and structural support for over 20 tons under 1.3 bar pressure differential. Finite Element Analysis validated the vessel’s integrity under maximum load conditions.

Bruce, Romain [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000234200612)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Mesoscale Modeling to Characterize Eagle Soaring Habitat

Uncovering drivers of risk is crucial to understanding interactions between wildlife and wind turbines, and identifying options for impact minimization. These drivers tie to co-variates linked to behavior and movement patterns that allow us to estimate locations and periods of risk. For volant species, atmospheric flow can have significant influence on flight patterns. For obligate soaring birds, like golden eagles, updraft velocities can inform where eagles are likely to travel, at what altitude, and where conditions are not likely sufficient to sustain soaring flight. This has been an active area of study in recent years, using relatively coarse atmospheric data generally at the 20km x 20km scale or larger. Leveraging a 20-year dataset from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) (https://www.mmm.ucar.edu/weather-research-and-forecasting-model), we are quantifying vertical velocities across the continental United States at a 2km x 2km resolution. Wind resource data sets originally were static maps showing the mean annual wind speed over an area. However, for these data sets to be optimally used for various applications they must be high-resolution time series, seamlessly span large geographic contexts, and account for uncertainty in wind speed. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory is producing public available datasets that meet these criteria and will be bias corrected to yield the most accurate wind resource data. This effort is an augment to the current WIND Toolkit which houses a high resolution data set. In the new iteration of the WIND Toolkit, a 20-year dataset will be used to improve the accuracy and estimate uncertainty using ensemble and machine-learning techniques. The resulting product will be the most accurate dataset of its size and at a 2km x 2km spatial and 5-minute temporal resolution. Through this work, a mesoscale vertical velocity layer will be produced by calculating the likelihood of orographic updraft and thermal updraft conditions across the continental United States. Specifically, we will use WRF model output combined with digital elevation maps to predict updrafts and then determine if vertical velocities are sufficient to support Golden Eagle soaring and gliding. Ultimately this data layer will be made available as a GIS layer in the Wind Prospector (maps.nrel.gov/wind-prospector/) tool or a similar framework. Data that will be incorporated include wind speed, direction temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, air density, precipitation rate, solar radiation, atmospheric stability, skin temperature, and upward heat flux. These products will advance research on interactions between volant species and wind energy by providing open access to highly resolved data with uncertainty quantification not previously available at this scale.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fabrication of the HFVMTF Double-Bath Cryostat

Bruce, R. [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000234200612)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Scalar Flux Profiles in the Unstable Atmospheric Surface Layer Under the Influence of Large Eddies: Implications for Eddy Covariance Flux Measurements and the Non‐Closure Problem

How convective boundary-layer (CBL) processes modify fluxes of sensible (SH) and latent (LH) heat and CO 2 (F c ) in the atmospheric surface layer (ASL) remains a recalcitrant problem. Here, large eddy simulations for the CBL show that while SH in the ASL decreases linearly with height regardless of soil moisture conditions, LH and F c decrease linearly with height over wet soils but increase with height over dry soils. This varying flux divergence/convergence is regulated by changes in asymmetric flux transport between top-down and bottom-up processes. Such flux divergence and convergence indicate that turbulent fluxes measured in the ASL underestimate and overestimate the “true” surface interfacial fluxes, respectively. While the non-closure of the surface energy balance persists across all soil moisture states, it improves over drier soils due to overestimated LH. The non-closure does not imply that F c is always underestimated; F c can be overestimated over dry soils despite the non-closure issue.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2022

Strong Red Noise Ocean Forcing on Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Assessed from Surface Heat Flux: Theory and Application

The role of ocean forcing on Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is assessed from the (downward) heat flux–SST relation in the framework of a new stochastic climate theory forced by red noise ocean forcing. Previous studies suggested that atmospheric forcing drives SST variability from monthly to interannual time scales, with a positive heat flux–SST correlation, while heat flux induced by ocean processes can drive SST variability at decadal and longer time scales, with a negative heat flux–SST correlation. Here, first, we develop a theory to show how the sign of heat flux–SST correlation is affected by atmospheric and oceanic forcing with time scale. In particular, a red noise ocean forcing is necessary for the sign reversal of heat flux–SST correlation. Furthermore, this sign reversal can be detected equivalently in three approaches: the low-pass correlation at lag zero, the unfiltered correlation at long (heat flux) lead, and the real part of the heat flux–SST coherence. Second, we develop a new scheme in combination with the theory to assess the magnitude and time scale of the red noise ocean forcing for AMV in the GFDL SPEAR model (Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research) and observations. In both the model and observations, the ocean forcing on AMV is in general comparable with the atmospheric forcing, with a 90% probability greater than the atmospheric forcing in observations. In contrast to the white noise atmospheric forcing, the ocean forcing has a persistence time comparable or longer than a year, much longer than the SST persistence of ~3 months. This slow ocean forcing is associated implicitly with slow subsurface ocean dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Atmosphere–Ocean Coupled Energy Budgets of Tropical Convective Discharge–Recharge Cycles

An energy budget combining atmospheric moist static energy (MSE) and upper ocean heat content (OHC) is used to examine the processes impacting day-to-day convective variability in the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Feedbacks arising from atmospheric and oceanic transport processes, surface fluxes, and radiation drive the cyclical amplification and decay of convection around suppressed and enhanced convective equilibrium states, referred to as shallow and deep convective discharge–recharge (D–R) cycles, respectively. The shallow convective D–R cycle is characterized by alternating enhancements of shallow cumulus and stratocumulus, often in the presence of extensive cirrus clouds. The deep convective D–R cycle is characterized by sequential increases in shallow cumulus, congestus, narrow deep precipitation, wide deep precipitation, a mix of detached anvil and altostratus and altocumulus, and once again shallow cumulus cloud types. Transitions from the shallow to deep D–R cycle are favored by a positive “column process” feedback, while discharge of convective instability and OHC by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contributes to transitions from the deep to shallow D–R cycle. Variability in the processes impacting MSE is comparable in magnitude to, but considerably more balanced than, variability in the processes impacting OHC. Variations in the quantity of atmosphere–ocean coupled static energy (MSE + OHC) result primarily from atmospheric and oceanic transport processes, but are mainly realized as changes in OHC. MCSs are unique in their ability to rapidly discharge both lower-tropospheric convective instability and OHC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Pinned Clouds over Industrial Sources of Heat during TRACER

An analysis of stereo-camera data from the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) campaign in Houston, Texas, reveals the existence of pinned clouds sitting atop industrial heat sources. These are not plumes of vapor and condensate emanating from stacks: The pinned shallow cumuli have cloud bases at about the lifting condensation of near-surface air. On many mornings, the pinned clouds are the only shallow cumuli in the field of view of the stereo cameras, persisting by themselves for at least an hour. On those mornings, the lower atmosphere straddles the boundary between stable and unstable, and the waste heat from industrial facilities is able to pin moist convection overhead. When solar heating of the surface becomes sufficient later in the morning, those mornings transition to having widespread shallow moist convection. Occurring within the field of view of the stereo cameras and other TRACER instruments, these pinned clouds represent steady plume-like moist convection triggered by known heat sources in a well-characterized atmosphere, making them a rich target for further study. Significance Statement This article introduces steady-state cumulus clouds observed during the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) campaign that were pinned to industrial heat sources. These pinned clouds were present in the early morning only when conditions were primed for moist convection, but for which there was not yet enough solar heating to trigger widespread convection. They persist in a statistical steady state and therefore provide a natural setting to explore the mechanisms controlling convective dynamics, which play a central role in Earth’s atmospheric circulation and radiative balance.

Atmosphere↗

DOE OSTI2023

System efficiency and power assessment of the all-aqueous copper thermally regenerative ammonia battery

Thermally regenerative ammonia batteries (TRABs) use low-temperature (T < 100 °C) heat to provide stationary energy and power with higher power densities and efficiency relative to other waste heat devices. TRABs are an active area of research in waste heat devices, but currently there is little consensus on what aspect of the system is limiting TRAB performance and what maximum efficiencies are possible. Experiments and numerical models were used here to examine the sensitivity of the battery and distillation column in a TRAB system to key operating variables, thereby establishing practical limits and identifying focus areas for improving performance. Battery power was eight times more sensitive to ohmic losses than kinetic and mass transfer losses, regardless of the operating temperature, and the peak power density was simulated to be 18.8 mW cm –2 at 75 °C. Theoretical energy efficiency limits were defined for a series of ammonia concentrations and operating pressures, ranging from 5 – 12%, which is 2–3 times higher than previous experimental estimations. Atmospheric pressure column operation used a larger amount of waste heat compared to sub-atmospheric pressure. It is estimated that the volume of the battery would take up 9.2m 3 for every 1% of the power output of a natural gas turbine, but with realistic improvements to cell conductivity, the size would reduce to 2.5 m 3 . Finally, the results presented in this work will help streamline future development by focusing on minimizing ohmic losses and provide specific data for full system evaluation of future TRABs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Structural Uncertainty in the Sensitivity of Urban Temperatures to Anthropogenic Heat Flux

One key source of uncertainty for weather and climate models is structural uncertainty arising from the fact that these models must simplify or approximate complex physical, chemical, and biological processes that occur in the real world. However, structural uncertainty is rarely examined in the context of simulated effects of anthropogenic heat flux in cities. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model, it is found that the sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature to anthropogenic heat flux can differ by an order of magnitude depending on how anthropogenic heat flux is released to the urban environment. Moreover, varying model structures through changing the treatment of roof-air interaction and the parameterization of convective heat transfer between the canopy air and the atmosphere can affect the sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature by a factor of 4. Urban surface temperature and 2-m air temperature are less sensitive to the methods of anthropogenic heat flux release and the examined model structural variants than urban canopy air temperature, but their sensitivities to anthropogenic heat flux can still vary by as much as a factor of 4 for surface temperature and 2 for 2-m air temperature. Our study recommends using temperature sensitivity instead of temperature response to understand how various physical processes (and their representations in numerical models) modulate the simulated effects of anthropogenic heat flux.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Eddy Covariance Theory: A Review

Eddy covariance (EC), the gold standard for measuring ecosystem scale gas and heat exchanges, has transformed our understanding of the breathing of the biosphere, and thus global change biology. Despite numerous methodological improvements and insights gained from the technique, the community faces persistent challenges that have been present since the first EC measurements. Here, we review the theoretical developments underpinning EC. We present theoretical developments in four important areas that have relevance to EC measurements of the net ecosystem exchanges (NEE) of gases and heat from a single tower: (i) measuring the total vertical flux density, (ii) flux attenuation, (iii) coordinate rotations, and (iv) energy balance closure. Persistent problems with EC measurements, such as the inability to close the energy budget, led us to identify two priorities for revisiting the theory underlying: (i) sensible heat flux calculations, and (ii) constraining the mean vertical wind velocity. We present a framework for improved calculation of sensible heat flux derived from first principles of fluid mechanics and thermodynamics that considers coupled heat and mass transfer so that conservation of both is obeyed. These refinements are motivated by the need for unbiased measurements of energy and mass transfer between the land surface and atmosphere for ecosystem research and to validate satellite observations and land surface models.

ecosystem fluxes↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results

Accurate representation of the turbulent exchange of carbon, water, and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere is critical for modelling global energy, water, and carbon cycles in both future climate projections and weather forecasts. Evaluation of models' ability to do this is performed in a wide range of simulation environments, often without explicit consideration of the degree of observational constraint or uncertainty and typically without quantification of benchmark performance expectations. We describe a Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) that attempts to resolve these shortcomings, comparing the surface turbulent heat flux predictions of around 20 different land models provided with in situ meteorological forcing evaluated with measured surface fluxes using quality-controlled data from 170 eddy-covariance-based flux tower sites. Predictions from seven out-of-sample empirical models are used to quantify the information available to land models in their forcing data and so the potential for land model performance improvement. Sites with unusual behaviour, complicated processes, poor data quality, or uncommon flux magnitude are more difficult to predict for both mechanistic and empirical models, providing a means of fairer assessment of land model performance. When examining observational uncertainty, model performance does not appear to improve in low-turbulence periods or with energy-balance-corrected flux tower data, and indeed some results raise questions about whether the energy balance correction process itself is appropriate. In all cases the results are broadly consistent, with simple out-of-sample empirical models, including linear regression, comfortably outperforming mechanistic land models. In all but two cases, latent heat flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 are better predicted by land models than sensible heat flux, despite it seeming to have fewer physical controlling processes. Land models that are implemented in Earth system models also appear to perform notably better than stand-alone ecosystem (including demographic) models, at least in terms of the fluxes examined here. The approach we outline enables isolation of the locations and conditions under which model developers can know that a land model can improve, allowing information pathways and discrete parameterisations in models to be identified and targeted for future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗