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215 records · Page 12

Nonlinear anelastic modal theory for solar convection

Solar envelope models are developed using single-mode anelastic equations as a description of turbulent convection which provide estimates for the variation with depth of the largest convective cellular flows, with horizontal sizes comparable to the total depth of the convection zone. These models can be used to describe compressible motions occurring over many density scale heights. Single-mode anelastic solutions are obtained for a solar envelope whose mean stratification is nearly adiabatic over most of its vertical extent because of the enthalpy flux explicitly carried by the big cell, while a subgrid scale representation of turbulent heat transport is incorporated into the treatment near the surface. It is shown that the single-mode equations allow two solutions for the same horizontal wavelength which are distinguished by the sense of the vertical velocity at the center of the three-dimensional cell. It is found that the upward directed flow experiences large pressure effects which can modify the density fluctuations so that the sense of the buoyancy force is changed, with buoyancy braking actually achieved near the top of the convection zone. It is suggested that such dynamical processes may explain why the amplitudes of flows related to the largest scales of convection are so weak in the solar atmosphere.

Latour, J.↗

Simulated interannual variability of the Greenland Sea deep water formation and its connection to surface forcing

A fully prognostic Arctic ice-ocean model is used to study the interannual variability of deepwater formation in the Greenland Sea Gyre based on the simulations for the Arctic ice-ocean system for the period 1955 and 1960 - 1985. The model uses monthly climatology for thermodynamic forcing components (such as air temperature and cloudiness), together with constant annual net precipitation and river runoff. The daily wind forcing is derived from analyzed sea level air pressures from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). In summary, the model shows that the occurence of deep convection in the Greenland Sea Gyre is controlled by the extensive Fram Strait ice export and/or local wind conditions in the Greenland Sea. In the latter case the weakening of the local wind curl allows the Polar Front to move eastward. The movement of the Polar Front causes adverse ice conditions, often together with much larger than normal ice export from the Arctic, such as in 1968, which can block convection in the gyre. The density difference between upper and lower layers is investigated as an indication of water mass formation through convection, occurring as strong diffusion in the model. The model-simulated density difference between the average top 100 m and deep levels reveals that the period 1960 - 1985 had only a few distinct years with weak stratification, and, especially, the model predicts no deep convection since the nid-1970s. The common factor for the years of the weakest decrease of the model-predicted heat content of the upper 2000 m which can, to a high degree, be explained by local heat loss.

Haekkinen, Sirpa↗

FNAS: The magnetic configuration leading to solar flares

We present a method for solving plasma magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) problems arising from the interaction of plasmas with magnetic fields in stellar atmospheres. Our approach, in contrast to previous methods, is not based on solving equations for the magnetic field and plasma velocity but rather studies the evolution of the electric current and density (and the related gas pressure). We have applied the method to several studies involving linearized departures from static, current-free equilibria. The applications show explicit solutions for cases found in astrophysics and to problems encountered with earlier studies where the gas pressure was neglected. The method is particularly well suited for studying situations which involve a transition between high and low plasma-beta regions. It shows precisely how electric currents, and magnetic free-energy, build up in the plasma as a result of the slow stressing of a potential magnetic field configuration. The method also demonstrates how transverse-current waves, a mix of Alfven and magneto-acoustic modes, propagate in a low-beta plasma for any density stratification and background field geometry.

Fontenla, Juan M.↗

Modeling Offshore Wind Farm Performance in Coastal Low-Level Jets Using Coupled Mesoscale-Microscale Large Eddy Simulations

Accurately predicting wind farm reliability under complex offshore atmospheric conditions remains a key challenge, particularly during noncanonical meteorological events such as coastal low-level jets (LLJs). LLJs, characterized by strong nonmonotonic vertical shear and directional veer, depart significantly from the simplified inflow assumptions embedded in conventional design standards, low-fidelity engineering models, and microscale large eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer. In this work, we use the virtual wind farm framework—an exascale, graphics processing unit–accelerated large eddy simulation platform coupled with high-fidelity aeroservoelastic turbine models and advanced mesoscale-microscale coupling via the ExaWind software stack—to investigate turbine responses under realistic LLJ forcing. Simulations are performed over the U.S. North Atlantic offshore domain with the use of meteorological inputs from New York State Energy Research and Development Authority buoy data, focusing on a representative LLJ case impacting the International Energy Agency 15 MW reference turbine. Our results show that LLJs can cause up to 50% power deficits in downstream turbine rows and significantly amplify low-speed shaft and tower loads through nonlinear coupling between complex inflow characteristics and turbine structural dynamics. Two primary mechanisms drive these load amplifications: (1) unique LLJ inflow features—including veer and vertical/lateral shear—and (2) the downstream evolution of the flow under stable thermal stratification, which suppresses turbulence mixing and alters wake recovery. These mechanisms produce streamwise variations in turbine loading not captured by standard hub height–based metrics or existing design load case (DLC) definitions. This study highlights the critical role of rotor-scale flow gradients in driving fatigue and system-level aeroelastic responses, challenging current DLC and control strategies. We advocate the integration of full-flow field, environment-aware wind inputs into load modeling and control algorithms. By leveraging exascale computing to resolve mesoscale-microscale coupling, this work lays the groundwork for next-generation offshore wind turbine design and operation in meteorologically complex marine environments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Storm-driven Mixing and Potential Impact on the Arctic Ocean

Observations of the ocean, atmosphere, and ice made by Ice-Ocean Environmental Buoys (IOEBs) indicate that mixing events reaching the depth of the halocline have occurred in various regions in the Arctic Ocean. Our analysis suggests that these mixing events were mechanically forced by intense storms moving across the buoy sites. In this study, we analyzed these mixing events in the context of storm developments that occurred in the Beaufort Sea and in the general area just north of Fram Strait, two areas with quite different hydrographic structures. The Beaufort Sea is strongly influenced by inflow of Pacific water through Bering Strait, while the area north of Fram Strait is directly affected by the inflow of warm and salty North Atlantic water. Our analyses of the basin-wide evolution of the surface pressure and geostrophic wind fields indicate that the characteristics of the storms could be very different. The buoy-observed mixing occurred only in the spring and winter seasons when the stratification was relatively weak. This indicates the importance of stratification, although the mixing itself was mechanically driven. We also analyze the distribution of storms, both the long-term climatology as well as the patterns for each year in the last two decades. The frequency of storms is also shown to be correlated- (but not strongly) to Arctic Oscillation indices. This study indicates that the formation of new ice that leads to brine rejection is unlikely the mechanism that results in the type of mixing that could overturn the halocline. On the other hand, synoptic-scale storms can force mixing deep enough to the halocline and thermocline layer. Despite a very stable stratification associated with the Arctic halocline, the warm subsurface thermocline water is not always insulated from the mixed layer.

Yang, Jiayan↗

Exploring Environmental and Aerosol Impacts on Maritime Tropical Convection using Airborne Radiometer, Radar, Lidar, and Dropsondes

The field deployment phase of NASA’s Cloud, Aerosol and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex) took place around the Philippines during August–October 2019, with the primary goal of jointly investigating aerosols and tropical meteorology at the micro-β to meso-β scales. A suite of instruments was deployed on NASA’s P-3B Orion aircraft to accomplish this mission, including: the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR), Airborne Precipitation and cloud Radar 3rd Generation (APR-3), High Spectral Resolution Lidar 2 (HSRL2), and Advanced Vertical Atmospheric Profiling System (AVAPS) dropsondes. To examine potential aerosol influences on maritime tropical convection, P-3 flight segments throughout CAMP2Ex were binned into similar environmental groups using “low,” “medium,” and “high” values of nine AVAPS-derived parameters with known physical connections to convective frequency and/or intensity. Aerosol concentrations in each flight segment were evaluated using three HSRL2 variables at 355 and 532 nm: aerosol backscatter, aerosol extinction, and aerosol optical thickness. A set of radiometer- and radar-derived variables directly related to convective frequency and/or intensity was used to characterize convection, which included: AMPR-derived integrated cloud liquid water; polarization-corrected temperatures at 10.7, 19.35, 37.1, and 85.5 GHz; peak equivalent radar reflectivity factor (ZH); peak height of 30-dBZ ZH; and the number of radar data columns with composite ZH > 30 dBZ. The ZH analyses were performed using both Ku- and Ka-band APR-3 data. For each flight segment, correlation coefficients were calculated between each convective parameter and aerosol concentrations within the “low,” “medium,” and “high” groups for each environmental variable. The environmental stratification thresholds were then varied in a series of sensitivity tests. Several noteworthy correlations were observed between the convective and aerosol parameters within the environmental groups, especially when stratifying the environments based on their 850–500-hPa temperature lapse rate, 700–500-hPa temperature lapse rate, and K-Index. The convective parameters were often correlated most strongly with 355-nm extinction, 532-nm extinction, and 532-nm backscatter, while the presence of precipitation-sized liquid and ice hydrometeors contributed to some unexpected negative correlations. In general, as environmental conditions became more favorable for convection, a stronger correlation was observed between the convective parameters and aerosol concentrations. However, a “Goldilocks” zone of medium aerosol concentration was correlated most strongly with the convective parameters in many cases. These results stress the importance of considering environmental and aerosol conditions together when evaluating their impacts on convection. This presentation will provide a detailed discussion of these results and their implications, a summary of the limitations associated with such an analysis, and suggestions for future work.

Corey G. Amiot↗

Seasonal, Spectral, and Regional Characterization of Deep Convective Clouds Top-of-Atmosphere Bidirectional Reflectance for Improved Satellite Intercalibration

The NASA CERES project provides the scientific community with regional broadband fluxes designed for long-term climate monitoring. The CERES climate quality dataset requires that the CERES instrument, as well as the MODIS and VIIRS imager records to be radiometrically stable over time. Deep Convective Clouds (DCCs) are spectrally uniform, near-Lambertian natural diffusers offering high signal-to-noise ratio and stable radiometric response in the VIS-NIR spectrum. For shortwave infrared (SWIR) wavelengths greater than 1.2µm, the DCC response is significantly influenced by cloud particle size and atmospheric absorption. Previous studies improved the characterization of the SWIR band DCC radiance, by using channel specific monthly empirical BRDFs as well as using the probability density function mean statistic to track the SWIR band stability. Also, that the DCC radiance is greater over land than over ocean and that the TWP DCC radiance has the lowest tropical DCC radiance. This study confirms and improves upon the previous studies. The study stratified the tropics regionally into land and ocean domains and applied their respective ocean-only and land-only empirical monthly BRDFs and normalized the land DCC BRDF corrected radiances with their ocean counterpart. This approach provided the most stable DCC response. The DCC BRDF corrected radiance monthly standard error was 0.24%, 0.62%, 0.59%, and 0.43% for the 1.24µm, 1.37µm, 1.61µm, and 2.25µm SWIR bands, which reduced the standard error 20%, 13%, 24%, and 26%, respectively when compared with the all-surface approach. The same approach was attempted over the Tropical Western Pacific and found not to be an improvement over the tropical domain. Further stratification of the tropical domain will need to balance sufficient sampling while accounting for regional DCC radiance differences.

Prathana Khakurel↗

The Two-Energies Turbulence Scheme Coupled to the Assumed PDF Method

An update of the two-energy turbulence scheme is presented, the 2TE + APDF scheme. The original version of the two-energy scheme is able to successfully model shallow convection without the need of an additional parameterization for non-local fluxes. However, the performance of the two-energy scheme is worse in stratocumulus cases, where it tends to overestimate the erosion of the stable layers. We have identified the causes: the non-local stability parameter does not consider local stratification, the scheme lacks an internal parameter that could distinguish between a shallow convection regime and a stratocumulus regime, and it uses an inflexible turbulence length scale formulation. To alleviate this problem, we propose several modifications: an update of the stability parameter, a modified computation of the turbulence length scale, and the introduction of the entropy potential temperature to distinguish between a shallow convection and a stratocumulus regime. In addition, the two-energy scheme is coupled to a simplified assumed probability density function method in order to achieve a more universal representation of the cloudy regimes. The updated turbulence scheme is evaluated for several idealized cases and one selected real case in the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) modeling framework. The results show that the updated scheme corrects the overmixing problem in the stratocumulus cases. The performance of the updated scheme is comparable to the operational setup, and can be thus used instead of the operational turbulence and shallow convection scheme in ICON. Additionally, the updated scheme improves the coupling with dynamics, which is beneficial for the modeling of coherent flow structures in the atmospheric boundary layer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Martian Polar Vortices: Comparison of Reanalyses

The structure and evolution of the Martian polar vortices is examined using two recently available reanalysis systems: version 1.0 of the Mars Analysis Correction Data Assimilation (MACDA) and a preliminary version of the Ensemble Mars Atmosphere Reanalysis System (EMARS). There is quantitative agreement between the reanalyses in the lower atmosphere, where Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) data are assimilated, but there are differences at higher altitudes reflecting differences in the free-running general circulation model simulations used in the two reanalyses. The reanalyses show similar potential vorticity (PV) structure of the vortices: There is near-uniform small PV equatorward of the core of the westerly jet, steep meridional PV gradients on the polar side of the jet core, and a maximum of PV located off of the pole. In maps of 30 sol mean PV, there is a near-continuous elliptical ring of high PV with roughly constant shape and longitudinal orientation from fall to spring. However, the shape and orientation of the vortex varies on daily time scales, and there is not a continuous ring of PV but rather a series of smaller scale coherent regions of high PV. The PV structure of the Martian polar vortices is, as has been reported before, very different from that of Earth's stratospheric polar vortices, but there are similarities with Earth's tropospheric vortices which also occur at the edge of the Hadley Cell, and have near-uniform small PV equatorward of the jet, and a large increase of PV poleward of the jet due to increased stratification.

Waugh, D. W.↗

Dissolved Organic Carbon in Coastal Waters: Global Patterns, Stocks and Environmental Physical Controls

Abstract Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in coastal waters is integral to biogeochemical cycling, but global and regional drivers of DOC are still uncertain. In this study we explored spatial and temporal differences in DOC concentrations and stocks across the global coastal ocean, and how these relate to temperature and salinity. We estimated a global median coastal DOC stock of 3.15 Pg C (interquartile range (IQR) = 0.85 Pg C), with median DOC concentrations being 2.2 times higher than in open ocean surface waters. Globally and seasonally, salinity was the main driver of DOC with concentrations correlated negatively with salinity, without a clear relationship to temperature. DOC concentrations and stocks varied with region and season and this pattern is likely driven by riverine inputs of DOC and nutrients that stimulate coastal phytoplankton production. Temporally, high DOC concentrations occurred mainly in months with high freshwater input, with some exceptions such as in Eastern Boundary Current margins where peaks are related to primary production stimulated by nutrients upwelled from the adjacent ocean. No spatial trend between DOC and temperature was apparent, but many regions (19 out of 25) had aligned peaks of seasonal temperature and DOC, related to increased phytoplankton production and vertical stratification at high temperatures. Links of coastal DOC with salinity and temperature highlight the potential for anthropogenic impacts to alter coastal DOC concentration and composition, and thereby ecosystem status.

Lønborg, Christian [Section for Marine Diversity a↗

Climate projections over the Great Lakes Region: using two-way coupling of a regional climate model with a 3-D lake model

Abstract. Warming trends in the Laurentian Great Lakes and surrounding areas have been observed in recent decades, and concerns continue to rise about the pace and pattern of future climate change over the world's largest freshwater system. To date, most regional climate models used for Great Lakes projections either neglected the lake-atmosphere interactions or are only coupled with a 1-D column lake model to represent the lake hydrodynamics. This study presents a Great Lakes climate change projection that has employed the two-way coupling of a regional climate model with a 3-D lake model (GLARM) to resolve 3-D hydrodynamics essential for large lakes. Using the three carefully selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs), we show that the GLARM ensemble average substantially reduces surface air temperature and precipitation biases of the driving GCM ensemble average in present-day climate simulations. The improvements are not only displayed from an atmospheric perspective but are also evident in the accurate simulations of lake temperature and ice coverage. We further present the GLARM projected climate change for the mid-21st century (2030–2049) and the late 21st century (2080–2099) in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Under RCP 8.5, the Great Lakes basin is projected to warm by 1.3–2.1 ∘C by the mid-21st century and 4.1–5.0 ∘C by the end of the century relative to the early century (2000–2019). Moderate mitigation (RCP 4.5) reduces the mid-century warming to 0.8–1.8 ∘C and late-century warming to 1.8–2.7 ∘C. Annual precipitation in GLARM is projected to increase for the entire basin, varying from 0 % to 13 % during the mid-century and from 9 % to 32 % during the late century in different scenarios and simulations. The most significant increases are projected in spring and fall when current precipitation is highest and a minimal increase in winter when it is lowest. Lake surface temperatures (LSTs) are also projected to increase across the five lakes in all of the simulations, but with strong seasonal and spatial variability. The most significant LST increases occur in Lakes Superior and Ontario. The strongest warming is projected in spring that persists into the summer, resulting from earlier and more intense stratification in the future. In addition, diminishing winter stratification in the future suggests the transition from dimictic lakes to monomictic lakes by the end of the century. In contrast, a relatively smaller increase in LSTs during fall and winter is projected with heat transfer to the deep water due to the strong mixing and energy required for ice melting. Correspondingly, the highest monthly mean ice cover is projected to reduce to 3 %–15 % and 10 %–40 % across the lakes by the end of the century in RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5, respectively. In the coastal regions, ice duration is projected to decrease by up to 60 d.

Xue, Pengfei (ORCID:000000025702421X)↗

The Northeast Monsoon's Impact on Mixing, Phytoplankton Biomass and Nutrient Cycling in the Arabian Sea

In the northern Arabian Sea, atmospheric conditions during the Northeast (winter) Monsoon lead to deep convective mixing. Due to the proximity of the permanent pyncnocline to the sea surface, this mixing does not penetrate below 125 m. However, a strong nitracline is also present and the deep convection results in significant nitrate flux into the surface waters. This leads to nitrate concentrations over the upper 100 m that exceed 4 micrometers toward the end of the Monsoon. During the 1994/1995 US JGOFS/Arabian Sea expedition, the mean areal gross primary production over two successive Northeast Monsoons was determined to be 1.35gC/sq m/d. Thus, despite the deep penetrative convection, high rates of primary productivity were maintained. An interdisciplinary model was developed to elucidate the biogeochemical processes involved in supporting the elevated productivity. This model consists of a 1-D mixed-layer model coupled to a set of equations that tracked phytoplankton growth and the concentration of the two major nutrients (nitrate and ammonium). Zooplankton grazing was parameterized by rate constant determined by shipboard experiments. Model boundary conditions consist of meteorological time-series measured from the surface buoy that was part of the ONR Arabian Sea Experiment's central mooring. Our numerical experiments show that elevated surface evaporation, and the associated salinization of the mixed layer, strongly contributes to the frequency and penetration depth of the observed convective mixing. Cooler surface temperatures, increased nitrate entrainment, reduced water column stratification, and lower near-surface chlorophyll a concentrations all result from this enhanced mixing. The model also captured a dependence on regenerated nitrogen observed in nutrient uptake experiments performed during the Northeast Monsoon. Our numerical experiments also indicate that variability in mean pycnocline depth causes up to a 25% reduction in areal chlorophyll a concentration. We hypothesize that such shifts in pycnocline depth may contribute to the interannual variations in primary production and surface chlorophyll a concentration that have been previously observed in this region.

Wiggert, J. D.↗

Improving a Multilevel Turbulence Closure Model for a Shallow Lake in Comparison With Other 1-D Models

Lakes differ from lands in water availability, heat capacity, albedo, and roughness, which affect local surface-atmospheric interactions. This study modified a multilevel upper ocean model (UOM) for lake applications and evaluated its performance in Lake Taihu (China) with comprehensive measurements against three popular one-dimensional (1-D) lake models. These models were based on different concepts, including the self-similarity (FLake), the wind-driven eddy diffusion (LISSS), the k-ε turbulence closure (SIMSTRAT), and a simplified turbulence closure (UOM). The surface flux scheme in these models was unified to exclude the discrepancies in representing air-lake exchanges. All models in their default formulations presented obvious cold water temperature biases and largely underestimated the lake surface temperature (LST) diurnal range. For each model, these deficiencies were significantly reduced by incorporating new physics schemes or calibrated tunable parameters based on systematic sensitivity tests. The primary modifications for UOM included (1) a new scheme of decreased surface roughness lengths to better characterize the shallow lake, (2) a solar radiation penetration scheme with increased light extinction coefficient and surface absorption fraction to account for the high water turbidity, and (3) turbulent Prandtl number increased by a factor of 20 to reduce the turbulent vertical mixing. All other models were improved in these three aspects (roughness, extinction, and mixing) within their original formulations. Given these improvements, UOM showed superior performance to other models in capturing LST diurnal cycle and daily to seasonal variations, as well as summer-autumn vertical stratification changes. The new UOM is well suited for application in shallow lakes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Constraints on simulated past Arctic amplification and lapse rate feedback from observations

The Arctic has warmed more rapidly than the global mean during the past few decades. The lapse rate feedback (LRF) has been identified as being a large contributor to the Arctic amplification (AA) of climate change. This particular feedback arises from the vertically non-uniform warming of the troposphere, which in the Arctic emerges as strong near-surface and muted free-tropospheric warming. Stable stratification and meridional energy transport are two characteristic processes that are evoked as causes for this vertical warming structure. Our aim is to constrain these governing processes by making use of detailed observations in combination with the large climate model ensemble of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We build on the result that CMIP6 models show a large spread in AA and Arctic LRF, which are positively correlated for the historical period of 1951–2014. Thus, we present process-oriented constraints by linking characteristics of the current climate to historical climate simulations. In particular, we compare a large consortium of present-day observations to co-located model data from subsets that show a weak and strong simulated AA and Arctic LRF in the past. Our analyses suggest that the vertical temperature structure of the Arctic boundary layer is more realistically depicted in climate models with weak (w) AA and Arctic LRF (CMIP6/w) in the past. In particular, CMIP6/w models show stronger inversions in the present climate for boreal autumn and winter and over sea ice, which is more consistent with the observations. These results are based on observations from the year-long Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in the central Arctic, long-term measurements at the Utqiagvik site in Alaska, USA, and dropsonde temperature profiling from aircraft campaigns in the Fram Strait. In addition, the atmospheric energy transport from lower latitudes that can further mediate the warming structure in the free troposphere is more realistically represented by CMIP6/w models. In particular, CMIP6/w models systemically simulate a weaker Arctic atmospheric energy transport convergence in the present climate for boreal autumn and winter, which is more consistent with fifth generation reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). We further show a positive relationship between the magnitude of the present-day transport convergence and the strength of past AA. With respect to the Arctic LRF, we find links between the changes in transport pathways that drive vertical warming structures and local differences in the LRF. This highlights the mediating influence of advection on the Arctic LRF and motivates deeper studies to explicitly link spatial patterns of Arctic feedbacks to changes in the large-scale circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of Antarctic and Greenland Continental Shelf Circulation on High‐Latitude Oceans in E3SM

The science objectives of this project are to simulate and understand the impacts of both deep-basin warm-water intrusions and land-ice melt on the continental shelf circulations and sea-ice distributions around the margins of Greenland and Antarctica. As well, the role of subsurface ocean heat from the Atlantic on declining sea-ice cover in the Arctic is explored. Mesoscale processes and fine bathymetry are implicated in cross-shelf property transports around both Greenland and Antarctica. Therefore, we configured and ran an atmospheric reanalysis-forced global ocean/sea-ice simulation on a grid that reduces from 8 km at the Equator to 2 km at the poles (UH8to2) with 60 vertical levels. It was produced using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model ‘‘HiLAT’’ code (E3SMv0-HiLAT) that uses the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) and CICE5 as its ocean and sea-ice components, respectively. Two main UH8to2 simulations were carried out: one for 1975-2009 and the other for July 2016-2020 after it was initialized from a 1/25° data-assimilative ocean/sea-ice prediction system ocean/sea-ice state. The UH8to2 is not coupled to an active land-ice model. Rather, land-ice melt is represented by observationally informed freshwater fluxes (FWFs). Short (multi-year) UH8to2 simulations were conducted to understand sensitivities when Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melt is released only at the ocean surface or when it is distributed over the upper water column in accordance with fjord melt plume behavior; these cases were compared with a no GrIS melt case. West Greenland continental shelf currents were fastest in the vertical distribution case and an increase in baroclinic conversion at the shelf break associated with increased eddy kinetic energy was found relative to the surface release case. Further, salinity is lower and meltwater volume greater in the eastern Labrador Sea in the vertical distribution case. For the Arctic, the veracity of the UH8to2 was evaluated for 2017-2020 using available observations. Simulated seasonal sea-ice thickness and concentration are realistic, but the ice is unrealistically thin in the central and eastern Arctic in the fall. Comparisons of vertical sections of ocean temperature, salinity, and buoyancy collected from Ice-Tethered Profilers (ITPs) in the eastern Arctic in the fall and winter of 2019/2020 and co-located/concurrent UH8to2 fields show the stratification over the top 100 m of the water column is too low in the model, the simulated mixed layer too deep, and the simulated subsurface Atlantic Water (AW) too warm; these biases may contribute to the sea-ice biases. A model intercomparison study using the UH8to2 and a forced 1/25° regional Arctic ocean/sea-ice (uses the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model and CICE5) simulation further investigates the relationship between AW and sea-ice in the eastern Arctic. The models show a mesoscale-rich pulse of Atlantic Water extending into the eastern basin that reaches maximum intensity in late winter of 2018, after which it decreases in strength. Concurrent and co-located sea-ice melt or the inhibition of sea-ice growth is seen and is attributed to halocline mesoscale eddies doming into the mixed layer with convection bringing this heat into the vicinity of the sea-ice.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

WRF-simulated low-level jets over Iowa: characterization and sensitivity studies

Abstract. Output from 6 months of high-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are analyzed to characterize local low-level jets (LLJs) over Iowa for winter and spring in the contemporary climate. Low-level jets affect rotor plane aerodynamic loading, turbine structural loading and turbine performance, and thus accurate characterization and identification are pertinent. Analyses using a detection algorithm wherein the wind speed above and below the jet maximum must be below 80 % of the jet wind speed within a vertical window of approximately 20–530 m a.g.l. (above ground level) indicate the presence of an LLJ in at least one of the 14 700 4 km×4 km grid cells over Iowa on 98 % of nights. Nocturnal LLJs are most frequently associated with stable stratification and low turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and hence are more frequent during the winter months. The spatiotemporal mean LLJ maximum (jet core) wind speed is 9.55 m s−1, and the mean height is 182 m. Locations of high LLJ frequency and duration across the state are seasonally varying, with a mean duration of 3.5 h. The highest frequency occurs in the topographically complex northwest of the state in winter and in the flatter northeast of the state in spring. Sensitivity of LLJ characteristics to the (i) LLJ definition and (ii) vertical resolution at which the WRF output is sampled is examined. LLJ definitions commonly used in the literature are considered in the first sensitivity analysis. These sensitivity analyses indicate that LLJ characteristics are highly variable with definition. Use of different definitions identifies both different frequencies of LLJs and different LLJ events. Further, when the model output is down-sampled to lower vertical resolution, the mean jet core wind speed height decreases, but spatial distributions of regions of high frequency and duration are conserved. Implementation of a polynomial interpolation to extrapolate down-sampled output to full-resolution results in reduced sensitivity of LLJ characteristics to down-sampling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Biodiversity and Stoichiometric Plasticity Increase Pico‐Phytoplankton Contributions to Marine Net Primary Productivity and the Biological Pump

Earth System Models generally predict increasing upper ocean stratification from 21st century warming, which will cause a decrease in the vertical nutrient flux forcing declines in marine net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon export. Recent advances in quantifying marine ecosystem carbon to nutrient stoichiometry have identified large latitudinal and biome variability, with low-latitude oligotrophic systems harboring pico-sized phytoplankton exhibiting large phosphorus to carbon cellular plasticity. The climate forced changes in nutrient flux stoichiometry and phytoplankton community composition are thus likely to alter the ocean's biogeochemical response and feedback with the carbon-climate system. We have added three pico-phytoplankton functional types within the Biogeochemical Elemental Cycling component of the Community Earth System Model while incorporating variable cellular phosphorus to carbon stoichiometry for all represented phytoplankton types. The model simulates Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations that dominate the productivity and sinking carbon export of the tropical and subtropical ocean, and pico-eukaryote populations that contribute significantly to productivity and export within the subtropical to mid-latitude transition zone, with the western subtropical regions of each basin supporting the most P-poor stoichiometries. Subtropical gyre recirculation regions along the poleward flanks of surface western boundary currents are identified as regional hotspots of enhanced carbon export exhibiting C-rich/P-poor stoichiometry, preferentially inhabited by pico-eukaryotes and diatoms. Collectively, pico-phytoplankton contribute ∼58% of global NPP and ∼46% of global particulate organic carbon export below 100 m through direct and ecosystem processing pathways. Biodiversity and cellular nutrient plasticity in marine pico-phytoplankton combine to increase their contributions to ocean productivity and the biological carbon pump.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗