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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

Use of Collocated KWAJEX Satellite, Aircraft, and Ground Measurements for Understanding Ambiguities in TRMM Radiometer Rain Profile Algorithm

Coordinated ground, aircraft, and satellite observations are analyzed from the 1999 TRMM Kwajalein Atoll field experiment (KWAJEX) to better understand the relationships between cloud microphysical processes and microwave radiation intensities in the context of physical evaluation of the Level 2 TRMM radiometer rain profile algorithm and uncertainties with its assumed microphysics-radiation relationships. This talk focuses on the results of a multi-dataset analysis based on measurements from KWAJEX surface, air, and satellite platforms to test the hypothesis that uncertainties in the passive microwave radiometer algorithm (TMI 2a12 in the nomenclature of TRMM) are systematically coupled and correlated with the magnitudes of deviation of the assumed 3-dimensional microphysical properties from observed microphysical properties. Re-stated, this study focuses on identifying the weaknesses in the operational TRMM 2a12 radiometer algorithm based on observed microphysics and radiation data in terms of over-simplifications used in its theoretical microphysical underpinnings. The analysis makes use of a common transform coordinate system derived from the measuring capabilities of the aircraft radiometer used to survey the experimental study area, i.e., the 4-channel AMPR radiometer flown on the NASA DC-8 aircraft. Normalized emission and scattering indices derived from radiometer brightness temperatures at the four measuring frequencies enable a 2-dimensional coordinate system that facilities compositing of Kwajalein S-band ground radar reflectivities, ARMAR Ku-band aircraft radar reflectivities, TMI spacecraft radiometer brightness temperatures, PR Ku-band spacecraft radar reflectivities, bulk microphysical parameters derived from the aircraft-mounted cloud microphysics laser probes (including liquid/ice water contents, effective liquid/ice hydrometeor radii, and effective liquid/ice hydrometeor variances), and rainrates derived from any of the individual ground, aircraft, or satellite algorithms applied to the radar or radiometer measurements, or their combination. The results support the study's underlying hypothesis, particularly in context of ice phase processes, in that the cloud regions where the 2a12 algorithm's microphysical database most misrepresents the microphysical conditions as determined by the laser probes, are where retrieved surface rainrates are most erroneous relative to other reference rainrates as determined by ground and aircraft radar. In reaching these conclusions, TMI and PR brightness temperatures and reflectivities have been synthesized from the aircraft AMPR and ARMAR measurements with the analysis conducted in a composite framework to eliminate measurement noise associated with the case study approach and single element volumes obfuscated by heterogeneous beam filling effects. In diagnosing the performance of the 2a12 algorithm, weaknesses have been found in the cloud-radiation database used to provide microphysical guidance to the algorithm for upper cloud ice microphysics. It is also necessary to adjust a fractional convective rainfall factor within the algorithm somewhat arbitrarily to achieve satisfactory algorithm accuracy.

Smith, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Non-linear controls influence functions in an aircraft dynamics simulator

In the development and testing of novel structural and controls concepts, such as morphing aircraft wings, appropriate models are needed for proper system characterization. In most instances, available system models do not provide the required additional degrees of freedom for morphing structures but may be modified to some extent to achieve a compatible system. The objective of this study is to apply wind tunnel data collected for an Unmanned Air Vehicle (UAV), that implements trailing edge morphing, to create a non-linear dynamics simulator, using well defined rigid body equations of motion, where the aircraft stability derivatives change with control deflection. An analysis of this wind tunnel data, using data extraction algorithms, was performed to determine the reference aerodynamic force and moment coefficients for the aircraft. Further, non-linear influence functions were obtained for each of the aircraft s control surfaces, including the sixteen trailing edge flap segments. These non-linear controls influence functions are applied to the aircraft dynamics to produce deflection-dependent aircraft stability derivatives in a non-linear dynamics simulator. Time domain analysis of the aircraft motion, trajectory, and state histories can be performed using these nonlinear dynamics and may be visualized using a 3-dimensional aircraft model. Linear system models can be extracted to facilitate frequency domain analysis of the system and for control law development. The results of this study are useful in similar projects where trailing edge morphing is employed and will be instrumental in the University of Maryland s continuing study of active wing load control.

Guerreiro, Nelson M.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Dynamics and Adaptive Control for Stability Recovery of Damaged Aircraft

This paper presents a recent study of a damaged generic transport model as part of a NASA research project to investigate adaptive control methods for stability recovery of damaged aircraft operating in off-nominal flight conditions under damage and or failures. Aerodynamic modeling of damage effects is performed using an aerodynamic code to assess changes in the stability and control derivatives of a generic transport aircraft. Certain types of damage such as damage to one of the wings or horizontal stabilizers can cause the aircraft to become asymmetric, thus resulting in a coupling between the longitudinal and lateral motions. Flight dynamics for a general asymmetric aircraft is derived to account for changes in the center of gravity that can compromise the stability of the damaged aircraft. An iterative trim analysis for the translational motion is developed to refine the trim procedure by accounting for the effects of the control surface deflection. A hybrid direct-indirect neural network, adaptive flight control is proposed as an adaptive law for stabilizing the rotational motion of the damaged aircraft. The indirect adaptation is designed to estimate the plant dynamics of the damaged aircraft in conjunction with the direct adaptation that computes the control augmentation. Two approaches are presented 1) an adaptive law derived from the Lyapunov stability theory to ensure that the signals are bounded, and 2) a recursive least-square method for parameter identification. A hardware-in-the-loop simulation is conducted and demonstrates the effectiveness of the direct neural network adaptive flight control in the stability recovery of the damaged aircraft. A preliminary simulation of the hybrid adaptive flight control has been performed and initial data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid approach. Future work will include further investigations and high-fidelity simulations of the proposed hybrid adaptive Bight control approach.

Nguyen, Nhan↗
NASA NTRS1993

Lift augmentation for highly swept wing aircraft

A pair of spaced slots, disposed on each side of an aircraft centerline and spaced well inboard of the wing leading edges, are provided in the wing upper surfaces and directed tangentially spanwise toward thin sharp leading wing edges of a highly swept, delta wing aircraft. The slots are individually connected through separate plenum chambers to separate compressed air tanks and serve, collectively, as a system for providing aircraft lift augmentation. A compressed air supply is tapped from the aircraft turbojet power plant. Suitable valves, under the control of the aircraft pilot, serve to selective provide jet blowing from the individual slots to provide spanwise sheets of jet air closely adjacent to the upper surfaces and across the aircraft wing span to thereby create artificial vortices whose suction generate additional lift on the aircraft. When desired, or found necessary, unequal or one-side wing blowing is employed to generate rolling moments for augmented lateral control. Trailing flaps are provided that may be deflected differentially, individually, or in unison, as needed for assistance in take-off or landing of the aircraft.

Rao, Dhanvada M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Handling Qualities Prediction of an F-16XL-Based Reduced Sonic Boom Aircraft

A major goal of the Supersonics Project under NASA s Fundamental Aeronautics program is sonic boom reduction of supersonic aircraft. An important part of this effort is development and validation of sonic boom prediction tools used in aircraft design. NASA Dryden s F- 16XL was selected as a potential testbed aircraft to provide flight validation. Part of this task was predicting the handling qualities of the modified aircraft. Due to the high cost of modifying the existing F-16XL control laws, it was desirable to find modifications that reduced the aircraft sonic boom but did not degrade baseline aircraft handling qualities allowing for the potential of flight test without changing the current control laws. This was not a requirement for the initial modification design work, but an important consideration for proceeding to the flight test option. The primary objective of this work was to determine an aerodynamic and mass properties envelope of the F-16XL aircraft. The designers could use this envelope to determine the effect of proposed modifications on aircraft handling qualities.

Cogan, Bruce↗
NASA NTRS2010

The NASA Langley Research Center's Unmanned Aerial System Surrogate Research Aircraft

Research is needed to determine what procedures, aircraft sensors and other systems will be required to allow Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) to safely operate with manned aircraft in the National Airspace System (NAS). The NASA Langley Research Center has transformed a Cirrus Design SR22 general aviation (GA) aircraft into a UAS Surrogate research aircraft to serve as a platform for UAS systems research, development, flight testing and evaluation. The aircraft is manned with a Safety Pilot and systems operator that allows for flight operations almost anywhere in the NAS without the need for a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Certificate of Authorization (COA). The UAS Surrogate can be controlled from a modular, transportable ground station like a true UAS. The UAS Surrogate is able to file and fly in the NAS with normal traffic and is a better platform for real world UAS research and development than existing vehicles flying in restricted ranges or other sterilized airspace. The Cirrus Design SR22 aircraft is a small, singleengine, four-place, composite-construction aircraft that NASA Langley acquired to support NASA flight-research programs like the Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS) Project. Systems were installed to support flight test research and data gathering. These systems include: separate research power; multi-function flat-panel displays; research computers; research air data and inertial state sensors; video recording; data acquisition; data-link; S-band video and data telemetry; Common Airborne Instrumentation System (CAIS); Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B); instrumented surfaces and controls; and a systems operator work station. The transformation of the SR22 to a UAS Surrogate was accomplished in phases. The first phase was to modify the existing autopilot to accept external commands from a research computer that was connected by redundant data-link radios to a ground control station. An electro-mechanical auto-throttle was added in the next phase to provide ground station control of airspeed. Additional phases are in progress to add waypoint navigation and long range satellite voice and data communications. Potential areas for UAS Surrogate research include the development, flight test and evaluation of sensors to aid in the process of air traffic detect-sense-and-avoid. These sensors could be evaluated in real-time and compared with onboard human evaluation pilots. This paper describes the systems and design considerations that were incorporated in the development of the UAS Surrogate along with details of development problems encountered and the corresponding solutions.

Howell, Charles T., III↗
NASA NTRS2011

Turboelectric Distributed Propulsion in a Hybrid Wing Body Aircraft

The performance of the N3-X, a 300 passenger hybrid wing body (HWB) aircraft with turboelectric distributed propulsion (TeDP), has been analyzed to see if it can meet the 70% fuel burn reduction goal of the NASA Subsonic Fixed Wing project for N+3 generation aircraft. The TeDP system utilizes superconducting electric generators, motors and transmission lines to allow the power producing and thrust producing portions of the system to be widely separated. It also allows a small number of large turboshaft engines to drive any number of propulsors. On the N3-X these new degrees of freedom were used to (1) place two large turboshaft engines driving generators in freestream conditions to maximize thermal efficiency and (2) to embed a broad continuous array of 15 motor driven propulsors on the upper surface of the aircraft near the trailing edge. That location maximizes the amount of the boundary layer ingested and thus maximizes propulsive efficiency. The Boeing B777-200LR flying 7500 nm (13890 km) with a cruise speed of Mach 0.84 and an 118100 lb payload was selected as the reference aircraft and mission for this study. In order to distinguish between improvements due to technology and aircraft configuration changes from those due to the propulsion configuration changes, an intermediate configuration was included in this study. In this configuration a pylon mounted, ultra high bypass (UHB) geared turbofan engine with identical propulsion technology was integrated into the same hybrid wing body airframe. That aircraft achieved a 52% reduction in mission fuel burn relative to the reference aircraft. The N3-X was able to achieve a reduction of 70% and 72% (depending on the cooling system) relative to the reference aircraft. The additional 18% - 20% reduction in the mission fuel burn can therefore be attributed to the additional degrees of freedom in the propulsion system configuration afforded by the TeDP system that eliminates nacelle and pylon drag, maximizes boundary layer ingestion (BLI) to reduce inlet drag on the propulsion system, and reduces the wake drag of the vehicle.

Felder, James L.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Static Aeroelastic and Longitudinal Trim Model of Flexible Wing Aircraft Using Finite-Element Vortex-Lattice Coupled Solution

This paper presents a static aeroelastic model and longitudinal trim model for the analysis of a flexible wing transport aircraft. The static aeroelastic model is built using a structural model based on finite-element modeling and coupled to an aerodynamic model that uses vortex-lattice solution. An automatic geometry generation tool is used to close the loop between the structural and aerodynamic models. The aeroelastic model is extended for the development of a three degree-of-freedom longitudinal trim model for an aircraft with flexible wings. The resulting flexible aircraft longitudinal trim model is used to simultaneously compute the static aeroelastic shape for the aircraft model and the longitudinal state inputs to maintain an aircraft trim state. The framework is applied to an aircraft model based on the NASA Generic Transport Model (GTM) with wing structures allowed to flexibly deformed referred to as the Elastically Shaped Aircraft Concept (ESAC). The ESAC wing mass and stiffness properties are based on a baseline "stiff" values representative of current generation transport aircraft.

Aeroelasticity↗
NASA NTRS2015

NASA's Aeroacoustic Tools and Methods for Analysis of Aircraft Noise

Aircraft community noise is a significant concern due to continued growth in air traffic, increasingly stringent environmental goals, and operational limitations imposed by airport authorities. The ability to quantify aircraft noise at the source and ultimately at observers is required to develop low noise aircraft designs and flight procedures. Predicting noise at the source, accounting for scattering and propagation through the atmosphere to the observer, and assessing the perception and impact on a community requires physics-based aeroacoustics tools. Along with the analyses for aero-performance, weights and fuel burn, these tools can provide the acoustic component for aircraft MDAO (Multidisciplinary Design Analysis and Optimization). Over the last decade significant progress has been made in advancing the aeroacoustic tools such that acoustic analyses can now be performed during the design process. One major and enabling advance has been the development of the system noise framework known as Aircraft NOise Prediction Program2 (ANOPP2). ANOPP2 is NASA's aeroacoustic toolset and is designed to facilitate the combination of acoustic approaches of varying fidelity for the analysis of noise from conventional and unconventional aircraft. The toolset includes a framework that integrates noise prediction and propagation methods into a unified system for use within general aircraft analysis software. This includes acoustic analyses, signal processing and interfaces that allow for the assessment of perception of noise on a community. ANOPP2's capability to incorporate medium fidelity shielding predictions and wind tunnel experiments into a design environment is presented. An assessment of noise from a conventional and Hybrid Wing Body (HWB) aircraft using medium fidelity scattering methods combined with noise measurements from a model-scale HWB recently placed in NASA's 14x22 wind tunnel are presented. The results are in the form of community noise metrics and auralizations.

Rizzi, Stephen A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Seat Capacity Selection for an Advanced Short-Haul Aircraft Design

A study was performed to determine the target seat capacity for a proposed advanced short-haul aircraft concept projected to enter the fleet by 2030. This analysis projected the potential demand in the U.S. for a short-haul aircraft using a transportation theory approach, rather than selecting a target seat capacity based on recent industry trends or current market demand. A transportation systems model was used to create a point-to-point network of short-haul trips and then predict the number of annual origin-destination trips on this network. Aircraft of varying seat capacities were used to meet the demand on this network, assuming a single aircraft type for the entire short-haul fleet. For each aircraft size, the ticket revenue and operational costs were used to calculate a total market profitability metric for all feasible flights. The different aircraft sizes were compared, based on this market profitability metric and also the total number of annual round trips and markets served. Sensitivity studies were also performed to determine the effect of changing the aircraft cruise speed and maximum trip length. Using this analysis, the advanced short-haul aircraft design team was able to select a target seat capacity for their design.

Marien, Ty V.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Aeroelastic Modeling of Elastically Shaped Aircraft Concept via Wing Shaping Control for Drag Reduction

Lightweight aircraft design has received a considerable attention in recent years as a means for improving cruise efficiency. Reducing aircraft weight results in lower lift requirements which directly translate into lower drag, hence reduced engine thrust requirements during cruise. The use of lightweight materials such as advanced composite materials has been adopted by airframe manufacturers in current and future aircraft. Modern lightweight materials can provide less structural rigidity while maintaining load-carrying capacity. As structural flexibility increases, aeroelastic interactions with aerodynamic forces and moments become an increasingly important consideration in aircraft design and aerodynamic performance. Furthermore, aeroelastic interactions with flight dynamics can result in issues with vehicle stability and control. Abstract This paper describes a recent aeroelastic modeling effort for an elastically shaped aircraft concept (ESAC). The aircraft model is based on the rigid-body generic transport model (GTM) originally developed at NASA Langley Research Center. The ESAC distinguishes itself from the GTM in that it is equipped with highly flexible wing structures as a weight reduction design feature. More significantly, the wings are outfitted with a novel control effector concept called variable camber continuous trailing edge (VCCTE) flap system for active control of wing aeroelastic deflections to optimize the local angle of attack of wing sections for improved aerodynamic efficiency through cruise drag reduction and lift enhancement during take-off and landing. The VCCTE flap is a multi-functional and aerodynamically efficient device capable of achieving high lift-to-drag ratios. The flap system is comprised of three chordwise segments that form the variable camber feature of the flap and multiple spanwise segments that form a piecewise continuous trailing edge. By configuring the flap camber and trailing edge shape, drag reduction could be achieved. Moreover, some parts of the flap system can be made to have a high frequency response for roll control, gust load alleviation, and aeroservoelastic (ASE) modal suppression control. Abstract The aeroelastic model of the ESAC is based on one-dimensional structural dynamic theory that captures the aeroelastic deformation of a wing structure in a combined motion that involves flapwise bending, chordwise bending, and torsion. The model includes the effect of aircraft propulsion due to wing flexibility which causes the propulsive forces and moments to couple with the wing elastic motion. Engine mass is also accounted in the model. A fuel management model is developed to describe the wing mass change due to fuel usage in the main tank and wing tanks during cruise. Abstract The model computes both static and dynamic responses of the wing structures. The static aeroelastic deflections are used to estimate the effect of wing flexibility on induced drag and the potential drag reduction by the VCCTE flap system. A flutter analysis is conducted to estimate the flutter speed boundary. Gust load alleviation via adaptive control has been recently investigated to address flexibility of aircraft structures. A multi-objective flight control approach is presented for drag reduction control. The approach is based on an optimal control framework using a multi-objective cost function. Future studies will demonstrate the potential benefits of the approach.

Aeroelasticity↗
NASA NTRS2017

Overview of NASA Electrified Aircraft Propulsion Research for Large Subsonic Transports

NASA is investing in Electrified Aircraft Propulsion (EAP) research as part of the portfolio to improve the fuel efficiency, emissions, and noise levels in commercial transport aircraft. Turboelectric, partially turboelectric, and hybrid electric propulsion systems are the primary EAP configurations being evaluated for regional jet and larger aircraft. The goal is to show that one or more viable EAP concepts exist for narrow body aircraft and mature tall-pole technologies related to those concepts. A summary of the aircraft system studies, technology development, and facility development is provided. The leading concept for mid-term (2035) introduction of EAP for a single aisle aircraft is a tube and wing, partially turbo electric configuration (STARC-ABL), however other viable configurations exist. Investments are being made to raise the TRL level of light weight, high efficiency motors, generators, and electrical power distribution systems as well as to define the optimal turbine and boundary layer ingestion systems for a mid-term tube and wing configuration. An electric aircraft power system test facility (NEAT) is under construction at NASA Glenn and an electric aircraft control system test facility (HEIST) is under construction at NASA Armstrong. The correct building blocks are in place to have a viable, large plane EAP configuration tested by 2025 leading to entry into service in 2035 if the community chooses to pursue that goal.

Jansen, Ralph H.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Health Monitoring and Prognostics for More Electric Aircrafts

As more and more electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in the prediction of remaining flying time/distance (for aircraft). This information is important, particularly in the case of unmanned vehicles, because such vehicles can become self-aware, autonomously compute its own capabilities, and identify how to best plan and successfully complete vehicular missions safely. In case of electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is also safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of battery charge while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operations of the vehicle. Given models of the current and future system behavior, the general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prior stated prediction problem.For electric aircraft, propulsion is based on power generated from batteries. Thus, it is critical to monitor battery state charge and to estimate the ability of the battery to support mission activities as it is being discharged during flight operation. The ability of the vehicle to complete its given mission very much depends on the charge left in the batteries based on its operational route, maneuvering, weather conditions along with aging health of the batteries. Hence, for the purpose this discussion, consider the scenario of an unmanned electric aircraft that has some planned sequence of waypoints to reach throughout its mission. In such a scenario, for this particular aircraft, and within the region it is flown, at most two minutes are required to safely land the aircraft. Thus, it is desired to predict at which point in time the aircraft must begin to head to the runway and land.

Goebel, Kai↗
NASA NTRS2018

An Overview of the Layered and Extensible Aircraft Performance System (LEAPS) Development

The Layered and Extensible Aircraft Performance System (LEAPS) is a new sizing and synthesis tool being developed within the Aeronautics Systems Analysis Branch (ASAB) at NASA Langley Research Center. It is a modular, multidisciplinary, multi- fidelity sizing and synthesis tool for modeling advanced aircraft concepts and architectures such as electric/hybrid-electric propulsion, unconventional propulsion airframe integration, and non-traditional mission trajectories. The development of LEAPS is motivated by the lack of existing tools that meet the needs of ASAB. The Flight Optimization System (FLOPS) has been the primary sizing and synthesis tool of ASAB for three decades. However, FLOPS has a number of limitations that make it dicult to use for unconventional aircraft designs. Three high-level goals have been adopted to guide the LEAPS development pro- cess. LEAPS is being developed in Python with an architecture built to enable a exible and extensible analysis capability using the concept of an aircraft object that combines data and analysis models. Five challenge problems for LEAPS have been identi ed to measure progress: analysis of a conventional tube-and-wing aircraft using legacy methods, coupled aeroelastic analysis for weight estimation of a conventional tube-and-wing aircraft, analysis of an advanced hybrid-electric concept, analysis of the X-57 Maxwell distributed electric propulsion aircraft, and optimization of the trajectory of a supersonic vehicle to minimize sonic boom. LEAPS will be a publicly available capability of exceptional quality with modularity and extensibility that makes it a robust tool for design and analysis of current and future unconventional aircraft concepts.

Welstead, Jason R.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Vehicle-Level System Impact of Boundary Layer Ingestion for the NASA D8 Concept Aircraft

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the vehicle-level impact of a boundary layer ingestion (BLI) propulsion system on a commercial transport aircraft concept. The NASA D8 (ND8) aircraft was chosen as the BLI concept aircraft to be studied. A power balance methodology developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology was adapted for use with the existing NASA sizing and performance tools to model the fuel consumption impact of BLI on the ND8. A key assumption for the BLI impact assessment was a 3.5% efficiency penalty associated with designing a fan for and operating in the distorted flow caused by BLI. The ND8 was compared to several other ND8-like aircraft that did not utilize BLI in order to determine the fuel consumption benefit attributable to BLI. Analytically “turning off” BLI on the ND8 without accounting for the physical requirements of redirecting the boundary layer or resizing the aircraft to meet the performance constraints resulted in a 2.8% increase in block fuel consumption to fly the design mission. When this non-physical aircraft was resized to meet the performance constraints, the block fuel consumption was 4.0% greater than the baseline ND8. The ND8 was also compared to an ND8-like aircraft with conventionally podded engines under the wing. This configuration had a 5.6% increase in block fuel consumption compared to the baseline ND8. This result is more reflective of the real world impact if BLI is not an available technology for the ND8 design. The BLI benefit results presented for this study should not be applied to other aircraft that have a propulsion-airframe integration design or BLI implementation different from the ND8.

Marien, Ty V.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Market Analysis of the Subsonic Single Aft Engine (SUSAN) Transport Aircraft Concept

This paper presents a detailed market analysis of the U.S. domestic aviation market in support of the NASA subsonic single aft engine (SUSAN) regional aircraft concept. The current scoping of the SUSAN concept is intended to compete in the medium to large (160-180 seats) narrow body market, with range capabilities of up to 2,500 nautical miles, and expected fuel burn reduction up to 40% relative to conventional 2 engine aircraft. Recent historical trends suggest growth in aviation passenger demand will continue to be met by the narrow body fleet of aircraft; however, a comprehensive review is required to understand how these current fleet trends could evolve in the future. Moreover, estimating and forecasting the potential market size is the critical first step when developing a new aircraft concept to determine commercial viability. To assist in the trade space exploration of the SUSAN concept, a generalized traffic and fleet forecast of the U.S. aviation market is conducted. Using publicly available aviation data from the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics and passenger demand forecasts from FAA, a multinomial logit model is estimated to predict the composition of the future fleet by aircraft size. These fleet forecasts are then used as inputs for a fleet evolution model to provide required operational forecasts at the aircraft specific level. Forecast scenarios with and without the SUSAN concept are compared, and a breakeven analysis is performed to evaluate the commercial viability of the SUSAN aircraft from an operating cost perspective. Results from the multinomial logit fleet forecast indicate the narrow body size category of 150+ seats dominating the market, comprising 87% of the future revenue passenger miles market share in 2050 (up from 60% in 2019). Forecast scenarios with the SUSAN concept see a maximum cumulative decline in fuel cost of 20% by 2050, while a breakeven analysis shows competitive advantage of the SUSAN aircraft, due to expected fuel burn reduction, at moderate levels of increased maintenance and capital costs.

Jacob M. Wishart↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Traffic Prediction for Uncommunicative Aircraft in Terminal Airspace: Development Framework and Performance Evaluations

This paper presents an air traffic prediction algorithm that takes observations of an aircraft and classifies aircraft type, estimates the aircraft's intent to and method of joining an airport traffic pattern, and predicts the aircaft's future trajectory. To develop algorithms that enable autonomous aircraft to safely insert into un-towered traffic patterns, several challenges need to be addressed. These challenges range from traffic detection to sensor fusion to own-ship trajectory replanning. Critical to a trajectory replanning algorithm is information regarding the future behavior of all traffic aircraft in the operational environment. The presented traffic prediction algorithm generates this information using regular measurements of traffic aircraft position and velocity to classify the aircraft by speed-class, estimate how the aircraft will approach the runway, and construct a predicted trajectory to the runway including future positions and velocities at specific times. The predictions of the presented algorithm are the necessary inputs for any downstream traffic pattern sequencing and own-ship trajectory planning routines. The presented algorithm is benchmarked using approximately 300 randomized traffic trajectories, spanning four vehicle weight classes and eight traffic entry types. While the algorithm can process multiple traffic vehicles in the terminal area, there is no prediction of traffic-on-traffic interaction. Each traffic vehicle is processed separately.

John D McMinn↗
NASA NTRS2017

Trajectory Optimization of Electric Aircraft Subject to Subsystem Thermal Constraints

Electric aircraft pose a unique design challenge in that they lack a simple way to reject waste heat from the power train. While conventional aircraft reject most of their excess heat in the exhaust stream, for electric aircraft this is not an option. To examine the implications of this challenge on electric aircraft design and performance, we developed a model of the electric subsystems for the NASA X-57 electric testbed aircraft. We then coupled this model with a model of simple 2D aircraft dynamics and used a Legendre-Gauss-Lobatto collocation optimal control approach to find optimal trajectories for the aircraft with and without thermal constraints. The results show that the X-57 heat rejection systems are well designed for maximum-range and maximum-efficiency flight, without the need to deviate from an optimal trajectory. Stressing the thermal constraints by reducing the cooling capacity or requiring faster flight has a minimal impact on performance, as the trajectory optimization technique is able to find flight paths which honor the thermal constraints with relatively minor deviations from the nominal optimal trajectory.

electric propulsion↗