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NASA NTRS2002

Risk-Based Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment

In an era of shrinking development budgets and resources, where there is also an emphasis on reducing the product development cycle, the role of system assessment, performed in the early stages of an engine development program, becomes very critical to the successful development of new aeropropulsion systems. A reliable system assessment not only helps to identify the best propulsion system concept among several candidates, it can also identify which technologies are worth pursuing. This is particularly important for advanced aeropropulsion technology development programs, which require an enormous amount of resources. In the current practice of deterministic, or point-design, approaches, the uncertainties of design variables are either unaccounted for or accounted for by safety factors. This could often result in an assessment with unknown and unquantifiable reliability. Consequently, it would fail to provide additional insight into the risks associated with the new technologies, which are often needed by decision makers to determine the feasibility and return-on-investment of a new aircraft engine. In this work, an alternative approach based on the probabilistic method was described for a comprehensive assessment of an aeropropulsion system. The statistical approach quantifies the design uncertainties inherent in a new aeropropulsion system and their influences on engine performance. Because of this, it enhances the reliability of a system assessment. A technical assessment of a wave-rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine was performed to demonstrate the methodology. The assessment used probability distributions to account for the uncertainties that occur in component efficiencies and flows and in mechanical design variables. The approach taken in this effort was to integrate the thermodynamic cycle analysis embedded in the computer code NEPP (NASA Engine Performance Program) and the engine weight analysis embedded in the computer code WATE (Weight Analysis of Turbine Engines) with the fast probability integration technique (FPI). FPI was developed by Southwest Research Institute under contract with the NASA Glenn Research Center. The results were plotted in the form of cumulative distribution functions and sensitivity analyses and were compared with results from the traditional deterministic approach. The comparison showed that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess an aeropropulsion system. The current work addressed the application of the probabilistic approach to assess specific fuel consumption, engine thrust, and weight. Similarly, the approach can be used to assess other aspects of aeropropulsion system performance, such as cost, acoustic noise, and emissions. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Tong, Michael T.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Configuration Management Process Assessment Strategy

Purpose: To propose a strategy for assessing the development and effectiveness of configuration management systems within Programs, Projects, and Design Activities performed by technical organizations and their supporting development contractors. Scope: Various entities CM Systems will be assessed dependent on Project Scope (DDT&E), Support Services and Acquisition Agreements. Approach: Model based structured against assessing organizations CM requirements including best practices maturity criteria. The model is tailored to the entity being assessed dependent on their CM system. The assessment approach provides objective feedback to Engineering and Project Management of the observed CM system maturity state versus the ideal state of the configuration management processes and outcomes(system). center dot Identifies strengths and risks versus audit gotcha's (findings/observations). center dot Used "recursively and iteratively" throughout program lifecycle at select points of need. (Typical assessments timing is Post PDR/Post CDR) center dot Ideal state criteria and maturity targets are reviewed with the assessed entity prior to an assessment (Tailoring) and is dependent on the assessed phase of the CM system. center dot Supports exit success criteria for Preliminary and Critical Design Reviews. center dot Gives a comprehensive CM system assessment which ultimately supports configuration verification activities.*

Henry, Thad↗

NASA NTRS2014

Communications Technology Assessment for the Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Control and Non-Payload Communications (CNPC) Link

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Glenn Research Center (GRC) is performing communications systems research for the Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) in the National Airspace System (NAS) Project. One of the goals of the communications element is to select and test a communications technology for the UAS Control and Non-Payload Communications (CNPC) link. The GRC UAS Modeling and Simulation (M/S) Sub Team will evaluate the performance of several potential technologies for the CNPC link through detailed software simulations. In parallel, an industry partner will implement a technology in hardware to be used for flight testing. The task necessitated a technical assessment of existing Radio Frequency (RF) communications technologies to identify the best candidate systems for use as the UAS CNPC link. The assessment provides a basis for selecting the technologies for the M/S effort and the hardware radio design. The process developed for the technical assessments for the Future Communications Study1 (FCS) was used as an initial starting point for this assessment. The FCS is a joint Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and Eurocontrol study on technologies for use as a future aeronautical communications link. The FCS technology assessment process methodology can be applied to the UAS CNPC link; however the findings of the FCS are not directly applicable because of different requirements between a CNPC link and a general aeronautical data link. Additional technologies were added to the potential technologies list from the State of the Art Unmanned Aircraft System Communication Assessment developed by NASA GRC2. This document investigates the state of the art of communications as related to UAS. A portion of the document examines potential communications systems for a UAS communication architecture. Like the FCS, the state of the art assessment surveyed existing communications technologies. It did not, however, perform a detailed assessment of the technology necessary to recommend a technology for the UAS CNPC link. The technical assessment process, as shown in Figure 1, consists of the following steps. First, candidate RF communications technologies are identified. An initial review of each of these technologies is then performed to determine if the technology appears to be a good candidate and requires further review. Any technology that can be shown to be inadequate at that point is removed from consideration to allow for more detailed analysis of the remaining technologies. Criteria for the detailed assessments are defined and a scoring methodology is devised. This is followed by the detailed review and scoring of each technology. The least favorable technologies are removed during the process until only the few best candidates remain.

Aircraft Command and Control↗

NASA NTRS2015

The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

models↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development and Validation of Sensorimotor Assessment Tasks Using Spaceflight Analogs

INTRODUCTION Exploration class missions will require a new level of crew autonomy to self-assess and treat their sensorimotor dysfunction around periods of gravitational transition, where sensorimotor disturbances are at their highest. There is a need to define sensorimotor assessment thresholds that indicate when performance in early extravehicular activities (EVAs) might be impacted or unsafe. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a set of assessment tasks using sensorimotor spaceflight analogs including the Sensorimotor Disorientation Analog (SDA) and +3G x sustained centrifugation. METHODS For the SDA, forty-one healthy non-astronaut subjects (21 males, 20 females; Mean ± SD, Age: 34.0 ± 7.8 years) volunteered to participate in this study. Subjects attended two testing sessions: 1) familiarization to the tasks and baseline data collection, and 2) tasks completed under two levels of sensorimotor disorientation. Subjects performed a series of seven sensorimotor assessment tasks followed by two operationally relevant EVA analog tasks. The sensorimotor assessments tasks, ordered from least to most provocative of the sensorimotor system, included: postural stability, step test, prone/supine recovery from fall (RFF), four-square-step-test, obstacle negotiation with turns (OTT), kneel-and-reach, and augmented reality full-body coordination. The operational analog tasks included a top-hatch capsule egress and a 5-minute EVA traversal. Disorientation was applied via the SDA which utilized galvanic vestibular stimulation and weighted trunk, wrists, and ankles to target the vestibular and proprioceptive systems such that performance while wearing the SDA mimicked astronaut postflight performance at R+0 and R+1. Sixteen healthy non-astronaut subjects (10 males, 6 females; Age: 35.0 ± 9.5 years) completed +3G x 60-minute sustained centrifugation as an established spaceflight analog replicating the vestibular disruptions seen postflight. Subjects completed a pre-session which included familiarization to the tasks and a 5-minute centrifuge spin. The data collection session included, in order, a baseline data collection, 60-minute centrifuge spin, immediate post-centrifuge data collection, 45-minute seated recovery, and a final data collection. The same assessment and operational analog tasks were conducted as described above. RESULTS Pearsons’ correlation r-values were calculated between assessment and operational analog tasks. The two assessment tasks with the strongest correlations to the operational analog tasks were the RFF (SDA: r≥ 0.57, Centrifuge: r ≥0.55) and OTT (SDA: r≥ 0.66, Centrifuge: r ≥ 0.49). For brevity, repeated measures ANOVA with follow-up paired t-tests are discussed for these two assessment tasks. The SDA found significant differences between all three levels of disorientation for both RFF and OTT (p < 0.001). Significant differences were also found between baseline and immediate post centrifuge testing for both the RFF (p≤ 0.011) and OTT (p = 0.001). Additional results are forthcoming for both disorientation paradigms. DISCUSSION These validation studies provide evidence for down-selection of the assessment tasks that were able to distinguish between levels of sensorimotor disorientation and correlate to performance in operationally relevant tasks for use in upcoming Artemis missions.

S C Moudy↗

DOE OSTI2022

The current state of the industrial energy assessment and its impacts on the manufacturing industry

Energy-intensive manufacturing is the greatest contributor to the U.S. industrial energy consumption today. Globally, manufacturing facilities are being directed to reduce their energy consumption to prepare for a sustainable future. Industrial energy assessment plays a crucial role in helping facilities meet their energy efficiency goals by encouraging the implementation of cost-effective, energy-saving recommendations to the existing equipment and processes. Across the world, programs such as the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored Industrial Assessment Centers (IACs) (operational across several states in the U.S. for over four decades), are transforming the future of industrial energy consumption by offering free industrial energy assessments to qualifying facilities. In this review paper, the industrial energy assessment approach and practices are comprehensively reviewed with focus on popular recommendations, procedures, and the current practices of the industrial energy assessment program. Specifically, opportunities for improvement in the most energy-intensive manufacturing processes are examined, concentrating on the energy savings and other non-energy benefits of each of these measures, such as cost savings and emissions reduction. Furthermore, this paper also reviews how these energy-saving opportunities are procedurally evaluated and how factors, such as level and cost of assessments, and assessment metrics, are currently defining industrial energy assessment. In final considerations, existing research on energy management, decarbonization through electrification, and renewable energy in industry is reviewed and discussed, and how these advancements will shape the future of industrial energy assessment is addressed through forward-looking lenses.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dashboard for Marine Energy Site Assessment and Monitoring

The marine energy (ME) industry presently relies upon fragmented site assessment solutions that require high resource expenditure for deployment at each site and do not leverage the wealth of readily available tools and information. A wave energy resource assessment dashboard, currently in development, will substantially improve siting, permitting, operations, and maintenance of ME projects by providing an integrated solution that is a one-stop-shop for a developer’s needs. The Site Energy Assessment and MOnitoring Dashboard (SEAMOD) will be of commercial interest to anyone seeking to deploy an ME project and is easily expandable to include tidal and wind energy site assessments. The integrated dashboard is being developed using state-of-the-art database and cloud computing methods and data-assimilative modeling tools that can be coupled with low-cost, rapidly deployable wave buoys and environmental sensing hardware. The combined software and hardware dashboard will reduce wave energy site characterization and wave climate monitoring costs by more than 60 percent and provide assessments that meet international industry standards. To realize a thriving global ME industry, the physical environment at a potential deployment site must be understood, not only for resource characterization, but also for optimization of device and power conversion performance. SEAMOD directly addresses these needs with a commercially marketable product. SEAMOD is a low-cost solution that provides comprehensive ME resource assessments, baseline environmental monitoring, and offshore characterizations required for successful ME development. The key technical objectives for Phase I were a series of software development goals, which when implemented with monitoring solutions, produced an initial proof-of-concept low-cost wave energy resources dashboard. In Phase II, the development of the prototype SEAMOD continued. The basic framework employed was the development of a revised dashboard and monitoring tool customized for ME applications by focusing on IEC site assessment and method requirements. Development was focused on the integration of full hindcast metocean products to provide hindcast resource characterization and environmental information. The final integrated dashboard provides a low-cost solution that delivers comprehensive, scalable, industry-standard energy resource assessments and offshore characterizations required for successful ME development. The integrated dashboard offers visibility of the most recent site modeling, measurements, and historical data. The application and integration of consensus-based standards for wave energy resource assessment, as determined by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), are crucial for the impact and value of SEAMOD. SEAMOD includes monthly, seasonal, and yearly statistics, as well as the total 30-year record, offering temporal resolution of the IEC parameters to aid potential developers in determining the available wave energy resources in their area of interest.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Guide for Improved Resource Adequacy Assessments in Evolving Power Systems: Institutional and Technical Dimensions

This paper identifies and evaluates issues in traditional resource adequacy (RA) assessment practices, and how adjusting these practices may affect and depend on existing institutional arrangements for planning and procurement. The paper proposes a technical-institutional roadmap that would allow regulators in vertically-integrated jurisdictions and system planners and operators in restructured jurisdictions to revise RA practices across a range of components. First, we compile a critical review of current RA assessment practices based on (1) interviews with RA practitioners and (2) a review of recent technical literature. We find that (i) RA may need to expand beyond capacity adequacy to ensure energy adequacy – relevant for energy-limited resources such as storage – and potentially some form of ancillary service adequacy (e.g. enough ramping-up and ramping-down capability in the system); (ii) chronological hourly simulations for all hours in the year are the current best practice; (iii) metrics and models used do not reflect economic criteria in system operation and loss of load; and (iv) there is a need to improve representation of weather dependencies and weather data. Second, we review planning and RA reports for several private and public entities that plan generation and/or transmission infrastructure in the continental U.S. to look for existing practices involving resilience assessments. We find no systematic treatment of the costs of extreme weather and other hazards, the benefits of resilience, and resilience metrics in planning analyses and no systematic treatment of resilience metrics, methods, and outcomes for resource adequacy purposes. Third, we create a technical framework for probabilistic RA assessment and use it to study how key choices about how to model power system operations affect the values that are obtained for RA metrics. We find that (i) non-economic dispatch schemes that ignore economic objectives can lead to accurate RA assessments when coordinated with detailed operational strategies; (ii) multi-year data is critical to capture a wide variety of system conditions; (iii) not incorporating transmission limits into RA assessment could lead to substantial underestimation of traditional “expected value” RA metrics; and (iv) new RA metrics that capture event-specific shortfall characteristics should be used as supplements to traditional metrics. Finally, we examine RA assessments and use this information to propose a guide of evolving industry standards for resource adequacy assessments in resource planning and transmission planning. We report minimum, best, and frontier practices for temporal resolution of assessments, metrics and targets, weather data, load forecasting, characterization of variable renewable resources, characterization of transmission and market transactions, RA modeling and integration with planning processes, and capacity accreditation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2008

Lunar Surface Habitat Configuration Assessment: Methodology and Observations

The Lunar Habitat Configuration Assessment evaluated the major habitat approaches that were conceptually developed during the Lunar Architecture Team II Study. The objective of the configuration assessment was to identify desired features, operational considerations, and risks to derive habitat requirements. This assessment only considered operations pertaining to the lunar surface and did not consider all habitat conceptual designs developed. To examine multiple architectures, the Habitation Focus Element Team defined several adequate concepts which warranted the need for a method to assess the various configurations. The fundamental requirement designed into each concept included the functional and operational capability to support a crew of four on a six-month lunar surface mission; however, other conceptual aspects were diverse in comparison. The methodology utilized for this assessment consisted of defining figure of merits, providing relevant information, and establishing a scoring system. In summary, the assessment considered the geometric configuration of each concept to determine the complexity of unloading, handling, mobility, leveling, aligning, mating to other elements, and the accessibility to the lunar surface. In theory, the assessment was designed to derive habitat requirements, potential technology development needs and identify risks associated with living and working on the lunar surface. Although the results were more subjective opposed to objective, the assessment provided insightful observations for further assessments and trade studies of lunar surface habitats. This overall methodology and resulting observations will be describe in detail and illustrative examples will be discussed.

Carpenter, Amanda↗

NASA NTRS2011

Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners (Second Edition)

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in complex technological systems for the purpose of cost-effectively improving their safety and performance. NASA's objective is to better understand and effectively manage risk, and thus more effectively ensure mission and programmatic success, and to achieve and maintain high safety standards at NASA. NASA intends to use risk assessment in its programs and projects to support optimal management decision making for the improvement of safety and program performance. In addition to using quantitative/probabilistic risk assessment to improve safety and enhance the safety decision process, NASA has incorporated quantitative risk assessment into its system safety assessment process, which until now has relied primarily on a qualitative representation of risk. Also, NASA has recently adopted the Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) process [1-1] as a valuable addition to supplement existing deterministic and experience-based engineering methods and tools. Over the years, NASA has been a leader in most of the technologies it has employed in its programs. One would think that PRA should be no exception. In fact, it would be natural for NASA to be a leader in PRA because, as a technology pioneer, NASA uses risk assessment and management implicitly or explicitly on a daily basis. NASA has probabilistic safety requirements (thresholds and goals) for crew transportation system missions to the International Space Station (ISS) [1-2]. NASA intends to have probabilistic requirements for any new human spaceflight transportation system acquisition. Methods to perform risk and reliability assessment in the early 1960s originated in U.S. aerospace and missile programs. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an example. It would have been a reasonable extrapolation to expect that NASA would also become the world leader in the application of PRA. That was, however, not to happen. Early in the Apollo program, estimates of the probability for a successful roundtrip human mission to the moon yielded disappointingly low (and suspect) values and NASA became discouraged from further performing quantitative risk analyses until some two decades later when the methods were more refined, rigorous, and repeatable. Instead, NASA decided to rely primarily on the Hazard Analysis (HA) and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) methods for system safety assessment.

Stamatelatos,Michael↗

NASA NTRS2016

Enabling Research Tools for Sustained Climate Assessment

The U.S. Global Change Research Program Sustained Assessment process benefits from long-term investments in Earth science research that enable the scientific community to conduct assessment-relevant science. To this end, NASA initiated several research programs over the past five years to support the Earth observation community in developing indicators, datasets, research products, and tools to support ongoing and future National Climate Assessments. These activities complement NASA's ongoing Earth science research programs. One aspect of the assessment portfolio funds four "enabling tools" projects at NASA research centers. Each tool leverages existing capacity within the center, but has developed tailored applications and products for National Climate Assessments. The four projects build on the capabilities of a global atmospheric reanalysis (MERRA-2), a continental U.S. land surface reanalysis (NCA-LDAS), the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX), and a Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES). Here, we provide a brief overview of each enabling tool, highlighting the ways in which it has advanced assessment science to date. We also discuss how the assessment community can access and utilize these tools for National Climate Assessments and other sustained assessment activities.

Research↗

NASA NTRS2021

Normalization Method and Application for MODIS TEB Assessments using Earth Scene Measurements

Selected Earth targets are commonly used for satellite sensor calibration assessments (e.g. sensor stability and inter-comparisons). Moreover, typical scenes used for the calibration assessment of the thermal emissive bands (TEBs) includeDome Concordia (Dome-C), ocean, desert, and deep convective clouds (DCC). Reference data used for these calibration assessments can come from another band, another instrument, or ground measurements. The Dome-C site, covered with uniformly-distributed permanent snow, is normally used for the assessment of the TEBsat cold temperatures. Furthermore, ocean and desert measurements prove useful for scenes with higher temperatures. The DCC, one of the most consistent and coldest targets, can be used for the TEBs calibration and product stability assessments. MODIS band 31 (~ 11 m) can be used as a reference for these scenes. However, measurements over these scenes have seasonal variations, and the DCC brightness temperatures (BTs) have asymmetrical distributions. These features can introduce additional uncertainty to the stability assessments. A normalization method is applied by using an empirical model to derive reference-dependent BTs. Using the developed empirical model, measurements can be normalized to a reference BT in order to enhance the calibration assessment’s accuracy. This method is evaluated using all four scene types (i.e. ocean, desert, snow (Dome-C), and DCC) and applied to all the Terra and Aqua MODIS TEBs. Stability assessments over the instruments’ entire data records are presented and discussed. The technique can be applied in future efforts to support MODIS TEBs calibration assessments.

MODIS TEB↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating The Relationships Between Supine Propriorception Assessments with Upright Functional Mobility and Balance Tests

INTRODUCTION Upon return to Earth, spaceflight sensorimotor adaptations can result in impaired posture and locomotion [1], [2], and current exercise countermeasures in the International Space Station are not sufficient to maintain sensorimotor function. In-flight countermeasures and assessment tools for sensorimotor function are needed to mitigate risks associated with mission-critical task performance upon return to Earth or arrival to 0.38 G on Mars. One proposed countermeasure for proprioceptive deconditioning includes training on a tilt board device [3], which will be tested in an upcoming bed rest study. In preparation for the said study, the objective of this pilot study is to compare performance in supine proprioceptive assessments to performance in functional upright activities. The results are intended to guide the selection of supine assessment tools for the upcoming bedrest study and the development of future inflight proprioceptive training and assessment tools for exploration missions. METHODS Seventeen healthy participants (8 males and 9 females, 27.9 ± 8.5 years) provided informed consent as approved by the Institutional Review Board (IRB) at NASA. A horizontal air-bearing sled was used to provide a proprioceptive challenge in a supine body orientation, allowing for mediolateral motion with minimal friction during supine stance [4]. Participants were loaded axially (30 to 60% body weight) with their feet on a vertically oriented tilt board and instructed to perform supine assessment activities using custom software that displays a cursor controlled by tilting the tilt board. In a single-leg static activity on the tilt board (TB-St), performance was measured as the percent time spent on a center target during a 30-second trial. During a two-feet dynamic activity on the tilt board (TB-Dy), performance was measured as the number of targets captured in 30 seconds. These supine tasks were compared to performance during two upright activities used to represent upright performance: completion time for a functional mobility task (FMT) [2],[5] and a performance score from force plate sway data during 30-second single-leg upright standing (USL). RESULTS AND DISCUSSION A Spearman's rank-order correlation was run to assess the relationship between upright and supine assessments. There were statistically significant, strong correlations between scores for the FMT and each TB activity, including TB-St, rs(17) = 0.50, p<0.05, TB-Dy3, rs(17) = 0.73, p<0.001, and TB-Dy9, rs(15) = 0.53, p<0.05. There were no statistically significant correlations between USL and each TB activity. Despite a lack of correlation with upright single-leg balance, the ability of the TB to indicate upright performance in the FMT is promising, as this task is a standard post-flight measure designed to characterize locomotor dysfunction [2], [5]. CONCLUSION These efforts will inform the selection of an appropriate sensorimotor assessment method for the upcoming bed rest study and similar future studies. While current work uses a bed rest analog to develop these technologies, future work aims to prepare capabilities for future in-flight sensorimotor training and assessment to mitigate the risks of proprioception impairment after spaceflight. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was supported by the University Space Research Association Internship Program. REFERENCES [1] Mulavara A.P. et al (2018) Med Sci Sports Exerc, 50(9), 1961-1980. [2] Mulavara A.P. et al (2010) Exp Brain Res, 202(3), 649-659. [3] Macaulay T.R. et al (2021) Front. Syst. Neurosci., 15, 658-985. [4] Goel R. et al (2017) Front. Syst. Neurosci, 11. [5] Koppelmans V. et al (2013) BMC Neurology, 12.

R Bellisle↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Scenario-Based Approach to Assess Continuity Gaps in Earth Observations

Decision analysis processes outlined in systems engineering references, such as the Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge [1] or the NASA Systems Engineering Handbook [2], recommend following a series of steps to support decision-making for engineering applications. These steps are consistent across the literature and typically involve defining objectives, defining relevant criteria against which candidate alternatives can be assessed, selecting an evaluation method, assessing alternatives, and making a recommendation based on this assessment. These approaches are well-suited to assess systems for which sets of common objectives and constraints can be identified. A vast body of literature describes their application to numerous engineering problems, and many methods have been developed since the middle of the 20th century to support the assessment of candidate alternatives for such systems [3, 4, 5, 6]. These approaches, however, show some limitations when decisions pertain to systems of systems. These collections of individual systems typically do not share a common set of objectives and constraints, tend to be highly complex, and the definition of assessable, high-value candidate alternatives poses a challenge due to interdependencies. The formulation, development, operation, and funding of Earth observing missions are such that gaps may occur between missions, therefore impacting the continuity of measurements. These Earth observing mission architectures constitute systems of systems for which a common set of objectives and constraints can be challenging to define. When tasked with assessing gaps that may occur for a series of spaceborne missions that address similar science parameters, the authors therefore proposed to depart from the traditional objective- and criteria-based approach and instead adopted a scenario-based approach. This approach does not require a prioritized set of common objectives; rather, it assesses the impact of possible decisions on the system-of-systems and characterizes its possible future states. It also offers the flexibility to adjust assumptions, update inputs, and refine supporting models over time, while enabling the rapid, early identification of challenges and key decision points. By simulating the impact of potential decisions on the entirety of the system-of-systems, the approach enables the synchronization of multiple decisions that typically occur at the level of the individual system. This paper provides an overview of the approach that was developed to assess continuity gaps for a series of operational and planned spaceborne Earth observing missions, a description of its application to the problem at hand, and a discussion of currently known limitations.

scenario earth observations continuity gaps↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Scenario-Based Approach to Assess Continuity Gaps in Earth Observations

scenario earth observations continuity gaps↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Communication and Social Science in the Satellite Needs Working Group (SNWG) Assessment

Every two years, NASA conducts an in-depth assessment of the satellite Earth observation data needs of U.S. federal civilian agencies submitted through the Satellite Needs Working Group (SNWG) survey. The SNWG assessment occurs at the nexus of science and people: in the 2022 assessment, over 100 scientists across NASA, NOAA, and USGS were organized to interview over 165 end users at 29 agencies about their unique satellite needs, brainstorm a range of solutions to meet those needs, and communicate back to agencies about resources available for meeting their needs. The innovative approaches to communication, organization, and team make-up that will be described in this talk are vital to the success of the SNWG assessment. As the first major step in evaluating a satellite need, the tri-agency assessment team interviews the agency SMEs who submitted the survey to understand how satellite data could help inform their decision-making process or enable them to fulfill their key responsibilities. In preparation, NASA utilizes social scientists to provide training to all assessment participants on how to hold a discovery-centered interview, including starting with a purpose, creating a welcoming space, exploring all aspects and edges of the need, and brainstorming possible solutions to meet the need. After the interviews, assessment participants propose and review solutions across all thematic areas, seeking those that will help multiple agencies. During the selection process, agencies expected to benefit from a new solution have an opportunity to provide feedback on the proposed activity and are invited to co-design the solution with NASA, should it be implemented. The organization of needs and solutions takes place in Asana, a workflow management tool adapted for the SNWG assessment, and the Report Generation Tool (RGT) enables assessment teams to collaboratively write reports that are returned to each agency with information on current and upcoming resources that help meet their needs.

Katrina Virts↗

DOE OSTI2022

Syracuse University Industrial Assessment Center (Final Report)

Syracuse University Industrial Assessment Center (SU-IAC) project is focused on the two primary objectives: (i) educate undergraduate and graduate students in engineering and associated disciplines on the concepts of energy sustainability and to provide hands-on training by performing energy assessment at industrial facilities to become future energy efficiency experts, and (ii) offer energy assessments to small and mid-sized manufacturing companies in SU-IAC 2 the greater New York State region, perform analytical engineering work in support of assessment recommendations, and to report the results of those analyses to the client companies, to DOE, and to Field office personnel Through this project period, SU-IAC successfully trained 77 engineering students who were undergraduate or graduate students at Syracuse University College of Engineering, or at SU- IAC’s satellite center at Clarkson University. Each of these students received comprehensive ‘in-class’ technical training, safety training, and hands-on field training. The students performed various tasks related to energy assessment at the manufacturing facilities, including billing analysis, energy use reduction recommendations, and report preparation. Through this project period, a total of 34 students have completed all requirements of the SU-IAC program and have received the US DoE Certificate on Energy Efficiency, with the remaining students continuing at various stages of field work or training. During this project period, due to Covid-related measures in New York State, Syracuse University campus and most of the manufacturing facilities were completely closed or were under severe restrictions for access, for an extended period from March 2020 through April 2021. The closures affected our project execution, with the project Sponsor offering structured relief to carry-out a modified project during the affected budget periods. During this project period, SU-IAC student teams, led by its Director, completed a total of 77 energy assessments at small- and medium-scale manufacturing facilities located in New York State. For these facilities, SU-IAC prepared and presented details for 569 assessment recommendations (ARs). The facilities implemented a total of 258 of these ARs, realizing annual average energy savings in the range of $\$ $3,300 to $\$ $55,000 per facility. Cumulatively, these facilities have reduced their “first year after implementation” energy use by a total of 4.37 million kwh, and fuel use by a total of 27.7 billion BTU. SU-IAC project has successfully met the two primary objectives (and the associated sub objectives) and helped the manufacturing facilities in New York State achieve quantitative energy use reductions as a result of this project.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

GeoRePORT Protocol Volume VI: Resource Size Assessment Tool

GeoRePORT is based on the concept that a geothermal system can be described both in terms of the quality of the geothermal resource as it relates to the potential to extract heat ("Resource Grade") and the progress of research and development over the lifetime of the project ("Project Progress"). Resource grade and project progress are reported for three assessment categories: geologic, technical, and socio-economic. Each category has specific criteria and guidelines for assessing both resource grade and project progress, as outlined in each of the following assessment tools (and associated colors): (1) Geological Assessment Tool (representative colors: reds, oranges, browns); (2) Technical Assessment Tool (representative colors: blues, purples); (3) Socio-Economic Assessment Tool (representative colors: greens, yellows). Additionally, users may need to estimate the project size (often reported in MWe or MWth). The resource size assessment tool (RSAT) is an essential addition to GeoRePORT due to the economic and legal context of geothermal development. In order to utilize a geothermal resource, a competitive Power Purchase Agreement (PPA), or similar, often must be obtained, for which the resource's power capacity must be demonstrated. To determine that a geothermal heat or power project is worthy of development, investors or other funding mechanisms often require information on the anticipated heat and/or power potential of the reservoir. They might also be interested in the certainty of that estimate. However, proving the existence and size of a geothermal resource is comparatively expensive and risky relative to other renewable technologies; it can cost developers 5 to 10 million USD to demonstrate a financially viable geothermal resource (Young et al. 2017). GeoRePORT aims to address this barrier to development by providing a consistent and clear assessment of resource quality and certainty. The RSAT will enable GeoRePORT users to not only qualitatively report on a given a resource, but also to compare standard methodologies for quantitatively estimating a resource size in terms of potential heat and/or power output.

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