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Results for “Bayesian experiment”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Discrete-Direct Model Calibration and Uncertainty Propagation Method Confirmed on Multi-Parameter Plasticity Model Calibrated to Sparse Random Field Data

A discrete direct (DD) model calibration and uncertainty propagation approach is explained and demonstrated on a 4-parameter Johnson-Cook (J-C) strain-rate dependent material strength model for an aluminum alloy. The methodology's performance is characterized in many trials involving four random realizations of strain-rate dependent material-test data curves per trial, drawn from a large synthetic population. The J-C model is calibrated to particular combinations of the data curves to obtain calibration parameter sets which are then propagated to “Can Crush” structural model predictions to produce samples of predicted response variability. These are processed with appropriate sparse-sample uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to estimate various statistics of response with an appropriate level of conservatism. This is tested on 16 output quantities (von Mises stresses and equivalent plastic strains) and it is shown that important statistics of the true variabilities of the 16 quantities are bounded with a high success rate that is reasonably predictable and controllable. The DD approach has several advantages over other calibration-UQ approaches like Bayesian inference for capturing and utilizing the information obtained from typically small numbers of replicate experiments in model calibration situations—especially when sparse replicate functional data are involved like force–displacement curves from material tests. The DD methodology is straightforward and efficient for calibration and propagation problems involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in calibration experiments, models, and procedures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inference, Prediction, & Entropy-Rate Estimation of Continuous-Time, Discrete-Event Processes

Inferring models, predicting the future, and estimating the entropy rate of discrete-time, discrete-event processes is well-worn ground. However, a much broader class of discrete-event processes operates in continuous-time. Here, we provide new methods for inferring, predicting, and estimating them. The methods rely on an extension of Bayesian structural inference that takes advantage of neural network’s universal approximation power. Based on experiments with complex synthetic data, the methods are competitive with the state-of-the-art for prediction and entropy-rate estimation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Beyond the proton drip line: Bayesian analysis of proton-emitting nuclei

The limits of the nuclear landscape are determined by nuclear binding energies. Beyond the proton drip lines, where the separation energy becomes negative, there is not enough binding energy to prevent protons from escaping the nucleus. Predicting properties of unstable nuclear states in the vast territory of proton emitters poses an appreciable challenge for nuclear theory as it often involves far extrapolations. In addition, significant discrepancies between nuclear models in the proton-rich territory call for quantified predictions. With the help of Bayesian methodology, we mix a family of nuclear mass models corrected with statistical emulators trained on the experimental mass measurements, in the proton-rich region of the nuclear chart. Separation energies were computed within nuclear density functional theory using several Skyrme and Gogny energy density functionals. We also considered mass predictions based on two models used in astrophysical studies. Quantified predictions were obtained for each model using Bayesian Gaussian processes trained on separation-energy residuals and combined via Bayesian model averaging. Here, we obtained a good agreement between averaged predictions of statistically corrected models and experiment. In particular, we quantified model results for one- and two-proton separation energies and derived probabilities of proton emission. This information enabled us to produce a quantified landscape of proton-rich nuclei. The most promising candidates for two-proton decay studies have been identified. Finally, the methodology used in this work has broad applications to model-based extrapolations of various nuclear observables. It also provides a reliable uncertainty quantification of theoretical predictions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Bayesian approach to time-domain photonic Doppler velocimetry analysis

Photonic Doppler velocimetry (PDV) is an established technique for measuring the velocities of fast-moving surfaces in high-energy-density experiments. In the standard approach to PDV analysis, the short-time Fourier transform (STFT) is used to generate a spectrogram from which the velocity history of the target is inferred. The user chooses the form, duration, and separation of the window function. Here, in this study, we present a Bayesian approach to infer the velocity directly from the PDV oscilloscope trace, without using the spectrogram for analysis. This is clearly a difficult inference problem due to the highly periodic nature of the data, but we find that with carefully chosen prior distributions for the model parameters, we can accurately recover the injected velocity from synthetic data. We validate this method using PDV data collected at the STAR two-stage light gas gun at Sandia National Laboratories, recovering shock-front velocities in quartz that are consistent with those inferred using the STFT-based approach and are interpolated across regions of low signal-to-noise data. Although this method does not rely on the same user choices as the STFT, we caution that it can be prone to misspecification if the chosen model is not sufficient to capture the velocity behavior. Analysis using posterior predictive checks can be used to establish whether a better model is required, although more complex models come with additional computational cost, often taking more than several hours to converge when sampling the Bayesian posterior. We, therefore, recommend it be viewed as a complementary method to that of the STFT-based approach.

Allison, James R. [First Light Fusion Ltd., Yarnto↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Optimization with Gaussian Processes for Double Shell Inertial Confinement Fusion Target Design

Reliable, secure access to energy is a major focus for national security efforts. One potential route to such energy is through fusion reactions in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments. Such experiments are carried out at facilities such as the National Ignition Facility (NIF) in Livermore, California, where high powered lasers are used to compress a DT fuel-containing target to the necessary high temperature, high pressure conditions. These experiments are limited in number, which creates a heavy dependence on high fidelity predictive physics simulations and analysis performed “pre shot,” or before the experiment occurs. Many of these simulations in higher dimensions (2D and 3D) are computationally expensive, so finding optimal simulation-based designs presents its own challenges. In this work, we present our multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization with Gaussian processes (GPs) for ICF double shell targets, where a 1D surrogate model is used to help find a 2D surrogate model, enabling us to find optimal targets in the higher fidelity (2D), while saving computational cost.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian inferences of electrical current delivered to shocked transmission lines

Small radius Bdot measurements of electrical current delivered by pulsed power devices are routinely compromised by electrode/convolute plasmas endemic to multiterawatt transmission lines. Inferences of delivered current unaffected by these issues have recently been obtained by numerically optimizing consistency between model predictions and local experimental velocimetry data, but these are only unique for shockless velocity profiles. In the paper we describe a more general Bayesian method capable of inferring current despite the presence of shocks. Additionally, we describe uncertainty estimates and use of the technique on experimental data. This technique is the first to provide uncertainty estimates on the full current trace delivered to an inertial confinement fusion target.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting fusion ignition at the National Ignition Facility with physics-informed deep learning

Here, an inertial confinement fusion experiment, carried out at the National Ignition Facility, has achieved ignition by generating fusion energy exceeding the laser energy that drove the experiment. Prior to the experiment, a generative machine learning model that combines radiation hydrodynamics simulations, deep learning, experimental data, and Bayesian statistics was used to predict, with a probability greater than 70%, that ignition was the most likely outcome for this shot.

Spears, Brian K. [Lawrence Livermore National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model-predictive optimal control of ferrofluidic microrobots in three-dimensional space

Ferrofluid microrobots have emerged as promising tools for minimally invasive medical procedures. Their unique properties to navigate complex fluids and reach otherwise inaccessible regions of the human body have enabled new applications in targeted drug delivery, tissue engineering, and diagnostics. Here, this paper proposes a model-predictive controller for the external magnetic manipulation of ferrofluid microrobots in three dimensions (3D). The internal optimization routine of the controller determines appropriate changes in the applied electromagnetic field to minimize the deviation between the actual and desired trajectories of the microrobot. A linear system governing locomotion is derived and used as the equality constraints of the optimization problems associated with the feedback index. In addition to ferrofluid droplets, the controller presented in this work may be applied to other magnetically-pulled microrobots. Several experiments are performed to validate the controller and showcase its ability to adapt to changes in system parameters such as the desired tracking trajectory and the size, orientation, deformation, and velocity of the microrobot. The accuracy of the controller is analyzed for each experiment, and the average error is found to be within 0.25 mm for small velocities. An additional experiment is performed to demonstrate significant improvement over a PID controller that is optimally tuned using Bayesian optimization. The results presented in this paper suggest that the proposed control algorithm could enable new microrobotic capabilities in minimally invasive medical procedures, lab-on-a-chip applications, and microfluidics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

EcoBOT: an AI/ML enabled automated phenotyping capability for model plants

Introduction: Advances in automation and AI/ML offer new opportunities for plant science, including design, modeling, and analysis. This study aimed to develop an automated platform for researching small model plants under axenic conditions and integrate it with AI/ML tools. Methods: The EcoBOT platform was developed, which consists of sterile containers (EcoFABs) for growing plants and imaging for monitoring plant growth and health. Brachypodium distachyon was grown on the EcoBOT, and its response to nutrient limitation and copper stress was evaluated. Results: The results showed that Brachypodium distachyon grown in the EcoBOT maintained sterility and responded to nutrient limitation and copper stress. Analysis of over 6,500 root and shoot images revealed varying sensitivity and response rates to copper. Bayesian Optimization was used to improve model accuracies relating copper concentrations to plant biomass via sequential experiments, resulting in a >30% improvement. Discussion: The findings of this study demonstrate the potential of the EcoBOT platform for researching plant responses to environmental factors. Future experiments could focus on relating other chemical stresses and microbial interactions to create generalized models of plant responses.

AI image analysis↗
DOE OSTI2021

Turn-key constrained parameter space exploration for particle accelerators using Bayesian active learning

Abstract Particle accelerators are invaluable discovery engines in the chemical, biological and physical sciences. Characterization of the accelerated beam response to accelerator input parameters is often the first step when conducting accelerator-based experiments. Currently used techniques for characterization, such as grid-like parameter sampling scans, become impractical when extended to higher dimensional input spaces, when complicated measurement constraints are present, or prior information known about the beam response is scarce. Here in this work, we describe an adaptation of the popular Bayesian optimization algorithm, which enables a turn-key exploration of input parameter spaces. Our algorithm replaces the need for parameter scans while minimizing prior information needed about the measurement’s behavior and associated measurement constraints. We experimentally demonstrate that our algorithm autonomously conducts an adaptive, multi-parameter exploration of input parameter space, potentially orders of magnitude faster than conventional grid-like parameter scans, while making highly constrained, single-shot beam phase-space measurements and accounts for costs associated with changing input parameters. In addition to applications in accelerator-based scientific experiments, this algorithm addresses challenges shared by many scientific disciplines, and is thus applicable to autonomously conducting experiments over a broad range of research topics.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Bayesian Approach for Characterizing and Mitigating Gate and Measurement Errors

Various noise models have been developed in quantum computing study to describe the propagation and effect of the noise that is caused by imperfect implementation of hardware. Identifying parameters such as gate and readout error rates is critical to these models. We use a Bayesian inference approach to identify posterior distributions of these parameters such that they can be characterized more elaborately. By characterizing the device errors in this way, we can further improve the accuracy of quantum error mitigation. Experiments conducted on IBM’s quantum computing devices suggest that our approach provides better error mitigation performance than existing techniques used by the vendor. Also, our approach outperforms the standard Bayesian inference method in some scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Examination of nucleon distribution with Bayesian imaging for isobar collisions

Relativistic collision of isobaric systems is found to be valuable in differentiating the nucleon distributions for nuclei with the same mass number. In recent contrast experiment of $^{96}_{44}$Ru + $^{96}_{44}$Ru versus $^{96}_{40}$Zr + $^{96}_{40}$Zr collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 200 GeV, the ratios of multiplicity distribution, elliptic flow, triangular flow, and radial flow are precisely measured and found to be significantly different from unity, indicating the difference in the shapes of the isobar pair. Here, in this work, we investigate the feasibility of nuclear structure reconstruction from heavy-ion collision observables. We perform Bayesian Inference with employing the Monte-Carlo Glauber model as an estimator of the mapping from nuclear structure to the final state observables and to provide the mock data for reconstruction. By varying combination of observables included in the mock data, we find it plausible to infer Woods–Saxon parameters from the observables. We also observe that single-system multiplicity distribution for the isobar system, rather than their ratio, is crucial to simultaneously determine the nuclear structure for the isobar system.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the Likelihood of GHG Concentration Scenarios From Probabilistic Integrated Assessment Model Simulations

The climate scenarios that form the basis for current climate risk assessments have no assigned probabilities, and this impedes the analysis of future climate risks. This paper proposes an approach to estimate the probability of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration scenarios used in key climate change modeling experiments. It computes the CO 2 emissions compatible with the concentrations prescribed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 experiments. The distribution of these compatible cumulative emissions is interpreted as the likelihood of future emissions given a concentration pathway. Using Bayesian analysis, the probability of each pathway can be estimated from a probabilistic sample of future emissions. The approach is demonstrated with five probabilistic CO 2 emission simulation ensembles from four Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), leading to independent estimates of the likelihood of the CO 2 concentration of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Results suggest that SSP5-8.5 is unlikely for the second half of the 21st century, but offer no clear consensus on which of the remaining scenarios is most likely. Estimates of likelihoods of CO 2 concentrations associated with RCP and SSP scenarios are affected by sampling errors, differences in emission sources simulated by the IAMs, and a lack of a common experimental framework for IAM simulations. These shortcomings, along with a small IAM ensemble size, limit the applicability of the results presented here. Novel joint IAM and the Earth System Model experiments are needed to deliver actionable probabilistic climate risk assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analyzing count data with measurement error

In this article, we analyze observed count data such as the number of defects in a steel product where the observed counts are the true counts measured with errors. We account for the measurement error by using a measurement error model based on a latent lognormal (LLN) distribution. We consider making inference about a single population (e.g., from samples of a production lot) and a regression model (e.g., from runs of a designed experiment), where the measurement system properties are known, that is, the parameters of the LLN distribution are known. Then, we consider simultaneous inference for the single population and regression model as well as the measurement system. We demonstrate the proposed methodology with both simulated and real observed counts.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Terry Turbopump Expanded Operating Band Modeling and Simulation Efforts in Fiscal Year 2021 Extended Period of Performance (Final Report)

This report documents the progress made under the Terry Turbine Expanded Operating Band (TTEXOB) program's modeling and simulation (MODSIM) initiative at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL ). It describes the US Federal Fiscal Year 2021 (FY21) extended period-of-performance MODSIM work completed since the closure of FY20 with due reference to the Texas A&M University (TAMU) hybrid milestone 5/6 experimental program. This work, which falls under Milestone 7 of the program, provides a counterpart to the various experiments. The overall TTEXOB program and its milestone-based approach are described in the program's Summary Plan. Details of the individual milestone test plans can be found in the corresponding detailed test plan, e.g. the Milestone 3 and 4 Detailed Test Plan. SNL MODISM is conducted alongside experiments performed at TAMU, and SNL technical staff regularly consults with TAMU on the experimental program. In FY21, MELCOR code models and capabilities were exercised in two different contexts: experimental comparisons to the TAMU ZS-1 and GS-2, and stand-alone analyses of a station black-out (SBO) scenario in a generic boiling water reactor (BWR). Code to experiment comparisons met with fair success when turbine losses were well characterized as for the ZS-1 turbine. Both deterministic and Bayesian calibration processes were used to find a recommended turbine torque multiplier for ZS-1 type turbines. This process could be repeated for GS-2 type turbines if GS-2 losses were better understood. Stand-alone generic BWR SBO calculations revealed that three different modes of self-regulating turbopump behavior may be observed depending on certain modeling parameters and choices having to do with turbine nozzles. Aspects of this predicted behavior may have been observed in TAMU GS-2 experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty quantification of material parameters in modeling coupled metal and high explosive experiments

Experiments involving the coupling of metal and high explosives (HE) are of notable defense-related interest, and we seek to refine the uncertainty quantification associated with models of such experiments. In particular, our focus is on how uncertainty related to the metal constitutive model challenges our ability to infer high explosive model parameters when analyzing focused science experiments. We consider three focused experiments involving an HE accelerating metal: small plate tests with tantalum/LX-14 and tantalum/LX-17 pairings as well as a tantalum/LX-17 cylinder test. For all three models, we perform sensitivity analysis to ascertain the influence of metal strength on the coupled experimental response. Moreover, we calibrate each model in a Bayesian setting and study the quantification of metal strength on the inference of the HE parameters. Based on our results, we offer guidance for future metal/HE experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

A deep learning approach to fast analysis of collective Thomson scattering spectra

Fast analysis of collective Thomson scattering ion acoustic wave features using a deep convolutional neural network model is presented. The network was trained from spectra to predict the plasma parameters, including ion velocities, population fractions, and ion and electron temperatures. A fully kinetic particle-in-cell simulation was used to model a laboratory astrophysics experiment and simulate a diagnostic image of the ion acoustic wave feature. Network predictions were compared with Bayesian inference of the plasma model parameters for both the simulated and experimentally measured images. Both approaches were fairly accurate predicting the simulated image and the network predictions matched a good portion of the Bayesian results for the experimentally measured image. The Bayesian approach is more robust to noise and motivates future work to train deep learning models with realistic noise. The advantage of the deep learning model is making thousands of predictions in a few hundred milliseconds, compared to a few seconds to minutes per prediction for the optimization and Bayesian approaches presented here. The results demonstrate promising capabilities of deep learning models to analyze Thomson data orders of magnitude faster than conventional methods when using the neural network for standalone analysis. If more rigorous analysis is needed, neural network predictions can be used to quickly initialize other optimization methods and increase chances of success. This is especially useful when the dataset becomes very large or highly dimensional and manually refining initial conditions for the entire dataset are no longer tractable.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗