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At least 217 records · Page 12

Bayesian characterization of uncertainties surrounding fluvial flood hazard estimates

Fluvial floods drive severe risk to riverine communities. There is strong evidence of increasing flood hazards in many regions around the world. The choice of methods and assumptions used in flood hazard estimates can impact the design of risk management strategies. In this study, we characterize the expected flood hazards conditioned on the uncertain model structures, model parameters, and prior distributions of the parameters. We construct a Bayesian framework for river stage return level estimation using a nonstationary statistical model that relies exclusively on the Indian Ocean Dipole Index. We show that ignoring uncertainties can lead to biased estimation of expected flood hazards. We find that the considered model parametric uncertainty is more influential than model structures and model priors. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty in extreme flood stage estimates, and are of practical use for informing water infrastructure designs in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Mitigating the Impact of Extragalactic Foregrounds for the DR6 Cosmic Microwave Background Lensing Analysis

We investigate the impact and mitigation of extragalactic foregrounds for the cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing power spectrum analysis of Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) data release 6 (DR6) data. Two independent microwave sky simulations are used to test a range of mitigation strategies. We demonstrate that finding and then subtracting point sources, finding and then subtracting models of clusters, and using a profile bias-hardened lensing estimator together reduce the fractional biases to well below statistical uncertainties, with the inferred lensing amplitude, A lens , biased by less than 0.2σ. We also show that another method where a model for the cosmic infrared background (CIB) contribution is deprojected and high-frequency data from Planck is included has similar performance. Other frequency-cleaned options do not perform as well, either incurring a large noise cost or resulting in biased recovery of the lensing spectrum. In addition to these simulation-based tests, we also present null tests on the ACT DR6 data for sensitivity of our lensing spectrum estimation to differences in foreground levels between the two ACT frequencies used, while nulling the CMB lensing signal. These tests pass whether the nulling is performed at the map or bandpower level. The CIB-deprojected measurement performed on the DR6 data is consistent with our baseline measurement, implying that contamination from the CIB is unlikely to significantly bias the DR6 lensing spectrum. This collection of tests gives confidence that the ACT DR6 lensing measurements and cosmological constraints presented in companion papers to this work are robust to extragalactic foregrounds.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dark energy survey year 3 results: cosmology from galaxy clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing in harmonic space

We present the joint tomographic analysis of galaxy-galaxy lensing and galaxy clustering in harmonic space (HS), using galaxy catalogues from the first three years of observations by the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3). We utilize the redMaGiC and MagLim catalogues as lens galaxies and the metacalibration catalogue as source galaxies. The measurements of angular power spectra are performed using the pseudo-$C_\ell$ method, and our theoretical modelling follows the fiducial analyses performed by DES Y3 in configuration space, accounting for galaxy bias, intrinsic alignments, magnification bias, shear magnification bias and photometric redshift uncertainties. We explore different approaches for scale cuts based on non-linear galaxy bias and baryonic effects contamination. Our fiducial covariance matrix is computed analytically, accounting for mask geometry in the Gaussian term, and including non-Gaussian contributions and super-sample covariance terms. To validate our HS pipelines and covariance matrix, we used a suite of 1800 log-normal simulations. We also perform a series of stress tests to gauge the robustness of our HS analysis. In the $\Lambda$CDM model, the clustering amplitude $S_8 =\sigma _8(\Omega _m/0.3)^{0.5}$ is constrained to $S_8 = 0.704\pm 0.029$ and $S_8 = 0.753\pm 0.024$ (68 per cent C.L.) for the redMaGiC and MagLim catalogues, respectively. For the wCDM, the dark energy equation of state is constrained to $w = -1.28 \pm 0.29$ and $w = -1.26^{+0.34}_{-0.27}$, for redMaGiC and MagLim catalogues, respectively. These results are compatible with the corresponding DES Y3 results in configuration space and pave the way for HS analyses using the DES Y6 data.

(cosmology:) cosmological parameters↗

Towards Off-policy Evaluation as a Prerequisite for Real-world Reinforcement Learning in Building Control

We present an initial study of off-policy evaluation (OPE), a problem prerequisite to real-world reinforcement learning (RL), in the context of building control. OPE is the problem of estimating a policy's performance without running it on the actual system, using historical data from the existing controller. It enables the control engineers to ensure a new, pretrained policy satisfies the performance requirements and safety constraints of a real-world system, prior to interacting with it. While many methods have been developed for OPE, no study has evaluated which ones are suitable for building operational data, which are generated by deterministic policies and have limited coverage of the state-action space. After reviewing existing works and their assumptions, we adopted the approximate model (AM) method. Furthermore, we used bootstrapping to quantify uncertainty and correct for bias. In a simulation study, we evaluated the proposed approach on 10 policies pretrained with imitation learning. On average, the AM method estimated the energy and comfort costs with 1.84% and 14.1% error, respectively.

Chen, B↗

Combinations of Earth Orientation Observations: SPACE94, COMB94, and POLE94

A Kalman filter has been used to combine all publicly available, independently determined measurements of the Earth's orientation taken by the modern, space-geodetic techniques of very long baseline interferometry, satellite laser ranging, lunar laser ranging, and the global positioning system. Prior to combining the data, tidal terms were removed from the UT1 measurements, outlying data points were deleted, series-specific corrections were applied for bias and rate, and the stated uncertainties of the measurements were adjusted by multiplying them by series-specific scale factors. Values for these bias- rate corrections and uncertainty scale factors were determined by an iterative, round-robin procedure wherein each data set is compared, in turn, to a combination of all other data sets. When applied to the measurements, the bias-rate corrections thus determined make the data sets agree with each other in bias and rate, and the uncertainty scale factors thus determined make the residual of each series (when differenced with a combination of all others) have a reduced chi-square of one. The corrected and adjusted series are then placed within an IERS reference frame by aligning them with the IERS Earth orientation series EOP (IERS)90C04. The result of combining these corrected, adjusted and aligned series is designated SPCE94 and spans October 6.0, 1976 to January 27.0, 1995 at daily intervals.

SPACE94 COMB94↗

Consistency of cosmic shear analyses in harmonic and real space

ABSTRACT Recent cosmic shear studies have reported discrepancies of up to 1σ on the parameter ${S_{8}=\sigma _{8}\sqrt{{\Omega _{\rm m}}/0.3}}$ between the analysis of shear power spectra and two-point correlation functions, derived from the same shear catalogues. It is not a priori clear whether the measured discrepancies are consistent with statistical fluctuations. In this paper, we investigate this issue in the context of the forthcoming analyses from the third year data of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3). We analyse DES Y3 mock catalogues from Gaussian simulations with a fast and accurate importance sampling pipeline. We show that the methodology for determining matching scale cuts in harmonic and real space is the key factor that contributes to the scatter between constraints derived from the two statistics. We compare the published scales cuts of the KiDS, Subaru-HSC, and DES surveys, and find that the correlation coefficients of posterior means range from over 80 per cent for our proposed cuts, down to 10 per cent for cuts used in the literature. We then study the interaction between scale cuts and systematic uncertainties arising from multiple sources: non-linear power spectrum, baryonic feedback, intrinsic alignments, uncertainties in the point spread function, and redshift distributions. We find that, given DES Y3 characteristics and proposed cuts, these uncertainties affect the two statistics similarly; the differential biases are below a third of the statistical uncertainty, with the largest biases arising from intrinsic alignment and baryonic feedback. While this work is aimed at DES Y3, the tools developed can be applied to Stage-IV surveys where statistical errors will be much smaller.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Precision Requirements for Space-based XCO2 Data

Precision requirements have been determined for the column-averaged CO2 dry air mole fraction (X(sub CO2)) data products to be delivered by the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO). These requirements result from an assessment of the amplitude and spatial gradients in X(sub CO2), the relationship between X(sub CO2) precision and surface CO2 flux uncertainties calculated from inversions of the X(sub CO2) data, and the effects of X,,Z biases on CO2 flux inversions. Observing system simulation experiments and synthesis inversion modeling demonstrate that the OCO mission design and sampling strategy provide the means to achieve the X(sub CO2) precision requirements. The impact of X(sub CO2) biases on CO2 flux uncertainties depend on their spatial and temporal extent since CO2 sources and sinks are inferred from regional-scale X(sub CO2) gradients. Simulated OCO sampling of the TRACE-P CO2 fields shows the ability of X(sub CO2) data to constrain CO2 flux inversions over Asia and distinguish regional fluxes from India and China.

Miller, C. E.↗

Uncertainty Analysis of the CE-22 Advanced Nozzle Test Facility

This paper presents methods and results of a detailed measurement uncertainty analysis that was performed for the Advanced Nozzle Test Facility, CE-22, located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Results for the uncertainty in thrust and flow coefficients, in addition to other variables of interest, are provided. Results are presented separately as random uncertainty (characterizing errors inherent to instrument or measurement environment, impacting repeatability), systematic uncertainty (capturing inaccuracies due to measurement process, calibration, installation effects or other sources which may introduce bias), and total combined uncertainty. The statistical methods and engineering judgments used to estimate elemental uncertainties are described. The analysis tool MANTUS (Measurement Analysis Tool for Uncertainty in Systems) was used to quantify instrumentation system uncertainty, and statistical analysis and engineering judgment were used to quantify other random and systematic uncertainty sources. The Monte Carlo method was used to propagate systematic and random elemental uncertainties to determine the uncertainties of various calculated variables of interest.

data quality↗

Optimal Cosmic Microwave Background Lensing Reconstruction and Parameter Estimation with SPTpol Data

Here, we perform the first simultaneous Bayesian parameter inference and optimal reconstruction of the gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), using 100 deg 2 of polarization observations from the SPTpol receiver on the South Pole Telescope. These data reach noise levels as low as 5.8 μK arcmin in polarization, which are low enough that the typically used quadratic estimator (QE) technique for analyzing CMB lensing is significantly suboptimal. Conversely, the Bayesian procedure extracts all lensing information from the data and is optimal at any noise level. We infer the amplitude of the gravitational lensing potential to be ${A}_{\phi }=0.949\,\pm \,0.122$ using the Bayesian pipeline, consistent with our QE pipeline result, but with 17% smaller error bars. The Bayesian analysis also provides a simple way to account for systematic uncertainties, performing a similar job as frequentist "bias hardening" or linear bias correction, and reducing the systematic uncertainty on A Φ due to polarization calibration from almost half of the statistical error to effectively zero. Finally, we jointly constrain A Φ along with A L , the amplitude of lensing-like effects on the CMB power spectra, demonstrating that the Bayesian method can be used to easily infer parameters both from an optimal lensing reconstruction and from the delensed CMB, while exactly accounting for the correlation between the two. These results demonstrate the feasibility of the Bayesian approach on real data, and pave the way for future analysis of deep CMB polarization measurements with SPT-3G, Simons Observatory, and CMB-S4, where improvements relative to the QE can reach 1.5 times tighter constraints on A Φ and seven times lower effective lensing reconstruction noise.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

What is the Uncertainty in MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth in the Vicinity of Clouds?

MODIS dark-target (DT) algorithm retrieves aerosol optical depth (AOD) using a Look Up Table (LUT) approach. Global comparison of AOD (Collection 6 ) with ground-based sun photometer gives an Estimated Error (EE) of +/-(0.04 + 10%) over ocean. However, EE does not represent per-retrieval uncertainty. For retrievals that are biased high compared to AERONET, here we aim to closely examine the contribution of biases due to presence of clouds and per-pixel retrieval uncertainty. We have characterized AOD uncertainty at 550 nm, due to standard deviation of reflectance in 10 km retrieval region, uncertainty related to gas (H2O, O3) absorption, surface albedo, and aerosol models. The uncertainty in retrieved AOD seems to lie within the estimated over ocean error envelope of +/-(0.03+10%). Regions between broken clouds tend to have higher uncertainty. Compared to C6 AOD, a retrieval omitting observations in the vicinity of clouds (< or = 1 km) is biased by about +/- 0.05. For homogeneous aerosol distribution, clear sky retrievals show near zero bias. Close look at per-pixel reflectance histograms suggests retrieval possibility using median reflectance values.

Patadia, Falguni↗

Radiative Flux Measurements from ARISE: A Comparison with CERES Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Fluxes

Uncertainty in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation fluxes observations are larger in the Arctic than in other regions. These uncertainties are due to the low sun angles and the highly reflective, anisotropic, and heterogeneous surface conditions. Quantifying, attributing, and reducing Arctic TOA radiative flux uncertainty enables a better understanding of the rapidly changing Arctic. To advance this goal, we compare the Cloud and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) TOA radiative fluxes with Arctic Radiation-IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) campaign measurements collected in September 2014. We compare CERES TOA and aircraft radiative flux measurements using two complementary approaches: grid box average fluxes and instantaneously matched footprints. The grid box mean flux comparison indicates an agreement between CERES and aircraft measurements within 2 uncertainty (calibration and inversion) in the longwave for all five grid boxes and for four-of-five grid boxes in the shortwave; shortwave and longwave mean differences are -7.9 and +2.3 Wm‑2, respectively. The comparison of 36 instantaneously matched footprints with aircraft measurements reveals mean differences of -10.5 and 0.4 Wm‑2 in the shortwave and longwave, respectively. To further explore the persistent negative difference in the shortwave, we further quantify the effects of temporal and spatial sampling differences, angular distribution models, and scene identification to CERES-aircraft differences. Our analysis indicates that sampling differences (including scene evolution) account for an additional 1.8 and 1.7% uncertainty in the shortwave and longwave, respectively and indicates no bias. After accounting for this sampling uncertainty, all CERES-aircraft grid box mean fluxes agree within 2 uncertainty. Scene identification errors due to sea ice concentration data set differences exhibit no bias in the shortwave flux difference and indicate the possibility of substantial differences in the CERES fluxes in specific cases with large spatial heterogeneity. Considering the instantaneously matched footprints, we find that the angular distribution models account may account for up to ‑7.3 Wm-2 of the persistent CERES-aircraft shortwave flux difference due to systematic differences in the anisotropy for sea ice partly cloudy scenes. Additional analysis using a special scan model with the CERES FM2 instrument suggests a significant view zenith angle dependence of the CERES fluxes for sea ice partly cloudy scenes where shortwave fluxes systematically decrease with increasing view zenith angle; no dependence is found for other scene types. We conclude that (1) spatial heterogeneity and scene temporal evolution substantially limit our ability to use aircraft measurements to place strong constraints on CERES TOA fluxes and (2) that the representation of anisotropy in sea ice partly cloudy scenes is a significant factor contributing to the persistent negative CERES-aircraft shortwave flux difference in this comparison and require additional data to analysis fully quantify the potential bias.

Patrick C Taylor↗

Impact of point spread function higher moments error on weak gravitational lensing – II. A comprehensive study

ABSTRACT Weak lensing is one of the most powerful probes for dark matter and dark energy science, although it faces increasing challenges in controlling systematic uncertainties as the statistical errors become smaller. The point spread function (PSF) needs to be precisely modeled to avoid systematic error on the weak lensing measurements. The weak lensing biases induced by errors in the PSF model second moments, i.e. its size and shape, are well-studied. However, Zhang et al. showed that errors in the higher moments of the PSF may also be a significant source of systematics for upcoming weak lensing surveys. Therefore, this work comprehensively investigate the modelling quality of PSF moments from the 3rd to 6th order, and propagate the PSFEx higher moments modelling error in the HSC survey data set to the weak lensing shear–shear correlation functions and their cosmological analyses. The overall multiplicative shear bias associated with errors in PSF higher moments can cause an ∼0.1σ shift on the cosmological parameters for LSST Y10, while the associated additive biases can induce 1σ uncertainties in cosmology parameter inference for LSST Y10, if not accounted. We compare the PSFEx model with PSF in Full FOV, and find similar performance in modelling the PSF higher moments. We conclude that PSF higher moment errors of the future PSF models should be reduced from those in current methods, otherwise needed to be explicitly modeled in the weak lensing analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Galaxy bias in the era of LSST: perturbative bias expansions

Upcoming imaging surveys will allow for high signal-to-noise measurements of galaxy clustering at small scales. In this work, we present the results of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) bias challenge, the goal of which is to compare the performance of different nonlinear galaxy bias models in the context of LSST Year 10 (Y10) data. Specifically, we compare two perturbative approaches, Lagrangian perturbation theory (LPT) and Eulerian perturbation theory (EPT) to two variants of Hybrid Effective Field Theory (HEFT), with our fiducial implementation of these models including terms up to second order in the bias expansion as well as nonlocal bias and deviations from Poissonian stochasticity. Here, we consider a variety of different simulated galaxy samples and test the performance of the bias models in a tomographic joint analysis of LSST-Y10-like galaxy clustering, galaxy-galaxy-lensing and cosmic shear. We find both HEFT methods as well as LPT and EPT combined with non-perturbative predictions for the matter power spectrum to yield unbiased constraints on cosmological parameters up to at least a maximal scale of k max = 0.4 Mpc -1 for all samples considered, even in the presence of assembly bias. While we find that we can reduce the complexity of the bias model for HEFT without compromising fit accuracy, this is not generally the case for the perturbative models. We find significant detections of non-Poissonian stochasticity in all cases considered, and our analysis shows evidence that small-scale galaxy clustering predominantly improves constraints on galaxy bias rather than cosmological parameters. These results therefore suggest that the systematic uncertainties associated with current nonlinear bias models are likely to be subdominant compared to other sources of error for tomographic analyses of upcoming photometric surveys, which bodes well for future galaxy clustering analyses using these high signal-to-noise data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Density modification of cryo-EM maps

Density modification uses expectations about features of a map such as a flat solvent and expected distributions of density in the region of the macromolecule to improve individual Fourier terms representing the map. This process transfers information from one part of a map to another and can improve the accuracy of a map. Here, the assumptions behind density modification for maps from electron cryomicroscopy are examined and a procedure is presented that allows the incorporation of model-based information. Density modification works best in cases where unfiltered, unmasked maps with clear boundaries between the macromolecule and solvent are visible, and where there is substantial noise in the map, both in the region of the macromolecule and the solvent. It also is most effective if the characteristics of the map are relatively constant within regions of the macromolecule and the solvent. Model-based information can be used to improve density modification, but model bias can in principle occur. Here, model bias is reduced by using ensemble models that allow an estimation of model uncertainty. A test of model bias is presented that suggests that even if the expected density in a region of a map is specified incorrectly by using an incorrect model, the incorrect expectations do not strongly affect the final map.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A comparison between CERES TOA Radiative Fluxes and Airborne Radiative Flux Measurements from ARISE

Uncertainty in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation fluxes observations are larger in the Arctic than in other regions. These uncertainties are due to the low sun angles and the highly reflective, anisotropic, and heterogeneous surface conditions. Quantifying, attributing, and reducing Arctic TOA radiative flux uncertainty enables a better understanding of the rapidly changing Arctic. To advance this goal, we compare the Cloud and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) TOA radiative fluxes with Arctic Radiation-IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) campaign measurements collected in September 2014. We compare CERES TOA and aircraft radiative flux measurements using two complementary approaches: grid box average fluxes and instantaneously matched footprints. The grid box mean flux comparison indicates an agreement between CERES and aircraft measurements within 2σ uncertainty (calibration and inversion) in the longwave for all five grid boxes and for four-of-five grid boxes in the shortwave; shortwave and longwave mean differences are -7.9 and +2.3 Wm 2, respectively. The comparison of 36 40 instantaneously matched footprints with aircraft measurements reveals mean differences of -120.25 and -1.00.4 Wm 2 in the shortwave and longwave, respectively. To further explore the persistent negative difference in the shortwave, Wwe further quantify the effects of temporal and spatial sampling differences, angular distribution models, and scene identification to CERES-aircraft differences. Our analysis indicates that sampling differences (including scene evolution) account for an additional 1.8 and 1.7% uncertainty in the shortwave and longwave, respectively and , but indicates no bias. After accounting for this sampling uncertainty, all CERES-aircraft grid box mean fluxes agree within 2σ uncertainty. Scene identification errors due to sea ice concentration data set differences exhibit no bias in the shortwave flux difference and indicate the possibility of substantial differences in the CERES fluxes in specific cases with large spatial heterogeneity. Considering the instantaneously matched footprints, we find that the angular distribution models account may account for up to 7.3 Wm-2 of the persistent CERES-aircraft shortwave flux difference due to systematic differences in the anisotropy for sea ice partly cloudy scenes. Additional analysis using a special programmable scan model with the CERES FM2 instrument suggests a significant view zenith angle dependence of the CERES fluxes for sea ice partly cloudy scenes where shortwave fluxes systematically decrease with increasing view zenith angle; no dependence is found for other scene types. We conclude that (1) spatial heterogeneity and scene temporal evolution substantially limit our ability to use aircraft measurements to place strong constraints on CERES TOA fluxes and (2) that the representation of anisotropy in sea ice partly cloudy scenes is likely a significant factor contributing to the persistent negative CERES-aircraft shortwave flux difference in this comparison and require additional data to analysis fully quantify the potential bias.

Patrick C. Taylor↗

Evaluating Long-Term Changes in Atmospheric Ozone

Ozonesondes have made inexpensive, accurate measurements of ozone from the ground to 30km for more than 50 years. The data are used extensively for trend analyses and for evaluation of satellite and model data products, and are also part of climatologies that are used as a priori data for satellite retrievals. They are essential as a transfer standard when merging shorter satellite-derived time series, and are the most important source of trend-quality long-term records below about 18 km. The importance of long-term ozonesonde records as a stable reference has led to increased attention to quantifying uncertainties and changes in ozonesonde data. Based on past intercomparison data, ECC sondes show a modest (~1-5%) high bias with respect to UV-absorption measurements (including MOZAIC-IAGOS) in the troposphere, with an uncertainty of 5%, but no evidence of a change with time. Other sonde types show an increase of 5-20% in sensitivity to tropospheric ozone from 1970-1995. Agreement in the stratosphere is much better. In the past 20 years ozonesonde precision has improved by a factor of 2, primarily through the adoption of strict standard operating procedures. In addition, many of the most important ozonesonde records have been re-evaluated and corrected, and detailed estimates made of their biases and uncertainties. Corrections to historical data for known issues may reduce biases but simultaneously introduce additional uncertainties. The uncertainty budget for the ozone partial pressure reading has contributions from stoichiometry, cell background current, pump efficiency and temperature, sensing solution type and volume. The much-discussed “background current” has recently been shown to be primarily related to reaction stoichiometry. Several quality assurance issues remain, but are tractable problems that can be addressed with further research. This will be required if the present goal of better than 5% overall uncertainty throughout the global ozonesonde network is to be achieved. Finally, the importance of regular sonde intercomparisons, employing UV photometers traceable to the modern UV-absorption standard, and of regular comparison of operational station records with multiple satellite sensors, is emphasized.

Ozonesondes↗

Total ozone measurement: Intercomparison of prototype New Zealand filter instrument and Dobson spectrophotometer

A five month intercomparison showed that the total ozone amounts of a prototype narrowband interference filter instrument were 7% less than those of a Dobson instrument for an ozone range of 0.300 to 0.500 atm cm and for airmasses less than two. The 7% bias was within the intercomparison calibration uncertainty. An airmass dependence in the Dobson instrument made the bias relationship airmass-dependent but the filter instrument's ozone values were generally constant to 2% up to an airmass of four. Long term drift in the bias was negligible.

Basher, R. E.↗