Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Building energy prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Global-Local Policy Search and its Application in Grid-Interactive Building Control

As the buildings sector represents over 70% of the total U.S. electricity consumption, it offers a great amount of untapped demand-side resources to tackle many critical grid-side problems and improve the overall energy system's efficiency. To help make buildings grid-interactive, this paper proposes a global-local policy search method to train a reinforcement learning (RL) based controller which optimizes building operation during both normal hours and demand response (DR) events. Experiments on a simulated five-zone commercial building demonstrate that by adding a local fine-tuning stage to the evolution strategy policy training process, the control costs can be further reduced by 7.55% in unseen testing scenarios. Baseline comparison also indicates that the learned RL controller outperforms a pragmatic linear model predictive controller (MPC), while not requiring intensive online computation.

demand response↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-throughput oxidation screening and down-selection of refractory high entropy alloys in the Al-Cr-Mo-Nb-Ta-Ti system

Rapid experimentation and characterization are ever-present needs in the discovery of high entropy alloys. High entropy alloy systems are difficult to survey with systematic composition sweeps using traditional synthesis methods. The number of distinct compositions in even a four-element system is experimentally intractable. Exploration of these, and higher-element systems, necessitates thermodynamic prediction coupled with an automated sample creation method and a rapid screening methodology to effectively down-select alloys with targeted properties. As a result, a high-throughput method for evaluating the oxidation performance of refractory high entropy alloys was developed and tested. The six-element system of aluminum, chromium, molybdenum, niobium, tantalum, and titanium was evaluated for single phase stability and short-duration oxidation resistance. Target compositions were initially determined via thermodynamic predictions of single-phase stability across a wide temperature range. A twenty-five-sample build plate was produced using directed energy deposition additive manufacturing. After fabrication, the twenty-five 1 cm 3 samples were heat treated and characterized for composition and phase identification. The build plate was exposed to a high temperature oxidizing environment at 1000 °C for three hours. After oxidation, the composition, morphology, and chemistry of the oxides formed were characterized. Of the twenty-five samples produced, nine exhibited a favorable oxidation response, from which a single-phase BCC alloy at a composition of Al 13 Cr 7 Mo 19 Nb 18 Ta 26 Ti 17 was identified as the alloy with the most protective oxidation coating with a thin, adherent oxide scale. Finally, the complete experimental down-selection—from machine setup to final alloy identification—required approximately 45 labor hours, demonstrating a rapid validation for alloy discovery.

Additive manufacturing↗
NASA NTRS1974

The Energy Systems Optimization Computer Program /ESOP/ developed for Modular Integrated Utility Systems /MIUS/ analysis

A significant energy and cost savings can be obtained by integrating various utility services (space heating and cooling, electrical power generation, solid waste disposal, potable water, and waste water treatment) into a single unit which provides buildings or groups of buildings with these services. This paper presents a description of a computer program, called the Energy Systems Optimization Program (ESOP). This program predicts the loads, energy requirements, equipment sizes, and life-cycle costs of alternative methods of meeting these utility requirements. The program has been used extensively for performing energy analyses of Modular Integrated Utility Systems (MIUS).

Ferden, S. L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Recurrent neural networks for short-term and long-term prediction of geothermal reservoirs

Accurate prediction of geothermal reservoir responses to alternative energy production scenarios is critical for optimizing the development of the underlying resources. While the conventional physics-based models offer a comprehensive prediction tool, data-driven models provide an efficient alternative to build fit-for-purpose predictive models by extracting and using the statistical patterns in the collected data to make predictions. The recurrent neural network (RNN) is a data-driven model that is commonly applied to predict time series sequences. This paper presents a variant of RNN that also utilizes the efficiency of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for the prediction of energy production from geothermal reservoirs. Specifically, a CNN–RNN architecture is developed that takes historical well controls as input (features) and their corresponding production response data as output (labels) to learn an input-output mapping that can predict the future well production responses/performance for any given future well control inputs. The model is paired with a labeling scheme to handle real field disturbances that create data gaps. In addition to the model structure, we introduce a thorough workflow for applying the model, which includes data pre-processing, feature selection, as well as different training strategies for short-term and long-term prediction. Finally, the performance and accuracy of the model are evaluated by applying it to multiple datasets, including a field reservoir model.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian model mixing with multireference energy density functional

Reliably predicting nuclear properties across the entire chart of isotopes is important for applications ranging from nuclear astrophysics to superheavy science to nuclear technology. To this day, however, all the theoretical models that can scale at the level of the chart of isotopes remain semiphenomenological. Because they are fitted locally, their predictive power can vary significantly; different versions of the same theory provide different predictions. Bayesian model mixing takes advantage of such imperfect models to build a local mixture of a set of models to make improved predictions. Earlier attempts to use Bayesian model mixing for mass table calculations relied on models treated at single-reference energy density functional level, which fail to capture some of the correlations caused by configuration mixing or the restoration of broken symmetries. In this study we have applied Bayesian model mixing techniques within a multireference energy density functional (MR-EDF) framework. We considered predictions of two-particle separation energies from particle number projection or angular momentum projection with four different energy density functionals—a total of eight different MR-EDF models. We used a hierarchical Bayesian stacking framework with a Dirichlet prior distribution over weights together with an inverse log-ratio transform to enable positive correlations between different models. We found that Bayesian model mixing provides significantly improved predictions compared to the participating models. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of cooling setpoint setback savings in commercial buildings using electricity and exterior temperature time series data

Commercial buildings account for a significant amount of total energy produced in the US, and the Heating Ventilation and Cooling (HVAC) systems are one of the most significant components of their overall consumption. In this study, we proposed a new data-driven approach to evaluate HVAC cooling systems in commercial buildings and identify savings opportunities. The focus is an investigation of the impact of thermostat setpoint setback but using only whole building, electricity data taken at 15-min intervals for the analysis. We conducted a comparative study of setpoint setback characteristics on 432 commercial buildings with 5 building usage types across the United States. To accomplish this, both piecewise and Random Forest regression algorithms were employed using electricity and exterior temperature datasets to identify operational characteristics and the effective setpoints in the building to determine the corresponding savings opportunities. Both occupied and unoccupied time periods were studied across cooling degree days (CDD), when air conditioning is typically operational. Here the results show that in commercial buildings, on average, cooling systems account for 9.5% of total consumption. When a one degree setback during the cooling season is applied, an average of approximately 1.1% of annual consumption is achieved; retail and office buildings demonstrate the highest potential for savings. Additionally, we identified that the number of cooling degree days and base to peak ratio (BPR) are the most important variables for predicting the magnitude of the consumption of cooling systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Catalyst Surface Stability Under Reaction Conditions Using Deep Reinforcement Learning and Machine Learning Potentials

Catalysts are critical for most large-scale energy intensive chemical transformation processes, such as energy storage, liquid fuel production, and the formation of chemical building blocks. The catalyst composition, structure, and morphology impact the performance under reaction conditions and influences properties like activity and selectivity. Many industrial catalysts offer imperfect activity/selectivity, or contain expensive metals. Further, catalysts can deactivate over time as the morphology changes or harsh reactive environments alter the surface structure. Methods to automatically model and predict the kinetics of how catalyst surfaces will restructure would enable engineers to design around these challenges, improve performance, increase longevity. This project investigated a specific type of machine learning model, deep reinforcement learning, machine learning models to act as surrogates for the physical system, and compared the results of these approaches with a specialized high-throughput experimental synthesis and measurement platform.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Geothermal-integrated thermally anisotropic building envelope for energy and peak-demand reduction

Buildings consume large amounts of energy for heating and cooling, while peak electricity demand places significant stress on the power grid. This paper presents a reduced-order co-simulation framework and load-oriented supervisory control strategy for a geothermal-integrated thermally anisotropic building envelope with a ground loop (TABE+GL). In TABE+GL, a hydronic loop embedded in the building envelope is directly coupled with a geothermal ground loop, allowing for bidirectional heat exchange between the envelope, the ground, and the indoor environment. A hybrid co-simulation framework was established by coupling a reduced-order resistor–capacitor (RC) thermal network model with EnergyPlus augmented with GHEDesigner modules. The RC model generated feasible heat flux options under three operating modes, and EnergyPlus predicted sensible loads, energy use, and pump energy demand. At each simulation step, a supervisory control algorithm selected the optimal loop configuration and duty factor that maximizes useful TABE geothermal utilization without exceeding the predicted sensible load, thereby avoiding overheating or cooling. Case studies were conducted for Los Angeles, California, Charleston, South Carolina, and Denver, Colorado. Results showed that the proposed framework reduced HVAC electricity consumption by 43%–67%, natural gas use for space heating by 11%–38%, and peak electricity demand by 43%–88%. These results highlight the potential of combining reduced-order envelope modeling, direct geothermal coupling, and load-oriented supervisory control to improve whole building energy performance and reduce peak demand across diverse weather conditions.

Howard, Daniel [Southern Adventist University]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum fate of the Choptuik naked singularity

Classical critical collapse provides a dynamical route from smooth initial data to a naked singularity, representing a sharper violation of predictability than ordinary black hole singularities. We argue that this distinction is erased by quantum backreaction. Building on the semiclassical interior analysis, where quantum self-energy of the collapsing matter generates a universal growing mode and a finite mass gap, we study the exterior naked singularity region that determines global visibility in the Einstein-scalar system. We analyze controlled exterior models in both $2+1$ and $3+1$ dimensions. In the former, smooth matching and physical boundary conditions analytically select a vacuum polarization state, whose backreaction cloaks the classically naked region by a quantum trapped branch. In the latter, numerical horizon tracing shows that near a quantum-shifted threshold the exterior develops finite-mass marginally trapped surfaces rather than a zero-mass naked endpoint. These results suggest a global quantum picture in which the Choptuik naked singularity shares the fate of an ordinary black hole singularity: quantum effects push the putative Cauchy horizon behind a quantum-generated horizon, thereby reducing the loss of predictability to the standard black hole evaporation problem.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Field Performance of Commercial Building Load Flexibility Using Model Predictive Control

Model Predictive Control (MPC) applied to buildings is starting to see some commercial adoption by companies. However, it is hard to estimate if relative energy cost savings are enough to justify the cost of MPC implementation with few reported demonstrations. In small commercial and residential buildings, a one size-fits-all solution can help reduce implementation costs, while in very large buildings or districts the potential energy cost savings magnitude can cover more tailored solutions. This estimation becomes harder for medium to large commercial buildings, where a one-size-fits-all solution cannot be adopted and potential energy cost savings might not be sufficient to cover a tailored solution. Therefore, value propositions in addition to energy efficiency alone can make MPC technology more attractive through additional energy cost savings. One such value proposition is load shifting in response to dynamic electricity prices. On this aspect, MPC is a key technology to unlock building thermal mass for energy flexibility in response to electric grid conditions. This study shows the experimental results of MPC control of an office building in Berkeley, where different dynamic electricity price profiles were used in the MPC objective function to shift the building load and to calculate hypothetical electricity costs. Results show potential 50% cost savings with respect to the existing controller with the dynamic price scenario.

Zanetti, Ettore↗
NASA NTRS1974

The NASA Langley building solar project and the supporting Lewis solar technology program

A solar energy technology program is described that includes solar collector testing in an indoor solar simulator facility and in an outdoor test facility, property measurements of solar panel coatings, and operation of a laboratory-scale solar model system test facility. Early results from simulator tests indicate that non-selective coatings behave more nearly in accord with predicted performance than do selective coatings. Initial experiments on the decay rate of thermally stratified hot water in a storage tank have been run. Results suggest that where high temperature water is required, excess solar energy collected by a building solar system should be stored overnight in the form of chilled water rather than hot water.

Ragsdale, R. G.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Harvesting the low-hanging fruit of high energy savings -- Virtual Occupancy using Wi-Fi Data

Approximately 20% of primary energy consumed in the U.S. is attributed to HVAC use. Ideally, HVAC operation would be driven by actual building occupancy, but lack of reliable occupancy information often results in the use of conservative static schedules. This disparity is even more pronounced in a college campus, where the function of each space differs by building (classrooms, offices, libraries) and the class schedules change frequently -- every semester, day of week, and hour. While several research papers propose the use of counts of the Wi-Fi connections (e.g., phones, computers) as a proxy for occupancy, few real-world implementations exist. This paper describes the development and deployment of an open-source Wi-Fi-to-Occupancy software library in 65 buildings of a college campus, and the planned integration with the building energy management and control system at the building scale. Over a year of Wi-Fi data was gathered into distinct academic periods, including fall and spring semester, academic breaks, and summer sessions. Patterns such as students moving between classrooms, closing laptops before exams, etc., can be visualized from the data. Approximating occupancy from Wi-Fi data presents challenges which we address in this project -- for example, identifying static devices, or estimating the ratio of devices per person. Utilizing real-time occupancy data to inform optimal HVAC schedules and ventilation rates creates the potential to identify and reduce energy waste. Other potential applications include forecasting occupancy, and using Wi-Fi data to predict peak demands. Finally, the paper discusses how to easily scale these tools to other buildings.

Pritoni, Marco↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal Renewable Resource Allocation and Load Scheduling of Resilient Communities

This paper presents a methodology for enhancing community resilience through optimal renewable resource allocation and load scheduling in order to minimize unserved load and thermal discomfort. The proposed control architecture distributes the computational effort and is easier to be scaled up than traditional centralized control. The decentralized control architecture consists of two layers: The community operator layer (COL) allocates the limited amount of renewable energy resource according to the power flexibility of each building. The building agent layer (BAL) addresses the optimal load scheduling problem for each building with the allowable load determined by the COL. Both layers are formulated as a model predictive control (MPC) based optimization. Simulation scenarios are designed to compare different combinations of building weighting methods and objective functions to provide guidance for real-world deployment by community and microgrid operators. The results indicate that the impact of power flexibility is more prominent than the weighting factor to the resource allocation process. Allocation based purely on occupancy status could lead to an increase of PV curtailment. Further, it is necessary for the building agent to have multi-objective optimization to minimize unserved load ratio and maximize comfort simultaneously.

model predictive control↗
DOE OSTI2026

Envelope-driven comfort risk in residential demand response

Residential demand response (DR) is a valuable resource for grid reliability, but remains challenging because the highly heterogeneous residential building stock leads to widely varying and hard-to-predict load and comfort responses during DR events. Although prior research has estimated the technical potential of DR-capable technologies for achieving energy demand savings, little is known about how they affect thermal comfort. In particular, it remains unclear how indoor thermal conditions due to DR depend on the thermal envelope characteristics of the housing stock. To address this gap, this study provides a systematic, location-specific assessment of indoor thermal performance during DR-events across the US housing stock using both typical DR weather data and detailed building metadata. We evaluate how envelope characteristics influence indoor temperatures during realistic simulated summer and winter DR events across 37 US locations, applying both temperature threshold and rate of temperature change criteria to estimate region-level probabilities of discomfort. Additionally, we show the impact of distinct weather patterns that intensify or abate thermal stress on comfort outcomes. Results show a near-universal overheating risk in summer DR events, where comfort outcomes are strongly influenced by rapid risk of comfort violations. In contrast, overall winter DR discomfort risk is lower, risk escalation is more gradual and shows greater sensitivity to event duration. These findings offer a data-driven quantification of comfort risk across diverse climates and building envelopes, demonstrating the need for region-specific DR scheduling and discomfort mitigation strategies tailored to local weather patterns and the performance of existing residential buildings.

Demand response↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-scale fission product release model with comparison to AGR data

TRistructural ISOtropic (TRISO) particle fuel is central to several advanced, high-temperature reactor designs. Each particle consists of a fuel kernel encapsulated by three layers of carbon and ceramics that prevent the release of fission products and ensure physical integrity. Despite outstanding retention properties, fission product release has been observed from intact particles. To better understand and quantify fission product release from TRISO particles, a multiscale, mechanistic model of fission product transport is being developed by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. Previous work focused on silver (Ag) transport and improved Ag release predictions. The work described in this report builds on this experience to better understand cesium (Cs) transport in silicon carbide (SiC), the main barrier to the release of fission products. Atomistic simulations provide bulk and grain boundary (GB) Cs diffusivities in SiC, which are used by phase field simulations in the mesoscale code Marmot to determine the temperature, microstructure, and irradiation-dependent Cs diffusivity at the mesoscale in SiC. This approach attributes the different temperature regimes experimentally observed for Cs diffusivities in SiC to a transition from bulk-dominated diffusivity at high temperatures to a GB-dominated regime at low temperatures, providing new insight. The multiscale, mechanistic effective diffusivity is then implemented in the fuel performance code BISON and further validated by comparing Cs release predictions from Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-1 and AGR-2 post-irradiation measurements. The new model improves BISON’s predictability. This document also reports improvements made on Ag transport modeling by accounting for different GB types having different diffusivities. Moreover, this report details preliminary efforts to model palladium (Pd) attack of the SiC at the mesoscale using a phase field approach. Pd attack and its impact on accelerated Ag transport remains a misunderstood phenomenon, and we use the model to demonstrate that the formation of lamellae that has been observed in experiments can be explained by the reaction of Pd with SiC to form alternating layers of graphite and Pd 2 Si. This effort aims to improve our understanding of the reaction and eventually provide a model for BISON to account for Pd penetration and its effects on fission product release.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗