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At least 217 records · Page 12

Integrated Resource Supply-Demand-Routing Model for the COVID-19 Crisis

As part of the Department of Energy response to the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic of 2020, a modeling effort was sponsored by the DOE Office of Science. Through this effort, an integrated planning framework was developed whose capabilities were demonstrated with the combination of a treatment resource demand model and an optimization model for routing supplies. This report documents this framework and models, and an application involving ventilator demands and supplies in the continental United States. The goal of this application is to test the feasibility of implementing nationwide ventilator sharing in response to the COVID-19 crisis. Multiple scenarios were run using different combinations of forecasted and observed patient streams, and it is demonstrated that using a "worst-case forecast for planning may be preferable to best mitigate supply-demand risks in an uncertain future. There is also a brief discussion of model uncertainty and its implications for the results.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Characterization of Partially Observed Epidemics - Application to COVID-19

This report documents a statistical method for the "real-time" characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of daily counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information for the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and is predicated on a model for the distribution of the incubation period. The model parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. The method is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, using data at the country, provincial (e.g., states) and regional (e.g. county) levels. The epidemiological model includes a stochastic component due to uncertainties in the incubation period. This model-form uncertainty is accommodated by a pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings MCMC sampler, which produces posterior distributions that reflect this uncertainty. We approximate the discrepancy between the data and the epidemiological model using Gaussian and negative binomial error models; the latter was motivated by the over-dispersed count data. For small daily counts we find the performance of the calibrated models to be similar for the two error models. For large daily counts the negative-binomial approximation is numerically unstable unlike the Gaussian error model. Application of the model at the country level (for the United States, Germany, Italy, etc.) generally provided accurate forecasts, as the data consisted of large counts which suppressed the day-to-day variations in the observations. Further, the bulk of the data is sourced over the duration before the relaxation of the curbs on population mixing, and is not confounded by any discernible country-wide second wave of infections. At the state-level, where reporting was poor or which evinced few infections (e.g., New Mexico), the variance in the data posed some, though not insurmountable, difficulties, and forecasts were able to capture the data with large uncertainty bounds. The method was found to be sufficiently sensitive to discern the flattening of the infection and epidemic curve due to shelter-in-place orders after around 90% quantile for the incubation distribution (about 10 days for COVID-19). The proposed model was also used at a regional level to compare the forecasts for the central and north-west regions of New Mexico. Modeling the data for these regions illustrated different disease spread dynamics captured by the model. While in the central region the daily counts peaked in the late April, in the north-west region the ramp-up continued for approximately three more weeks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Enabling generalized phage therapy to treat secondary infections in COVID-19 (CRADA Final Report)

COVID-19 is a global health threat, with 32 millions infected and more than 500,000 deaths in the U.S. alone. A key aspect of COVID-19 deaths is bacterial secondary infections, with Staphylococcus aureus, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa identified as some of the major causative pathogens. Phage therapy, i.e., the administration of bacteriophages (viruses infecting these bacterial pathogens) to patients offers a complementary solution to antibiotics with multiple key advantages. Felix Biotechnology’s is developing a high-throughput platform to identify phages that not only kill pathogens, but also drive targeted trade-off of pathogenic phenotypes such as reduced virulence and antibiotic resistance, at a fraction of the time and R&D cost of any competitor. In this project, collaboration with scientists from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory enabled Felix Biotechnology to establish robust analysis pipeline to investigate phage-host interactions in complex samples. These should enable a quick and robust identification of promising phages and key genetic determinants for therapy applications, paving the way towards a streamlined and safe use of phages in the clinic.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

COVID-19 Testing R&D (Final Report)

Eleven Labs within the US Department of Energy (DOE), National Virtual Biotechnology Laboratory (NVBL), came together as a team to address significant R&D gaps in COVID-19 testing. Beginning in March 2020, the NVBL COVID Testing Team developed an R&D agenda, worked with DOE and other agencies to set priorities, and collaborated to deliver timely results. Priority was given to quick implementation as well as development of novel capabilities for immediate and evolving pandemic needs without placing additional burden on operational performers. Priority elements capitalized on DOE National Laboratory strengths and expertise. The Team delivered: testing and evaluation that enabled decisions on testing options, forwardleaning approaches to prepare for future scale-up needs, and models and experiments that supported prioritization of diagnostic and therapeutic candidates.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

COVID-19, An Exercise in Data Governance at Sandia National Laboratories

In April of 2020, Sandia National Laboratories had an urgent need to identify and manage the data that could be used to create mobile applications, models, reports, and visualizations to assist management in safely bringing the workforce onsite during the COVID-19 pandemic. Multiple divisions volunteered to design and build software solutions; meanwhile, requests for new data sources, including duplicate requests, were inundating Information Technology (IT) and data owners. The Enterprise Data Governance Team was assigned to resolve obtaining and accessing new sources of data in an accelerated timeframe. Through successful collaboration with multiple stakeholders and domain owners across Sandia, the Enterprise Data Governance Team rapidly developed a centralized data strategy and solution for use in safeguarding the Sandia workforce during the COVID-19 pandemic. This foundation enabled teams to successfully develop solutions, including reports for executives and management as well as the data for modeling and scientific analysis.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Request for Medical Exemption from Covid-19 Vaccination

If you have a specific medical condition that precludes the COVID-19 vaccination requirement and you seek a medical exemption from Los Alamos National Laboratory’s COVID-19 vaccination requirement, please consult with your physician and provide the following information.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

COVID-19 Data Curation Effort: An Initial Analysis of the Data

During the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, major case reporting outlets quickly coalesced around two or three primary vendors. Johns Hopkins University and The New York Times were among the more prominent, and all were of great value to the nation, particularly during the uncertain early stages of the pandemic. They primarily focused on three major attributes: number of new cases, deaths, and recovery. Recognizing that many states were reporting very detailed data sets (e.g., hospital beds) at a county level or finer, the ORNL Pandemic Modeling team embarked on a major data curation effort from March to June 2020 for the purpose of capturing this wealth of detailed data. The challenge of curating this data was daunting. The number of attributes reported by the states grew on almost on a weekly basis. States were routinely shifting their web tool strategies away from easily parsable HTML-based formatting to new Tableau and ArcGIS content. This growth in the sheer number of attributes, combined with the unpredictable shifts in data format, meant an aggressive and agile combination of automated scripting and manual scraping was required to capture new daily streams. Further, the team had to scale up staff and widen its approach for capture and storage. As a result, the team collected more than 11 million data points. Following the close of this data collection effort on June 30 th , 2020, the team embarked on a major effort to appraise what had been collected, including an inventory list, spatial completeness, temporal completeness, scale and geographic characteristics, and a determination. A report on this matter was submitted on September 15 th , 2020, titled “DOE COVID-19 Data Curation Effort: Overview of Data Collection Coverage”. Over 2000 unique attributes had been netted over a wide range of spatial scales, including state, county, zip codes, health regions, and census blocks. Over 11 million individual data points were collected across these attributes, and spatial coverage (in total) included all 50 states and multiple territories. What became apparent in the process is that in the absence of any data standards, many states reported a wide variety of unique attributes that were not always compatible with attributes reported in other states. As time continued, states began adding new attributes and offering finer grain detail in some older attributes. This meant that not all data streams existed for the entire time period; in fact, the number tended to increase dramatically towards the end. Often, states would begin an attribute series and then stop altogether. These highly variable and uncertain conditions illuminated the need for harmonization approaches that would reconcile and conflate changing attribute names and detail over time. For example, grouping racial data reported as either Black or African American, depending on the state, into a single harmonized attribute. These choices would make a within-state analysis possible during the time period and lead to potential between-state analytics later on. This was almost entirely a manual decision process, requiring some subjective decision-making at times, to prevent a fragmented, short-lived collection of time series fragments that would offer few insights into trends, patterns, and correlates. This report imports harmonized data for state and county into the World Spatio-Temporal Analytics and Mapping Project (WSTAMP). WSTAMP is a major space-time analysis and visualization tool developed at ORNL for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency specifically for this kind of exploratory analysis. WSTAMP offers a rich analytical and graphical environment consisting of a wide range of analytics. These include time series plots, statistical summaries, data mining techniques, trend and pattern detection, and hypothesis generation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE COVID-19 Data Curation Effort: Overview of Initial Data Collection Coverage (March - June 2020)

During the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, major case reporting outlets quickly coalesced around two or three primary vendors. Johns Hopkins University and The New York Times were among the more prominent, and all were of great value to the nation, particularly during the uncertain early stages of the pandemic. They primarily focused on three major attributes: number of new cases, deaths, and recovery, but only at the state level. Recognizing that many states were reporting very detailed data sets (e.g., hospital beds) at a count level or finer, the ORNL Pandemic Modeling team embarked on a major data curation effort from March to June 2020 for the purpose of capturing this wealth of detailed data. The challenge of curating this data was daunting. The number of attributes reported by the states grew on almost on a weekly basis. States were routinely shifting their web tool strategies away from easily parsable HTML-based formatting to new Tableau and ArcGIS content. This growth in the sheer number of attributes combined with the unpredictable shifts in data format meant an aggressive and agile combination of automated scripting and manual scraping was required to capture new daily streams. To keep up, the team had to scale up staff and widen its approach for capture and storage. The DOE COVID-19 data collection effort resulted in over 11 million data points being collected, covering over 13,000 unique geographies and over 2,000 unique attributes that spanned predominantly from early March through the end of June 2020.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Agent-Based Models for COVID-19 [Slides]

Goals: 1) Evaluate "what if” scenarios and mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19 spread within LANL and 2) perform retrospective analysis to assess accuracy of LANL COVID-19 agent-based model (ABM).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Utilizing multimodal high-intensity interval training for a firefighter training academy during the COVID-19 pandemic

Firefighters typically undergo a 16–24-week training academy during which they perform a variety of traditional exercise programs such as cardiovascular, resistance, and concurrent training. Because of limited facility access, some fire departments seek alternative exercise programs, such as multimodal high-intensity interval training (MM-HIIT), which essentially combines resistance and interval training. Here, the primary purpose of this study was to assess the effect of MM-HIIT on body composition and physical fitness in firefighter recruits who completed a training academy during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. A secondary purpose was to compare the effects of MM-HIIT to previous training academies that implemented traditional exercise programs. Healthy and recreationally-trained recruits (n=12) participated in 2-3 days/week of MM-HIIT for 12 weeks and had several components of body composition and physical fitness measured before and after the program. Because of COVID-19-related gym closures, all MM-HIIT sessions were performed outdoors at a fire station with minimal equipment. These data were retroactively compared to a control group (CG) that previously completed training academies with traditional exercise programs. Subjects in the MM-HIIT group significantly improved several components of body composition and fitness, including fat mass, fat-free mass, body fat percentage, aerobic capacity, and muscular endurance (p < 0.005). Moreover, there were no significant differences for any dependent variable when MM-HIIT was compared to the CG (p≥0.005). These results suggest that MM-HIIT may serve as an effective substitute for traditional concurrent training paradigms that are typically used for firefighter academies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Modeling the impact of COVID-19 on air quality in southern California: implications for future control policies

Abstract. In response to the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19), California issued statewide stay-at-home orders, bringing about abrupt and dramatic reductions in air pollutant emissions. This crisis offers us an unprecedented opportunity to evaluate the effectiveness of emission reductions in terms of air quality. Here we use the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) in combination with surface observations to study the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown measures on air quality in southern California. Based on activity level statistics and satellite observations, we estimate the sectoral emission changes during the lockdown. Due to the reduced emissions, the population-weighted concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) decrease by 15 % in southern California. The emission reductions contribute 68 % of the PM2.5 concentration decrease before and after the lockdown, while meteorology variations contribute the remaining 32 %. Among all chemical compositions, the PM2.5 concentration decrease due to emission reductions is dominated by nitrate and primary components. For O3 concentrations, the emission reductions cause a decrease in rural areas but an increase in urban areas; the increase can be offset by a 70 % emission reduction in anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs). These findings suggest that a strengthened control on primary PM2.5 emissions and a well-balanced control on nitrogen oxides and VOC emissions are needed to effectively and sustainably alleviate PM2.5 and O3 pollution in southern California.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projected long-term effects of colorectal cancer screening disruptions following the COVID-19 pandemic

The aftermath of the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic may contribute to the widening of disparities in colorectal cancer (CRC) outcomes due to differential disruptions to CRC screening. This comparative microsimulation analysis uses two CISNET CRC models to simulate the impact of ongoing screening disruptions induced by the COVID-19 pandemic on long-term CRC outcomes. We evaluate three channels through which screening was disrupted: delays in screening, regimen switching, and screening discontinuation. The impact of these disruptions on long-term CRC outcomes was measured by the number of life-years lost due to CRC screening disruptions compared to a scenario without any disruptions. While short-term delays in screening of 3–18 months are predicted to result in minor life-years loss, discontinuing screening could result in much more significant reductions in the expected benefits of screening. These results demonstrate that unequal recovery of screening following the pandemic can widen disparities in CRC outcomes and emphasize the importance of ensuring equitable recovery to screening following the pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Impact of COVID-Global Shutdown on Earth's Radiation Budget

Climate is fueled by how much of the sun’s energy is absorbed by Earth. Changes in aerosol emissions have a direct impact how much solar energy is absorbed under clear-sky conditions, which occurs roughly one-third of the time globally. Aerosol emission changes can also indirectly influence clouds and further alter solar energy absorption. In this presentation, we examine the impact of the COVID-19 global shutdown on Earth’s radiation budget at global and regional scales and compare it with other changes that have had an influence on Earth's radiation budget during the past 20 years—including policy-related emission controls, wildfire events and changes in sea-ice extent in polar regions. We use a novel analysis technique together with data from NASA instruments on the Terra, Aqua and Aura satellites and reanalysis data from MERRA-2. We also compare results with state-of-the-art general circulation models that have been nudged to reanalysis data (winds, air temperature and surface 25 pressure) at all levels. Our preliminary results show that the largest COVID-19 impact occurs regionally over the East Asian Marginal Seas, just off the coast of China. We find a 30% reduction in aerosol optical depth according to the MODIS instrument, and an 8% reduction in reflected solar radiation according to the CERES radiation budget instrument. The climate model simulations show remarkable consistency with the observations and furthermore show no evidence of an indirect effect on cloud properties.

Norman G. Loeb↗

Dashboards to Explore Effects of COVID-19 Using Earth Observations

People are reeling from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in every part of the world. As a result,changes in human activity have made visible impacts on ourplanet. To understand these impacts, NASA, ESA (European Space Agency), and JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) joined forces to develop a trilateral dashboard—a situational awareness tool backed by Earth observation derived indicators. An unprecedented collaboration followed for the next two months between the three agencies in which data, science, and technology experts addressed several challenges including indicator development, infrastructure, data management, content development, and communication. “COVID-19 Earth Observation Dashboard” was successfully released offering user-friendly tracking of changes in indicators that include air and water quality, climate, economic activity, and agriculture. This presentation will highlight the outcomes, coordination, technical approaches, collaboration, processes, and lessons learned from the dashboard development.

Manil Maskey↗

The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions due to COVID-19: Initial Results from CovidMIP

Many nations responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO2, other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. Twelve models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020-2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID- 19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.

Chris D. Jones↗

Global Impact of COVID-19 Restrictions on the Atmospheric Concentrations of Nitrogen Dioxide and Ozone

Social-distancing to combat the COVID-19 pandemic has led to widespread reductions in air pollutant emissions. Quantifying these changes requires a business-as-usual counterfactual that accounts for the synoptic and seasonal variability of air pollutants. We use a machine learning algorithm driven by information from the NASA GEOS-CF model to assess changes in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) at 5,756 observation sites in countries from January through June 2020. Reductions in NO2 coincide with timing and intensity of COVID-19 restrictions, ranging from 60% in severely affected cities (e.g., Wuhan, Milan) to little change (e.g., Rio de Janeiro, Taipei). On average, NO2 concentrations were (13-23) % lower than business as usual from February 2020 onward. China experienced the earliest and steepest decline, but concentrations since April have mostly recovered and remained within 5% to the business-as-usual estimate. NO2 reductions in Europe and the US have been more gradual with a halting recovery starting in late March. We estimate that the global NOx (NO+NO2) emission reduction during the first 6 months of 2020 amounted to 3.1 (2.6-3.6) TgN, equivalent to 5.5(4.7-6.4) % of the annual anthropogenic total. The response of surface O3 is complicated by competing influences of non-linear atmospheric chemistry. While surface O3 increased by up to 50% in some locations, we find the overall net impact on daily average O3 between February -June 2020 to be small. However, our analysis indicates a flattening of the O3 diurnal cycle with an increase in nighttime ozone due to reduced titration and a decrease in daytime ozone, reflecting a reduction in photochemical production.

Christoph A Keller↗

Aerosol Loading and Radiation Budget Perturbations in Densely Populated and Highly Polluted Indo-Gangetic Plain by COVID-19: Influences on Cloud Properties and Air Temperature

Aerosols emitted in densely populated and industrialized Indo-Gangetic Plain, one of the most polluted regions in the world, modulate regional climate, monsoon, and Himalayan glacier retreat. Thus, this region is important for understanding aerosol perturbations and their resulting impacts on atmospheric changes during COVID-19 lockdown period, a natural experimental condition created by the pandemic. By analyzing 5 years (2016–2020) data of aerosols and performing a radiative transfer calculation, we found that columnar and near-surface aerosol loadings decreased, leading to reductions in radiative cooling at the surface and top of the atmosphere and atmospheric warming during lockdown period. Further, satellite data analyses showed increases in cloud optical thickness and cloud-particle effective radius and decrease in lower tropospheric air temperature during lockdown period. These results indicate critical influences of COVID-19 lockdown on regional climate and water cycle over Indo-Gangetic Plain, emphasizing need for further studies from modeling perspectives.

P Khatri↗

Decoupling the Effects of Anthropogenic Emission Reductions from the Meteorology and Natural Emissions in TROPOMI NO 2 Retrievals During the 2020 COVID-19 Lockdowns

Satellite measurements during the COVID-19 lockdowns that began in 2020 revealed unprecedented reductions in NO 2 tropospheric vertical column densities (VCD). These reductions have largely been attributed to reduced anthropogenic emissions associated with abrupt decreases in road traffic and other power consuming business activities. Although decreased emissions tended to be the main contributor to the observed NO 2 VCD reduction, meteorological variability also played a role. Whereas the observed VCD changes were predominantly negative in places where public health policies were strictly enforced, meteorology had both positive and negative effects over short time intervals. Here, we present results from a global study of the NO 2 reductions aimed at disentangling the meteorological and natural emission variability from the anthropogenic emissions over the world’s most populated megacities. For this study, NASA’s TROPOMI NO 2 algorithm was used in conjunction with the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical transport model to separate the contributions due emissions and meteorology. A priori NO 2 profiles were generated from two GMI simulations performed for 2020 at a resolution of 0.25° longitude x 0.25° latitude. The first simulation used updated, COVID-impacted NOX emissions based on Forster et al. (2020), while the second simulation used the 2019 emissions with the 2020 meteorology, referred to here as 2020BAU. The 2020BAU data set allowed for the decoupling of the emission component from the meteorology. When compared to the same period in 2019, NO 2 column amounts during the lockdowns were reduced in 35 out of 36 cities. While reduced emissions contributed most to the observed total change in NO 2 during the lockdowns, the effects of meteorology were significant, ranging between 40% (Chennai) and 15% (Beijing). In China, an increase in NO 2 levels due to meteorology were observed in five out of the seven cities considered in the study. Use of different a-priori NO 2 profiles from the two simulations in our TROPOMI retrievals allowed for a determination of retrieval errors that ranged from -1.7% to -11.0%. We used the quality assurance flag > 0.75 to select the highest quality scenes in the study period. Using the GMI, we estimated the sampling biases to be in the range -11% to 10% of the total change for the cities in our study.

Brad Fisher↗