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At least 217 records · Page 12

Process Design and Techno-Economic Analysis of the Modular Staged Pressurized Oxy-Combustion (SPOC) Power Plant for Biomass

This work describes the process design and techno-economic analysis (TEA) of the modular stage pressurized oxy-combustion (SPOC) power plant for biomass firing and coal-biomass co-firing. The SPOC process was modelled using Aspen Plus®, and largely based on a previous model designed by this group for SPOC coal firing. To enable comparison with current National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Bio-Energy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) studies, a 550 MWe SPOC power plant with a supercritical Rankine cycle (241 bar, 593°C, and 593°C), and 90% carbon capture was modeled, and hybrid poplar biomass was chosen. Two cases were evaluated, namely 100% biomass (carbon negative) and 25% biomass co-firing (carbon neutral), and the 100% Powder River Basin coal firing case was chosen for comparison purposes. In the SPOC process, oxygen is produced via a cryogenic air separation unit (ASU) and the heat generated from the compression of air is integrated into the steam cycle and utilized for boiler feed water regeneration. Unique to the SPOC process, the boilers are arranged in a series-parallel configuration, with minimized flue gas recirculation. The flue gas is cooled and scrubbed in the direct-contact cooler (DCC) column, and the water leaving the bottom of the DCC is at a sufficiently high temperature that it can be used for boiler feed water heating, improving plant thermal efficiency. The SPOC efficiencies were above the BECCS cases with capture, and no efficiency penalty on the SPOC plant was observed with an increase of biomass in the mix mostly due to the higher oxygen content in biomass that resulted in lower oxygen requirement from the ASU, and the higher moisture in biomass that due to the key benefit of the SPOC process can be partially recovered as latent heat.

Magalhaes, Duarte↗

Quantifying atmospheric carbon removal at pulp and paper mills: a life cycle assessment across system boundaries

The pulp and paper industry is a promising yet underexplored platform for large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) due to its use of biogenic feedstocks and production of concentrated CO 2 emissions from point sources. This study presents the first comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) of retrofitting an amine-based carbon capture and storage (CCS) system into a representative virgin kraft pulp and paper mill in the Southeastern U.S. We evaluate carbon removal across five system configurations, applying both static and dynamic LCA methods under multiple functional units: CO 2 captured, biomass input, and paper output. Results show that CCS retrofits can convert a conventional mill from a net emitter into a net carbon sink, with total removal efficiencies from 17% to 92% (metric tonnes of CO 2 removed per metric tonne of CO 2 available for removal under selected boundary conditions). When carbon removal is normalized to the quantity of biogenic CO 2 captured—a narrow, gate-to-gate system boundary that considers only CCS facility emissions—removal efficiencies reached as high as 92%. The use of such narrow boundaries aligns with precedents in traditional LCA methodology, where gate-to-gate assessments are commonly applied to isolate process-level performance and allocate emissions accordingly, providing a consistent basis for comparison across technologies. Under broader cradle-to-grave boundaries—which begin tracking carbon at the point of its physical removal from the atmosphere via photosynthesis in the forest, and extend to include upstream forest operations, mill-wide emissions, and downstream product decomposition—efficiencies declined, ranging from 17% to 46% under static assumptions and dropping to 12% when accounting for dynamic biogenic carbon fluxes over time. These results underscore how system boundary definitions influence reported outcomes, while also illustrating the complementary roles of narrow and broad perspectives for different decision-making contexts.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Systems Analysis of Biomass and Coal Co-firing Power Plants with Deep Carbon Capture Toward Net-zero Emissions

Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.

Biomass Co-firing↗

The role of the iron and steel sector in achieving net zero U.S. CO 2 emissions by 2050

The U.S. steel sector is a hard-to-abate sector because of its heavy dependence on fossil fuels and its high capital requirements. In 2015, the sector was one of the major carbon emitters, contributing 10 % of the U.S. industrial CO 2 emissions. The ability to decarbonize the U.S. iron and steel sector directly affects the ability of the U.S. to achieve economy-wide net zero CO 2 by 2050. In this paper, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to analyze different U.S. steel sector decarbonization pathways under varying technology, policy, and demand futures. These pathways provide insights on how various low-carbon steelmaking technologies such as those using carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen, or scrap could help reduce U.S. steel emissions by mid-century. In our primary decarbonization pathway, we find that nearly all of the conventional fossil-based steelmaking capacity is fully integrated with CCS by 2050. However, without CCS availability, almost all of the conventional fossil-based steelmaking is phased-out by 2050 and is replaced by hydrogen-based production. Scrap-based production continues to remain vital across both of these decarbonization pathways. Furthermore, we find that demand reduction could help reduce the required levels of CCS and hydrogen-based production in the decarbonization pathways. Implementation of advanced energy efficiency measures could help substantially reduce the sector's energy usage. Finally, we observe that addressing the embodied carbon transfer associated with steel imports will be crucial for fully decarbonizing the U.S. steel sector.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Uinta Basin CarbonSAFE II: Storage Complex Feasibility (Final Report)

The primary objective of this CarbonSAFE Phase II project was to establish the technical and commercial feasibility of a commercial-scale CO 2 geological storage complex for Deseret Power Electric Cooperative Bonanza Power Plant and other CO 2 sources in the northeast Uinta Basin, Utah, with the goal to securely store at least 50 million metric tons of captured CO 2 and accelerate CO 2 capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) deployment. The project team established high-potential technical and commercial feasibility for a storage site within the east Uinta Basin (Utah), in the Cretaceous sandstones (Frontier, Dakota, and Buckhorn), Entrada Sandstone, Nugget Sandstone, and/or Weber Sandstone southwest of the Bonanza coal-fired power plant. This project collected and analyzed state-of-the-art data to characterize the storage complex consistent with Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) permitting standards. The team conducted extensive analog studies, outcrop mapping, and data sampling, which largely contributed to understanding the subsurface lithology and facies. Existing data were obtained and assessed from Utah Division of Oil, Gas, and Mining (DOGM), Utah Geological Survey (UGS), Colorado Geological Survey (CGS), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and EPA. These data were analyzed using state-of-the-art CCUS technologies for Societal Considerations, Site Characterization, Modeling and Simulations, Risk Assessment, Management and Monitoring, potential Underground Injection Control (UIC) Class VI Well Permitting, and Technical/Economic Feasibility. Through these high-resolution data collection and feasibility studies, this project was expected to provide a reference for initiating Underground Injection Control (UIC) and other commercial-scale geological storage permitting processes in the Western United States, ultimately contributing to the nation's decarbonization goals through low-risk, cost-effective commercial-scale carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) projects.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Large-scale spatially explicit analysis of carbon capture at cellulosic biorefineries

The large-scale production of cellulosic biofuels would involve spatially distributed systems including biomass fields, logistics networks and biorefineries. Better understanding of the interactions between landscape-related decisions and the design of biorefineries with carbon capture and storage (CCS) in a supply chain context is needed to enable efficient systems. Here we analyse the cost and greenhouse gas mitigation potential for cellulosic biofuel supply chains in the US Midwest using realistic spatially explicit land availability and crop productivity data and consider fuel conversion technologies with detailed CCS design for their associated CO 2 streams. Optimization methods identify trade-offs and design strategies leading to systems with attractive environmental and economic performance. Strategic and operational decisions depend on underlying spatial features and are sensitive to biofuel demand and CCS incentives. US CCS incentives neglect to motivate greenhouse gas mitigation from all supply chain emission sources, which leverage spatial interactions between CCS, electricity prices and the biomass landscape.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Life-cycle analysis of hydrogen production from water electrolyzers

The United States' focus on decarbonization has spawned interest among policymakers in deploying water electrolysis technology for clean hydrogen production. However, water electrolyzers also raise concerns regarding their substantial use of carbon-intensive materials. Here, we conduct a comprehensive life-cycle analysis (LCA) of three prominent water electrolyzer technologies to investigate the environmental implications of their manufacturing and life cycles under different energy sources. All electrolyzer technologies employing low-carbon energy (nuclear, solar, or wind) exhibit life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 0.3-2.4 kg-CO 2-eq /kg-H 2 . This is significantly lower than the corresponding GHG emissions for hydrogen production via both conventional steam methane reforming and alternative autothermal reforming with carbon capture and storage (by > 50%). The well-to-gate GHG emissions of low-carbon electrolyzers (0-0.36 kg-CO 2-eq / kg-H 2 ) qualify for Tier I of the production tax credit in the U.S.' Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, indicating their suitability for producing decarbonized hydrogen under this program.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage technology has significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the impact of climate change, particularly in hard-to-decarbonize industrial and commercial sectors. Unless utilization or storage occurs at the same location as carbon capture, which is rare, carbon must be transported from a point source to a utilization or storage site. Pipelines offer significant advantages for large-scale transportation of carbon dioxide over other methods. While studies show that reaching net-zero carbon emissions in the United States by 2050 will require between 29,000 and 66,000 miles of carbon pipelines, the U.S. had deployed fewer than 6,000 miles of carbon pipelines by 2022. Although closing this gap is important to achieving low-carbon goals, carbon pipelines operate in a complex and uncertain local, state and federal regulatory landscape and face public concerns about safety and siting. This report covers numerous regulatory issues surrounding carbon pipeline development, including the current narrow federal definition of carbon dioxide and the considerable variation in state and local governments’ laws and regulations. The report serves as a primer for regulators and stakeholders who seek to better understand the regulatory challenges and opportunities facing this critical infrastructure

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Impact of organic solutes on capillary phenomena in water-CO2-quartz systems

Hypothesis: The migration of supercritical CO2 (scCO2) injected into underground reservoirs as part of carbon capture and storage is influenced by organic contamination affecting mineral wettability. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of relevant systems that incorporate representative organic solutes allow detailed investigation of changes in fundamental interfacial and capillary properties. Experiments: We use MD simulations to explore the effects of four organic solutes (quinoline, decanoic acid, coronene, sorgoleone) on the wettability of quartz by water in the presence of scCO2. We examine the impacts of polar, alkyl, and aromatic moieties as well as fluid flow velocity at elevated temperatures and pressures. Findings: Organic molecules accumulate at the water-CO2 interface, where they distribute according to their size and functional groups. Certain organics penetrate the adsorbed water film at the quartz-CO2 interface, revealing two modes of hydrogen bonding between polar organic functional group, water, and quartz surface –OH groups. Interfacial energies and contact angles are minimally impacted by organic adsorption at the water-CO2 interface, possibly due to simultaneous CO2 desorption. Non- equilibrium MD simulations reveal that flow-induced redistribution of organic compounds modulates the radii of curvature of the advancing and receding water-CO2 interfaces. Our results indicate that organic adsorption on water surfaces is likely ubiquitous during multi-phase flow in soils and sedimen- tary rocks, with implications for the mobilization and transport of organic compounds.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Energy-Community-Geo-Database

Fundamental to understanding evolving infrastructure and technology is understanding the drivers for energy communities that affect where and how infrastructure is placed and used. An Energy Community Geo Database aligned to carbon storage systems will aid stakeholders in decision making around key future infrastructure (e.g., CCS injection locations) placement while helping contextualize these analyses against past and present-day social and environmental attributes. Much of the data required to support analyses are available from authoritative, largely governmental sources, but at present are disparate and require time-consuming acquisition, integration, and upkeep for currency. The CCS-EC-GB v2.0 integrates datasets from various federal agencies and authoritative sources to aid stakeholders and decision makers of the social and environmental factors that might impact the viability of CCS and energy related project implementation. There are 5 categories in the CCS-EC-GB v2 database. Most of the layers within each category have been updated in this version. As compared to the old database, there is 1 new category in the CCS-EC-GB v2 database: infrastructure. This is an evolving project and application will be updated periodically with new datasets and information. Notes for consideration: This database/web map will be updated with additional as new data and information becomes available and has been processed, reviewed, and approved for release. Additional state and federal entity data are planned to be integrated and included in future revisions. Summary layers provided in this application are derived from proprietary layers and do not always contain key features (age, status, or TVD) and therefore might not be shown when data are queried for those features.

CCS,Carbon capture and storage,Carbon storage,U.S.↗

Flexible FlueCO2

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reductions remain a significant challenge on the path to clean energy. There are increasing legislative, social, and environmental factors motivating CO2 emissions reduction from power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS in natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants is critical to achieve a net-zero carbon electricity grid. Enhanced 45Q tax credits provide new incentives, but currently available technologies are unable to profitably operate in grids with deep variable renewable penetration which require flexible NGCC operation. Luna Labs has developed the FlueCO2 membrane to enable a profitable NGCC-CCS process. The FlueCO2 membrane couples steam transport across the membrane to CO2 transport in the opposite direction, enabling high capture efficiencies and low energy costs even at low CO2 concentrations. The dual-phase membrane can operate in the range of typical flue gas temperatures and pressures and does not require temperature or pressure cycling. Luna Labs’ FlueCO2 technology enables flexible and profitable operation of NGCC plants with lower capital investment and impact on electricity prices. In this Phase 1 project, Luna Labs utilized experimental testing, modeling, process simulation, and standardized costing methodologies to evaluate the techno-economic value of a 650 MW greenfield NGCC plant with FlueCO2 (NGCC-FlueCO2). Key design requirements for operation were established and plant performance under load-leveling conditions was validated through computational fluid dynamics and process modeling. Luna Labs developed a dynamic modeling tool which modeled plant operational modes across a variety of tax structures and electricity pricing scenarios to project the overall Net Present Value (NPV) of the NGCC-FlueCO2. FlueCO2 minimizes the impact of CCS integration on plant operation by integrating directly into the NGCC heat recovery steam generator (HRSG). By tapping into the plant’s low-pressure (LP) steam, operators can divert LP steam to the greenfield NGCC and/or CCS process in response to dynamic markets. Since FlueCO2 will not significantly affect HRSG (or NGCC) operation, CCS only turns off during peak power demand (>$250/MWh). Under baseload conditions, FlueCO2 lowers the capital (37%), energy (36%) and carbon capture (<$40/tonne) costs and can increase the overall plant lifetime NPV by approximately ~$1B in comparison with NGCC solvent-based capture reference cases (NETL Case 31B). Luna Labs has shared its costing tools with several interested partners and customers, which follows a generalizable approach to costing analysis.

Kelly, Jesse↗

Carbon Utilization and Storage Partnership of the Western United States

This technical report documents research conducted under DOE Award No. DE-FE0031837 focused on evaluating the feasibility of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) systems in the central and western United States. The project integrated geologic characterization, reservoir simulation, infrastructure modeling, and economic analysis to assess CO₂ storage potential near industrial sources and develop strategies for transport and sequestration. The work included subsurface modeling, risk assessment, monitoring and verification (MRV) planning, and evaluation of regulatory pathways such as EPA Underground Injection Control (UIC) Class VI permitting and IRS 45Q tax credit eligibility. Results demonstrate the viability of multiple storage approaches, including saline formations, enhanced coalbed methane recovery, and basalt mineralization, supported by data-driven workflows and regional analyses. The project also produced permitting templates, technology transfer activities, and stakeholder engagement efforts to support deployment readiness. These findings contribute to the development of scalable, economically viable CCUS systems and provide a repeatable framework for future carbon management projects.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Southeast Regional CO 2 Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership (SECARB-USA): Regional Commercialization Plan (Final): Work Products 4.4.b (Regional Commercialization Plan) & 4.3 (Socioeconomic Impacts of CCUS and Workforce Readiness)

Commercialization of carbon capture and storage (CCS) within the SECARB-USA region is scaling up and will continue as governments and private companies expand on current decarbonization efforts. The Inflation Reduction Act (2022) enhanced 45Q tax credits beyond the 2018 Bipartisan Budget Act levels by incentivizing previously uneconomic projects to develop CCS plans and infrastructure. Additionally, the continued interest and support for CCS mitigates the relative risk of commercial-scale projects that are seeking long-term viability to develop capture facilities to accommodate their emissions reduction goals. This multifaceted Commercialization Plan provides an overview of the current status and potential for CCS in the Southeast and the pathways to achieve emissions reduction goals in the region by 2050. Specifically, the study addresses: • The current status of CCS activities in the SECARB region, • Assessment of buildout pathways for CCS projects and carbon transport infrastructure development opportunities, • Estimation of CCS job creation and economic impacts, and • The social justice considerations and public benefits associated with CCS activities in the SECARB-USA region.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Resolving the Chemical Formula of Nesquehonite via NMR Crystallography, DFT Computation, and Complementary Neutron Diffraction

Nesquehonite is a magnesium carbonate mineral relevant to carbon sequestration envisioned for carbon capture and storage of CO 2 . Its chemical formula remains controversial today, assigned as either a hydrated magnesium carbonate [MgCO 3 · 3H 2 O], or a hydroxy- hydrated- magnesium bicarbonate [Mg(HCO 3 )OH · 2H 2 O]. Here, the resolution of this controversy is central to understanding this material‘s thermodynamic, phase, and chemical behavior. In an NMR crystallography study, using rotational-echo double-resonance 13 C{ 1 H} (REDOR), 13 C- 1 H distances are determined with precision, and the combination of 13 C static NMR lineshapes and density functional theory (DFT) calculations are used to model different H atomic coordinates. [MgCO 3 · 3H 2 O] is found to be accurate, and evidence from neutron powder diffraction bolsters these assignments. Refined H positions can help understand how H-bonding stabilizes this structure against dehydration to MgCO 3 . More broadly, these results illustrate the power of NMR crystallography as a technique for resolving questions where X-ray diffraction is inconclusive.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Abstract for CRADA between NETL and Louisiana State University

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and Louisiana State University (PARTICIPANT) will collaborate in developing and testing distributed optical fiber CO 2 sensors for CO 2 storage site monitoring. Safe and reliable monitoring of CO 2 storage sites and transport infrastructure is critical for ensuring the long-term effectiveness and integrity of carbon capture and storage (CCS). In this project, the objective is to develop a novel optical fiber-based distributed CO 2 sensor for long-term monitoring of CCS sites and CO 2 pipelines and also implement machine learning to automate leak and structural anomaly detection. This effort aligns with NETL’s mission in reliable and sustainable energy and decarbonization.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels

Biofuel and bioenergy systems are integral to most climate stabilization scenarios for displacement of transport sector fossil fuel use and for producing negative emissions via carbon capture and storage (CCS). However, the net greenhouse gas mitigation benefit of such pathways is controversial due to concerns around ecosystem carbon losses from land use change and foregone sequestration benefits from alternative land uses. Here, we couple bottom-up ecosystem simulation with models of cellulosic biofuel production and CCS in order to track ecosystem and supply chain carbon flows for current and future biofuel systems, with comparison to competing land-based biological mitigation schemes. Analyzing three contrasting US case study sites, we show that on land transitioning out of crops or pasture, switchgrass cultivation for cellulosic ethanol production has per-hectare mitigation potential comparable to reforestation and severalfold greater than grassland restoration. In contrast, harvesting and converting existing secondary forest at those sites incurs large initial carbon debt requiring long payback periods. We also highlight how plausible future improvements in energy crop yields and biorefining technology together with CCS would achieve mitigation potential 4 and 15 times greater than forest and grassland restoration, respectively. Finally, we show that recent estimates of induced land use change are small relative to the opportunities for improving system performance that we quantify here. While climate and other ecosystem service benefits cannot be taken for granted from cellulosic biofuel deployment, our scenarios illustrate how conventional and carbon-negative biofuel systems could make a near-term, robust, and distinctive contribution to the climate challenge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗