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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Isolating the effect of biomass burning aerosol emissions on 20th century hydroclimate in South America and Southeast Asia

Abstract Biomass burning is a significant source of aerosol emissions in some regions and has a considerable impact on regional climate. Earth system model simulations indicate that increased biomass burning aerosol emissions contributed to statistically significant decreases in tropical precipitation over the 20th century. In this study, we use the Community Earth System Model version 1 Large Ensemble (CESM1-LENS) experiment to evaluate the mechanisms by which biomass burning aerosol contributed to decreased tropical precipitation, with a focus on South America and Southeast Asia. We analyze the all-but-one forcing simulations in which biomass burning aerosol emissions are held constant while other forcings (e.g., greenhouse gas concentrations) vary throughout the 20th century. This allows us to isolate the influence of biomass burning aerosol on processes that contribute to decreasing precipitation, including cloud microphysics, the radiative effects of absorbing aerosol particles, and alterations in regional circulation. We also show that the 20th century reduction in precipitation identified in the CESM1-LENS historical and biomass burning experiments is consistent across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models with interactive aerosol schemes and the CESM2 single-forcing experiment. Our results demonstrate that higher concentrations of biomass burning aerosol increases the quantity of cloud condensation nuclei and cloud droplets, limiting cloud droplet size and precipitation formation. Additionally, absorbing aerosols (e.g., black carbon) contribute to a warmer cloud layer, which promotes cloud evaporation, increases atmospheric stability, and alters regional circulation patterns. Corresponding convectively coupled circulation responses, particularly over the tropical Andes, contribute to further reducing the flow of moisture and moisture convergence over tropical land. These results elucidate the processes that affect the water cycle in regions prone to biomass burning and inform our understanding of how future changes in aerosol emissions may impact tropical precipitation over the 21st century.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Extreme Weather Impacts on Utility-scale Photovoltaic Plant Performance in the United States

The global energy system is undergoing significant changes, including a shift in energy generating technologies to more renewable energy sources. However, the dependence of renewable energy sources on local environmental conditions could also increase disruptions in service through exposures to compound, extreme weather events. By fusing three diverse datasets (operations and maintenance tickets, weather data, and production data), this analysis presents a novel methodology to identify and evaluate performance impacts arising from extreme weather events across diverse geographical regions. Text analysis of maintenance tickets identified snow, hurricanes, and storms as the leading extreme weather events affecting photovoltaic plants in the United States. Statistical techniques and machine learning were then implemented to identify the magnitude and variability of these extreme weather impacts on site performance. Impacts varied between event and non-event days, with snow events causing the greatest reductions in performance (54.5%), followed by hurricanes (12.6%) and storms (1.1%). Machine learning analysis identified key features in determining if a day is categorized as low performing, such as low irradiance, geographic location, weather features, and site size. The analysis improves our understanding of compound, extreme weather event impacts on photovoltaic systems, which can inform planning activities, especially as the industry continues to expand into new geographic and climatic regions around the world.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Impact of Crop Rotation and Spatially Varying Crop Parameters in the E3SM Land Model (ELMv2)

Abstract Earth System Models (ESMs) are increasingly representing agriculture due to its impact on biogeochemical cycles, local and regional climate, and fundamental importance for human society. Realistic large scale simulations may require spatially varying crop parameters that capture crop growth at various scales and among different cultivars, as well as common crop management practices, but their importance is uncertain, and they are often not represented in ESMs. In this study, we examine the impact of using constant versus spatially varying crop parameters using a novel, realistic crop rotation scenario in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model version 2 (ELMv2). We implemented crop rotation by using ELMv2's dynamic land unit capability, and then calibrated and validated the model against observations collected at three AmeriFlux sites in the US Midwest with corn soybean rotation. The calibrated model closely captured the magnitude and observed seasonality of carbon and energy fluxes across crops and sites. We performed regional simulations for the US Midwest using the calibrated model and found that spatially varying only a few crop parameters across the region, as opposed to using constant parameters, had a large impact, with the carbon fluxes and energy fluxes both varying by up to 40%. These results imply that large scale ESM simulations using spatially invariant crop parameters may result in biased energy and carbon fluxes estimation from agricultural land, and underline the importance of improving human‐earth systems interactions in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Joint Modeling of Wind Speed and Wind Direction Through a Conditional Approach

Atmospheric near surface wind speed and wind direction play an important role in many applications, ranging from air quality modeling, building design, wind turbine placement to climate change research. It is therefore crucial to accurately estimate the joint probability distribution of wind speed and direction. In this work, we develop a conditional approach to model these two variables, where the joint distribution is decomposed into the product of the marginal distribution of wind direction and the conditional distribution of wind speed given wind direction. To accommodate the circular nature of wind direction, a von Mises mixture model is used; the conditional wind speed distribution is modeled as a directional dependent Weibull distribution via a two-stage estimation procedure, consisting of a directional binned Weibull parameter estimation, followed by a harmonic regression to estimate the dependence of the Weibull parameters on wind direction. A Monte Carlo simulation study indicates that our method outperforms two other approaches in estimation efficiency: one that utilizes periodic spline quantile regression and another that generates data from the commonly used Abe-Ley distribution for cylindrical data. We illustrate our method by using the output from a regional climate model to investigate how the joint distribution of wind speed and direction may change under some future climate scenarios. Our method indicates significant changes in the variation of wind speed with respect to some directions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the additivity of climate responses to the volcanic and solar forcing in the early 19th century

The early 19th century was the coldest period over the past 500 years, when strong tropical volcanic events and a solar minimum coincided. The 1809 unidentified eruption and the 1815 Tambora eruption happened consecutively during the Dalton minimum of solar irradiance; however, the relative role of the two forcing (volcano and solar) agents is still unclear. In this study, we examine the responses from a set of early 19th century simulations with combined and separated volcanic and solar forcing agents, as suggested in the protocol for the past1000 experiment of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project – Phase 4 (PMIP4). From 20-member ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM1.2-LR), we find that the volcano- and solar-induced surface cooling is additive in the global mean/large scale, regardless of combining or separating the forcing agents. The two solar reconstructions (SATIRE (Spectral and Total Irradiance REconstruction-Millennia model) and PMOD (Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos)) contribute to a cooling before and after 1815 of ~0.05 and ~0.15 K monthly average near-surface air cooling, respectively, indicating a limited solar contribution to the early 19th century cold period. The volcanic events provide the main cooling contributions, inducing a surface cooling that peaks at ~0.82 K for the 1809 event and ~1.35 K for Tambora. After the Tambora eruption, the temperature in most regions increases toward climatology largely within 5 years, along with the reduction of volcanic forcing. In the northern extratropical oceans, the temperature increases slowly at a constant rate until 1830, which is related to the reduction of seasonality and the concurrent changes in Arctic sea-ice extent. The albedo feedback of Arctic sea ice is found to be the main contributor to the Arctic amplification of the cooling signal. Several non-additive responses to solar and volcanic forcing happen on regional scales. In the atmosphere, the stratospheric polar vortex tends to strengthen when combining both volcano and solar forcing, even though the two forcing agents separately induce opposite-sign changes in stratospheric temperatures and zonal winds. In the ocean, when combining the two forcings, additional surface cold water propagates to the northern extratropics from the additional solar cooling in the tropics, which results in regional cooling along the propagation. Overall, this study not only quantifies the surface responses from combinations of the volcano and solar forcing, but also highlights the components that cannot be simply added from the responses of the individual forcing agents, indicating that a relatively small forcing agent (such as solar in early 19th century) can impact the response from the large forcing (such as the 1815 Tambora eruption) when considering regional climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impacts of phase state and water content on secondary organic aerosol formation and partitioning (Final Technical Report)

Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) account for a major fraction of particulate matter in the atmosphere, affecting climate, air quality, and public health. SOA formation and evolution are highly complex processes involving both chemical reactions and transport of molecules in air, at particle surfaces, and within particles. The state of the matter, or “phase state,” comprising SOA can vary from a liquid, over an amorphous semi-solid, to a glassy solid, depending on chemical composition, water content, relative humidity (RH), and temperature. The occurrence of glassy and amorphous semi-solid states can pose limitations on the rate of transport of molecules, affecting gas-particle interactions and challenging the treatment of SOA in atmospheric models. The objective of this project was to improve fundamental understanding of the interplay of the phase state of particles and water content on the evolution of SOA formation. We have developed a method to estimate the glass transition temperature (T g ) of organic compounds to predict the phase state and viscosity of SOA. This method has been applied to high resolution mass spectrometry data of various types of SOA, achieving a good agreement with viscosity measurements. In addition, the viscosity estimation method was implemented into a regional model CMAQ to simulate diel and seasonal variations of SOA phase state over the U.S. Applying kinetic multilayer modeling, we analyzed laboratory experiments and ARM field measurements (e.g., HI-SCALE) on kinetic limitations of amine uptake. We have also conducted numerical simulations to estimate equilibration timescales of SOA partitioning. Overall, we have evaluated the impacts of phase state and water content on SOA lifecycle that should contribute to reducing the uncertainty of SOA representation in regional climate and air quality predictions. The project has yielded 17 publications, in which DE-SC0018349 is explicitly acknowledged. Please see the list of publications as below, followed by summary of research activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

U-Surf: a global 1 km spatially continuous urban surface property dataset for kilometer-scale urban-resolving Earth system modeling

High-resolution urban climate modeling has faced substantial challenges due to the absence of a globally consistent, spatially continuous, and accurate dataset to represent the spatial heterogeneity of urban surfaces and their biophysical properties. This deficiency has long obstructed the development of urban-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) and ultra-high-resolution urban climate modeling, over large domains. Here, we present U-Surf, a first-of-its-kind 1 km resolution present-day (circa 2020) global continuous urban surface parameter dataset. Using the urban canopy model (UCM) in the Community Earth System Model as a base model for satisfying dataset requirements, U-Surf leverages the latest advances in remote sensing, machine learning, and cloud computing to provide the most relevant urban surface biophysical parameters, including radiative, morphological, and thermal properties, for UCMs at the facet and canopy level. Generated using a systematically unified workflow, U-Surf ensures internal consistency among key parameters, making it the first globally coherent urban canopy surface dataset. U-Surf significantly improves the representation of the urban land heterogeneity both within and across cities globally; provides essential, high-fidelity surface biophysical constraints to urban-resolving ESMs; enables detailed city-to-city comparisons across the globe; and supports next-generation kilometer-resolution Earth system modeling across scales. U-Surf parameters can be easily converted or adapted to various types of UCMs, such as those embedded in weather and regional climate models, as well as air quality models. The fundamental urban surface constraints provided by U-Surf can also be used as features for machine learning models and can have other broad-scale applications for socioeconomic, public health, and urban planning contexts. We expect U-Surf to advance the research frontier of urban system science, climate-sensitive urban design, and coupled human–Earth systems in the future. The dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11247598 (Cheng et al., 2024).

Cheng, Yifan [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaig↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regional suitability of heating tower heat pumps based on technical and economic performance maps

The heating tower heat pump (HTHP) technology is evolving rapidly due to its high performance in summer and frost-free characteristic in winter. However, lacking comprehensive comparisons between the HTHP and conventional methods, such as air-source heat pump (ASHP), and chiller and boiler, greatly limits its applications. To address this problem, this paper carries out technological and economic performance analyses of the three systems in 353 locations over China by the processes of building load calculation, system sizing, annual simulation, performance comparison, and demonstration. Energy saving principle and potential of the HTHP are presented and explained. Based on that, economic performance comparison is conducted by considering the energy conversion efficiency and prices. The results show that the HTHP has advantage over the ASHP in most locations in China. The improvement in annual coefficient of performance (COP) is about 10% to 20%. For the locations in southwest China like Chongqing, the improvement is also less than 10% due to the large regeneration penalization in winter and small difference between dry-bulb and wet-bulb temperature in summer. The annual COP of the HTHP is 10% to 23% higher than that of the chiller and boiler in hot summer and cold winter zone, and cold zone. However, the HTHP shows no advantage over the chiller and boiler in severe cold zone because of the low efficiency of heat pump in winter, neither in hot summer and warm winter zone due to the small heating load. Based on the results, technical and economic performance maps are developed to guide the application of the HTHP in different climate regions.

heating tower heat pump, air-source heat pump, chi↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing building resilience in cold climates: Integrating heat pump technologies with renewable energy

As electrification advances and Cold Climate Heat Pump technology progresses, ensuring grid stability becomes increasingly critical for effective heating in cold climates. However, natural disasters, especially during winter, pose significant threats to grid stability, impacting the reliability of air-source heat pumps. Despite these challenges, the integration of renewable energy sources and storage solutions in heating systems has not been extensively studied within the context of resilience. Here, this paper delves into the literature on renewable-powered heat pumps to assess their potential in enhancing building resilience in U.S. cold climate zones, which are particularly susceptible to extreme weather and grid disruptions. By leveraging renewable sources—solar, geothermal, and water—in conjunction with heat pump technology and supported by thermal or battery storage, this approach aims to provide a dependable solution for maintaining indoor heating during grid failures. Our analysis begins with a review of various renewable energy sources suitable for heat pumps, followed by an exploration of their application in cold climate regions across the U.S., and discussions on potential integration strategies with heat pump systems. This study highlights the advantages and suitability of solar irradiance and geothermal resources, emphasizing the importance of tailored, site-specific assessments to maximize energy efficiency and resilience. Additionally, it outlines the economic and environmental considerations necessary for implementing such systems and identifies potential challenges and areas for future research to facilitate the broader integration of renewable energy in heating solutions for enhanced resilience.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre-industrial period (1850) to the end of the 21st century in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations for total column ozone (TCO), although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global mean TCO has increased from ∼ 300 DU in 1850 to ∼ 305 DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be ∼ 10 DU higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation under other Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In contrast to TCO, there is poorer agreement between the CMIP6 multi-model mean and observed lower stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios, with the CMIP6 multi-model mean underestimating observed water vapour mixing ratios by ∼ 0.5 ppmv at 70 hPa. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by ∼ 0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present-day period and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (∼ 2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Tropical lower stratospheric water vapour, and to a lesser extent TCO, shows large variations following explosive volcanic eruptions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geospatial assessment of the economic opportunity for reforestation in Maryland, USA

Afforestation and reforestation have the potential to provide effective climate mitigation through forest carbon sequestration. Strategic reforestation activities, which account for both carbon sequestration potential (CSP) and economic opportunity, can provide attractive options for policymakers who must manage competing social and environmental goals. In particular, forest carbon pricing can incentivize reforestation on private land, but this may require landholders to forego other profits. Here, we utilize an ambitious geospatial approach to quantify economic opportunities for reforestation in the state of Maryland (USA) based on high-resolution remoting sensing, ecosystem modeling, and economic analysis. Our results identify spatially-explicit areas of economic opportunity where the potential revenue from forest carbon outcompetes the expected profit of existing cropland at the hectare scale. Specifically, we find that under a baseline economic scenario of 20 dollars per ton of carbon (5% rental rate) and decadal average crop profitability, a transition to forest on agricultural land would be more profitable than 23.2% of cropland in Maryland under a 20-year land-use commitment. Accounting for variations in carbon and crop pricing, 5.5% to 55.4% of cropland would be immediately outcompeted by expected forest carbon revenue, with the potential for an additional 0.5% to 10.6% of outcompeted cropland within 20 years. Under the baseline economic scenario, an annual allocation of $5.8 million towards a carbon rental program could protect 6.93 Tg C (2.2% of the state’s total CSP) on reforested croplands. This moderate yearly cost is equal to 9.7% of Maryland’s average annual auction proceeds from participation in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (between 2014-2018), and 19.3% of the average annual subsidy payments for corn, soy, and wheat allocated over the same period. This methodological approach may be useful for state governments, not-for-profit organizations, or regional climate initiatives interested in identifying strategic areas for reforestation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projected changes in extreme rainfall and temperature events and possible implications for Cameroon's socio-economic sectors

Extreme events like flooding, droughts and heatwave are among the factors causing huge socio-economic losses to Cameroonians. Investigating the potential response of rainfall and temperature extremes to global warming is therefore critically needed for tailoring and adjusting the country's policies. Recent datasets have been developed for this purpose within the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) initiative, at ~25 km grid spacing. These regional climate models were used to dynamically downscaled four global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), under the optimistic and pessimistic representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. These models were employed in this study for characterizing the response of Cameroon's extreme precipitation and temperature events to global warming, using seven indices defined by the Expert Team on Cli mate Change Detection and Indices. Under global warming, the maximum number of consecutive dry (wet) days' is expected to increase (decrease). However, the annual total rainfall amount is expected to increase, mainly due to the intensification of very wet days and daily rainfall intensity. Furthermore, the temperature-based indices reveal an increase (decrease) in the total annual hot (cold) days, and overall, changes intensify with increased radiative forcing. The high-mitigated low-emission pathway RCP2.6 features attenuated changes, and even sometimes adapts to reverse the sign of changes. Designing reliable policies to limit the risks associated with the above changes is required, as their socio-economic consequences are likely to include food insecurity, heat-related illness, population impoverishment, price rises and market instability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recalibration of missing low-frequency variability and trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract Multi-decadal trends in the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are under-represented by coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), consistent with a lack of autocorrelation in their NAO index series. This study proposes and tests two simple “reddening” approaches for correcting this problem in simulated indices based on simple one parameter short-term (AR; Auto-Regressive order 1) and long-term (FD; Fractional-Difference) time series filters. Using CGCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the FD filter successfully improves the autocorrelation structure of the NAO, and in turn the simulation of extreme trends, while the AR filter is less successful. The 1963–1993 NAO trend is the maximum 31-year trend in the historical period. Raw CGCMs underestimate the likelihood of this trend by a factor of ten but this discrepancy is corrected after reddening. CMIP6 future projections show that long-term (2024–2094) NAO ensemble mean trends systematically increase with the magnitude of radiative forcing: -2.4 to 3.5 hPa/century for low-to-high forcing after reddening (more than double the range using raw output). The related likelihood of future maximum 31year trends comparable to 1963–1993 ranges from 3 to 7% whereas none of these CMIP6 projections simulate this without reddening. Near-term projections of the next 31 years (2024–2054) are less sensitive than long term trends to the future scenario, showing weak-to-no forced trend. However, reddening increases the ensemble range by 74% (to +/-1 standard deviation/decade), which could increase/decrease regional climate change signals in the Northern Hemisphere by magnitudes that are underestimated when using raw CGCM output.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Topographic Controls on the Distribution of Summer Monsoon Precipitation over South Asia

In this work, we use a high-resolution (9 km) one-way nested regional climate modeling framework to systematically evaluate individual and aggregate roles of various components of topography in the precipitation distribution during South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM). While it is not the arrival but the north-northwestward extent of summer monsoon precipitation that is regulated by the presence of elevated surfaces in South Asia, both the thermal and mechanical topographic forcing play a role. Topography not only provides mechanical uplifting and prevents dry air entrainment, it also helps regulate the strength of upper level anticyclone and tropical easterly jet, all of which are necessary to sustain a conducive environment for monsoon precipitation in the South Asian summer. In turn, precipitation feedbacks positively by accelerating the tropospheric diabatic warming through atmospheric latent heating and by maintaining the moisture supply through local recycling. Modifications in the topography, particularly the removal of the Tibetan Plateau, substantially modulates the moist flow in the lower troposphere and the anticyclonic circulation in the upper troposphere to an extent that the northern branch of SASM becomes substantially weaker. These changes give way to negative precipitation anomalies and eventually to an environment where the cycle of feedbacks that runs the process of monsoon progression over land becomes inefficient. The design of topographic modification experiments can influence precipitation response; therefore, we advise caution in the interpretation of these and previously reported results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Soybean fallow and nitrification inhibitors: Strategies to reduce N 2 O emission intensities and N losses in Australian sugarcane cropping systems

The Australian sugar industry is facing mounting pressure to reduce the nitrogen (N) losses and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions associated with N fertiliser use. Research has shown that N 2 O emissions from sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) cropping systems can be reduced with the use of fertilisers coated with nitrification inhibitors, or by sowing legume crops in the fallows between sugarcane crop cycles. However, the efficacy of these two N management strategies across different climatic zones is still unclear, as results from field studies have been contradictory. The objectives of this study were therefore to use the DayCent model to assess the long-term effects of the two strategies (separately or in combination) on N 2 O emissions, N losses and yields. The model was parameterised using data from eight field experiments (39 treatments) conducted across four of the five main districts of the Australian sugarcane industry. A series of long-term scenarios embracing a range of N fertiliser rates (0- 160 kg N ha -1 applied as urea), climatic regions (Tropics and Subtropics), soil textures (fine- and coarse-textured soils) and N-loss risk scenarios (crop fertilised well before or close to the on-set of the wet season) were tested for both N management strategies. Simulations identified that the combined use of soybean (Glycine max L.) fallows and N fertiliser coated with the 3,4-dimethylpyrazole phosphate (DMPP) nitrification inhibitor was the most effective strategy to maintain or even increase current yields while significantly reducing N 2 O and cumulative N (mainly due to nitrate) losses. When used alone, the soybean fallow strategy on average reduced N losses over the entire crop cycle by 29 % compared with current industry best practice. However, this strategy showed a limited capacity to reduce N 2 O emissions over the entire cane crop cycle (median: -3% compared with current industry best practice), or even increased them in scenarios at high-risk of N losses in the Tropics. The use of urea coated with DMPP alone allowed current fertiliser N rates to be reduced by 30 % without any substantial yield penalty. In environments prone to high N losses, DMPP urea abated overall N losses and N 2 O emissions by 41 % and 30 %, respectively. This was the first study to use such an extensive dataset to parameterise a biogeochemical model for yields, N 2 O emissions and N losses in sugarcane cropping systems. Finally, the findings will be instrumental in guiding future research and policies designed to improve the profitability and environmental sustainability of this industry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Intensification differentially affects the delivery of multiple ecosystem services in subtropical and temperate grasslands

Intensification, the process of intensifying land management to enhance agricultural goods, results in “intensive” pastures that are planted with productive grasses and fertilized. These intensive pastures provide essential ecosystem services, including forage production for livestock. Understanding the synergies and tradeoffs of pasture intensification on the delivery of services across climatic regions is crucial to shape policies and incentives for better management of natural resources. Here, we investigated how grassland intensification affects key components of provisioning (forage productivity and quality), supporting (plant diversity) and regulating services (CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes) by comparing these services between intensive versus extensive pastures in subtropical and temperate pastures in the USDA Long-term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) Network sites in Florida and Oklahoma, USA over multiple years. Our results suggest that grassland intensification led to a decrease in measured supporting and regulating services, but increased forage productivity in temperate pastures and forage digestibility in subtropical pastures. Intensification decreased the net CO 2 sink of subtropical pastures while it did not affect the sink capacity of temperate pastures; and it also increased environmental CH 4 emissions from subtropical pastures and reduced CH 4 uptake in temperate pastures. Intensification enhanced the global warming potential associated with C fluxes of pastures in both ecoregions. Our study demonstrates that comparisons of agroecosystems in contrasting ecoregions can reveal important drivers of ecosystem services and general or region-specific opportunities and solutions to maintaining agricultural production and reducing environmental footprints. Further LTAR network-scale comparisons of multiple ecosystem services across croplands and grazinglands intensively vs extensively managed are warranted to inform the sustainable intensification of agriculture within US and beyond. Our results highlight that achieving both food security and environmental stewardship will involve the conservation of less intensively managed pastures while adopting sustainable strategies in intensively managed pastures.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The impact of energy-efficiency upgrades and other distributed energy resources on a residential neighborhood-scale electrification retrofit

We report ambitious targets for carbon emissions reductions are highlighting new challenges for electrification strategies, leading to an increased focus on building load flexibility and energy management to complement the variability inherent in renewable energy generation. Over the next decade millions of existing homes could undergo electrification retrofits, and there is an urgent need to understand the potential impacts of electrifying major residential loads such as water and space heating on community load characteristics, resident energy bills, and the utility's distribution system. Behind-the-meter distributed energy resources (DERs), including efficiency measures, photovoltaics (PV), battery storage, managed electric vehicle (EV) charging, and controls such as home energy management systems (HEMS), can significantly alter a neighborhood's load profile and provide benefits to both the residents and the grid. We present a novel approach to characterizing the impact of a hypothetical neighborhood-scale residential retrofit program on individual homes' energy use profiles, associated utility bills, and the local distribution system. We modeled a mixed-fuel community of 30 single-family homes in Denver, Colorado, and compared the effects of retrofit scenarios ranging from conventional energy-efficiency upgrades to full electrification with and without more advanced DER technologies. We analyzed which packages of DERs most reliably enable demand flexibility in response to a time-of-use (TOU) rate for this and similar neighborhoods. Our buildings-to-grid co-simulation framework includes a generic secondary distribution feeder model to capture voltage profiles, transformer loading, and other grid impacts in each case. We also calculated the carbon emissions associated with energy use in the community. The methodology developed here can be broadly applied to community-scale beneficial electrification studies in other regions, climates, utility infrastructures, and building typologies to make specific, targeted recommendations based on quantified projections of energy demand in any given community. Our findings indicate that residential electrification can be achieved without negatively impacting the monthly utility bill, and that a combination of conventional energy-efficiency measures, PV, battery, controls, and managed EV charging to maximize a community's demand flexibility is a promising strategy. Adding DERs (especially PV) as part of efficient electrification produces much bigger savings than efficient electrification without DERs. A key barrier is that upgrades require upfront costs, and modest utility bill savings result in long payback periods.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗