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At least 217 records · Page 12

Impact of COVID-Global Shutdown on Earth's Radiation Budget

Climate is fueled by how much of the sun’s energy is absorbed by Earth. Changes in aerosol emissions have a direct impact how much solar energy is absorbed under clear-sky conditions, which occurs roughly one-third of the time globally. Aerosol emission changes can also indirectly influence clouds and further alter solar energy absorption. In this presentation, we examine the impact of the COVID-19 global shutdown on Earth’s radiation budget at global and regional scales and compare it with other changes that have had an influence on Earth's radiation budget during the past 20 years—including policy-related emission controls, wildfire events and changes in sea-ice extent in polar regions. We use a novel analysis technique together with data from NASA instruments on the Terra, Aqua and Aura satellites and reanalysis data from MERRA-2. We also compare results with state-of-the-art general circulation models that have been nudged to reanalysis data (winds, air temperature and surface 25 pressure) at all levels. Our preliminary results show that the largest COVID-19 impact occurs regionally over the East Asian Marginal Seas, just off the coast of China. We find a 30% reduction in aerosol optical depth according to the MODIS instrument, and an 8% reduction in reflected solar radiation according to the CERES radiation budget instrument. The climate model simulations show remarkable consistency with the observations and furthermore show no evidence of an indirect effect on cloud properties.

Norman G. Loeb↗

Future Pathways for Arctic Forest Fires

Wildfires are expected to become more common and more severe in the Arctic states due to climate change. Main cause for the fires is human activity, even in the boreal and Arctic forests. Therefore, activities such forest management and tourism, together with firefighting capacity and readiness, can have a significant impact on future wildfire risks and impacts. To assess the impacts of these factors we have created pathways for future wildfires up to 2050 for the Arctic states. We explore high and low fire activity and risk pathways for all the Arctic states and suggest most our best guess pathways for each state separately. The low activity and fire risk pathway assumes active fire suppression via population participation and official land management, efficient fuel treatments to reduce fire risk, and active firefighting. The high activity and fire risk pathway assumes the opposite due to lack of government and community response, with addition of lacking response to climate-driven changes to wildfire risks. In the Nordic countries, human ignition sources, such as timber extraction, tourism, summer cottages, and expanding wildland-urban intermix due to exurban growth may increase. In addition to these in Canada and Alaska, expansion of agriculture increases the likelihood of open burning of agricultural waste, increasing risk of the fire spreading to wildlands. Drier fuels due to climate change increase the risk of fires, and there is a growing risk of extreme heat conditions, creating favorable conditions for extreme wildfires from any ignition source. Throughout the Arctic lightning is expected to increase, increasing the risk of tundra (specifically grassland) fires, with potential to occur in hard-to-reach locations for firefighting. In short, policy actions and education play a crucial role in future wildfire management and adaptation.

Future↗

Economic incentives modify agricultural impacts of nuclear war

A nuclear war using less than 1% of the current global nuclear arsenal, which would inject 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere, could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and significant impacts on agricultural productivity and the economy. These effects would be most severe for the first five years after the nuclear war and may last for more than a decade. This paper calculates how food availability would change by employing the Environmental Impact and Sustainability Applied General Equilibrium model. Under a robust world trading system, global food availability would drop by a few percentage points. If the war would destabilize trade, it would magnify by several times the negative ramifications of land productivity shocks on food availability. If exporting countries redirect production to domestic consumption at the expense of importing countries, it would lead to the destabilization of international trade. The analysis suggests that economic models aiming to inform policymakers require both economic behavior analysis and biophysical drivers. Policy lessons derived from a crop model can be significantly nuanced when coupled with economic feedback derived from economic models. Through the impact on yield, farmers could shift production among crops and reallocate land use to maximize profits, showing the importance of general equilibrium effects such as product and input substitution and international trade. Although the global impact on corn and soybean production would be significant when just considering crop production, it could be considerably smaller under the economic model. However, this would be at the expense of other sectors, including livestock. In addition, the costs borne from disruptions to climate would vary significantly across regions, with significant adverse effects in high latitude regions. The severity of the shocks in the high-latitude areas would marginalize the farmers' product and input substitution ability.

Nuclear war↗

Extreme Water Deficit in Brazil Detected from Space

Extreme droughts have caused significant socioeconomic and environmental damage worldwide. In Brazil, ineffective energy development and water management policies have magnified the impacts of recent severe droughts, which include massive agricultural losses, water supply restrictions, and energy rationing. Spaceborne remote sensing data advance our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability of large-scale droughts and enhance the detection and monitoring of extreme water-related events. In this study, data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission are used to detect and quantify an extended major drought over eastern Brazil and provide estimates of impacted areas and region-specific water deficits. Two structural breakpoint detection methods were applied to time series of GRACE-based terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA), determining when two abrupt changes occurred. One, in particular, defines the beginning of the current drought. Using TWSA, a water loss rate of 26.1 cmyr21 over southeastern Brazil was detected from 2012 to 2015. Based on analysis of Global Land Data Assimilation System(GLDAS) outputs, the extreme drought is mostly related to lower-than-usual precipitation rates, resulting in high soil moisture depletion and lower-than-usual rates of evapotranspiration. A reduction of 2023 of precipitation over an extended period of 3 years is enough to raise serious water scarcity conditions in the country. Correlations between monthly time series of both grid-based TWSA and ground-based water storage measurements at 16 reservoirs located within southeastern Brazil varied from 0.42 to 0.82. Differences are mainly explained by reservoir sizes and proximity to the drought nucleus.

terrestrial↗

Characterizing Wildfires in Western US.: A Cloud-based Case Study for Interdisciplinary Research using NASA Resources

This presentation will demonstrate a case study of interdisciplinary research done in the Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud platform, in addition to in the local machine. We conduct data analysis next to data by leveraging various cloud-based data in NASA Earthdata Cloud, which are distributed by different missions/NASA Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs), and cloud computing resources at NASA. For instance, we directly access multiple datasets stored in the AWS Simple Storage Service (S3) buckets using a Python Jupyter notebook through a JupyterHub interface hosted in AWS (without having to download data), and conduct data analysis next to data in the cloud. We will also show how to share the research results following Open Source policy. This case study characterizes the change in wildfire events in the western United States during the past 20 years. In particular, we focus on the wildfires in California in 2021, one of the most severe wildfire years occurring in the most recent 20 years in California. We will analyze the possible causes of wildfires, such as drought conditions and climate variability, and examine the impacts of wildfires on air quality and atmospheric composition, and on land cover. We will examine the data distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), including aerosols and meteorological data from the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2), precipitation from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) and Global Precipitation Climate Project (GPCP), and aerosol index from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). We also utilize the data distributed by the Physical Oceanography (PO) DAAC, such as Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data from the Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST), and the data distributed by Land Processes (LP) DAAC, such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI).

Xiaohua Pan↗

NASA Earth Observations Informing Renewable Energy Management and Policy Decision Making

The NASA Applied Sciences Program partners with domestic and international governmental organizations, universities, and private entities to improve their decisions and assessments. These improvements are enabled by using the knowledge generated from research resulting from spacecraft observations and model predictions conducted by NASA and providing these as inputs to the decision support and scenario assessment tools used by partner organizations. The Program is divided into eight societal benefit areas, aligned in general with the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) themes. The Climate Application of the Applied Sciences Program has as one of its focuses, efforts to provide for improved decisions and assessments in the areas of renewable energy technologies, energy efficiency, and climate change impacts. The goals of the Applied Sciences Program are aligned with national initiatives such as the U.S. Climate Change Science and Technology Programs and with those of international organizations including the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) and the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). Activities within the Program are funded principally through proposals submitted in response to annual solicitations and reviewed by peers.

Eckman, Richard S.↗

From a lunar outpost to Mars - Science, policy and the U.S. Space Exploration Initiative

The technological developments required for the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) objectives are discussed in terms of scientific investigation and present U.S. space policy. The results of the 90-Day Study are listed which include explicit suggestions for the successful exploration of the moon and Mars. The Outreach/Synthesis program is described which provides four methods for eliciting ideas, technologies, and research venues for lunar and Martian missions. The results of the studies include 5 scientific objectives such as the relationship between the sun, planetary atmospheres, and climate. The protection of human life from potential extraterrestrial hazards such as radiation is also found to be a key objective of SEI as are the theoretical and practical issues of scientific research.

Pilcher, Carl B.↗

Tonlé Sap Food Security and Agriculture II: Evaluating Changes in Ecosystem Vitality and Freshwater Healthin the Tonlé Sap Basin using Remotely Sensed Data

The Tonlé Sap Lake and river basin in central Cambodia provide critical ecosystem services to the region, including fisheries, agricultural irrigation, hydropower, and biodiverse habitats. Deforestation, increased pumping for farming, and effects of climate change such as droughts and forest fires threaten the health of the lake and food security in the region. This project built upon the previous term through a partnership with Conservation International (CI), the Cambodian Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology, and the Tonlé Sap Authority to assess ecosystem vitality and implement CI’s Freshwater Health Index (FHI) tool, in an effort to prioritize resource expenditure and highlight areas of concern. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and related travel restrictions, partners had not been able to readily collect in situ data for the past year, which make up the majority of FHI inputs. To help fill this data gap, we developed a methodology for using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data to calculate groundwater storage depletion, and a Python Application Programming Interface for processing and formatting remotely-sensed data for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We then used SWAT to model nutrient flows and of phosphorous, nitrogen and suspended sediments amounts in the basin from October 2000 to December 2020. These outputs served as inputs for the FHI and provided policy makers with robust monitoring information to aid decision-making in the area and safeguard the lake’s vital fisheries and biodiversity.

Justine Spore↗

Management and Climate Contributions to Satellite-Derived Active Fire Trends in the Contiguous United States

Fires in croplands, plantations, and rangelands contribute significantly to fire emissions in the United States, yet are often overshadowed by wildland fires in efforts to develop inventories or estimate responses to climate change. Here we quantified decadal trends, interannual variability, and seasonality of Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations of active fires (thermal anomalies) as a function of management type in the contiguous U.S. during 2001-2010. We used the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity database to identify active fires within the perimeter of large wildland fires and land cover maps to identify active fires in croplands. A third class of fires defined as prescribed/other included all residual satellite active fire detections. Large wildland fires were the most variable of all three fire types and had no significant annual trend in the contiguous U.S. during 2001-2010. Active fires in croplands, in contrast, increased at a rate of 3.4 percent per year. Cropland and prescribed/other fire types combined were responsible for 77 percent of the total active fire detections within the U.S and were most abundant in the south and southeast. In the west, cropland active fires decreased at a rate of 5.9 percent per year, likely in response to intensive air quality policies. Potential evaporation was a dominant regulator of the interannual variability of large wildland fires, but had a weaker influence on the other two fire types. Our analysis suggests it may be possible to modify landscape fire emissions within the U.S. by influencing the way fires are used in managed ecosystems.

Satellite-derived↗

DEVELOP: Building Capacity in Early Career Individuals to Apply NASA Earth Observations in Health and Air Quality

The NASA DEVELOP National Program builds capacity to use and apply NASA Earth observations to address environmental concerns around the globe. The DEVELOP model builds capacity in both participants (students, recent graduates, and early and transitioning career professionals), who conduct the projects, and partners (decision and policy makers), who are recipients of project methodologies and results. While projects focus on a spectrum of thematic topics, health and air quality related topics made up more than a quarter of DEVELOP’s FY2023 project portfolio. These projects worked in collaboration with over 30 partner organizations throughout the US and internationally to explore how Earth observations could support decision making in areas such as health and air quality, wildland fires, climate, urban development, and transportation and infrastructure. This presentation provides an overview of the DEVELOP model of building capacity to use Earth observation data, environmental decision-making needs identified in health and air quality relevant projects, DEVELOP project case studies, commonly utilized data sources, and lessons learned. Key takeaways include best practices for project development and execution, how to balance learning with delivering impactful results for partners, and water resource relevant decisions guided by project end products.

Remote sensing↗

The Long, Hard Journey: Expanding the Use of NASA Data and Models for Sustainable Development Planning Around the World

In 2007, the National Research Council's committee on Extending Observations and Research Results to Practical Applications recommended that NASA's Applied Science Program (ASP) directly engage with a broader community of users - not just federal agencies. Soon afterwards, scientists at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center began discussions on a collaborative research project with EMBARQ - the World Resource Institute's Center for Sustainable Transport. The discussions initially focused on how best to utilize satellite observations and atmospheric models for assessing the impact of a proposed transportation project on land use and air quality. Discussions exposed the participants to a broad spectrum of science and policy challenges that these diverse organizations face on a routine basis. It brought into clear focus the need for an observation-modeling system that will allow a proactive approach towards development planning, and the fact that satellite systems do not always provide the spatial and temporal resolution useful for urban-scale applications, underscoring the need for earth system models to bridge this gap. Realizing the significant risk that unplanned urbanization and climate change pose to the social and functional stability of large cities, both organizations decided to expand the scope of their preliminary discussion to include water resources and agriculture. A pilot project, funded by NASA ASP, EMBARQ and Istanbul Technical University focused on quantifying the magnitude and extent of urbanization in Istanbul, and analyzed the combined effect of urbanization and projected climate change on local climate, air quality, and its consequent effects on agricultural productivity. Preliminary results show that Istanbul has undergone a significant amount of Land Use/Land Cover change over the past two decades. While some forested areas have been lost to urban-landscapes, urbanization has mostly occurred over former croplands due to the fact that in contrast to forested areas, croplands have flat terrain, making them a more attractive target for conversion to urban land. The reduction in land area for agricultural and increase in temperature has reduced agricultural production in the vicinity of the city. The United Nations expects the world population to reach 9.2 billion by 2050. Most of this increase will be absorbed by countries that are least able to sustain it. Rapid economic growth is likely to continue and will require massive infrastructure investments. If not properly managed, the magnitude and extent of these initiatives will overwhelm sensitive ecosystems around the world. Successful relationships such as the one described here are critically important if we are to stabilize the threatened ecosystems on which human systems ultimately rely. The challenges, needs, culture, and operating environment of development planning organizations are fundamentally different from a research organization. An appreciation of these differences is a prerequisite for any successful collaboration.

Khan, Maudood↗

A video atlas of TOMS ozone data, 1978-88

The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), on-board NASA's Nimbus-7 weather satellite, has been observing ozone over the earth once daily for the last 10 yr. A time-lapse atlas of 3440 color-coded images drawn from the TOMS archive from 1978 to 1988 has been visualized on a standard VHS videotape that is now available from NASA. The rapid and complex ozone variations presented demonstrate the difficulty of separating man-induced climate changes from natural variability. This article presents a few images from the atlas and describes interesting features in the animation, such as the correlation between ozone and 'the weather', and the recent deepening of the annual ozone hole over the South Pole. Originally intended as a browsing tool for the TOMS digital database, the videotape is a vivid presentation of the earth's atmospheric dynamics and chemistry that is recommended for scientists, educators, policy makers, and citizens concerned about the global environment.

Chesters, D.↗

Native Peoples-Native Homelands Climate Change Workshop: Lessons Learned

The Native Peoples-Native Homelands Climate Change Workshop was held on October 28 through November 01,1998, as part of a series of workshops being held around the U.S. to improve the understanding of the potential consequences of climate variability and change for the Nation. This workshop was specifically designed by Native Peoples to examine the impacts of climate change and extreme weather variability on Native Peoples and Native Homelands from an indigenous cultural and spiritual perspective and to develop recommendations as well as identify potential response actions. The workshop brought together interested Native Peoples, representatives of Tribal governments, traditional elders, Tribal leaders, natural resource managers, Tribal College faculty and students, and climate scientists fiom government agencies and universities. It is clear that Tribal colleges and universities play a unique and critical role in the success of these emerging partnerships for decision-making in addition to the important education function for both Native and non-Native communities such as serving as a culturally-appropriate vehicle for access, analysis, control, and protection of indigenous cultural and intellectual property. During the discussions between scientists and policy-makers from both Native and non-Native communities, a number of important lessons emerged which are key to building more effective partnerships between Native and non-Native communities for collaboration and decision-making for a more sustainable future. This talk summarizes the key issues, recommendations, and lessons learned during this workshop.

Maynard, Nancy G.↗

The Earth Observing System

The restructuring of the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS), designed to provide comprehensive long term observations from space of changes occurring on the Earth from natural and human causes in order to have a sound scientific basis for policy decisions on protection of the future, is reported. In response to several factors, the original program approved in the fiscal year 1991 budget was restructured and somewhat reduced in scope. The resulting program uses three different sized launch vehicles to put six different spacecraft in orbit in the first phase, followed by two replacement launches for each of five of the six satellites to maintain a long term observing capability to meet the needs of global climate change research and other science objectives. The EOS system, including the space observatories, the data and information system, and the interdisciplinary global change research effort, are approved and proceeding. Elements of EOS are already in place, such as the research investigations and initial data system capabilities. The flights of precursor satellite and Shuttle missions, the ongoing data analysis, and the evolutionary enhancements to the integrated Earth science data management capabilities are all important building blocks to the full EOS program.

Shaffer, Lisa Robock↗

OpenNEX: An open collaboration platform for the earth science community

Satellite data from the past several decades provide the most consistent record of land-surface processes that form the basis for scientific assessments of the impacts of climate variations and changes on the environment and human social-economical activities. During this time, scientific research on the characterization and assessment of environmental changes had tended to focus on large-scale land-surface changes with significant social-economic impacts. Increasingly, attention is shifting toward changes that occur more locally and that most directly relate to the everyday life of the majority of the population. In addition, there has been needs to develop management and policy decision support systems that are based on local environmental information. Almost at the same time, the advancement in sensor technology has allowed us to collect an unprecedented volume of environmental data. These data must be curated and analyzed to extract useful information for research and decision support purposes. Established in 2013 and funded by NASA, the Open NASA Earth eXchange (OpenNEX; https://opennex.org/ , Jia et al., 2019 ) project partnered with Amazon Web Services (AWS) to make available a large amount of Earth observing data, modeling results, and analysis tools on the AWS. OpenNEX provides researchers, developers, educators, and ordinary users with easy access to an integrated Earth science computational and data platform, enabling citizen scientists and application developers to realize the full value of NASA data assets and software tools. To encourage the public's engagement in this project, NASA ran virtual workshops and prize competitions. The virtual workshops provided online lectures and tutorials about how prominent scientists used the data in their research and the tutorials gave examples how to use the tools to interrogate the data in the Amazon cloud. Finally, the prize competitions allowed much wider participation in the OpenNEX project and enable testing the non-traditional projects and out-of-box ideas. OpenNEX has continued to evolve and mature. Here, we highlight new features and functionalities available to the community.

Jian Zhang↗

Groundwater Variability Across India, Under Contrasting Human and Natural Conditions

Characterizing local to regional scale water cycles and water resources will be crucial for achieving the United Nations' water-related Sustainable Developmental Goals. However, quantification and understanding of groundwater extraction across scales have been hampered by inadequate water usage reporting and limited information on irrigation practices. Here we analyze observations from ∼15,000 groundwater monitoring wells and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites together with irrigation, agricultural, and meteorological datasets to show how drought-induced coupling between natural and anthropogenic groundwater storage variations has caused sustainability challenges in India, the world's biggest consumer of groundwater for irrigation. Notably, the mechanisms and consequences of such coupling differ significantly depending on aquifer types. In Andhra Pradesh's hard rock aquifer, groundwater declines have been limited, despite the nearly constant water scarcity that its farmers face. Moreover, its free farm power policy involves an annual irrigation energy consumption of 26 billion kWh that costs US$ 2.5 billion, possibly unparalleled compared to any other part of the world of similar size (0.27 million km2). In West Bengal's highly permeable alluvial aquifer, the water table is declining rapidly (15 cm/yr) due to a policy that encourages irrigation. Situated between these two states, Odisha's aquifer shows substantial resilience to drought, owing to the state's relatively natural landscape and forest restoration policy. The findings of this study provide new insights to understand the divergent aspects of groundwater irrigation in north versus south India, which can enable development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to avert the looming water crisis.

Dileep K Panda↗

Lessons Learned in Designing A Proposed Ultraviolet Sterilization System for Space

This paper presents a number of lessons learned while designing a proposed sterilization system for Mars Sample Return. This sterilization system is needed to inactivate any potentially hazardous Mars material on the exterior surface of the vessel containing sealed sample tubes filled with Mars rock cores, regolith and atmosphere. These returned samples would provide information on the geologic history of Mars, the evolution of its climate and the potential for ancient life. Mars Sample Return is categorized at Planetary Protection Category V Restricted Earth Return, so it is required to protect the Earth–Moon system from the biological impact of returning samples from Mars to Earth. This article reviews lessons learned in the development of a particular engineering implementation to support the protection of the Earth–Moon biosphere: the use of in situ ultraviolet LED illumination. The details of the biological efficacy of this approach or the policy-related impacts are outside of the scope of this manuscript. The lessons learned presented here include establishing design requirements for the system, the selection of a light source, optical design options, contamination control and approaches to thermal and power management.

Planetary Protection↗

Declining Global Per Capita Agricultural Production and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security

Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that was grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be controlled by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices, and policies. In this paper we discuss several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia, and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14 percent between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21 st century food availability by disrupting Indian Ocean moisture transports and tilting the 21 st century climate toward a more El Nino-like state. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced main growing season rainfall along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, we present an analysis of emerging threats to global food security.

Funk, Chris C.↗