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DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity Analysis of Drivers Water Shortage in the Los Angeles Region During Drought

The code and detailed step-by-step instructions for generating the model output data, processing results, and analysis and plotting are provided at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. The PyArtes model is a python adaptation of the Artes model. PyArtes uses many of the same input data and optimization model architecture as Artes. Documentation for the PyArtes model is provided in the Supplement to the paper. The primary data product are simulated monthly water shortages for indoor and outdoor demand under a large ensemble of drought scenarios (>13,000). The droughts are hypothetical and are not based on historical time series data of supply sources - though historical data did help inform ranges explored for supply parameters. Demands are informed by recent 2017-2021 water supply data. Demands used for the model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. Simulations resolve demand for over 90 water providers in the study region. The results report 36 months of water shortage data for each indoor and outdoor demand node. The study also developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network trained on a subset of the simulated shortage ensemble to emulate worst annual water shortage for a given set of parameter multipliers -- provided the parameter values fall within the ranges sampled in the ensemble. Emulated water shortages for synthetic ensembles are in the MLP-generated shortages folder. The MLP model was used to generate larger ensembles to support Sobol analysis that would have been extremely computationally expensive to simulate. Datasets provided in this repository*: Simulated shortages. These results are used for the analysis for Figures 5, 8, and 9 in the paper, and also to train the MLP emulator. .zip file containing outputs for the 13,312 scenario ensemble. Separate .csv files for indoor and outdoor shortage for each scenario. Rows = demand ids (~100), Columns = months (36) Units = acre-feet/month of shortage (shortage = monthly demand - supply). 1 acft = 1233.48 m^3 .csv files of aggregated shortages derived from the 13,312 ensemble Rows = scenarios (13,312), Columns = demand ids (~100) Units = acre-feet/year (either worst annual shortage or total shortage over the 3-year drought) .csv file of the parameter multipliers scenarios for the ensemble .csv file of the parameter ranges and baseline values the multipliers were applied to MLP-generated shortages. These results are used for Figures 4, 6, and 7 in the paper. mwd higher folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results Emulated shortages. Rows = scenarios, columns = demand ids, units acft Sobol results. Rows = demand ids, columns Sobol (S1, ST, or 95% confidence interval) value for each parameter mwd lower folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results same organization as mwd higher MLP performance: performance metrics (R^2, RMSE, BIAS, MAPE) for the testing subset (20% or 2,662 scenarios) and simulated vs emulated worst year shortage (acre-feet/year) for every demand node, MWD wholesale regions, and the entire study region (LAC). Supporting data for figures. Figure plotting scripts in the associated GitHub repo. These files support analysis and visualization. Geospatial Data used for plotting simulated water shortages and Sobol results. Dictionary of full names for demand nodes in the model and estimates of water supply by source type informed by Artes input files and California Urban Water Management Planning data: https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Water-Use-And-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Use-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Management-Plans *Readme files provided for each folder.

drought↗

DOE OSTI2026

NGEE Arctic Integrated Modeling (IM2): Improved subgrid hillslope hydrologic connectivity

This data product represents the integration of new code capability for arctic tundra hillslope hydrologic processes into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), through the E3SM Land Model (ELM) component. This code integration is the result of collaborative effort between the NGEE Arctic project and the E3SM project. The current ELM represents water movement primarily through vertical processes, such as precipitation, canopy interception, evaporation, infiltration, and soil water movement. Lateral water movement—such as surface runoff, subsurface flow, and river transport—plays a significant role in the hydrological cycle, especially in regions with varied topography. While E3SM includes a runoff routing component representing water transport in the river network, the lateral transport of water at the subgrid scale within the land model has previously not been taken into account. With the recent development of topographic units within the ELM subgrid data structure, there is an opportunity to simulate hillslope hydrologic connectivity by introducing water transport along topographic gradients. We expect that more realistic representation of hillslope hydrologic processes will lead to improved predictions of both soil water content and river network flows. Lateral transport of water at and near the surface is represented as a sub-grid process in this new code development. Water is tracked as it moves from higher to lower elevations within a gridcell. This capability uses the nested hierarchical sub-grid scheme within ELM to connect water fluxes from sub-grid elements with higher elevation to those with lower elevation. This data record consists of a single document (pdf format) that describes the theoretical basis for the hillslope hydrology processes added to ELM, and describes the modifications made to the ELM code. The Methods section of this metadata record includes a link to the public E3SM code repository where the exact code modifications as integrated in E3SM can be accessed. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

Thornton, Peter E [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247595158)↗

DOE OSTI2026

NGEE Arctic Integrated Modeling (IM3): Improved snow-vegetation interaction

This data product represents the integration of new code capability for arctic tundra snow-vegetation-terrain interactions into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), through the E3SM Land Model (ELM) component. This code integration is the result of collaborative effort between the NGEE Arctic project and the E3SM project. The NGEE Arctic project developed a total of six Integrated Modeling (IM) modules informed by observations and experiments. New ELM capability represented by this data product (IM3) falls into three categories: 1) Downscaling from gridcell to topographic unit level when working through the existing coupler bypass code. 2) Four new parameters (taper, stocking, bendresist, and vegshape) have been added to ELM to allow for flexible definition of snow-vegetation interactions. 3) Vegshape and bendresist parameters are used to calculate the fraction of leaf area and/or stem area buried by snow for a given snow depth. This data record consists of a single document (pdf format) that describes the theoretical basis for the snow-vegetation-terrain interactions added to ELM, and describes the modifications made to the ELM code. The Methods section of this metadata record includes a link to the public E3SM code repository where the exact code modifications as integrated in E3SM can be accessed. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

Thornton, Peter E [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247595158)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data Repository for Multi-Objective Urban Observational Strategies: A risk-based framework for expanding flood sensor networks.

These data support the manuscript "Multi-Objective Urban Observational Strategies: A risk-based framework for expanding flood sensor networks." These data are generated to allow water managers to reason about optimal locations to expand a flood observation system from multiple perspectives, specifically focusing on flood hazards, and population exposure to flooding. The data included are a) a shapefile of individual sensor locations b) a shapefile of river reach catchments, c) raster of FEMA flood likelihood layers d) shapefile of population locations and population socioeconomic characteristics. The code is written in R and includes all files necessary to generate the figures for the associated manuscript. Interactive maps of the final calculated maps of hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk are also included as html files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Generation of scalable genuine multipartite Gaussian entanglement with a parametric amplifier network

Genuine multipartite entanglement is a valuable resource in quantum information science, as it exhibits inseparability across all possible bipartitions of a multimode quantum state. The large degree of quantum correlations can be exploited in various quantum information protocols, such as teleportation, dense coding, and quantum interferometry. Here, in this study, we propose a scheme to generate scalable genuine multipartite continuous-variable entangled states of light using a parametric amplifier network. We verify the presence of genuine quadripartite, hexapartite, and octapartite entanglement through a violation of the positive partial transpose criteria. Additionally, we use 𝛼-entanglement of formation to demonstrate the scalability of our approach to an arbitrary number of 2⁢𝑁 genuinely entangled parties by taking advantage of the symmetries present in our scheme.

Kim, Saesun [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cold Plasma Measurements

We have continued the simulation campaign in support of our ongoing magnetospheric cold plasma research project. This project aims to develop the next-generation particle instruments to measure the properties of the cold particle populations in the Earth’s magnetosphere. For this purpose, simulations have been performed with a Particle-In-Cell (PIC) code called the Curvilinear PIC (CPIC). The code is formulated in curvilinear geometry and couples the standard PIC algorithm with algorithms for the generation and adaptation of the underlaying computational mesh. It conforms to complex objects like spacecraft and it can place more grid points in regions where higher resolution is needed. The code also features a scalable solver based on the multigrid algorithm and it is fully parallelized via domain decomposition and MPI.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Speeding-up fuzzing through directional seeds

Abstract Fuzzing is an automated process for discovering inputs in a program that may trigger unexpected behavior. Today, fuzzing has become a standard practice for the discovery of bugs and security vulnerabilities. However, the main issue with such practices is that the exploration of the input space of programs can often be prohibitively expensive. Therefore, several alternative fuzzing strategies have been introduced during the last few years. Some fuzzing techniques rely on human expertise to provide a plausible set of initial input examples, namely, seeds. However, the process of handcrafting seeds for fuzzing purposes often becomes strenuous for humans as it requires a deeper understanding of the Program-Under-Test (PUT). Also, the use of known inputs to programs often does not trigger vulnerable program behavior or may not reach potentially vulnerable code locations. To address those issues, we propose a seed generation framework that enables Human-In-The-Loop (HITL) directed fuzzing where the human assumes a more active role in the creation of seeds that can penetrate and assess desired locations of the PUT. Our proposed framework uses Symbolic Execution (SE) to generate seeds that exercise paths to target program locations. Moreover, our framework enables the visualization of the explored execution paths in the binary of the PUT for the generated seeds. We evaluated our approach on a set of 12 carefully designed C programs with diverse characteristics that mimic real-world programs. The experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach in improving the performance of standard fuzzing tools such as the American Fuzzy Lop ("Image missing" <#comment/> ). Specifically, our solution can generate seeds that substantially enhance the performance of the fuzzer, achieving speedups ranging from $$1.46\times $$ 1.46 × to $$68.53\times $$ 68.53 × for branch conditions, $$1.39\times $$ 1.39 × to $$254.62\times $$ 254.62 × for branch depths, $$14,879.59\times $$ 14 , 879.59 × to $$30,295.88\times $$ 30 , 295.88 × for branch widths over traditional seeds. Additionally, the speedup increases with the number of target function ranging from $$12,260\times $$ 12 , 260 × to $$22,856.07\times $$ 22 , 856.07 × over traditional seeds while only requiring less than 15 seconds on average for the seed generation step.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

The high explosives & affected targets (HEAT) dataset

Artificial Intelligence (AI) surrogate models offer a computationally efficient alternative to full-physics simulations, yet no existing datasets are publicly available for training, testing, and validation of machine learning models of the dynamics of high-explosive driven shocks through multiple materials. Shock propagation through materials is a computationally challenging problem because simulations must include material-specific equations of state (EOS) along with descriptions of other physical processes such as plastic deformation, phase change, damage processes, fluid instabilities, and multi-material interactions. Shocks are typically initiated by high-velocity impacts or explosive loading. The latter case necessitates the addition of models of reactive materials to represent high-explosive (HE) detonation. Here, to address the lack of an expansive dataset for multi-material shock propagation in the AI/ML community, we present the High-Explosives and Affected Targets (HEAT) Dataset. HEAT is a physics-rich collection of two-dimensional, cylindrically symmetric, simulations generated using an Eulerian, multi-material, shock-propagation code developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The dataset includes two partitions: (1) the expanding shock-cylinder (CYL) simulations, Figs. 1, and (2) the Perturbed Layered Interface (PLI) simulations, Fig. 2. Entries in both partitions consist of time series of arrays of thermodynamic fields (pressure, density, and temperature), kinematic fields (position and velocity), and additional fields that depend on thermodynamic and/or kinematic fields (e.g., material stress). Materials in the CYL partition include solids (aluminium, copper, depleted uranium, stainless steel, tantalum, and a generic polymer), a liquid (water), gases (air, nitrogen), and a generic detonating material (high explosive, HE). The PLI partition spans a highly varying geometry but consists of fixed materials across entries: Copper, aluminium, stainless steel, generic polymer, and generic HE. HEAT captures critical phenomena such as momentum transfer, shock propagation, plastic deformation, and thermal effects, making HEAT a valuable benchmark for development of AI/ML emulation of multi-material shock propagation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of High-Reactivity Advanced Test Reactor Experiments on Photon Heating in Nearby Experiment Locations

The Advanced Test Reactor’s (ATR’s) distinctive ability to provide a wide range of irradiation conditions is attractive for programs pursuing fuel qualification experiments. These potentially high-fuel-load experiments are a relatively new development and produce unexplored effects on nearby experiments. Here, this paper explores how photon heating of such an experiment may affect other nearby experiment programs, ultimately serving to better inform decisions regarding experiment design and risks to programmatic goals. The MC21 (Monte Carlo for the 21st Century) code is used to model and study how gamma heat generation rates and axial effects impact different ATR positions. The results reveal that the proximity of a given experiment’s position to the high-fuel-load one can significantly alter that experiment’s expected axial profile.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Intelligent-Immunity

This code builds machine learning models for transcription and protein data generated for the purpose of classifying innate immune signatures.

Martinez, Kaitlyn (Katy) [@lanl]↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Method of Finite Averages

The Method of Finite Averages (MoFA) is a rigorous multiscale modeling methodology for efficiently modeling multi-physical phenomena in heterogeneous porous media. The code developed in this project aims to perform the numerical calculations required to formulate, implement, and verify MoFA models for Earth and Energy systems (i.e., model verification refers to performing fully-resolved simulations of the systems and comparing their results to those of the models). In general, MoFA transforms partial differential equations (PDEs) describing the fine-scale physics of a system into coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs)---in time---that describe the coarse-scale---or "average"---physical behaviors of the system. This transformation significantly expedites system simulation, as the coarse-scale ODEs involve vastly fewer degrees of freedom than the fine-scale PDEs. The code developed under this project will allow users to 1.) generate system geometries and numerical meshes, 2.) solve the PDE and ODE systems required for MoFA model formulation and implementation, 3.) solve the PDE systems required to obtain fully-resolved simulation results for model verification, and 4.) compare and plot results (e.g., the model and fully-resolved simulation solutions, the error between the solutions, etc.).

Pietrzyk, KyleM [Lawrence Livermore National Labor↗

DOE OSTI2026

AlphaZero Reimplementation with Zoning Game and Associated Materials [SWR-26-016]

Here, we present a de novo, extensible, modular, research-oriented, single-player reimplementation of the "AlphaZero" class of algorithms originally described in [1]. We also present a novel task called the Zoning Game, designed as a toy problem to test the applicability of various AlphaZero-based paradigms to infrastructure planning problems, along with several other games. We implement specializations of AlphaZero to play several games. We also include code that serves as a starting point to explore language generation with AlphaZero, as well as documentation and other related materials. [1] Silver, D., Schrittwieser, J., Simonyan, K., Antonoglou, I., Huang, A., Guez, A., Hubert, T., Baker, L., Lai, M., Bolton, A., Chen, Y., Lillicrap, T., Hui, F., Sifre, L., van den Driessche, G., Graepel, T., & Hassabis, D. (2017). Mastering the game of Go without human knowledge. Nature, 550(7676), 354–359. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature24270

Konar-Steenberg, Gabriel [National Laboratory of t↗

DOE OSTI2024

RectifHydPlus Data Pipeline

The RectifHydPlus Data Pipeline is an open source and fully reproducible data processing pipeline for creating RectifHydPlus—a dataset of historical monthly net electricity generation for all US hydropower plants (>10MW). The pipeline is coded in R, applying tidyverse libraries and code principles, and using the targets data pipeline framework. All data inputs to the RectifHydPlus Data Pipeline are available from public sources. References to all data inputs, as well as instructions for running the RectifHydPlus Data Pipeline, are available on the GitLab code repository: https://code.ornl.gov/turnersw/rectifhydplus

Turner, SeanWilliam Donald [Oak Ridge National Lab↗

DOE OSTI2025

RectifHydPlus Data Pipeline v1.1.0

Turner, SeanWilliam Donald [Oak Ridge National Lab↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assurance of Reasoning Enabled Systems (ARES)

ARES was in part motivated by the determination of President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) on May 13th, 2023 that published a set of inquiries: In an era in which convincing images, audio, and text can be generated with ease on a massive scale, how can we ensure reliable access to verifiable, trustworthy information? How can we be certain that a particular piece of media is genuinely from the claimed source? What technologies, policies, and infrastructure can be developed to detect and counter AI-generated disinformation? In an effort to automatically analyze and patch/optimize code the work in this report describes various neural Machine Learning (ML) analysis engine implementations to assist in situations where source code is deficient or completely lacking to decompile (lift) binary code to ’C’. The goal is to gradually reduce human intervention. To this end, two Large Language Model (LLM) variants (Code LLama 2, LLama 3.1 and Starcoder1, Starcoder 2) where finetuned with ’before/after’ code pairs on the OpenBLAS library. LLama trained on the lowering process, Starcoder trained on the lifting process with National Security Agency’s (NSA) open-source Ghidra decompiler assist. The inferencing test results indicate correctness for only very short sequences for Starcoder 2. Moving forward, the experiments conclude with a set of recommendations of required resources and technologies

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Initial Assessment of CTF for Time-at-Temperature Applications

The US nuclear industry is interested in improving the economics of their fleet of light-water reactors (LWRs) by uprating US plants. One option being considered is to regain lost margin from overly conservative fuel safety limits. The current limit requires avoidance of critical heat flux (CHF) and prevents further operation of fuel that experiences a dry-out in boiling water reactors (BWRs) or departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) in pressurized water reactors (PWRs); however, it has been shown that temporary, mild dry-out of the fuel does not necessarily increase the risk of fuel failure during its normal anticipated operating life. Such mild dry-out or DNB events may occur during a plant anticipated operational occurrence (AOO), such as a locked rotor in a PWR or a pump trip in a BWR. The time-at-temperature (TAT) approach to regulating fuel operation aims to demonstrate that the fuel rod’s integrity is not challenged during such a mild transient that leads to CHF in which the fuel operates at an elevated temperature for a brief period of time. However, implementing this approach will require extensive fuel material experimental data, as well as supporting modeling and simulation (M&S) predictions, to ensure that the predicted fuel response during AOOs, with all applicable uncertainty considered, will not threaten the safety of the fuel during the transient or the remainder of its anticipated lifecycle. To address this need, a comprehensive effort is being proposed that includes generating cladding material data under TAT conditions, assessment of available code capabilities for TAT conditions, development of new mechanistic models, and demonstration of the M&S capabilities for AOOs of interest. This will require a joint effort between the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) and Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) programs, as well as close collaboration with nuclear industry stakeholders. The outcome of this collaboration will result in development and assessment of capabilities that can be used by the nuclear industry to support qualification of a TAT-based fuel failure criteria safety limit. This report focuses on the thermal hydraulics (T/H) modeling capabilities and summarizes currently available data for validating the T/H subchannel code CTF for TAT conditions, as well as preliminary assessment results of the code. The initial assessment also resulted in implementation of an alternative post-CHF heat transfer package, which has been shown to significantly improve accuracy. This report is not a final assessment and does not consider all available validation data; it is intended that a future assessment will more fully validate the code for this application.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulated Microstructures for Laser Powder Bed Fusion Additive Manufacturing Using Myna, AdditiveFOAM, and ExaCA

This dataset provides sample datasets containing voxelized, three-dimensional representations of simulated grain structures and crystallographic orientations that can result from laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing. The six microstructure files each contain approximately 1 cubic millimeter of material (1 mm x 1 mm cross-section over 26 simulated layers of deposition). Some of the microstructures have columnar grains that extend across nearly the entire simulation domain, while others have more equiaxed or truncated columnar grains. The process conditions to generate these microstructures were from the Peregrine v2023-10 dataset (10.13139/ORNLNCCS/2008021). The codes used are publicly available and released under open-source licenses. Myna (https://github.com/ORNL-MDF/Myna) was used for configuration of the cases from the Peregrine v2023-10 HDF5 dataset and to run the simulation workflow. AdditiveFOAM (https://github.com/ORNL/AdditiveFOAM) was used to simulate the melt pool and generate solidification conditions. And ExaCA (https://github.com/LLNL/ExaCA ) was used to simulate the three-dimensional microstructures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

ASME Code change proposal to implement new universal high temperature constitutive models for Section III, Division 5

This report completes work on a universal high temperature constitutive model suitable for use with the ASME Boiler & Pressure Vessel Code Section III, Division 5 rules for the design by inelastic analysis of Class A nuclear reactor components. The goals of this work are to provide a simple model form that adequately captures the high temperature response of materials and can be applied to any future Code material. Additionally, the report describes an automated process for calibrating a model against test data. The idea is to simplify the effort required to generate a constitutive model for an arbitrary material, provided test data is available. This will accelerate the process of qualifying new Code materials in the future. In addition, the report provides calibrated models and detailed validation comparisons to test data for five currently-qualified or soon-to-be qualified materials: 316H, Grade 91, Alloy 800H, Alloy 617, and Alloy 709. The report surveys the available data for the remaining two ASME Class Materials --- 2.25Cr-1Mo and 304H --- concluding that there is enough data data to generate a model for 2.25Cr-1Mo steel provided some additional sources of non-public data can be included in the test database, but that a dedicated cyclic test campaign would be needed for 304H. Supplemental material includes the full text of an ASME Code change proposal to incorporate the models for the four currently-qualified Class A material, detailed validation comparisons to test data for the five material models, and input files for reference implementations of the constitutive models in the NEML and NEML2 modeling frameworks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗