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At least 217 records · Page 12

Multi-Model and Multi-Scale Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Controlling Processes of Complex Systems

An environmental model consists of multiple process level sub-models, and each sub-model represents a process that is key to the operation of the simulated system. Global sensitivity analysis methods have been widely used to identify important processes for system model development and improvement. The existing methods of global sensitivity analysis only consider parametric uncertainty, and are not capable of handling model uncertainty caused by multiple process models that arise from competing hypotheses about one or more processes. To address this problem, this project develops a new method to probe model output sensitivity to competing process models by integrating model averaging methods with variance-based global sensitivity analysis to address uncertainty in process models and parameters. The new method yields three process sensitivity indices. The first one is called first-order process sensitivity index, and it is derived as a single summary measure of relative process importance. Evaluating the index is computationally expensive, because it relies in a Monte Carlo scheme that requires thousands and even millions of model executions. To reduce computational cost, this project develops a computationally efficient, quasi Monte Carlo method, and this method is presented in Chapter 2 of this report with and a numerical example for demonstration. The numerical example shows that the results of the quasi Monte Carlo method are substantially close to those of the full Monte Carlo method, but the computational cost of the quasi Monte Carlo method is only 0.7% of that of the full Monte Carlo method. The second index is called total-effect process sensitivity index, and it measures interactions between different processes. Therefore, this sensitivity index includes the first-order process sensitivity index, and can be used to identify influential processes. On the other hand, the total-effect process sensitivity index can also be used to screen non-influential processes. This is demonstrated by two numerical examples using the Sobol-G* functions and groundwater flow models that consider recharge process, geological process, and snowmelt process. The numerical examples shows that the total-effect process sensitivity index is more informative than the first-order process sensitivity. The derivation of the process sensitivity index and the numerical examples are discussed in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 presents two computationally efficient methods for screening non-influential processes to exclude them from further investigation. The two methods are the multi-model difference-based sensitivity (MMDS) analysis method, which can be implemented using the Latin Hypercube Sampling. The second one is the implementation of MMDS method using a binning method. The numerical example for the Sobol-G* function indicates the two methods are capable of identifying non-influential models, and the numerical examples for the groundwater flow and reactive transport show that the two methods are effective for groundwater problems. However, it should be noted that the two methods are numerical approximations, and they can only be used for screening non-influential processes, not for ranking importance of system processes. All the sensitivity analysis methods are implemented by developing python codes, and the codes are in a software called SAMMPY: a python package for process sensitivity analysis under multiple models. The SAMMPY design and structure are discussed in Chapter 5, and the package is released to the public for free download.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method for evaluating human errors in a variety of complex systems such as nuclear power plants, military systems, aircraft, and chemical plants. Most HRA methods currently used by regulatory institutes or utilities are called static HRA and are carried out by simple worksheets or simple calculators. To date, there are many unsolved or intrinsic challenges in static HRA. For example, existing static HRA does not realistically model and evaluate human actions as they would be performed at actual systems. There is no method with HRA to objectively estimate the time required for human actions despite being essential to HRA processes. In addition, many HRA methods still rely on a dataset generated prior to the 1980s, from unrelated industry experience or simply from expert judgment. Accordingly, this study attempted to research how to overcome the challenges of existing HRA via dynamic risk assessment (a.k.a., simulation-based or computation-based risk assessment) techniques. First, this study developed a dynamic HRA method, named as PRocedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – HRA (PRIMERA-HRA). The PRIMERA-HRA mainly concentrates on providing HRA analysts with specific guidelines on how to reasonably model human actions, assign human reliability data and evaluate output of simulation within a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool, called as Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). Second, this study also developed a module for performance shaping factors (i.e., the key concept in HRA quantification) applicable to dynamic HRA, then implemented it based on PRIMERA-HRA within the EMRALD tool. Third, this study developed an HRA data collection framework to support dynamic HRA, called as Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). Originally, the SHEEP study aimed to support static HRA and its data collection, but recently extended the scope to the new technologies such as dynamic HRA or HRA for advanced reactors. SHEEP focuses on the use of data collected from simplified simulators to complement—but not replace—data collection studies using full-scope simulators and actual operators. To date, many experiments were conducted under the SHEEP framework. Multiple analyses, such as human performance analysis, human error analysis, task complexity analysis, learning effect analysis and time distribution analysis, were also carried out using the collected data. Then, based on the major insights, an approach to inferring full-scope data based on simplified simulator data was proposed. The PRIMERA-HRA and SHEEP research are expected to evaluate human actions more realistically than existing static HRA, provide an opportunity to collect more HRA data with reasonable cost and labor, then contribute to enhance the quality of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method for evaluating human errors in a variety of complex systems such as nuclear power plants, military systems, aircraft, and chemical plants. Most HRA methods currently used by regulatory institutes or utilities are called static HRA and are carried out by simple worksheets or simple calculators. To date, there are many unsolved or intrinsic challenges in static HRA. For example, existing static HRA does not realistically model and evaluate human actions as they would be performed at actual systems. There is no method with HRA to objectively estimate the time required for human actions despite being essential to HRA processes. In addition, many HRA methods still rely on a dataset generated prior to the 1980s, from unrelated industry experience or simply from expert judgment. Accordingly, this study attempted to research how to overcome the challenges of existing HRA via dynamic risk assessment (a.k.a., simulation-based or computation-based risk assessment) techniques. First, this study developed a dynamic HRA method, named as PRocedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – HRA (PRIMERA-HRA). The PRIMERA-HRA mainly concentrates on providing HRA analysts with specific guidelines on how to reasonably model human actions, assign human reliability data and evaluate output of simulation within a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool, called as Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). Second, this study also developed a module for performance shaping factors (i.e., the key concept in HRA quantification) applicable to dynamic HRA, then implemented it based on PRIMERA-HRA within the EMRALD tool. Third, this study developed an HRA data collection framework to support dynamic HRA, called as Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). Originally, the SHEEP study aimed to support static HRA and its data collection, but recently extended the scope to the new technologies such as dynamic HRA or HRA for advanced reactors. SHEEP focuses on the use of data collected from simplified simulators to complement—but not replace—data collection studies using full-scope simulators and actual operators. To date, many experiments were conducted under the SHEEP framework. Multiple analyses, such as human performance analysis, human error analysis, task complexity analysis, learning effect analysis and time distribution analysis, were also carried out using the collected data. Then, based on the major insights, an approach to inferring full-scope data based on simplified simulator data was proposed. The PRIMERA-HRA and SHEEP research are expected to evaluate human actions more realistically than existing static HRA, provide an opportunity to collect more HRA data with reasonable cost and labor, then contribute to enhance the quality of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Safety Analysis Report For Packaging, Y-12 National Security Complex, Model ES-3100 Package with Bulk HEU Contents

This safety analysis report for packaging (SARP) presents the results of the safety analysis prepared in support of the Consolidated Nuclear Security, LLC (CNS) request for licensing of the Model ES-3100 package with bulk highly enriched uranium (HEU) contents and issuance of a Type B(U) Fissile Material Certificate of Compliance. This SARP, published in the format specified in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Regulatory Guide 7.9 and using information provided in UCID-21218 and NRC Regulatory Guide 7.10, demonstrates that the Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) ES-3100 package with bulk HEU contents meets the established NRC regulations for packaging, preparation for shipment, and transportation of radioactive materials given in Title 10, Part 71, of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) [10 CFR 71] as well as U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) regulations for packaging and shipment of hazardous materials given in Title 49 CFR.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Evaluation of Hybrid FPOG Applications in Regulated and Deregulated Markets Using HERON

Recent changes in the U.S. energy market, such as low natural gas prices and increased electricity production for variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, have led to an economic crisis for existing light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPP). Many owners and operators of LWRs have elected to decommission these plants rather than continue using them as consistent sources of clean baseload power. This has led to exploration of various possibilities to increase the economic viability of these units, including market restructuring to monetize benefits LWRs already provide to the grid through ancillary markets, load following and economic dispatch, and possible integration of secondary systems directly to the NPP for production of additional products through technologies such as hydrogen electrolysis or water desalination. Previous studies have considered the technologies associated with these Integrated Energy Systems (IES) activities, and the analysis of markets for these secondary products. To analyze the economic viability of various system configurations including IES, especially given the uncertainty surrounding load demand, electricity prices, and the availability of VRE resources, the stochastic technoeconomic analysis package HERON (Heuristic Energy Resource Optimization Network) was released earlier this year as an extension of the risk analysis framework RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual Environment). HERON focuses foremost on making the complex uncertainty quantification analysis tools approachable for energy systems analysts, also providing general dispatch optimization algorithms for those workflows. HERON continues to be improved and tested as a significant part of the IES viability analyses performed in this work. HERON is not a capacity expansion model. To consider market and grid energy system development in a variety of scenarios, HERON is best used in coupling with modelling tools such as US-REGEN, which sacrifice some of the uncertainty analysis and resolution of HERON's modelling for the ability to efficiently predict the change in the grid energy system's profile due to economic drivers over decades. HERON can then use this information to explore the economic viability of introducing changes to the predicted outcomes, such as the introduction of an IES. In this work, experts at EPRI using US-REGEN provide six projection scenarios for use in HERON stochastic technoeconomic analysis (STEA) in considering the options available for increasing LWR economic viability through introduction of a hydrogen-centric IES using a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant (HTSE), hydrogen storage, and a constant-rate contracted hydrogen consumer. The results obtained are differential in nature; they do not report expected profits for any configuration, but rather report on the possible increase in the NPV of a configuration with respect to a baseline no-IES configuration. Due to the uncertainty captured in the variable net load of the systems, there is likewise uncertainty in the mean values reported. We consider this viability both in terms of a regulated market, where the energy producers and IES are owned and operated by single entity, as well as a deregulated market, where the IES chooses its bid for electricity generation and is then dispatched by the grid system operator. Results indicate that for deregulated markets, the inclusion of the IES is often statistically beneficial. This is especially true in policies that are not favorable towards nuclear, as nuclear is less often dispatched and is forced to deal with frequent idle capacity. In the nominal case as well as the case of carbon tax policies, inclusion of the IES clearly benefited the economic performance of the NPP. In the regulated case, however, there was a trend towards minimizing the IES, likely due to the optimal sizing performed by US-REGEN of the NPP within the system as well as the lack of penalty for idle capacity at the NPP in the regulated market analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Tutorial: Lessons Learned for Behavior Analysts from Data Scientists

Big data is a computing term used to refer to large and complex data sets, typically consisting of terabytes or more of diverse data that is produced rapidly. The analysis of such complex data sets requires advanced analysis techniques with the capacity to identify patterns and abstract meanings from the vast data. The field of data science combines computer science with mathematics/statistics and leverages artificial intelligence, in particular machine learning, to analyze big data. This field holds great promise for behavior analysis, where both clinical and research studies produce large volumes of diverse data at a rapid pace (i.e., big data). This article presents basic lessons for the behavior analytic researchers and clinicians regarding integration of data science into the field of behavior analysis. We provide guidance on how to collect, protect, and process the data, while highlighting the importance of collaborating with data scientists to select a proper machine learning model that aligns with the project goals and develop models with input from human experts. Here, we hope this serves as a guide to support the behavior analysts interested in the field of data science to advance their practice or research, and helps them avoid some common pitfalls.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Synthesis, characterization, and theoretical analysis of a plutonyl phosphine oxide complex

The interplay of bond strength and covalency are examined in AnO 2 Cl 2 (OPcy 3 ) 2 (An = Pu, U) complexes. The synthesis of trans-PuO 2 Cl 2 (OPcy 3 ) 2 , 1-Pu, has been carried out and confirmed by single crystal X-ray diffraction along with UV-vis-NIR, and 31 P NMR spectroscopies. Theoretical analysis finds that despite a higher calculated covalency for the Pu–Cl interaction, the Pu–OPcy 3 interaction is stronger due to the accumulation of electron density in the interatomic region. As a result, the coordination of equatorial ligands slightly decreases the strength of the Pu≡O yl interactions relative to the free gas phase (PuO 2 ) 2+ ion.

Windorff, Cory J.↗

Site Density Functional Theory and Structural Bioinformatics Analysis of the SARS-CoV Spike Protein and hACE2 Complex

The entry of the SARS-CoV-2, a causative agent of COVID-19, into human host cells is mediated by the SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) glycoprotein, which critically depends on the formation of complexes involving the spike protein receptor-binding domain (RBD) and the human cellular membrane receptor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (hACE2). Using classical site density functional theory (SDFT) and structural bioinformatics methods, we investigate binding and conformational properties of these complexes and study the overlooked role of water-mediated interactions. Analysis of the three-dimensional reference interaction site model (3DRISM) of SDFT indicates that water mediated interactions in the form of additional water bridges strongly increases the binding between SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and hACE2 compared to SARS-CoV-1-hACE2 complex. By analyzing structures of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1, we find that the homotrimer SARS-CoV-2 S receptor-binding domain (RBD) has expanded in size, indicating large conformational change relative to SARS-CoV-1 S protein. Protomer with the up-conformational form of RBD, which binds with hACE2, exhibits stronger intermolecular interactions at the RBD-ACE2 interface, with differential distributions and the inclusion of specific H-bonds in the CoV-2 complex. Further interface analysis has shown that interfacial water promotes and stabilizes the formation of CoV-2/hACE2 complex. This interaction causes a significant structural rigidification of the spike protein, favoring proteolytic processing of the S protein for the fusion of the viral and cellular membrane. Moreover, conformational dynamics simulations of RBD motions in SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1 point to the role in modification of the RBD dynamics and their impact on infectivity.

3DRISM↗

Tracking the Light-Induced Excited-State Dynamics and Structural Configurations of an Extraordinarily Long-Lived Metastable State at Room Temperature

Time-resolved X-ray (Tr-XAS) and optical transient absorption (OTA) spectroscopy in the pico-microsecond time scale coupled with Density Functional theory calculations are applied to study the light-induced spin crossover processes of a Fe-based macrocyclic complex in solution. Tr-XAS analysis after light illumination shows the formation of a seven-coordinated high spin quintet metastable state which relaxes to a six-coordinated high spin configuration before decaying to ground state. Kinetic analysis of the macrocyclic complex reveals an unprecedented long-lived decay lifetime of ~42.6 µs. Comparative studies with a non-macrocyclic counterpart illustrate a significantly shortened ~568-old decay lifetime of ~75 ns, and highlight the importance of the ligand arrangement in stabilizing the reactivity of the excited state. Lastly, OTA analysis shows the seven-coordinated high spin state to be formed within ~6.2 ps. Finally, these findings provide a complete understanding of the spin crossover reaction and relaxation pathways of the macrocyclic complex, and reveal the importance of a flexible coordination environment for their rational design.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Composite Power System Reliability with Renewables and Customer Flexibility

Composite Power System Reliability is defined as the computational procedure that quantifies the probability that the power system will perform the function of delivering electric power to customers adequately, on a continuous basis and with an acceptable quality. This definition leaves many details undefined and exemplifies the ambiguity in reliability analysis. The increasing deployment of wind and PV creates additional uncertainties that make reliability analysis a rather complex issue. Because of increased uncertainty the need for composite reliability analysis and utilization of results in power system planning is critical. New approaches are emerging for dealing with these problems from the operational point of view, including demand response programs, tapping on customer and distributed resource flexibility and new control approaches. The key question to be addressed is: how the new operational paradigms affect composite power system reliability. Here, this paper presents the ongoing work of the IEEE Composite System Reliability Task Force of the IEEE PES Reliability, Risk, Probability Application (RRPA) Subcommittee.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Life Cycle Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for the Niagaran Reef Complex CO 2 -EOR Operations

A greenhouse gas emissions life cycle analysis (LCA) was completed for 22 years of carbon dioxide-enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR) operations at the Niagaran reef complex in the northern Michigan Basin based on research by the Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP). The objective of the greenhouse gas LCA was to account for the total greenhouse gas emissions generated through the CO 2 -EOR process..

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Human Performance Analysis Depending on Operator Expertise (Student vs. Operator) and Simulator Complexity (Rancor Microworld vs. Compact Nuclear Simulator)

Human reliability analysis (HRA) evaluates human errors and provides human error probabilities (HEPs) for application in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), which is a comprehensive safety assessment method for nuclear power plants (NPPs). Generally, HRA methods estimate HEPs based on human reliability data collected from actual historical measurement, simulator experiments, or expert judgement. Most recent HRA data collection studies focus on collecting data via full-scope main control room (MCR) simulators with actual licensed reactor operators. Contrary to this, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has adopted a different approach, which attempts to collect HRA data based on experiment using simplified simulators and student participants by following the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). This approach has a couple of advantages compared to full-scope data collection. Representatively, it has relatively low entry point for collecting HRA data, and secures large sample sizes with reasonable cost and labor. In the previous studies, we developed the SHEEP framework, then verified whether the data collected through the framework could support a representative full-scope data collection study, i.e., the Human Reliability Data Extraction (HuREX) study. Also, we analyzed human performance measurements depending on participant type (i.e., student vs. operator). In this paper, we analyze human performance data collected from an experiment comparing operator expertise and simulator complexity when using the more simplified simulator developed by INL, i.e., Rancor Microworld and the less simplified simulator, i.e., Compact Nuclear Simulator (CNS) developed by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). Analysis of variance (ANOVA) tests and correlation analysis are used for analyzing the experimental data.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Relaxation and darkening of excitonic complexes in electrostatically doped monolayer $\mathrm{WSe_2}$: Roles of exciton-electron and trion-electron interactions

Here we present photoluminescence measurements in monolayer $\mathrm{WSe_2}$, which point to the importance of the interaction between charged particles and excitonic complexes. The theoretical analysis highlights the key role played by exchange scattering, referring to cases wherein the particle composition of the complex changes after the interaction. For example, exchange scattering renders bright excitonic complexes dark in monolayer $\mathrm{WSe_2}$ on accounts of the unique valley-spin configuration in this material. In addition to the ultrafast energy relaxation of hot excitonic complexes following their interaction with electrons or holes, our analysis sheds light on several key features that are commonly seen in the photoluminescence of this monolayer semiconductor. In particular, we can understand why the photoluminescence intensity of the neutral bright exciton is strongest when the monolayer is hole doped rather than charge neutral or electron doped. Similarly, we can understand the reason for the dramatic increase of the photoluminescence intensity of negatively charged excitons (trions) as soon as electrons are added to the monolayer. To self-consistently explain the findings, we further study the photoluminescence spectra at different excitation energies and analyze the behavior of the elusive indirect exciton.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Structural analysis of the NifL-NifA complex reveals the molecular basis of anti-activation of nitrogen fixation gene expression in Azotobacter vinelandii

Understanding the molecular basis of regulated nitrogen (N 2 ) fixation is essential for engineering N 2 -fixing bacteria that fulfill the demand of crop plants for fixed nitrogen, reducing our reliance on synthetic nitrogen fertilizers. In Azotobacter vinelandii and many other members of Proteobacteria, the two-component system comprising the anti-activator protein (NifL) and the Nif-specific transcriptional activator (NifA)controls the expression of nif genes, encoding the nitrogen fixation machinery. The NifL-NifA system evolved the ability to integrate several environmental cues, such as oxygen, nitrogen, and carbon availability. The nitrogen fixation machinery is thereby only activated under strictly favorable conditions, enabling diazotrophs to thrive in competitive environments. While genetic and biochemical studies have enlightened our understanding of how NifL represses NifA, the molecular basis of NifA sequestration by NifL depends on structural information on their interaction. Here, we present mechanistic insights into how nitrogen fixation is regulated by combining biochemical and genetic approaches with a low-resolution cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) map of the oxidized NifL-NifA complex. Our findings define the interaction surface between NifL and NifA and reveal how this interaction can be manipulated to generate bacterial strains with increased nitrogen fixation rates able to secrete surplus nitrogen outside the cell, a crucial step in engineering improved nitrogen delivery to crop plants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Structure-function analysis of the FCRL5–IgG1 Fc complex reveals an unappreciated pathway for B cell modulation by Fc-attenuated IgG

The Fc region of therapeutic IgG antibodies is often engineered to remove or “silence” Fc effector functions, but it remains unclear whether these mutations eliminate all Fc-mediated effector activity. Human Fc receptor-like 5 (FCRL5/FcRH5) is a low-affinity IgG Fc receptor expressed on B cells and is an actively pursued antibody target in multiple myeloma. Here, we show that common Fc function-silencing mutations do not impair FCRL5-mediated activity and therefore attenuate, rather than eliminate, Fc effector function. The crystal structure of the FCRL5-IgG1 Fc complex, solved at 3.4 Å resolution, revealed that FCRL5 binds IgG1 Fc in a 1:1 complex through a binding mode distinct from that of classical Fcγ receptors, explaining why mutations that attenuate Fc effector function spare FCRL5 binding. Fc-engineered antibodies that selectively engage FCRL5 inhibited B cell receptor-induced Ca 2+ flux in FCRL5-expressing B cells. These findings demonstrate that Fc-attenuated therapeutic IgG retains the ability to engage FCRL5, identifying an unappreciated pathway for B cell modulation.

Herpers, Bart M. [Department of Biomedical Enginee↗

A single column separation method for barium isotope analysis of geologic and hydrologic materials with complex matrices

Abstract The increasing significance of barium (Ba) in environmental and geologic research in recent years has led to interest in the application of the Ba isotopic composition as a tracer for natural materials with complex matrices. Most Ba isotope measurement techniques require separation of Ba from the rest of sample prior to analysis. This paper presents a method using readily available materials and disposable columns that effectively separates Ba from a range of geologic and hydrologic materials, including carbonate minerals, silicate rocks, barite, river water, and fluids with high total dissolved solids and organic content such as oil and gas brines, rapidly and without need for an additional cleanup column. The technique involves off-the-shelf columns and cation exchange resin and a two-reagent elution that uses 2.5 N HCl followed by addition of 2.0 N HNO 3 . We present data to show that major matrix elements from almost any natural material are separated from Ba in a single column pass, and that the method also effectively reduces or eliminates isobaric interferences from lanthanum and cerium.

Matecha, R. M.↗