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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12

Evaluation of the Rapid Refresh Numerical Weather Prediction Model over Arctic Alaska

Abstract Despite a need for accurate weather forecasts for societal and economic interests in the U.S. Arctic, thorough evaluations of operational numerical weather prediction in the region have been limited. In particular, the Rapid Refresh Model (RAP), which plays a key role in short-term forecasting and decision-making, has seen very limited assessment in northern Alaska, with most evaluation efforts focused on lower latitudes. In the present study, we verify forecasts from version 4 of the RAP against radiosonde, surface meteorological, and radiative flux observations from two Arctic sites on the northern Alaskan coastline, with a focus on boundary layer thermodynamic and dynamic biases, model representation of surface inversions, and cloud characteristics. We find persistent seasonal thermodynamic biases near the surface that vary with wind direction, and may be related to the RAP’s handling of sea ice and ocean interactions. These biases seem to have diminished in the latest version of the RAP (version 5), which includes refined handling of sea ice, among other improvements. In addition, we find that despite capturing boundary layer temperature profiles well overall, the RAP struggles to consistently represent strong, shallow surface inversions. Further, while the RAP seems to forecast the presence of clouds accurately in most cases, there are errors in the simulated characteristics of these clouds, which we hypothesize may be related to the RAP’s treatment of mixed-phase clouds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Towards complete assignment of the infrared spectrum of the protonated water cluster H + (H 2 O) 21

The spectroscopic features of protonated water species in dilute acid solutions have been long sought after for understanding the microscopic behavior of the proton in water with gas-phase water clusters H + (H 2 O) n extensively studied as bottom-up model systems. We present a new protocol for the calculation of the infrared (IR) spectra of complex systems, which combines the fragment-based Coupled Cluster method and anharmonic vibrational quasi-degenerate perturbation theory, and demonstrate its accuracy towards the complete and accurate assignment of the IR spectrum of the H + (H 2 O) 21 cluster. The site-specific IR spectral signatures reveal two distinct structures for the internal and surface four-coordinated water molecules, which are ice-like and liquid-like, respectively. The effect of inter-molecular interaction between water molecules is addressed, and the vibrational resonance is found between the O-H stretching fundamental and the bending overtone of the nearest neighboring water molecule. The revelation of the spectral signature of the excess proton offers deeper insight into the nature of charge accommodation in the extended hydrogen-bonding network underpinning this aqueous cluster.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

An Overview of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Uncertainty Assessment Accident Progression Insights

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) with Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) have completed three uncertainty analyses (UAs) as part of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) program. The SOARCA UAs included an integrated evaluation of uncertainty in accident progression, radiological release, and offsite health consequence projections. The UA for Peach Bottom, a boiling-water reactor (BWR) with a Mark I containment located in the State of Pennsylvania, analyzed the unmitigated long-term station blackout SOARCA scenario. The UA for Sequoyah, a 4-loop Westinghouse pressurized-water reactor (PWR) located in the State of Tennessee, analyzed the unmitigated short-term station blackout SOARCA scenario, with a focus on issues unique to the ice condenser containment and the potential for early containment failure due to hydrogen deflagration. The UA for Surry, a 3-loop Westinghouse PWR with a sub-atmospheric large dry containment located in the State of Virginia, analyzed the unmitigated short-term station blackout SOARCA scenario including the potential for thermally-induced steam-generator tube rupture. These three UAs are currently documented in three NUREG/CR reports. This report provides input to planned NRC documentation on the insights and findings from the SOARCA UA program. The purpose of the summary report is to provide a useful reference for regulatory applications that require the evaluation of offsite consequence risk from beyond design basis event severe accidents. This report focuses on the accident progression and source term insights developed from the MELCOR analyses. MELCOR is the NRC's best-estimate, severe accident computer code used in the SOARCA UAs. In anticipation of the SOARCA UA insights work, NRC and Sandia benchmarked the response of the Peach Bottom model to selected reference calculations from the Peach Bottom SOARCA UA. Peach Bottom was the first SOARCA UA performed and was completed in 2015 using the MELCOR 1.8.6 code. The PWR SOARCA UAs evolved the original methodology and utilized the updated MELCOR 2.2 computer code. The Peach Bottom model has been systematically updated for other NRC research efforts and has been updated to MELCOR 2.2. computer code. The findings from the new reference calculations using the updated model with the MELCOR 2.2 code are also integrated into the report. A second objective is an assessment of the applicability of the results to the other nuclear reactors in the U.S. As the key findings are reviewed, judgments are presented on the applicability of the results to other U.S. nuclear power plants. An important objective of the SOARCA program relied on high- fidelity plant-specific modeling. However, the nature of the insights and conclusions allowed judgements to be made on the applicability of the various insights to the same general classification of plant (i.e., BWR or PWR) or the entire fleet of plants. Finally, the results from the SOARCA UA accident progression calculations contain a wealth of information not previously documented in the NUREG/CRs. This report includes new but related information that can be used to benchmark past or support future regulatory decisions related to severe accidents. The new work includes a benchmark of the NUREG-1465 licensing source term definitions, the variability of key accident progression events and timing to radionuclide release, and an improved understanding of the timing and source terms from consequential steam generator tube ruptures. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Sandia authors gratefully acknowledge the significant technical and programmatic contributions from the NRC SOARCA team which are reflected throughout the report. Dr. Tina Ghosh has been involved throughout the SOARCA UAs, providing the primary managerial and technical oversight. The long lists of NRC and Sandia contributors from the SOARCA UAs are cited in the three NUREG/CRs and are also gratefully acknowledged by the small team of authors compiling the results of their efforts. Significant technical contributions, advice, and reviews were provided by Dr. Hossein Esmaili, Dr. Alfred Hathaway, and Dr. Edward Fuller (retired) of the NRC. Dr. Randal Gauntt (retired), Mr. Patrick Mattie, Mr. Joseph Jones (retired), and Dr. Doug Osborn from Sandia are recognized as the SOARCA UA managers guiding the past efforts. There is a comparable list of project managers at the NRC including Ms. Patricia Santiago, Dr. Salman Haq, and Mr. Jon Barr. Sadly, we have lost Mr. Charlie Tinkler and Mr. Robert Prato, who were important contributors to the original SOARCA project. Finally, Mr. Kyle Ross and Mr. Mark Leonard have also retired but were significant technical contributors. Mr. Kyle Ross was the technical lead on all three SOARCA UAs and the original pressurized water reactor SOARCA study. Mr. Leonard was the technical lead on the original boiling water reactor SOARCA study and a key contributor to the first Peach Bottom SOARCA UA. iv

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Ice rule breakdown and frustrated antiferrotoroidicity in an artificial colloidal Cairo ice

Abstract We combine experiments and numerical simulations to investigate the low energy states and the emergence of topological defects in an artificial colloidal ice in the Cairo geometry. This type of geometry is characterized by a mixed coordination ( z ), with coexistence of both z = 3 and z = 4 vertices. We realize this particle ice by confining field tunable paramagnetic colloidal particles within a lattice of topographic double wells at a one to one filling using optical tweezers. By raising the interaction strength via an applied magnetic field, we find that the ice rule breaks down, and positive monopoles with charge q = + 2 accumulate in the z = 4 vertices and are screened by negative ones ( q = − 1 ) in the z = 3. The resulting, strongly coupled state remains disordered. Further, via analysis of the mean chirality associated to each pentagonal plaquette, we find that the disordered ensemble for this geometry is massively degenerate and it corresponds to a frustrated antiferrotoroid.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Effects of Pollen on Hydrometeors and Precipitation in a Convective System

Anemophilous (wind-driven) pollen is one type of primary biological aerosol particle, which can rupture under high humidity conditions and form smaller sub-pollen particles (SPPs). Both pollen and SPPs can reach the upper troposphere under convective conditions, acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nucleating particles (INPs), thus influencing cloud formation and precipitation. However, the impacts of these biological aerosols on cold cloud formation and local climate remain unclear as there are large uncertainties on their emission flux and ice nucleating abilities. Here, we incorporate pollen emission and rupture processes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) simulations and update the Morrison microphysics scheme within WRF-Chem using aerosol-aware INP parameterizations to account for pollen in addition to other anthropogenic and biogenic aerosol. INP parameterizations for pollen and SPP are derived from laboratory experiments. When including pollen rupture rates as observed in a series of chamber studies, SPP concentrations increase, leading to an increase of cloud ice and water by up to 50% and potentially extending the duration of the convective system. Among all simulated hydrometeors, graupel and raindrops exhibit the largest enhancements from the inclusion of SPPs, with intensifying precipitation at the backside of the convective system and a greater spatial extent. Sensitivity simulations indicate that SPPs have a greater effect on cloud microphysical processes than whole pollen grains, and further observational evidence is needed to constrain these processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the Correspondence Between Atmosphere-Only and Coupled Simulations for Radiative Feedbacks and Forcing From CO 2

Atmosphere-only experiments are widely used to investigate climate feedbacks simulated in more computationally expensive fully coupled global climate model simulations. We confirm that this remains a valid approach by comparing the radiative feedbacks and forcing between coupled and atmosphere-only simulations for the latest models taking part in the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). For global-mean cloud feedbacks, we find a better than previously known correspondence between these experiments, which applies even to the response of individual cloud properties (amount, altitude, and optical depth) and holds even when considering atmosphere-only simulations of only 1 yr duration. For regional cloud feedbacks, the correspondence between the two experiments is generally present at every geographic location except for the tropical Pacific but takes longer experiments to reveal. For the lapse rate and surface albedo feedbacks, the correspondence between the two experiments is weaker due to the non-uniform warming pattern and loss of sea ice in the coupled experiment. For the across-model relationship between 4xCO 2 effective radiative forcing and feedback, we find a different behavior across experiments in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, casting doubt on the physical significance of previous results that highlighted an anti-correlation between the two quantities. Overall, these results confirm the utility of atmosphere-only experiments particularly to study cloud feedbacks, which are the dominant source of inter-model spread in climate sensitivity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Detection of multi-modal Doppler spectra – Part 1: Establishing characteristic signals in radar moment data

Vertically pointing millimeter-wavelength radars provide a wealth of information about cloud and precipitation particle properties. Doppler spectral data can inform on how particles of varying vertical velocities contribute to the total backscattered power observed. It is more computationally cost effective to process moment data instead of spectra data, but doing so leaves valuable information on the cutting room floor. To confidently identify a multi-modal spectra event, in which two or more modes are present within a layer, Doppler spectral data are essential. This means long-term identification of layers featuring multi-modal spectra can be cost prohibitive. To address this, we explore three multi-modal spectra cases from winter precipitation events to determine characteristic signatures of these layers in the moment data averaged over short time periods (∼ 145 s) and explore how these layers differ from the rest of the vertical profiles. We find that the mean spectrum width and the standard deviation of mean Doppler velocity can be used to determine whether or not a layer is multi-modal. In particular, multi-modal layers in mixed-phase and ice clouds feature larger mean spectrum width (exceeding 0.17 m s −1 ) and smaller standard deviation of the mean Doppler velocity (below 0.1 m s −1 ). In Part 1 of this study, the identification criteria and methods are described. In Part 2 (Wugofski and Kumjian, 2025), we perform a verification of the method for three years of vertically pointing radar data, and explore the meteorological conditions associated with identified multi-modal spectral events.

Wugofski, Sarah [Pennsylvania State Univ., Univers↗

Data for The impact of aerosol mixing state on immersion freezing: Insights from classical nucleation theory and particle-resolved simulations

This dataset contains the values directly shown in the figures of the article "The impact of aerosol mixing state on immersion freezing: Insights from classical nucleation theory and particle-resolved simulations". This article is in preparation for submission to the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. The dataset consists of 12 NetCDF files processed from the raw output of the PartMC model. It does not include the theoretical values of frozen fraction, which can be computed using the equations provided in the paper. *New in V2: adding data for a newly included figure (INP_spectrum.nc), removing files that are no longer used in the revised manuscript figures (e.g., UNC_A_ratio=0.9_Dp=0.1.nc, UNC_A_ratio=0.9_Dp=10.0.nc, UNC_A_ratio=0.1_Dp=0.1.nc, and UNC_A_ratio=0.1_Dp=10.0.nc), and updating README.pdf accordingly.

Aerosol mixing state↗

Phonon thermal Hall effect in a metallic spin ice

It has become common knowledge that phonons can generate thermal Hall effect in a wide variety of materials, although the underlying mechanism is still controversial. We study longitudinal κ xx and transverse κ xy thermal conductivity in Pr 2 Ir 2 O 7 , which is a metallic analog of spin ice. Despite the presence of mobile charge carriers, we find that both κ xx and κ xy are dominated by phonons. A T/H scaling of κ xx unambiguously reveals that longitudinal heat current is substantially impeded by resonant scattering of phonons on paramagnetic spins. Upon cooling, the resonant scattering is strongly affected by a development of spin ice correlation and κ xx deviates from the scaling in an anisotropic way with respect to field directions. Strikingly, a set of the κ xx and κ xy data clearly shows that κ xy correlates with κ xx in its response to magnetic field including a success of the T/H scaling and its failure at low temperature. This remarkable correlation provides solid evidence that an indispensable role is played by spin-phonon scattering not only for hindering the longitudinal heat conduction, but also for generating the transverse response.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Microcarbonation of Naphthalene: An Experimental and Computational Study of Photoionization in Naphthalene-Carbon Dioxide Clusters

The photoionization of naphthalene (N)-carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) clusters was studied using tunable vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) radiation from a synchrotron in the photon range of 8.0 to 13.7 eV, in combination with time-of-flight mass spectrometry. Clusters of monomer, dimer, and trimer naphthalene with CO 2 (N­(CO 2 ) 0–6 , N 2 ­(CO 2 ) 0–3 , N3) were observed. The lowest-energy conformers were obtained via a conformer search, followed by geometry optimizations at the ωB97X-V2/aug-cc-pVTZ (monomer) and ωB97X-V2/aug-cc-pVDZ (dimer) levels of theory. Carbon dioxide was found to preferentially cluster on top of the naphthalene molecule (in an out-of-plane configuration). From the mass spectra, photoionization intensity curves (PICs) were constructed, and appearance energies (AEs) were determined. No substantial trend in AE was observed with increasing size of the naphthalene-carbon dioxide clusters; rather, AE oscillations around the value for pure naphthalene were observed. These AE oscillations are also observed in a recently studied naphthalene-water cluster system, though in this system a slight downward trend in AE for pure naphthalene clusters (N1/2/3/4) was observed. The differences between the two systems are attributed to differing interaction strengths. In conclusion, understanding these differences may aid in determining how photoprocessing can proceed differently depending on the dominant matrix component in interstellar ices.

Wannenmacher, Anna [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab↗

Antarctic Meltwater Accelerates Southern Ocean Evolution Under Projected Atmospheric Warming

Increasing basal meltwater from Antarctic ice shelves may impact the Southern Ocean properties that feed back on the rate of melting. We investigate this feedback in a high‐emissions scenario using an Earth‐system model with interactive ice‐shelf basal melting, an improvement on previous studies that did not have the capability to evolve melt rates and the ocean state self‐consistently. We find that when interactive melt increases, it primarily accelerates the evolution of a spatial pattern of continental shelf warming and cooling that is initiated by freshening and sea‐ice formation decline due to projected atmospheric warming. The competition between enhanced warming at depth from reduced ventilation and enhanced continental shelf cooling from reduced dense water export leads to net ~35% reduction in ice‐shelf meltwater input into the Southern Ocean over the 21st century. Omitting this feedback introduces a bias in the timing of projected ocean‐melt‐driven ice loss from Antarctica.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Development and Validation of a Simulation Testbed for the Intelligent Building Agents Laboratory (IBAL) Using TRNSYS

This paper documents the development and validation of a dynamic primary cooling and thermal storage system simulation testbed. The system simulation testbed, sIBAL, is based on the Intelligent Building Agents Laboratory (IBAL) at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which is a research infrastructure and testbed for the development, evaluation, and demonstration of intelligent control algorithms. The sIBAL testbed developed in this project will serve as a virtual twin of the real facility for future control algorithm development. The details of the methodologies used to develop and validate the simulation testbed, which replicates the dynamic behaviors of the primary cooling and ice storage system in the IBAL facility, are presented. The simulation testbed was developed in TRNSYS using built-in component models and MATLAB functions to replicate the two water-cooled chillers, a thermal storage tank, pumps, valves and other components for four different operation modes. Experiments on IBAL components were designed and executed to generate experimental data for model development and verification of the simulation platform. The validation of the simulation results was carried out in two phases: 1) independent component simulations for the chillers and thermal storage tank, and 2) a combined testbed simulation of the entire hydronic system. Comparison of simulation results to the experimental data obtained from the IBAL facility showed errors within 1 °C for the temperatures outputs of both the chiller and the thermal storage model. The error is within an acceptable range for further intelligent control algorithms development. The findings from the study are summarized and presented along with areas where additional research is needed. In addition, data filtering procedures and model refinement measures utilized to improve the accuracy and accelerate the computation time of the simulation are presented.

cooling systems↗

Snow ALbedo eVOlution (SALVO) Campaign Broadband Albedo from April - June, 2024 in Utqiagivk, AK level a1

A field-portable broadband (285 – 2800 nm) albedometer was used to make spatially distributed albedo measurements on tundra and sea ice surfaces. The albedometer consists of paired upward-looking and downward-looking pyranometers, which were both connected to a data logger. The instrument was mounted approximately 1 m above the surface using a tripod and was placed on a 1.4 m-long boom to minimize the impacts of shading from the operator and to observe surfaces undisturbed by footprints (see Appendix for photos of measurement setup and uncertainty assessment). Albedo measurements were taken parallel to the 200-m albedo lines at 5-m increments (41 measurements) ~1.2 m south of the line. On the operator’s end of the boom, there was a bubble level that was aligned with the bubble level on the upward-looking pyranometer. To take a measurement, the operator first relocated the tripod to the measurement location, then leveled the instrument and held it level for at least twice the pyranometers’ response time (5 or 15 seconds, see below), and finally depressed a trigger on the data logger. The data logger recorded the instantaneous voltage on both pyranometers, the measurement number, and the time. The data logger also converted the voltages to irradiances, and from these computed the ratio (outgoing/incoming) for albedo, which could be checked in the field. The operator recorded in a field notebook the measurement number that corresponded with the locations on the line and any pertinent notes (e.g., invalid measurements). With this setup, a trained operator could measure a 200-m albedo line (41 measurements) in approximately 30 minutes. Measurements were made within 3 hours of solar noon. The data logger had sufficient storage capacity to record all measurements from the campaign, but data were downloaded to a computer after each measurement day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Grand Challenge "Uncertainty Project" to Accelerate Advances in Earth System Predictability: AI-Enabled Concepts and Applications

This proposal is emerging from GISS ModelE3 ESM development in the area of cloud physics, so we begin with an example of research needs/gaps from that work. Here, some of our greatest development concerns arise where we lack fundamental process-level understanding, as in ice formation. Namely, it is currently unclear what is the main process that is forming the majority of ice crystals in commonly occurring convection, apparently via secondary ice production at warm temperatures. We are keenly awaiting laboratory data for candidate mechanisms, which is not yet in hand to crucially establish their efficiency. Our progress is also hampered by a lack of uncertainty characterization in currently available measurements of ice crystal number size distributions. Furthermore, the same multiplication process may be responsible for a majority of ice crystals in many extratropical mixed-phase clouds, whose variable representation in CMIP6 ESMs may be a leading cause of differences in cloud phase feedback and ECS. Yet we have been required to deliver an ESM with the cloud physics knowledge at hand. The proposed grand challenge project is AI-enabled via application of machine learning (ML) to climate model and observational data streams (focal area 3), and applications include AI-guided observing system design and model/component/parameterization selection (areas 1 and 2). The project is structurally agnostic as to whether model or observing system components use AI approaches or not, but uncertainties must be estimated and propagatable in both.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modelling and simulation of brinicle formation

Below the Arctic sea ice, under the right conditions, a flux of icy brine flows down into the sea. The icy brine has a much lower fusion point and is denser than normal seawater. As a result, it sinks while freezing everything around it, forming an ice channel called a brinicle (also known as ice stalactite). In this paper, we develop a mathematical model for this phenomenon, assuming cylindrical symmetry. The fluid is considered to be viscous and quasi-stationary. The heat and salt transport are weakly coupled to the fluid motion and are modelled with the corresponding conservation equations, accounting for diffusive and convective effects. Finite-element discretization is employed to solve the coupled system of partial differential equations. We find that the model can capture the general behaviour of the physical system and generate brinicle-like structures while also recovering dendrite composition, which is a physically expected feature aligned with previous experimental results. This represents, to our knowledge, the first complete model proposed that captures the global structure of the physical phenomenon even though it has some discrepancies, such as brine accumulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Machine-learning-assisted insight into spin ice Dy 2 Ti 2 O 7

Complex behavior poses challenges in extracting models from experiment. An example is spin liquid formation in frustrated magnets like Dy 2 Ti 2 O 7 . Understanding has been hindered by issues including disorder, glass formation, and interpretation of scattering data. Here, we use an automated capability to extract model Hamiltonians from data, and to identify different magnetic regimes. This involves training an autoencoder to learn a compressed representation of three-dimensional diffuse scattering, over a wide range of spin Hamiltonians. The autoencoder finds optimal matches according to scattering and heat capacity data and provides confidence intervals. Validation tests indicate that our optimal Hamiltonian accurately predicts temperature and field dependence of both magnetic structure and magnetization, as well as glass formation and irreversibility in Dy 2 Ti 2 O 7 . The autoencoder can also categorize different magnetic behaviors and eliminate background noise and artifacts in raw data. Our methodology is readily applicable to other materials and types of scattering problems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Magnetization dynamics of weakly interacting sub-100 nm square artificial spin ices

Artificial Spin Ice (ASI), consisting of a two dimensional array of nanoscale magnetic elements, provides a fascinating opportunity to observe the physics of out-of-equilibrium systems. Initial studies concentrated on the static, frozen state, whilst more recent studies have accessed the out-of-equilibrium dynamic, fluctuating state. This opens up exciting possibilities such as the observation of systems exploring their energy landscape through monopole quasiparticle creation, potentially leading to ASI magnetricity, and to directly observe unconventional phase transitions. In this work we have measured and analysed the magnetic relaxation of thermally active ASI systems by means of SQUID magnetometry. We have investigated the effect of the interaction strength on the magnetization dynamics at different temperatures in the range where the nanomagnets are thermally active. We have observed that they follow an Arrhenius-type Néel-Brown behaviour. An unexpected negative correlation of the average blocking temperature with the interaction strength is also observed, which is supported by Monte Carlo simulations. The magnetization relaxation measurements show faster relaxation for more strongly coupled nanoelements with similar dimensions. The analysis of the stretching exponents obtained from the measurements suggest 1-D chain-like magnetization dynamics. This indicates that the nature of the interactions between nanoelements lowers the dimensionality of the ASI from 2-D to 1-D. Finally, we present a way to quantify the effective interaction energy of a square ASI system, and compare it to the interaction energy computed with micromagnetic simulations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The importance of freeze–thaw cycles for lateral tracer transport in ice-wedge polygons

Abstract. A significant portion of the Arctic coastal plain is classified as polygonal tundra and plays a vital role in soil carbon cycling. Recent research suggests that lateral transport of dissolved carbon could exceed vertical carbon releases to the atmosphere. However, the details of lateral subsurface flow in polygonal tundra have not been well studied. We incorporated a subsurface transport process into an existing state-of-the-art hydrothermal model. The model captures the physical effects of freeze–thaw cycles on lateral flow in polygonal tundra. The new modeling capability enables non-reactive tracer movement within subsurface. We utilized this new capability to investigate the impact of freeze–thaw cycles on lateral flow in the polygonal tundra. Our study indicates the important role of freeze–thaw cycles and the freeze-up effect in lateral tracer transport, suggesting that dissolved species could be transported from the middle of the polygon to the sides within a couple of thaw seasons. Introducing lateral carbon transport into the climate models could substantially reduce the uncertainty associated with the impact of thawing permafrost.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗