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First-Order Runtime Verification using BDDs

Runtime Verification (RV) expedites the analyses of execution traces for detecting system errors and for statistical and quality analysis. Having started modestly, with checking temporal properties that are based on propositional (yes/no) values, the current practice of RV often involves properties that are parametrized by the data observed in the input trace. The specifications are based on various formalisms, such as automata, temporal logics, rule systems, and stream processing. Checking execution traces that are data intensive against a specification that imposes strong dependencies between the data, poses a nontrivial challenges; in particular if runtime verification has to be performed online, while many events that carry data appear within small time proximities. Towards achieving this goal, it was recently suggested to represent relations over the observed data values, based on BDDs, where data elements are enumerated and then converted into bit vectors. This representation provided a very simple and natural extension of an RV algorithm from propositional to first-order LTL, but more importantly, was shown to contribute to the memory compactness and to the speed, as was demonstrated using a corresponding implementation. We extend here the capabilities of BDD-based RV with the ability to express timing constraints, where the monitored events include (integer) clock values. We show how to efficiently operate on BDDs that represent both relations on (enumerations of) values and time dependencies, as required by the addition of the time constraints. We demonstrate our algorithm with an efficient implementation and provide experimental results.

Peled, Doron↗

Scaling open-weight large language models for hydropower regulatory information extraction: A systematic analysis

Information extraction from regulatory and technical documents using large language models (LLMs) involves practical trade-offs between extraction quality and computational cost. We evaluate eight open-weight LLMs spanning 0.6B–70B parameters on hydropower licensing documents and report deployment-oriented evidence under a unified extraction schema and evaluation protocol. Across the model set, we observe clear scale-dependent trends in both baseline extraction quality and the effectiveness of reflective reasoning (self-checking) under our fixed-prompt, no-augmentation setting. Mid-scale models often provide a favorable balance of accuracy and efficiency, whereas the smallest models show limited or inconsistent gains from the reasoning variants tested. Larger models achieve the highest overall F1 scores but incur substantially greater compute and infrastructure requirements. We further find that reliability failure modes can distort conventional metrics in this domain: in particular, high recall can coincide with systematic extraction errors when models fabricate values for fields that are absent from the source text, underscoring the importance of conservative null handling and evidence-grounded evaluation. Overall, our study provides a reproducible resource–performance comparison for open-weight LLM-based extraction in hydropower regulatory documentation and offers practical guidance for model selection under different deployment constraints.

Evaluation protocol↗

A Search for the 3.5 keV Line from the Milky Way's Dark Matter Halo with HaloSat

Previous detections of an X-ray emission line near 3.5 keV in galaxy clusters and other dark-matter-dominated objects have been interpreted as observational evidence for the decay of sterile neutrino dark matter. Motivated by this, we report on a search for a 3.5 keV emission line from the Milky Way's galactic dark matter halo with HaloSat. As a single pixel, collimated instrument, HaloSat observations are impervious to potential systematic effects due to grazing incidence reflection and CCD pixelization, and thus may offer a check on possible instrumental systematic errors in previous analyses. We report nondetections of a ~3.5 keV emission line in four HaloSat observations near the Galactic center. In the context of the sterile neutrino decay interpretation of the putative line feature, we provide 90% confidence level upper limits on the 3.5 keV line flux for a field centered 18.6 degrees from the Galactic center and the corresponding 7.1 keV sterile neutrino mixing angle: F ≤ 0.077 ph/((sq. cm)(s)(sr)) and sin^2(2θ) ≤ 4.25 x 10^(-11). The HaloSat mixing angle upper limit was calculated using a modern parameterization of the Milky Way's dark matter distribution, and in order to compare with previous limits, we also report the limit calculated using a common historical model. The HaloSat mixing angle upper limit places constraints on a number of previous mixing angle estimates derived from observations of the Milky Way's dark matter halo and galaxy clusters, and excludes several previous detections of the line. The upper limits cannot, however, entirely rule out the sterile neutrino decay interpretation of the 3.5 keV line feature.

E. M. Silich↗

Predictive Attitude Estimation Using Global Positioning System Signals

In this paper, a new algorithm is developed for attitude estimation using Global Positioning System (GPS) signals. The new algorithm is based on a predictive filtering scheme designed for spacecraft without rate measuring devices. The major advantage of this new algorithm over traditional Kalman filter approaches is that the model error is not assumed to represented by an unbiased Gaussian noise process with known covariance, but instead is determined during the estimation process. This is achieved by simultaneously solving system optimality conditions and an output error constraint. This approach is well suited for GPS attitude estimation since some error sources that contribute to attitude inaccuracy, such as signal multipath, are known to be non-Gaussian processes. Also, the predictive filter scheme can use either GPS signals or vector observations or a combination of both for attitude estimation, so that performance characteristics can be maintained during periods of GPS attitude sensor outage. The performance of the new algorithm is tested using flight data from the REX-2 spacecraft. Results are shown using the predictive filter to estimate the attitude from both GPS signals and magnetometer measurements, and comparing that solution to a magnetometer-only based solution. Results using the new estimation algorithm indicate that GPS-based solutions are verified to within 2 degrees using the magnetometer cross-check for the REX-2 spacecraft. GPS attitude accuracy of better than 1 degree is expected per axis, but cannot be reliably proven due to inaccuracies in the magnetic field model.

Crassidis, John L.↗

Recommendations on Evidence and Process for Certification of Learning-enabled Components in Aerospace Systems

This report primarily identifies a collection of relevant and necessary evidence for assurance of machine learnt components (MLCs)—also known as learning-enabled components—integrated into aircraft systems, and gives preliminary suggestions on the elements of a certification process that invoke the identified evidence. The main focus is on feedforward neural networks that are static and trained offline through supervised learning. A brief background on the generic elements of the lifecycle of an MLC is given to contextualize the assurance considerations and, consequently, the evidence that is relevant and necessary to support certification. At the level of an MLC, those considerations relate to: (i) the consistency and correctness of MLC contributions to system functions in the context of a validated functional intent; and (ii) the absence of MLC contributions to aircraft-level failure conditions. At an ML model level, confidence in model and data properties contribute to assurance of the containing MLC, in particular: (a) generalizability and robustness of models, in the presence of inputs not previously seen during training, disturbances to inputs, and unexpected inputs; and (b) valid data, i.e., data that are at least representative, relevant, complete, and accurate. Evidence for the above span the elements of the ML lifecycle, and includes, at a minimum, lifecycle artifacts that pertain to: (1) properties of requirements capturing functional intent, safety constraints, and aspects of the intended use and operating environment; (2) model performance, model complexity and design, and algorithm choice; (3) achievement of required performance at the levels of a trained model during model development, a trained model after model development is complete, and a trained model that is transformed into an executable equivalent; (4) model implementation aspects necessary for transforming a trained model into the executable equivalent; (5) integration of the executable trained model into the containing MLC, and eventually the larger system; and, (6) lastly, the verification and validation (V&V) of each of the above. Such V&V lifecycle artifacts themselves include: aspects of coverage, e.g., of various levels of requirements by the input space of the model and the data; traceability (where applicable); application of formal methods for property specification, analysis, and checking. Examples of evidence generation methods and tools further ground the discussion on what constitutes evidence, and the contribution to assurance during certification. The identified assurance considerations and supporting evidence is not a comprehensive set. Additionally, neither what should be considered as sufficient evidence relative to the assigned criticality of an MLC, nor how criticality ought to be determined and adjusted, have been considered in this report. However, suggestions are made for potential activities of the ML lifecycle that are aimed at providing confidence that an MLC can be relied upon when integrated into its containing (aircraft) system. Those activities are proposed as candidate elements of a certification process for MLCs. The main purpose of this report to inform regulatory guidance and consensus standards that may be used to meet the safety intent of the applicable regulations.

Aviation safety↗

Five-Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) Observations: Likelihoods and Parameters from the WMAP Data

The Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP), launched in 2001, has mapped out the Cosmic Microwave Background with unprecedented accuracy over the whole sky. Its observations have led to the establishment of a simple concordance cosmological model for the contents and evolution of the universe, consistent with virtually all other astronomical measurements. The WMAP first-year and three-year data have allowed us to place strong constraints on the parameters describing the ACDM model. a flat universe filled with baryons, cold dark matter, neutrinos. and a cosmological constant. with initial fluctuations described by nearly scale-invariant power law fluctuations, as well as placing limits on extensions to this simple model (Spergel et al. 2003. 2007). With all-sky measurements of the polarization anisotropy (Kogut et al. 2003; Page et al. 2007), two orders of magnitude smaller than the intensity fluctuations. WMAP has not only given us an additional picture of the universe as it transitioned from ionized to neutral at redshift z approx.1100. but also an observation of the later reionization of the universe by the first stars. In this paper we present cosmological constraints from WMAP alone. for both the ACDM model and a set of possible extensions. We also consider tlle consistency of WMAP constraints with other recent astronomical observations. This is one of seven five-year WMAP papers. Hinshaw et al. (2008) describe the data processing and basic results. Hill et al. (2008) present new beam models arid window functions, Gold et al. (2008) describe the emission from Galactic foregrounds, and Wright et al. (2008) the emission from extra-Galactic point sources. The angular power spectra are described in Nolta et al. (2008), and Komatsu et al. (2008) present and interpret cosmological constraints based on combining WMAP with other data. WMAP observations are used to produce full-sky maps of the CMB in five frequency bands centered at 23, 33, 41, 61, and 94 GHz (Hinshaw et al. 2008). With five years of data, we are now able to place better limits on the ACDM model. as well as to move beyond it to test the composition of the universe. details of reionization. sub-dominant components, characteristics of inflation, and primordial fluctuations. We have more than doubled the amount of polarized data used for cosmological analysis. allowing a better measure of the large-scale E-mode signal (Nolta et al. 2008). To this end we describe an alternative way to remove Galactic foregrounds from low resolution polarization maps in which Galactic emission is marginalized over, providing a cross-check of our results. With longer integration we also better probe the second and third acoustic peaks in the temperature angular power spectrum, and have many more year-to-year difference maps available for cross-checking systematic effects (Hinshaw et al. 2008).

Dunkey, J.↗

Hypervelocity Impact Initiation of Explosive Transfer Lines

The Gemini, Apollo and Space Shuttle spacecraft utilized explosive transfer lines (ETL) in a number of applications. In each case the ETL was located behind substantial structure and the risk of impact initiation by micrometeoroids and orbital debris was negligible. A current NASA program is considering an ETL to synchronize the actuation of pyrobolts to release 12 capture latches in a contingency. The space constraints require placing the ETL 50 mm below the 1 mm thick 2024-T72 Whipple shield. The proximity of the ETL to the thin shield prompted analysts at NASA to perform a scoping analysis with a finite-difference hydrocode to calculate impact parameters that would initiate the ETL. The results suggest testing is required and a 12 shot test program with surplused Shuttle ETL is scheduled for February 2012 at the NASA White Sands Test Facility. Explosive initiation models are essential to the analysis and one exists in the CTH library for HNS I, but not the HNS II used in the Shuttle 2.5 gr/ft rigid shielded mild detonating cord (SMDC). HNS II is less sensitive than HNS I so it is anticipated that these results using the HNS I model are conservative. Until the hypervelocity impact test results are available, the only check on the analysis was comparison with the Shuttle qualification test result that a 22 long bullet would not initiate the SMDC. This result was reproduced by the hydrocode simulation. Simulations of the direct impact of a 7 km/s aluminum ball, impacting at 0 degree angle of incidence, onto the SMDC resulted in a 1.5 mm diameter ball initiating the SMDC and 1.0 mm ball failing to initiate it. Where one 1.0 mm ball could not initiate the SMDC, a cluster of six 1.0 mm diameter aluminum balls striking simultaneously could. Thus the impact parameters that will result in initiating SMDC located behind a Whipple shield will depend on how well the shield fragments the projectile and spreads the fragments. An end-to-end simulation of the impact of an aluminum ball onto a Whipple shield covering SMDC is problematic due to the hydrocode fracture models. Regardless, two simulations were performed resulting in a 5 mm ball initiating the SMDC and a 4 mm ball failing to initiate the SMDC.

Bjorkman, Michael D.↗

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: delensed power spectra and parameters

We present ΛCDM cosmological parameter constraints obtained from delensed microwave background power spectra. Lensing maps from a subset of DR4 data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) are used to undo the lensing effect in ACT spectra observed at 150 and 98 GHz. At 150 GHz, we remove the lensing distortion with an effective efficiency of 30% (T T), 30% (EE), 26% (T E) and 20% (BB); this results in detections of the delensing effect at 8.7σ (T T), 5.1σ (EE), 2.6σ (T E), and 2.4σ (BB) significance. The combination of 150 and 98 GHz T T, EE, and T E delensed spectra is well fit by a standard ΛCDM model. We also measure the shift in best-fit parameters when fitting delensed versus lensed spectra; while this shift does not inform our ability to measure cosmological parameters, it does provide a three-way consistency check among the lensing inferred from the best-fit parameters, the lensing in the CMB power spectrum, and the reconstructed lensing map. This shift is predicted to be zero when fitting with the correct model since both lensed and delensed spectra originate from the same region of sky. Fitting with a ΛCDM model and marginalizing over foregrounds, we find that the shift in cosmological parameters is consistent with zero. Our results show that gravitational lensing of the microwave background is internally consistent within the framework of the standard cosmological model.

Dongwon Han↗

STS-114: Discovery L-2 Countdown Status Briefing

George Diller of NASA Public Affairs hosted this briefing. Pete Nickolenko, NASA Test Director; Scott Higgenbotham, STS-114 Payload-Mission Manager; Cathy Winters, Shuttle Weather Officer were present. Pete reports his team has completed the avionics system check ups, servicing of the cryogenic tanks will take about seven hours that day, and will perform engine system checks and pad close outs come evening. Pete also summarized other standard close out activities: check ups of the Orbiter and ground communications network, rotary service, structure retraction, and external tank load (ETL). Pete reported that the mission will be 12 days with two weather contingency days, and end of mission landing scheduled at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) at approximately 11:00 in the morning, Eastern time on July 25th. Scott briefly reported that all hardware is on board Discovery, closed out, and ready to fly. Cathy reported that hurricane Dennis moved to the North and looking forward to launch. She mentioned of a new hurricane looming and will be named Emily, spotted some crosswinds which will migrate to the west, there is 30% probability weather prohibiting launch. Cathy further gave current weather forecast supported with charts: the Launch Forecast, Tanking Forecast, SRB (Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster) Forecast, CONUS and TAL Launch Sites Forecast, and with 24 hours and 48 hours turn around plan. Launch constraints, weather, crosswinds, cloud cover, ground imagery system, launch countdown, launch crews, mission management simulations, launch team simulations were topics covered with the News Media.

Source record↗

Cross-correlation of SPT-3G D1 CMB lensing and DES Y3 galaxy lensing

Measurements of the weak lensing of galaxies and of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) provide direct probes of the cosmic matter density field, but the two observables are sensitive to different spatial scales, redshift ranges, and survey systematics. Their cross-correlation thus enables consistency checks of the theoretical model and of potential systematics in either dataset. We present measurements of the cross-correlation between CMB lensing and cosmic shear over $\sim$1,300 deg$^2$ of the sky using the SPT-3G D1 CMB lensing maps and the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) shear catalogs. For the first time, we measure this cross-correlation at high significance ($\sim 14σ$) when using a polarization-only CMB lensing reconstruction that is expected to be robust against biases induced by extragalactic foregrounds. We test a variety of other CMB lensing estimators that include temperature information and exhibit different tradeoffs between foreground biases and noise, as well as a shear sample that consists of blue, star-forming galaxies and has been shown to be less impacted by galaxy intrinsic alignments. Assuming $Λ$CDM and marginalizing over uncertainties in intrinsic alignments, baryonic feedback, and various nuisance parameters, we obtain a constraint on the amplitude of matter clustering $S_8 \equiv σ_8 \sqrt{Ω_m / 0.3} = 0.833^{+0.047}_{-0.061}$, consistent with both the primary CMB results from Planck and shear-only results from DES Y3. By combining our measurement with Planck, we find mild constraints on the astrophysical processes that impact the cross-correlation. We obtain a constraint on the intrinsic alignment amplitude of the DES sample that is competitive with that from shear-only analyses, and we find a lower limit on the strength of baryonic feedback.

Ouellette, A. [Illinois U., Urbana] (ORCID:0000000↗

Autonomous Formation Flying from Ground to Flight

The cost of on-orbit operations remains a significant and increasingly visible concern in the support of satellite missions. Headway has been made in automating some ground operations; however, increased mission complexity and more precise orbital constraints have compelled continuing human involvement in mission design and maneuver planning operations. AI Solutions, Inc. in cooperation with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has tackled these more complex problems through the development of AutoCon as a tool for an automated solution. NASA is using AutoCon to automate the maneuver planning for the Earth Orbiter-1 (EO-1) mission. AutoCon was developed originally as a ground system tool. The EO-1 mission will be using a scaled version of AutoCon on-board the EO-1 satellite to command orbit adjustment maneuvers. The flight version of AutoCon plans maneuvers based on formation flying algorithms developed by GSFC, JPL, and other industry partners. In its fully autonomous mode, an AutoCon planned maneuver will be executed on-board the satellite without intervention from the ground. This paper describes how AutoCon automates maneuver planning for the formation flying constraints of the EO-1 mission. AutoCon was modified in a number of ways to automate the maneuver planning on-board the satellite. This paper describes how the interface and functionality of AutoCon were modified to support the on-board system. A significant component of this modification was the implementation of a data smoother, based on a Kalman filter, that ensures that the spacecraft states estimated by an on-board GPS receiver are as accurate as possible for maneuver planning. This paper also presents the methodology use to scale the AutoCon functionality to fit and execute on the flight hardware. This paper also presents the modes built that allow the incremental phasing in of autonomy. New technologies for autonomous operations are usually received with significant, and probably appropriate trepidation. A number of safeguards have been designed in both AutoCon and the interfacing systems to alleviate the potential of mission-impacting anomalies from the on-board autonomous system. This paper describes the error checking, input data integrity validation and limits set on maneuvers in AutoCon and the on-board system.

Chapman, Keith B.↗

Small Autonomous Aircraft Servo Health Monitoring

Small air vehicles offer challenging power, weight, and volume constraints when considering implementation of system health monitoring technologies. In order to develop a testbed for monitoring the health and integrity of control surface servos and linkages, the Autonomous Aircraft Servo Health Monitoring system has been designed for small Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle (UAV) platforms to detect problematic behavior from servos and the air craft structures they control, This system will serve to verify the structural integrity of an aircraft's servos and linkages and thereby, through early detection of a problematic situation, minimize the chances of an aircraft accident. Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University's rotary-winged UAV has an Airborne Power management unit that is responsible for regulating, distributing, and monitoring the power supplied to the UAV's avionics. The current sensing technology utilized by the Airborne Power Management system is also the basis for the Servo Health system. The Servo Health system measures the current draw of the servos while the servos are in Motion in order to quantify the servo health. During a preflight check, deviations from a known baseline behavior can be logged and their causes found upon closer inspection of the aircraft. The erratic behavior nay include binding as a result of dirt buildup or backlash caused by looseness in the mechanical linkages. Moreover, the Servo Health system will allow elusive problems to be identified and preventative measures taken to avoid unnecessary hazardous conditions in small autonomous aircraft.

Quintero, Steven↗

A Survey of Formal Methods for Intelligent Swarms

Swarms of intelligent autonomous spacecraft, involving complex behaviors and interactions, are being proposed for future space exploration missions. Such missions provide greater flexibility and offer the possibility of gathering more science data than traditional single spacecraft missions. The emergent properties of swarms make these missions powerful, but simultaneously far more difficult to design, and to assure that the proper behaviors will emerge. These missions are also considerably more complex than previous types of missions, and NASA, like other organizations, has little experience in developing or in verifying and validating these types of missions. A significant challenge when verifying and validating swarms of intelligent interacting agents is how to determine that the possible exponential interactions and emergent behaviors are producing the desired results. Assuring correct behavior and interactions of swarms will be critical to mission success. The Autonomous Nano Technology Swarm (ANTS) mission is an example of one of the swarm types of missions NASA is considering. The ANTS mission will use a swarm of picospacecraft that will fly from Earth orbit to the Asteroid Belt. Using an insect colony analogy, ANTS will be composed of specialized workers for asteroid exploration. Exploration would consist of cataloguing the mass, density, morphology, and chemical composition of the asteroids, including any anomalous concentrations of specific minerals. To perform this task, ANTS would carry miniaturized instruments, such as imagers, spectrometers, and detectors. Since ANTS and other similar missions are going to consist of autonomous spacecraft that may be out of contact with the earth for extended periods of time, and have low bandwidths due to weight constraints, it will be difficult to observe improper behavior and to correct any errors after launch. Providing V&V (verification and validation) for this type of mission is new to NASA, and represents the cutting edge in system correctness, and requires higher levels of assurance than other (traditional) missions that use a single or small number of spacecraft that are deterministic in nature and have near continuous communication access. One of the highest possible levels of assurance comes from the application of formal methods. Formal methods are mathematics-based tools and techniques for specifying and verifying (software and hardware) systems. They are particularly useful for specifying complex parallel systems, such as exemplified by the ANTS mission, where the entire system is difficult for a single person to fully understand, a problem that is multiplied with multiple developers. Once written, a formal specification can be used to prove properties of a system (e.g., the underlying system will go from one state to another or not into a specific state) and check for particular types of errors (e.g., race or livelock conditions). A formal specification can also be used as input to a model checker for further validation. This report gives the results of a survey of formal methods techniques for verification and validation of space missions that use swarm technology. Multiple formal methods were evaluated to determine their effectiveness in modeling and assuring the behavior of swarms of spacecraft using the ANTS mission as an example system. This report is the first result of the project to determine formal approaches that are promising for formally specifying swarm-based systems. From this survey, the most promising approaches were selected and are discussed relative to their possible application to the ANTS mission. Future work will include the application of an integrated approach, based on the selected approaches identified in this report, to the formal specification of the ANTS mission.

Truszkowski, Walt↗

Autonomous Formation Flying from the Ground to Flight

The cost of on-orbit operations remains a significant and increasingly visible concern in the support of satellite missions. Headway has been made in automating some ground operations; however, increased mission complexity and more precise orbital constraints have compelled continuing human involvement in mission design and maneuver planning operations. AI Solutions, Inc. in cooperation with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has tackled these more complex problems through the development of AutoCon(TM) as a tool for an automated solution. NASA is using AutoCon(TM) to automate the maneuver planning for the Earth Orbiter-1 (EO-1) mission. AutoCon(TM) was developed originally as a ground system tool. The EO-1 mission will be using a scaled version of AutoCon(TM) on-board the EO-1 satellite to command orbit adjustment maneuvers. The flight version of AutoCon(TM) plans maneuvers based on formation flying algorithms developed by GSFC, JPL, and other industry partners. In its fully autonomous mode, an AutoCon(TM) planned maneuver will be executed on-board the satellite without intervention from the ground. This paper describes how AutoCon(TM) automates maneuver planning for the formation flying constraints of the EO-1 mission. AutoCon(TM) was modified in a number of ways to automate the maneuver planning on-board the satellite. This paper describes how the interface and functionality of AutoCon(TM) were modified to support the on-board system. A significant component of this modification was the implementation of a data smoother, based on a Kalman filter, that ensures that the spacecraft states estimated by an on-board GPS receiver are as accurate as possible for maneuver planning. This paper also presents the methodology used to scale the AutoCon(TM) functionality to fit and execute on the flight hardware. This paper also presents the modes built into the system that allow the incremental phasing in of autonomy. New technologies for autonomous operations are usually received with significant, and probably appropriate, trepidation. A number of safeguards have been designed in both AutoCon(TM) and the interfacing systems to alleviate the potential of mission-impacting anomalies from the on-board autonomous system. This paper describes the error checking, input data integrity validation, and limits set on maneuvers in AutoCon(TM) and the on-board system.

Chapman, Keith B.↗

Constraints on Dynamical Dark Energy from Multiple Probes in the Full Dark Energy Survey

We present results on dark energy evolution, assuming a time-dependent equation of state $w(a)=w_0+w_a(1-a)$, from growth and geometric probes using the full six-year Dark Energy Survey dataset: type Ia supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations, and weak gravitational lensing and galaxy clustering (3$\times$2pt). The combination yields $w_0=-0.84^{+0.10}_{-0.10}$ and $w_a=-0.44^{+0.60}_{-0.55}$, the tightest constraints ever obtained from a single survey, with $2.2σ$ deviation from a cosmological constant. Adding the DESI DR2 BAO data yields $w_0=-0.84^{+0.06}_{-0.07}$ and $w_a=-0.53^{+0.33}_{-0.28}$, representing the most stringent low-redshift-only test of dynamical dark energy to date, with a $2.3σ$ deviation. In this combination, adding 3$\times$2pt doubles the constraining power. Finally, when combined with primary CMB information, we obtain $w_0=-0.82^{+0.05}_{-0.05}$, $w_a=-0.63^{+0.21}_{-0.18}$, with a $3.0σ$ deviation. We find that including 3$\times$2pt in the previously studied SN + DESI BAO + CMB combination leaves the significance essentially unchanged ($3.2 σ$ to $3.0σ$) while improving the figure of merit by $\sim$10%. We systematically investigate the impact of leaving out each one of the probes and find that the significance of the deviation from a cosmological constant ranges from 2.3 to 3.2$σ$, with best-fit parameters consistently in the region $w_0 >-1$ and $w_a <0$. Excluding SN from the all data combination yields a $2.6σ$ departure from $Λ$CDM, providing a cross-check independent of supernova photometric calibration. These results support the weak preference for evolving dark energy reported by several recent cosmological analyses. By combining growth and geometric probes from a single survey, this work realizes the multi-probe dark energy program envisioned at the inception of DES.

Abbott, T. M.C. [Cerro-Tololo InterAmerican Obs.] ↗

Reanalysis of X-ray emission from M87. 2: The multiphase medium

In a previous paper, we showed that a single-phase model for the gas around M87 simultaneously explained most available X-ray data. Total enclosed masses derived from the model, however, fell well below the determinations from optical measurements. In this paper, we consider possible solutions to the inconsistency, including two multiphase medium models for the gas and the consequences of systematic errors of the Einstein Focal Point Crystal Spectrometer (FPCS). First, we find that when constraints from optical mass determinations are not considered, the best-fit model to the X-ray data is always the single-phase model. Multiphase models or consideration of FPCS systematic errors are required only when optical mass constraints are included. We find that the cooling time model of White & Sarazin adequately explains the available X-ray data and predicts total masses which agree with optical measurements. An ad hoc power-law multiphase does not. This shows both that the existence of mass dropping out of the ambient phase is consistent with the data and that the cooling-time model gives a reasonable parameterization of the dropout rate. Our derived mass accretion rate is similar to previous determinations. The implications of this result for cluster mass determinations in general are discussed. We then consider 'self absorbing' models where we assume that material dropping out of the ambient medium goes completely into X-ray absorbing gas. The resulting internal absorption is small compared to Galactic absorption at most radii. The models are therefore indistinguishable from models with only Galactic absorption. We finally show that it is alternatively possible to simultaneously fit optical mass measurements and X-ray data with a single-phase model if some of the observed FPCS line fluxes are too high by the maximum systematic error. This possiblity can be checked with new data from satellites such as ASCA.

Tsai, John C.↗

Validation Assessment for the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) Data Product Version 5

The post-launch Cal/Val phase of the SMAP mission is guided by two primary objectives for each science product team: 1) to calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithms, and 2) validate accuracies of the science data products as specified in the SMAP Level-1 mission science requirements. Algorithm science and product maintenance activities during the SMAP extended mission phase have also involved periodic algorithm calibration and product refinements to maintain or enhance product consistency and performance as well as science utility. This report provides an assessment of the latest (Version 5) SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) product. The L4_C Version 5 (v5) global record now spans more than six years (March 2015 – present) of SMAP operations and has benefited from five major reprocessing updates to the operational product. These reprocessing events and L4_C product release updates have incorporated various algorithm refinements and calibration adjustments to account for similar refinements to the upstream GEOS land model assimilation system, SMAP brightness temperatures, and MODIS vegetation inputs used for L4_C processing. The SMAP L4_C algorithms utilize a terrestrial carbon flux model informed by daily surface and root zone soil moisture information contributed from the SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product along with optical remote sensing-based (e.g. MODIS-based) land cover and canopy fractional photosynthetic active radiation (fPAR), and other ancillary biophysical data. The carbon flux model estimates global daily net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and the component carbon fluxes, namely, vegetation gross primary production (GPP) and soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh). Other L4_C product elements include surface (~0-5 cm depth) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and associated environmental constraints to these processes, including soil moisture-related controls on GPP and ecosystem respiration (Kimball et al. 2014, Jones et al. 2017). The L4_C product addresses SMAP carbon cycle science objectives by: 1) providing a direct link between terrestrial carbon fluxes and underlying freeze/thaw and soil moisture-related constraints to these processes, 2) documenting primary connections between terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, and 3) improving understanding of terrestrial carbon sink activity. The SMAP L4_C algorithms and operational product are mature and at a CEOS Validation Stage 4 level (Jackson et al. 2012) based on extensive validation of the multi-year record against a diverse array of independent benchmarks, well characterized global performance, and systematic refinements gained from five major reprocessing events. There are no Level-1 mission science requirements for the L4_C product; however, self-imposed requirements have been established focusing on NEE as the primary product field for validation, and on demonstrating L4_C accuracy and success in meeting product science requirements (Jackson et al. 2012). The other L4_C product fields also have strong utility for carbon science applications (e.g., Liu et al. 2019, Endsley et al. 2020); however, analysis of these other fields is considered secondary relative to primary validation activities focusing on NEE. The L4_C targeted accuracy requirements are to meet or exceed a mean unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE, or standard deviation of the error) for NEE of 1.6 g C m-2 d-1 and 30 g C m-2 yr-1, emphasizing northern (≥45°N) boreal and arctic ecosystems; this accuracy is similar to that of tower eddy covariance measurement-based observations (Baldocchi 2008). Methods used for the latest v5 L4_C product performance and validation assessment have been established from the SMAP Cal/Val plan and previous studies (Jackson et al. 2012, Jones et al. 2017) and include: 1) consistency evaluations of the product fields against earlier product releases (version 4 or earlier); 2) comparisons of daily carbon flux estimates with independent tower eddy 4covariance measurement-based daily carbon (CO2) flux observations from core tower validation sites (CVS); and 3) consistency checks against other global carbon products, including soil carbon inventory records, global GPP records derived from tower observation upscaling methods, and satellite-based observations of canopy solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) as a surrogate for GPP. Metrics used to evaluate relative agreement between L4_C product fields and observational benchmarks include correlation (r-value), RMSE differences, bias and model sensitivity diagnostics. Following these validation criteria, the present report provides a validation assessment of the latest L4_C product release (v5). Detailed descriptions of the L4_C algorithm and additional global product accuracy and performance results are given elsewhere (Jones et al. 2017, Endsley et al. 2020). The v5 L4_C product replaces earlier product versions and continues to show: (i) accuracy and performance levels meeting or exceeding SMAP L4_C science requirements; (ii) improvement over the previous product version (version 4); and (iii) suitability for a diversity of science applications. Example L4_C applications from the recent literature include clarifying environmental trends and controls on the northern terrestrial carbon sink (Liu et al. 2019), diagnosing drought-related impacts on ecosystem productivity (Li et al. 2020), and regional monitoring of cropland conditions for projecting annual yields (Wurster et al. 2020). 2EXPECTED L4_C ALGORITHM AND PRODUCTPERFORMANCE The L4_C algorithm performance, including variance and uncertainty estimates of model outputs, was determined during the mission pre-launch phase through spatially explicit model sensitivity studies using available model inputs similar to those currently being used for operational production and evaluating the resulting model simulations over the observed range of northern (≥45 °N) and global conditions (Kimball et al. 2012, Entekhabi et al. 2014). The L4_C algorithm options were also evaluated during the mission prelaunch phase, including deriving canopy fPAR from lower order NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) inputs in lieu of using MODIS (MOD15) fPAR; and including an explicit model representation of boreal fire disturbance recovery impacts. These results indicated that the L4_C accuracy requirements (i.e., NEE ubRMSE ≤ 30 g C m-2 yr-1or ≤ 1.6 g C m-2 d-1) could be met from the baseline algorithms over more than 82% and 89% of global and northern vegetated land areas, respectively (Yi et al. 2013, Kimball et al. 2014). The global L4_C algorithm error budget for NEE derived during the mission prelaunch phase indicated that the estimated NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is proportional to GPP and is therefore larger in higher biomass productivity areas, including forests and croplands (Kimball et al. 2014). Likewise, NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is expected to be lower in less-productive areas, including grasslands and shrublands. Expected model NEE ubRMSE levels were also generally within targeted accuracy levels for characteristically less-productive boreal and Arctic biomes, even though relative model error as a proportion of total productivity (NEE RMSE / GPP) may be large in these areas. The estimated NEE uncertainty was lower than expected in some warmer tropical high biomass productivity areas (e.g. Amazon rainforest) because of reduced low temperature and moisture constraints to the L4_C respiration calculations so that the bulk of model uncertainty is contributed by GPP in these areas. Model NEE uncertainty in the African Congo was estimated to

SMAP↗

Advanced EVA Suit Camera System Development Project

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) is developing a new extra-vehicular activity (EVA) suit known as the Advanced EVA Z2 Suit. All of the improvements to the EVA Suit provide the opportunity to update the technology of the video imagery. My summer internship project involved improving the video streaming capabilities of the cameras that will be used on the Z2 Suit for data acquisition. To accomplish this, I familiarized myself with the architecture of the camera that is currently being tested to be able to make improvements on the design. Because there is a lot of benefit to saving space, power, and weight on the EVA suit, my job was to use Altium Design to start designing a much smaller and simplified interface board for the camera's microprocessor and external components. This involved checking datasheets of various components and checking signal connections to ensure that this architecture could be used for both the Z2 suit and potentially other future projects. The Orion spacecraft is a specific project that may benefit from this condensed camera interface design. The camera's physical placement on the suit also needed to be determined and tested so that image resolution can be maximized. Many of the options of the camera placement may be tested along with other future suit testing. There are multiple teams that work on different parts of the suit, so the camera's placement could directly affect their research or design. For this reason, a big part of my project was initiating contact with other branches and setting up multiple meetings to learn more about the pros and cons of the potential camera placements we are analyzing. Collaboration with the multiple teams working on the Advanced EVA Z2 Suit is absolutely necessary and these comparisons will be used as further progress is made for the overall suit design. This prototype will not be finished in time for the scheduled Z2 Suit testing, so my time was also spent creating a case for the original interface board that is already being used. This design is being done by use of Creo 2. Due to time constraints, I may not be able to complete the 3-D printing portion of this design, but I was able to use my knowledge of the interface board and Altium Design to help in the task. As a side project, I assisted another intern in selecting and programming a microprocessor to control linear actuators. These linear actuators will be used to move various increments of polyethylene for controlled radiation testing. For this, we began the software portion of the project using the Arduino's coding environment to control an Arduino Due and H-Bridge components. Along with the obvious learning of computer programs such as Altium Design and Creo 2, I also acquired more skills with networking and collaborating with others, being able to multi-task because of responsibilities to work on various projects, and how to set realistic goals in the work place. Like many internship projects, this project will be continued and improved, so I also had the chance to improve my organization and communication skills as I documented all of my meetings and research. As a result of my internship at JSC, I desire to continue a career with NASA, whether that be through another internship or possibly a co-op. I am excited to return to my university and continue my education in electrical engineering because of all of my experiences at JSC.

Mock, Kyla↗