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At least 217 records · Page 12

Phase 1 of the earth resources data analysis program

Research completed in the Earth Resources Data Analysis Program is discussed along with recommendations for future study. Projects discussed include use of the Cholesky decomposition in feature selection and classification algorithms; optimal feature selection and extraction, probability density estimation and nonparametric classifiers; use of spatial information in classification; and model for crop row reflectance. The installation of LARSYS on the ICSA's IBM 370/155 is discussed, and a list of technical reports is included.

Source record↗

An evaluation of the spatial resolution of soil moisture information

Rainfall-amount patterns in the central regions of the U.S. were assessed. The spatial scales of surface features and their corresponding microwave responses in the mid western U.S. were investigated. The usefulness for U.S. government agencies of soil moisture information at scales of 10 km and 1 km. was ascertained. From an investigation of 494 storms, it was found that the rainfall resulting from the passage of most types of storms produces patterns which can be resolved on a 10 km scale. The land features causing the greatest problem in the sensing of soil moisture over large agricultural areas with a radiometer are bodies of water. Over the mid-western portions of the U.S., water occupies less than 2% of the total area, the consequently, the water bodies will not have a significant impact on the mapping of soil moisture. Over most of the areas, measurements at a 10-km resolution would adequately define the distribution of soil moisture. Crop yield models and hydrological models would give improved results if soil moisture information at scales of 10 km was available.

Hardy, K. R.↗

Spectral estimators of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation in corn canopies

Most models of crop growth and yield require an estimate of canopy leaf area index (LAI) or absorption of radiation. Relationships between photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) absorbed by corn canopies and the spectral reflectance of the canopies were investigated. Reflectance factor data were acquired with a LANDSAT MSS band radiometer. From planting to silking, the three spectrally predicted vegetation indices examined were associated with more than 95% of the variability in absorbed PAR. The relationships developed between absorbed PAR and the three indices were evaluated with reflectance factor data acquired from corn canopies planted in 1979 through 1982. Seasonal cumulations of measured LAI and each of the three indices were associated with greater than 50% of the variation in final grain yields from the test years. Seasonal cumulations of daily absorbed PAR were associated with up to 73% of the variation in final grain yields. Absorbed PAR, cumulated through the growing season, is a better indicator of yield than cumulated leaf area index. Absorbed PAR may be estimated reliably from spectral reflectance data of crop canopies.

Gallo, K. P.↗

Spectral estimators of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation in corn canopies

Most models of crop growth and yield require an estimate of canopy leaf area index (LAI) or absorption of radiation. Relationships between photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) absorbed by corn canopies and the spectral reflectance of the canopies were investigated. Reflectance factor data were acquired with a Landsat MSS band radiometer. From planting to silking, the three spectrally predicted vegetation indices examined were associated with more than 95 percent of the variability in absorbed PAR. The relationships developed between absorbed PAR and the three indices were evaluated with reflectance factor data acquired from corn canopies planted in 1979 through 1982. Seasonal cumulations of measured LAI and each of the three indices were associated with greater than 50 percent of the variation in final grain yields from the test years. Seasonal cumulations of daily absorbed PAR were associated with up to 73 percent of the variation in final grain yields. Absorbed PAR, cumulated through the growing season, is a better indicator of yield than cumulated leaf area index. Absorbed PAR may be estimated reliably from spectral reflectance data of crop canopies.

Gallo, K. P.↗

Observed Impacts

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

Examining the Responses of Radiation Use Efficiency to C02: A New Approach

Radiation use efficiency (RUE) has been a key parameter for developing simpler models of crop growth and yield. A great deal of effort has gone into measuring RUE in the field and in verifying its validity for predicting crop growth. However, a lack of data on responses of RUE to elevated C02 has resulted in the use of empirical relations that may lead to overestimates of crop yield to C02 enrichment. A new approach relating RUE to canopy quantum yield is presented that offers a more theoretical basis for estimating RUE responses to elevated C02.

Monje, Oscar↗

Integrating Water Supply Constraints into Irrigated Agricultural Simulations of California

Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water demand from plants and water supply from irrigation systems. We coupled the Water Evaluation and Planning system (WEAP) and Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) to link regional water supplies and management with field-level water demand and crop growth. WEAP-DSSAT was deployed and evaluated over Yolo County in California for corn, rice, and wheat. WEAP-DSSAT is able to reproduce the results of DSSAT under well-watered conditions and reasonably simulate observed mean yields, but has difficulty capturing yield interannual variability. Constraining irrigation supply to surface water alone reduces yields for all three crops during the 1987-1992 drought. Corn yields are reduced proportionally with water allocation, rice yield reductions are more binary based on sufficient water for flooding, and wheat yields are least sensitive to irrigation constraints as winter wheat is grown during the wet season.

Agriculture; Irrigation; Water Resources Managemen↗

Flowering Development Stage in Sorghum Estimated from Optical Polarization Data

We tested the hypothesis that we can estimate the flowering developmentstage of sorghum from measurements of the polarization of the light scattered by asorghum canopy. Such information is critically important in agricultural productionforecasting. If such information were available for each sorghum field in a region, itcould be interleaved with timely weather data and used in crop production models toobtain improved estimates of sorghum grain production for the region.

Weather Data↗

Remote Sensing Based Yield Monitoring: Application to Winter Wheat in United States and Ukraine

Accurate and timely crop yield forecasts are critical for making informed agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Earth observation data from space can contribute to agricultural monitoring, including crop yield assessment and forecasting. In this study, we present a new crop yield model based on the Difference Vegetation Index (DVI) extracted from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data at 1 km resolution and the un-mixing of DVI at coarse resolution to a pure wheat signal (100 percent of wheat within the pixel). The model was applied to estimate the national and subnational winter wheat yield in the United States and Ukraine from 2001 to 2017. The model at the subnational level shows very good performance for both countries with a coefficient of determination higher than 0.7 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of lower than 0.6 t/ha (tonnes per hectare) (15-18 percent). At the national level for the United States (US) and Ukraine the model provides a strong coefficient of determination of 0.81 and 0.86, respectively, which demonstrates good performance at this scale. The model was also able to capture low winter wheat yields during years with extreme weather events, for example 2002 in US and 2003 in Ukraine. The RMSE of the model for the US at the national scale is 0.11 t/ha (3.7 percent) while for Ukraine it is 0.27 t/ha (8.4 percent).

DVI↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-33912-DND

The agricultural, renewable energy management, and science communities need global surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes on a near real-time basis for uses such as building energy performance monitoring and seasonal crop yield modeling. The Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) FLASHFlux (Fast Longwave and SHortwave radiative Flux) data products address this need by enhancing the speed of CERES processing using simplified calibration, averaging techniques and fast radiation parameterizations to produce global fluxes within a week of satellite observations. The CERES FLASHFlux provides two data products: 1) an hourly Level 2 Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) data separately for Aqua and Terra observations, and 2) a daily Level 3 Time Interpolated and Spatially Averaged (TISA) 1degree x 1degree gridded data that combines Aqua and Terra observations. The CERES FLASHFlux Version4A includes an update to process MODIS Collection 6.1 in an improved cloud retrieval algorithm, and an update to the CERES Edition 4 angular distribution models. We inter-compared FLASHFlux Version4A, FLASHFlux Version3C, and CERES EBAF (Energy Balanced and Filled) Top-of-Atmosphere fluxes to evaluate these improvements. We also compare both SSF overpass and TISA radiative flux products to a set of surface measurement sites that are globally distributed and assess agreement. FLASHFlux TISA and CERES EBAF are used in the analysis of TOA anomalies for the annual State of Climate report. This also poster highlights the methodology use to merge the two data products by correcting the bias in FLASHFlux TISA and inter-calibrate to CERES EBAF.

Parnchai K Sawaengphokhai↗

Advances to a Global Agroclimatology Solar Insolation and Meteorological Parameter Data Base: Improved Solar Irradiance up to Hourly Temporal Resolution

A primary objective of NASA’s Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project is to facilitate the use of NASA Earth Science data holdings within the energy, agricultural, and architectural industries. To this end daily averaged solar data from several NASA projects and metrological data from a NASA assimilation model have long been reformatted and via a user friendly web based data portal (https://power.larc.nasa.gov) at the native resolution of each data products. Potential users can access solar and metrological data in a column formatted DSSAT ASCII format by entering single site specific coordinates or from an area by entering the appropriate area coordinates. Upgrades to the POWER data portal have been implemented that result in a complete upgrade of the base solar insolation data products. From the years 1984 through 2000, a new version of the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) and Clouds is utilized that reduces the RMS relative to surface measurements. Additionally, Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) SYNoptic 1x1 Degree (SYN1Deg) data products are utilized starting from January 1, 2001 through 3 months of real-time. The CERES Fast Longwave and SHortwave radiative Fluxes (FLASHFlux) is still used to provided daily data spanning from the end of SYN1Deg to within 7 days of real-time. Meteorological parameters now are taken from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) data set which provides higher resolution data products (hourly and 0.5 x 625 degree) covering the entire globe. Besides updating the solar and meteorological data products, this new version features new data products such as photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), more cloud information, estimates of soil temperatures and improved options for long-term climatological data requests. More than 36+ years daily time slices are included in the combined solar and meteorological data sets. However, perhaps the most important innovation of the POWER GIS-enabled Web Services is the provision of hourly solar and meteorological data products beginning in Jan 1, 2001. The hourly values will enable more detailed modeling and crop analysis that incorporates the diurnal variability of these parameters. The new capability is made possible by utilizing both the CERES SYN1Deg and MERRA-2 data products that include parameters at these resolutions. An assessment of both the meteorological and the solar irradiance data are based upon comparisons with globally distributed surface observations. The meteorological observations from the National Center for Environmental Information’s “Integrated Surface Database” as well as the “Global Summary of the Day” (GSOD) data files. The estimates of solar insolation are compared to the Baseline Solar Radiation Network (BSRN) and other high quality surface measurement networks. Results from the uncertainty assessments demonstrates that the NASA’s meteorological and solar irradiance data can represent a viable alternative to surface observations, particularly in data sparse regions of the world.

solar irradiance↗

Wheat Crop Traits Conferring High Yield Potential May Also Improve Yield Stability Under Climate Change

Increasing genetic wheat yield potential is considered by many as critical to increasing global wheat yields and production, baring major changes in consumption patterns. Climate change challenges breeding by making target environments less predictable, altering regional productivity and potentially increasing yield variability. Here we used a crop simulation model solution in the SIMPLACE framework to explore yield sensitivity to select trait characteristics (radiation use efficiency [RUE], fruiting efficiency and light extinction coefficient) across 34 locations representing the world’s wheat-producing environments, determining their relationship to increasing yields, yield variability and cultivar performance. The magnitude of the yield increase was trait-dependent and differed between irrigated and rainfed environments. RUE had the most prominent marginal effect on yield, which increased by about 45 % and 33 % in irrigated and rainfed sites, respectively, between the minimum and maximum value of the trait. Altered values of light extinction coefficient had the least effect on yield levels. Higher yields from improved traits were generally associated with increased inter-annual yield variability (measured by standard deviation), but the relative yield variability (as coefficient of variation) remained largely unchanged between base and improved genotypes. This was true under both current and future climate scenarios. In this context, our study suggests higher wheat yields from these traits would not increase climate risk for farmers and the adoption of cultivars with these traits would not be associated with increased yield variability.

Climate change↗

Assessing the effects of landcover and land use change on wildfire exposure and risk to communities and olive orchards in Mediterranean landscapes

A growing concern in the Mediterranean region is that recent landcover and land use change is increasing wildfire risk, or the exposure and impacts of wildfire to valued resources. However, the magnitude of these effects is not well understood given the widely diverse landscapes of communities, natural vegetation, and agricultural land. In this study, we use wildfire simulation modeling to assess how landcover and land use changes in three areas of southern Greece have affected exposure of- and fire risk to- communities and economically important permanent agriculture such as Olea europaea (European olive) orchards. We mapped agricultural and wildland fuel change from 2000 to 2020 and simulated fuel scenarios in agricultural land to assess the impacts of agricultural land practices, such as understory clearing, on fire risk. We show that wildfire exposure and risk to communities and permanent agriculture has increased in some areas due to natural fuel densification and decreased in other areas, mainly due to agricultural land expansion. These results highlight that wildfire exposure and risk are driven by local conditions including density and location of communities, spatial arrangement of natural fuels and agricultural land, and agricultural land use practices. Human settlement burn probability and modeled permanent crop loss increased with greater unmaintained agricultural area in all study areas, emphasizing the importance of agricultural land maintenance practices, such as understory clearing, to reduce fuel continuity and fire intensity. Ultimately, quantitative fire risk analyses such as this study provide a useful framework to identify areas of concern where either fuel mitigation or landowner incentives to maintain agricultural land in a less-burnable condition could be applied.

Aaron M Sparks↗

Modeling the growth dynamics of four candidate crops for Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS)

The production of food for human life support for advanced space missions will require the management of many different crops. The research to design these food production capabilities along with the waste management to recycle human metabolic wastes and inedible plant components are parts of Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS). Since complete operating CELSS were not yet built, a useful adjunct to the research developing the various pieces of a CELSS are system simulation models that can examine what is currently known about the possible assembly of subsystems into a full CELSS. The growth dynamics of four crops (wheat, soybeans, potatoes, and lettuce) are examined for their general similarities and differences within the context of their important effects upon the dynamics of the gases, liquids, and solids in the CELSS. Data for the four crops currently under active research in the CELSS program using high-production hydroponics are presented. Two differential equations are developed and applied to the general characteristics of each crop growth pattern. Model parameters are determined by closely approximating each crop's data.

Volk, Tyler↗

Monitoring Crop Yield in USA Using a Satellite-Based Climate-Variability Impact Index

A quantitative index is applied to monitor crop growth and predict agricultural yield in continental USA. The Climate-Variability Impact Index (CVII), defined as the monthly contribution to overall anomalies in growth during a given year, is derived from 1-km MODIS Leaf Area Index. The growing-season integrated CVII can provide an estimate of the fractional change in overall growth during a given year. In turn these estimates can provide fine-scale and aggregated information on yield for various crops. Trained from historical records of crop production, a statistical model is used to produce crop yield during the growing season based upon the strong positive relationship between crop yield and the CVII. By examining the model prediction as a function of time, it is possible to determine when the in-season predictive capability plateaus and which months provide the greatest predictive capacity.

Zhang, Ping↗

Perspectives on Climate Effects on Agriculture: The International Efforts of AgMIP in Sub-Saharan Africa

Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is experiencing climate change-related effects that call for integrated regional assessments, yet capacity for these assessments has been low. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is advancing research on integrated regional assessments of climate change that include climate, crop, and economic modeling and analysis. Through AgMIP, regional integrated assessments are increasingly gaining momentum in SSA, and multi-institutional regional research teams (RRTs) centered in East, West, and Southern· Africa are generating new information on climate change impacts and adaptation in selected agricultural systems. The research in Africa is organized into four RRTs and a coordination team. Each of the RRTs in SSA is composed of scientists from the Consultative Group of International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) institutions, National Agriculture Research institutes (NARs), and universities consisting of experts in crop and economic modeling, climate, and information technology. Stakeholder involvement to inform specific agricultural systems to be evaluated, key outputs, and the representative agricultural pathways (RAPs), is undertaken at two levels: regional and national, in order to contribute to decision making at these levels. Capacity building for integrated assessment (lA) is a key component that is undertaken continuously through interaction with experts in regional and SSA-wide workshops, and through joint creation of tools. Many students and research affiliates have been identified and entrained as part of capacity building in IA. Bi-monthly updates on scholarly publications in climate change in Africa also serve as a vehicle for knowledge-sharing. With 60 scientists already trained and actively engaged in IA and over 80 getting monthly briefs on the latest information on climate change, a climate-informed community of experts is gradually taking shape in SSA. (See Part 2, Appendices 3-5 in this volume for AgMIP Regional Workshop reports.)

Kihara, Job↗

User's appraisal of yield model evaluation criteria

The five major potential USDA users of AgRISTAR crop yield forecast models rated the Yield Model Development (YMD) project Test and Evaluation Criteria by the importance placed on them. These users were agreed that the "TIMELINES" and "RELIABILITY" of the forecast yields would be of major importance in determining if a proposed yield model was worthy of adoption. Although there was considerable difference of opinion as to the relative importance of the other criteria, "COST", "OBJECTIVITY", "ADEQUACY", AND "MEASURES OF ACCURACY" generally were felt to be more important that "SIMPLICITY" and "CONSISTENCY WITH SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE". However, some of the comments which accompanied the ratings did indicate that several of the definitions and descriptions of the criteria were confusing.

Warren, F. B.↗