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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Climate Influences on Capacity Expansion Planning with Application to the Western U.S

Electric power system planners utilize a variety of planning tools to inform decisions concerning generation and transmission additions to the electric grid, the need for operational changes, and to evaluate potential stressors on the system. Numerous factors contribute to the planning process including projected fuel and technology costs, policy and load profiles. There is also a growing recognition of the interdependency of the electric grid with other natural and engineered systems. Here we explore how future climate change and hydropower operability might influence decisions related to electricity capacity expansion planning and operations. To do so we assemble a multi-model framework. Specifically, water resource modeling is used to simulate climate impacts on future water supply for thermoelectric and hydropower generation. Separately, temperature impacts on electricity load are evaluated. Together, these climate factors spatially constrain a capacity expansion model that projects generation and transmission additions to the grid. The projected new capacity-builds are then evaluated on their operations, reliability, and cost under average and extreme climate conditions using production cost modeling. This coupled framework is demonstrated on the electric grid in the Western U.S., supporting capacity expansion planning by WECC, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) regional entity responsible for reliability assurance of the Western Interconnection. This region was selected in part because the West is unique in that it has high potential for renewable penetrations and is experiencing large retirements/displacements of baseload resources, primarily coal, leading to possible operational challenges in terms of changing resource mix and the need for resource flexibility. Toward this challenge, planning scenarios encompass a range of alternative energy, climate and drought futures. In this context we explore answers to two strategic questions: 1) How does changing climate influence electricity expansion planning (generation and transmission) and future operations, including type and capacity of new builds, system reliability, cost and environmental impacts? 2) How does the representation of hydropower in the modeling framework influence the evaluation of bulk power system operations? Results indicate that climate has a measurable influence on recommendations concerning the capacity, type and location of new generation and transmission additions, with up to 17 GW additional capacity needed by 2038 to meet peak loads (~6.6% increase over capacity-builds based on historical climate). The extent of additional infrastructure needs is strongly influenced by future water availability for hydropower and the potential deployment of demand response technologies. Systems designed for future climate conditions were found to maintain high system reliability under a range of electricity and water availability scenarios (including significant drought), with minimal system curtailments. Additional capacity needs due to higher load tend to increase cumulative 20-year investment and operating costs by $\$$5-$\$$17 billion and generation costs increase by 9 to 19%. Finally, changing the representation of hydropower flexibility has a relatively small influence on capacity expansion in the Western Interconnection through 2038, but hydropower flexibility impacts generation costs to a similar extent as climate.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Agent-Based Coordination Scheme for PV Integration (ABC4PV)

Renewables and especially photovoltaics (PV) have benefitted significantly from a host of incentives and policies targeted toward enhanced integration and adoption of specific energy technologies. However, with the push to move forward into a subsidy-free market framework, behind-the-meter residential PV applications have generally struggled to retain their value (unlike utility scale and commercial projects) [1]. This project focused on developing control-theoretic solutions aimed at improving the integration and interaction of behind-the-meter residential PV with other distribution system assets (controllable and non-controllable) to enhance the integrated value of residential PV. To this end, a suite of decentralized control methodologies have been developed to enable effective coordination and control of behind-the-meter residential load customers’ PV, battery storage systems (BSS), controllable loads and other similar assets within a distribution feeder. This interaction aims at procuring energy savings and, thus, energy bill savings. The main source of savings is drawn from reducing the effect of demand charge pricing and is realized at the feeder level, assuming community level interaction and management among the aforementioned assets. Optimal control of the assets is implemented with a distributed optimization methodology, leveraging consensus-based algorithms. The results gathered from the optimal control simulations demonstrates that the savings can be duly achieved and the algorithm decision times (to dynamically control asset set points, for example) are fast. As for the overall efficiency of PV+BSS systems, to procure energy savings from curtailment of the demand charge pricing effects, the optimal control is set up so as to minimize the variance of the load for all customers, throughout a feeder and throughout time in a rolling horizon scheduling with model predictive control. The control takes into account inter-temporal electrochemical storage (battery) degradation costs: specifically, we have developed a long-term lifetime model for the BSS that weighs in the effect of the degradation factor in the dispatch formulations, thus, a considerable operating cost that affects energy decision making. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE – redefined for the purpose of quantifying asset integration effectiveness through the customers’ energy cost) is shown to be below the threshold set for the combined PV+BSS topology of $ 0.14/kWh for multiple cases of PV penetration all the way up to 50%, provided that a policy of shared ownership of and savings is in place. Further, the LCOE calculated for the case before the deployment PV+BSS systems is also achievable, i.e. the deployment of PV+BSS, if planned and scheduled optimally. will have no effect on customers’ energy costs. From the control methodology viewpoint, the developed consensus-based algorithms are shown to converge for a wide range of problem cases (spanning normal operating scenarios and contingencies), guaranteeing dispatch solutions under forecasting errors, communication break-downs and cyber-security attacks. The proposed control solutions are scalable and real-time implementable, with dispatch computations and device set-point updates converging in less than 2s in most practical instances of the above events.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Wonders of Physics -- Public Outreach (Final Technical Report)

The mission of The Wonders of Physics (TWoP) outreach program is to generate interest in physics among people of all ages and backgrounds. The objective is to generate interest in physics, increase appreciation for the significance of physics in our lives, and encourage children to consider careers in science and plasma physics. The primary means for achieving that objective is to make entertaining presentations to audiences that would not normally be motivated to attend a lecture on physics or plasmas, while at the same time introducing some of the fundamental concepts and applications. During this reporting period, the students Michael Hall, Megan Tabbutt and Connor Sullivan, Director of Communications Sarah Perdue, Director of Undergraduate Program Jim Reardon, and Senior Information Processing Consultant Paul Wilhite worked to make outreach programs a success and prepare for the future of The Wonders of Physics, which will continue. Because of the curtailment of public events due to Covid-19, there will not be an in person Annual Show or Physics Fair in 2021, but a video competition has already been announced and planning continues for The Wonders of Physics in 2022 and beyond. The annual shows and Physics Fair are scheduled for February 12-13 and February 19-20, 2022. These continue to be our premier outreach events, engaging diverse audiences in real hands-on science. Further shows and exploration stations are planned.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electrification Futures Study: Operational Analysis of U.S. Power Systems with Increased Electrification and Demand-Side Flexibility

This report provides a high-resolution U.S. national-scale power systems assessment of scenarios with widespread electrification using detailed grid simulations. We find that high electrification scenarios envisioned in the Electrification Futures Study can be operated at the hourly level to meet future increased levels of electrified demand and, under the most aggressive cases, with up to 66% of generation from wind and solar technologies. The analysis also examines the value of flexibility from demand by supporting system operability under high electrification and high renewable systems. Demand-side flexibility—especially flexibility from newly electrified loads—is found to enhance the operational efficiency by reducing VRE curtailment and increasing utilization of generators with lower operating costs. It can also enhance the ability of electrification to decarbonize the energy sector.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Methods for Capturing System Interactions of Combined Technologies: A Study of PV + Battery

The costs of solar photovoltaics (PV) have been dropping in recent years, leading to increasing installations of solar PV systems and growing interest in how the technology will impact the electric grid at higher penetrations. Additionally, as battery costs decline it becomes important to understand the benefits and limitations of battery storage for the grid as well as potential benefits of co-locating battery storage and PV, particularly within the realm of future system planning. However, it is non-trivial to capture these potential benefits within a linearized capacity expansion model (CEM). This paper presents methodological developments to more fully represent the value and limitations of coupled PV and battery systems (PV + Battery) in CEMs using the Resource Planning Model (RPM), which co-optimizes capacity investments, transmission investments, and reduced-order dispatch in the Western Interconnection of North America through 2045. We use the model to simulate the evolution of the generation and transmission system under two core scenarios - a baseline scenario and a high renewable penetration scenario - coupled with sensitivities assuming low and midline PV and battery cost projections. When incorporating PV + battery, we find that it is important for CEMs to capture the ability of the coupled technology to provide firm capacity and reduce expected curtailment, compared to independent systems. These interactions can have even more dramatic impacts at higher solar penetrations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evidence of Completion of Milestone 3: Experimental Testbed

Construction and deployment of the experimental testbed encountered scheduling delays, and completion was subsequently further delayed by curtailment of LANL operations due to the COVID–19 pandemic. Between March and October, LANL was in a state of “Limited Operations” such that only certain “mission–critical” work was performed with approximately 25% on–site staffing. In spite of this, much of the lab space preparation was executed and the five initial model house” units were constructed and installed during this period. Still, the pace of construction was impacted by difficulty in coordinating personnel and minimizing contact between workers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tank 48H Tetraphenylborate Mitigation: Simulant Studies using Sodium Permanganate

Tank 48H currently holds legacy material containing organic tetraphenylborate (TPB) compounds from the operation of the In-Tank Precipitation (ITP) process. TPB was added during the ITP process to precipitate the otherwise soluble cesium as insoluble cesium TPB (CsTPB), but excessive benzene generation from TPB degradation curtailed this treatment method. The contents of Tank 48H, which include approximately 26.000 kg of potassium TPB (KTPB) and trace CsTPB, are not compatible with the waste treatment facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS) since the organic content and the associated flammability issues pose a challenge to the salt processing and sludge processing facilities within the liquid waste system. An in-tank process to remove (or decompose) TPB safely would be of great value. Previous testing at Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) demonstrated the destruction of glycolate via chemical oxidation using sodium permanganate with simulated and radioactive waste. Scoping tests were performed to study the destruction of TPB to determine if the contents of Tank 48H would be amenable to the same type of destruction. Partial destruction of TPB was observed in Tank 48H simulants under mild conditions (e g., pH 11, room temperature) with no definitive indication of benzene generation. To build upon the success of the scoping tests, an additional study was requested to provide a better understanding of the underlying chemistry for Tank 48H content destruction using sodium permanganate. Three experiments were performed with Tank 48H simulants at 40 °C to determine the efficacy of using sodium permanganate for TPB destruction. Three starting pH values were selected: 1) pH 11 for comparison with the previous work at room temperature, 2) pH 10 as the minimum pH recommended by the Corrosion Control Program (CCP) for in-tank processing, and 3) pH 8 to determine the effectiveness of TPB destruction at near neutral pH. While below the allowable pH for the CCP, the experiment at pH 8 was performed to study the TPB-Permanganate reaction under more extreme conditions and further verify the potential for out-of-tank processing.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Co-Development of Oscillating Water Column (OWC) and Offshore Power Station

The project proposed an Oscillating Water Column (OWC) at a low power rating (1-5kW); to build a prototype and perform field testing within 1–3 years and achieving a commercial version of the OWC 3–5 years. We selected the OWC off-the-shelf components to secure the supply-chain sources and to warrant stable and minimum pricing. We want to curtail the capital cost by reducing the weight and volume of the overall system structure at the design level by designing a high-speed turbine generator and optimizing the airspeed amplification. We want to minimize the operational and maintenance (O&M) costs through simplified architecture, minimal parts, modular/plug-and-play, and easy access designs.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2021

Europe’s energy policy based on large-scale use of renewables most likely will require supplemental power supplies to balance their electrical power systems

Political decisions toward an increased role for renewable energy sources (wind & solar) in Europe will have an impact on the functioning of the electrical power systems that will have to be offset due to the inherent intermittent nature of renewable sources. The offset can be accomplished either through increasing non-renewable energy supply and production from other means, including purchasing Russian piped natural gas and LNG, or decreasing demand by curtailing power consumption. Europe likely will also need increased energy supplies to cover reduced gas production in the North Sea and Netherlands. Also, expected disconnection of Baltic states from the BRELL (Belarus-Russia-EstoniaLatvia-Lithuania) grid will force these countries to acquire electricity from Europe, resulting in increased demands on the European power grid that will require additional capacity to offset.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

GT Flex: A Coordinated Multi-Building Pilot Study

Buildings are a significant and untapped resource for providing utility electric grid services. Recent studies have estimated that buildings could reduce the peak demand on the electric grid in the U.S. by almost 25% through effective combinations of energy efficiency (EE) measures and load flexibility strategies (Langevin et al. 2021). The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has established a goal to triple energy efficiency and demand flexibility in both residential and commercial sections by 2030 compared to 2020 levels (Satchwell et al. 2021). Such findings place buildings alongside electric vehicles, photovoltaics, electric batteries, and other distributed energy resources (DERs) as primary technologies needed for supporting high renewable energy generation grids. Coordinating and optimizing multiple buildings and other DERs is more beneficial and valuable when compared with individual buildings and DERs operating as siloed resources, uncoordinated with others (Olgyay et al. 2020). A pilot study at the Georgia Institute of Technology (GIT) was conducted to evaluate value propositions of a multi-building scale project seeking carbon reduction, energy efficiency and grid-interactive capabilities, by demonstrating the means by which stakeholders can determine the technical and financial merits of grid-interactivity and energy efficiency technologies coordinated across multiple assets. The study focused on analyzing technical feasibility of deploying thermal load flexibility strategies at the multi-building scale, coordinated to not exceed existing infrastructure constraints at the pilot site. Results show that campus can provide 3-3.5 MW of potential load shed over a 4-hour event window through coordinated dispatch of thermal cooling load flexibility without exceeding existing infrastructure capacities. Under future high renewable scenarios, this thermal flexibility resource is also valuable when coordinated to reduce curtailment of intermittent renewables. Economic analyses were performed to effectively communicate various value propositions of grid-interactive and efficient building (GEB) thermal flexibility strategies. Load flexibility presents a financial value proposition to the campus today. By conducting rationalized, coordinated dispatch in response to real time price (RTP) fluctuations, the campus can benefit materially from daily price arbitrage. The RTP signal acts as an aggregating mechanism between the utility and customer to call on demand flexibility resources, with a large portion of the benefit deriving from a relatively small number of days. Realizing and maximizing this benefit with thermal load flexibility requires careful attention to the timing of pricing signals and parameterization of dispatch to overcome efficiency penalties. Grid value and signals are expected to evolve over time, and thermal load flexibility shows potential to adapt dispatch logic to support intermittent renewable generation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the Grid Impact of Oregon Offshore Wind

This analysis used high resolution offshore wind data and a detailed production cost model of the Western Interconnection to explore the value and operational impact of integrating offshore wind along Oregon's coastline. Leveraging local technical stakeholder expertise and input, we determined a set of scenarios to explore. These scenarios varied offshore wind penetrations and explored the differences of integrating offshore wind in the current grid and a potential future grid. This allowed us to determine how changes to the rest of the system and increasing penetrations of offshore wind affected our findings. We identified a number of key findings from the analysis, including that 2.6 GW of nameplate capacity offshore wind could be integrated into the Oregon power system with minimal curtailment due to transmission congestion or other factors. The range of system value provided by offshore wind ranges between $\$$65/MWh and $\$$85/MWh across the various scenarios considered. We also examined the influence offshore wind had on the trans-Cascade power flow, where we determined a strong correlation between offshore wind generation and reduction in flow across the Cascades. Finally, we also determined that offshore wind could serve between 84 - 93% of Coastal Oregon loads depending on the scenario.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impacts Analysis of Amendments to Mexico's Unit Commitment and Dispatch Rules

In Mexico, there are various amendments, approved and under discussion to significantly modify the order in which generation units are committed and dispatched. This report quantifies the potential impacts on Mexico's power system, utilizing a production cost model of the Mexican power system that analyzes the hourly optimal electricity dispatch of the Mexican electricity system for 1 year under four scenarios, a reference scenario, and three alternative scenarios. These scenarios are meant to evaluate the potential impacts of increasing participation of the state-owned power plants in generation mix, electricity production costs, emissions, and renewable curtailment.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Use of Operating Agreements and Energy Storage to Reduce Photovoltaic Interconnection Costs: Technical and Economic Analysis

This report presents an analytical methodology to identify alternative options to manage interconnection costs and streamline interconnection timelines for distribution system-connected photovoltaic (PV) systems not co-located with load. Specifically, the report details the methodology and results of an analysis that: 1. Identifies potential grid violations that would be induced by a PV system requesting interconnection to a distribution circuit; 2. Identifies multiple technically viable options for mitigating the potential violations, including infrastructure upgrades, downsizing the PV system size, curtailment of PV, and addition of battery energy storage; 3. Defines the required technical operating parameters of the system in order to mitigate all potential violations (the "Operating Envelope"); 4. Compares the economics of each option, from the PV developer's perspective. The analysis supports the ongoing evolution of interconnection standards for combined PV and energy storage systems by providing a methodology to define allowable maximum export limits during each hour. The methodology presented could be used by utilities as part of the interconnection study process, to inform negotiations with DER developers and the drafting of mutually acceptable interconnection agreements. The resulting technical operating parameters could be included as part of the interconnection service agreement (ISA) between the system owner and the utility company. The companion report to this analysis, Gill et al. (2022), details the envisioned framework for the implementation of the technical operating parameters.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Future Role of Hydropower in the Northeastern United States: May 2020-May 2022

This paper explores the future role of hydropower in the Northeastern US and beyond. The intent is to provide experience-based insights into how hydropower can best support the reliable and economic evolution of the New England power system and, more broadly, all US grids. Many of the challenges facing New England are driven by the potential integration of 10s of GWs of variable energy resources. Hydro can assist in remediating several issues, and the paper explores how Hydro might hit above its weight in a future low carbon New England system. Hydro can assist in handling periods of over generation, reduce the risk of curtailment of zero carbon resources, improve market efficiency, and provide valuable essential reliability services.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transmission Alternatives for California North Coast Offshore Wind, Volume 4: Cost-Benefit Analysis Report

The purpose of this report is to compare the costs and benefits of installing offshore wind power plants with capacities up to 500 megawatts (MW) in the Humboldt Wind Energy Area offshore California, focusing on identifying the costs related to transmission upgrades and possible alternatives such as energy storage. We identify several options that result in lower costs than upgrading transmission to provide full deliverability. Our estimates of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) assuming full deliverability range from $80/MWh for a 144-MW plant to $73/MWh for a 480-MW plant with a 2030 commercial operation date; however, the additional cost of transmission upgrades increases these values to between $86/MWh and $98/MWh. Based on curtailment and revenue estimates developed using a production cost model, the LCOEs for plant capacities of 144 MW and 168 MW with Energy Only deliverability are lower than the combined cost of energy and transmission upgrades for full deliverability. The addition of a 4-hour, 15-MW battery energy storage system increases revenue for both plant sizes, with the 144 MW + storage scenario producing the most revenue relative to LCOE.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Colloid-Facilitated Actinide Transport in a Cementitious-Impacted SRS Groundwater

The objective of this report is to provide a literature review relevant to the question of whether colloid facilitated transport of plutonium is enhanced in a cementitious groundwater system on the Savannah River Site (SRS). Contaminant transport is commonly described as taking place in a system with a mobile aqueous phase and an immobile solid phase. There has been an increasing awareness of a third phase, a mobile solid phase, also referred to as a mobile colloidal phase. Mobile colloids consist of organic and/or inorganic submicron-particles that move with groundwater flow. When radionuclides are associated with the mobile colloids, the net effect is that radionuclides can move faster through the subsurface system than would be predicted by transport models that do not include mobile colloids. It is important to distinguish between subsurface colloids and subsurface mobile colloids. The subsurface environment includes an enormous reservoir of colloids, but only a tiny fraction, if any, are mobile. Mobile colloid formation is commonly described as involving a three-step process: genesis, stabilization, and transport. It was concluded that there is a strong likelihood that submicron colloids of plutonium exist near the source term, (i.e., the genesis step is likely completed). While such particles have not been directly detected, it is highly likely that plutonium could either attach to submicron particles in the sediment or that submicron plutonium fragments exist at the source. However, the tendency for these plutonium colloids to move in the SRS subsurface is extremely low, especially in engineered cementitious environments where the ionic strength of the solution and the elevated concentrations of divalent cations greatly curtails colloid suspension stability (i.e., the stabilization step is likely not completed). Together these data strongly indicate that plutonium-bearing colloids would likely exist in the near field of a tank closure facility, but the colloids would be unlikely to be mobile, thereby providing a vector for enhanced transport. Under cementitious leachate impacted groundwater conditions, it is reasonable to assume plutonium transport occurs primarily as a two-phase system, a mobile aqueous phase and an immobile solid phase.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

H2@Scale Program Multi-Party Cooperative Research and Development Agreement: California Hydrogen Infrastructure Research Consortium Task (Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-18-00754)

Many stakeholders are working on hydrogen and fuel cell products, markets, requirements, mandates, and policies. California has been leading the way for hydrogen infrastructure and fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) deployment. This leadership has advanced a hydrogen network that is not duplicated anywhere in the United States and is unique in the world for its focus on providing a retail fueling experience. In addition, the advancements have identified many lessons learned for hydrogen infrastructure development, deployment, and operation. Other interested states and countries are using California's experience as a model case, making success in California paramount to enabling market acceleration and uptake in the United States. The technical research capability of the national laboratories can be used to assist California in decisions and evaluations, as well as to verify solutions to problems impacting the industry. Because these challenges cannot be addressed by one agency or one laboratory, a hydrogen research consortium has been organized to combine and collaborate. The collaboration aims to ensure that data are available to evaluate projects and inform decision makers, independently verify and validate component solutions, provide experimental results for future hydrogen infrastructure, increase the availability of technical experts for quick-need issues for California hydrogen infrastructure development, deployment, operation, and technology advances. The proposed tasks include data collection from operational stations, component failure fix verification (i.e. nozzle freeze lock), new fueling methods for medium and heavy duty applications, and ensuring hydrogen quality is maintained. U.S. leadership for hydrogen technologies is rooted in California, a location for implementing many H2@Scale pathways such as reducing curtailment and stranded resources, reducing petroleum use and emissions, and developing and creating jobs.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Analysis of PNM's Renewable Reserve Requirements to Meet New Mexico's Decarbonization Goals

Over the next three years, the Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) plans to increase utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity from today’s roughly 330MW to about 1600MW. This massive increase in variable generation—from about 15% to 75% of peak load—will require changes in how PNM operates their system. We characterize the 5 and 30-minute solar and wind forecast errors that the system is likely to experience in order to determine the level of reserves needed to counteract such events. Our focus in this study is on negative forecast error (in other words, shortfalls relative to forecast) – whereas excess variable generation can be curtailed if needed, a shortfall must be compensated for to avoid loss of load. Calculating forecast error requires the use of the same forecasting methods that PNM uses or a reasonable approximation thereof. For wind, we use a persistence forecast on actual 5-minute 2019 wind output data (scaled up to reflect the amount of wind capacity planned for 2025). For solar, we use a formula incorporating the clear sky index (CSI) for the forecast. As the solar on the grid now is a small fraction of what is planned for 2025, we generated 5-minute solar data using 2019 weather inputs. We find that to handle 99.9% of the 5-minute negative forecast errors, a maximum of 275MW of variable generation reserve during daylight hours, and a maximum of 75MW during non-daylight hours, should be sufficient. Note that this variable generation reserve is an additional reserve category that specifies reserves over and above what are currently carried for contingency reserve. This would require a significant increase in reserve relative to what PNM currently carries or can call upon from other utilities per reserve sharing agreements. This variable generation reserve specification may overestimate the actual level needed to deal with PNM’s planned variable generation in 2025. The forecasting methodologies used in this study likely underperform PNM’s forecasting – and better forecasting allows for less reserve. To obtain more precise estimates, it is necessary to consider load and use the same forecasting inputs and methods used by PNM.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗