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DOE OSTI2024

MSD CoP Webinar: Accounting for distributive justice in model-based decision support

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Model-based analyses play an ever-increasing role in informing policy and decision-making. However, many large-scale societal challenges unavoidably involve questions about the fair distribution of positive and negative consequences. How are the costs of the energy transition distributed over households and businesses? How are flood risks redistributed under different flood risk management plans? How are the impacts of climate change and climate mitigation distributed over different parts of the world?These kinds of questions play an important role when deliberating public policy, and the lack, in many cases, of clear answers becomes an obstacle to decision-making. At recent COPs, for example, wicked questions about loss and damages and the phase-out versus phase-down of coal became obstacles to global climate action, illustrating the misalignment of the direction of scientific research and decision-makers' information needs. In this talk, I'll explore advances that are being made that enable analysts to start providing grounded model-based answers to questions of distributive justice, as well as argue that analysts should embrace and explicate the normative nature of their work instead of hiding behind the purported neutrality of science. Presenters: Dr. Jan Kwakkel (Delft University of Technology) Moderator(s): Rebecca Saari (MSD CoP Working Group Co-Chair; Univ. of Waterloo), Matt Sparks (Univ. of Waterloo); Sarah Fletcher (MSD CoP Working Group Co-Chair; Stanford University), Juan Moreno-Cruz (Univ. of Waterloo), Patrick Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team Member, Moderator and Organizer) This webinar was held on: November 13, 2024 from 1 PM - 2:15 PM ET

Kwakkel, Jan H.↗

NASA NTRS1972

NASA program decisions using reliability analysis.

NASA made use of the analytical outputs of reliability people to make management decisions on the Apollo program. Such decisions affected the amount of the incentive fees, how much acceptance testing was necessary, how to optimize development testing, whether to approve engineering changes, and certification of flight readiness. Examples of such analysis are discussed and related to programmatic decisions.-

Steinberg, A.↗

NASA NTRS1973

A pilot level decision analysis of thermionic reactor development strategy for nuclear electric propulsion

The development policy for thermionic reactors to provide electric propulsion and power for space exploration was analyzed to develop a logical procedure for selecting development alternatives that reflect the technical feasibility, JPL/NASA project objectives, and the economic environment of the project. The partial evolution of a decision model from the underlying philosophy of decision analysis to a deterministic pilot phase is presented, and the general manner in which this decision model can be employed to examine propulsion development alternatives is illustrated.

Menke, M. M.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Decision feedback loop for tracking a polyphase modulated carrier

A multiple phase modulated carrier tracking loop for use in a frequency shift keying system is described in which carrier tracking efficiency is improved by making use of the decision signals made on the data phase transmitted in each T-second interval. The decision signal is used to produce a pair of decision-feedback quadrature signals for enhancing the loop's performance in developing a loop phase error signal.

Simon, M. K.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Sequential decision analysis for nonstationary stochastic processes

A formulation of the problem of making decisions concerning the state of nonstationary stochastic processes is given. An optimal decision rule, for the case in which the stochastic process is independent of the decisions made, is derived. It is shown that this rule is a generalization of the Bayesian likelihood ratio test; and an analog to Wald's sequential likelihood ratio test is given, in which the optimal thresholds may vary with time.

Schaefer, B.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Vertex potentials evoked during auditory signal detection - Relation to decision criteria

Vertex potentials were recorded from eight subjects performing in an auditory threshold detection task with rating scale responses. The amplitudes and latencies of both the N1 and the late positive (P3) components were found to vary systematically with the criterion level of the decision. These changes in the waveshape of the N1 component were comparable to those produced by varying the signal intensity in a passive condition, but the late positive component in the active task was not similarly related to the passively evoked P2 component. It was suggested that the N1 and P3 components represent distinctive aspects of the decision process, with N1 signifying the quantity of signal information received and P3 reflecting the certainty of the decision based upon that information.

Squires, K. C.↗

NASA NTRS1975

The decision tree approach to classification

A class of multistage decision tree classifiers is proposed and studied relative to the classification of multispectral remotely sensed data. The decision tree classifiers are shown to have the potential for improving both the classification accuracy and the computation efficiency. Dimensionality in pattern recognition is discussed and two theorems on the lower bound of logic computation for multiclass classification are derived. The automatic or optimization approach is emphasized. Experimental results on real data are reported, which clearly demonstrate the usefulness of decision tree classifiers.

Wu, C.↗

NASA NTRS1974

A decision and control multi-axis pilot model based on an urgency for action concept

An all digital multiple axis, multiple input, multiple output pilot model flies five different tasks in aircraft of different classes while encountering turbulence represented by the Dryden spectral model. Six degree of freedom linearized aircraft equations of motion are used together with a generalized stability augmentation system. The pilot model consists of two parts: (1) a decision maker, and (2) a control action implementer. This decision maker selects the critical variable and predicts the error at action implementation. The control action implementer decides the magnitude of control to be applied and applies it. This system has been successfully compared with hybrid/analog man in the loop simulations of the F-5, A-7, T-33, and 707 aircraft, thus validating the all digital simulation and the decision and control pilot model.

Pollard, J. J.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Stochastic model for fatigue crack size and cost effective design decisions

This paper describes a methodology for making cost effective fatigue design decisions. The methodology is based on a probabilistic model for the stochastic process of fatigue crack growth with time. The development of a particular model for the stochastic process is also discussed in the paper. The model is based on the assumption of continuous time and discrete space of crack lengths. Statistical decision theory and the developed probabilistic model are used to develop the procedure for making fatigue design decisions on the basis of minimum expected cost or risk function and reliability bounds. Selections of initial flaw size distribution, NDT, repair threshold crack lengths, and inspection intervals are discussed.

Hanagud, S.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Decision theory in structural reliability

Some fundamentals of reliability analysis as applicable to aerospace structures are reviewed, and the concept of a test option is introduced. A decision methodology, based on statistical decision theory, is developed for determining the most cost-effective design factor and method of testing for a given structural assembly. The method is applied to several Saturn V and Space Shuttle structural assemblies as examples. It is observed that the cost and weight features of the design have a significant effect on the optimum decision.

Thomas, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1976

A decision model for planetary missions

Many techniques developed for the solution of problems in economics and operations research are directly applicable to problems involving engineering trade-offs. This paper investigates the use of utility theory for decision making in planetary exploration space missions. A decision model is derived that accounts for the objectives of the mission - science - the cost of flying the mission and the risk of mission failure. A simulation methodology for obtaining the probability distribution of science value and costs as a function spacecraft and mission design is presented and an example application of the decision methodology is given for various potential alternatives in a comet Encke mission.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1978

A decision model applied to alcohol effects on driver signal light behavior

A decision model including perceptual noise or inconsistency is developed from expected value theory to explain driver stop and go decisions at signaled intersections. The model is applied to behavior in a car simulation and instrumented vehicle. Objective and subjective changes in driver decision making were measured with changes in blood alcohol concentration (BAC). Treatment levels averaged 0.00, 0.10 and 0.14 BAC for a total of 26 male subjects. Data were taken for drivers approaching signal lights at three timing configurations. The correlation between model predictions and behavior was highly significant. In contrast to previous research, analysis indicates that increased BAC results in increased perceptual inconsistency, which is the primary cause of increased risk taking at low probability of success signal lights.

Schwartz, S. H.↗

NASA NTRS1977

A queueing model of pilot decision making in a multi-task flight management situation

Allocation of decision making responsibility between pilot and computer is considered and a flight management task, designed for the study of pilot-computer interaction, is discussed. A queueing theory model of pilot decision making in this multi-task, control and monitoring situation is presented. An experimental investigation of pilot decision making and the resulting model parameters are discussed.

Walden, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Monitoring and decision making by people in man machine systems

The analysis of human monitoring and decision making behavior as well as its modeling are described. Classic and optimal control theoretical, monitoring models are surveyed. The relationship between attention allocation and eye movements is discussed. As an example of applications, the evaluation of predictor displays by means of the optimal control model is explained. Fault detection involving continuous signals and decision making behavior of a human operator engaged in fault diagnosis during different operation and maintenance situations are illustrated. Computer aided decision making is considered as a queueing problem. It is shown to what extent computer aids can be based on the state of human activity as measured by psychophysiological quantities. Finally, management information systems for different application areas are mentioned. The possibilities of mathematical modeling of human behavior in complex man machine systems are also critically assessed.

Johannsen, G.↗

NASA NTRS1981

A model of the human observer and decision maker

The decision process is described in terms of classical sequential decision theory by considering the hypothesis that an abnormal condition has occurred by means of a generalized likelihood ratio test. For this, a sufficient statistic is provided by the innovation sequence which is the result of the perception an information processing submodel of the human observer. On the basis of only two model parameters, the model predicts the decision speed/accuracy trade-off and various attentional characteristics. A preliminary test of the model for single variable failure detection tasks resulted in a very good fit of the experimental data. In a formal validation program, a variety of multivariable failure detection tasks was investigated and the predictive capability of the model was demonstrated.

Wewerinke, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Optimum equipment maintenance/replacement policy. Part 2: Markov decision approach

Dynamic programming was utilized as an alternative optimization technique to determine an optimal policy over a given time period. According to a joint effect of the probabilistic transition of states and the sequence of decision making, the optimal policy is sought such that a set of decisions optimizes the long-run expected average cost (or profit) per unit time. Provision of an alternative measure for the expected long-run total discounted costs is also considered. A computer program based on the concept of the Markov Decision Process was developed and tested. The program code listing, the statement of a sample problem, and the computed results are presented.

Charng, T.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Supervision of dynamic systems: Monitoring, decision-making and control

Effects of task variables on the performance of the human supervisor by means of modelling techniques are discussed. The task variables considered are: The dynamics of the system, the task to be performed, the environmental disturbances and the observation noise. A relationship between task variables and parameters of a supervisory model is assumed. The model consists of three parts: (1) The observer part is thought to be a full order optimal observer, (2) the decision-making part is stated as a set of decision rules, and (3) the controller part is given by a control law. The observer part generates, on the basis of the system output and the control actions, an estimate of the state of the system and its associated variance. The outputs of the observer part are then used by the decision-making part to determine the instants in time of the observation actions on the one hand and the controls actions on the other. The controller part makes use of the estimated state to derive the amplitude(s) of the control action(s).

White, T. N.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Sequential decision rules for failure detection

The formulation of the decision making of a failure detection process as a Bayes sequential decision problem (BSDP) provides a simple conceptualization of the decision rule design problem. As the optimal Bayes rule is not computable, a methodology that is based on the Baysian approach and aimed at a reduced computational requirement is developed for designing suboptimal rules. A numerical algorithm is constructed to facilitate the design and performance evaluation of these suboptimal rules. The result of applying this design methodology to an example shows that this approach is a useful one.

Chow, E. Y.↗