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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Long term energy and emission implications of a global shift to electricity-based public rail transportation system

With high reliance on light-duty vehicles in the present, the future of global transportation system is also geared towards private modes, which has significant energy and emission implications. Public transportation has been argued as an alternative strategy for meeting the rising transportation demands of the growing world, especially the poor, in a sustainable and energy efficient way. The present study analyzes an important yet under-researched question – what are the long-term energy and emission implications of an electric rail based passenger transportation system for meeting both long and short distance passenter transportation needs? We analyze a suite of electric rail share scenarios with and without climate policy. In the reference scenario, the transportation system will evolve towards dominance of fossil based light-duty vehicles. We find that an electric rail policy is more successful than an economy wide climate policy in reducing transport sector energy demand and emissions. Economy wide emissions however can only be reduced through a broader climate policy, the cost of which can be reduced by hundreds of billions of dollars across the century when implemented in combination with the transport sector focused electric rail policy. Moreover, higher share of electric rail enhances energy security for oil importing nations and reduces vehicular congestion and road infrastructure requirement as well.

Chaturvedi, Vaibhav↗
DOE OSTI2015

U.S. oil dependence 2014: Is energy independence in sight?

The importance of reducing U.S. oil dependence may have changed in light of developments in the world oil market over the past two decades. Since 2005, increased domestic production and decreased oil use have cut U.S. import dependence in half. The direct costs of oil dependence to the U.S. economy are estimated under four U.S. Energy Information Administration Scenarios to 2040. The key premises of the analysis are that the primary oil market failure is the use of market power by OPEC and that U.S. economic vulnerability is a result of the quantity of oil consumed, the lack of readily available, economical substitutes and the quantity of oil imported. Monte Carlo simulations of future oil market conditions indicate that the costs of U.S. oil dependence are likely to increase in constant dollars but decrease relative to U.S. gross domestic product unless oil resources are larger than estimated by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In conclusion, reducing oil dependence therefore remains a valuable goal for U.S. energy policy and an important co-benefit of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluating project level investment trends for the U.S. ESCO industry: 1990–2017

Energy efficiency is widely recognized as a cost-effective strategy to meet energy demand. The U.S. energy service company (ESCO) industry generates significant energy savings and other benefits through installing and maintaining energy efficiency, renewable and other types of projects. In this study, we evaluate factors that may explain trends in the economic performance of U.S. ESCO projects by analyzing project level data for ~7000 U.S. ESCO industry projects. We find that real project investment levels normalized for floor area have increased over time in ESCO projects across market segments. However, the dollar value of energy savings and other reported benefits have not kept pace with increases in real project investment levels over time. The latter have increased 100%–500% in various market segments from 1990 to 2017. We conduct an econometric analysis to decompose the drivers of these underlying trends. Number of measures and a changing mix of conservation measures are the primary factors that correlate with the long-term increase in project investment levels. However, our analysis is only able to account for less than 50% of the increase in real investment levels. Finally, we discuss additional factors, and conclude discussing policy implications and outlining long-term research needs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Two trillion gallons: Fuel savings from fuel economy improvements to US light-duty vehicles, 1975–2018

Since 1975, the fuel economy of new light-duty vehicles sold in the U.S. has almost doubled. Fuel economy improvements on laboratory tests gradually became real improvements on the road as newer, more efficient vehicles replaced older less efficient ones. Fleet-wide fuel economy gains produced large fuel savings. In this paper, we show that fuel economy gains measured on laboratory test cycles, adjusted for on-road conditions and weighted by the distribution of vehicles by age and their relative use, closely match estimates by the Federal Highway Administration based primarily on traffic counts and motor fuel tax records. Furthermore, adjusting for the rebound effect of fuel economy on vehicle miles traveled, we estimate the fuel savings, CO 2 emissions reductions and dollars saved on fuel due to fuel economy improvements over the past 43 years. Through the end of 2018, estimated cumulative fuel savings amount to approximately 2 trillion gallons of gasoline. We estimate that roughly one-fifth of the savings can be attributed to gasoline price increases over the period and four-fifths to fuel economy and greenhouse gas (ghg) standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing fluvial flood mitigation strategies: A multi-objective approach for cost-effective and socially-aware infrastructure feasibility analysis

Effective levee planning must balance capital cost, risk reduction, and community priorities. These objectives are rarely optimized together. This study presents a feasibility phase, simulationin-the-loop framework that couples terrain-based flood modeling with a socially aware multiobjective optimizer. Flood risk is measured as Expected Annual Exposed Population (EAEP), obtained by integrating exposure over Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) nodes, mirroring the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Flood Damage Reduction Analysis (HEC-FDA) expected-annual formulation but with people rather than dollars. Exposure per scenario is computed by overlaying binary inundation masks with a population surface at the tract level. Distributional fairness is encoded through a Group Benefit Share (GBS) constraint that requires high-SVI tracts to receive at least a baseline share of annualized benefits. Capital cost is represented by a height-dependent unit-cost model suitable for screening. This study addresses the two-objective problem, minimize cost and expected annual exposure subject to the GBS constraint, using Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) and leveraging Pareto front for feasibility phase decision making. Implemented with terrain-based flood modeling, GeoFlood, for rapid scenario evaluation, the framework is demonstrated in Southeast Texas. The results reveal clear trade-offs among cost, risk, and social benefits and identify non-dominated levee height configurations that satisfy the benefit-share floor. The contributions are a scalable decision support method that operationalizes expected annual population-based risk, embeds enforceable benefit-sharing guarantees, and uses lightweight simulation to explore large design spaces before higher fidelity design stages.

Flood mitigation↗
DOE OSTI2013

Sensitivity of injection costs to input petrophysical parameters in numerical geologic carbon sequestration models

Numerical simulations are widely used in feasibility studies for geologic carbon sequestration. Accurate estimates of petrophysical parameters are needed as inputs for these simulations. However, relatively few experimental values are available for CO2-brine systems. Hence, a sensitivity analysis was performed using the STOMP numerical code for supercritical CO2 injected into a model confined deep saline aquifer. The intrinsic permeability, porosity, pore compressibility, and capillary pressure-saturation/relative permeability parameters (residual liquid saturation, residual gas saturation, and van Genuchten alpha and m values) were varied independently. Their influence on CO2 injection rates and costs were determined and the parameters were ranked based on normalized coefficients of variation. The simulations resulted in differences of up to tens of millions of dollars over the life of the project (i.e., the time taken to inject 10.8 million metric tons of CO2). The two most influential parameters were the intrinsic permeability and the van Genuchten m value. Two other parameters, the residual gas saturation and the residual liquid saturation, ranked above the porosity. These results highlight the need for accurate estimates of capillary pressure-saturation/relative permeability parameters for geologic carbon sequestration simulations in addition to measurements of porosity and intrinsic permeability.

Cost estimate↗
DOE OSTI2021

A comprehensive techno-eco-assessment of CO 2 enhanced oil recovery projects using a machine-learning assisted workflow

Carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR) projects not only extract residual oil but also sequestrate CO 2 in the depleted reservoirs. Here, this study develops a machine-learning-based workflow to co-optimize the hydrocarbon recovery, CO 2 sequestration volume and project net present value (NPV) simultaneously. Considering the trade-off relationships among the objective functions, support vector regression with Gaussian kernel (Gaussian- SVR) proxies are coupled with multi-objective particle swarm optimization (PSO) protocol and generate Pareto optimal solutions. Taking advantage of the high computational efficacy of the proxy model, economic uncertainties introduced by tax credits, capital costs and oil price are investigated by this study. The results indicate that the tax incentive policy (Section 45Q) plays a vital role in enhancing the economic returns of CO 2 -EOR projects, especially under the depression of crude oil market. The proposed workflow has been successfully implemented to optimize a water alternative CO 2 (CO 2 -WAG) injection project in a depleted oil sand in the US. The optimization results yield an incremental oil production of 15.8 MM STB and 1.37 MM metric tons of CO 2 storage in a 20-year development strategy, with the highest project NPV to be 205.6 MM US dollars.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cost analysis of hydrogen production by high-temperature solid oxide electrolysis

In this study, we estimate construction and operation costs of gigawatt-scale solid oxide electrolysis (SOE) facilities for producing high purity hydrogen gas from water. Manufacturing and assembly costs for two types of SOE cell stacks are estimated using a detailed design for manufacture and assembly (DFMA®) analysis. Modular balance of plant (BOP) process equipment is designed and sized with Aspen®, and cost estimated using equipment vendor quotes. Factory and on-site assembly and installation costs for SOEC stack and BOP equipment integration into modular SOE process units are calculated using a simplified DFMA® method. Total stack costs on a stack input power (SIP) basis reduce to <$100/kW e DC SIP for >500 MW e DC SIP /year production rates with electrode cermet, interconnects, and high-temperature heat treatments dominating the total cost. Integration of stacks with larger BOP equipment operating at higher pressures offers ~36% cost reduction in total facility capital cost due to an economies of physical scale effect since BOP equipment comprises >50% of facility costs. Optimized H 2 prices decrease from ~$\$$4/kgH 2 to ~$\$$2/kgH 2 for 1 GWe DCSIP facilities using $\$$0.025/kWh electricity price. All costs are reported in 2021 US dollars.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cost analysis of alternative large-scale high-temperature solid oxide electrolysis hydrogen production facilities

We extend our past cost analysis of gigawatt-scale solid oxide electrolysis (SOE) facilities that produce high purity hydrogen gas from water by estimating construction and operating costs for three new alternative design cases: (1) offsite feed steam generation; (2) near-atmospheric pressure (NAP) stack; and (3) onsite electric boiler feed steam generation. Pressure effects on hydrogen electrode-(cathode-)supported SOE cell (SOEC) stack performance are estimated for the same assumed cell and stack construction and used to determine facility-wide stack capital costs for achieving a fixed H2 production at different pressures. Modular balance of plant (BOP) process equipment capital costs are estimated for each new alternative design case using our past equipment sizing, design, and cost data and scaling relationships. Furthermore, we update BOP equipment sizing and design for the NAP case using Aspen®. Vendor quotes for electric boilers are used to estimate costs for the electric boiler design case. Factory and onsite assembly and installation costs for SOEC stacks and BOP equipment are calculated using our past simplified first-principles approach. First-of-a-kind (FOAK) and N th -of-a-kind (NOAK) production maturity cost estimates are included for all results. The case with NAP stacks offers the lowest facility total capital cost (TCC, ~23% lower than base) while use of small electric boilers requires the highest TCC (~3% higher than base). H 2 production prices decrease from the base of ~$\$2.17$ /kgH 2 to ~$\$1.92$/kgH 2 for 1 GW e DC SIP facilities utilizing NAP stacks supplied by offsites steam situated in large modules and blocks for $\$0.030$/kWh e and $0.009/kWh t prices for electricity and thermal energy, respectively. We report all costs in 2021 US dollars.

Balance of plant (BOP) process equipment↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ultra-high efficiency hydrogen production using a large-scale solid oxide electrolysis cell system

Efficient and cost-effective production of clean hydrogen is key to decarbonizing the production of hard-to-abate industries, such as chemicals, fuels, steel, cement and many other commodities that form the basis of modern societies. High-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) has recently become commercially available and offers opportunities for producing hydrogen at higher efficiency and lower cost than competing low temperature technologies. In this work, we report world record setting hydrogen production efficiency from large-scale prototype HTSE systems based on solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) technology. Independent tests performed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) employed a Bloom Energy 100 kW SOEC system to achieve a hydrogen production direct current specific electric energy consumption as low as 36.7 kWh per kilogram of hydrogen. Remarkably, similar high efficiencies in the range of 36–39 kW/kg-H2 were obtained over a wide range of hydrogen production rates and even during dynamic ramping as the hydrogen production and electric power consumption of the system were varied between 20 % and 100 % of nominal conditions. Furthermore, these test results validate previous projections that commercial SOEC systems can produce clean hydrogen at efficiencies approaching 100 % for less than 2 U S. dollars per kilogram when located near sources of inexpensive, low-grade heat and clean electricity.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2014

Economic Analyses in Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck: A Review of the Literature From a Clinical Perspective

The purpose of this review was to describe cost-effectiveness and cost analysis studies across treatment modalities for squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN), while placing their results in context of the current clinical practice. We performed a literature search in PubMed for English-language studies addressing economic analyses of treatment modalities for SCCHN published from January 2000 to March 2013. We also performed an additional search for related studies published by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence in the United Kingdom. Identified articles were classified into 3 clinical approaches (organ preservation, radiation therapy modalities, and chemotherapy regimens) and into 2 types of economic studies (cost analysis and cost-effectiveness/cost-utility studies). All cost estimates were normalized to US dollars, year 2013 values. Our search yielded 23 articles: 13 related to organ preservation approaches, 5 to radiation therapy modalities, and 5 to chemotherapy regimens. In general, studies analyzed different questions and modalities, making it difficult to reach a conclusion. Even when restricted to comparisons of modalities within the same clinical approach, studies often yielded conflicting findings. The heterogeneity across economic studies of SCCHN should be carefully understood in light of the modeling assumptions and limitations of each study and placed in context with relevant settings of clinical practices and study perspectives. Furthermore, the scarcity of comparative effectiveness and quality-of-life data poses unique challenges for conducting economic analyses for a resource-intensive disease, such as SCCHN, that requires a multimodal care. Future research is needed to better understand how to compare the costs and cost-effectiveness of different modalities for SCCHN.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Medical Malpractice Claims in Radiation Oncology: A Population-Based Study 1985-2012

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine trends in radiation oncology malpractice claims and expenses during the last 28 years and to compare radiation oncology malpractice claims to those of other specialties. Methods and Materials: We performed a retrospective analysis of closed malpractice claims filed from 1985 to 2012, collected by a nationwide medical liability insurance trade association. We analyzed characteristics and trends among closed claims, indemnity payments (payments to plaintiff), and litigation expenses. We also compared radiation oncology malpractice claims to those of 21 other medical specialties. Time series dollar amounts were adjusted for inflation (2012 was the index year). Results: There were 1517 closed claims involving radiation oncology, of which 342 (22.5%) were paid. Average and median indemnity payments were $276,792 and $122,500, respectively, ranking fifth and eighth, respectively, among the 22 specialty groups. Linear regression modeling of time trends showed decreasing total numbers of claims (β = −1.96 annually, P=.003), increasing average litigation expenses paid (β = +$1472 annually, P≤.001), and no significant changes in average indemnity payments (β = −$681, P=.89). Conclusions: Medical professional liability claims filed against radiation oncologists are not common and have declined in recent years. However, indemnity payments in radiation oncology are large relative to those of many other specialties. In recent years, the average indemnity payment has been stable, whereas litigation expenses have increased.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Trends in Local Therapy Utilization and Cost for Early-Stage Breast Cancer in Older Women: Implications for Payment and Policy Reform

Purpose: Older women with early-stage disease constitute the most rapidly growing breast cancer demographic, yet it is not known which local therapy strategies are most favored by this population in the current era. Understanding utilization trends and cost of local therapy is important for informing the design of bundled payment models as payers migrate away from fee-for-service models. We therefore used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Medicare database to determine patterns of care and costs for local therapy among older women with breast cancer. Methods and Materials: Treatment strategy and covariables were determined in 55,327 women age ≥66 with Tis-T2N0-1M0 breast cancer who underwent local therapy between 2000 and 2008. Trends in local therapy were characterized using Joinpoint. Polychotomous logistic regression determined predictors of local therapy. The median aggregate cost over the first 24 months after diagnosis was determined from Medicare claims through 2010 and reported in 2014 dollars. Results: The median age was 75. Local therapy distribution was as follows: 27,896 (50.3%) lumpectomy with external beam radiation, 18,356 (33.1%) mastectomy alone, 6159 (11.1%) lumpectomy alone, 1488 (2.7%) mastectomy with reconstruction, and 1455 (2.6%) lumpectomy with brachytherapy. Mastectomy alone declined from 39.0% in 2000 to 28.2% in 2008, and the use of breast conserving local therapies rose from 58.7% to 68.2%. Mastectomy with reconstruction was more common among the youngest, healthiest patients, whereas mastectomy alone was more common among patients living in rural low-income regions. By 2008, the costs were $36,749 for lumpectomy with brachytherapy, $35,030 for mastectomy with reconstruction, $31,388 for lumpectomy with external beam radiation, $21,993 for mastectomy alone, and $19,287 for lumpectomy alone. Conclusions: The use of mastectomy alone in older women declined in favor of breast conserving strategies between 2000 and 2008. Using these cost estimates, price points for local therapy bundles can be constructed to incentivize the treatment strategies that confer the highest value.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2016

A Roadmap and Cost Implications of Establishing Comprehensive Cancer Care Using a Teleradiotherapy Network in a Group of Sub-Saharan African Countries With No Access to Radiation Therapy

Purpose: To propose a roadmap and explore the cost implications of establishing a teleradiotherapy network to provide comprehensive cancer care and capacity building in countries without access to radiation therapy. Methods and Materials: Ten low-income sub-Saharan countries with no current radiation therapy facilities were evaluated. A basic/secondary radiation therapy center (SRTC) with 2 teletherapy, 1 brachytherapy, 1 simulator, and a treatment planning facility was envisaged at a cost of 5 million US dollars (USD 5M). This could be networked with 1 to 4 primary radiation therapy centers (PRTC) with 1 teletherapy unit, each costing USD 2M. The numbers of PRTCs and SRTCs for each country were computed on the basis of cancer incidence, assuming that a PRTC and SRTC could respectively treat 450 and 900 patients annually. Results: An estimated 71,215 patients in these countries will need radiation therapy in 2020. Stepwise establishment of a network with 99 PRTCs and 28 SRTCs would result in 155 teletherapy units and 96% access to radiation therapy. A total of 310 radiation oncologists, 155 medical physicists, and 465 radiation therapy technologists would be needed. Capacity building could be undertaken through telementoring by networking to various international institutions and professional societies. Total infrastructure costs would be approximately USD 860.88M, only 0.94% of the average annual gross domestic product of these 10 countries. A total of 1.04 million patients could receive radiation therapy during the 15-year lifespan of a teletherapy unit for an investment of USD 826.69 per patient. For the entire population of 218.32 million, this equates to USD 4.11 per inhabitant. Conclusion: A teleradiotherapy network could be a cost-contained innovative health care strategy to provide effective comprehensive cancer care through resource sharing and capacity building. The network could also be expanded to include other allied specialties. The proposal calls for active coordination between all national and international organizations backed up by strong geopolitical commitment and action from all stakeholders.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Massively parallel Monte Carlo for many-particle simulations on GPUs

Current trends in parallel processors call for the design of efficient massively parallel algorithms for scientific computing. Parallel algorithms for Monte Carlo simulations of thermodynamic ensembles of particles have received little attention because of the inherent serial nature of the statistical sampling. In this paper, we present a massively parallel method that obeys detailed balance and implement it for a system of hard disks on the GPU. We reproduce results of serial high-precision Monte Carlo runs to verify the method. This is a good test case because the hard disk equation of state over the range where the liquid transforms into the solid is particularly sensitive to small deviations away from the balance conditions. On a Tesla K20, our GPU implementation executes over one billion trial moves per second, which is 148 times faster than on a single Intel Xeon E5540 CPU core, enables 27 times better performance per dollar, and cuts energy usage by a factor of 13. With this improved performance we are able to calculate the equation of state for systems of up to one million hard disks. These large system sizes are required in order to probe the nature of the melting transition, which has been debated for the last forty years. In this paper we present the details of our computational method, and discuss the thermodynamics of hard disks separately in a companion paper.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗