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At least 217 records · Page 12

Estimating Model Error Using Observation Residuals

This presentation discusses an approach to estimate model error using observation residuals. Based on the sequential fixed-lag smoother; we introduce a diagnostic procedure to allow estimating model error over a dense observing system. Optimality considerations are examined in light of the sequential results. The procedure is re-interpreted in the language of variational assimilation, such as 4d-Var. Illustrations of the approach are given by studying both identical-twin and fraternal-twin experimental settings for a system governed by Lorenz-type dynamics. Preliminary results by looking at observation residual statistics for the ECMWF data assimilation system are also shown. The presentation will be part of a series of discussions on issues related to four-dimensional data assimilation under weak-constraint and methodologies to estimate model error.

Todling, Ricardo↗

Neptune Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Neptune-GRAM): User Guide

This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the Neptune Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Neptune-GRAM) and its updated features. Neptune-GRAM is an engineering-oriented atmospheric model that estimates mean values and statistical variations of atmospheric properties for Neptune. This TM summarizes the atmospheric data model in Neptune-GRAM and provides a guide for the user to obtain, set up, and run the code in various configurations. Additional details regarding the Neptune-GRAM input and output files and how to interpret Neptune-GRAM results are also provided.

H L Justh↗

Uranus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Uranus-GRAM): User Guide

This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the Uranus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Uranus-GRAM) and the updated features of the GRAMs. Uranus-GRAM is an engineering-oriented atmospheric model that estimates mean values and statistical variations of atmospheric properties for Uranus. This TM summarizes the atmospheric data model in Uranus-GRAM and provides a guide for the user to obtain, set up, and run the code in various configurations. Additional details regarding the Uranus-GRAM input and output files and how to interpret Uranus-GRAM results are also provided.

Uranus Global Reference Atmospheric Model↗

Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Earth-GRAM): User Guide

This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Earth-GRAM) and the updated features of the GRAMs. Earth-GRAM is an engineering-oriented atmospheric model that estimates mean values and statistical variations of atmospheric properties for Earth. This TM summarizes the atmospheric data model in Earth-GRAM and provides a guide for the user to obtain, set up, and run the code in various configurations. Additional details regarding the Earth-GRAM input and output files and how to interpret Earth-GRAM results are also provided.

Atmospheric Models↗

Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Venus-GRAM): User Guide

This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Venus-GRAM) and the updated features of the GRAMs. Venus-GRAM is an engineering-oriented atmospheric model that estimates mean values and statistical variations of atmospheric properties for Venus. This TM summarizes the atmospheric data model in Venus-GRAM and provides a guide for the user to obtain, set up, and run the code in various configurations. Additional details regarding the Venus-GRAM input and output files and how to interpret Venus-GRAM results are also provided.

atmospheric models↗

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM): User Guide

This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) and the updated features of the GRAMs. Mars-GRAM is an engineering-oriented atmospheric model that estimates mean values and statistical variations of atmospheric properties for Mars. This TM summarizes the atmospheric data model in Mars-GRAM and provides a guide for the user to obtain, set up, and run the code in various configurations. Additional details regarding the Mars-GRAM input and output files and how to interpret Mars-GRAM results are also provided.

atmospheric models↗

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) 2024: User Guide

This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) 2024 and its updated features. Mars-GRAM is an engineering-oriented atmospheric model that estimates mean values and statistical variations of atmospheric properties for Mars. This TM summarizes the atmospheric data model in Mars-GRAM and provides a guide for the user to obtain, set up, and run the code in various configurations. Additional details regarding the Mars-GRAM input and output files and how to interpret Mars-GRAM results are also provided.

atmospheric density↗

The interpretation of simultaneous soft X-ray spectroscopic and imaging observations of an active region

Simultaneous soft X-ray spectroscopic and broad-band imaging observations of an active region have been analyzed together to determine the parameters which describe the coronal plasma. From the spectroscopic data, models of temperature-emission measure-elemental abundance have been constructed which provide acceptable statistical fits. By folding these possible models through the imaging analysis, models which are not self-consistent can be rejected. In this way, only the oxygen, neon, and iron abundances of Pottasch (1967), combined with either an isothermal or exponential temperature-emission-measure model, are consistent with both sets of data. Contour maps of electron temperature and density for the active region have been constructed from the imaging data. The implications of the analysis for the determination of coronal abundances and for future satellite experiments are discussed.

Davis, J. M.↗

Tropical cyclone track and genesis forecasting using satellite microwave sounder data

Although many dynamical and statistical prediction schemes are available to forecasters, tropical cyclone track errors are still large. One primary difficulty is that tropical cyclones exist over the data-sparse tropical oceans. Satellite sounders, however, routinely provide numerous data over these areas. Mean layer temperatures from the Scanning Microwave Spectrometer on board the Nimbus 6 satellite are decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions, and the expansion coefficients are related to deviations from the persistence forecast location, to speed change, to direction change and to intensity change. The significance of the regression equations is tested by a null hypothesis of zero correlation coefficient. It appears that significant information about tropical cyclone motion exists in the satellite-estimated mean layer temperatures, especially at upper levels. A physical interpretation of the statistical results is offered, and a one-storm-out independent test is used to test the stability of the equations. Finally, some further work is suggested.

Kidder, S. Q.↗

Empirical convection models for northward IMF

It is clear that polar cap convection during times of northward Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) is more structured and of lower mean speed than at times of southward IMF. This, coupled with the fact that the polar cap is smaller, means that empirical models are more difficult to construct with certainty. It is also clear that sunward flow deep in the polar cap is often observed, but its connection with the rest of the flow pattern is controversial. At present, empirical models are of three types: 'statistical' models wherein data from different days but with similar IMF conditions are averaged together; 'pattern recognition' models, which are built up by examining individually hundreds of passes to derive a 'typical' pattern which embodies features frequently observed; and 'assimilative' models, which use data of different types and from as many locations as possible, but all taken at the same time, in order to derive a snapshot (or series of snapshots) of the entire pattern. Each type of model has its own difficulties. Statistical models, by their very nature, smooth out flow features (e.g. the convection reversal, and the locus of sunward flow deep in the polar cap) which are not found at precisely the same invariant latitudes and magnetic local times on different days. Pattern recognition models are better at reproducing small-scale features, but the large-scale pattern can be a matter of interpretation. Assimilative models (such as AMIE) hold out the best hope for creating instantaneous, global convection patterns; however, the analysis technique tends to be most irregular (and least reliable) in the regions which are not well covered by in situ data. It appears that, at least at times, a four cell model with sunward flow at the highest and lowest latitudes, and antisunward flow in between, is consistent with the observations. At other times, the observations may be consistent with a two-cell convection pattern, but which includes significant meanders within the polar cap.

Moses, Julie J.↗

Remote sensing techniques for mapping range sites and estimating range yield

Image interpretation procedures for determining range yield and for extrapolating range information were investigated for an area of the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation in southwestern South Dakota. Soil and vegetative data collected in the field utilizing a grid sampling design and digital film data from color infrared film and black and white films were analyzed statistically using correlation and regression techniques. The pattern recognition techniques used were K-class, mode seeking, and thresholding. The herbage yield equation derived for the detailed test site was used to predict yield for an adjacent similar field. The herbage yield estimate for the adjacent field was 1744 lbs. of dry matter per acre and was favorably compared to the mean yield of 1830 lbs. of dry matter per acre based upon ground observations. Also an inverse relationship was observed between vegetative cover and the ratio of MSS 5 to MSS 7 of ERTS-1 imagery.

Benson, L. A.↗

Directional-cosine and related pre-processing techniques - Possibilities and problems in earth-resources surveys

The possibilities of using various pre-processing techniques (directional-cosine, ratios and ratio/sum) have been investigated in relation to an urban land-use problem in Marion County, Indiana (USA) and for geologic applications in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado. For Marion County, it proved possible to classify directional-cosine data from September 1972 into different land uses by applying statistics developed with data from a May 1973 ERTS frame, thereby demonstrating the possibilities of using this type of data for signature-extension purposes. In the Silverton (Colorado) area pre-processed data proved superior to original data when extracting useful information in mountainous areas without corresponding ground observations. This approach allowed meaningful classification and interpretation of the data. The main problems encountered as a result of atmospheric effects, mixing of different surface materials, and the performance characteristics of ERTS are elucidated.

Quiel, F.↗

Compression of Solar Spectroscopic Observations: a Case Study of MgII k Spectral Line Profiles Observed by NASA’s IRIS Satellite

In this study we extract the deep features and investigate the compression of the MgII k spectral line profiles observed in quiet Sun regions by NASA’s IRIS satellite. The data set of line profiles used for the analysis was obtained on April 20th, 2020, at the center of the solar disc, and contains almost 300,000 individual MgII k line profiles after data cleaning. The data are separated into train and test subsets. The train subset was used to train the autoencoder of the varying embedding layer size. The early stopping criterion was implemented on the test subset to prevent the model from overfitting. Our results indicate that it is possible to compress the spectral line profiles more than 27 times (which corresponds to the reduction of the data dimensionality from 110 to 4) while having a 4DN average reconstruction error, which is comparable to the variations in the line continuum. The mean squared error and the reconstruction error of even statistical moments sharply decrease when the dimensionality of the embedding layer increases from 1 to 4 and almost stop decreasing for higher numbers. The observed occasional improvements in training for values higher than 4 indicate that a better compact embedding may potentially be obtained if other training strategies and longer training times are used. The features learned for the critical four-dimensional case can be interpreted. In particular, three of these four features mainly control the line width, line asymmetry, and line dip formation respectively. The presented results are the first attempt to obtain a compact embedding for spectroscopic line profiles and confirm the value of this approach, in particular for feature extraction, data compression, and denoising.

SMD↗

Watching Without Seeing a Tool to Surveil Astronaut Health Outcomes While Maintaining Astronaut Medical Privacy

BACKGROUND The Privacy Act of 1974 regulates the use a nd disclosure of personally identifiable information by US Federal agencies. The Act applies to biographical, financial, a nd other identity-linked information, a s well a s personal health information (PHI). As such, the use of astronaut PHI is limited to authorized personnel for preapproved uses, with data reporting often limited to aggregated information about groups. These limitations on the use a nd reporting of astronaut PHI complicates surveillance efforts, wherein epidemiologists a t the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)monitor the incidence of targeted health conditions in the astronaut population, or to discover emerging trends of aging and disease. Stratification on one or more covariates –particularly time-period, sex, a nd mission participation –can lead to extremely small datasets such that the reporting of results is potentially attributable to individuals. An additional challenge is the small size of the astronaut population, both in terms of numbers of individuals a s well a s in terms of density of exposure time. Such small datasets yield volatile rate estimates that are difficult to interpret. To a id the epidemiological surveillance efforts, a surveillance tool is required that can (a) satisfy the need for rapid computation of condition-specific incidence and mortality rates; (b) improve the statistical estimates of these estimated rates; and (c) maintain astronaut privacy. Here we describe a nd demonstrate such a tool. METHODS We devised a system that models incidence a nd mortality rates rather than calculating them directly. This ha s the advantage of using all the available data to derive the estimates, lea ding to rates that a re not attributable to any one individual, a nd a re a s numerically stable a s they can be given the extremely limited data. The system models disease endpoints using a Poisson regression model with exposure density (measured in person-years) a s a n offset term. By doing so the model is estimating event counts per person-year, equivalent to modeling the rates directly. It uses a standard (pre-specified)set of covariates; the system does not engage in “model-building” as model parsimony is not the goa l. Instead, it is explicitly recognized that if a covariate is not statistically significant a nd not a confounder then it will likely have very little effect on the estimate of the incidence a nd mortality rates. Users are able to specify the disease endpoint of interest and the covariates over which they would like to stratify. The system then uses the resulting model to compute the estimated rates for the user-chosen configuration of variables as visualizes those either over an age range within a specified time-period, or over time for astronauts with a specified age range. RESULTS The first iteration of the tool computes incidence a nd mortality rates for cardiovascular conditions and cancers. Code ha s been developed to retrieve the appropriate data from the IMPALA analysis platform, compute the models for incidence a nd mortality, a nd then use those models to generate the corresponding rate curves. A companion graphical user interface allows the user to specify the curves and visualize the results. CONCLUSIONS It is important to note that the rapid surveillance tool described here is neither meant to be a definitive assessment of the incidence or mortality of any particular disease or condition in the astronaut population, nor is it meant to be used for research purposes. Rather, it is meant as an early indicator that in-depth investigation may be warranted. By automating a repetitive process and leveraging carefully curated astronaut health outcomes, the tool makes possible a rapid “first look” into known areas of concern, and, if used judiciously, may surface new areas of concern for long-term astronaut health. This work is supported in part by the Translational Research Institute for Space Health (TRISH) through NASA Cooperative Agreement NNX16AO69A.

R J Reynolds↗

CRN5EXP: Expert system for statistical quality control

The purpose of the Expert System CRN5EXP is to assist in checking the quality of the coils at two very important mills: Hot Rolling and Cold Rolling in a steel plant. The system interprets the statistical quality control charts, diagnoses and predicts the quality of the steel. Measurements of process control variables are recorded in a database and sample statistics such as the mean and the range are computed and plotted on a control chart. The chart is analyzed through patterns using the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) and a forward chaining technique to reach a conclusion about the causes of defects and to take management measures for the improvement of the quality control techniques. The Expert System combines the certainty factors associated with the process control variables to predict the quality of the steel. The paper presents the approach to extract data from the database, the reason to combine certainty factors, the architecture and the use of the Expert System. However, the interpretation of control charts patterns requires the human expert's knowledge and lends to Expert Systems rules.

Hentea, Mariana↗

A qualitative assessment of a random process proposed as an atmospheric turbulence model

A random process is formed by the product of two Gaussian processes and the sum of that product with a third Gaussian process. The resulting total random process is interpreted as the sum of an amplitude modulated process and a slowly varying, random mean value. The properties of the process are examined, including an interpretation of the process in terms of the physical structure of atmospheric motions. The inclusion of the mean value variation gives an improved representation of the properties of atmospheric motions, since the resulting process can account for the differences in the statistical properties of atmospheric velocity components and their gradients. The application of the process to atmospheric turbulence problems, including the response of aircraft dynamic systems, is examined. The effects of the mean value variation upon aircraft loads are small in most cases, but can be important in the measurement and interpretation of atmospheric turbulence data.

Sidwell, K.↗

Plasmaspheric Drainage Plumes: Inner-Magnetospheric Coupling from the IMAGE/EUV Perspective

Plasmaspheric drainage plumes appear in the aftermath of periods of enhanced convection/erosion and are interpreted as a near-equatorial signature of the redistribution of thermal plasma along streamlines. Analysis of IMAGE/EUV observations from "FirstLight" through the end of calendar year 2002 reveals that for Kp greater than or equal to 3, there is an 84% probability of observing a plasmaspheric plume in EUV data. We present a statistical analysis of the geomagnetic conditions [Kp, Dst, and solar wind-induced electric field] associated with EUV plume observations. This analysis yields a peak in observational probability when Kp = 4 and Dst = -50 nT. Additionally, EUV pllume observations are associated with a solar wind-induced convection electric field at Earth [Ev, SM] characterized by bi-modal behavior with a positive mode peaked at approximately 4 m V(raised dot) m(sup -1) and a negative model that peaks at -2 mV (raised dot) m(sup -1). Analysis of the time rate of change of the plume-associated Ev, SM indicated that once the mechanism for plume formation is initiated, a slowly changing convection environment is required to allow for sufficient plume development prior to EUV detection.

Adrian, Mark L.↗

Interpretation of Zerodur® Strength Data

Recent, detailed fractographic analysis of Zerodur® strength test specimens prepared by linear grinding and etching with a proprietary process indicated low frequency damage to be the strength limiting defects Recent, detailed fractographic analysis of Zerodur® strength test specimens prepared by linear grinding and etching with a proprietary process indicated low frequency damage to be the strength limiting defects [1]. The 2-parameter Weibull distribution is usually assumed when working with ceramic and glasses such as Zerodur®, although 3-parameter behavior is occasionally considered [2]. Detailed statistical modeling of the Zerodur® strength data with the was initial perspective of a 3-parameter Weibull distribution gave unsatisfying results [3]. The subsequent fractographic investigation indicated [1] that the usual assumption of many small, random, noninteracting flaws [4] was not represented, but instead, less frequent, aligned flaws along etching ridges parallel to the grinding direction were present, Figure 1. It was thus concluded that the strength of Zerodur® as prepared was not Weibull distributed. The flaws represent a sparse flaw population relative to typical grinding damage, but an extensive occurrence (high frequency) of handling damage. We examine the type of distribution present and explain the appearance of a 3-parameter distribution.

Glass, ceramic, strength, Weibull, distribution, m↗