Results for “Deep uncertainty” — Page 12

NASA NTRS2005

Retrieve Optically Thick Ice Cloud Microphysical Properties by Using Airborne Dual-Wavelength Radar Measurements

An algorithm to retrieve optically thick ice cloud microphysical property profiles is developed by using the GSFC 9.6 GHz ER-2 Doppler Radar (EDOP) and the 94 GHz Cloud Radar System (CRS) measurements aboard the high-altitude ER-2 aircraft. In situ size distribution and total water content data from the CRYSTAL-FACE field campaign are used for the algorithm development. To reduce uncertainty in calculated radar reflectivity factors (Ze) at these wavelengths, coincident radar measurements and size distribution data are used to guide the selection of mass-length relationships and to deal with the density and non-spherical effects of ice crystals on the Ze calculations. The algorithm is able to retrieve microphysical property profiles of optically thick ice clouds, such as, deep convective and anvil clouds, which are very challenging for single frequency radar and lidar. Examples of retrieved microphysical properties for a deep convective clouds are presented, which show that EDOP and CRS measurements provide rich information to study cloud structure and evolution. Good agreement between IWPs derived from an independent submillimeter-wave radiometer, CoSSIR, and dual-wavelength radar measurements indicates accuracy of the IWC retrieved from the two-frequency radar algorithm.

Wang, Zhien↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Critical Examination of Spatial Biases Between MODIS and MISR Aerosol Products - Application for Potential AERONET Deployment

AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data are the primary benchmark for evaluating satellite-retrieved aerosol properties. However, despite its extensive coverage, the representativeness of the AERONET data is rarely discussed. Indeed, many studies have shown that satellite retrieval biases have a significant degree of spatial correlation that may be problematic for higher-level processes or inverse-emissions-modeling studies. To consider these issues and evaluate relative performance in regions of few surface observations, cross-comparisons between the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) products of operational MODIS Collection 5.1 Dark Target (DT) and operational MODIS Collection 5.1 Deep Blue (DB) with MISR version 22 were conducted. Through such comparisons, we can observe coherent spatial features of the AOD bias while side-stepping the full analysis required for determining when or where either retrieval is more correct. We identify regions where MODIS to MISR AOD ratios were found to be above 1.4 and below 0.7. Regions where lower boundary condition uncertainty is likely to be a dominant factor include portions of Western North America, the Andes mountains, Saharan Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and Central Asia. Similarly, microphysical biases may be an issue in South America, and specific parts of Southern Africa, India Asia, East Asia, and Indonesia. These results help identify high-priority locations for possible future deployments of both in situ and ground based remote sensing measurements. The Supplement includes a km1 file.

Shi, Y.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Extravehicular Activity Asteroid Exploration and Sample Collection Capability

One of the challenging primary objectives associated with NASA's Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission (ARCM) is to demonstrate deep space Extravehicular Activity (EVA) and tools and to obtain asteroid samples to return to Earth for further study. Prior Shuttle and International Space Station (ISS) spacewalks have benefited from engineered EVA interfaces which have been designed and manufactured on Earth. Rigid structurally mounted handrails, and tools with customized interfaces and restraints optimize EVA performance. For ARCM, EVA complexity increases due to the uncertainty of the asteroid properties. The variability of rock size, shape and composition, as well as behavior of the asteroid capture mechanism will complicate EVA translation, tool restraint, and body stabilization. The unknown asteroid hardness and brittleness will complicate tool use. The rock surface will introduce added safety concerns for cut gloves and debris control. Feasible solutions to meet ARCM EVA objectives were identified using experience gained during Apollo, Shuttle, and ISS EVAs, terrestrial mountaineering practices, NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations (NEEMO) 16 mission, and during Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory testing in the Modified Advanced Crew Escape Suit (MACES) suit. This paper will summarize the overall operational concepts for conducting EVAs for the ARCM mission including translation paths and body restraint methods, potential tools used to extract the samples, design implications for the Asteroid Redirect Vehicle (ARV) for EVA, and the results of early development testing of potential EVA tasks.

Sipila, Stephanie A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Extravehicular Activity Asteroid Exploration and Sample Collection Capability

One of the challenging primary objectives associated with NASA's Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission (ARCM) is to demonstrate deep space Extravehicular Activity (EVA) and tools and to obtain asteroid samples to return to Earth for further study. Prior Shuttle and International Space Station (ISS) spacewalks have benefited from engineered EVA interfaces which have been designed and manufactured on Earth. Rigid structurally mounted handrails, and tools with customized interfaces and restraints optimize EVA performance. For ARCM, EVA complexity increases due to the uncertainty of the asteroid properties. The variability of rock size, shape and composition, as well as behavior of the asteroid capture mechanism will complicate EVA translation, tool restraint, and body stabilization. The unknown asteroid hardness and brittleness will complicate tool use. The rock surface will introduce added safety concerns for cut gloves and debris control. Feasible solutions to meet ARCM EVA objectives were identified using experience gained during Apollo, Shuttle, and ISS EVAs, terrestrial mountaineering practices, NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations (NEEMO) 16 mission, and during Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory testing in the Modified Advanced Crew Escape Suit (MACES) suit. This paper will summarize the overall operational concepts for conducting EVAs for the ARCM mission including translation paths and body restraint methods, potential tools used to extract the samples, design implications for the Asteroid Redirect Vehicle (ARV) for EVA, and the results of early development testing of potential EVA tasks.

Sipila, Stephanie A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis and Optimization of Test Plans for Advanced Exploration Systems Reliability and Supportability

Future crewed exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will operate farther from Earth and be logistically isolated for longer than any previous human spaceflight mission. Under these conditions, supportability and reliability willbestronger drivers of mission mass and risk than they have been in the past. Items with high failure rates, or uncertain failure rates, can result in high spares mass requirements and/or high risk on deep space missions. Testing is a critical element of system development which provides the opportunity to identify and resolve design issues, defects, or other failure modes before they cause problems during a mission. Reliability growth programs can reduce failure rates by identifying and remove failure modes via design changes, and long-duration life testing can provide valuable data to reduce failure rate estimate uncertainty and verify (to some level of confidence) that components are as reliable as expected. Testing activities take time and resources, however, and must be incorporated into program plans in order to be fully effective. This paper presents an integrated reliability test plan analysis and optimization methodology, which has been used to inform Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Life Support Systems (LSS) ground test planning for future missions. The methodology determines the optimal number of test units to purchase and allocation of test time –split between reliability growth and uncertainty reduction testing –across a given set of items in order to minimize spares mass for a given mission under constraints on total test cost and schedule. Model outputs also include expected spares mass after testing and the expected number of modifications or refurbishments during testing, both of which can inform program planning. Discussion of the model, conclusions, and future work are also presented.

Testing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis and Optimization of Test Plans for Advanced Exploration Systems Reliability and Supportability

Future crewed exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will operate farther from Earth and be logistically isolated for longer than any previous human spaceflight mission. Under these conditions, supportability and reliability willbestronger drivers of mission mass and risk than they have been in the past. Items with high failure rates, or uncertain failure rates, can result in high spares mass requirements and/or high risk on deep space missions. Testing is a critical element of system development which provides the opportunity to identify and resolve design issues, defects, or other failure modes before they cause problems during a mission. Reliability growth programs can reduce failure rates by identifying and remove failure modes via design changes, and long-duration life testing can provide valuable data to reduce failure rate estimate uncertainty and verify (to some level of confidence) that components are as reliable as expected. Testing activities take time and resources, however, and must be incorporated into program plans in order to be fully effective. This paper presents an integrated reliability test plan analysis and optimization methodology, which has been used to inform Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Life Support Systems (LSS) ground test planning for future missions. The methodology determines the optimal number of test units to purchase and allocation of test time –split between reliability growth and uncertainty reduction testing –across a given set of items in order to minimize spares mass for a given mission under constraints on total test cost and schedule. Model outputs also include expected spares mass after testing and the expected number of modifications or refurbishments during testing, both of which can inform program planning. Discussion of the model, conclusions, and future work are also presented.

Testing↗

NASA NTRS1990

A deep redshift survey of IRAS galaxies towards the Bootes void

Redshifts were measured for a complete sample of galaxies detected by the IRAS within 11.5 deg of the center of the void in Bootes discovered by Kirshner et al (1981). There are 12 IRAS galaxies within the void as defined by the above authors, seven of which were discovered in this survey. One of these has a companion at the same redshift. The resulting density of IRAS galaxies in the void is measured to be between 1/6 and 1/3 of the average density; the uncertainty is dominated by Poisson statistics. Good agreement is found between the selection function and number density derived from the present sample and those derived from the all-sky sample of Strauss (1989). The optical spectra of the newly found galaxies in the void are typical of IRAS galaxies in the field.

Dey, Arjun↗

NASA NTRS1999

Deep Space Control Challenges of the New Millennium

The exploration of deep space presents a variety of significant control challenges. Long communication delays coupled with challenging new science objectives require high levels of system autonomy and increasingly demanding pointing and control capabilities. Historically, missions based on the use of a large single spacecraft have been successful and popular since the early days of NASA. However, these large spacecraft missions are currently being displaced by more frequent and more focused missions based on the use of smaller and less expensive spacecraft designs. This trend drives the need to design smart software and good algorithms which together with the miniaturization of control components will improve performance while replacing the heavier and more expensive hardware used in the past. NASA's future space exploration will also include mission types that have never been attempted before, posing significant challenges to the underlying control system. This includes controlled landing on small bodies (e.g., asteroids and comets), sample return missions (where samples are brought back from other planets), robotic exploration of planetary surfaces (e.g., intelligent rovers), high precision formation flying, and deep space optical interferometry, While the control of planetary spacecraft for traditional flyby and orbiter missions are based on well-understood methodologies, control approaches for many future missions will be fundamentally different. This paradigm shift will require completely new control system development approaches, system architectures, and much greater levels of system autonomy to meet expected performance in the presence of significant environmental disturbances, and plant uncertainties. This paper will trace the motivation for these changes and will layout the approach taken to meet the new challenges. Emerging missions will be used to explain and illustrate the need for these changes.

Bayard, David S.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Radio occultation studies of the Venus atmosphere with the Magellan spacecraft. 1: Experimental description and performance

While primarily designed for radar studies of the Venus surface, the high effective isotropic radiated power (EIRP) from the Magellan spacecraft makes it an ideal transmitter for use in radio occultation measurements of the refractivity and absorptivity of the Venus atmosphere. Such experiments have been conducted involving transmissions at 2.3 GHz and 8.4 GHz (13 cm and 3.6 cm, respectively), during spacecraft ingress. Since the stability of the spacecraft transmitter is critical for accurately determining the Doppler shift and amplitude attenuation created as the ray penetrates the atmosphere, the spacecraft transmitter was locked to a 2.1 GHz uplink from a 70-meter DSN station which also received the signals. Because of the high directivity of the spacecraft antenna, and the significant ray bending in the deep Venus atmosphere, a spacecraft tracking maneuver was designed to keep the spacecraft antenna pointed in the direction of the refracted ray path back to Earth. This tracking maneuver, plus the high EIRP of the Magellan transmitter has yielded 3.6 cm refractivity and absorptivity profiles down to the 35 km altitude and 13 cm profiles down to the altitude of critical refraction (approximately 33 km). The statistical uncertainties in the derived profiles are significantly lower than those previously obtained, resulting in extremely accurate profiles of H2SO4 (g) abundance as discussed in an accompanying paper.

Steffes, Paul G.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Radiometric Spacecraft Tracking for Deep Space Navigation

Interplanetary spacecraft navigation relies on three types of terrestrial tracking observables.1) Ranging measures the distance between the observing site and the probe. 2) The line-of-sight velocity of the probe is inferred from Doppler-shift by measuring the frequency shift of the received signal with respect to the unshifted frequency. 3) Differential angular coordinates of the probe with respect to natural radio sources are nominally obtained via a differential delay technique of (Delta) DOR (Delta Differential One-way Ranging). The accuracy of spacecraft coordinate determination depends on the measurement uncertainties associated with each of these three techniques. We evaluate the corresponding sources of error and present a detailed error budget.

ranging↗

NASA NTRS2016

Deep Radiostratigraphy of the East Antarctic Plateau: Connecting the Dome C and Vostok Ice Core Sites

Several airborne radar-sounding surveys are used to trace internal reflections around the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica Dome C and Vostok ice core sites. Thirteen reflections, spanning the last two glacial cycles, are traced within 200 km of Dome C, a promising region for million-year-old ice, using the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics High-Capacity Radar Sounder. This provides a dated stratigraphy to 2318 m depth at Dome C. Reflection age uncertainties are calculated from the radar range precision and signal-to-noise ratio of the internal reflections. The radar stratigraphy matches well with the Multichannel Coherent Radar Depth Sounder (MCoRDS) radar stratigraphy obtained independently. We show that radar sounding enables the extension of ice core ages through the ice sheet with an additional radar-related age uncertainty of approximately 1/3-1/2 that of the ice cores. Reflections are extended along the Byrd-Totten Glacier divide, using University of Texas/Technical University of Denmark and MCoRDS surveys. However, core-to-core connection is impeded by pervasive aeolian terranes, and Lake Vostok's influence on reflection geometry. Poor radar connection of the two ice cores is attributed to these effects and suboptimal survey design in affected areas. We demonstrate that, while ice sheet internal radar reflections are generally isochronal and can be mapped over large distances, careful survey planning is necessary to extend ice core chronologies to distant regions of the East Antarctic ice sheet.

airborne electromagnetic soundings↗

NASA NTRS1995

Deep galaxy counts in the K band with the Kech telescope

We present deep galaxy counts in the K (lambda 2.2 micrometer) band, obtained at the W. M. Kech 10 m telescope. The data reach limiting magnitudes K approximately 24 mag, about 5 times deeper than the deepest published K-band images to date. The counts are performed in three small (approximately 1 min), widely separated high-latitude fields. Extensive Monte Carlo tests were used to derive the comleteness corrections and minimize photometric biases. The counts continue to rise, with no sign of a turnover, down to the limits of our data, with the logarithmic slope of d log N/dm = 0.315 +/- 0.02 between K = 20 and 24 mag. This implies a cumulative surface density of approximately 5 x 10(exp 5) galaxies/sq deg, or approximately 2 x 10(exp 10) over the entire sky, down to K = 24 mag. Our counts are in good agreement with, although slightly lower than, those from the Hawaii Deep Survey by Cowie and collaborators; the discrepancies may be due to the small differences in the aperture corrections. We compare our counts with some of the available theoretical predictions. The data do not require models with a high value of Omega(sub 0), but can be well fitted by models with no (or little) evolution, and cosmologies with a low value of Omega(sub 0). Given the uncertainties in the models, it may be premature to put useful constrains on the value of Omega(sub 0) from the counts alone. Optical-to-IR colors are computed, using CCD data obtaind previously at Palomar. We find a few red galaxies with (r-K) approximately greater than 5 mag, or (i-K) approximately greater than 5 mag; these may be ellipticals at z approximately 1. While the redshift distribution of galaxies in our counts is still unknown, the flux limits reached would allow us to detect unobscured L(sub *) galaxies out to substantial redshifts (z greater than 3?).

Djorgovski, S.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Orbit Transfers for Dawn's Vesta Operations : Navigation and Mission Design Experience

Dawn, a mission belonging to NASA's Discovery Program, was launched on September 27, 2007 to explore main belt asteroids in order to yield insights into important questions about the formation and evolution of the solar system. From July of 2011 to August of 2012, the Dawn spacecraft successfully returned valuable science data, collected during the four planned mapping orbits at its first target asteroid, Vesta. Each mapping orbit was designed to enable a different set of scientific observations. Such a mission would have been impossible without the low thrust ion propulsion system (IPS). Maneuvering a spacecraft using only the IPS for the transfers between the mapping orbits posed many technical challenges to Dawn's flight team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Each transfer needs a robust plan that accounts for uncertainties in maneuver execution, orbit determination, and physical characteristics of Vesta. This paper discusses the mission design and navigational experience during Dawn's Vesta operations. Topics include requirements and constraints from Dawn's science and spacecraft teams, orbit determination and maneuver design and building process for transfers, developing timelines for thrust sequence build cycles, and the process of scheduling very demanding coverage with ground antennae at NASA's Deep Space Network.

low thrust↗

NASA NTRS2014

Type-Ia Supernova Rates to Redshift 2.4 from Clash: The Cluster Lensing and Supernova Survey with Hubble

We present the supernova (SN) sample and Type-Ia SN (SN Ia) rates from the Cluster Lensing And Supernova survey with Hubble (CLASH). Using the Advanced Camera for Surveys and the Wide Field Camera 3 on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), we have imaged 25 galaxy-cluster fields and parallel fields of non-cluster galaxies. We report a sample of 27 SNe discovered in the parallel fields. Of these SNe, approximately 13 are classified as SN Ia candidates, including four SN Ia candidates at redshifts z greater than 1.2.We measure volumetric SN Ia rates to redshift 1.8 and add the first upper limit on the SN Ia rate in the range z greater than 1.8 and less than 2.4. The results are consistent with the rates measured by the HST/ GOODS and Subaru Deep Field SN surveys.We model these results together with previous measurements at z less than 1 from the literature. The best-fitting SN Ia delay-time distribution (DTD; the distribution of times that elapse between a short burst of star formation and subsequent SN Ia explosions) is a power law with an index of 1.00 (+0.06(0.09))/(-0.06(0.10)) (statistical) (+0.12/−0.08) (systematic), where the statistical uncertainty is a result of the 68% and 95% (in parentheses) statistical uncertainties reported for the various SN Ia rates (from this work and from the literature), and the systematic uncertainty reflects the range of possible cosmic star-formation histories. We also test DTD models produced by an assortment of published binary population synthesis (BPS) simulations. The shapes of all BPS double-degenerate DTDs are consistent with the volumetric SN Ia measurements, when the DTD models are scaled up by factors of 3-9. In contrast, all BPS single-degenerate DTDs are ruled out by the measurements at greater than 99% significance level.

SUPERNOVA↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Deep Space Network in the Common Platform Era: A Prototype Implementation at DSS-13

To enhance NASA's Deep Space Network (DSN), an effort is underway to improve network performance and simplify its operation and maintenance. This endeavor, known as the "Common Platform," has both short- and long-term objectives. The long-term work has not begun yet; however, the activity to realize the short-term goals has started. There are three goals for the long-term objective: 1. Convert the DSN into a digital network where signals are digitized at the output of the down converters at the antennas and are distributed via a digital IF switch to the processing platforms. 2. Employ a set of common hardware for signal processing applications, e.g., telemetry, tracking, radio science and Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI). 3. Minimize in-house developments in favor of purchasing commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) equipment. The short-term goal is to develop a prototype of the above at NASA's experimental station known as DSS-13. This station consists of a 34m beam waveguide antenna with cryogenically cooled amplifiers capable of handling deep space research frequencies at S-, X-, and Ka-bands. Without the effort at DSS-13, the implementation of the long-term goal can potentially be risky because embarking on the modification of an operational network without prior preparations can, among other things, result in unwanted service interruptions. Not only are there technical challenges to address, full network implementation of the Common Platform concept includes significant cost uncertainties. Therefore, a limited implementation at DSS-13 will contribute to risk reduction. The benefits of employing common platforms for the DSN are lower cost and improved operations resulting from ease of maintenance and reduced number of spare parts. Increased flexibility for the user is another potential benefit. This paper will present the plans for DSS-13 implementation. It will discuss key issues such as the Common Platform architecture, choice of COTS equipment, and the standard for radio frequency (RF) to digital interface.

Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN)↗

NASA NTRS2021

Additional Characterization of Dome-C to Improve its Use as an Invariant Visible Calibration Target

Dome-C is a recommended CEOS invariant target that has been utilized by the calibration community for several decades for monitoring onboard sensor calibration systems as well radiometric inter-comparisons. Dome-C is a high-altitude Earth target located on the East Antarctic interior plateau, which has a permanent bright, flat, and homogeneous snow-covered surface with little aerosol, cloud cover, snowfall, and water vapor burden. This paper describes angular directional models for characterizing the Dome-C top-of-atmosphere (TOA)radiances as a function of cosine solar zenith angle for pre-solstice and post-solstice conditions. The 0.86-μm channel Dome-C reflectance decreases over the summer due to snow metamorphosisis not observed by the visible channels. Coinciding Terra and AquaMODIS Dome-C reflectance showed occasional inter-annual anomalies when compared against the deep convective cloud and Libya-4 invariant targets observations. Further characterization of the Dome-C reflectances with the Dome-C surface broadband albedo, Antarctic Oscillation(AAO) index, and ozone concentration values were evaluated. A strong correlation with ozone was found for the 0.55-μm and 0.65-μm MODIS channels. The monthly Dome-C reflectances were linearly regressed with ozone to derive the ozone correction coefficients. The uncertainty in the Aqua-and Terra-MODIS Dome-C trends was reduced by half after applying ozone corrections to both the 0.55-μm and 0.65-μm channelTOA observations.

David R Doelling↗

NASA NTRS2002

Reliability Methods for Shield Design Process

Providing protection against the hazards of space radiation is a major challenge to the exploration and development of space. The great cost of added radiation shielding is a potential limiting factor in deep space operations. In this enabling technology, we have developed methods for optimized shield design over multi-segmented missions involving multiple work and living areas in the transport and duty phase of space missions. The total shield mass over all pieces of equipment and habitats is optimized subject to career dose and dose rate constraints. An important component of this technology is the estimation of two most commonly identified uncertainties in radiation shield design, the shielding properties of materials used and the understanding of the biological response of the astronaut to the radiation leaking through the materials into the living space. The largest uncertainty, of course, is in the biological response to especially high charge and energy (HZE) ions of the galactic cosmic rays. These uncertainties are blended with the optimization design procedure to formulate reliability-based methods for shield design processes. The details of the methods will be discussed.

Tripathi, R. K.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Millipol, a millimeter/submillimeter wavelength polarimeter - Instrument, operation, and calibration

An instrument capable of measuring the polarization characteristics of weakly polarized, cold dust at millimeter and submillimeter wavelengths is presented in detail. The operation and calibration of this polarimeter at a wavelength of 1300 microns, configured for the NRAO 12-meter telescope, are discussed. Deep observations of Jupiter using this instrument revealed a main-beam instrumental polarization at, or below, the 0.2 percent level. Lunar limb observations revealed a sidelobe polarization sensitivity, in the range 0.25 percent - 1.0 percent. Further, through these efforts the nonthermal polarized flux from Jupiter at a level of about 0.04 percent of the thermal flux has been detected. Astronomical polarization measurements to 0.03 percent are possible, limited by the uncertainties in the instrumental polarization. This instrument has been primarily employed to measure and map magnetic-field directions in the very optically opaque cores of massive molecular clouds.

Clemens, Dan P.↗