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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling and simulation of multiphase flows

This presentation provides an overview of the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL) multiphase computational fluid dynamics codes. The highly successful Multiphase Flows with Interphase eXchanges (MFIX) suite has been used to model a wide range of applications including post-combustion carbon capture, bioreactor optimization, and bio-FCC regeneration. MFIX-Exa, a state-of-the-art CFD code, developed under DOE’s Exascale Computing Project, is built on the AMReX software framework (https://amrex-codes.github.io/) and is designed to leverage modern accelerator-based compute architectures. This presentation further reviews the underlying physical models of both MFIX and MFIX-Exa and contrasts their similarities and differences. Examples of past and present CFD simulations will illustrate how scientific computing at NETL is being used not only for scientific exploration but also for design, optimization and scale-up of multiphase flow devices.

Musser, Jordan [NETL]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Large eddy simulation of wind farm performance in horizontally and vertically staggered layouts

This numerical investigation employs Large Eddy Simulation (LES) coupled with Actuator Disk Model (ADM) to evaluate wind farm layout optimization strategies. The study presents a systematic analysis of aligned, horizontal staggering, vertical staggering, and mixed (combination of horizontal and vertical) staggering configurations, aiming to establish optimal design parameters for enhanced power production. The investigation examines key performance metrics including mean velocity distributions, turbulence intensity characteristics, and power generation efficiency. Results demonstrate better performance of both horizontal and vertical staggering patterns compared to conventional aligned configurations, with horizontal staggering exhibiting notably higher power output than vertical arrangements. Our findings also suggest that mixed configurations, incorporating both horizontal and vertical staggering, can offer optimal performance characteristics. As a result, this research advances the understanding of wake interactions in complex wind farm layouts and provides design guidelines for maximizing wind farm power generation efficiency through strategic turbine positioning.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving Resiliency in Planning MW-Scale Medium and Heavy Duty EV Charging Stations Considering TSCOTS Optimization

Electrification of heavy-duty (HD) vehicles marks an important milestone and technical challenge in the electric vehicle (EV) industry and the public grid. However, implementing EV charging at this scale will necessitate that traditional truck stops be updated with EV charging infrastructure that could represent 10's of MW in electricity consumption. Furthermore, as the transportation sector is represented as critical infrastructure, supporting resiliency considerations in EV charging infrastructure will be critical. This paper proposes an optimization-based approach for optimally designing a MW-scale microgrid charging network. This approach transforms conventional designed truck stops into a reliable HDEV charging stations capable of overnight slow charging and 30-minute to 1 hour fast charging. Using a mixed-integer linear program formulation blending capacity planning and reliability constraints, an optimal network configuration can be solved for a proposed EV charging station that includes photovoltaic and battery energy storage capabilities.

Ponce, Moises [University of Tennessee, Knoxville ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing ablator thickness for laser shock experiments

In laser shock experiments, a well-defined, flat-top shock wave at the ablator/sample interface is important for accurately probing material response under uniaxial strain compression. However, the relationship between the ablator thickness and the resulting shock wave characteristics is insufficiently understood, limiting the ability to design optimal experiments. To address this need, we conducted a systematic experimental study using a 100 J laser to shock-compress polyimide ablators to peak stresses ranging from 20.4 to 111.6 GPa. Laser interferometry diagnostics measured the transmitted wave profiles at the ablator/sample interface, consistently showing a single jump followed by a constant peak state before the arrival of release waves. Here, by analyzing shock transit time, flat-top duration, and stress, our results establish a framework for selecting ablator thickness to maximize the flat-top duration, improving the precision and reproducibility of laser shock experiments.

design of experiments↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing processing conditions for additively reinforced thermoforming (ART) in convergent manufacturing

This study utilized additively reinforced thermoforming (ART) to enhance the thermomechanical properties of polyethylene terephthalate glycol (PETG) sheet. ART materials were produced by overprinting PETG/carbon fiber filament (PETG/CF) on neat PETG sheets at varying conditions. The mechanical properties of the PETG sheet, PETG/CF, and ART materials were assessed, showing that ART exhibited superior tensile strength and modulus of elasticity. The tensile strength and modulus in the x-direction for ART at 265°C were 57.32 ± 2.9 MPa and 3.41 ± 0.4 GPa, respectively, compared to 49.1 ± 0.5 MPa and 1.92 ± 0.09 GPa for neat PETG. Microstructural analysis revealed strong interfacial adhesion between layers, while thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), and heat deflection temperature analysis provided insights into the ART material's thermoforming behavior, aiding design optimization for enhanced stiffness, reduced necking, and improved customization. In conclusion, this information can be used to design for the thermoforming operation.

Additive reinforcement↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of 3D-printed surface textures on wear mechanism in 3-body abrasion of soil

This study systematically investigates the enhancement of wear resistance in 3D printed surface textures through both experimental and theoretical approaches. Three distinct surface morphologies (Smooth Surface, Surface with uniformly distributed Pits, and Surface with uniformly distributed Bumps) were fabricated using High-Impact Polystyrene, where the meso-scale textures were precisely controlled through the 3D printing process. Wear behavior was evaluated using a 3-body wear tester in an abrasive particle environment, analyzing the influence of surface textures under various operating conditions. Systematic wear tests revealed that optimally designed surface textures achieved a remarkable 77 % reduction in wear compared to the worst-performing sample. The wear mechanisms were comprehensively characterized through weight loss measurements, Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), and Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) analyses, elucidating the surface morphology changes and their interaction with wear particles. Notably, the study identified how the geometric characteristics of surface textures influence the movement of wear particles and the distribution of contact stresses. Discrete element method simulations corroborated the experimental findings, providing theoretical validation for the enhanced wear resistance of the optimal structure. The high correlation between simulated wear patterns and experimental results validates the reliability of the proposed design methodology. In conclusion, these results demonstrate that 3D printed surface texturing offers a cost-effective and scalable approach to significantly improve wear resistance in engineering applications, presenting a practical alternative to conventional, high-cost surface engineering methods.

3-body abrasion↗
DOE OSTI2025

Heating Ventilation Air-Conditioning (HVAC) System Analysis and Optimization for Revit with the OpenStudio Analytical Framework (CRADA Final Report)

This project proposes to integrate the NREL-developed OpenStudio (OS) and its accompanying Analytical Framework (OSAF) into Autodesk’s (ADSK’s) market leading suite of building information modeling (BIM) tools. As a result, BIM users will gain access to advanced (but user-friendly) building energy modeling (BEM), calibration, and design optimization capabilities. Following integration, the BIM software will automatically generate a consistent OS-based BEM model, allowing users to develop projects in an integrated manner, moving back and forth between architectural and engineering perspectives without redundancy or data loss, saving time and effort.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Off-Design Load Analysis of sCO2 Bottoming Cycle for a Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plant with Carbon Capture

As an alternative to a steam cycle, a supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power cycle can be considered. Able et. al performed an analysis of an sCO2 cycle in a 2x2-1 configuration; however, this study did not include carbon capture. Previous studies assumed an H-Frame turbine and added a solvent based 95% carbon capture system and performed a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) optimization for the plant. Their results suggest a LCOE slightly better than when using a steam cycle. In the study, steam is still generated in the heat recovery sections for the solvent regeneration in the carbon capture stripper reboiler. H-Frame gas turbines are also assumed. This work starts with the optimal design from the mentioned work to analyze the off-design performance of the power plant from 100% down to 50% load. The main operational findings and plant-efficiency for off-load conditions while maintaining the target CO2 capture rate are presented. H-Frame gas turbine off-design performance and exhaust conditions to the heat recovery section are obtained from commercial software, Thermoflow®. The CO2 turbomachinery, heat exchangers and other unit operations are sized and implemented in an Aspen Plus® model. Using the gas turbine exhaust conditions as input, the sCO2 cycle is optimized by adjusting stream split ratios, sCO2 circulation flowrate and compressor speed for maximum efficiency. This is done while keeping the target 95% CO2 capture.

Chinen, Anderson Soares↗
DOE OSTI2025

A two-dimensional numerical study of the magneto-Rayleigh–Taylor instability with FLASH: Application to the staged Z-pinch concept

Magnetically driven implosions involving a liner collapsing onto a target are inherently vulnerable to the magneto-Rayleigh–Taylor instability (MRTI). Among the various approaches proposed to achieve fusion conditions within the target, the staged Z-pinch (SZP) concept employs a high-Z liner, the advantages of which remain an active area of investigation. Consequently, ongoing design optimization efforts are essential, while critical physical processes such as magnetic field (B-field) diffusion and radiation transport increase the complexity of required simulations. In this study, we utilize the new capabilities of the FLASH code to simulate in 2D, for the first time using this code, staged Z-pinch configurations (designated SZP1 and SZP1*), focusing on their stability. First, a comparison of simulation results with theoretical predictions of MRTI growth provide new insights into the often-overlooked influences of high mesh resolution and initial perturbation seeding on instability dynamics. These findings then lead to a discussion on potential improvements for future SZP experiments. These include the use of an axial B-field stabilization and the optimization of radiation transport processes during the implosion. The results presented herein establish the framework for simulating multi-dimensional Z pinches using the FLASH code and pave the way for the development of innovative experimental configurations leveraging its advanced simulation capabilities.

Adaptive mesh refinement↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic Modeling of Near Isothermal Compressor for Transcritical Carbon Dioxide Cycle

Compressors are the major energy consumption components in vapor compression systems, drawing much research effort in reducing carbon emissions. The isothermal compressor integrates the compressor chamber and gas cooler to achieve near isothermal compression, reaching up to 30% energy reduction compared to the traditional isentropic compression work. This paper presents a detailed isothermal compressor model combined with a generalized liquid piston model to account for the carbon dioxide (CO2) isothermal compression process. The model is established based on MATLAB environment. The model uses the real experimental data as boundary conditions and initial settings, which also considers the CO2 solubility in liquid piston (mineral oil) for designing, optimizing and customizing the compression chambers. The validation was carried out with experimental data using a prototype with 3.5 kW capacity. The results have demonstrated the accuracy of the dynamic model (6.2% relative error for chamber pressure and 0.5 K deviation for chamber temperature), which provide a guideline for designing and customizing the isothermal compression cycle.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neural operator transformers capture bifurcating drift-wave turbulence in fusion plasma simulations

Self-consistent modeling of turbulence-driven transport is critical for optimizing confinement in magnetically confined fusion plasmas, such as tokamaks and stellarators. In particular, capturing the long-term co-evolution of turbulence, flow, and background plasma profiles remains computationally challenging. Direct numerical simulation of these multiscale, highly nonlinear processes is often demanding and impractical for real-time control or design optimization. To address this bottleneck, we investigate transformer-based neural operator partial differential equation surrogates for emulating the dynamics of drift-wave turbulence bifurcation mediated by zonal flows, using the modified Hasegawa–Wakatani (MHW) model as a prototypical system. We find that the finetuned neural operator model has excellent performance in capturing the multi-spatiotemporal-scales of MHW turbulence bifurcation and is robust to testing on rare and out-of-distribution dynamics. Specifically, we demonstrate that a single unified model accurately predicts both quasi-steady-state turbulence and a wide range of dynamical transition processes, such as nonlinear saturation, spontaneous suppression of turbulence, and the emergence of macroscopic zonal flows, over time horizons vastly exceeding the local turbulence correlation time. This computationally efficient approach establishes a strong foundation for fast, AI-based modeling of complex, multiscale phenomena in magnetized fusion plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Molecular catalyst and co-catalyst systems based on transition metal complexes for the electrochemical oxidation of alcohols

Molecular catalysts allow deeper study of underlying mechanisms relative to heterogeneous systems by offering a discrete active site to monitor. Mechanistic study with knowledge of key intermediates subsequently enables the development of design principles through an understanding of how improved reactivity or selectivity can be achieved through modification of the catalyst structure. The co-catalytic inclusion of redox mediators (RM), which are small molecules that can aid in the transfer of protons and electrons, has been shown to improve product conversion and selectivity in many molecular systems, through intercepting key intermediates to direct reaction pathways. The primary focus for the majority of molecular electrocatalysts has been on optimizing design for reductive reactions, such as the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER), the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR), and the carbon dioxide reduction reaction (CO 2 RR). By comparison, there has been much less focus on key oxidative reactions by molecular species, apart from the oxygen evolution reaction (OER). The focus of this review is to highlight molecular catalyst systems optimized for the electrochemical oxidation of alcohols. The electrochemical alcohol oxidation reaction (AOR) can serve a role in synthesizing value-added chemicals and can serve as the counterpart to the CO 2 RR by releasing electricity from energy-rich molecules. State-of-the-art molecular systems for the AOR are divided between single-site catalysts and co-catalytic systems with redox mediators. The AOR is contextualized as an energy relevant reaction, an overview of the area is provided, foundational improvements in catalyst systems are highlighted, and future development principles for incorporating redox mediators are suggested.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Remote Americium Detection Using an Optical Sensor: A D-Optimal Strategy for Efficient PLS-Based Modeling

A fiber-optic visible–near-infrared absorption spectroscopy system in a glove box was demonstrated for remote quantification of Am(III) (0–500 µM) and HNO 3 (0.1–9 M) using partial least squares regression (PLSR) models. The sensor platform, featuring a simple plug-and-play spectrophotometer, can enable noninvasive, real-time monitoring of actinide process solutions. To establish a flexible PLSR model calibration strategy, a D-optimal design developed using Nd(III) in previous studies was successfully extended to an actinide system with Am(III) to effectively minimize sample set size while maintaining robust prediction performance. The results suggest strong spectral similarities between Nd(III) and Am(III) and validate Nd(III) as an effective optical surrogate for trivalent actinide species. This work also supports the generalizability of a D-optimal training set selection approach for two-factor systems. The PLS1 models for Am(III) and HNO 3 outperformed a PLS2 model and maintained reasonable performance in the presence of interfering U(VI). The resulting sensor system and multivariate approach provides a flexible and scalable solution for process monitoring, control, and safety in diverse nuclear applications.

actinide↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗
DOE OSTI2025

The state of the art for neutron irradiation experiments from the perspective of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR)

Irradiation experiment campaigns are critical to advancing nuclear energy technologies by providing data on material performance under relevant radiation conditions. Successful irradiation experiments require integrated design efforts that balance technical goals with facility constraints. Here, this paper presents an expert-informed overview of irradiation experiment design at the High Flux Isotope Reactor. It addresses the nuclear materials research and irradiation experiment communities to guide them toward developing technically sound, facility-compatible campaigns. The High Flux Isotope Reactor is a multipurpose reactor supporting isotope production, neutron scattering, and materials testing. Its high, steady-state neutron flux is ideal for irradiation experiments, but successful execution demands coordinated thermal, structural, and reactor physics analyses. The paper outlines the complete development workflow from concept definition and design optimization to safety qualification and post-irradiation examination. Standardized capsule platforms are also discussed in terms of flexibility, specimen capacity, and thermal performance. Common failure modes such as unanticipated geometric variations, can impact temperature-dose profiles and compromise data reliability. Therefore, detailed thermal modeling and accurate as-built characterization are essential for meaningful post-irradiation data interpretation. Key recommendations include early engagement all stakeholders, clearly defined design expectations, and alignment of specimen geometries with post-irradiation examination capabilities. This approach reduces design iterations, enhances data quality, and supports more efficient use of irradiation resources. Strategic and well-planned irradiation testing not only improves individual campaign success but also accelerates the deployment of advanced nuclear technologies. By closing critical data gaps and reducing development risks, the nuclear materials community can more effectively contribute to the future of clean, resilient energy systems.

Experiments↗
DOE OSTI2026

Holistic energy analysis method for thermal management architectures of data centers

Modern high-performance computing (HPC) data centers (DCs), particularly those supporting energy-intensive artificial intelligence (AI) workloads, face escalating thermal management challenges that degrade performance through thermal throttling and drive up cooling power consumption and operational costs. To address this challenge, many have developed a wide variety of thermal management solutions (single-phase, two-phase, direct, indirect, hybrid, and more) which attempt to cool HPC DCs effectively while attempting to minimize overall system power consumption. However, the analysis of these solutions and methods to effectively compare one with another is lacking. Overall power usage effectiveness (PUE) and total-power usage effectiveness (TUE) provide a metric to quantify power consumption but fail to identify components in the system which require further optimization. To address this, we propose a holistic analytical framework – the waterfall diagram (WFD) – which leverages a waterfall chart methodology, offering a comprehensive visualization of both the thermal management system loop and heat flow pathways from individual server components to the outdoor ambient. Use of the WFD enables graphical estimations of power efficiency and cooling performance across each component of a DC cooling system and complements Sankey-style energy flow visualizations by additionally resolving stage-wise temperature changes and incremental TUE contributions. The framework is used in conjunction with simulation-based approaches, to conduct a detailed pressure drop and flow distribution analysis aimed at identifying the optimal coolant distribution architecture for a single-phase direct-to-chip water-cooled DC, which serves as the baseline for subsequent WFD analysis. Among the evaluated architectures, the 3 U modular coolant distribution architecture is found to demonstrate the best performance, considering minimal pressure drop and uniform flow distribution. In addition, TUE is calculated for each cooling loop component based on its associated pressure drop and corresponding pumping power, which are integrated into the WFD. This correlation between TUE and local temperature offers immediate insight into the power efficiency and thermal performance contributions of individual components, facilitating further development and optimization. Examples of WFD applications are presented under varying thermal loads and ambient conditions, demonstrating reasonable cooling strategies. Notably, the 3 U modular architecture maintains a consistent chip case temperature of 85°C, achieving a TUE of 1.016 at ambient temperature of 47°C, and a TUE of 1.026 at ambient temperature of 52°C. The WFD methodology provides an efficient, holistic, and streamlined framework for DC thermal management architecture assessment and enables design optimization which is important for addressing the thermal-fluidic energy challenges of current and next-generation DCs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Potential of Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged With Solar Thermal and Heat Pumps

In this project, we developed a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model that can be used to evaluate the viability of a proposed Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) design. This MATLAB-based model integrates distinct subsystem models for the reservoir, wells, power cycle, and solar field to capture their distinct characteristics. It applies this approach in simulating GeoTES storage and dispatch operations for durations ranging from hourly to seasonal. Using cases studies based on GeoTES designs provided by industry partners - Premier Resource Management (PRM) and EarthBridge Energy - we validated the TEA model estimations of system performance and costs (such as thermal and electrical power/energy inflow and outflow, capital costs, and levelized costs of energy and storage) for both concentrating solar thermal (CST) and Carnot Battery (CB) pairings with GeoTES (CST-GeoTES and CB-GeoTES). For the CST-GeoTES case, the model was validated against the proposed system designed by PRM. It showed good agreement with PRM's estimations when well and pump costs derived from PRM's estimations were used. When GETEM-based costs were used, there was a slight overprediction due to GETEM's project/site agnostic assumption of these costs. From a sensitivity analysis perspective, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the CST-GeoTES case was most sensitive to well flow rate and the charging temperature. An optimal design scenario resulted in an LCOE of 0.11 $\$$/kWhe. CST-GeoTES can also provide a source of heat to meet seasonal demands. With 12-hour and 24-hour levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of 0.018 $\$$/kWhth and 0.022 $\$$/kWhth, respectively, CST-GeoTES could be competitive in the California market with an average industrial price of natural gas in California between 0.041-0.047 $\$$/kWhth. The levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for CST-GeoTES depends on the energy storage duration. Although the LCOS is relatively higher for shorter durations (e.g., ~0.50 $\$$/kWhe for 1 hour of storage), it is an order of magnitude lower (0.06 $\$$/kWhe) for longer storage durations and competitive with lithium-ion batteries (beyond 12 hours of storage) and molten-salt thermal energy storage (beyond 32 hours). Energy. Three options were explored and applied to the EarthBridge case study: (1) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with both hot and cold storage; (2) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with only hot storage; (3) A Carnot Battery using a commercially available heat pump with carbon dioxide (CO2) working fluid and hot storage only. The CB-GeoTES with cold storage only had a slight (round-trip) efficiency advantage over the system without (43.4% vs. 42.8%). This is because the cold storage is limited by the freezing point of water, so the cold storage is not much colder than the environment. The system using commercially available technologies was the least efficient - partly because different cycles were used in the heat pump (CO2) and heat engine (binary cycle) which leads to some inefficiencies. Using the commercially available design, the levelized cost of energy (LCOS) from the model (0.10 $\$$/kWhe) was higher than that estimated by EarthBridge (0.068 $\$$/kWhe). This is because of the low round-trip (38.7%) efficiency of the commercially available design. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the model is most sensitive to electricity price. Including electricity price in the TEA for CB-GeoTES leads to an increase in LCOS from the base value to 0.25 $\$$/kWhe. To determine storage sites suitable for GeoTES, we gathered and analyzed geological, petrophysical, and geophysical data of oil and gas reservoir and aquifers in California and Texas. We down-selected possible sites based on cut-off values for site characteristics (e.g., reservoir temperature, formation thickness, permeability, porosity, depth, and brine salinity) and preliminary costs. Using this approach, the Carrizo-Wilcox, Yegua-Jackson, and Dockum brackish aquifers in Texas were identified as having the highest suitability. Similarly, in the central California region, the White Wolf, Belridge South Tulare, and Belridge South Reef Ridge were the most suitable. Going further, we assessed the storage potential in the selected sites. To do this we developed distributions of reservoir characteristic data and applied a Monte Carlo-based analysis to account for intrinsic uncertainty in the acquired data. The analysis revealed that the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer had the highest storage potential with a mean capacity of 554 TWhth (i.e., 63 TWhe). The estimated capacity serves as an upper limit of storage potential given that not all fields in the basin will be developed. We participated in multiple outreach activities including conference presentations, panel session discussions, and the facilitation of a GeoTES workshop at the NREL Golden campus.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Robust Design Under Uncertainty in Quantum Error Mitigation

Error mitigation techniques are crucial to achieving near-term quantum advantage. Classical postprocessing of quantum computation outcomes is a popular approach for error mitigation, which includes methods, such as zero noise extrapolation, virtual distillation, and learning-based error mitigation. However, these techniques have limitations due to the propagation of uncertainty resulting from the finite shot number of a quantum measurement. In this work, we introduce general and unbiased methods for quantifying the uncertainty and error of error-mitigated observables based on the strategic sampling of error mitigation outcomes. We then extend our approach to demonstrate the optimization of performance and robustness of error mitigation under uncertainty. To illustrate our methods, we apply them to zero noise extrapolation and Clifford date regression in the ground state of the XY model simulated using depolarizing and International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Toronto noise models, respectively. In particular, we optimize the choice of noise levels and the allocation of shots for zero noise extrapolation and the distribution of the training circuits for Clifford data regression. While our methods are readily applicable to any postprocessing-based error mitigation approach, in practice they must not be prohibitively expensive—even though they perform optimizations of the error mitigation hyperparameters requiring sampling of a statistical distribution of error mitigation outcomes. By leveraging surrogate-based optimization, we show that our methods can efficiently perform optimal design for a zero noise extrapolation implementation. We then further demonstrate the transferability of learned zero noise extrapolation hyperparameters to other similar circuits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗