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Results for “Design under uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

JPL Thermal Design Modeling Philosophy and NASA-STD-7009 Standard for Models and Simulations - A Case Study

The Standard JPL thermal engineering practice prescribes worst-case methodologies for design. In this process, environmental and key uncertain thermal parameters (e.g., thermal blanket performance, interface conductance, optical properties) are stacked in a worst case fashion to yield the most hot- or cold-biased temperature. Thus, these simulations would represent the upper and lower bounds. This, effectively, represents JPL thermal design margin philosophy. Uncertainty in the margins and the absolute temperatures is usually estimated by sensitivity analyses and/or by comparing the worst-case results with "expected" results. Applicability of the analytical model for specific design purposes along with any temperature requirement violations are documented in peer and project design review material. In 2008, NASA released NASA-STD-7009, Standard for Models and Simulations. The scope of this standard covers the development and maintenance of models, the operation of simulations, the analysis of the results, training, recommended practices, the assessment of the Modeling and Simulation (M&S) credibility, and the reporting of the M&S results. The Mars Exploration Rover (MER) project thermal control system M&S activity was chosen as a case study determining whether JPL practice is in line with the standard and to identify areas of non-compliance. This paper summarizes the results and makes recommendations regarding the application of this standard to JPL thermal M&S practices.

thermal blanket performance↗
NASA NTRS1981

Multiobjective insensitive design of airplane control systems with uncertain parameters

A multiobjective computer-aided design algorithm has been developed which minimizes the sensitivity of the design objectives to uncertainties in system parameters. The more important uncertain parameters are described by a gaussian random vector with known covariance matrix, and a vector sensitivity objective function is defined as the probabilities that the design objectives will violate specified requirements constraints. Control system parameters are found which minimize the sensitivity vector in a Pareto-optimal sense, using constrained minimization algorithms. Example results are shown for lateral stability augmentation system (SAS) design for three Shuttle flight conditions.

Schy, A. A.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Design of minimax output feedback controller for system with parameter uncertainty

The problem of controlling a time-invariant system with parameter uncertainty is considered with incomplete state feedback. The controller is designed by minimaximizing a quadratic performance criterion and a sensitivity (or loss) criterion, involving the state of the system, the control, and the uncertainty vector. The resulting optimal controller is linear and optimal feedback gain matrix must satisfy a set of nonlinear algebraic equations. some algorithms for algebraic minimax problems are presented.

Basuthakur, S.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Towards a Probabilistic Criterion for Preliminary Shell Design

Thin-walled stiffened or unstiffened, metallic or composite shells are widely used structural elements in aeronautical and space applications. Buckling strength, which is a major concern in all these areas, is affected by the uncertainties in the definition of loads, material properties, geometric variables, engineering models and the accuracy of the analysis tools used in the design phase. The NASA design criteria monographs from the late sixties account for these design uncertainties by the use of a lump sum safety factor or the so-called "knockdown" factor gamma, which usually results in an overly conservative design. In the present paper a new, reliability based, probabilistic design procedure for buckling critical imperfect isotropic shells is proposed. It essentially consists of a stochastic approach based on a new, improved "knockdown" factor lambda(sub a) that is not as conservative as the traditional one. It is felt that by quantifying and understanding the "problem uncertainties" such as initial imperfections and their influence on the design variables, one can develop a better engineered, better designed and safer system.

Arbocz, Johann↗
NASA NTRS2011

Fission Power System Technology for NASA Exploration Missions

Under the NASA Exploration Technology Development Program, and in partnership with the Department of Energy (DOE), NASA is conducting a project to mature Fission Power System (FPS) technology. A primary project goal is to develop viable system options to support future NASA mission needs for nuclear power. The main FPS project objectives are as follows: 1) Develop FPS concepts that meet expected NASA mission power requirements at reasonable cost with added benefits over other options. 2) Establish a hardware-based technical foundation for FPS design concepts and reduce overall development risk. 3) Reduce the cost uncertainties for FPS and establish greater credibility for flight system cost estimates. 4) Generate the key products to allow NASA decisionmakers to consider FPS as a preferred option for flight development. In order to achieve these goals, the FPS project has two main thrusts: concept definition and risk reduction. Under concept definition, NASA and DOE are performing trade studies, defining requirements, developing analytical tools, and formulating system concepts. A typical FPS consists of the reactor, shield, power conversion, heat rejection, and power management and distribution (PMAD). Studies are performed to identify the desired design parameters for each subsystem that allow the system to meet the requirements with reasonable cost and development risk. Risk reduction provides the means to evaluate technologies in a laboratory test environment. Non-nuclear hardware prototypes are built and tested to verify performance expectations, gain operating experience, and resolve design uncertainties.

Mason, Lee↗
NASA NTRS2016

The GPM Combined Algorithm

In this paper, the operational Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission combined radar-radiometer algorithm is thoroughly described. The operational combined algorithm is designed to reduce uncertainties in GPM Core Observatory precipitation estimates by effectively integrating complementary information from the GPM Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) into an optimal, physically consistent precipitation product. Although similar in many respects to previously developed combined algorithms, the GPM combined algorithm has several unique features that are specifically designed to meet the GPM objectives of deriving, based on GPM Core Observatory information, accurate and physically consistent precipitation estimates from multiple spaceborne instruments, and ancillary environmental data from reanalyses. The algorithm features an optimal estimation framework based on a statistical formulation of the Gauss-Newton method, a parameterization for the nonuniform distribution of precipitation within the radar fields of view, a methodology to detect and account for multiple scattering in Ka-band DPR observations, and a statistical deconvolution technique that allows for an efficient sequential incorporation of radiometer information into DPR precipitation retrievals.

Grecu, Mircea↗
NASA NTRS1984

Reliability considerations for the total strain range version of strainrange partitioning

A proposed total strainrange version of strainrange partitioning (SRP) to enhance the manner in which SRP is applied to life prediction is considered with emphasis on how advanced reliability technology can be applied to perform risk analysis and to derive safety check expressions. Uncertainties existing in the design factors associated with life prediction of a component which experiences the combined effects of creep and fatigue can be identified. Examples illustrate how reliability analyses of such a component can be performed when all design factors in the SRP model are random variables reflecting these uncertainties. The Rackwitz-Fiessler and Wu algorithms are used and estimates of the safety index and the probablity of failure are demonstrated for a SRP problem. Methods of analysis of creep-fatigue data with emphasis on procedures for producing synoptic statistics are presented. An attempt to demonstrate the importance of the contribution of the uncertainties associated with small sample sizes (fatique data) to risk estimates is discussed. The procedure for deriving a safety check expression for possible use in a design criteria document is presented.

Wirsching, P. H.↗
DOE OSTI2025

AI Benchmark Democratization and Carpentry

Benchmarks are a cornerstone of modern machine learning, enabling reproducibility, comparison, and scientific progress. However, AI benchmarks are increasingly complex, requiring dynamic, AI-focused workflows. Rapid evolution in model architectures, scale, datasets, and deployment contexts makes evaluation a moving target. Large language models often memorize static benchmarks, causing a gap between benchmark results and real-world performance. Beyond traditional static benchmarks, continuous adaptive benchmarking frameworks are needed to align scientific assessment with deployment risks. This calls for skills and education in AI Benchmark Carpentry. From our experience with MLCommons, educational initiatives, and programs like the DOE's Trillion Parameter Consortium, key barriers include high resource demands, limited access to specialized hardware, lack of benchmark design expertise, and uncertainty in relating results to application domains. Current benchmarks often emphasize peak performance on top-tier hardware, offering limited guidance for diverse, real-world scenarios. Benchmarking must become dynamic, incorporating evolving models, updated data, and heterogeneous platforms while maintaining transparency, reproducibility, and interpretability. Democratization requires both technical innovation and systematic education across levels, building sustained expertise in benchmark design and use. Benchmarks should support application-relevant comparisons, enabling informed, context-sensitive decisions. Dynamic, inclusive benchmarking will ensure evaluation keeps pace with AI evolution and supports responsible, reproducible, and accessible AI deployment. Community efforts can provide a foundation for AI Benchmark Carpentry.

von Laszewski, Gregor [Virginia U.]↗
DOE OSTI2025

HFIR LEU High Density Silicide Dispersion Optimized Design Neutronics Analyses with PHAME

A high-fidelity neutronics model of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) with the low-enriched uranium (LEU) high-density silicide dispersion Optimized fuel design was updated and analyzed to generate reactor physics-based metrics to support follow-on thermal hydraulic and transient analyses of this design. The Python HFIR Analysis and Measurement Engine (PHAME) was also updated to enhance the automation capabilities of the framework developed and maintained to perform these reactor physics modeling and simulation efforts. The automated framework significantly increases the efficiency and reproducibility to design and thoroughly analyzes HFIR LEU core designs, changes, and uncertainties. Reactor physics metrics evaluated include but are not limited to fuel depletion, cycle length, fission rate density distributions, axial power peaking factors, kinetics data, reactivity coefficients, control element worths, heat deposition rates, and decay heat. These neutronics results provide essential input to follow-on steady state thermal, thermal hydraulic and reactor transient analyses, which are subject of other reports. The Optimized design operates at 95 MW to maintain HFIR’s current highly enriched uranium core performance level at 85 MW.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1988

Solar dynamic heat rejection technology. Task 2: Heat pipe radiator development

This report covers the design, fabrication, and test of several dual slot heat pipe engineering development units. The following dual-slot heat pipes were fabricated and tested: two 6-ft. aluminum heat pipes; a 20-ft. aluminum heat pipe; and a 20-ft. aluminum heat pipe with a four-leg evaporator section. The test results of all four test articles are presented and compared to the performance predicted by the design software. Test results from the four-leg article are incomplete. The methodology for fabricating stainless steel dual slot heat pipes was also studied by performing a tool life test with different single point cutters, and these results are also presented. Although the dual-slot heat pipe has demonstrated the potential to meet the requirements for a high capacity radiator system, uncertainties with the design still exist. The startup difficulties with the aluminum test articles must be solved, and a stainless steel/methanol heat pipe should be built and tested.

League, Mark↗
NASA NTRS1992

A generalized Lyapunov theory for robust root clustering of linear state space models with real parameter uncertainty

The problem of analyzing and designing controllers for linear systems subject to real parameter uncertainty is considered. An elegant, unified theory for robust eigenvalue placement is presented for a class of D-regions defined by algebraic inequalities by extending the nominal matrix root clustering theory of Gutman and Jury (1981) to linear uncertain time systems. The author presents explicit conditions for matrix root clustering for different D-regions and establishes the relationship between the eigenvalue migration range and the parameter range. The bounds are all obtained by one-shot computation in the matrix domain and do not need any frequency sweeping or parameter gridding. The method uses the generalized Lyapunov theory for getting the bounds.

Yedavalli, R. K.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Entry Guidance Design and Post-Flight Performance of the Mars 2020 Mission

Like its predecessor Mars Science Laboratory, the Mars 2020 mission successfully utilized a derivative of the Apollo Entry Terminal Point Controller guidance algorithm, whereby bank angle controls range flown along a trajectory. The flight performance of this algorithm in conjunction with a range-trigger for parachute deploy delivered the Perseverance rover to 1.7 km from the expected touchdown location within an ellipse of 7.5 x 5.2 km. This miss distance is largely attributed to atmospheric and aerodynamic modeling uncertainties between the design and as-flown trajectory. This algorithm for guided entry continues to provide a solid basis for Mars missions to improve upon.

Guidance↗
NASA NTRS1992

Aircraft ride quality controller design using new robust root clustering theory for linear uncertain systems

The aspect of controller design for improving the ride quality of aircraft in terms of damping ratio and natural frequency specifications on the short period dynamics is addressed. The controller is designed to be robust with respect to uncertainties in the real parameters of the control design model such as uncertainties in the dimensional stability derivatives, imperfections in actuator/sensor locations and possibly variations in flight conditions, etc. The design is based on a new robust root clustering theory developed by the author by extending the nominal root clustering theory of Gutman and Jury to perturbed matrices. The proposed methodology allows to get an explicit relationship between the parameters of the root clustering region and the uncertainty radius of the parameter space. The current literature available for robust stability becomes a special case of this unified theory. The bounds derived on the parameter perturbation for robust root clustering are then used in selecting the robust controller.

Yedavalli, R. K.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aeroheating Testing of the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry System with Surface Roughness

The Mars Sample Return Earth Entry System is a mission concept which would be the first NASA entry vehicle to utilize a woven thermal protection system as well as a 52.5 degree sphere-cone forebody geometry. Due to its novel design, historic experimental data sets were insufficient to validate the models used to characterize the expected aerothermal environment. A wind tunnel test campaign was funded by the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry System project in the NASA Langley 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel in order to obtain validation data. The December 2023 test entry of this campaign sought to obtain thermographic data to capture the impact of supersonic flow near woven surface roughness elements on convective heating augmentation, which was the largest remaining uncertainty in aerothermal design of the Earth Entry System. Data obtained were in family with prior results obtained on identical woven patterns without supersonic flow present at roughness elements, and it was found that this presence of supersonic flow did not have a noticeable effect on surface convective heating augmentation. Data were directly leveraged to support the NASA Mars Sample Return flight program and this data set is valuable for validating computational solutions on roughness-resolved grids.

Mars Sample Return↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aeroheating Testing of the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry System with Surface Roughness

The Mars Sample Return Earth Entry System is a mission concept which would be the first NASA entry vehicle to utilize a woven thermal protection system as well as a 52.5 degree sphere-cone forebody geometry. Due to its novel design, historic experimental data sets were insufficient to validate the models used to characterize the expected aerothermal environment. A wind tunnel test campaign was funded by the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry System project in the NASA Langley 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel in order to obtain validation data. The December 2023 test entry of this campaign sought to obtain thermographic data to capture the impact of supersonic flow near woven surface roughness elements on convective heating augmentation, which was the largest remaining uncertainty in aerothermal design of the Earth Entry System. Data obtained were in family with prior results obtained on identical woven patterns without supersonic flow present at roughness elements, and it was found that this presence of supersonic flow did not have a noticeable effect on surface convective heating augmentation. Data were directly leveraged to support the NASA Mars Sample Return flight program and this data set is valuable for validating computational solutions on roughness-resolved grids.

Mars Sample Return↗
NASA NTRS1985

Application of the Maximum Entropy/optimal Projection Control Design Approach for Large Space Structures

The underlying philosophy and motivation of the optimal projection/maximum entropy (OP/ME) stochastic modelling and reduced order control design method for high order systems with parameter uncertainties are discussed. The OP/ME design equations for reduced-order dynamic compensation including the effect of parameter uncertainties are reviewed and the application of the methodology to several large space structure (LSS) problems of representative complexity is illustrated.

Hyland, D. C.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Maximum Entropy/Optimal Projection (MEOP) control design synthesis: Optimal quantification of the major design tradeoffs

The underlying philosophy and motivation of the optimal projection/maximum entropy (OP/ME) stochastic modeling and reduced control design methodology for high order systems with parameter uncertainties are discussed. The OP/ME design equations for reduced-order dynamic compensation including the effect of parameter uncertainties are reviewed. The application of the methodology to several Large Space Structures (LSS) problems of representative complexity is illustrated.

Hyland, D. C.↗