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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2020

Rocky Mountain Disasters - Using NASA Earth Observations to Monitor Post-Fire Vegetation Recovery in the Colorado Front Range

Forest composition and structure in the Colorado Front Range has been altered by changing wildfire regimes. In particular, increased moderate- and high-severity fire significantly reduces forest cover following fire and often results in reduced seedling regeneration. Reduced tree canopy regrowth has chronic effects on upland ecological function and downstream water quality. This project partnered with the US Forest Service to estimate long-term vegetation recovery following four Colorado Front Range fires between 1996 and 2002—the Bobcat, Buffalo Creek, Hayman, and High Meadows fires—using Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM),Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI). The random forest algorithm was applied to produce maps of percent forest canopy cover for coniferous trees, deciduous trees, and all trees using time-series variables for pre- and post-fire as inputs. Similarly, maps of post-fire seedling regeneration were produced using random forest for coniferous trees,deciduous trees, and all trees using ecological drivers (soil, climate, fire, and topography) and pre-fire remote sensing predictors. Relationships between ecological drivers of post-fire vegetation trajectories were also evaluated. Additional analyses were conducted to (1) assess whether seedlings could be detected by Landsat or synthetic aperture radar (SAR) time-series analysis (2) assess pre-fire and post-fire Landsat variables against pre-fire and post-fire tree cover estimates to evaluate whether magnitude of forest change can be detected. Understanding variables that influence vegetative recovery, vegetation type conversion, and watershed characteristics will aid forest restoration efforts and water quality management.

Eric Jensen↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Challenger disaster was caused by an Apollo decision

NASA’s view of risk changed between early Apollo and the Space Shuttle. Risk was a known serious problem at the beginning of Apollo and the risk estimates were disturbingly high. To avoid public concern, risk analysis was discontinued. Risk analysis was avoided in Shuttle, leading to an unnecessarily risky design. The immediate cause of the Challenger tragedy was the mistaken decision to launch in cold weather. The fundamental cause was the high risk of the Shuttle design. Before Challenger, management thought and testified that the probability of an accident was 1 in 100,000. After Challenger, Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) found a roughly 1 in 100 chance of a Shuttle failure. The recent Orion design uses the safer Apollo approach, with a hardened capsule, launch abort escape, and the crew placed above the rocket tanks and engines. During Apollo it was estimated that, “assuming all elements from propulsion to rendezvous and life support were done as well or better than ever before, that 30 astronauts would be lost before 3 were returned safely to the Earth.” The chance of astronaut survival was only 10%. After the Apollo 1 tragedy, the awareness of risk led to an intense focus on achieving safety. “The only possible explanation for the astonishing success – no losses in space and on time – was that every participant at every level in every area far exceeded the norm of human capabilities.” During Apollo, a NASA PRA found that the chance of success was “less than 5 percent.” The NASA Administrator felt that “the numbers could do irreparable harm,” and discontinued numerical risk assessment.

Harry W Jones↗
NASA NTRS2020

Amazonia Disasters: Assessing Methods for Gold Mining-related Deforestation Detection in Amazonia Using NASA Earth Observations

Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) is responsible for a large fraction of deforestation and disturbance in Amazonia. These activities cause severe impacts on the rainforest ecosystem and socioeconomic state of the region. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the Asociación para la Conservación de la Cuenca Amazónica (ACCA), NASA SERVIR Science Coordination Office, and the Spatial Informatics Group to enhance ASGM-related deforestation detection methods. ACCA currently uses the Omnibus Q-test Change Point Detection Algorithm to identify changes in Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) monthly-aggregated temporal data from the Sentinel-1 satellite. The team determined the algorithm's accuracy by comparing a stratified random sample of change points against data from January 2019 to June 2020 identified using PlanetScope and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) Earth observations through Collect Earth Online. Our results indicated a users' accuracy of 55% for temporal change detection and producer's and user's accuracies of 99% and 97%, respectively, for detecting when change did not occur. Of the labeled change points, only 19% were due to mining activity. This research can help our partners have a more accurate understanding of where illegal gold mining may be taking place and inform decisions to remediate this activity.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗
NASA NTRS2020

Amazonia Disasters: Assessing Methods for Gold Mining-Related Deforestation Detection in Amazonia Using NASA Earth Observations

Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) is responsible for a large fraction of deforestation and disturbance in Amazonia. These activities cause severe impacts on the rainforest ecosystem and socioeconomic state of the region. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the Asociación para la Conservación de la Cuenca Amazónica (ACCA), NASA SERVIR Science Coordination Office, and the Spatial Informatics Group to enhance ASGM-related deforestation detection methods. ACCA currently uses the Omnibus Q-test Change Point Detection Algorithm to identify changes in Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) monthly-aggregated temporal data from the Sentinel-1 satellite. The team determined the algorithm's accuracy by comparing a stratified random sample of change points against data from January 2019 to June 2020 identified using PlanetScope and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) Earth observations through Collect Earth Online. Our results indicated a users' accuracy of 55% for temporal change detection and producer's and user's accuracies of 99% and 97%, respectively, for detecting when change did not occur. Of the labeled change points, only 19% were due to mining activity. This research can help our partners have a more accurate understanding of where illegal gold mining may be taking place and inform decisions to remediate this activity.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗