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At least 217 records · Page 12

Evaluating Twenty-Year Trends in Earth’s Energy Flows from Observations and Reanalyses

Satellite, reanalysis, and ocean in situ data are analyzed to evaluate regional, hemispheric and global mean trends in Earth’s energy fluxes during the first twenty years of the 21st century. Regional trends in net top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES), ECMWF Reanalysis 5 (ERA5), and a model similar to ERA5 with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice differ markedly, particularly over the Eastern Pacific Ocean, where CERES observes large positive trends. Hemispheric and global mean net TOA flux trends for the two reanalyses are smaller than CERES, and their climatological means are half those of CERES in the southern hemisphere (SH) and more than nine times larger in the northern hemisphere (NH). The regional trend pattern of the divergence of total atmospheric energy transport (TEDIV) over ocean determined using ERA5 analyzed fields is similar to that inferred from the difference between TOA and surface fluxes from ERA5 short-term forecasts. There is also agreement in the trend pattern over ocean for surface fluxes inferred as a residual between CERES net TOA flux and ERA5 analysis TEDIV and surface fluxes obtained directly from ERA5 forecasts. Robust trends are observed over the Gulf Stream associated with enhanced surface-to-atmosphere transfer of heat. Within the ocean, larger trends in ocean heating rate are found in the NH than the SH after 2005, but the magnitude of the trend varies greatly among datasets.

Norman G Loeb↗

Different Features of Cloud Macrophysical Changes Observed by MODIS, CALIPSO, and CloudSat for the 11-Year Period

From the A-train satellite mission, more than 11 years of Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO), and CloudSat satellite measurements are available from 2007 to 2017. In this study, we examine cloud macrophysical changes from a passive sensor, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and two active sensors, CALIPSO and CloudSat (CALCS). MODIS and CALCS capture common features of the cloud changes related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, i.e., increase of low clouds during La Niña and increase of mid and high clouds during El Niño over the eastern Pacific. However, optically thin cirrus clouds are well detected by CALCS while these are often missed by MODIS. As a result, MODIS shows much flatter distributions of cloud top heights. In addition, compared to MODIS, CALCS cloud volume anomalies are better correlated with relative humidity anomalies. The differences between MODIS and CALCS appear in low cloud variations. Particularly, fluctuations in MODIS low cloud anomalies are larger than CALCS, and MODIS low cloud anomalies are anticorrelated with mid/high cloud anomalies. This is because of the limitation in detecting underlying clouds by MODIS passive sensor. Also, the layer thickness of MODIS mid/high clouds is thinner than that from CALCS, less affecting cloud amounts at 0-3 km altitude.

Cloud↗

Turbulent Heat Flux, Downward Longwave Radiation, and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Associated with Wintertime Barents–Kara Sea Extreme Sea Ice Loss Events

We investigate wintertime extreme sea ice loss events on synoptic to subseasonal time scales over the Barents–Kara Sea, where the largest sea ice variability is located. Consistent with previous studies, extreme sea ice loss events are associated with moisture intrusions over the Barents–Kara Sea, which are driven by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In addition to the role of downward longwave radiation associated with moisture intrusions, which is emphasized by previous studies, our analysis shows that strong turbulent heat fluxes are associated with extreme sea ice melting events, with both turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes contributing, although turbulent sensible heat fluxes dominate. Our analysis also shows that these events are connected to tropical convective anomalies. A dipole pattern of convective anomalies with enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent and suppressed convection over the central to eastern Pacific is consistently detected about 6–10 days prior to extreme sea ice loss events. This pattern is associated with either the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) or El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Composites show that extreme sea ice loss events are connected to tropical convection via Rossby wave propagation in the midlatitudes. However, tropical convective anomalies alone are not sufficient to trigger extreme sea ice loss events, suggesting that extratropical variability likely modulates the connection between tropical convection and extreme sea ice loss events.

Arctic↗

Decadal Changes in the Antarctic Sea Ice Response to the Changing ENSO in the Last Four Decades

Variation of the sea ice fraction (SIF) over the Ross/Amundsen/Bellingshausen Sea (RAB) is investigated focusing on the decadal difference in time-lagged response to ENSO between the late 20th century (1980-2000, L20) and the early 21st century (2001-2021, E21). Moving correlation of the ENSO index against the SIF and sea surface temperature (SST), respectively, over the RAB region indicates that they are more strongly linked in the L20 than in the E21, with a time lag of up to two seasons. Time-lagged regressions onto the mature phase of El Niño reveal that the SIF decrease and SST increase over the RAB is relatively weaker in the E21 and most pronounced at a shorter time-lag of 0-4 months. In contrast, the SIF melt in the L20 continues to grow and reaches its peak at approximately two season lag (5-7 month). Near-surface wind, upper-level circulation and geopotential height, and wave activity in response to the ENSO in the L20 explain that they create a zonally oriented system of high- and low-pressure areas with a two-season lag, enhancing the poleward meridional flow that plays a key role in sea ice melt in the Ross and Amundsen Sea during El Niño. However, in the E21, this pattern is no longer active at the same lag, and the circulation determines the region of maximum sea ice melt east of the pattern observed in the L20. This study suggests that stronger ENSO on average and higher frequency of eastern Pacific ENSO occurrence in the L20 are associated with this decadal change in the lagged response of the RAB SIF to ENSO.

Young-Kwon Lim↗

Evaluation of TAO Observation System on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO S2S Forecast System

Since the early 1990’s, the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) mooring array has been instrumental for observing Kelvin and Rossby wave propagation which is key for El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. However, recent funding and programmatical issues have highlighted the need to rigorously assess the impact of the TAO observing system on ENSO predictions. Therefore, we evaluate the TAO using data assimilation observation denial experiments (also known as Observing System Evaluation or OSE experiments). This presentation will evaluate the TAO observing impact on both reanalyses and prediction of the big 2015 El Nino. We have completed reanalyses for July 2014-Dec 2015 for both the CONTROL experiment (that assimilates all available data) and the NOTAO experiment (that is identical to the CONTROL but withholds all TAO observations) using the best available NASA GEOS-S2S V3 seasonal prediction system. Validation of these reanalyses shows that TAO assimilation generally improves comparisons of temperature and salinity versus gridded in situ observations. Temperature is universally improved above the thermocline near the equator, but the biggest improvement is found in the eastern Pacific, just below the thermocline, where the variation of the thermocline defines ENSO events. In addition, a surprising result is that even with relatively few observations, salinity is improved throughout the equatorial region except near 120oW near the surface. ENSO forecasts were performed that were initialized from these CONTROL and NOTAO reanalyses. For the 9-month forecasts which were initialized in January, July, and October 2015, the NINO3.4 SST shows that the CONTROL forecasts are warmer and closer to observations than the NOTAO forecasts. We will show that upwelling and shoaling of the mixed layer amplifies the ENSO signal due to TAO assimilation. Prior to (after) April 2015, this upwelling is caused by relatively stronger Rossby (Kelvin) waves in the CONTROL than in the NOTAO experiments.

E. Hackert↗

Explainable deep learning for insights in El Niño and river flows

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a semi-periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences interannual variability in regional hydrology across the world through long-range dependence or teleconnections. Recent research has demonstrated the value of Deep Learning (DL) methods for improving ENSO prediction as well as Complex Networks (CN) for understanding teleconnections. However, gaps in predictive understanding of ENSO-driven river flows include the black box nature of DL, the use of simple ENSO indices to describe a complex phenomenon and translating DL-based ENSO predictions to river flow predictions. Here we show that eXplainable DL (XDL) methods, based on saliency maps, can extract interpretable predictive information contained in global SST and discover SST information regions and dependence structures relevant for river flows which, in tandem with climate network constructions, enable improved predictive understanding. Our results reveal additional information content in global SST beyond ENSO indices, develop understanding of how SSTs influence river flows, and generate improved river flow prediction, including uncertainty estimation. Observations, reanalysis data, and earth system model simulations are used to demonstrate the value of the XDL-CN based methods for future interannual and decadal scale climate projections.

SST↗

Assessing the Variability of Radiation, Water and Energy in the Deep Tropics Over the Last 3 Decades

Global surface energy closure and its variability depends heavily upon the surface radiative energy budget in the deep tropics. A key process observed is the change in convection regimes from disorganized convection to organized deep convection. During these periods an imbalance is observed between energy and water fluxes in terms of energy closure in some atmospheric reanalysis systems, implying that processes are not simulated well. A recent paper by Hsaio et al (2023, pre-published version) found that the transition process has wind shear and longwave cloud radiative feedback signatures. In this presentation, we assess the surface radiative budget in the deep tropics by comparing multiple data products (GEWEX SRB Rel4IP, CERES Ed4.1, ISSCP FH, etc.) and describing the variability across the deep tropics for the period from 1988 to near present. We assess this variability of the radiative flux anomalies (including the net TOA, surface and the atmospheric divergence fluxes) against water vapor divergence, cloud properties (include ISCCP “Weather States, Tselioudis et al. 2021) and larger scale wind shear. We include further analysis contrasting 6 key tropical oceanic regions (Indian Ocean east and west, tropical western, central and eastern Pacific Ocean, and Tropical Atlantic Ocean) and the sensitivity of the fluxes as a function of fluctuations in cloud types in response to various larger scale atmospheric processes (e.g. El Niño, Indian Ocean Dipole). These are contrasted against the modeled radiative fluxes from ERA-5 and MERRA-2. Ocean buoy measurements of radiative fluxes are utilized to help assess data radiative flux uncertainty over the nearly 40 year period. In general, the variability for overlap periods of these various data products agrees well, but there are significant differences in the net fluxes that vary according to the rendering of surface, atmospheric, aerosol and cloud properties. We conclude with recommendations for continuing work.

Radiation budget↗

Exploring Radiation, Water and Energy Closure in Key Deep Tropical Regions Over the Last 3 Decades

The closure of global energy and water budgets at various time scales depends heavily upon the on the processes of water and energy exchange in the deep tropics. A key process observed is the change in convection regimes from disorganized convection to organized deep convection. During these periods an imbalance in key tropical regions is observed of water budget terms between observations and atmospheric reanalysis systems, implying that processes are not simulated well. For instance, periods of imbalance in the water budget may be at least partly attributed to precipitation estimates due to the transition between cloud and precipitation systems in which ice cloud affects microwave radar estimates (Lietmann-Niimi et al. 2024, submitted). A recent paper by Hsaio et al (2023, pre-published version) found that the transition process is characterized by wind shear and longwave cloud radiative feedback signatures as well. This is just one example how these processes also affect the radiative fluxes and thus the energy budget at the TOA. In this presentation, we assess the net radiative budget and components in the deep tropics by comparing multiple data products (GEWEX SRB Rel4IP, CERES EBAF/SYN1deg Ed4.2, ISSCP FH, etc.) and describing the temporal variability of energy balance terms across the deep tropics for the period from 1988 to near present in six key oceanic regions. These six key tropical oceanic regions are West Indian Ocean, the south Indian Ocean east, tropical western, central and eastern Pacific Ocean, and Tropical Atlantic Ocean. In these regions we assess the sensitivity of the fluxes as a function of fluctuations in cloud types in response to various larger scale atmospheric processes (e.g. El Niño, Indian Ocean Dipole). We assess this variability of the radiative flux anomalies (including the net TOA, surface and the atmospheric divergence fluxes) against water vapor divergence, cloud properties (include ISCCP “Weather States, Tselioudis et al. 2021) and larger scale wind shear to assess the uncertainties of energy closure in these regions. These are contrasted against the modeled radiative fluxes from ERA-5 and MERRA-2. Ocean buoy measurements of radiative fluxes are utilized to help assess data radiative flux uncertainty over the nearly 40 year period. In general, the variability for overlap periods of these various data products agrees well, but there are significant differences in the net fluxes that vary according to the rendering of surface, atmospheric, aerosol and cloud properties. These differences also affect closure terms and inferences on systematic uncertainties within the observational estimates. We conclude with recommendations for continuing work

Radiation budget↗

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Over the Past 30 Years: A Global and Dynamic Perspective

The hurricane season of 2005 was the busiest on record and Hurricane Katrina (2005) is believed to be the costliest hurricane in U. S. history. There are growing concerns regarding whether this increased tropical cyclone activity is a result of global warming, as suggested by Emanuel(2005) and Webster et al. (2005), or just a natural oscillation (Goldenberg et al. 2001). This study examines the changes in tropical cyclone intensity to see what were really responsible for the changes in tropical cyclone activity over the past 30 years. Since the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) warming also leads to the response of atmospheric circulation, which is not solely determined by the local SST warming, this study suggests that it is better to take the tropical cyclone activities in the North Atlantic (NA), western North Pacific (WNP) and eastern North Pacific (ENP) basins as a whole when searching for the influence of the global-scale SST warming on tropical cyclone intensity. Over the past 30 years, as the tropical SST increased by about 0.5 C, the linear trends indicate 6%, 16% and 15% increases in the overall average intensity and lifetime and the annual frequency. Our analysis shows that the increased annual destructiveness of tropical cyclones reported by Emanuel(2005) resulted mainly from the increases in the average lifetime and annual frequency in the NA basin and from the increases in the average intensity and lifetime in the WNP basin, while the annual destructiveness in the ENP basin generally decreased over the past 30 years. The changes in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones reported by Webster et a1 (2005) were due mainly to the fact that increasing tropical cyclones took the tracks that favor for the development of intense tropical cyclones in the NA and WNP basins over the past 30 years. The dynamic influence associated with the tropical SST warming can lead to the impact of global warming on tropical cyclone intensity that may be very different from our current assessments, which were mainly based on the thermodynamic theory of tropical cyclone intensity.

Wu, Liguang↗

A Comparison between the TOPEX/POSEIDON Data and a Global Ocean General Circulation Model during 1992-1993

The TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetric sea level observation during 1992-1993 was used to validate the simulation made by a global ocean general circulation model (OGCM) forced by the daily wind stress and heat flux derived from the National Meteorological Center operational analysis. The OGCM is a version of the modular ocean model with a horizontal resolution of 2 deg longitude and 1 deg latitude and 22 levels in the vertical. The model simulation is compared to the observation at spatial scales of the order of 500 km and larger. Only the temporal variations are examined. The variability is composed primarily of the annual cycle and intraseasonal fluctuations (periods shorter than 100 days). The basic features of the annual cycle are simulated well by the model. Major discrepancies are found in the eastern tropical Pacific, as well as the eastern North Pacific and most of the interior of the North Atlantic. The culprit is suspected to be the inadequate heat forcing and mixing parameterizations of the model. Significant intraseasonal variability is found in the central North Pacific and the Southern Ocean. The simulation is highly correlated with the observation at periods from 20 to 100 days. The spatial scales are larger than 1000 km in many places. These variabilities are apparently the barotropic response of the ocean to wind forcing. The results of the study provide a basis for future assimilation of the data into the OGCM for improved description of the large-scale ocean variabilities.

Chao, Yi↗

Dynamics of atmospheric teleconnections during the northern summer

The mechanisms of northern summertime teleconnections are investigated using a barotropic model. In a series of numerical experiments the atmospheric response over the eastern Pacific-North America to an idealized local divergence source corresponding to the northward displacement of the ITCZ in the eastern Pacific is studied. It is found that the response is much stronger in June than in May and is strongest when the forcing is located north of about 10 deg N. This can be explained in terms of the refractive properties of the climatological summertime subtropical jet stream over North America. In another series of experiments the global response as a function of the longitudinal location of the tropical forcing is examined. A wave train emanating from the subtropics of the western Pacific near the Philippines, arching across the Aleutians and the Gulf of Alaska, and terminating with a high anomaly over the continental United States appears over a wide longitudinal range of local forcing, suggesting the existence of a normal mode for the northern summertime climatological flow. The normal-mode concept is supported by further experiments using extratropical forcings as well as free-mode integrations.

Lau, K.-M.↗

Extreme Storms

Key Findings: 1. Human activities have contributed substantially to observed ocean-atmosphere variability in the Atlantic Ocean (medium confidence), and these changes have contributed to the observed upward trend in North Atlantic hurricane activity since the 1970s (medium confidence). 2. Both theory and numerical modeling simulations generally indicate an increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in a warmer world, and the models generally show an increase in the number of very intense TCs. For Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricanes and western North Pacific typhoons, increases are projected in precipitation rates (high confidence) and intensity (medium confidence). The frequency of the most intense of these storms is projected to increase in the Atlantic and western North Pacific (low confidence) and in the eastern North Pacific (medium confidence). 3. Tornado activity in the United States has become more variable, particularly over the 2000s, with a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes and an increase in the number of tornadoes on these days (medium confidence). Confidence in past trends for hail and severe thunderstorm winds, however, is low. Climate models consistently project environmental changes that would putatively support an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms (a category that combines tornadoes, hail, and winds), especially over regions that are currently prone to these hazards, but confidence in the details of this projected increase is low. 4. There has been a trend toward earlier snowmelt and a decrease in snowstorm frequency on the southern margins of climatologically snowy areas (medium confidence). Winter storm tracks have shifted northward since 1950 over the Northern Hemisphere (medium confidence). Projections of winter storm frequency and intensity over the United States vary from increasing to decreasing depending on region, but model agreement is poor and confidence is low. Potential linkages between the frequency and intensity of severe winter storms in the United States and accelerated warming in the Arctic have been postulated, but they are complex, and, to some extent, contested, and confidence in the connection is currently low. 5. The frequency and severity of landfalling "atmospheric rivers" on the U.S. West Coast (narrow streams of moisture that account for 30 percent to 40 percent of the typical snowpack and annual precipitation in the region and are associated with severe flooding events) will increase as a result of increasing evaporation and resulting higher atmospheric water vapor that occurs with increasing temperature. (Medium confidence)

Kossin, J. P.↗

The structure and evolution of seasonal wind anomalies over the near-equatorial eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans

The longitude-height-time structure and evolution of near-equatorial wind variability over the eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans are studied using data obtained from a network of eight radiosonde stations extending from southern India to the central Pacific Ocean. The seasonal zonal wind anomalies observed at the cross section beween Trivandrum and Majuro stations are analyzed using an empirical orthogonal function. The Walker Circulation fluctuations are described in terms of standing oscillations in the longitude-height plane, and it is determined that Southern Oscillation propagation anomaly best represents the wind fluctuations. A complex empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) analysis and an El Nino compositing methodology are applied to the seasonal zonal wind anomalies. It is determined that the composite El Nino anomalies correspond to the spatial structure and temporal evolution of anomalies implied by the CEOF analysis.

Gutzler, David S.↗

Application of satellite data to tropic/subtropic moisture coupling

The objective is to develop analysis tools for use of satellite data to interpret synoptic-scale systems in data-void regions. Interim goals are to: (1) quantify the synoptic information content of satellite data; and (2) utilize these data in the diagnosis of moisture bursts in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Researchers developed and implemented a statistical procedure for using TIROS N microwave data to infer infrared channel data for overcast conditions; they used the same procedure for deducing full TIROS N channel radiance profiles from NOAA 5 VTPR channel data over regions where the TIROS N data are missing. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of twice-daily channel radiance fields over the tropical eastern Pacific was completed. The vertically oriented eigenfunctions were interpreted in terms of typical meteorological events. The horizontal distribution of the eigenfunction amplitudes relates these meteorological signals to moisture bursts. A pair of moisture burst climatologies is complete: one of four years using infrared imagery (including the highly anomalous 1982 to 83 cold season); the other implementing 850 to 200 mb wind analyses in conjunction with GOES imagery. A number of different evaluations of the synoptic evolution of moisture fields (enhanced infrared imagery, moisture channel data, FGGE humidity analysis, and in situ station and sounding observations) are compared. All have limitations; all can be utilized together; all together are still less than adequate in the tropical Pacific.

Mcguirk, J. P.↗

Modeling and Observations of the Response of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone to ENSO

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability on interannual time scales. ENSO appears to extend its influence into the chemical composition of the tropical troposphere, Recent results have revealed an ENSO induced wave-1 anomaly in observed tropical tropospheric column ozone, This results in a dipole over the western and eastern tropical Pacific, whereby differencing the two regions produces an ozone anomaly with an extremely high correlation to the Nino 3.4 Index. We have successfully reproduced this result using the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 25 years, An examination of the modeled ozone field reveals the vertical contributions of tropospheric ozone to the column over the western and eastern Pacific region, We will show targeted comparisons with SHADOZ ozonesondes over these regions to provide insight into the vertical structure. Also, comparisons with NASA's Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES) instruments and other appropriate data sets will be shown. In addition, the water vapor response to ENSO will be compared to help illuminate its role relative to dynamics in impacting ozone concentrations. These results indicate that the tropospheric ozone response to ENSO is potentially a very useful chemistry-climate diagnostic and should be considered in future modeling assessments.

Oman, L. D.↗

The Response of Tropospheric Ozone to ENSO in Observations and a Chemistry-Climate Simulation

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability on interannual time scales. ENSO appears to extend its influence into the chemical composition of the tropical troposphere. Recent results have revealed an ENSO induced wave-l anomaly in observed tropical tropospheric column ozone. This results in a dipole over the western and eastern tropical Pacific, whereby differencing the two regions produces an ozone anomaly with an extremely high correlation to the Nino 3.4 Index. We have successfully reproduced this result using the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 25 years. An examination of the modeled ozone field reveals the vertical contributions of tropospheric ozone to the column over the western and eastern Pacific region. We will show targeted comparisons with observations from NASA's Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), and the Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES) to provide insight into the vertical structure of ozone changes. The tropospheric ozone response to ENSO could be a useful chemistry-climate model evaluation tool and should be considered in future modeling assessments.

Oman, L. D.↗

The Response of Lower Atmospheric Ozone to ENSO in Aura Measurements and a Chemistry-Climate Simulation

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability on interannual time scales. ENSO appears to extend its influence into the chemical composition of the tropical troposphere. Recent work has revealed an ENSO-induced wave-1 anomaly in observed tropical tropospheric column ozone. This results in a dipole over the western and eastern tropical Pacific, whereby differencing the two regions produces an ozone anomaly with an extremely high correlation to the Nino 3.4 Index. We have successfully reproduced this feature using the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 25 years. An examination of the modeled ozone field reveals the vertical contributions of tropospheric ozone to the column over the western and eastern Pacific region. We will show composition sensitivity in observations from NASA s Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES) and a simulation to provide insight into the vertical structure of these ENSO-induced ozone changes. The ozone changes due to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the extra-polar upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in MLS measurements will also be discussed.

Oman, L. D.↗