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DOE OSTI2024

Fire–precipitation interactions amplify the quasi-biennial variability in fires over southern Mexico and Central America

Fires have great ecological, social, and economic impact. However, fire prediction and management remain challenges due to a limited understanding of their roles in the Earth system. Fires over southern Mexico and Central America (SMCA) are a good example of this, greatly impacting local air quality and regional climate. Here we report that the spring peak (April–May) of fire activities in this region has a distinct quasi-biennial signal based on multiple satellite datasets measuring different fire characteristics. The variability is initially driven by quasi-biennial variations in precipitation. Composite analysis indicates that strong fire years correspond to suppressed ascending motion and weakened precipitation over the SMCA. The anomalous precipitation over the SMCA is further found to be mostly related to the East Pacific–North Pacific (EP-NP) pattern 2 months prior to the fire season. The positive phase of the EP-NP leads to enhanced precipitation over the eastern US but suppressed precipitation over the SMCA, similar to the spatial pattern of precipitation differences between strong and weak fire years. Meanwhile, the quasi-biennial signals in precipitation and fires appear to be amplified by their interactions through a positive feedback loop at short timescales. Model simulations show that in strong fire years, more aerosol particles are released and transported downstream over the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern US, where suspended light-absorbing aerosols warm the atmosphere and cause the ascending motion of the air aloft. Subsequently, a compensating downward motion is formed over the region of the fire source and ultimately suppresses precipitation and intensifies fires. Statistical analysis shows the different durations of the two-way interaction, where the fire suppression effect of precipitation lasts for more than 20 d, while fire leads to a decrease in precipitation at shorter timescales (3–5 d). This study demonstrates the importance of fire–climate interactions in shaping the fire activities on an interannual scale and highlights how precipitation–fire interactions at short timescales contribute to the interannual variability in both fire and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Summary Paper: An Initial Heliostat Supply Chain Analysis

This paper summarizes the prior analysis, key findings, and recommendations from the published report titled “Initial Heliostat Supply Chain Analysis” [1]. Globally, the growing demand for concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies, primarily for electricity generation plants has been met with supply chains primarily composed of plentiful commodity materials such as steel, aluminum, and glass. Often the commodity materials can be sourced in the domestic market where power plant will be constructed. Although specialty components are required for CSP solar fields —including mirror panels used for heliostat applications—these specialty components constitute about 30-50% of total system installed costs [2]. Only a few companies and countries, including the United States, have developed the capacity to supply such specialty components. The U.S. heliostat supply chain at present is comprised of few companies (e.g., CSP developers), component suppliers, and is its infancy. By 2035, with current and aggressive solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity expansions, there is the potential for 500,000–1,500,000 direct and indirect jobs in the areas of manufacturing, installation and development, and operations and maintenance (O&M) [3]. Utilizing the CSP capacity estimations the recent NREL report [4], the construction of 39 gigawatts (GW) of CSP (assuming mainly power tower) in the U.S. could lead to approximately 195,000 manufacturing, construction, and O&M jobs. This does not include the longer-term jobs and economic impact (e.g., taxes from plant operations staff) from operating the plants once constructed. It is recommended that further CSP component and system supply chain analysis and modelling be undertaken.

Kurup, Parthiv (ORCID:0000000217356703)↗

DOE OSTI2020

MN Solar Pathways: Solar Deployment Strategies-Modeling and Case Studies

As part of the Minnesota Solar Pathways project, funded in part by the Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technologies Office, Clean Power Research (CPR) developed a Solar Deployment Strategies modeling tool to calculate the economic impacts and market incentives created by different solar portfolios and rate structures. CPR developed the tool using Minnesota-specific data and assumptions. The case studies described in this report provide insight into possible pathways toward the state goal of 10% solar, but the emphasis of the report is the demonstration of the tool in use cases that can be expanded and modified in future years as needs change.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Strategic Analysis Support WBS 4.1.1.30

Strategic Analysis Support. The objective of the NREL strategic support project is to provide sound, unbiased, and consistent analyses to inform the strategic direction of the DOE BETO office. This project addresses key technological questions, provides critical data needed to inform strategy, and highlights barriers, gaps and data needs in support of the DOE BETO's mission to improve the affordability of bio-based fuels and products. This task employs various quantitative (techno-economic analysis, TEA) and qualitative (gap analysis) approaches to allow for direct comparisons of biomass conversion technologies across a wide slate of processing platforms and products. Furthermore, this project develops and utilizes novel analyses beyond traditional biorefinery focused TEA/LCAs to identify both technical (e.g., in sustainable design) and non-technical (e.g., in value proposition) barriers, as well as to outline mitigation strategies and R&D needs for emerging technologies. Additionally, the project is tasked with evaluating drivers that support the growing bio-economy, which is achieved by the development and public release of tools to advance the understanding and facilitate comparisons of socio-economic impacts along the supply chain. Critical to the success of this project is the development of defensible methodologies, analyses, and tools that are publicly available to support stakeholders and bioeconomy growth. To develop such high-quality analyses, the biggest challenge to this project, as with most analysis focused projects, is the availability and reliability of the underlying data. Therefore, the project team works extensively with key stakeholders (e.g., policy makers, bioenergy technology developers, and investors) in developing and reviewing the results of these analyses to overcome this challenge. Any remaining uncertainties associated with the analysis efforts are clearly defined and quantified.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

EVI-Equity

EVI-Equity (Electric Vehicle Infrastructure for Equity) is a $200k project, started around in June of 2021, with a funding from the Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO). The motivation was to create a new analytical capability that can enable us to quantify and investigate equitable access to and distribution of existing and future deployment of PEVs and EVSEs in neighborhoods, cities, states, and the nation. EVI-Equity is a bottom-up equity-focused analysis model, built upon individual (synthetic) households, aggregated by census block groups. It consists of four core components - community engagement, environmental profiling, household expenditures, and network design. Although there are some commonalities, EVI-Equity is not a vehicle choice model, charging simulation model, or transportation demand model. EVI-Equity is rather a cross-cutting analysis tool, dedicated for evaluating equitable EV adoption and EVSE deployment, encompassing and bridging a wide variety of related tools, models, and frameworks. Some of the results indicate the importance of used vehicle market for low-income households. The presentation also highlights similarities and variations as to preferred public charging locations. For example, regardless of household income, retail spots are the most preferred location for public charging, followed by curbside/street. However, the results also imply that the importance of workplace charging may vary with income - the lower the income, the less important. Environmental profiling results, with an example of ground-level ozone in Atlanta area, show that the contrast between the haves and the have nots of plug-in electric vehicles depends on location. The assessment of household expenditures illustrates the economic impact of home charging access on an individual household level - the lower the income, the greater the impact is. Lastly, Denver metro area and the state of South Dakota are used to showcase the impact of different network design of charging infrastructure, as well as alternative (vs. baseline/existing) electric vehicle adoption pattern.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Wash Penalty Factors: Insight into the Effects of Water Wash Down of Building Materials for Radionuclide/Nuclear (Rn) Decontamination - 20153

The release of radiological material to the urban environment can have a devastating socio-economic impact. In an urban release scenario, areas around the dispersal epicenter and any areas contaminated via atmospheric deposition may require extensive decontamination. Most recently, our group reported the decontamination efficacy of pressurized water washing of common porous building materials, and compared the penetration depth of the contaminations before and after exposure to pressurized tap water. Here, we continue evaluation of the decontamination efficacy of wash solutions based on potassium (K{sup +}) salt for cesium (Cs), strontium (Sr), and europium (Eu) contaminations on common building surfaces. The surfaces included: the cement used in concrete, the aggregate used in concrete, intact concrete, roadway asphalt, asphalt shingles, and latex paint. We deposited solutions of {sup 137}Cs, {sup 85}Sr, and {sup 152}Eu onto numerous common building materials and exposed these materials to a static bath or low-pressure flow of tap water, 0.1 M potassium chloride (KCl), and 0.5 M KCl. The decontamination efficacy and the depth profile for residual contamination were measured to determine the conditions under which applying a wash solution has benefit compared to physically removing the surface material. To aid in these analyses, we introduced a 'wash penalty factor' to quantify the degree to which contamination migrated into the bulk material by the action of the wash method. On asphalt, 70-80% of the radionuclides were found to be within 0.02 mm of the surface. Cs{sup +} bonded to negative charge sites on the surface of the mineral aggregate (used in concrete) so decontamination was improved by ion exchange with K{sup +}. Sr{sup 2+} is soluble and removed by water, while not bonding to aggregate or demonstrating solubility in the liquid asphalt. Eu{sup 3+} is precipitated and not removed in gentle wash but displays mobility within the pore space that suggests its presence as a colloid. Concrete is more porous than asphalt, and 80% of the radionuclides were within 0.2 mm of the surface for {sup 137}Cs and {sup 152}Eu and 50- 80% for {sup 85}Sr. On concrete, Cs{sup +} bonds similarly to asphalt. Sr{sup 2+} bonds to the cement or precipitates from the alkaline pore water. Eu{sup 3+} sorbs to the cement and then precipitates. In brick, the results for Cs{sup +} and Sr{sup 2+} suggested that diffusion of ions from deeper in the coupon was important. Eu{sup 3+} is removed poorly due to precipitation. We will explain and report example wash penalty factors that vary from 0 to > 1 for the various methods and the implications for deciding when to implement wash down methods. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Recovery Tool)

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Restoration Tool): Each year hurricanes and tropical storms in the United States damage critical infrastructure assets, disrupt the services they provide, and cause millions to billions of dollars in economic impacts due to extended recovery times. The Storm-DEPART tool and analytical output enable more impactful data-driven decision-making capabilities and strengthen national-level disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. Storm-DEPART, built through multi-month collaboration between Entergy and INL, combines Entergy’s critical infrastructure inventory data with weather forecasts to predict damages to Electric utility’s assets due to natural disasters and the estimated recovery support needed, including time, materials, and resource allocation. In the event of an approaching hurricane, this innovative solution can assess potential damage to power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets from wind bands, storm surge, and flooding. With more effective predictions, Entergy can more efficiently allocate resources to mitigate impacts and optimize recovery for customers. Storm-DEPART also allows Electric utilities the ability to apply a planning scenario and model expected damage to better inform infrastructure restoration needs leading to enhance system resiliency. The technology is fully transferrable to other electric utilities with the same damage estimating challenges. The INL team is working on the evolution of Storm-DEPART to include ice event damage prediction framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Recovery Tool)

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimization and Experimental Validation of Annular Finned PCM-HX for a Domestic Hot Water Heater Application

The load profile for domestic water heating is time-dependent and can result in high energy demand during peak operating times. Shifting this peak load can have significant environmental and economic impacts. Phase change material (PCM)-based thermal energy storage (TES) is a potentially useful technology for peak load shifting in domestic hot water (DHW) applications thanks to its high latent heat and energy density. In this study, an annular finned-tube PCM-HX design concept was optimized for a load-shifting TES unit to meet the Department of Energy standard for a medium-usage DHW heater using a resistance-capacitance model (RCM) integrated with a Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm. The optimized design comprised 70 identical annular finned-tube PCM-HX units connected in parallel and utilizing RT62HC as the PCM. A single PCM-HX unit was prototyped and tested in a vertically oriented setup with upward heat transfer fluid (HTF) flow. The hot water supply time was defined based on a cutoff temperature of 51.7°C. The as-designed mass flow rate (1.5 g/s) was tested to assess the performance of the prototyped PCM-HX unit for RCM validation. For the experimental investigation, RTD sensor bundles measured HTF temperature at the PCM-HX inlet and outlet, and a Coriolis flow meter accurately measured the HTF mass flow rate. The simulated discharging power underpredicted the experimental result by about 12%, and the simulated hot water supply time underpredicted the experimental result by approximately 13% for the as-designed mass flow rate (1.5 g/s). The average deviation of the hot water supply temperature between the experimental and RCM results during the complete PCM solidification process was 1.3 K for the as-designed mass flow rate. The overall good agreement between the experimental and RCM results provides confidence that computationally efficient models such as RCM can be utilized for design optimization of PCM-HXs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Shallow Geothermal Resources for Cooling Applications at the University of Hawai'i

Drilling activities account for 30% to 57% of the cost to develop and install a geothermal plant. Therefore, an accurate representation of the cost to drill a well is paramount in techno-economic analysis to determine the feasibility of a geothermal power project. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) endeavored to revise the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) GeoVision baseline drilling cost curves due to extensive improvement in drilling rates at the Utah Frontier Observatory Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) demonstration site. That effort did not culminate in the recommendation of new curves because the actual project costs did not match the reported performance improvements and were at or above the GeoVision baseline. The need for another iteration of this analysis has arisen from industry record drilling performance reported by recent commercial field-scale and demonstration projects, including Fervo Energy's Cape Station, the Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32 demonstration and the Geysers Power Company's GDC-36 demonstration. Therefore, in this work, we have estimated the resulting industry average rate of penetration (ROP) and bit life and applied these parameters as inputs to the Well Cost Simplified model used in the GeoVision analysis. The resulting revised cost curves show a significant decline from the GeoVision baseline. For vertical wells, the magnitude of cost decline ranges between 12% and 24% while for deviated wells, cost reductions between 18% and 26% are estimated. The revised cost curves are in good agreement with actual cost data and therefore, quantify the economic impact of the utilization of (and advances in) polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) bit technology and the application of physics-based methodologies that optimize mechanical specific energy.

building cooling↗

DOE OSTI2025

2025 Geothermal Drilling Cost Curves Update: Preprint

Drilling activities account for 30% to 57% of the cost to develop and install a geothermal plant. Therefore, an accurate representation of the cost to drill a well is paramount in techno-economic analysis to determine the feasibility of a geothermal power project. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) endeavored to revise the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) GeoVision baseline drilling cost curves due to extensive improvement in drilling rates at the Utah Frontier Observatory Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) demonstration site. That effort did not culminate in the recommendation of new curves because the actual project costs did not match the reported performance improvements and were at or above the GeoVision baseline. The need for another iteration of this analysis has arisen from industry record drilling performance reported by recent commercial field-scale and demonstration projects, including Fervo Energy’s Cape Station, the Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32 demonstration and the Geysers Power Company’s GDC-36 demonstration. Therefore, in this work, we have estimated the resulting industry average rate of penetration (ROP) and bit life and applied these parameters as inputs to the Well Cost Simplified model used in the GeoVision analysis. The resulting revised cost curves show a significant decline from the GeoVision baseline. For vertical wells, the magnitude of cost decline ranges between 12% and 24% while for deviated wells, cost reductions between 18% and 26% are estimated. The revised cost curves are in good agreement with actual cost data and therefore, quantify the economic impact of the utilization of (and advances in) polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) bit technology and the application of physics-based methodologies that optimize mechanical specific energy.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integrated hydrological, power system and economic modelling of climate impacts on electricity demand and cost

Impacts of climate-related water stress and temperature changes can cascade through energy systems, although models have yet to capture this compounding of effects. Here, we employ a coupled water–power–economy model to capture these important interactions in a study of the exceedance of water temperature thresholds for power generation in the western United States. We find that not all reductions in reserve electricity-generation capacity result in impacts, and that when they occur, intermittent interruptions in electricity supply at critical times of the day, week and year account for much of the economic impacts. Finally, we find that impacts may be in different locations from the original water stress. Herein, we estimate that the consumption loss can be up to 0.3% annually and the drivers identified in coupled modelling can increase the average cost of electricity by up to 3%. Integrated models will be needed to capture the cascading effects of climate change through climatic, water, energy and economic systems. Webster et al. now develop a coupled hydrologic–power-production–economic model to estimate water-stress impacts on electricity cost.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A probabilistic economic and environmental impact assessment of a cyanobacteria-based biorefinery

Microbial based biofuels represent a potential promising solution as an environmentally favorable transportation fuel. Cyanobacteria have many of the same advantages as microalgae: ability for rapid growth in otherwise non-arable regions, suitability for genetic engineering, and simple nutritional needs. Additionally, cyanobacteria can be engineered to secrete valuable co-products that can be harvested independent from the produced biomass. However, little work has been done to identify the processes and the economic and environmental impacts associated with a large-scale cyanobacteria-to-fuels facility. The present study is a concurrent techno-economic and life cycle assessment of a facility that generates fuels and methyl laurate, an oleochemical, from the cyanobacterial species Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803. Here, the biorefinery model includes all aspects of cultivation, separation of the secreted methyl laurate, biomass harvesting and fuel processing via hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of the dewatered biomass. The assessments leverage Monte Carlo analysis (MCA) to address uncertainty and variability inherent in the most significant input parameters, replacing them with probabilistic functions. For the facility configuration producing both fuels and the oleochemical co-product, the MCA average minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) is $\$2.47$ per decimeter (dm 3 ) or $\$9.34$ per gallon of gasoline equivalent (gge) with the corresponding average global warming potential determined to be 118 g CO 2 -eq-MJ -1 . The case producing only fuels results in an MCA average MFSP of $\$2.01$-(dm 3 ) -1 ($\$7.60$-gge -1 ) and an average environmental impact of 100 g CO 2 -eq-MJ -1 . These results are compared to static optimistic and conservative scenario analysis estimates, illustrating the over- and under-estimation of outcomes associated with non-stochastic methods. Suggested facility improvements include increases in pond productivity of both the biomass and methyl laurate oil production, as well as improvements to carbon utilization and bio-crude yield from HTL processing.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the Economic and Environmental Impacts of Land Scarcity Under Deep Uncertainty

Abstract Land scarcity is increasing over time, driven by complex multisector dynamics. The impacts of land scarcity on the economy and environment are multi‐faceted and regional, so any action to convert land will contain inherent tradeoffs. These impacts are complicated by the deeply uncertain evolution of the various sectors influencing land scarcity. A need therefore exists to provide multi‐metric and multi‐sector assessments that are robust to myriad uncertainties. Land conservation effectively limits the supply of productive land, while biofuel consumption increases the demand and competition for that land, and how these dynamics individually and jointly propagate to economic and environmental impacts is an important open question. To address this, we adopt the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) that has representations of various important systems including the climate, macroeconomic, energy, agriculture and land, and water resources systems. Various scenarios of increased land demand (from biofuels) and decreased land supply (from conservation) under various socioeconomic scenarios drawn from the SSPs were simulated using GCAM. We find that while biofuel consumption and land conservation reduce carbon emissions, this comes at the cost of higher food prices, reduced crop production, and increased water withdrawals. Additionally, some regions experience these tradeoffs more severely than others and are more heavily impacted from the same biofuel mandate or by an additional percent of protected land. These and other findings highlight the importance of multisector modeling frameworks that capture many cross‐sector linkages, and acknowledge the important uncertainties confronting the human‐Earth system when making any analysis of land scarcity impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Process intensified lauric acid self-ketonization and its economic and environmental impact on biolubricant base oil production

Intensified lauric acid self-ketonization and its impact on biolubricant base oil production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Economic and environmental impacts of a non-traditional combined heat and power system for a discrete manufacturing facility

Combined heat and power (CHP) is an electricity generation strategy that benefits all sides with a vested interest in the nations’ energy future. The technology allows for the efficient production of electricity and heat, which in turn reduces the carbon footprint and energy costs of a facility with significant heat and electricity loads. This paper investigates, through a detailed dynamic simulation, how a highly non-traditional CHP facility can leverage those forces to economically and environmentally benefit. Four system configurations of a composites manufacturing facility, one existing and three proposed systems, including two CHP configurations and one combined cooling, heating, and power (CCHP) configuration are evaluated from both economic and environmental views. The three proposed configurations are based on a 600 kW microturbine as the primary mover. The dynamic model showed great potential to capture the dynamics of the system configurations including the dynamics of temperature, oven exhaust fraction, electrical efficiency, and overall efficiency of the system configurations. All 3 CHP systems have a payback period between 8.03 and 8.33 years. The proposed system configurations reduce up to 22.7% of the CO 2 emission compared to the existing facility, supplying the demands in a cleaner manner.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Economic and Sustainability Impacts of Yield and Composition Variation in Bioenergy Crops: Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.)

Not Available

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Design of solvent-assisted plastics recycling: Integrated economics and environmental impacts analysis

In 2018, the United States generated over 35. 7 million tons of plastic waste, with only 8.4% being recycled and the other 91.6% incinerated or disposed of in a landfill. The continued growth of the polymer market has raised concerns over the end of life of plastics. Currently, the waste management system is faced with issues of inefficient sorting methods and low-efficiency recycling methods when it comes to plastics recycling. Mechanical recycling is the commonest recycling method but presents a lower-valued recycled material due to the material incompatibilities introduced via the inefficient sorting methods. Chemical recycling offers a promising alternative as it potentially allows for plastics to maintain their original properties. To that end, there is the need to investigate feasible chemical recycling methods to help mitigate the challenging problem posed by plastics at the end-of-life stage. This work proposes a conceptual solvent-assisted plastics recycling framework based on a superstructure optimization approach. This framework is evaluated using a representative case study to recover Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET). In this case study, it is found that polymer recovery is both economically and environmentally favorable when compared to traditional methods of disposal such as incineration.

Lehr, Austin L.↗