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DOE OSTI2025

The Observed and Projected Changes of Global Monsoons: Current Status and Future Perspectives

The global monsoon system, encompassing the Asian-Australian, African, and American monsoons, sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture. Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks, including floods and droughts. Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms. Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift: increased rainfall pre-1950s, followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s, driven by both internal variability (e.g., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and external forcings (greenhouse gases, aerosols), while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions. Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification, though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist. Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes, where thermodynamic effects (warming-induced moisture rise) uniformly boost heavy rainfall, while dynamical shifts (circulation changes) create spatial heterogeneity. Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification (SRM) further complicate predictions: tropical eruptions suppress monsoons, whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows, highlighting unresolved feedbacks. The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons. Critical challenges remain. Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution. The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings, along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming, demands deeper mechanistic insights. Additionally, SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation. Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks, refined climate models, and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers, ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.

climate extreme events↗

DOE OSTI2025

Microseismicity Modulation Due To Changes in Geothermal Production at San Emidio, Nevada, USA

Brief cessations of geothermal production can induce seismicity, a phenomenon that has drawn increasing attention in recent years. Such observations are rare, and the underlying mechanism requires careful analysis. In April 2022, a dense seismic and hydrologic monitoring system was deployed at the San Emidio geothermal field, Nevada, to accompany a planned power plant shutdown. Using the dense seismic array data, we detected and located ∼1,800 microseismic events (MSEs) and developed a high-resolution tomographic P-wave velocity model. We observed substantially increased microseismicity during shutdown. Most MSEs occurred on pre-existing normal faults, which are contained within extremely low-velocity zones that are likely damaged, fluid-filled, and hydraulically connected to nearby production wells. Hydrologic data show rapid fluid pressure increases of <60 kPa following the shutdown. We suggest that the cessation of production rapidly increased fluid pressures along pre-existing fault zones, activating critically stressed fault patches and fractures and producing microseismicity.

Guo, Hao [University of Wisconsin-Madison, WI (Uni↗

DOE OSTI2026

Detecting impurity-specific effects on structure and radiolytic hydrogen production in aluminum hydroxide

While radiolytic hydrogen (H 2 ) generation is an intrinsic property of aqueous and mineral radiolysis in nuclear waste systems, detection of the sub-ns events leading to H 2 generation is challenging. Interfacial processes involving key mineral phases in the sludge, e.g., gibbsite (α-Al(OH) 3 ), have been implicated, with impurities affecting the amount of H 2 generated. To understand why gibbsite synthesized from nitrate precursors produces less H 2 than gibbsite from chloride precursors, we paired 27 Al multiple quantum magic angle spinning (MQMAS) NMR spectroscopy to determine structural heterogeneity with transverse-field muon spin rotation (TF-μSR) to probe electron availability. MQMAS revealed greater structural disorder in the gibbsite synthesized with nitrate (NO 3 -gibbsite). Correspondingly, TF-μSR showed a larger diamagnetic fraction for NO 3 -gibbsite, indicating reduced persistence of μ + -electron bound states (muonium or other radicals) and thus fewer electrons available for reaction on the sub-ns timescale. This establishes a correlation between impurity-induced disorder and electron loss. The diamagnetic fraction serves as a signature for these sub-ns events, as it provides a key constraint for predictive models without currently resolving whether the electron is lost to direct chemical scavenging or trapping at lattice defects.

Graham, Trent R. [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Newly Measured 𝛽-Delayed Neutron Emitters around 78 Ni on Light Element Nucleosynthesis in the Neutrino Wind Following a Neutron Star Merger

Neutron emission probabilities and half-lives of 37 𝛽-delayed neutron emitters from 75 Ni to 92 Br were measured at the RIKEN Nishina Center in Japan, including 11 one-neutron and 13 two-neutron emission probabilities and six half-lives for the first time that supersede theoretical estimates. These nuclei lie in the path of the weak 𝑟 process occurring in neutrino-driven winds from the accretion disk formed after the merger of two neutron stars synthesizing elements in the 𝐴∼80 abundance peak. The presence of such elements dominates the accompanying kilonova emission over the first few days and have been identified in the AT2017gfo event, associated to the gravitational wave detection GW170817. Abundance calculations based on over 17,000 simulated trajectories describing the evolution of matter properties in the merger outflows show that the new data lead to an increase of 50%–70% in the abundance of Y, Zr, Nb, and Mo. This enhancement is large compared to the scatter of relative abundances observed in old very metal poor stars and thus is significant in the comparison with other possible astrophysical processes contributing to the light-element production. These results underline the importance of including experimental decay data for very neutron-rich 𝛽 -delayed neutron emitters into 𝑟 -process models.

59 ≤ A ≤ 89↗

DOE OSTI2026

Scintillation of liquid nitrogen

Liquid nitrogen is commonly used in cryogenic applications and is a promising medium for the direct immersion cooling of sensors used for nuclear and particle physics experiments. The scintillation properties of gaseous nitrogen are well-documented, but little is known about the scintillation of liquid nitrogen. If present, scintillation light from interactions of ambient radioactivity could produce backgrounds for rare event searches such as the direct detection of dark matter. Using a coincidence-tagged alpha decay, we demonstrate that liquid nitrogen exhibits measurable, albeit very faint, scintillation. Assuming the same scintillation wavelengths as gaseous nitrogen, we estimate a relative scintillation yield of $Y_{\liquidn}/Y^{\STP}_{\gasn} =$ \num[uncertainty-descriptors={stat,sys}]{0.0142(0.0005)(0.0030)} with respect to gaseous nitrogen at standard temperature and pressure. Considering the average scintillation yield from alpha decays in gaseous nitrogen, this implies a scintillation yield for alpha decays in liquid nitrogen of $Y_{\liquidn} = \qty[]{2.39(0.56)}{photons~per~MeV}$. To our knowledge this is the first measurement of scintillation in liquid nitrogen.

Pagani, Luca (ORCID:0000000234692581)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Chemical Imaging for In Situ Detection and Discrimination of Aquatic Toxins Targeting Voltage Gated Sodium Channels

Biologically derived neurotoxins from cyanobacteria and algae impact environmental resources in addition to being considered a potential biological threat to human and animal health. Activity based assays are essential to detecting and responding to toxic neurotoxin events either naturally occurring or deliberate. Two toxins of interest include saxitoxin and brevetoxin. These toxins bind to and alter the function of voltage-gated sodium channels (NaV channels) which are essential for generating cell membrane action potential. We report the development and refinement of a System for Analysis at Liquid Vacuum Interface (SALVI) to assess the functional activity of saxitoxin and brevetoxin. This approach utilizes a vacuum-compatible microfluidic reactor that permits analysis at the liquid vacuum interface of human derived cells with a neurotoxin of interest in a biologically relevant environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Diaspora: Resilience-enabling services for science from HPC to edge

Scientific applications of interest to DOE must increasingly engage distributed resources (e.g., instruments, remote computers, data stores, edge devices) and deliver more stringent levels of service (e.g., uninterrupted processing of experiment data streams). In such systems, state is distributed and components can fail in many ways, often silently, making application resilience a major concern. Addressing the resilience needs of such applications requires methods for gaining knowledge of resources and applications and for translating that knowledge into action. We are working on addressing these needs in the context of multi-messenger astronomy, where detecting and responding to unusual transient events in multiple cosmic messengers (gravitational wave, electromagnetic, high- energy particles) from different instruments leads to a federated learning problem.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Low Power, Radiation Resilient Synchronous Edge Processing for Remote Monitoring

Next-generation space remote sensing systems may be equipped with imaging arrays that sense data at a rate that outstrips the processing capability of any computing hardware that can operate within a satellite’s power budget. This project developed novel convolutional and recurrent neural networks to detect and estimate point-like events amid clutter, and investigated their efficient and accurate implementation on analog in-memory computing systems that are 10-1000× more energy-efficient than digital processors. This project leveraged two memory devices at different levels of technological maturity: a large-scale analog computing prototype using commercial SONOS charge-trap memory, and electrochemical memory (ECRAM) with intrinsic radiation hardness. We experimentally demonstrated end-to-end analog processing of our neural networks on SONOS and characterized the radiation response of both SONOS and ECRAM. We advanced the state-of-the-art in ECRAM precision and reliability, and developed co-design methods to enable accurate long-term operation of SONOS analog accelerators in space radiation environments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fermilab Italian Student Program (Final Report)

I participated to the 2019 Fermilab Italian Student Program under the supervision of Anadi Canepa and Lorenzo Uplegger. I worked with the Fermilab research group that is involved with the R&D of the CMS Outer Tracker. The Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) is a a general-purpose detector located at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), the world's most powerful particle accelerator. In the next years LHC will undergo the High-Luminosity LHC upgrade, which will bring its luminosity from 1 × 10 34 cm -2 s -1 to 1.5 × 10 34 cm -2 s -1 . This increase in luminosity will require an upgrade of CMS as well, in order to comply with the augmented rate of particles which will cross the detector. The CMS tracker is a detector, composed of various modules made of silicon pixel trackers and silicon strip trackers, whose aim is to reconstruct the trajectories of the particles produced by the collisions in LHC. The tracker is ideally divided in Inner Tracker and Outer Tracker. The HL-LHC upgrade put important challenges in the designing of the tracker. It will have to withstand the irradiation of a large fluence of particles, without suffering a too severe deterioration of its performance. In addition to this, in order to comply with the increased rate of events that CMS will need to detect, the tracker will be exploited for triggering at the fully hardware Level 1 Trigger, in contrast to the current tracker, whose data are only used for the software High-Level Trigger. This feature is managed by the "stub logic", which will be explained in chapter 2. During the months of August and September at Fermilab I carried out the data analysis of three test beam runs performed in the last two years on the 2S Outer Tracker Minimules. The 2S Minimoule consists of two silicon strip trackers placed one upon the other with the strips kept parallel.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

GRB 180128A: A second magnetar giant flare candidate from the Sculptor Galaxy

Magnetars are slowly rotating neutron stars that possess the strongest magnetic fields known in the cosmos (10 14 − 10 15 G). They display a range of transient high-energy electromagnetic activity. The brightest and most energetic of these events are the gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) known as magnetar giant flares (MGFs), with isotropic energies E iso ≈ 10 44 − 10 46 erg. Only seven MGF detections have been made to date: three unambiguous events occurred in our Galaxy and the Magellanic Clouds, and the other four MGF candidates are associated with nearby star-forming galaxies. As all seven identified MGFs are bright at Earth, additional weaker events likely remain unidentified in archival data. We conducted a search of the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor database for candidate extragalactic MGFs and, when possible, collected localization data from the Interplanetary Network (IPN) satellites. Our search yielded one convincing event, GRB 180128A. IPN localizes this burst within NGC 253, commonly known as the Sculptor Galaxy. The event is the second MGF in modern astronomy to be associated with this galaxy and the first time two bursts have been associated with a single galaxy outside our own. Here we detail the archival search criteria that uncovered this event and its spectral and temporal properties, which are consistent with expectations for a MGF. We also discuss the theoretical implications and finer burst structures resolved from various binning methods. Our analysis provides observational evidence of an eighth identified MGF.

Trigg, Aaron C. (ORCID:000900068598728X)↗

DOE OSTI2025

VERITAS and Multiwavelength Observations of the Blazar B3 2247+381 in Response to an IceCube Neutrino Alert

While the sources of the diffuse astrophysical neutrino flux detected by the IceCube Neutrino Observatory are still largely unknown, one of the promising methods to improve our understanding of them is investigating the potential temporal and spatial correlations between neutrino alerts and the electromagnetic radiation from blazars. We report on the multiwavelength target-of-opportunity observations of the blazar B3 2247+381, taken in response to an IceCube multiplet alert for a cluster of muon neutrino events compatible with the source location between 2022 May 20 and 2022 November 10. B3 2247+381 was not detected with VERITAS during this time period. The source was found to be in a low-flux state in the optical, ultraviolet, and gamma-ray bands for the time interval corresponding to the neutrino event, but was detected in the hard X-ray band with NuSTAR during this period. We find the multiwavelength spectral energy distribution is described well using a simple one-zone leptonic synchrotron self-Compton radiation model. Moreover, assuming the neutrinos originate from hadronic processes within the jet, the neutrino flux would be accompanied by a photon flux from the cascade emission, and the integrated photon flux required in such a case would significantly exceed the total multiwavelength fluxes and the VERITAS upper limits presented here. The lack of flaring activity observed with VERITAS, combined with the low multiwavelength flux levels, as well as the significance of the neutrino excess being at a 3σ level (uncorrected for trials), makes B3 2247+381 an unlikely source of the IceCube multiplet. We conclude that the neutrino excess is likely a background fluctuation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Low energy backgrounds and excess noise in a two-channel low-threshold calorimeter

Here, we describe observations of low energy excess (LEE) events, background events observed in all light dark matter direct detection calorimeters, and noise in a transition edge sensor based two-channel silicon athermal phonon detector with 375 meV baseline energy resolution. We measure two distinct LEE populations: “shared” multichannel events with a pulse shape consistent with substrate athermal phonon events and sub-eV events that couple nearly exclusively to a single channel with a significantly faster pulse shape. These “singles” are consistent with events occurring within the aluminum athermal phonon collection fins. Similarly, our measured detector noise is higher than the theoretical expectation. Measured noise can be split into an uncorrelated component, consistent with shot noise from small energy depositions within the athermal phonon sensor itself, and a correlated component, consistent with shot noise from energy depositions within the silicon substrate's phonon system.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ultrasonic Characterization of Lithium Ion Thermal Runaway Conditions for Real-time Ultrasonic Enabled BMS Integration

The demand for energy storage is growing, and lithium-ion batteries are a promising technology to meet this need due to their high power/energy density, high round-trip efficiency, rapid response time, and portability. However, recent catastrophic events caused by thermal runaway have slowed their adoption, highlighting the need for an early warning system for battery failure. In this work, ultrasound is used to detect physical changes in 950 mAh batteries by identifying material property changes independent of voltage and current. [Ultrasound signal features (e.g., time of flight, maximum frequency component) were extracted as the batteries were cycled and subjected to both constant current and constant voltage overcharge and were used to develop two metrics identifying failure: a warning to detect the start of overcharge and an emergency stop (E-stop) to immediately take the battery out of service. The identification method involved locating magnitude differences of several ultrasound features compared to baseline operation considering different currents and temperatures, and the warning/stopping metrics were consistent across all experiments. For an average overcharge time of 140 minutes, the average warning was issued 124 minutes before the failure and the average E-stop was triggered 94 minutes before failure. As a test of using ultrasound for early warning detection, a battery was forced into overcharge and returned to normal cycling conditions based on the previously determined warning metric. Both the voltage profile and the ultrasound measurements returned to their baseline behavior, indicating that ultrasonic detection can not only identify battery failure before a catastrophic event, but can also provide early enough warnings such that overcharges can be detected and corrected quickly enough so the battery does not need to be decommissioned.]

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Navigating Epistemic Uncertainty in the Management of Flash Droughts

Abstract: Flash droughts, characterized by their rapid onset, sharply contrast with the typically gradual development of traditional droughts. These events are triggered by a combination of low rainfall and high evaporation rates, driven by elevated temperatures, making them particularly challenging to predict and prepare for. As a relatively new concept, flash drought is not well understood, which introduces significant epistemic uncertainties regarding their nature and detection methods. This under-detection hinders planners' ability to effectively manage these events. Despite these uncertainties, flash droughts can have significant impacts, raising the question: how can decision-makers prepare for such events given the current knowledge gaps? To address this, we propose a methodological framework aimed at enhancing flash drought preparedness by guiding the selection of appropriate indicators based on their detection capabilities and the decision-makers' level of risk aversion. Our approach involves evaluating six different flash drought indicators and analyzing the level of agreement among them. Additionally, we consider the decision-makers' risk aversion, distinguishing between those who require consensus across all methods (risk-takers) and those who act based on a single method's indication (risk-averse). The insights gained from this study offer a pathway towards more informed decision-making processes regarding flash droughts, potentially mitigating their adverse effects through better preparedness and response strategies.

climate resilience↗

DOE OSTI2024

Perspectives and Challenges in Bolide Infrasound Processing and Interpretation: A Focused Review with Case Studies

Infrasound sensing plays a critical role in the detection and analysis of bolides, offering passive, cost-effective global monitoring capabilities. Key objectives include determining the timing, location, and yield of these events. Achieving these goals requires a robust approach to detect, analyze, and interpret rapidly moving elevated sources such as bolides (also re-entry). In light of advancements in infrasonic methodologies, there is a need for a comprehensive overview of the characteristics that distinguish bolides from other infrasound sources and methodologies for bolide infrasound analysis. This paper provides a focused review of key considerations and presents a unified framework to enhance infrasound processing approaches specifically tailored for bolides. Three representative case studies are presented to demonstrate the practical application of infrasound processing methodologies and deriving source parameters while exploring challenges associated with bolide-generated infrasound. These case studies underscore the effectiveness of infrasound in determining source parameters and highlight interpretative challenges, such as variations in signal period measurements across different studies. Future research should place emphasis on improving geolocation and yield accuracy. This can be achieved through rigorous and systematic analyses of large, statistically significant samples of such events, aiming to resolve interpretative inconsistencies and explore the causes for variability in signal periods and back azimuths. The topic described here is also relevant to space exploration involving planetary bodies with atmospheres, such as Venus, Mars, and Titan.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Self-Supervised T-GCN for Detection of Disturbance and Propagation in Power Grid

Urban power systems increasingly rely on dense sensing to monitor grid reliability, yet disturbance labels are scarce and events are rare. We present a self-supervised spatio-temporal method that detects, localizes, and characterizes grid frequency disturbances across urban areas using only unlabeled data. Our approach trains a tiny Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (T-GCN) to forecast per-site frequency residuals (deviation from 60 Hz). The sensor graph is constructed directly from signals using pre-event Pearson correlation with a cross-correlation lag penalty without geocoding. At inference, node-level anomalies are the model's forecast errors; region-level alarms arise from connected components of high-score nodes. We estimate disturbance propagation by computing per-node arrival times (first persistent exceedance), then fit a planar or time-of-arrival model to obtain direction, speed, and an epicenter proxy. With only three real events collected at decisecond resolution across U.S. cities, we evaluate the T-GCN and report time-to-detect, footprint size, and propagation consistency. We further show that short-window embeddings from the T-GCN's hidden states enable few-shot event-vs-background recognition via a simple prototypical classifier. Despite minimal data and no labels, our system yields fast, spatially coherent detection and interpretable propagation maps, offering a practical, lightweight pathway to city-scale grid resilience analytics.

Niu, Haoran [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000155228297)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Charge-trap analysis in a SENSEI skipper-CCD: Understanding low-energy backgrounds in rare-event searches

Skipper charge-coupled devices (CCDs) are ultralow-threshold detectors capable of detecting energy deposits in silicon at the electronvolt scale. Skipper CCDs are increasingly used in rare-event searches, including experiments such as SENSEI, DAMIC-M, Oscura, and CONNIE, where one of the major challenges is mitigating low-energy backgrounds. In this work, we present results on trap characterization in a silicon skipper-CCD produced in the same fabrication run as the SENSEI experiment at SNOLAB. Lattice defects contribute to backgrounds in rare-event searches through single-electron charge trapping. To investigate this, we use the charge-pumping technique at different temperatures to identify dipoles produced by traps in the CCD channel. We fully characterize a fraction of these traps and use this information to extrapolate their contribution to the single-electron background in SENSEI. We find that this subpopulation of traps does not contribute significantly, but more work is needed to assess the impact of the traps that cannot be characterized.

Brusco, Agustin↗

DOE OSTI2025

A real-time search for Type Ia Supernovae with late-time interactions with circumstellar material in ZTF data

While it is generally accepted that Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are the terminal explosions of white dwarfs (WDs), the nature of their progenitor systems and the mechanisms that lead up to these explosions remain widely debated. In rare cases, the SN ejecta interact with circumstellar material (CSM) that had previously been ejected from the progenitor system. The longer the delay between the creation of the CSM and the SN explosion, the greater the distance between the SN explosion site and the CSM and the later the onset of the interaction. The unknown distance between the CSM and SN explosion site makes it impossible to predict when the interaction will start. If the time between the SN explosion and the onset of the CSM interaction is of the order of several months to years, the SN has generally faded and it is no longer actively followed up on. This makes it even more difficult to detect the interaction while it is happening. In this work, we report on a real-time monitoring programme running between 13 November 2023 and 9 July 2024. It monitored 6914 SNe Ia for signs of late-time rebrightening using the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). Flagged candidates were rapidly followed up on with photometry and spectroscopy to confirm the late-time excess and its position. We report the discovery of a ∼50 day rebrightening event in SN 2020qxz around 1200 rest-frame days after the peak of its light curve. SN 2020qxz exhibited signs of an early CSM interaction, but had faded from view over two years before its reappearance. Initial follow-up spectroscopy revealed the presence of four emission lines, while later follow-up spectroscopy showed that these had faded shortly after the end of the ZTF-detected rebrightening event. Our best match for these emission lines are H β (blueshifted by ∼5900 km s −1 ) and Ca II λ8542 , N I λ8567 , and K I λλ8763, 8767 (all blueshifted by 5100 km s −1 ; although we note that the line identifications are uncertain). This shows that catching and following up on late-time interactions as they occur can offer new clues on the nature of the progenitor systems that produce these SNe by putting constraints on the possible type of donor star. The only way to do this systematically is to use large sky surveys such as ZTF and the upcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) to monitor a large sample of objects for the rare events that reappear long after the object has faded from view.

circumstellar matter↗