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Results for “FLUID INJECTION”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Field experiments of surface water to groundwater recharge to characterize the mobility of uranium and vanadium at a former mill tailing site

Characterizing the mobility of uranium and vanadium in groundwater with a hydraulic connection to surface water is important to inform the best management practices of former mill tailing sites. In this study, the recharge of river water to the unsaturated and saturated zones of a uranium-contaminated alluvial aquifer was simulated in a series of forced-gradient single- and multi-well injection-extraction tests. The injection fluid (river water) was traced with natural and artificial tracers that included halides, fluorobenzoates, lithium, and naphthalene sulfonate to characterize the potential mass transport mechanisms of uranium and vanadium. The extraction fluid (river water/groundwater mixture) was analyzed for the tracers, uranium, and vanadium. The results from the tracers indicated that matrix diffusion was likely negligible over the spatiotemporal scales of the tests as evident by nearly identical breakthrough curves of the halides and fluorobenzoates. In contrast, the breakthrough curves of lithium and naphthalene sulfonate indicated that sorption by cation exchange and sorption to organic matter, respectively, were potential mass transport mechanisms of uranium and vanadium. Uranium was mobilized in the saturated zone containing gypsum (gypsum-rich zone), the vadose zone (vadose-rich zone), and the saturated zone containing organic carbon (organic-rich zone) whereas vanadium was mobilized only in the saturated gypsum-rich zone. The mechanisms responsible for the mobilization of uranium and vanadium were likely dissolution of uranium- and vanadium-bearing minerals and/or desorption from the gypsum-rich zone, flushing of uranium from the vadose-rich zone, and desorption of uranium from the organic-rich zone due to the natural contrast in the geochemistry between the river water and groundwater. The experimental design of this study was unique in that it employed the use of multiple natural and artificial tracers coupled with a direct injection of native river water to groundwater. Here, these results demonstrated that natural recharge and flooding events at former mill tailing sites can mobilize uranium, and possibly vanadium, and contribute to persistent levels of groundwater contamination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermal Effects on Far-Field Distributed Acoustic Strain-Rate Sensors

Summary Fiber-optic cables cemented outside of the casing of an unconventional well measure crosswell strain changes during fracturing of neighboring wells with low-frequency distributed acoustic sensing (LF-DAS). As a hydraulic fracture intersects an observation well instrumented with fiber-optic cables, the fracture fluid injected at ambient temperatures can cool a section of the sensing fiber. Often, LF-DAS and distributed temperature sensing (DTS) cables are run in tandem, enabling the detection of such cooling events. The increasing use of LF-DAS for characterizing unconventional hydraulic fracture completions demands an investigation of the effects of temperature on the measured strain response by LF-DAS. Researchers have demonstrated that LF-DAS can be used to extract the temporal derivative of temperature for use as a differential-temperature-gradient sensor. However, differential-temperature-gradient sensing is predicated on the ability to filter strain components out of the optical signal. In this work, beginning with an equation for optical phase shift of LF-DAS signals, a model relating strain, temperature, and optical phase shift is explicitly developed. The formula provides insights into the relative strength of strain and temperature effects on the phase shift. The uncertainty in the strain-rate measurements due to thermal effects is estimated. The relationship can also be used to quantify uncertainties in differential-temperature-gradient sensors due to strain perturbations. Additionally, a workflow is presented to simulate the LF-DAS response accounting for both strain and temperature effects. Hydraulic fracture geometries are generated with a 3D fracture simulator for a multistage unconventional completion. The fracture width distributions are imported by a displacement discontinuity method (DDM) program to compute the strain rates along an observation well. An analytic model is used to approximate the temperature in the fracture. Using the derived formulae for optical phase shift, the model outputs are then used to compute the LF-DAS response at a fiber-optic cable, enabling the generation of waterfall plots including both strain and thermal effects. The model results suggest that before, during, and immediately following a fracture intersecting a well instrumented with fiber, the strain on the fiber drives the LF-DAS signal. However, at later times, as completion fluid cools the observation well, the temperature component of the LF-DAS signal can be equal to or exceed the strain component. The modeled results are compared to a published field case in an attempt to enhance the interpretation of LF-DAS waterfall plots. Finally, we propose a sensing configuration to identify the events when “wet fractures” (fractures with fluids) intersect the observation well.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2016

Increased stream discharge after the 3 September 2016 M w 5.8 Pawnee, Oklahoma earthquake

Earthquakes influence hydrogeological processes and properties in Earth's crust, some of which affect surface waters. Here we document increased discharge in a stream after the 3 September 2016 M w 5.8 earthquake near Pawnee, Oklahoma, an event likely induced by underground wastewater disposal. Discharge increased by an order of magnitude and remained elevated until the change was obscured by rain 1 week later. Given the earthquake magnitude and distance from the stream, by comparison with previous examples of responses to earthquakes, increased discharge after this earthquake is expected. While the mechanism increasing discharge cannot be confirmed, the observations require changes in physical properties of the subsurface. Fluid injection may thus influence hydrogeological properties of shallow groundwater systems and aquifers indirectly by inducing seismicity, if the induced seismic events are large enough.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Validating induced seismicity forecast models—Induced Seismicity Test Bench

Abstract Induced earthquakes often accompany fluid injection, and the seismic hazard they pose threatens various underground engineering projects. Models to monitor and control induced seismic hazard with traffic light systems should be probabilistic, forward‐looking, and updated as new data arrive. In this study, we propose an Induced Seismicity Test Bench to test and rank such models; this test bench can be used for model development, model selection, and ensemble model building. We apply the test bench to data from the Basel 2006 and Soultz‐sous‐Forêts 2004 geothermal stimulation projects, and we assess forecasts from two models: Shapiro and Smoothed Seismicity (SaSS) and Hydraulics and Seismics (HySei). These models incorporate a different mix of physics‐based elements and stochastic representation of the induced sequences. Our results show that neither model is fully superior to the other. Generally, HySei forecasts the seismicity rate better after shut‐in but is only mediocre at forecasting the spatial distribution. On the other hand, SaSS forecasts the spatial distribution better and gives better seismicity rate estimates before shut‐in. The shut‐in phase is a difficult moment for both models in both reservoirs: the models tend to underpredict the seismicity rate around, and shortly after, shut‐in.

Király‐Proag, Eszter↗
DOE OSTI2018

Effectiveness of supercritical-CO 2 and N 2 huff-and-puff methods of enhanced oil recovery in shale fracture networks using microfluidic experiments

Current oil recovery methods in hydraulically fractured shale reservoirs have a low recovery efficiency of about 10%. The objective of this work is to investigate the effectiveness of nitrogen and supercritical carbon dioxide in the huff-and-puff method for enhanced oil recovery as a means to re-energize reservoirs and improve recovery rates. Here, we conduct direct visualization experiments with a microfluidic system to reveal the mechanisms and to quantify the recovery rates of oil from fracture networks. We compared the effectiveness of water, nitrogen and supercritical carbon dioxide at reservoir conditions in a process mimicking the huff-and-puff method in both dead-end and connected fracture systems. The microfluidic chips were made of glass and placed in a confining pressure system pressurized to 10 MPa, 50 °C. The system was allowed to equilibrate, and then depressurized to simulate huff-and-puff oil recovery. Fluorescence microscope images were continuously taken to visualize and calculate residual oil saturation as a function of pressure drawdown. As the system was depressurized from 10 MPa, gas exsolution from the oil liquid phase, including bubble nucleation, growth, and coalescence, appeared to be the main driver for mobilizing oil from the fracture networks. Injection of supercritical CO 2 resulted in the highest recovery rate with an average end-point recovery of about 90% in the connected fracture network and 60% in the dead-end fracture network. N 2 has lower solubility in oil and hence showed a lower recovery rate of 40% in the connected fracture network and 25% in the dead-end fracture network. Injection of water had no effect on oil mobilization since water is insoluble, immiscible and incompressible. The main mechanism of enhanced recovery was gas exsolution from the liquid phase as pressure was decreased below the bubble point pressure. Because the gas was distributed throughout the oil phase, bubble nucleation, growth, coalescence, and elongation occurred throughout the fracture network. Expansion of the gas forced oil out of the network through piston displacement in continuous oil areas and film flow in the dispersed oil areas. Bubbles began as spheres and grew until they touched the fracture walls where they elongated along the fracture length. The bubble growth rate depended on local mass transfer from liquid to gas phase and gas volume expansion due to pressure drop. The efficiency of the huff-and-puff process is dependent on the solubility and miscibility of the injection fluid with oil. High gas solubility allows for more bubble nucleation, growth and expansion during the depressurization cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of a high-temperature combination heat pump for lower-cost electrification in multifamily buildings

The development of space and water heating combination heat pumps capable of generating water temperatures high enough for convective heat emitters will enable more cost-effective and equitable decarbonization solutions for electrifying multifamily buildings. Here, in this paper, multifamily building models and a charge-sensitive mechanistic cycle model of a combination heat pump are developed, and the system performance is predicted based on the models. Unlike other state-of-the-art residential heat pumping equipment, the modeled combination heat pump using an economized, fluid-injected variable-speed compressor can achieve higher temperature lifts of 40° - 85°C, with lower installation costs and complexity. The model predicted heating coefficient of performance (COP h ) is 2.1 at an ambient temperature of -15°C with a high-temperature lift of nearly 85°C, and a seasonal coefficient of performance in heating mode (SCOP h ) ranges from 2 - 4 for different locations. The system shows 30% - 90% lower CO 2 eq emissions over a condensing gas boiler and 9% - 13% lower projected installation costs than two separate space and water heat pumping appliances.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Experimental evaluation of the role of redox during glauconite-CO 2 -brine interactions

Greensands formations are globally abundant sedimentary rocks rich in Fe clays (typically glauconite) that commonly contain natural hydrocarbon accumulations and may be important reservoirs for geologic storage of anthropogenic CO 2 . Diagenesis in greensands is commonly accompanied by the conversion of primary glauconite to siderite (FeCO 3 ), a process that could be exploited for the permanent trapping of CO 2 . Importantly, siderite formation after glauconite requires that the mostly oxidized Fe in the primary Fe clay minerals is reduced during diagenetic interactions. Here, we explore the effect of solution redox state on the stability of glauconite in sandstones with implications for the diagenetic and/or engineered formation of siderite. We performed two flow-through experiments on intact, glauconite-rich sandstone cores at 150 °C and 150 bar. Both experiments employed a 1 mol NaCl/kg, 0.1 mol NaHCO 3 /kg solution charged with ~0.58 mol CO 2 /kg solution, but the redox state of the injected fluid was manipulated between experiments in order to compare glauconite reactivity and siderite saturation state at oxidizing and reducing end-member conditions. After reaction with the oxidizing (O 2 (aq) ≈ 6 μmol/kg) fluid, chemical and Mӧssbauer spectroscopic analyses indicate the production of Fe(III)-oxy/hydroxide minerals from glauconite, whereas, in the reducing (H 2 (aq) ≈ 5–40 mmol/kg) experiment, thermodynamic calculations and coupled chemical, mineralogical, and Mӧssbauer analyses suggest glauconite dissolution and precipitation of an Fe(II) mineral, likely siderite, and minor magnetite formation. These experimental results, along with thermodynamic calculations, confirm that solution redox state is the master variable dictating siderite formation in greensands.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2017

TOUGH–RBSN simulator for hydraulic fracture propagation within fractured media: Model validations against laboratory experiments

This study presents coupled hydro-mechanical modeling of hydraulic fracturing processes in complex fractured media using a discrete fracture network (DFN) approach. The individual physical processes in the fracture propagation are represented by separate program modules: the TOUGH2 code for multiphase flow and mass transport based on the finite volume approach; and the rigid-body-spring network (RBSN) model for mechanical and fracture-damage behavior, which are coupled with each other. Fractures are modeled as discrete features, of which the hydrological properties are evaluated from the fracture deformation and aperture change. The verification of the TOUGH–RBSN code is performed against a 2D analytical model for single hydraulic fracture propagation. Subsequently, modeling capabilities for hydraulic fracturing are demonstrated through simulations of laboratory experiments conducted on rock-analogue (soda-lime glass) samples containing a designed network of pre-existing fractures. Sensitivity analyses are also conducted by changing the modeling parameters, such as viscosity of injected fluid, strength of pre-existing fractures, and confining stress conditions. The hydraulic fracturing characteristics attributed to the modeling parameters are investigated through comparisons of the simulation results.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

CO 2 injection-induced fracturing in naturally fractured shale rocks

In this study, Niobrara shale cubes of 20 cm from Colorado were employed to investigate gas and supercritical CO 2 injection-induced fracturing in naturally fractured caprocks of deep aquifers/depleted reservoirs and fractured shale reservoirs. Under tri-axial stresses, gas or supercritical CO 2 was injected into the center of the cubes to induce fracturing. Real-time pressure and temperature, acoustic wave, pressure decay, fracture coloring, and gas fracturing were used to characterize the fracturing process and fracture morphology. Without pore pressure, CO 2 injection-induced fracturing occurred and completed instantly, accompanied by an evident temperature drop. Strongly bonded fractures barely affected transverse fracture propagation, whereas weakly bonded or open fractures arrested the injected fluid first and then allowed it to generate new fractures perpendicular to the minimum horizontal stress. Breakdown pressures for cubes with preexisting fractures using gas and supercritical CO 2 are much lower than both poroelastic predictions and slick-water fracturing pressure, and some are even lower than the minimum horizontal stress. This is attributed to unconformable preexisting fractures and the low viscosity of CO 2 . Moreover, decreasing tri-axial stress levels and increasing stress differences tend to lower the breakdown pressure. In conclusion, this study is instructive for understanding and tackling geomechanical issues related to CO 2 geological storage and fracturing of shale reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved geophysical monitoring of carbon sequestration through parameter linkage to reservoir modeling

Predictive reservoir modeling, even if present in the form of only basic hydrogeological model assumptions, is expected to accompany the majority of carbon capture and sequestration monitoring activities. It thus represents a source of prior information about the migration of injected fluids that can benefit geophysical survey planning and ensuing monitoring. Constraining the imaging of geophysical monitoring data with reservoir modeling is preferable over standalone geophysical imaging because of additional complementary hydrogeological information. However, fully coupled hydrogeophysical data inversion for flow-modeling parameters that control saturation predictions is an involved process. Within the context of three-dimensional electromagnetic (EM) inversion of data from borehole-to-surface layouts, we employ a "poor people's" alternative. The approach constrains geophysical inversion parameters through saturation predictions. The coupling is realized through spatially variable lower and upper parameter bounds that scale with gas saturation magnitudes, the latter provided by reservoir modeling. In this work, enhancement of three-dimensional time-lapse plume EM imaging is demonstrated for simulated sequestration into a depleted gas reservoir.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A review of thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling of coupled processes in fractured rock: From continuum to discontinuum perspective

Coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes in fractured rock are playing a crucial role in geoscience and geoengineering applications. Diverse and conceptually distinct approaches have emerged over the past decades in both continuum and discontinuum perspectives leading to significant progress in their comprehending and modeling. This review paper offers an integrated perspective on existing modeling methodologies providing guidance for model selection based on the initial and boundary conditions. By comparing various models, one can better assess the uncertainties in predictions, particularly those related to the conceptual models. The review explores how these methodologies have significantly enhanced the fundamental understanding of how fractures respond to fluid injection and production, and improved predictive capabilities pertaining to coupled processes within fractured systems. It emphasizes the importance of utilizing advanced computational technologies and thoroughly considering fundamental theories and principles established through past experimental evidence and practical experience. The selection and calibration of model parameters should be based on typical ranges and applied to the specific conditions of applications. The challenges arising from inherent heterogeneity and uncertainties, nonlinear THM coupled processes, scale dependence, and computational limitations in representing field scale fractures are discussed. Realizing potential advances on computational capacity calls for methodical conceptualization, mathematical modeling, selection of numerical solution strategies, implementation, and calibration to foster simulation outcomes that intricately reflect the nuanced complexities of geological phenomena. Future research efforts should focus on innovative approaches to tackle the hurdles and advance the state-of-the-art in this critical field of study.

Coupling scheme↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning-assisted upscaling analysis of reservoir rock core properties based on micro-computed tomography imagery

Optimum solutions for geologic modeling and reservoir simulation in industries such as oil and gas recovery and carbon capture and storage require accurate characterization of reservoir properties, which are often heterogeneous. In this study, high-quality micro-computed tomography (CT) images (1.475-μm/pixel resolution) of a sandstone core acquired from the Bell Creek oil field, USA, were used to provide nondestructive analysis of pore- and core-scale heterogeneity across measurement scales of 94–566 μm. In addition to characterizing the as-received sample, the core sample was flooded with brine to evaluate the capacity of the core sample to receive injected fluids. The micro-CT images were systematically segmented into pore spaces and grains via machine learning (ML) steps including image preprocessing, label creation using a traditional ML method based on limited manual image annotation, and finally U-Net segmentation. The segmented image stacks were reconstructed into digital cubes of various scales of voxel lengths. The 3D porosity values were calculated for all the digital cubes, and the fractal dimensions of the cubes were estimated using a box-counting method. The results showed that smaller cubes had greater heterogeneity and that the porosity values could be accurately estimated by fractal dimension and voxel lengths using ML models. For the core sample with brine flooding, the ratio of pores filled by brine to the total pore space was related to the porosity and could also be accurately estimated by porosity, fractal dimension, and voxel lengths using ML models. In conclusion, the results of this study demonstrate that the concept of fractal dimension can be a useful vector to perform upscaling analysis of sandstone rock heterogeneity from the pore to core scale and that fractal dimensions can be used to estimate porosity values and pore space-filling capacity across those scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Mineralogical Controls on Frictional Strength, Stability, and Shear Permeability Evolution of Fractures

Massive fluid injection into the subsurface can induce microearthquakes by reactivating preexisting faults or fractures as seismic or aseismic slip. Such seismic or aseismic shear deformationsmay result in different modes of permeability evolution. Previous experimental studies have explored frictional stability-permeability relationships of carbonate-rich and phyllosilicate-rich samples under shear, suggesting that friction-permeability relationship may be primarily controlled by fracture minerals. We examine this relationship and identify the role of mineralogy (i.e., tectosilicate, carbonate, and phyllosilicate content) using direct-shear experiments on smooth saw-cut fractures of natural rocks and sintered fractures with distinct mineralogical compositions. These results indicate that the friction-permeability relationship is controlled by mineralogy. Frictional strength and permeability change upon reactivation decrease with phyllosilicate content but increase with tectosilicate content. In contrast, the reverse trend is observed for frictional stability (a-b). However, the permeability change decreases with carbonate content while both frictional strength and stability increase. The permeability change always decreases with an increase in frictional stability. This relationship implies a new mechanical-hydrochemical coupling loop via a linkage of frictional properties, mineralogy, and permeability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

How Equivalent Are Equivalent Porous Media?

Abstract Geoenergy and geoengineering applications usually involve fluid injection into and production from fractured media. Accounting for fractures is important because of the strong poromechanical coupling that ties pore pressure changes and deformation. A possible approach to the problem uses equivalent porous media to reduce the computational cost and model complexity instead of explicitly including fractures in the models. We investigate the validity of this simplification by comparing these two approaches. Simulation results show that pore pressure distribution significantly differs between the two approaches even when both are calibrated to predict identical values at the injection and production wells. Additionally, changes in fracture stability are not well captured with the equivalent porous medium. We conclude that explicitly accounting for fractures in numerical models may be necessary under some circumstances to perform reliable coupled thermohydromechanical simulations, which could be used in conjunction with other tools for induced seismicity forecasting.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydromechanical Modeling of Fault Rupture in Geologic CO 2 Sequestration: A Comparison of Two Failure Criteria

Abstract The large‐scale implementation of geological carbon sequestration has raised concerns about potential fault activation and induced seismicity, which could compromise storage integrity and pose seismic risks. We theoretically compared two failure criteria, Mohr‐Coulomb (MC) and Modified Cam‐Clay criteria (MCC), to assess fault rupture during CO 2 storage. Both criteria characterize fault behavior in a specific stress regime but differ in reducing the complexity of fault rupture to a few key mechanisms. Using a coupled hydromechanical model, we demonstrate that the choice of a failure criterion and the physics of fault weakening associated with these criteria strongly condition fault response to a given fluid injection. MC mainly relates rupture to friction, while MCC relates rupture to fault poro‐plasticity. Our findings highlight that the selection of a failure criterion, being inherently subjective, can significantly alter the predicted fault behavior during CO 2 storage, thereby impacting the reliability of geomechanical risk assessments.

Cao, M. [Energy Geosciences Division Lawrence Berk↗
DOE OSTI2020

Heliostat Aiming Strategies for Arbitrary Flux Profiles for High Temperature Gas-Based Receivers

High temperature gas-based receivers are seen as one potential path toward achieving the next generation of concentrated solar power tower systems. A key challenge associated with high temperature, high pressure heat transfer fluids is the lifetime of receiver containment materials. Achieving the desired lifetime while also designing an efficient receiver requires implementation of unique flux profiles, tailored to place high fluxes at cold fluid injection points. An aimpoint selection methodology was developed in the present study to allow user-defined flux profiles to be prescribed for a receiver. The methodology was implemented in NREL's open-source software SolarPILOT, modifying the existing “image size priority” aimpoint strategy. A case study for a tubular gas-based receiver is presented, examining the effect of various parameters on the ability to replicate the desired flux profile.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transforming microseismic clouds into near real-time visualization of the growing hydraulic fracture

SUMMARY Microseismic observations during unconventional reservoir stimulation are typically seen as a proxy for clusters of hydraulic fractures and the extent of the stimulated reservoir. Such straightforward interpretation is often misleading and fails to provide a physically reasonable image of the fracturing process. This paper demonstrates the application of a physics-based machine learning algorithm which enables a rapid and accurate fracture mapping from the microseismic data. Our training and validation data set relies on a history-matched geomechanical modelling workflow implemented in GEOS software for the Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site 1 (HFTS-1) project. For this study we augmented the simulated fracture growth through geostatistical modelling of induced seismicity, so that the synthetic microseismic catalogue matches the main statistical properties of the field observations. We formulated the problem of mapping the actual fracture in the clutter of events to parallel common video segmentation workflows: several past video frames (microseismic density snapshots) are passed through a deep convolutional network to classify whether a given voxel is associated with a fracture or intact rock. We found that for accurate fracture mapping, the network’s input and architecture must be augmented to incorporate the fluid injection parameters (pressure, rate, concentration of proppant, and location of the perforation within the cluster). The error rate for the network reached as little as 10 per cent of the fracture area, while a conventional microseismic interpretation approach yielded ∼300 per cent. Our approach also yields must faster predictions than conventional methods (minutes instead of weeks), and could enable engineers to make rapid decisions regarding engineering parameters (pumping rate, viscosity) in real time during stimulation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Natural time and nowcasting induced seismicity at the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands

The Groningen gas field in the Netherlands has a significant level of induced seismicity; this seismicity is attributed to fluid withdrawal not fluid injection. This is one of the most productive gas fields in Europe. Production began in 1963 and the first induced earthquake occurred in 1991. Increasing levels of seismicity led to the installation of a sensitive seismic network in 1995 with a minimum magnitude completeness of $M$ ≥ 1.5. The largest induced earthquake was a magnitude 3.6 in 2012, which caused thousands of damage claims and led to a reduction in gas production in 2014 January. In our work, we show that the induced earthquakes satisfy Gutenberg–Richter (GR) frequency–magnitude statistics over the range 1.5 ≤ $M$ ≤ 3.0. We utilize truncated GR scaling to introduce a possible maximum earthquake with $M$ = 3.85. We also demonstrate an almost complete absence of aftershocks following the largest induced earthquakes. To quantify the temporal evolution of the induced seismicity, we perform our nowcasting method. Nowcasting uses the catalogue of seismicity in the region. Two earthquake magnitudes are selected, one large say $M_λ$ ≥ 2.5, and one small say $M_σ$ ≥ 1.5. The method utilizes the number of small earthquakes that occur between pairs of large earthquakes. A major advantage of nowcasting is that it relies on ‘natural time’, earthquake counts, between events rather than clock time. Thus, the results are applicable to induced seismicity that varies in time. We count the rate of occurrence of small induced earthquakes to nowcast the probability of occurrence of larger earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗