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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

Influence of the continuous and dispersed phases on the symmetry of a gas turbine air-blast atomizer

Current trends in liquid-fueled practical combustion systems are leaving less tolerance for fuel injection deficiencies such as poor spray field symmetry. The present paper evaluates the symmetry of the flowfield produced by a practical airblast atomizer. Specifically, the influence of both the continuous phase and dispersed phase on the spray field symmetry is assessed. In the present case, asymmetry in volume flux is associated principally with disparities in the injection of the dispersed phase, which is manifested by a maldistribution of larger drops. Asymmetries observed in the continuous phase without the dispersed phase are reduced in magnitude by the presence of the dispersed phase, but still contribute to asymmetry in radial spread of the dispersed phase.

Mcdonell, V. G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bench-Scale Electrolytic Dissolution of Quarter-Scale FCA Cans

In 2016, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) led, in support of and under sponsorship of the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA) Office of Material Management and Minimization (M3), the removal and transfer of the plutonium based Fast Critical Assembly (FCA) fuel from the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) Tokai facility to the Savannah River Site (SRS). The team also included JAEA, multiple organizations in Savannah River Nuclear Solutions (SRNS), International Nuclear Services, and many other entities. The FCA fuel removal project completion was a key deliverable for M3 to the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit and constituted the largest inventory of weapons-usable plutonium removed under the nonproliferation program. The FCA materials consist of thousands of stainless steel (SS) clad plates and hundreds of SS clad rods. The FCA fuel elements were packaged in a carrier can and stored at SRS pending disposition of the fuel. Following an assessment of candidate disposition options, SRNS identified electrolytic dissolution (ED) as the most promising disposition option for the FCA plates and their preferred option was endorsed by DOE. This option entails electrochemically dissolving the entire FCA carrier can with fuel elements and was based on bench-scale laboratory testing and historical work on processing SS-clad and zirconium-clad uranium-based fuel in the H-Canyon electrolytic dissolver (last operated in 1980). The FCA plate consists of a plutonium-aluminum metal alloy core hermitically sealed in SS cladding.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1987

EXAFS: New tool for study of battery and fuel cell materials

Extended X ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) is a powerful technique for probing the local atomic structure of battery and fuel cell materials. The major advantages of EXAFS are that both the probe and the signal are X rays and the technique is element selective and applicable to all states of matter. This permits in situ studies of electrodes and determination of the structure of single components in composite electrodes, or even complete cells. EXAFS specifically probes short range order and yields coordination numbers, bond distances, and chemical identity of nearest neighbors. Thus, it is ideal for structural studies of ions in solution and the poorly crystallized materials that are often the active materials or catalysts in batteries and fuel cells. Studies on typical battery and fuel cell components are used to describe the technique and the capability of EXAFS as a structural tool in these applications. Typical experimental and data analysis procedures are outlined. The advantages and limitations of the technique are also briefly discussed.

Mcbreen, James↗
NASA NTRS1984

Development of carbon slurry fuels for transportation (hybrid fuels, phase 2)

Slurry fuels of various forms of solids in diesel fuel are developed and evaluated for their relative potential as fuel for diesel engines. Thirteen test fuels with different solids concentrations are formulated using eight different materials. A variety of properties are examined including ash content, sulfur content, particle size distribution, and rheological properties. Attempts are made to determine the effects of these variations on these fuel properties on injection, atomization, and combustion processes. The slurries are also tested in a single cylinder CLR engine in both direct injection and prechamber configurations. The data includes the normal performance parameters as well as heat release rates and emissions. The slurries perform very much like the baseline fuel. The combustion data indicate that a large fraction (90 percent or more) of the solids are burning in the engine. It appears that the prechamber engine configuration is more tolerant of the slurries than the direct injection configuration.

Ryan, T. W., III↗
DOE OSTI2020

High-volume and -adiabat capsule (“HVAC”) ignition: Lowered fuel compression requirements using advanced Hohlraums

Lower-than-expected deuterium–tritium fuel areal densities have been experimentally inferred across a variety of high-convergence, nominally low-adiabat implosion campaigns at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) using cylinder-shaped Hohlraums [Hurricane et al., Phys. Plasmas 26, 052704 (2019)]. A leading candidate explanation is the presence of atomic mix between the fuel and ablator from hydrodynamic instability growth [Clark et al., Phys. Plasmas 26, 050601 (2019)], leading to reduced fuel compressibility and an effectively higher (in-flight) fuel adiabat α. Tolerating a high-α implosion can be obtained with significantly higher capsule absorbed energy Ecap according to the one-dimensional (1-D) ignition-threshold-factor analytic scaling [S. Atzeni and J. Meyer-ter-Vehn, Nucl. Fusion 41, 465 (2001)], ITF∼Ecap·α−1.8. Recent experiments with large Al shells in rugby-shaped Hohlraums have established high laser-capsule coupling efficiencies of ≽ 30% [Ping et al., Nat. Phys. 15, 138 (2019)], enabling a path to Ecap≽ 0.5 MJ at the NIF and increased performance margin M ≡ ITF − 1. The ability to operate at high adiabat with large capsules using nonstandard Hohlraums leads to the predicted onset of a volume-ignition mode, defined as when both the entire fuel is the “hot spot” and inertial confinement is principally provided by the ablator compared with the compressed fuel. Such an ignition mode, normally reserved for high-Z targets, e.g., double shells [Amendt et al., Phys. Plasmas 14, 056312 (2007)], is predicted to lead to lower fuel convergence and less exposure to mix due to the intended high adiabat—but at the expense of ∼3–4 × reduced (1-D) yield compared with conventional central hot-spot ignition designs.

Amendt, Peter (ORCID:0000000174021777)↗
NASA NTRS1980

Experimental combustor study program

Advanced combustor concepts are evaluated as a means of accommodating possible future broad specification fuels. The three advanced double annular combustor concepts consisted of (1) a concept employing high pressure drop fuel nozzles for improved atomization, (2) a concept with premixing tubes in the main stage, and (3) a concept with the pilot stage on the inside and the main stage on the sideout, which is the reverse of the other two concepts. All of the advanced concepts show promise for reduced sensitivity to fuel hydrogen content. Some hardware problems were encountered, but these problems could be quickly resolved if refinement tests were conducted. The design with the premixing main stage was selected for a parametric test because of its low NOx emissions level, carbon free dome, and very low dome temperatures which were essentially independent of fuel type. The other advanced designs also had low done temperatures. The premixing dome design liner temperatures exhibited less sensitivity to fuel type than did the base-line combustor, although more sensitivity than observed for concept 1. The inner liner hot spot and the observed smoke results for the premixing design suggest that the fuel-air mixture was not as uniform as desired.

Kasper, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Applicability of Jet-Shear-Layer Mixing and Effervescent Atomization for Low-NO(x) Combustors

An investigation has been conducted to develop appropriate technologies for a low-NO(x), liquid-fueled combustor. The combustor incorporates an effervescent atomizer used to inject fuel into a premixing duct. Only a fraction of the combustion air is used in the premixing process. This fuel-rich mixture is introduced into the remaining combustion air by a rapid jet-shear-layer mixing process involving radial fuel-air jets impinging on axial air jets in the primary combustion zone. Computational modeling was used as a tool to facilitate a parametric analysis appropriate to the design of an optimum low-NO(x) combustor. A number of combustor configurations were studied to assess the key combustor technologies and to validate the three-dimensional modeling code. The results from the experimental testing and computational analysis indicate a low-NO(x) potential for the jet-shear-layer combustor. Key features found to affect NOx emissions are the primary combustion zone fuel-air ratio, the number of axial and radial jets, the aspect ratio and radial location of the axial air jets, and the radial jet inlet hole diameter. Each of these key parameters exhibits a low-NO(x) point from which an optimized combustor was developed Also demonstrated was the feasibility of utilizing an effervescent atomizer for combustor application. Further developments in the jet-shear-layer mixing scheme and effervescent atomizer design promise even lower NO(x) with high combustion efficiency.

Colantonio, R. O.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Phenomenological Thermal Spray Wall Interaction Modeling Framework Applied to a High Temperature Ignition Assistant Device

Airborne compression ignition engines must operate with reliable ignition systems to achieve proper ignition at every cycle, particularly at high altitudes. Glow-plug-based ignition-assistant (IA) devices can provide the necessary energy to preheat the fuel and ensure ignitability of the fuel-air mixture. Ignitability of liquid sprays can be facilitated via direct impingement onto the hot IA surface, however this comes with adverse effects on the IA durability. Therefore, optimizing an IA’s design requires detailed understanding of the physics of fuel spray impingement of superheated surfaces. While spray impingement on relatively low wall temperatures has been extensively studied and appropriate numerical models have been proposed through the years, fundamental understanding of high-speed liquid spray impingement on superheated walls is still elusive. This work aims to formulate a phenomenological thermal spray-wall interaction framework for modeling the film-boiling-induced heat transfer, atomization, and dispersion of fuel spray droplets impinging onto a superheated IA device. A qualitative comparison of the new phenomenological model is performed against optical experiments from the literature of an F-24 fuel spray injected onto an IA device located 12 mm away from the injector tip. The temperature of the IA was set at 1400 K. The fuel injection pressure was 400 bar, while the ambient gas pressure and temperature were 30 bar and 800 K, respectively. The performance of the phenomenological model is evaluated in comparison with two other state-of-art models from the literature. A qualitative analysis of the different spray and fuel-air mixture characteristics is performed to outline the differences in the predictions offered by the new phenomenological model and the two state-of-art spray-wall interaction models.

droplet dispersion↗
NASA NTRS1991

Fuel-rich, catalytic reaction experimental results

Future aeropropulsion gas turbine combustion requirements call for operating at very high inlet temperatures, pressures, and large temperature rises. At the same time, the combustion process is to have minimum pollution effects on the environment. Aircraft gas turbine engines utilize liquid hydrocarbon fuels which are difficult to uniformly atomize and mix with combustion air. An approach for minimizing fuel related problems is to transform the liquid fuel into gaseous form prior to the completion of the combustion process. Experimentally obtained results are presented for vaporizing and partially oxidizing a liquid hydrocarbon fuel into burnable gaseous components. The presented experimental data show that 1200 to 1300 K reaction product gas, rich in hydrogen, carbon monoxide, and light-end hydrocarbons, is formed when flowing 0.3 to 0.6 fuel to air mixes through a catalyst reactor. The reaction temperatures are kept low enough that nitrogen oxides and carbon particles (soot) do not form. Results are reported for tests using different catalyst types and configurations, mass flowrates, input temperatures, and fuel to air ratios.

Rollbuhler, R. James↗
NASA NTRS1991

Fuel-rich, catalytic reaction experimental results

Future aeropropulsion gas turbine combustion requirements call for operating at very high inlet temperatures, pressures, and large temperature rises. At the same time, the combustion process is to have minimum pollution effects on the environment. Aircraft gas turbine engines utilize liquid hydrocarbon fuels which are difficult to uniformly atomize and mix with combustion air. An approach for minimizing fuel related problems is to transform the liquid fuel into gaseous form prior to the completion of the combustion process. Experimentally obtained results are presented for vaporizing and partially oxidizing a liquid hydrocarbon fuel into burnable gaseous components. The presented experimental data show that 1200 to 1300 K reaction product gas, rich in hydrogen, carbon monoxide, and light-end hydrocarbons, is formed when flowing 0.3 to 0.6 fuel to air mixes through a catalyst reactor. The reaction temperatures are kept low enough that nitrogen oxides and carbon particles (soot) do not form. Results are reported for tests using different catalyst types and configurations, mass flowrates, input temperatures, and fuel to air ratios.

Rollbuhler, Jim↗
DOE OSTI2020

Combined Experimental/Numerical Study of the Soot Formation Process in a Gasoline Direct-Injection Spray in the Presence of Laser-Induced Plasma Ignition

Here, combustion issued from an eight-hole, direct-injection spray was experimentally studied in a constant-volume pre-burn combustion vessel using simultaneous high-speed diffused back-illumination extinction imaging (DBIEI) and OH* chemiluminescence. DBIEI has been employed to observe the liquid-phase of the spray and to quantitatively investigate the soot formation and oxidation taking place during combustion. The fuel-air mixture was ignited with a plasma induced by a single-shot Nd:YAG laser, permitting precise control of the ignition location in space and time. OH* chemiluminescence was used to track the high-temperature ignition and flame. The study showed that increasing the delay between the end of injection and ignition drastically reduces soot formation without necessarily compromising combustion efficiency. For long delays between the end of injection and ignition (1.9 ms) soot formation was eliminated in the main downstream charge of the fuel spray. However, poorly atomized and large droplets formed at the end of injection (dribble) eventually do form soot near the injector even when none is formed in the main charge. The quantitative soot measurements for these spray and ignition scenarios, resolved in time and space, represents a significant new achievement. Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations were performed to assess spray mixing and combustion. An analysis of the predicted fuel-air mixture in key regions, defined based upon experimental observations, was used to explain different flame propagation speeds and soot production tendencies when varying ignition timing. The mixture analysis indicates that soot production can be avoided if the flame propagates into regions where the equivalence ratio (Φ) is already below 2. Reactive RANS simulations have also been performed, but with a poor match against the experiment, as the flame speed and heat-release rate are largely over estimated. This modeling weakness appears related to a very high level of turbulent viscosity predicted for the high-momentum spray in the RANS simulations, which is an important consideration for modeling ignition and flame propagation in mixtures immediately created by the spray.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Microstructural-Level Fuel Performance Modeling of U-Mo Monolithic Fuel

As the physics that governs the microstructural evolution of nuclear fuel span various time and spatial scales, to fully understand the fuel behavior inevitably involves atomic to mesoscale resolution that can be difficult to determine experimentally. Microstructural-level modeling and simulations can be used to develop physics-based materials models that can provide physical understanding to inform fabrication process control, as well as a valuable feedback mechanism between post-irradiation examination (PIE) results and fabrication parameters. In accordance with the program schedule, the primary goals of the microstructure modeling effort are to: 1. Address critical microstructural questions and provide practical guidance to the fabricator via the fuel product specification; 2. Provide mechanistic inputs for the existing fuel performance code to improve its descriptive and predictive capability at the macroscopic scale. In fiscal year (FY)-21, the work scope consisted of six main facets: (1) the effect of carbides on fuel performance; (2) gas diffusivity in different phases; (3) integration of microstructural fuel performance modeling; (4) property degradation; (5) irradiation creep; and (6) historical analysis of microstructure data. Brief summaries of each are included below.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effect of Aromaticity on Soot Formation: A Reactive Molecular Dynamics Study

This study investigates the formation of soot from n-dodecane and its blend with m-xylene under pyrolytic and low-oxygen conditions with reactive molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. ReaxFF force field is used to simulate the interactions of fuel and oxygen molecules at engine-relevant conditions (2500-3500 K and 70-75 bar). Fuel molecules with carbon atom density of 0.03 g/cm 3 are dispersed into a cube and constant temperature simulations are carried out with a Nosé-Hoover thermostat. Pyrolysis of n-dodecane and the chemical pathway towards the formation of aromatic hydrocarbons are investigated. The initial pyrolysis rate of n-dodecane is observed to be slightly higher with the addition of aromatic compounds and oxygen. While the first aromatics formed from the decomposed n-dodecane are phenyl radicals at 2500 K, decomposition of the aliphatic fuel compound is observed to be necessary to build a carbon cluster, and eventually soot. Morphological properties of the created soot particles are also analyzed. The maturity, size and aromatics content of the soot particle are slightly affected with the addition of m-xylene and oxygen at 3500 K within the 3 ns simulation time possibly due the formation of larger and more condensed aromatic rings, resulting in larger soot molecules. The outcomes of this study provide important insights into the formation mechanism of soot and its morphological characteristics depending on varying fuel concentrations at pyrolysis and low oxygen engine conditions. Results of this analysis will further contribute to the understanding of contrail formation on generated soot particles originated from the combustion of different chemical components with particle chemistry matching companion experiments.

soot formation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evidence of Xe-incorporation in the bubble superlattice in irradiated U-Mo fuel

For years, researchers have reported competing ideas on the formation of fission gas bubble super lattices in metallic fuels, which was postulated to be comprised of elemental xenon (Xe) atoms. However, the chemical and physical arrangement of these elements within this gas bubble superlattice has not been verified. In this contribution, Xe was chemically profiled using atomic resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) and atom probe tomography (APT) techniques in irradiated uranium-molybdenum (U-Mo) fuels. These complementary techniques provide conclusive evidence of Xe presence in bubble superlattice up to fission densities of 4.5×10 21 fissions/cm 3 and provide quantitative assessment of Xe content within the bubble superlattice. Based on the results of simultaneous imaging and spectroscopy using STEM, the chemical composition of the Xe bubble superlattice present in fission densities less than 4.5x10 21 fissions/cm 3 in U-Mo fuel was measured and found to be up to 8±1.3 atomic %. APT data complements STEM findings on Xe distribution in irradiated U-Mo fuel sample. APT showed a chemical composition of 0.7±0.1 atomic%. Finally, this study concludes by providing conclusive evidence that Xe is not only present within an atomically arranged bubble superlattice but provides fundamental insight the physical state of Xe in low enriched U-Mo monolithic fuel.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1995

Cryogenic and Simulated Fuel Jet Breakup in Argon, Helium and Nitrogen Gas Flows

Two-phase flow atomization of liquid nitrogen jets was experimentally investigated. They were co-axially injected into high-velocity gas flows of helium, nitrogen and argon, respectively, and atomized internally inside a two-fluid fuel nozzle. Cryogenic sprays with relatively high specific surface areas were produced, i.e., ratios of surface area to volume were fairly high. This was indicated by values of reciprocal Sauter mean diameters, RSMD's, as measured with a scattered- light scanning instrument developed at NASA Lewis Research Center. Correlating expressions were derived for the three atomizing gases over a gas temperature range of 111 to 422 K. Also, the correlation was extended to include waterjet breakup data that had been previously obtained in simulating fuel jet breakup in sonic velocity gas flow. The final correlating expression included a new dimensionless molecular-scale acceleration group. It was needed to correlate RSMD data, for LN2 and H2O sprays, with the fluid properties of the liquid jets and atomizing gases used in this investigation.

Ingebo, Robert D.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distribution Development for Residual Inventory at the New York West Valley Site - 20400

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351 ha site located approximately 48 km south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into Agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States. NFS, a private company, built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations ended in 1972 and never reopened, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. Operations led to contamination in a number of facilities and locations. Some of that contamination has migrated from waste disposal zones to other layers, formations, and features on and off the WNYNSC. Phase I decommissioning activities are ongoing and involve the removal of a number of areas and structures that have been associated with contamination. The purpose of this work is to outline the approach for characterizing contamination not associated with disposed wastes, contaminated structures, or specific releases. In this work, the term, residual radiological activity, is used to describe environmental contamination that exists subsequent to the completion of Phase I decommissioning activities, that is not associated with disposed wastes, contaminated structures, or specific releases. Contamination from the Site was quantified relative to data that characterize the concentrations of radionuclides that exist in background. Background concentrations are those present in the area but having no influence from Site related activities. The existence of residual radiological activity that is elevated relative to background has the potential to contribute to future risks to human health and the environment. As a consequence, the residual inventory information is used to inform the West Valley Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) model to characterize potential future risks to human health and the environment. The centralized West Valley Data Management System (DMS) was the source of information for the data assembled in this analysis. The DMS is a fairly large compilation consisting of thousands of records from investigation studies, with sample dates ranging from 1990 to present. Samples from monitoring wells, boreholes, geoprobe studies, surface water, surface soils, storm water outfalls, ventilation stack filters, plant and animal tissues, and more are included in the DMS. Results are typically reported in units of activity per unit volume. For the purpose of the analyses presented here, all results were converted into consistent units of pCi per unit volume. Since 1990, data have been collected from various locations across the WNYNSC at different times with varying frequency over the course of several decades. As a consequence, a number of potential issues can arise with respect to the assembly of a dataset that is deemed adequate for the characterization of residual radiological activity. These issues were assessed and resolved to the extent possible through careful consideration of the properties of the distributions. The intent was to use data which characterize the current state of the Site. Radionuclides can be designated to one of several groups depending on their origin. In this work the groups considered were 1) Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material (NORM), 2) fallout, and 3) Other (including power plant, medical research, etc). This grouping is a useful construct with respect to the interpretation of fixed laboratory results. For example, NORM radionuclides that exist within a decay chain should have approximately equivalent distributions of concentrations if they are representative of background conditions. Insights such as these can be used as a check to identify sample results that need to be further investigated or omitted due to issues associated with reported results from fixed laboratory analyses. This type of analysis provided a foundation for the assessment of the adequacy of sample results for use in subsequent components of an assessment. The general process for the assessment of residual radiological contamination at the Site consists of a sequence of several steps. First, for each analyte, several statistical tests were performed to assess the weight of evidence against the null hypothesis that the mean of the distribution of concentrations was equal to zero. If the mean of the distribution of concentrations for a given radionuclide was not found to be greater than zero, then it was removed from consideration as a component of the residual radiological contamination. If there was significant evidence to reject the hypothesis of the mean being equal to zero, the second step was to compare the distribution of the data from the Site to that of the corresponding background. A suite of tests was used to compare the distributions of the site and background data. The results of these tests were collectively used to determine if site data are elevated relative to background. The third step was to develop distributions using a Bayesian framework to characterize the distribution of mean of the increment present above background for each of the radionuclides. The Bayesian model implemented allowed for the comparison of site-specific records to background concentrations to better approximate contamination attributed to the Site. A final screening step was employed for radionuclides that exceed background. This screening step compared 95% upper confidence limits (UCLs) from the increment distribution developed in the previous step to the risk screening levels. This approach yields a list of analytes that were determined to be elevated relative to background.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying the impact of climate change on erosion - 20397

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351-ha (3,338-ac) site located approximately 48 km (30 mi) south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into Agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States. NFS, a private company, built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg (metric tons, or 705 short tons) of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations ended in 1972 and never reopened, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. Erosion can play an important role in the fate and transport of waste at sites where disposal of long-lived waste is anticipated. The statistical characterization of key processes related to erosion is essential to the understanding of site stability through time. One of the key processes governing erosion is extreme precipitation and it is critical that trends in the distribution of extreme precipitation events through time be represented. The evidence of climate change is increasingly well documented and projected impacts on extreme precipitation events should be incorporated in performance assessment studies when relevant. Not evaluating future climate states in a performance assessment is contradictory to good modeling practice. Specifically, excluding climate change limits development of modeling information that could aid in effective decision making. The current climate literature provides both observational evidence and climate model projections of climate trends and/or climate change in the late 20. and early 21. centuries for North America and the northeast United States. In this work, this information was used to assess the impacts of potential changes in climate on erosion processes. The goal was to understand how projections of future climate relate to the performance of the WNYNSC through time. In the first stage of this work multi-temporal historical aerial images were analyzed in conjunction with orthophotography and Lidar data to develop probability distributions for variables representing important erosion processes. The information from these analyses was then used in conjunction with simulated data from the West Valley Erosion Working Group (EWG). Analysis of EWG simulations provides estimates for the change in erosion rates through time that is driven by changes in climate. The time-varying rates of erosion change were applied to the historical aerial imagery data in order to inform time-varying rates of erosion that are driven by changes in climate. Ultimately, this process resulted in the identification of locations for features like gully heads using both the Lidar dataset and projection of the estimated location from the historical aerial photo under consideration back to the Lidar dataset. The distance between the estimate of the location from the historical image and that of the Lidar dataset was the estimated distance the feature has moved. This distance was then divided by the number of years between the Lidar dataset and the year of the historical aerial image of interest to get a rate of movement through time. This was done for several dozen points on each historical aerial image. The analyses from the EWG were used to characterize the relative impact of climate change on the erosion rates. This relative impact was quantified by comparing the LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using historical climate data with LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using projections of future climate. The relative increase in the erosion rates was then applied to the historical estimates of erosion derived from the analysis of the historical aerial imagery. This approach was used since the LEM-based estimated of the historical erosion rates from the past century have a bias towards underestimating erosion. This underestimation is hypothesized to be a consequence of an inability of the LEMs to account for the impacts of land-use change (i.e. deforestation) which had been shown to significantly increase erosion in similar Northern hardwood forest ecosystems. In summary, gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate were characterized using statistical probability distributions from the historical aerial image analysis. Simulated data from the EWG was used to estimate the climatically-driven changes in erosion rates through time. The changes through time from the EWG were applied to the gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate characterized using the historical aerial image analysis. This information can be used to inform PPA models to project future risks from a given site. (authors)

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