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At least 217 records · Page 12

Lessons Learned in Space Life Support System Testing

The earlier problems can be found and corrected, the easier and cheaper it is to fix them. Doing less testing saves cost and time but doing too little testing increases the risk of operational failures causing large costs and delays. Integrated test is necessary to determine if the subsystems work together and the overall architecture performs as intended. This report reviews the testing lessons learned from the NASA Systems Engineering Handbook, a National Research Council report, and five reviews of International Space Station (ISS) lessons learned. The five reviews all mention two important points. First, that testing should be performed on the final integrated system, one as close as possible to the intended flight system. Second, “test as you fly,” while operating as planned in an environment as close as possible to the expected flight environment. Other lessons are the need for extensive preflight ground testing, the need to establish and defend an adequate budget, the problems using protoflight hardware on ISS, and the benefit of having ISS as a zero gravity test bed. The major ISS life support systems, carbon dioxide removal, water recycling, and oxygen recovery, were protoflight systems with little testing before launch to ISS. The failure rates of these systems have been much greater than predicted and this has caused dissatisfaction with the protoflight approach. The more costly traditional approach builds qualification and test units in addition to flight units. The test units are used to find, analyze, and fix failure modes. Other work shows that there is an optimum cost-effective amount of testing when redundant systems must have a specified reliability and confidence.

Harry W. Jones↗

NASA Physics of Failure (PoF) for Reliability

An item’s reliability or longevity is dependent not only on its design but also on how it is used, manufactured, tested, and the stresses it has or will experience. Stresses include operational and environmental exposures to thermal, voltage, current, age/exposure, mechanical, and radiation mechanisms. Therefore, in reliability analysis, it is important to consider the contributions of all of these factors when predicting the failure rates of components. Historically, there has been a reliance on handbook data (e.g., MIL-HDBK-217), but experience has shown that these values and distributions are not representative of actual performance (1,2). Therefore, to make more credible reliability and risk assessments for its missions, NASA must transition to estimating likelihoods of failure based on an item’s reliability/longevity factors (or the physical susceptibilities and strengths impacting the design’s performance) has or will experience, whenever possible. To facilitate this transition a “Handbook on Methodology for Physics of Failure Based Reliability Assessments” has been developed by NASA to assist in applying physics experiences or experiment physics for empirical analysis and conceptualized physics exposures or theoretical physics for deterministic analysis, to develop and aggregate realistic likelihoods of failure leading to more credible forecasts of item performance and longevity. In addition, since it is NASA’s intention that this document continues to evolve based on community lessons learned and the introduction of new assessment methodologies, NASA is encouraging and appreciates the contributions of current and future authors to maintain and enhance this handbook and its supporting case studies.

Physics of Failure↗

Comparison Modeling of System Reliability for Future NASA Projects

A National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) supported Reliability, Maintainability, and Availability (RMA) analysis team developed a unique RMA analysis methodology using cut set and importance measure analysis in order to comparison model proposed avionics computing architectures. In this paper we will present this efficient application of the RMA analysis methodology for importance measures that includes Reliability Block Diagram (RED) Analysis, Comparison modeling, Cut Set Analysis, and Importance Measure Analysis. We will also demonstrate that integrating RMA early in the system design process as a key to success by providing a fundamental decision metric supporting design selection. The RMA analysis methodology presented in this paper and applied to the avionics architectures enhances the usual way of predicting the need for redundancy based on failure rates or subject matter expert opinion. Using the REDs and the minimal cut sets, along with the Fussell-Vesely (FV) factors, importance measures are calculated for each functional element in the architectures. This paper presents an application of the FV importance measures and presents an improved methodology for using importance measures in success space (instead of failure space) to compare architectures. These importance measures are used to determine which functional element would be most likely to cause a system failure, thus, quickly identifying the path to increase the overall system reliability by either procuring more reliable functional elements or adding redundancy. This application of the RMA analysis methodology, using RBD analysis, cut set analysis, and the importance measure analysis, allows the avionics design team to better understand and compare the vulnerabilities in each of the architectures, enabling them to address the deficiencies in the design architectures more efficiently, while balancing the need to design for optimum weight and space allocations.

Gillespie, Amanda M.↗

AC and DC Fault Management for Megawatt Electrified Aircraft Electrical Powertrains Task 3: Lifetime and Reliability of Electrical Insulators

This research project was a collaborative investigation between researchers at the RTX Technology Research Center (RTRC) and the University of Texas at Austin and made a significant contribution to enabling electric aircraft. The transport of electric power between the points of generation and use requires power cables. These cables must be smaller, lighter and provide a more predictable life than power cables used in stationary applications. Consequently, this investigation provided heretofore unavailable information supporting the safety and reliability of smaller lighter power cables for electrified aircraft. In addition, the research identified key additional engineering data needed to support quantitative reliability assessments. Important advances included: • Demonstrated that at least one manufacturer can make a novel, smaller, lighter power cable that is free from serious defects. • Developed and published an appropriate analytical construct to describe the life of this novel cable. This is a necessary step for use in aviation where the understanding of remaining life is critical. • Demonstrated thermal-mechanical aging that suggested 1000+ flights before the thermal-mechanical processes produced defects large enough that the defect growth was accelerated electrically. • Showed that electrical aging took place at two rates. The first possibly lasting weeks to months and the second possibly days to weeks. If robust, this provides a good diagnostic for cable replacement. • Demonstrated that the traditional electrical testing of cable materials using manufactured voids can be misleading due to the size of the voids. Emerging laser drilling technology permitted demonstration that the physics of failure in realistically small voids is different from that in the unrealistically large voids used in earlier research, which is very important for high-quality, high-performance, small aircraft cables. Although this project represents a significant contribution to the specifics of cable aging in the aircraft environment, important additional research remains to be completed, including: • Non-uniform thermal cycling by applying the heat from the center conductor to maximize thermal stress next to the core area where the electric gradient is the strongest. This builds on the uniform thermal cycling that has been completed. • The augmentation of the thermal-mechanical failure rate by electrical processes. Better understanding of these time constants strongly affects the ability to predict life. • Termination design: Terminations provide not only electrical reflection potential, but a location for a series arc fault and an area where ozone can diffuse into the center conductor and negatively affect cable insulation. • The abrasion and ozone resistance of the cable jacket. • Pressure cycling as an accelerant of thermal, mechanical, and/or electrical aging. • Possible methods for online PD detection and offline PD localization

model↗

Probabilistic Analysis of Space Shuttle Body Flap Actuator Ball Bearings

A probabilistic analysis, using the 2-parameter Weibull-Johnson method, was performed on experimental life test data from space shuttle actuator bearings. Experiments were performed on a test rig under simulated conditions to determine the life and failure mechanism of the grease lubricated bearings that support the input shaft of the space shuttle body flap actuators. The failure mechanism was wear that can cause loss of bearing preload. These tests established life and reliability data for both shuttle flight and ground operation. Test data were used to estimate the failure rate and reliability as a function of the number of shuttle missions flown. The Weibull analysis of the test data for a 2-bearing shaft assembly in each body flap actuator established a reliability level of 99.6 percent for a life of 12 missions. A probabilistic system analysis for four shuttles, each of which has four actuators, predicts a single bearing failure in one actuator of one shuttle after 22 missions (a total of 88 missions for a 4-shuttle fleet). This prediction is comparable with actual shuttle flight history in which a single actuator bearing was found to have failed by wear at 20 missions.

Oswald, Fred B.↗

Probabilistic Analysis of Space Shuttle Body Flap Actuator Ball Bearings

A probabilistic analysis, using the 2-parameter Weibull-Johnson method, was performed on experimental life test data from space shuttle actuator bearings. Experiments were performed on a test rig under simulated conditions to determine the life and failure mechanism of the grease lubricated bearings that support the input shaft of the space shuttle body flap actuators. The failure mechanism was wear that can cause loss of bearing preload. These tests established life and reliability data for both shuttle flight and ground operation. Test data were used to estimate the failure rate and reliability as a function of the number of shuttle missions flown. The Weibull analysis of the test data for the four actuators on one shuttle, each with a 2-bearing shaft assembly, established a reliability level of 96.9 percent for a life of 12 missions. A probabilistic system analysis for four shuttles, each of which has four actuators, predicts a single bearing failure in one actuator of one shuttle after 22 missions (a total of 88 missions for a 4-shuttle fleet). This prediction is comparable with actual shuttle flight history in which a single actuator bearing was found to have failed by wear at 20 missions.

Oswald, Fred B.↗

Redundant disk arrays: Reliable, parallel secondary storage

During the past decade, advances in processor and memory technology have given rise to increases in computational performance that far outstrip increases in the performance of secondary storage technology. Coupled with emerging small-disk technology, disk arrays provide the cost, volume, and capacity of current disk subsystems, by leveraging parallelism, many times their performance. Unfortunately, arrays of small disks may have much higher failure rates than the single large disks they replace. Redundant arrays of inexpensive disks (RAID) use simple redundancy schemes to provide high data reliability. The data encoding, performance, and reliability of redundant disk arrays are investigated. Organizing redundant data into a disk array is treated as a coding problem. Among alternatives examined, codes as simple as parity are shown to effectively correct single, self-identifying disk failures.

Gibson, Garth Alan↗

MLEC-Sim: A Simulator for Evaluating Multi-Level Erasure Coding

We present MLEC-Sim, a sophisticated simulator for Multi-Level Erasure Coding (MLEC), developed in approximately 13 KLOC. The simulator is engineered to analyze the impact of various system configurations and erasure coding policies on system durability and network overhead. It supports a comprehensive range of parameters including disk capacity, disk I/O bandwidth, failure rates, network bandwidth, and system scale, accommodating various erasure coding approaches such as Single-Level Erasure Coding (SLEC), Multi-Level Erasure Coding (MLEC), and Local Reconstruction Codes (LRC). MLEC-Sim provides support for multiple chunk placement policies, including clustered parity and declustered parity, and encompasses a variety of repair methods like Repair-ALL, Repair-FCO, Repair-HYB, and Repair-MIN. It is capable of simulating disk failures through a variety of means, including distribution-based or trace-based mechanisms, and can handle complex multi-level (de)clustered placements and repair processes. A key feature of MLEC-Sim is its adoption of the splitting simulation method for evaluating system durabilities at extremely high levels, which are challenging to assess with traditional simulation approaches. This feature allows for a detailed evaluation of system resilience under a range of conditions, aiding in the selection of appropriate erasure coding solutions for enhancing system durability. MLEC-Sim contributes to the field of data storage and reliability by providing a tool for the detailed evaluation of the durability and efficiency of erasure coding configurations, intended for use by researchers and practitioners in the design and optimization of storage systems.

Wang, Meng↗

Granular Materials and Risks in ISRU

Working with soil, sand, powders, ores, cement and sintered bricks, excavating, grading construction sites, driving off-road, transporting granules in chutes and pipes, sifting gravel, separating solids from gases, and using hoppers are so routine that it seems straightforward to execute these operations on the Moon and Mars as we do on Earth. We discuss how little these processes are understood and point out the nature of trial-and-error practices that are used in today s massive over-design. Nevertheless, such designs have a high failure rate. Implementation and extensive incremental scaling up of industrial processes are routine because of the inadequate predictive tools for design. We present a number of pragmatic scenarios where granular materials play a role, the risks involved, what some of the basic issues are, and what understanding is needed to greatly reduce the risks. This talk will focus on a particular class of granular flow issues, those that pertain to dense materials, their physics, and the failure problems associated with them. In particular, key issues where basic predictability is lacking include stability of soils for the support of vehicles and facilities, ability to control the flow of dense materials (jamming and flooding/unjamming at the wrong time), the ability to predict stress profiles (hence create reliable designs) for containers such as bunkers or silos. In particular, stress fluctuations, which are not accounted for in standard granular design models, can be very large as granular materials flows, and one result is frequent catastrophic failure of granular devices.

Behringer, Robert P.↗

Granular Materials and Risks In ISRU

Working with soil, sand, powders, ores, cement and sintered bricks, excavating, grading construction sites, driving off-road, transporting granules in chutes and pipes, sifting gravel, separating solids from gases, and using hoppers are so routine that it seems straightforward to execute these operations on the Moon and Mars as we do on Earth. We discuss how little these processes are understood and point out the nature of trial-and-error practices that are used in today's massive over-design. Nevertheless, such designs have a high failure rate. Implementation and extensive incremental scaling up of industrial processes are routine because of the inadequate predictive tools for design. We present a number of pragmatic scenarios where granular materials play a role, the risks involved, what some of the basic issues are, and what understanding is needed to greatly reduce the risks. This talk will focus on a particular class of granular flow issues, those that pertain to dense materials, their physics, and the failure problems associated with them. In particular, key issues where basic predictability is lacking include stability of soils for the support of vehicles and facilities, ability to control the flow of dense materials (jamming and flooding/unjamming at the wrong time), the ability to predict stress profiles (hence create reliable designs) for containers such as bunkers or silos. In particular, stress fluctuations, which are not accounted for in standard granular design models, can be very large as granular materials flows, and one result is frequent catastrophic failure of granular devices.

Behringer, Robert P.↗

Space Shuttle Main Engine Quantitative Risk Assessment: Illustrating Modeling of a Complex System with a New QRA Software Package

During 1997, a team from Hernandez Engineering, MSFC, Rocketdyne, Thiokol, Pratt & Whitney, and USBI completed the first phase of a two year Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of the Space Shuttle. The models for the Shuttle systems were entered and analyzed by a new QRA software package. This system, termed the Quantitative Risk Assessment System(QRAS), was designed by NASA and programmed by the University of Maryland. The software is a groundbreaking PC-based risk assessment package that allows the user to model complex systems in a hierarchical fashion. Features of the software include the ability to easily select quantifications of failure modes, draw Event Sequence Diagrams(ESDs) interactively, perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and document the modeling. This paper illustrates both the approach used in modeling and the particular features of the software package. The software is general and can be used in a QRA of any complex engineered system. The author is the project lead for the modeling of the Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSMEs), and this paper focuses on the modeling completed for the SSMEs during 1997. In particular, the groundrules for the study, the databases used, the way in which ESDs were used to model catastrophic failure of the SSMES, the methods used to quantify the failure rates, and how QRAS was used in the modeling effort are discussed. Groundrules were necessary to limit the scope of such a complex study, especially with regard to a liquid rocket engine such as the SSME, which can be shut down after ignition either on the pad or in flight. The SSME was divided into its constituent components and subsystems. These were ranked on the basis of the possibility of being upgraded and risk of catastrophic failure. Once this was done the Shuttle program Hazard Analysis and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) were used to create a list of potential failure modes to be modeled. The groundrules and other criteria were used to screen out the many failure modes that did not contribute significantly to the catastrophic risk. The Hazard Analysis and FMEA for the SSME were also used to build ESDs that show the chain of events leading from the failure mode occurence to one of the following end states: catastrophic failure, engine shutdown, or siccessful operation( successful with respect to the failure mode under consideration).

Smart, Christian↗

Phased-mission system analysis using Boolean algebraic methods

Most reliability analysis techniques and tools assume that a system is used for a mission consisting of a single phase. However, multiple phases are natural in many missions. The failure rates of components, system configuration, and success criteria may vary from phase to phase. In addition, the duration of a phase may be deterministic or random. Recently, several researchers have addressed the problem of reliability analysis of such systems using a variety of methods. A new technique for phased-mission system reliability analysis based on Boolean algebraic methods is described. Our technique is computationally efficient and is applicable to a large class of systems for which the failure criterion in each phase can be expressed as a fault tree (or an equivalent representation). Our technique avoids state space explosion that commonly plague Markov chain-based analysis. A phase algebra to account for the effects of variable configurations and success criteria from phase to phase was developed. Our technique yields exact (as opposed to approximate) results. The use of our technique was demonstrated by means of an example and present numerical results to show the effects of mission phases on the system reliability.

Somani, Arun K.↗

Effect of Transverse Compression on the Dielectric Breakdown of Power Cable with Ethylene Propylene Rubber Insulation

Understanding of the failure mechanisms of submarine dynamic power cables (SDPC) is critical for innovative design to meet the 2035 cost reduction target of U.S. DOE Floating Offshore Wind Shot. This is important because the current design suffers a significant failure rate in the field. This project explored a multiphysics approach and conducted systematic electro-thermo-mechanical (ETM) experimental study on the power cores extracted from a 15 kV power cable. The power cable had three cores of copper conductor and ethylene propylene rubber (EPR) insulation. An ETM testing system with transverse compression capability was developed. Mechanical loading induced dielectric breakdown. Increasing temperature from room temperature (RT, 22 degrees Celsius) to 90 degrees Celsius resulted in the 67% decrease in the failure mechanical load as defined by the dielectric breakdown. With the same temperature rise, the creep mechanical load was reduced by 70% at a given dielectric breakdown time. The post-test measurement revealed an impressive recovery of electrical resistance, although the dielectric breakdown occurred in the ETM test that would not be captured without the use of ETM testing.

Wang, Hong [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000201730545)↗

Endogenous Microbial Survival in Brewed Tea

Loose-leaf bagged tea is a commonly requested beverage item that comprises up to 7% of the microbiological samples from the space food systems. As loose-leaf tea blends often contain herbs and spices that frequently have high microbial loads, they have a high failure rate as defined by the microbiological standards outlined in NASA-STD-3001, which are more stringent than the limits set for industry. Between April 2019 and September 2022, 54.8% of loose-leaf teas submitted for microbiological testing have failed, necessitating the evaluation of a variety of brands and lot numbers of each requested tea type to meet crew preference requests, which are typically specific, resulting in excess labor and material costs to provide a single product for spaceflight consumption. Attempts to identify specific brands or ingredients that are less likely to produce a failure have been unsuccessful, as to date, no trends in those measures have been identified. We have, however, noticed a trend in types of teas (spiced and herbal) which are more likely to fail. Of additional concern, hot water available for brewing tea on ISS is dispensed at a lower temperature than the CDC recommended brewing temperature. In a study we previously reported, we found that that brewing water temperature may not have a significant impact on the number of aerobic bacteria in chamomile tea, as there were no significant differences in the total microbial load between tea brewed with boiling, ISS-like, or room temperature waters. It did appear that ISS temperature water was similarly effective to boiling water against a pathogenic bacterial species. In this study, we aim to assess whether the total number of aerobic bacteria of other high-fail-rate tea types is similarly unaffected when brewing tea in room temperature or boiling water. Data from this study and the previous study, as well as additional analysis of every tea product that has been tested as part of the normal food system since April 2019, will be used to determine the expected typical microbial load for loose-leaf teas, which we will compare to existing industry limits so that we can recommend a new microbiological limit for loose-leaf teas that accurately reflects the true risk of consuming brewed teas in spaceflight.

space flight food↗

Electro-Thermo-Mechanical (ETM) Study on Submarine Dynamic Power Cables (SDPC) for Offshore Wind Transmission

Understanding the failure mechanisms of submarine dynamic power cables (SDPC) is critical for innovative design to meet the 2035 cost reduction target of U.S. DOE Floating Offshore Wind Shot. This is important because the current design suffers a significant failure rate in the field. This project conducted a systematic electro-thermo-mechanical (ETM) experimental study on the power cores extracted from a 15kV power cable with three cores of copper conductor, ethylene propylene rubber (EPR) insulation, and continuously corrugated welded aluminum armor (CCWA). An ETM testing system was developed by integrating a high voltage (HV) amplifier, two ceramic heaters, and a rod-plate transverse compression setup into a mechanical testing machine. Increasing temperature from room temperature (RT, 22 degree C) to 90 degree C resulted in the 67% decrease in the failure mechanical load as defined by the dielectric breakdown. Under creep mechanical loading, the dielectric breakdown time was decreased by 70% for a given mechanical load when the specimen temperature increased from RT to 90oC. The failure strain in both monotonic and creep mechanical loading modes was related to the maximum mechanical load applied. Although the dielectric breakdown occurred in the ETM test, the post-test measurement revealed an impressive recovery of electric resistance. The failure analysis on cross section of tested specimens indicated a sizable gap across insulation layer near the area between copper conductor and loading rod, which apparently resulted from online dielectric failure and offline elastic recovery of components including conductor and insulation layer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Software models: A Bayesian approach to parameter estimation in the Jelenski-Moranda software reliability model

Maximum likelihood estimation procedures for the Jelinski-Moranda software reliability model often give misleading answers. A reparameterization and a Bayesian analysis eliminate some of the problems incurred by MLE methods and often give better predictions on sets of real and simulated data. Practical difficulties in estimating the initial number of errors N and the failure rate of each error phi by the method of maximum likelihood are: N, the MLE of N, is occasionally infinite (i.e., the routines for calculating N and phi do not converge). It is shown that N is finite sub i only if the regression line of the interevent times t sub i vs. i has positive slope. A serious problem is that often N approximates n, the sample size, and sometimes N = n. Thus the MLE predicts that the program is perfect even when it is far from being so. Only when almost all failures have been removed can N and phi be trusted near the end of debugging.

Littlewood, B.↗

Accelerated Aging Experiments for Capacitor Health Monitoring and Prognostics

This paper discusses experimental setups for health monitoring and prognostics of electrolytic capacitors under nominal operation and accelerated aging conditions. Electrolytic capacitors have higher failure rates than other components in electronic systems like power drives, power converters etc. Our current work focuses on developing first-principles-based degradation models for electrolytic capacitors under varying electrical and thermal stress conditions. Prognostics and health management for electronic systems aims to predict the onset of faults, study causes for system degradation, and accurately compute remaining useful life. Accelerated life test methods are often used in prognostics research as a way to model multiple causes and assess the effects of the degradation process through time. It also allows for the identification and study of different failure mechanisms and their relationships under different operating conditions. Experiments are designed for aging of the capacitors such that the degradation pattern induced by the aging can be monitored and analyzed. Experimental setups and data collection methods are presented to demonstrate this approach.

Prognostics of Electronics↗

Oxygen Storage Tanks Are Feasible for Mars Transit

The Mars transit tanks will probably be titanium lined, composite over wrapped pressure vessels (COPVs) similar to those used in the space shuttle and International Space Station(ISS). Since the mass of a storage tank is proportional to the mass of the gas it contains, the required oxygen will use about the same mass of tanks regardless of the number and size ofthe tanks. Using existing relatively small COPVs is possible. Pressure vessels can fail due torupture and leakage but no failures have occurred in space and the expected failure rates are very low. Since one or two spare tanks are required for reliability, using smaller tanks can reduce the total mass. For a Mars round trip, the mass of oxygen and tanks including spares is roughly equal to the mass of the ISS Oxygen Generation Assembly (OGA) and its spares. Since the OGA must orbit Mars and be returned to Earth, while half the storage tanks are emptied on the way to Mars and can be abandoned, storage tanks have a significant launch mass advantage over the OGA. Storage tanks are simpler, more reliable,and have fewer failure modes than an OGA. They would have smaller design and development costs and need less crew time and maintenance. Oxygen storage tanks are feasible for Mars transit and are attractive compared to the ISS OGA.

Jones, Harry W.↗