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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Local and General Patterns of Terrestrial Water‐Carbon Coupling

Abstract Terrestrial carbon uptake and water availability have coupled feedbacks; specifically water uptake for plant growth and soil drying via transpiration. While we might expect this coupling over time at arid sites, climatic water availability also widely covaries geographically with biomass variables that control photosynthetic rates. Using eddy covariance data globally, we find convex, positively‐covarying relations between carbon uptake and a turbulent flux metric controlled by land surface moisture (r = 0.73 monthly across sites) at the site level. We estimate a general, empirical relationship based on site‐wise water‐carbon dynamics. Most sites, and the general relationship, show strong power‐law dependence, implicating the role of sub‐seasonal land‐cover dynamics. We also find that long‐term mean carbon/water states follow a similar convex relationship to the site‐specific temporal dynamics. We discuss opportunities and caveats for space‐for‐time frameworks of carbon/water feedback processes globally.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development and Validation of Smart Building Technology Modules for Academic and Professional Education (Final Technical Report)

Smart building technologies can improve building energy efficiency and resilience, reduce carbon emissions, and provide load flexibility to the grid. However, in both college curricula and building professionals’ continuing education, there is a lack of systematic instruction on smart building technologies. Slipstream, partnering with Texas A&M University (TAMU), the Society of Building Science Educators (SBSE), and the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS), developed a semester-long smart building curriculum for college students and 16 training videos for building professionals and the general public. The education and training cover the drivers and benefits of smart building technologies, key building energy systems, the latest sensor technologies and IoT devices, and focus on topics related to smart building controls (i.e., energy management information systems, smart building control platforms, cybersecurity, grid-interactive-efficient buildings [GEBs], smart building control methods, and occupant-centric control). The smart building curriculum for college students was taught at TAMU in the Spring semester of 2024 as part of the validation process. Student feedback was collected and summarized in a validation report by TAMU. The curriculum material was also reviewed by SBSE faculty who are interested in teaching smart building technology-related courses. Suggestions on revisions and better adoption of the materials by other faculty across the architectural, engineering, and construction (AEC) domains were compiled in a distinct validation report by SBSE. The SBSE validation report was used to create structured subsets of the curriculum material for adoption at different levels in different sub-disciplines. These subsets are categorized and offered on the SBSE website (https://www.sbse.org/courses/Smart-Building-Technologies). The 16 training videos for building professionals and the general public were previewed by 17 industry experts, and feedback and suggested changes were incorporated into the final version of these videos. The videos are organized into a smart building technology training course and published on the Whole Building Design Guide website (https://www.wbdg.org/ce/doe/bto/sbtt), which is hosted by the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS). Project team members created marketing materials to promote the awareness of these free, publicly available education and training resources. Outreach and marketing activities included creating short promotional videos, building project webpages, making project announcements on social media, conducting an email campaign, and directly reaching out to faculties and building professionals. This report describes the project approach, provides outlines of the training materials, along with links to resources, and identifies lessons learned in creating the content. We also suggest ways to scale the instruction of smart building concepts to empower the workforce to accelerate the adoption of smart building technologies in the real world.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Virtual Reality for Shoot/No-Shoot Decision Training in Law Enforcement: A Literature Review and Research Agenda

Virtual reality (VR) can materially improve “shoot / no-shoot” (SNS) training by giving officers realistic, repeatable practice making high-stakes decisions under pressure. Traditional tools—live-fire ranges and video simulators—build basics, but they cannot adapt to each officer in real time or fully mirror the complexity of the field. VR closes that gap by creating immersive scenarios that are safer, more flexible, easier to scale across units, and able to capture objective performance data. SNS decisions are not just about marksmanship; they rely on perception, judgment, memory, and the ability to hold fire when a threat is uncertain. Effective training therefore needs realism, decision complexity, and branching outcomes that reflect the true consequences of choices. These elements strengthen recognition of hostile intent while reducing false positives and building the self-control required in ambiguous situations. VR brings specific advantages: dynamic environments, full-body interaction, and the ability to measure performance with precision—enabling targeted feedback and better transfer of learning to the street. At the same time, responsible deployment must address scenario quality (credible environments and behaviors), lawful decision models, and user wellbeing (appropriate stress levels, comfort, and safety). Sandia’s VIPER Lab is positioned to lead this work. The team combines human-performance science, AI/ML, and VR/AR development with a deep equipment bench (e.g., omnidirectional treadmill, eye-tracking, haptics, multiple HMDs). This ecosystem supports building and validating next-generation SNS training that is immersive, measurable, and trustworthy. Bottom line: Investment in VR-enabled SNS training that blends evidence-based design with careful validation and legal safeguards is expected to pay off in safer, more consistent decision-making and improved community trust, delivered through training that is practical to deploy at scale.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

Employing MACS/ViBRANT as a Surrogate MARVEL Reactor for Startup Reactivity Tuning and Supervisory Control Processes

Advanced nuclear reactors are a key part of the future of nuclear energy both in the United States and globally. They offer unique benefits for various energy-demanding applications, including use in remote locations, compact size, modular manufacturing, remote monitoring, low and/or variable power rating operation, and reliance on novel technologies to enhance operational safety. To achieve economic feasibility, advanced reactors must significantly reduce their workforces in comparison with the current fleet. Achieving this reduction will occur through reducing staff workloads using technology to achieve autonomous or semi-autonomous operations, demonstrated by comprehensive testing and validation activities. These operations will require both software and hardware platforms during the design and testing phases. While simulations are useful during the design phase, their performance can significantly deviate during actual deployment on hardware. This report presents the outcomes of a collaborative technical initiative between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Microreactor Program (MRP) and Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation (ASI) Program. The collaboration utilized the Microreactor Automated Control System (MACS) hardware platform to bridge the gap between theoretical reactor design and actual startup and control operations. Two key use cases were investigated: facilitating the startup testing period and demonstrating supervisory control. The first use case details the key Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) reactor startup physics testing activities conducted using the MACS platform. These activities included drum worth measurements, shutdown margin assessment, temperature feedback analysis, and scram time evaluation, as well as unique testing that would apply to the MARVEL reactor to demonstrate the testing methodologies in a low-risk environment. The MACS platform, serving as a surrogate representation of the MARVEL reactor, proved instrumental in performing these tests. The exercise revealed aspects that led to optimized processes, refined hardware design, and enhanced base software capabilities. By maturing methods and technologies in this manner, the initiative promises to reduce wasted time in the actual on-site reactor deployment effort, thereby saving significant time and resources. The second use case focuses on the development and implementation of supervisory control methods aimed at managing core tilt, which can result from asymmetrical operations or manufacturing imperfections in fuel rods or reactivity control devices. A key objective was to assess and compare the use of artificial intelligence (AI) for supervisory control. The effort aimed to define the role of supervisory control to enhance performance without risking control instability. This effort explored three distinct approaches: rules-based (RB) methods, optimization techniques, and reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. Each approach was evaluated for its ease of implementation, its usability, and its effectiveness in responding to asymmetries in neutron flux. Comparative analysis of these approaches provided valuable insights into their applicability and effectiveness, offering a robust framework for advanced reactor operations. Together, these two use cases highlight the potential of hardware test beds to help streamline the design, operation, and control of advanced nuclear reactors. This collaborative effort underscores the importance of continued innovation and experimentation in achieving the next generation of safe, reliable, and economically viable nuclear energy solutions.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Groundwater Level Fluctuations Drive Subsurface Redox Variability

As global change processes modify the extent and functions of terrestrial-aquatic interfaces, the variability of critical and dynamic transitional zones between wetlands and uplands increases. However, it is still unclear how fluctuating water levels at these dynamic boundaries alter groundwater biogeochemical cycling. Here, we used high-temporal resolution data along gradients from wetlands to uplands and during fluctuating water levels at freshwater coastal areas to capture spatiotemporal patterns of groundwater redox potential (E h ). We observed that topography influences groundwater E h that is higher in uplands than wetlands; however, the high variability within TAI zones challenged the establishment of distinct redox zonation. Declining water levels generally decreased E h , but most locations exhibited significant E h variability, which is associated with rare instances of short-term water level fluctuations introducing oxygen. The E h -oxygen relationship showed distinct hysteresis patterns, reflecting redox poising capacity at higher E h , maintaining more oxidizing states longer than dissolved oxygen presence. Surprisingly, we observed more frequent oxidizing states in transitional areas and wetlands than in uplands. We infer that occasional oxygen entering specific wetland-upland boundaries acts as critical biogeochemical control points. Finally, high-resolution data can capture such rare yet significant biogeochemical instances, supporting redox-informed models and advancing the predictability of climate change feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Control Room of the Future Testbed Workshop – After-Action Report

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity is supporting a one-year, multi-laboratory effort to define the needs and requirements for a Control Room of the Future testbed, or CROFT. The effort responds to increasing grid complexity driven by large new loads, dynamic generation resources, and the growing adoption of advanced technologies and tools, including artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML). To support safe, secure, and effective grid modernization, CROFT will focus on how emerging technologies and tools can be rigorously evaluated in realistic operational settings, with attention to human-machine interaction, cognitive load, and workforce readiness. The project team includes Argonne National Laboratory, Idaho National Laboratory, National Laboratory of the Rockies, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. As part of the scoping effort, the team conducted two industry-focused workshops: one at DTECH on February 5, 2026, informed by prior industry interviews, and a second on May 4, 2026, adjacent to IEEE T&D. These engagements brought together utilities, vendors, consultants, national laboratories, academia, and government stakeholders to identify and prioritize use cases, barriers, validation needs, data-sharing constraints, and near- and longer-term requirements. This feedback will directly inform CROFT’s architecture and research focus areas, ensuring the testbed is grounded in real-world operational needs and designed to evaluate emerging technologies and tools in realistic control-room environments.

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment and validation of NEAMS tools for high-fidelity multiphysics transient modeling of microreactors: Application of NEAMS codes to perform multiphysics modeling analyses of micro-reactor concepts

The NEAMS Multiphysics Applications team aims at providing assessment of code useability and functionality for microreactor design and analyses, together with demonstration of their capabilities to properly capture the steady-state and time-dependent behavior of different microreactor concepts. In FY-24, significant progress was achieved in improving multi-physics models of several microreactors systems: HP-MR, GC-MR and KRUSTY. These efforts focused on solving more complex multiphysics problems enabled by enhanced tools capability, verifying and validating results obtained, providing feedback to developers for suggested improvements, and sharing these models to facilitate user training. A series of new multiphysics transients were completed on the HP-MR (using Griffin/BISON/Sockeye) with core startup transient, control drum inadvertent rotation accident, and hydrogen leakage from hydride moderator (also including SWIFT). On the GC-MR, a new full-core model was developed and analyzed through a series of new multiphysics (Griffin/BISON/SAM) transients to simulate moderator leakage (also including SWIFT), flow blockage and coolant depressurization. Additional and updated TRISO failure analyses were completed on the HP-MR unit-cell and GC-MR assembly models leveraging improved TRISO modeling capabilities. The amount of SiC failure following accidental transients at end-of-life was null. However, GC-MR assembly TRISO analysis highlighted Pd penetration rate can be problematic and may require design changes on the studied microreactor concept. The neutronics discrepancies observed on the KRUSTY model in previous years were resolved using hybrid set of Monte Carlo/Deterministic cross-sections. The multiphysics (Griffin neutronics / BISON thermal-mechanics) 15₵ insertion transient simulation displayed good agreement when comparing with experimental data. Initial modeling of the 30 ₵ reactivity insertion also displays promising results. Such close agreement provides important validation data that can be leveraged by the NEAMS program and by microreactor vendors to support licensing of their technology. Finally, important experience was gathered with the NEAMS tools leading to several user feedback shared with tools developers, especially with regards to MOOSE mesh generator and Griffin. This project led to many publications demonstrating modeling capabilities, and to three models shared on the Virtual Test Bed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning approaches for intentional materials engineering

In this article, the development of nanoporous metals and metallic composites through dealloying processes presents significant opportunities in materials engineering. However, designing multicomponent precursor alloys and establishing corresponding processing methods that yield predictable compositions and nanostructures remain a complex challenge. This article explores how machine learning (ML)-augmented computational and experimental methodologies can tackle these challenges by predicting precursor alloy compositions, final nanoporous structures, and mechanical properties, while integrating ML-enabled autonomous experimentation for material design and quantification. We highlight recent advancements in applying ML to nanostructured materials design via dealloying and discuss how techniques from other nanomaterial designs can be adapted for improved control over morphological and compositional outcomes in nanoporous and nanocomposite materials. Furthermore, we explore the role of ML in autonomous synchrotron x-ray experimentation, enabling real-time feedback between modeling and experimental setups. ML-driven approaches to microstructure characterization and mechanical property prediction are also examined, with a focus on modeling and advanced imaging techniques such as three-dimensional nanotomography. Finally, this article outlines future directions for ML-enhanced materials science, emphasizing the exploration of high-dimensional parameter spaces and the incorporation of materials kinetics into processing and property evaluation, ultimately advancing the design of nanoporous structures and materials science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transverse emittance growth due to rf noise in crab cavities: Theory, measurements, cure, and high luminosity LHC estimates

The High-Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) upgrade with planned operation from 2029 onward has a goal of achieving a tenfold increase in the integrated number of recorded collisions thanks to a doubling of the intensity per bunch ( 2.2 × 10 11 protons) and a reduction of β * (the β value in the two high luminosity detectors, namely ATLAS and CMS) to 15 cm. Such an increase in recorded collisions would significantly expedite new discoveries and exploration. Crab cavities are an important component of the HL-LHC upgrade and will contribute strongly to achieving an increase in the number of recorded collisions. However, noise injected through the crab cavity radio frequency (rf) system could cause significant transverse emittance growth and limit luminosity lifetime. We presented a theoretical formalism relating transverse emittance growth to rf noise in an earlier work. In this follow-up paper, we summarize measurements in the super-proton synchrotron (SPS) at CERN that validate the theory, we present estimates of the emittance growth rates using state-of-the-art rf and low-level rf (LLRF) technologies, and we set the rf noise specifications to achieve acceptable performance. A novel dedicated feedback system acting through the crab cavities to mitigate emittance growth will be required. In this work, we develop a theoretical formalism to evaluate the performance of such a feedback system in any collider, identify limiting components, present simulation results to validate these studies, and derive key design parameters for an HL-LHC implementation of such a feedback system. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulation of a High-Confinement Tidal Energy Array (Abstract)

When the projected area of a current turbine array occupies a substantial fraction of a tidal or river channel cross-sectional area, the confinement associated with the channel boundaries substantially increases turbine efficiency. This effect can be exploited to substantially reduce the levelized cost of energy for current turbine arrays. However, the presence of such an array will affect inflow velocity, water depth, and circulation in the surrounding area. This has implications for array performance and environmental impacts. This project combines existing numerical modeling capability from PNNL with an understanding of confined array performance from UW. The work will 1) Simulate tidal currents and water surface elevation in a regional circulation model that includes the Knik Arm site at appropriate resolution; 2) Incorporate a varying thrust coefficient into this model that reflects the outcomes of tidal hydrodynamic simulations of confined turbine arrays; 3) Use the model to determine the effects of array operation on water levels and inflow conditions as a function of different blockage ratios and control strategies; and 4) Identify the “far field” environmental implications of operating an array of this type. UW will use the outputs from this model to evaluate the implications of “feedback effects” and variable inflow conditions on levelized cost of energy estimates for a confinement exploiting array of cross-flow turbines.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

The oleaginous yeast Rhodosporidium toruloides engineered for biomass hydrolysate-derived (E)-α-bisabolene production

The oleaginous yeast Rhodosporidium toruloides has been exploited for many bioproducts, including several terpenes, owing to its oleaginous nature and biomass inhibitor tolerance. Here, we built upon previous (E)-a-bisabolene work by iteratively stacking the complete mevalonate pathway from Saccharomyces cerevisiae onto a multicopy bisabolene synthase parent strain. Metabolomics and proteomics verified heterologous pathway expression and identified metabolic bottlenecks at three intermediate steps, with candidate feedback-resistant mevalonate kinases screening improving titers 15%. Subtle differences in codon optimization, and preliminary attenuation of competing flux toward lipids resulted in 6-fold, 7-fold higher titers relative to controls, respectively. Media optimization led to modest improvements, with zinc identified as the most promising at 10% titer improvement. Ultimately, high-performance strains were cultivated with corn-stover biomass hydrolysate in microtiter plates at 300g/L total sugar, achieving 20.8g/L bisabolene, the highest reported titer in the literature. A 2L glucose minimal medium bioreactor achieved 19.3 g/L bisabolene and a literature-high productivity of 0.11 g/L/h.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Insights and Impacts of Credentials: Energy Auditor, Quality Control Inspector, and Certification Updates

Join this session to learn about recent and upcoming Home Energy Professional credential and resource updates from the National Renewable Laboratory (NREL) in support of the U.S. Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). NREL staff will provide an in-depth overview of improvements to the EA and QCI certification schemes. Be prepared to provide feedback and share new ideas in pursuit of continuous improvement within WAP. These certifications are critical to ensuring the highest standards of quality, safety, and efficiency within the Weatherization Assistance Program, helping to elevate the skills of professionals and drive the program's overall success.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pointing stabilization of a 1 Hz high-power laser via machine learning

Abstract High-power lasers are vital for particle acceleration, imaging, fusion and materials processing, requiring precise control and high-energy delivery. Laser plasma accelerators (LPAs) demand laser positional stability at focus to ensure consistent electron beams in applications such as X-ray free-electron lasers and high-energy colliders. Achieving this stability is especially challenging for the low-repetition-rate lasers in current LPAs. We present a machine learning method that predicts and corrects laser pointing instabilities in real-time using a high-frequency pilot beam. By preemptively adjusting a correction mirror, this approach overcomes traditional feedback limits. Demonstrated on the BELLA petawatt laser operating at the terawatt level (30 mJ amplification), our method achieved root mean square pointing stabilization of 0.34 and 0.59 $\unicode{x3bc} \mathrm{rad}$ in the x and y directions, reducing jitter by 65% and 47%, respectively. This is the first successful application of predictive control for shot-to-shot stabilization in low-repetition-rate laser systems, paving the way for full-energy petawatt lasers and transformative advances across science, industry and security.

Amodio, Alessio↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intrinsic optical bistability of photon avalanching nanocrystals

Optically bistable materials respond to a single input with two possible optical outputs, contingent on excitation history. Such materials would be ideal for optical switching and memory, but the limited understanding of intrinsic optical bistability (IOB) prevents the development of nanoscale IOB materials suitable for devices. Here we demonstrate IOB in Nd 3+ -doped KPb 2 Cl 5 avalanching nanoparticles, which switch with high contrast between luminescent and non-luminescent states, with hysteresis characteristic of bistability. Here we elucidate a non-thermal mechanism in which IOB originates from suppressed non-radiative relaxation in Nd 3+ ions and from the positive feedback of photon avalanching, resulting in extreme, >200th-order optical nonlinearities. The modulation of laser pulsing tunes the hysteresis widths, and dual-laser excitation enables transistor-like optical switching. This control over nanoscale IOB establishes avalanching nanoparticles for photonic devices in which light is used to manipulate light.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Raspberry Pi–powered temperature monitoring of growth chamber microclimates

While controlled environments are desirable for growing and measuring plants, growth chambers and greenhouses typically have microclimates that impact plant growth, development, and stress responses. Furthermore, opening and closing the doors of a controlled environment introduces variation in the environment, especially at temperature extremes, affecting both the measurements and the organisms within. Using multiple temperature data loggers to normalize results can be cost-prohibitive and rarely offers real-time feedback on temperature status. We used low-cost single-board computers, cameras, and temperature sensors to manage and capture growth chamber temperatures while acquiring plant image data. Detailed here are methods to document microclimates within a growth chamber so that data can be normalized to measured temperature information. This protocol describes a low-cost method for automated temperature monitoring, which enables both high-throughput measurements of temperature along with plant growth and stress responses via plant imaging.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Panama Rainforest Changes with Experimental Drought (PaRChED): Initial Effects of Partial Throughfall Exclusion on Soil Dynamics in Lowland Forests Across Variation in Rainfall and Soil Fertility

Changes in rainfall are predicted across tropical regions, with effects on nutrient, water, and carbon cycling. This chapter summarizes results from the first two years of a throughfall exclusion experiment in four lowland Panamanian forests that span a 1,000-mm change in rainfall and variation in soil fertility. Soil respiration (i.e., soil carbon dioxide [CO2 ] flux) declined with throughfall exclusion, with a site*season interaction, and the radiocarbon age of respired carbon was older in exclusion versus control plots. The decline in soil CO2 flux could be related to reduced fine root production and soil microbial biomass. Microbial community composition also changed with throughfall exclusion in infertile soils, and soil nutrients accumulated more in exclusion versus control plots during the dry season. The net effects on soil carbon storage will depend on the relative strengths of these effects over time. Continued research could improve predictions of tropical forest-climate feedbacks with changes in precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Transmission Technologies –GETs and HPCs Session 3: HPCs and Building Actions Plans to Digital Assurance Risks

The third session of the Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Technical Assistance for Digital Assurance (TADA) program, held on November 11, 2025, centered on High Performance Conductors (HPCs) and the formulation of action plans to address digital assurance risks associated with Grid-Enhancing Technologies (GETs). This session convened experts from utilities, vendors, and government agencies to examine the technical, operational, and cybersecurity aspects of HPC deployment. Discussions highlighted the benefits of HPCs, such as their ability to rapidly increase transmission capacity using existing corridors, improve grid resilience, reduce system losses, and align with FERC Orders 2023 and 1920. Participants evaluated supply chain and digital assurance risks, including reliance on imported materials, limited domestic manufacturing capacity, workforce shortages, and traceability issues. The session also emphasized the importance of digital trust, integration-layer cybersecurity, and unified risk frameworks, introducing tools like intrusion detection systems, encryption, zero trust networking, and firmware integrity. Recaps of earlier workshops on Dynamic Line Ratings (DLRs), Advanced Power Flow Control (APFC), and Transmission Topology Optimization (TTO) underscored institutional barriers and integration challenges. Action plans were proposed to mitigate issues such as inconsistent cybersecurity practices, SBOM usage, supply chain visibility, operator trust, and misaligned incentives. Additionally, INL presented its supply chain risk management tools and Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles to support secure procurement and system design. The session concluded with a commitment to share key takeaways, incorporate cohort feedback into future policy development, and continue collaborative engagement through upcoming pilot activities. Session 3 of 3.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Shortwave Cloud-SST Feedback Amplifies Multi-Decadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends: Implications for Observed Cooling

Climate models struggle to produce sea surface temperature (SST) gradient trends in the tropical Pacific comparable to those seen recently in nature. Here, we find that the magnitude of the cloud-SST feedback in the subtropical Southeast Pacific is correlated across models with the magnitude of Eastern Pacific multi-decadal SST variability. A heat-budget analysis reveals coupling between cloud-radiative effects, circulation, and SST gradients in driving multi-decadal variability in the Eastern Pacific. Using this relationship and observed feedback estimates, we find that internal Eastern Pacific SST variability is underestimated in most models. Adjusting for model bias increases the likelihood of generating a cooling trend at least as large as observations in preindustrial control simulations by ~56% on average. If models underestimate climate “noise,” as our results suggest, this bias should be accounted for when attributing the relative importance of forced versus unforced changes in the climate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗