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At least 217 records · Page 12

Space flight risk data collection and analysis project: Risk and reliability database

The focus of the NASA 'Space Flight Risk Data Collection and Analysis' project was to acquire and evaluate space flight data with the express purpose of establishing a database containing measurements of specific risk assessment - reliability - availability - maintainability - supportability (RRAMS) parameters. The developed comprehensive RRAMS database will support the performance of future NASA and aerospace industry risk and reliability studies. One of the primary goals has been to acquire unprocessed information relating to the reliability and availability of launch vehicles and the subsystems and components thereof from the 45th Space Wing (formerly Eastern Space and Missile Command -ESMC) at Patrick Air Force Base. After evaluating and analyzing this information, it was encoded in terms of parameters pertinent to ascertaining reliability and availability statistics, and then assembled into an appropriate database structure.

Source record↗

Efficiency of a radiophotoluminescence glass dosemeter for low-earth-orbit space radiation

Chips of a radiophotoluminescence glass dosemeter (RPLG) were used for measurements of space radiation during a 9.8 d Shuttle-Mir mission (STS-91) at an altitude of 400 km and an inclination of 51.65 degrees. Two of RPLG chips were put into each of 59 positions in or on a life-size human phantom. The RPLG values equivalent to 137Cs gamma ray absorbed doses were found to be systematically lower than those of a Mg2SiO4:Tb thermoluminescence dosemeter (TDMS). In comparison with the organ or tissue absorbed dose and dose equivalent values that were estimated using a combination of TDMS and plastic nuclear track detectors, the efficiencies of the RPLG chips were about 80% for the water absorbed dose and about 40% for the dose equivalent. Whereas the percentage values will change during different missions, such additional information obtained from small RPLG chips is useful for improving the reliability of radiation dosimetry in space.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Non-NASA Center↗

Hazard Analysis for Pneumatic Flipper Suitport/Z-1 Manned Evaluation, Chamber B, Building 32

One of the characteristics of an effective safety program is the recognition and control of hazards before mishaps or failures occur. Conducting potentially hazardous tests necessitates a thorough hazard analysis in order to protect our personnel from injury and our equipment from damage. The purpose of this hazard analysis is to define and address the potential hazards and controls associated with the Z1 Suit Port Test in Chamber B located in building 32, and to provide the applicable team of personnel with the documented results. It is imperative that each member of the team be familiar with the hazards and controls associated with his/her particular tasks, assignments, and activities while interfacing with facility test systems, equipment, and hardware. The goal of this hazard analysis is to identify all hazards that have the potential to harm personnel and/or damage facility equipment, flight hardware, property, or harm the environment. This analysis may also assess the significance and risk, when applicable, of lost test objectives when substantial monetary value is involved. The hazards, causes, controls, verifications, and risk assessment codes have been documented on the hazard analysis work sheets in appendix A of this document. The preparation and development of this report is in accordance with JPR 1700.1, JSC Safety and Health Handbook.

Source record↗

Pharmaceuticals Exposed to the Space Environment: Problems and Prospects

The NASA Human Research Program (HRP) Health Countermeasures Element maintains ongoing efforts to inform detailed risks, gaps, and further questions associated with the use of pharmaceuticals in space. Most recently, the Pharmacology Risk Report, released in 2010, illustrates the problems associated with maintaining pharmaceutical efficacy. Since the report, one key publication includes evaluation of pharmaceutical products stored on the International Space Station (ISS). This study shows that selected pharmaceuticals on ISS have a shorter shelf-life in space than corresponding terrestrial controls. The HRP Human Research Roadmap for planetary exploration identifies the risk of ineffective or toxic medications due to long-term storage during missions to Mars. The roadmap also identifies the need to understand and predict how pharmaceuticals will behave when exposed to radiation for long durations. Terrestrial studies of returned samples offer a start for predictive modeling. This paper shows that pharmaceuticals returned to Earth for post-flight analyses are amenable to a Weibull distribution analysis in order to support probabilistic risk assessment modeling. The paper also considers the prospect of passive payloads of key pharmaceuticals on sample return missions outside of Earth's magnetic field to gather additional statistics. Ongoing work in radiation chemistry suggests possible mitigation strategies where future work could be done at cryogenic temperatures to explore methods for preserving the strength of pharmaceuticals in the space radiation environment, perhaps one day leading to an architecture where pharmaceuticals are cached on the Martian surface and preserved cryogenically.

pharmacology↗

Development of Head Injury Assessment Reference Values Based on NASA Injury Modeling

NASA is developing a new capsule-based, crewed vehicle that will land in the ocean, and the space agency desires to reduce the risk of injury from impact during these landings. Because landing impact occurs for each flight and the crew might need to perform egress tasks, current injury assessment reference values (IARV) were deemed insufficient. Because NASCAR occupant restraint systems are more effective than the systems used to determine the current IARVs and are similar to NASA s proposed restraint system, an analysis of NASCAR impacts was performed to develop new IARVs that may be more relevant to NASA s context of vehicle landing operations. Head IARVs associated with race car impacts were investigated by completing a detailed analysis of all of the 2002-2008 NASCAR impact data. Specific inclusion and exclusion criteria were used to select 4071 impacts from the 4015 recorder files provided (each file could contain multiple impact events). Of the 4071 accepted impacts, 274 were selected for numerical simulation using a custom NASCAR restraint system and Humanetics Hybrid-III 50th percentile numerical dummy model in LS-DYNA. Injury had occurred in 32 of the 274 selected impacts, and 27 of those injuries involved the head. A majority of the head injuries were mild concussions with or without brief loss of consciousness. The 242 non-injury impacts were randomly selected and representative of the range of crash dynamics present in the total set of 4071 impacts. Head dynamics data (head translational acceleration, translational change in velocity, rotational acceleration, rotational velocity, HIC-15, HIC-36, and the Head 3ms clip) were filtered according to SAE J211 specifications and then transformed to a log scale. The probability of head injury was estimated using a separate logistic regression analysis for each log-transformed predictor candidate. Using the log transformation constrains the estimated probability of injury to become negligible as IARVs approach zero. For the parameters head translational acceleration, head translational velocity change, head rotational acceleration, HIC-15, and HIC-36, conservative values (in the lower 95% confidence interval) that gave rise to a 5% risk of any injury occurring were estimated as 40.0 G, 7.9 m/s, 2200 rad/s2, 98.4, and 77.4 respectively. Because NASA is interested in the consequence of any particular injury on the ability of the crew to perform egress tasks, the head injuries that occurred in the NASCAR dataset were classified according to a NASA-developed scale (Classes I - III) for operationally relevant injuries, which classifies injuries on the basis of their operational significance. Additional analysis of the data was performed to determine the probability of each injury class occurring, and this was estimated using an ordered probit model. For head translational acceleration, head translational velocity change, head rotational acceleration, head rotational velocity, HIC-36, and head 3ms clip, conservative values of IARVs that produced a 5% risk of Class II injury were estimated as 50.7 G, 9.5 m/s, 2863 rad/s2, 11.0 rad/s, 30.3, and 46.4 G respectively. The results indicate that head IARVs developed from the NASCAR dataset may be useful to protect crews during landing impact.

Somers, Jeffrey T.↗

Immune Dysregulation Following Short versus Long Duration Space Flight

Immune system dysregulation has been demonstrated to occur during spaceflight and has the potential to cause serious health risks to crewmembers participating in exploration-class missions. A comprehensive immune assessment was recently performed on 13 short duration Space Shuttle crewmembers and 8 long duration International Space Station (ISS) crewmembers. Statistically significant post-flight phenotype alterations (as compared to pre-flight baseline) for the Shuttle crewmembers included: granulocytosis, increased percentage of B cells, reduced percentage of NK cells, elevated CD4/CD8 ratio, elevated levels of memory CD4+ T cells, and a CD8+ T cell shift to a less differentiated state. For the Shuttle crewmembers, T cell function was surprisingly elevated post-flight, among both the CD4+ and CD8+ subsets. This is likely an acute stress response in less-deconditioned crewmembers. The percentage of CD4+/IL-2+, CD4+/IFNg+ and CD8+/IFNg+ T cells were all decreased at landing. Culture secreted IFNg production was significantly decreased at landing, whereas production of Th2 cytokines was largely unchanged. It was found that the IFNg:IL-10 ratio was obviously declined in the Shuttle crewmembers immediately post-flight. A similar pattern of alterations were observed for the long duration ISS crewmembers. In contrast to Shuttle crewmembers, the ISS crewmembers demonstrated a dramatic reduction in T cell function immediately post-flight. This may be related to the effect of acute landing stress in conjunction with prolonged deconditioning associated with extended flight. The reduction in IFNg:IL-10 ratio (Th2 shift) was also observed post-flight in the ISS crewmembers to a much higher degree. These data indicate consistent peripheral phenotype changes and altered cytokine production profiles occur following space travel of both short and long duration.

Crucian, Brian E.↗

Radiation transport modeling and assessment to better predict radiation exposure, dose, and toxicological effects to human organs on long duration space flights

NASA is very interested in improving its ability to monitor and forecast the radiation levels that pose a health risk to space-walking astronauts as they construct the International Space Station and astronauts that will participate in long-term and deep-space missions. Human exploratory missions to the moon and Mars within the next quarter century, will expose crews to transient radiation from solar particle events which include high-energy galactic cosmic rays and high-energy protons. Because the radiation levels in space are high and solar activity is presently unpredictable, adequate shielding is needed to minimize the deleterious health effects of exposure to radiation. Today, numerous models have been developed and used to predict radiation exposure. Such a model is the Space Environment Information Systems (SPENVIS) modeling program, developed by the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronautics. SPENVIS, which has been assessed to be an excellent tool in characterizing the radiation environment for microelectronics and investigating orbital debris, is being evaluated for its usefulness with determining the dose and dose-equivalent for human exposure. Thus far. the calculations for dose-depth relations under varying shielding conditions have been in agreement with calculations done using HZETRN and PDOSE, which are well-known and widely used models for characterizing the environments for human exploratory missions. There is disagreement when assessing the impact of secondary radiation particles since SPENVIS does a crude estimation of the secondary radiation particles when calculating LET versus Flux. SPENVIS was used to model dose-depth relations for the blood-forming organs. Radiation sickness and cancer are life-threatening consequences resulting from radiation exposure. In space. exposure to radiation generally includes all of the critical organs. Biological and toxicological impacts have been included for discussion along with alternative risk mitigation methods--shielding and anti-carcinogens. c 2001. Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

STS-91 Shuttle Project↗

A Survey of Titan Balloon Concepts and Technology Status

This paper surveys the options for, and technology status of, balloon vehicles to explore Saturn's moon Titan. A significant amount of Titan balloon concept thinking and technology development has been performed in recent years, particularly following the spectacular results from the descent and landing of the Huygens probe and remote sensing observations by the Cassini spacecraft. There is widespread recognition that a balloon vehicle on the next Titan mission could provide an outstanding and unmatched capability for in situ exploration on a global scale. The rich variety of revealed science targets has combined with a highly favorable Titan flight environment to yield a wide diversity of proposed balloon concepts. The paper presents a conceptual framework for thinking about balloon vehicle design choices and uses it to analyze various Titan options. The result is a list of recommended Titan balloon vehicle concepts that could perform a variety of science missions, along with their projected performance metrics. Recent technology developments for these balloon concepts are discussed to provide context for an assessment of outstanding risk areas and technological maturity. The paper concludes with suggestions for technology investments needed to achieve flight readiness.

balloon↗

Advanced Exploration Systems Atmosphere Resource Recovery and Environmental Monitoring

In September 2011, the Atmosphere Resource Recovery and Environmental Monitoring (ARREM) project was commissioned by NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems program to advance Atmosphere Revitalization Subsystem (ARS) and Environmental Monitoring Subsystem (EMS) technologies for enabling future crewed space exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit. The ARREM project's period of performance covered U.S. Government fiscal years 2012-2014. The ARREM project critically assessed the International Space Station (ISS) ARS and EMS architectures and process technologies as the foundation for an architecture suitable for deep space exploration vehicles. The project's technical content included technical tasks focused on improving the reliability and life cycle cost of ARS and EMS technologies as well as reducing future flight project developmental risk and design, development, test, and evaluation costs. Targeted technology development and maturation tasks, including key technical trade assessments, were accomplished and integrated ARS architectures were demonstrated. The ARREM project developed, demonstrated, and tested leading process technology candidates and subsystem architectures that met or exceeded key figures of merit, addressed capability gaps, and significantly improved the efficiency, safety, and reliability over the state-of-the-art ISS figures of merit. Promising EMS instruments were developed and functionally demonstrated in a simulated cabin environment. The project's technical approach and results are described and recommendations for continued development are provided.

Perry, J.↗

Risk estimation based on chromosomal aberrations induced by radiation

The presence of a causal association between the frequency of chromosomal aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes and the risk of cancer has been substantiated recently by epidemiological studies. Cytogenetic analyses of crew members of the Mir Space Station have shown that a significant increase in the frequency of chromosomal aberrations can be detected after flight, and that such an increase is likely to be attributed to the radiation exposure. The risk of cancer can be estimated directly from the yields of chromosomal aberrations, taking into account some aspects of individual susceptibility and other factors unrelated to radiation. However, the use of an appropriate technique for the collection and analysis of chromosomes and the choice of the structural aberrations to be measured are crucial in providing sound results. Based on the fraction of aberrant lymphocytes detected before and after flight, the relative risk after a long-term Mir mission is estimated to be about 1.2-1.3. The new technique of mFISH can provide useful insights into the quantification of risk on an individual basis.

STS Shuttle Project↗

Risk Balance: A Key Tool for Mission Operations Assurance

The Mission Operations Assurance (MOA) discipline actively participates as a project member to achieve their common objective of full mission success while also providing an independent risk assessment to the Project Manager and Office of Safety and Mission Success staff. The cornerstone element of MOA is the independent assessment of the risks the project faces in executing its mission. Especially as the project approaches critical mission events, it becomes imperative to clearly identify and assess the risks the project faces. Quite often there are competing options for the project to select from in deciding how to execute the event. An example includes choices between proven but aging hardware components and unused but unproven components. Timing of the event with respect to visual or telecommunications visibility can be a consideration in the case of Earth reentry or hazardous maneuver events. It is in such situations that MOA is called upon for a risk balance assessment or risk trade study to support their recommendation to the Project Manager for a specific option to select. In the following paragraphs we consider two such assessments, one for the Stardust capsule Earth return and the other for the choice of telecommunications system configuration for the EPOXI flyby of the comet Hartley 2. We discuss the development of the trade space for each project's scenario and characterize the risks of each possible option. The risk characterization we consider includes a determination of the severity or consequence of each risk if realized and the likelihood of its occurrence. We then examine the assessment process to arrive at a MOA recommendation. Finally we review each flight project's decision process and the outcome of their decisions.

operations↗

Space Shuttle Propulsion Finishing Strong

Numerous lessons have been documented from the Space Shuttle Propulsion elements. Major events include loss of the SRB's on STS-4 and shutdown of an SSME during ascent on STS- 51F. On STS-112 only half the pyrotechnics fired to release the vehicle from the launch pad, a testament for redundancy. STS-91 exhibited freezing of a main combustion chamber pressure measurement and on STS-93 nozzle tube ruptures necessitated a low liquid level oxygen cut off of the main engines. A number of on pad aborts were experienced during the early program resulting in delays. And the two accidents, STS-51L and STS-107, had unique heritage in history from early Program decisions and vehicle configuration. Following STS-51L significant resources were invested in developing fundamental physical understanding of solid rocket motor environments and material system behavior. Human rating of solid rocket motors was truly achieved. And following STS-107, the risk of ascent debris was better characterized and controlled. Situational awareness during all mission phases improved, and the management team instituted effective risk assessment practices. These major events and lessons for the future are discussed. The last 22 flights of the Space Shuttle, following the Columbia accident, were characterized by remarkable improvement in safety and reliability. Numerous problems were solved in addition to reduction of the ascent debris hazard. The propulsion system elements evolved to high reliability and heavy lift capability. The Shuttle system, though not a operable as envisioned in the 1970's, successfully assembled the International Space Station (ISS) and provided significant logistics and down mass for ISS operations. By the end of the Program, the remarkable Space Shuttle Propulsion system achieved very high performance, was largely reusable, exhibited high reliability, and is a heavy lift earth to orbit propulsion system. The story of this amazing system is discussed in detail in the paper.

Owen, James W.↗

A Parametric Model of Shoulder Articulation for Virtual Assessment of Space Suit Fit

Shoulder injury is one of the most severe risks that have the potential to impair crewmembers' performance and health in long duration space flight. Overall, 64% of crewmembers experience shoulder pain after extra-vehicular training in a space suit, and 14% of symptomatic crewmembers require surgical repair (Williams & Johnson, 2003). Suboptimal suit fit, in particular at the shoulder region, has been identified as one of the predominant risk factors. However, traditional suit fit assessments and laser scans represent only a single person's data, and thus may not be generalized across wide variations of body shapes and poses. The aim of this work is to develop a software tool based on a statistical analysis of a large dataset of crewmember body shapes. This tool can accurately predict the skin deformation and shape variations for any body size and shoulder pose for a target population, from which the geometry can be exported and evaluated against suit models in commercial CAD software. A preliminary software tool was developed by statistically analyzing 150 body shapes matched with body dimension ranges specified in the Human-Systems Integration Requirements of NASA ("baseline model"). Further, the baseline model was incorporated with shoulder joint articulation ("articulation model"), using additional subjects scanned in a variety of shoulder poses across a pre-specified range of motion. Scan data was cleaned and aligned using body landmarks. The skin deformation patterns were dimensionally reduced and the co-variation with shoulder angles was analyzed. A software tool is currently in development and will be presented in the final proceeding. This tool would allow suit engineers to parametrically generate body shapes in strategically targeted anthropometry dimensions and shoulder poses. This would also enable virtual fit assessments, with which the contact volume and clearance between the suit and body surface can be predictively quantified at reduced time and cost.

Kim, K. Han↗

Probabilistic reasoning for intelligent wind shear avoidance

A computerized intelligent cockpit aid can increase flight-crew awareness of wind shear, improving avoidance decisions. The FAA Windshear Training Aid (WTA) provides guidelines for assessing the risk of wind shear encounter from meteorological evidence. Use of these guidelines in the cockpit is complicated by uncertainty surrounding meteorological knowledge of wind shear. Bayesian network representation is discussed as a means of modeling this uncertain knowledge in a computer. A probabilistic model of the WTA guidelines using Bayesian network representation is presented. This model combines evidence from sources of varying reliability and incorporates results from meteorological studies of wind shear. The probabilistic model can provide flight crews with meaningful estimates of risk to aid their decisions, using evidence from a variety of sources and a base of meteorological knowledge.

Stratton, D. Alexander↗

Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation (AIR) ER-2 Preflight Analysis

Atmospheric ionizing radiation (AIR) produces chemically active radicals in biological tissues that alter the cell function or result in cell death. The AIR ER-2 flight measurements will enable scientists to study the radiation risk associated with the high-altitude operation of a commercial supersonic transport. The ER-2 radiation measurement flights will follow predetermined, carefully chosen courses to provide an appropriate database matrix which will enable the evaluation of predictive modeling techniques. Explicit scientific results such as dose rate, dose equivalent rate, magnetic cutoff, neutron flux, and air ionization rate associated with those flights are predicted by using the AIR model. Through these flight experiments, we will further increase our knowledge and understanding of the AIR environment and our ability to assess the risk from the associated hazard.

Tai, Hsiang↗

Pressure Gradient Effects on Hypersonic Cavity Flow Heating

The effect of a pressure gradient on the local heating disturbance of rectangular cavities tested at hypersonic freestream conditions has been globally assessed using the two-color phosphor thermography method. These experiments were conducted in the Langley 31-Inch Mach 10 Tunnel and were initiated in support of the Space Shuttle Return-To-Flight Program. Two blunted-nose test surface geometries were developed, including an expansion plate test surface with nearly constant negative pressure gradient and a flat plate surface with nearly zero pressure gradient. The test surface designs and flow characterizations were performed using two-dimensional laminar computational methods, while the experimental boundary layer state conditions were inferred using the measured heating distributions. Three-dimensional computational predictions of the entire model geometry were used as a check on the design process. Both open-flow and closed-flow cavities were tested on each test surface. The cavity design parameters and the test condition matrix were established using the computational predictions. Preliminary conclusions based on an analysis of only the cavity centerline data indicate that the presence of the pressure gradient did not alter the open cavity heating for laminar-entry/laminar-exit flows, but did raise the average floor heating for closed cavities. The results of these risk-reduction studies will be used to formulate a heating assessment of potential damage scenarios occurring during future Space Shuttle flights.

Everhart, Joel L.↗