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Biennial oscillation associated with the East Asian summer monsoon and tropical sea surface temperatures

In this paper, the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall and the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) have been studied. It is found that the EASM rainfall prossesses a strong biennial signal, which is particularly pronounced over the southeast China. For the SST, the biennial oscillation is the second most significant quasi-periodic signal over the entire tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. Results indicate that the biennial variations in the SST and EASM rainfall are closely linked. The SST pattern which is best correlated with EASM rainfall appears in the form of a double see-saw with quasi-stationary centers of action over the Indian Ocean, the Asian monsoon region and the eastern Pacific. The most pronounced SST signals are found in the equatorial eastern Pacific and Indian Ocean about two seasons preceding and following the EASM rainfall. Evidence is presented suggesting that the biennial variability of the EASM rainfall is phase-locked to a global scale biennial oscillation involving the interplay of the Asian monsoon, the Hadley and Walker circulations, and basin wide fluctuations in SST. In particular, the eastward propagation of zonal wind anomalies from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific, which regulates the moisture fluxes from the western Pacific to the East Asian region, appears to be a key component of the biennial fluctuation associated with EASM rainfall. Results suggest that the relationship between the Asian monsoon and tropical SST is more robust in the biennial that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time scale, hence raising the possibility that the biennial oscillation may be more fundamentally related to monsoon-ocean-atmosphere interaction than ENSO itself.

Shen, Suhung↗

Steps toward determination of the size and structure of the broad-line region in active galactic nuclei. 8: An intensive HST, IUE, and ground-based study of NGC 5548

We present the data and initial results from a combined HST/IUE/ground-based spectroscopic monitoring campaign on the Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 5548 that was undertaken in order to address questions that require both higher temporal resolution and higher signal-to-noise ratios than were obtained in our previous multiwavelength monitoring of this galaxy in 1988-89. IUE spectra were obtained once every two days for a period of 74 days beginning on 14 March 1993. During the last 39 days of this campaign, spectroscopic observations were also made with the HST Faint Object Spectrograph (FOS) on a daily basis. Ground-based observations, consisting of 165 optical spectra and 77 photometric observations (both CCD imaging and aperture photometry), are reported for the period 1992 October to 1993 September, although much of the data are concentrated around the time of the satellite-based program. These data constitute a fifth year of intensive optical monitoring of this galaxy. In this contribution, we describe the acquisition and reduction of all of the satellite and ground-based data obtained in this program. We describe in detail various photometric problems with the FOS and explain how we identified and corrected for various anomalies. During the HST portion of the monitoring campaign, the 1350 A continuum flux is found to have varied by nearly a factor of two. In other wavebands, the continuum shows nearly identical behavior, except that the amplitude of variability is larger at shorter wavelengths, and the continuum light curves appear to show more short time-scale variability at shorter wavelengths. The broad emission lines also vary in flux, with amplitudes that are slightly smaller than the UV continuum variations and with a small time delay relative to the UV continuum. On the basis of simple time-series analysis of the UV and optical continuum and emission line light curves, we find (1) that the ultraviolet and optical continuum variations are virtually simultaneous, with any lag between the 1350 A continuum and the 5100 A continuum amounting to less than about one day; (2) that the variations in the highest ionization lines observed, He II lambda 1640 and N V lambda 1240, lag behind the continuum variations by somewhat less than 2 days, and (3) that the velocity field of the C IV-emitting region is not dominated by radial motion. The results on the C IV velocity field are preliminary and quite uncertain, but there are some weak indications that the emission-line (wings absolute value of Delta upsilon is greater than or equal to 3000 km/s) respond to continuum variations slightly more rapidly than does the core. The optical observations show that the variations in the broad H beta line flux follow the continuum variations with a time lag of around two weeks, about twice the lag for Ly alpha and C IV, as in our previous monitoring campaign on this same galaxy. However, the lags measured for Ly alpha, C IV, and H Beta are each slightly smaller than previously determined. We confirm two trends reported earlier, namely (1) that the UV/optical continuum becomes 'harder' as it gets brighter, and (2) that the highest ionization emission lines have the shortest lags, thus indicating radial ionization stratificatin of a broad-line region that spans over an order of magnitude range in radius.

Korista, K.↗

The Statistical Mechanics of Solar Wind Hydroxylation at the Moon, Within Lunar Magnetic Anomalies, and at Phobos

We present a new formalism to describe the outgassing of hydrogen initially implanted by the solar wind protons into exposed soils on airless bodies. The formalism applies a statistical mechanics approach similar to that applied recently to molecular adsorption onto activated surfaces. The key element enabling this formalism is the recognition that the interatomic potential between the implanted H and regolith-residing oxides is not of singular value but possess a distribution of trapped energy values at a given temperature, F(U,T). All subsequent derivations of the outward diffusion and H retention rely on the specific properties of this distribution. We find that solar wind hydrogen can be retained if there are sites in the implantation layer with activation energy values exceeding 0.5eV. We especially examine the dependence of H retention applying characteristic energy values found previously for irradiated silica and mature lunar samples. We also apply the formalism to two cases that differ from the typical solar wind implantation at the Moon. First, we test for a case of implantation in magnetic anomaly regions where significantly lower-energy ions of solar wind origin are expected to be incident with the surface. In magnetic anomalies, H retention is found to be reduced due to the reduced ion flux and shallower depth of implantation. Second, we also apply the model to Phobos where the surface temperature range is not as extreme as the Moon. We find the H atom retention in this second case is higher than the lunar case due to the reduced thermal extremes (that reduces outgassing).

Solar Wind↗

Improved Boundary Conditions for Coupled Geospace Models: An Application in Modeling Spacecraft Surface Charging Environment

Abstract Spacecraft surface charging in the inner magnetosphere often occurs in the pre‐midnight to the dawn sector when electron fluxes of tens of keV increase. Inner magnetosphere ring current models can be used to simulate/predict the spacecraft surface charging environment, with their outer boundary conditions specified either based on observations or provided by other models, such as MHD models. In the latter approach, using MHD quantities, the flux spectrum at the outer boundary is commonly assumed to follow a Kappa or Maxwellian distribution function. Such a method however often departs greatly from the realistic spectrum at E < tens of keV, a crucial energy range in the surface charging anomaly. In order to achieve a better representation of the surface charging environment, we propose to combine the MHD‐parameterized flux spectrum with an empirical electron flux model of E < 40 keV to set the electron flux boundary condition. Results indicate that as opposed to the case where the MHD‐parameterized flux distribution is solely used at the model boundary, simulations with the new boundary condition yields a more intense surface charging environment. The integrated electron flux between 10 < E < 50 keV, a measure of the severity of the surface charging environment, is significantly enhanced by 1‐2 orders of magnitude, leading to a much better agreement with Van Allen Probes measurements. This study hence demonstrates a reasonable solution to the setting of outer boundary conditions for inner magnetosphere models and is recommended for coupled geospace circulation models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability in Antarctic Sea-Ice Dynamics, and Its Impact on Surface Fluxes and Water Mass Production

Strong seasonal and interannual signals in Antarctic bottom-water outflow remain unexplained yet are highly correlated with anomalies in net sea-ice growth in coastal polynyas. The mechanisms responsible for driving salination and replenishment and rejuvenation of the dense shelf "source" waters likely also generate pulses of bottom water outflow. The objective of this research is to investigate time-scales of variability in the dynamics of sea-ice in the Southern Ocean in order to determine the primary sites for production of dense shelf waters. We are using a merged satellite/buoy sea-ice motion data set for the period 1978-present day to compute the dynamics of opening and closing of coastal polynyas over the continental shelf. The Ocean Circulation and Climate Advanced Model (OCCAM) ocean general circulation model with coupled sea-ice dynamics is presently forced using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data to simulate fluxes and the salination impact of the ocean shelf regions. This work is relevant in the context of measuring the influence of polar sea-ice dynamics upon polar ocean characteristics, and thereby upon global thermohaline ocean circulation. Interannual variability in simulated net freezing rate in the Southern Weddell Sea is shown for the period 1986-1993. There is a pronounced maximum of ice production in 1988 and minimum in 1991 in response to anomalies in equatorward meridional wind velocity. This follows a similar approximate 8-year interannual cycle in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and satellite-derived ice-edge anomalies reported elsewhere as the "Antarctic Circumpolar Wave." The amplitude of interannual fluctuations in annual net ice production are about 40% of the mean value, implying significant interannual variance in brine rejection and upper ocean heat loss. Southward anomalies in wind stress induce negative anomalies in open water production, which are observed in passive microwave satellite images. Thus, cycles of enhanced poleward wind stress reduce ice growth by compacting the ice along the coastline and closing open water in leads and polynyas. Model simulations confirm that years of low ice production, such as 1991, coincide with years of lower than normal bottom water outflow. Future plans include the assimilation of satellite ice concentrations and ice drift dynamics to more accurately constrain boundary conditions in the model.

Drinkwater, Mark R.↗

Space-based Observational Constraints for 1-D Plume Rise Models

We use a space-based plume height climatology derived from observations made by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument aboard the NASA Terra satellite to evaluate the ability of a plume-rise model currently embedded in several atmospheric chemical transport models (CTMs) to produce accurate smoke injection heights. We initialize the plume-rise model with assimilated meteorological fields from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System and estimated fuel moisture content at the location and time of the MISR measurements. Fire properties that drive the plume-rise model are difficult to estimate and we test the model with four estimates for active fire area and four for total heat flux, obtained using empirical data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) re radiative power (FRP) thermal anomalies available for each MISR plume. We show that the model is not able to reproduce the plume heights observed by MISR over the range of conditions studied (maximum r2 obtained in all configurations is 0.3). The model also fails to determine which plumes are in the free troposphere (according to MISR), key information needed for atmospheric models to simulate properly smoke dispersion. We conclude that embedding a plume-rise model using currently available re constraints in large-scale atmospheric studies remains a difficult proposition. However, we demonstrate the degree to which the fire dynamical heat flux (related to active fire area and sensible heat flux), and atmospheric stability structure influence plume rise, although other factors less well constrained (e.g., entrainment) may also be significant. Using atmospheric stability conditions, MODIS FRP, and MISR plume heights, we offer some constraints on the main physical factors that drive smoke plume rise. We find that smoke plumes reaching high altitudes are characterized by higher FRP and weaker atmospheric stability conditions than those at low altitude, which tend to remain confined below the BL, consistent with earlier results. We propose two simplified parameterizations for computing injection heights for fires in CTMs and discuss current challenges to representing plume injection heights in large scale atmospheric models.

Martin, Maria Val↗

AIRS Products Confirm and Explain Recent Negative Trends of OLR as Observed by CERES

Anomalies and trends of OLR serve as important indicators of climate change. Several satellite based instruments currently provide information related to OLR. CERES, on board the EOS Aqua and Terra satellites, contains broad band radiometers that measure total flux and short-wave flux, from which OLR is determined. AIRS is a high spectral resolution IR sounder on EOS Aqua that measures IR radiances covering most of the spectral interval 650/cm to 2670/cm. These observations enable the determination of detailed information about atmospheric temperature, moisture, and ozone profiles, as well as surface skin temperatures and cloud parameters. The AIRS OLR product is the total flux over the spectral interval 2/cm to 2750/cm computed for the surface and atmospheric state determined from AIRS observations. We compared spatial anomalies and trends of OLR, over the seven year period September 2002 through August 2009, as observed by CERES and computed using Version-5 AIRS products. These two sets of OLR anomalies and trends, obtained in very different ways, agree with each other almost perfectly in essentially every detail. This important finding shows that a very stable high spectral infra-red sounder such as AIRS corroborates the anomalies and trends of OLR obtained from CERES. More significantly, anomalies and trends of the individual geophysical parameters derived from AIRS explain the detailed causes of the anomalies and trends of CERES OLR. Both sets of results show that global mean OLR has been decreasing at a rate of 0.12 W/sq m/yr over the seven year time period under study. Both also confirm that the primary cause of this is due to changes in the tropics, in which OLR has been decreasing at a rate of 0.27 W/sq m/yr. AIRS products show that the decrease of tropical OLR is a result of increasing tropical atmospheric water vapor and cloud cover over that time period studied, which in turn is responding to a very strong La Nina; a event starting in late 2007. Equatorial ocean temperatures between 160 E and 120 W cooled considerably during this time period, with corresponding local decreases in mid-tropospheric humidity and cloud cover, resulting in increases in local OLR. This was more than compensated by substantial increases in water vapor and cloud cover elsewhere in the tropics, resulting in a net decrease in tropical OLR. The AIRS Version-5 products currently extend through December 2009. An El Nino event began in late 2009. AIRS products show that tropical OLR began to increase at that time, and there was a corresponding reversal of sign of tropical cloud and water vapor anomalies.

Susskind, Joel↗

Drivers of coupled climate model biases in representing Labrador Sea convection

Abstract This study investigates the representation of ocean convection in the Labrador Sea in seven Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 datasets. The relative role of the oceanic and atmospheric biases in the subpolar North Atlantic gyre are explored using regional ocean simulations where the atmospheric forcing or the ocean initial and boundary conditions are replaced by reanalysis data in the absence of interactive air-sea coupling. Commonalities and differences among model behaviors are discussed with the objective of finding a pathway forward to improve the representation of the ocean mean state and variability in a region of fundamental importance for climate variability and change. Results highlight that an improved representation of ocean stratification in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre is urgently needed to constrain future climate change projections. While improving the ocean model resolution in the North Atlantic alone may contribute a better representation of both boundary currents and propagation of heat and freshwater anomalies into the Labrador Sea, it may not be sufficient. Addressing the atmospheric heat flux bias with better resolution in the atmosphere and land topography may allow for deep convection to occur in the Labrador Sea in some of the models that miss it entirely, but the greatest priority remains improving the representation of ocean stratification.

Liu, Guangpeng↗

Turbulent Heat Flux, Downward Longwave Radiation, and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Associated with Wintertime Barents–Kara Sea Extreme Sea Ice Loss Events

We investigate wintertime extreme sea ice loss events on synoptic to subseasonal time scales over the Barents–Kara Sea, where the largest sea ice variability is located. Consistent with previous studies, extreme sea ice loss events are associated with moisture intrusions over the Barents–Kara Sea, which are driven by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In addition to the role of downward longwave radiation associated with moisture intrusions, which is emphasized by previous studies, our analysis shows that strong turbulent heat fluxes are associated with extreme sea ice melting events, with both turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes contributing, although turbulent sensible heat fluxes dominate. Our analysis also shows that these events are connected to tropical convective anomalies. A dipole pattern of convective anomalies with enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent and suppressed convection over the central to eastern Pacific is consistently detected about 6–10 days prior to extreme sea ice loss events. This pattern is associated with either the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) or El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Composites show that extreme sea ice loss events are connected to tropical convection via Rossby wave propagation in the midlatitudes. However, tropical convective anomalies alone are not sufficient to trigger extreme sea ice loss events, suggesting that extratropical variability likely modulates the connection between tropical convection and extreme sea ice loss events.

Arctic↗

The Low-Frequency Variability of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean

Upper ocean temperature variability in the tropical Atlantic is examined from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) as well as from an ocean model simulation forced by COADS anomalies appended to a monthly climatology. Our findings are as follows: Only the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the northern tropics are driven by heat fluxes, while the southern tropical variability arises from wind driven ocean circulation changes. The subsurface temperatures in the northern and southern tropics are found to have a strong linkage to buoyancy forcing changes in the northern North Atlantic. Evidence for Kelvin-like boundary wave propagation from the high latitudes is presented from the model simulation. This extratropical influence is associated with wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) forcing and manifests itself in the northern and southern tropical temperature anomalies of the same sign at depth of 100-200 meters as result of a Rossby wave propagation away from the eastern boundary in the wake of the boundary wave passage. The most apparent association of the southern tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (STA) arises with the anomalous cross-equatorial winds which can be related to both NAO and the remote influence from the Pacific equatorial region. These teleconnections are seasonal so that the NAO impact on the tropical SST is the largest it mid-winter but in spring and early summer the Pacific remote influence competes with NAO. However, NAO appears to have a more substantial role than the Pacific influence at low frequencies during the last 50 years. The dynamic origin of STA is indirectly confirmed from the SST-heat flux relationship using ocean model experiments which remove either anomalous wind stress forcing or atmospheric forcing anomalies contributing to heat exchange.

Haekkinen, Sirpa↗

KMT-2019-BLG-1715: Planetary Microlensing Event with Three Lens Masses and Two Source Stars

We investigate the gravitational microlensing event KMT-2019-BLG-1715, the light curve of which shows two short-term anomalies from a caustic-crossing binary-lensing light curve: one with a large deviation and the other with a small deviation. We identify five pairs of solutions, in which the anomalies are explained by adding an extra lens or source component in addition to the base binary-lens model. We resolve the degeneracies by applying a method in which the measured flux ratio between the first and second source stars is compared with the flux ratio deduced from the ratio of the source radii. Applying this method leaves a single pair of viable solutions, in both of which the major anomaly is generated by a planetary-mass third body of the lens, and the minor anomaly is generated by a faint second source. A Bayesian analysis indicates that the lens comprises three masses: a planet-mass object with ∼2.6 M {sub J} and binary stars of K and M dwarfs lying in the galactic disk. We point out the possibility that the lens is the blend, and this can be verified by conducting high-resolution follow-up imaging for the resolution of the lens from the source.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

KMT-2019-BLG-1715: Planetary Microlensing Event with Three Lens Masses and Two Source Stars

We investigate the gravitational microlensing event KMT-2019-BLG-1715, the light curve of which shows two short-term anomalies from a caustic-crossing binary-lensing light curve: one with a large deviation and the other with a small deviation. We identify five pairs of solutions, in which the anomalies are explained by adding an extra lens or source component in addition to the base binary-lens model. We resolve the degeneracies by applying a method in which the measured flux ratio between the first and second source stars is compared with the flux ratio deduced from the ratio of the source radii. Applying this method leaves a single pair of viable solutions, in both of which the major anomaly is generated by a planetary-mass third body of the lens, and the minor anomaly is generated by a faint second source. A Bayesian analysis indicates that the lens comprises three masses: a planet-mass object with ∼2.6 MJ and binary stars of K and M dwarfs lying in the galactic disk. We point out the possibility that the lens is the blend, and this can be verified by conducting high-resolution follow-up imaging for the resolution of the lens from the source.

Cheongho Han↗

Investigation of Scale-Dependent Groundwater/Surface-water Exchange in Rivers by Gradient Self-Potential Logging: Numerical Modeling and Field Experiments

Exchanges of groundwater and surface-water are fundamental to a wide range of water-supply and water-quality management issues but challenging to map beyond the reach scale. Waterborne gradient self-potential (SP) measurements are directly sensitive to water flow through riverbed sediments and can be used to infer exchange locations, direction (gain versus loss), scale, and relative changes, but to date applications to river corridor hydrology are limited. Numerical modeling and field experiments were therefore performed herein, each emphasizing waterborne gradient SP logging for identifying and locating focused vertical groundwater discharge (surface-water gain) and recharge (surface-water loss) in a river. Two and three-dimensional numerical models were constructed to simulate the polarities, appearances, and peak amplitudes of streaming-potential and electric-field anomalies on a riverbed and in the surface-water that were attributable to steady-state vertical fluxes of groundwater through high-permeability conduits in the riverbed. Effects of varied hydraulic length-scale of exchange and surface-water depth were tested through numerical modeling. Modeling results aided in data acquisition and interpretation for three repeated field experiments performed along a 1.5–2.0 km reach of the Quashnet River in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, where focused, meter-scale groundwater discharges occur at discrete locations within otherwise ubiquitous and more diffuse groundwater upwelling conditions. Strong gradient SP anomalies were repeatedly measured in the Quashnet River at previously confirmed locations of focused groundwater discharge, showing the efficacy of waterborne gradient SP logging in identifying and characterizing groundwater/surface water exchange dynamics at multiple river network scales.

Engineering↗

A decade's overview of Io's volcanic activity

Over the past decade some aspects of Io's volcanic activity have changed greatly, while others have essentially remained constant. This contrast has emerged from our study of multi-wavelength, infrared, observations of Io's thermal emission. From 1983 to 1992 we observed the disk integrated flux density of Io from the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) on Mauna Kea, Hawaii. Our spectral coverage allows us to separate out the emission components due to volcanic thermal anomalies which are warmer than the background emission caused by solar heating. Our temporal coverage allows us to resolve individual eruptions and also to obtain the disk-integrated flux density as a function of longitude (or, equivalently, orbital phase angle). Characteristics that persisted over the decade involve Loki's location and intensity of emission, the leading hemisphere emission, and the average heat flow. The variable aspects of Io over the decade include Loki's hotter area(s) and the outbursts in the leading hemisphere.

Matson, D. L.↗

Summary of the CTS Transient Event Counter data after one year of operation

The environmental charging of satellite surfaces during geomagnetic substorms is the apparent cause of a significant number of anomalous events occurring on geosynchronous satellites since the early 1970's. Electromagnetic pulses produced in connection with the differential charging of insulators can couple into the spacecraft harness and cause electronic switching anomalies. An investigation conducted to determine the response of the spacecraft surfaces to substorm particle fluxes makes use of a harness transient detector. The harness transient detector, called the Transient Event Counter (TEC) was built and integrated into the Canadian-American Communications Technology Satellite (CTS). A description of the TEC and its operational characteristics is given and the obtained data are discussed. The data show that the satellite surfaces appear to be charged to the point that discharges occur and that the discharge-induced transients couple into the wire harnesses.

Stevens, N. J.↗

Constraining the Neutron Star Mass–Radius Relation and Dense Matter Equation of State with NICER. I. The Millisecond Pulsar X-Ray Data Set

We present the set of deep Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) X-ray timing observations of the nearby rotation-powered millisecond pulsars PSRs J0437−4715, J0030+0451, J1231−1411, and J2124−3358, selected as targets for constraining the mass–radius relation of neutron stars and the dense matter equation of state (EoS) via modeling of their pulsed thermal X-ray emission. We describe the instrument, observations, and data processing/reduction procedures, as well as the series of investigations conducted to ensure that the properties of the data sets are suitable for parameter estimation analyses to produce reliable constraints on the neutron star mass–radius relation and the dense matter EoS. We find that the long-term timing and flux behavior and the Fourier domain properties of the event data do not exhibit any anomalies that could adversely affect the intended measurements. From phase-selected spectroscopy, we find that emission from the individual pulse peaks is well described by a single-temperature hydrogen atmosphere spectrum, with the exception of PSR J0437−4715, for which multiple temperatures are required.

Neutron stars↗

Enhanced Néel Temperature and Unusual Thermal Expansion in Flux-Grown FeCrAs Crystals

Here, we report results from our experimental investigation of the distorted kagome compound FeCrAs. We used tin metal as a flux to produce needlelike crystals, which we characterized using single-crystal X-ray diffraction as well as measurements of magnetization, electrical transport, and heat capacity. The physical behaviors differ in two notable ways from those of previously studied crystals grown from a stoichiometric melt. First, the Néel temperature is found to be 150 K, about 25 K higher than in previous reports. Second, the Sommerfeld coefficient, a measure of the electronic heat capacity, is found to be significantly smaller than the previously reported value. These differences indicate stronger magnetic interactions and fewer charge carriers in the flux-grown crystals, which may be related to differences in stoichiometry or disorder. In addition, we find unusual thermal expansion behavior, with an anomaly at the Néel temperature and nearly temperature-independent thermal expansion along the hexagonal c-axis above this transition. This suggests significant spin–lattice coupling, which may provide insight into nonmetallic transport properties that have been associated with anomalous charge carrier scattering. The flux growth presented here may provide a useful approach for tuning crystal chemistry to explore magnetism, transport, and spin–lattice coupling in this interesting material.

McGuire, Michael A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory↗

Comparison of Anomalies and Trends of OLR as Observed by CERES and Computed from Geophysical Parameters Derived from Analysis of AIRS/AMSU Data

Anomalies and trends of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) serve as important indicators of climate change. Several satellite based instruments currently provide information related to OLR. CERES, on board the EOS Aqua and Terra satellites, contains broad band radiometers that measure total flux and short-wave flux, from which OLR is determined. AIRS is a high spectral resolution IR sounder on EOS Aqua that measures IR radiances covering most of the spectral interval 650 cm-1 to 2670 cm-1. These observations enable the determination of detailed information about atmospheric temperature, moisture, and ozone profiles, as well as surface skin temperatures and cloud parameters. The AIRS OLR product is the total flux over the spectral interval 2 cm-1 to2750 cm-1 computed for the surface and atmospheric state determined from AIRS observations. We compared spatial anomalies and trends of OLR, over the seven year period September 2002 through August 2009, as observed by CERES and computed using Version 5 AIRS products. These two sets of OLR anomalies and trends, obtained in very different ways, agree with each other almost perfectly in essentially every detail. This important finding shows that a very stable high spectral infra-red sounder such as AIRS corroborates the anomalies and trends of OLR obtained from CERES. More significantly, anomalies and trends of the individual geophysical parameters derived from AIRS explain the detailed causes of the anomalies and trends of CERES OLR. Both sets of results show that global mean OLR has been decreasing at a rate of 0.12 W/m2/yr over the seven year time period under study. Both also confirm that the primary cause of this is due to changes in the tropics, in which OLR has been decreasing at a rate of 0.27 W/m2/yr. AIRS products show that the decrease of tropical OLR is a result of increasing tropical atmospheric water vapor and cloud cover over the time period studied, which in turn is responding to a very strong E1 Nino/ La Nina cycle. Equatorial ocean temperatures between 160E and 120W cooled considerably during this time period, with corresponding local decreases in mid-tropospheric humidity and cloud cover, resulting in increases in local OLR. This was more than compensated by substantial increases in water vapor and cloud cover elsewhere in the tropics, resulting in a net decrease in tropical OLR.

Susskind, Joel↗