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At least 217 records · Page 12

AIST Technology Perspectives for ESO Mission Processing and Open-sourced Science

NASA is formulating the Earth System Observatory (ESO), a set of Earth-focused missions to provide key information to guide efforts related to monitoring climate change, mitigating disasters, fighting forest fires, and improving real-time agricultural processes. Within that framework, this presentation will introduce the Advanced Collaborative Frameworks (ACF) concepts that have been developed as part of the Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program, demonstrating the capability for facilitating open-sourced science and with a strong transition/infusion potential.

Jacqueline Le Moigne↗

The NASA Aerosols, Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation (ACCP) Observing System

NASA’s new Earth System Observatory (ESO) will provide key information related to understanding climate change processes, mitigating natural hazards, fighting forest fires, and improving real-time agricultural processes. The ACCP observing system will address two of the five major focus areas: aerosols, which determine air quality and affect the global energy balance, a key source of uncertainty in predicting climate change; and clouds, convection, and precipitation, whose processes are also a large source of uncertainty in future projections of climate change as well as predictions of severe weather. ACCP, currently in the concept investigation phase, is made up of two projects, one in an inclined orbit and the other in a polar orbit, with both projects addressing synergistic A and CCP science. Suborbital science is also a significant element of ACCP. This talk will describe the science objectives of ACCP and their relationship to the 2017 NASA Earth Science Decadal Survey as well as summarize the orbital architecture and major science activities during the concept investigation phase.

Scott Braun↗

Application of Advanced Earth Observations and Model Simulations to Improve Air Quality Monitoring in the Hindu-Kush-Himalayan Region

Air pollution is a serious environmental health concern in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region of south-central Asia, as rapid industrialization and population growth have led to increased anthropogenic emissions from transportation, residential, industrial, energy, and biomass burning sources. Natural emissions from dust and forest fires are additional sources of air pollutants that can exacerbate air quality in the region. The combination of the complex pollutant mixtures and atmospherically stable weather conditions during the winter monsoon can visibility reductions and hazardous air quality from persistent haze episodes. The Kathmandu Valley is especially vulnerable to extreme haze issues due to the surrounding mountains that restrict air movement and retains pollutants in the atmosphere. This study uses state-of-the-art satellite observations and modeling capabilities in conjunction with ground-based networks to provide a comprehensive data toolkit for advancing air quality monitoring and forecasting decisions in the HKH region. The toolkit includes new generation satellite observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS), and Advanced Meteorological Imager, which provide high spatiotemporal information on NO2, HCHO, SO2, O3, and aerosol optical depth (AOD). Particulate matter with diameters less than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) are derived from the satellite-retrieved AOD using ground-based observations and forecast model data. The satellite observations are also used to initialize and constrain forecast model systems designed for the HKH region. This talk will highlight the performance of the air quality toolkit for enhancing decision-making processes during exceptional air quality events in the region. Note: Presentation includes additional attachment of full presentation with sound and animation (best when viewed as slide show) with runtime of 15 min 32 secs

Aaron Naeger↗

Tonlé Sap Food Security & Agriculture III: Evaluating Changes in Ecosystem Vitality and Freshwater Health in the Tonlé Sap Basin using Remotely Sensed Data

Tonlé Sap Lake, located in Cambodia, Southeast Asia, is one of the most productive inland fisheries in the world. With the unique reverse flow hydrology of the Tonlé Sap River, this freshwater system contains rich biodiversity and provides critical freshwater resources for the local community. Overfishing, stronger seasonality, drought, dam construction, forest fires, and untreated industrial domestic sewage threaten the ecosystem vitality and economic success of Tonlé Sap. In collaboration with Conservation International and the Cambodian Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology’s Tonlé Sap Authority, we calibrated and finalized remotely-sensed proxies for sub-indicators of the Freshwater Health Index (FHI). We used NASA Earth observation data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). These datasets were used in RS proxies and a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that previous teams developed for sub-indicators of FHI. They included landcover, bank modification, and water quality metrics. It was determined that the ground water storage in Tonlé Sap Lake exhibited a slight declining trend over from April 1st, 2002 to February 3rd, 2017. To calculate chlorophyll-a concentration in the Tonlé Sap Lake, we used Copernicus Global Land Service mission data which provided a Trophic State Index of the lake. Between January 1st, 2000 and December 31st, 2020, the lake and surrounding region within the study area boundary displayed a slight decrease in vegetation density and consistently high chlorophyll-a concentrations. The SWAT model calculated nitrogen and phosphorus content measured in outlet points of the lake. We demonstrated that remotely sensed data is valuable for providing additional information for the FHI, but is not fully capable of replacing its in situ counterpart. We also concluded the water quantity is on a slowly declining trend within the basin.

Joey Lindsay↗

Opportunistic Experiments to Constrain Aerosol Effective Radiative Forcing

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The non-linearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in observed relationships of aerosol radiative forcing. Using correlations to infer causality can be challenging when meteorological variability also drives both aerosol and cloud changes independently. Natural and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations from well defined sources provide ‘opportunistic experiments’ (also known as natural experiments) to investigate ACI in cases where causality may be more confidently inferred. These perturbations cover a wide range of locations and spatio-temporal scales, including point sources such as volcanic eruptions or industrial sources, plumes from biomass burning or forest fires, and tracks from individual ships or shipping corridors.We review the different experimental conditions and conduct a synthesis of the available satellite data sets and field campaigns to place these opportunistic experiments on a common footing, facilitating new insights and a clearer understanding of key uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing. Cloud albedo perturbations are strongly sensitive to background meteorological conditions. Strong liquid water path increases due to aerosol perturbations are largely ruled out by averaging across experiments. Opportunistic experiments have significantly improved process-level understanding of ACI, but it remains unclear how reliably the relationships found can be scaled to the global level, thus demonstrating a need for deeper investigation in order to improve assessments of aerosol radiative forcing and climate change.

Matthew W Christensen↗

Observing System Simulations for the AOS Mission

The Earth System Observatory (ESO) is NASA’s response to the recommendations of the 2017 Earth Sciences Decadal Survey conducted by the US National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. The ESO is being conceived as a set of fully integrated missions addressing 4 main Earth science focus areas including aerosols, clouds, convection and precipitation (jointly re-ferred to as AOS, the Atmosphere Observing System). ESO ground breaking observations will provide critical measurements to address societally relevant problems in climate change, natural hazard mitiga-tion, fighting forest fires, and improving real-time agricultural processes. A critical element of the AOS observing strategy is to make extensive use of new passive and active sen-sors as well as of the so-called Program-of-Record (PoR), complemented by a fully integrated sub-orbital component. In order to achieve maximum benefit, all these observations need to be integrated into comprehensive observing and modeling/data assimilation systems. Such an approach requires compre-hensive model-data synthesis capabilities that needs to be conceived in conjunction with the space-based and suborbital components of AOS. In this presentation we will summarize the major science goals of AOS including cloud feedbacks, at-mospheric convection, emphasizing aerosol processes and aerosol radiative effects, and the synergistic aspects of clouds-precipitation-aerosol interactions. We will describe examples of the observing system simulation capabilities being developed for AOS, including global storm resolving nature runs, detailed instrument and retrieval simulators, as well as fast retrieval emulators for instrumenting climate models. This simulation environment, being developed under NASA’s open-source science initiative, will permit us to explore how AOS data will be used across space and time to better initialize forecasts and train modeling systems, and to infuse models and data assimilation systems with AOS data, well before launch.

Arlindo da Silva↗

An Analytic Collaborative Framework for the Earth System Observatory

NASA's Earth System Observatory groundbreaking observations will provide critical measurements to address societal relevant problems in climate change, natural hazard mitigation, fighting forest fires, and improving real-time agricultural processes. Central to the ESO vision is the notion of Open-Source Science (OSS), a collaborative culture enabled by technology that promotes the open sharing of data, information, and knowledge aiming to facilitate and accelerate scientific understanding, and the agile development of applications for the benefit of society. The larger vision of an Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) calls for integrated Earth science frameworks that mirror the Earth by a proxy digital construct that includes km-scale resolution Earth system models and data assimilation systems along with an integrated set of analytic tools to enable the next generation of science discoveries and evidence-based decision making. The goal of this project is to develop an Analytic Collaborative Framework for ESO missions, based on realistic, science-based observing system simulations and the Program of Record (PoR). Tying it all together is a cloud-based cyberinfrastructure that will enable each uniquely designed satellite in the Earth System Observatory to work in tandem to create a 3D, holistic view of Earth. In this presentation, we lay the technological groundwork for enabling such a vision. Our approach consists of the 3 main interconnected building blocks: 1. Cloud-optimized representative datasets for ESO missions and the PoR to serve as basis for developing and prototyping an Analytic Collaborative Framework. 2. An Algorithm Workbench for enabling experimentation and exploration of synergistic algorithms not only for instruments within a mission, but also including the PoR and other ESO missions. 3. A series of concrete Open-Source Science demonstrations including use cases that span science discovery and end-user applications with direct societal impact. While our ultimate goal is to include all of the main missions comprising the Earth System Observatory, in our initial 2 years we will focus on AOS and SBG, two missions for which specific synergisms have been identified in a recent workshop. In this presentation we will describe our approach and discuss some illustrative examples of our framework.

Arlindo da SIlva↗

An Analytic Collaborative Framework for the Earth System Observatory

NASA's Earth System Observatory groundbreaking observations will provide critical measurements to address societal relevant problems in climate change, natural hazard mitigation, fighting forest fires, and improving real-time agricultural processes. Central to the ESO vision is the notion of Open-Source Science (OSS), a collaborative culture enabled by technology that promotes the open sharing of data, information, and knowledge aiming to facilitate and accelerate scientific understanding, and the agile development of applications for the benefit of society. The larger vision of an Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) calls for integrated Earth science frameworks that mirror the Earth by a proxy digital construct that includes km-scale resolution Earth system models and data assimilation systems along with an integrated set of analytic tools to enable the next generation of science discoveries and evidence-based decision making. The goal of this project is to develop an Analytic Collaborative Framework for ESO missions, based on realistic, science-based observing system simulations and the Program of Record (PoR). Tying it all together is a cloud-based cyberinfrastructure that will enable each uniquely designed satellite in the Earth System Observatory to work in tandem to create a 3D, holistic view of Earth. In this presentation, we lay the technological groundwork for enabling such a vision. Our approach consists of the 3 main interconnected building blocks: 1. Cloud-optimized representative datasets for ESO missions and the PoR to serve as basis for developing and prototyping an Analytic Collaborative Framework. 2. An Algorithm Workbench for enabling experimentation and exploration of synergistic algorithms not only for instruments within a mission, but also including the PoR and other ESO missions. 3. A series of concrete Open-Source Science demonstrations including use cases that span science discovery and end-user applications with direct societal impact. While our ultimate goal is to include all of the main missions comprising the Earth System Observatory, in our initial 2 years we will focus on AOS and SBG, two missions for which specific synergisms have been identified in a recent workshop. In this presentation we will describe our approach and discuss some illustrative examples of our framework.

Arlindo da SIlva↗

Enhancing Air Quality Applications in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region Using Satellite, Model, and Machine Learning Techniques

Air pollution in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region of South Asia is a severe issue, as increases in emissions over the past two decades have degraded air quality (AQ) across the region, which poses major threats to human health, the ecosystem, climate, and agriculture. A diversity of anthropogenic and natural emission sources including transportation, power plants, industries, open biomass burning of crop residue, forest fires, cooking and heating fires, and dust storms contribute to unhealthy AQ and transboundary pollution issues in the region. Further complicating matters is the importance of meteorology and terrain on AQ, especially in the Kathmandu Valley where extreme haze episodes frequently develop from the atmospherically stable weather conditions during the winter monsoon. This study uses state-of-the-art satellite observations and modeling capabilities in conjunction with machine learning techniques to develop a comprehensive toolkit for enhancing AQ monitoring and forecasting in HKH. The toolkit incorporates new generation satellite observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS), and Advanced Meteorological Imager (AMI), which provide unprecedented resolution on aerosols and trace gases, including nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), formaldehyde (CH2O), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O 3 ), and aerosol optical depth (AOD). Value-added products [e.g., Particulate matter with diameters less than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5)] are developed from the suite of satellite observations to further improve AQ monitoring capabilities in the region. The satellite products are also used to assimilate a high-resolution chemical transport model tailored for the HKH region, which is providing daily, 54-hour AQ forecasts with horizontal grid spacings of 12- and 4-km. This presentation will provide an overview of the suite of satellite- and model-based products in the AQ toolkit and application and performance of the toolkit for AQ monitoring and forecasting in HKH.

Air Quality↗

Enhancing Air Quality Applications in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region Using Satellite, Model, and Machine Learning Techniques

Air pollution in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region of South Asia is a severe issue, as increases in emissions over the past two decades have degraded air quality (AQ) across the region, which poses major threats to human health, the ecosystem, climate, and agriculture. A diversity of anthropogenic and natural emission sources including transportation, power plants, industries, open biomass burning of crop residue, forest fires, cooking and heating fires, and dust storms contribute to unhealthy AQ and transboundary pollution issues in the region. Further complicating matters is the importance of meteorology and terrain on AQ, especially in the Kathmandu Valley where extreme haze episodes frequently develop from the atmospherically stable weather conditions during the winter monsoon. This study uses state-of-the-art satellite observations and modeling capabilities in conjunction with machine learning techniques to develop a comprehensive toolkit for enhancing AQ monitoring and forecasting in HKH. The toolkit incorporates new generation satellite observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS), and Advanced Meteorological Imager (AMI), which provide unprecedented resolution on aerosols and trace gases, including nitrogen dioxide, formaldehyde, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and ozone, and aerosol optical depth. Value-added products, such as level 4 PM2.5 products, are developed from the suite of satellite observations to further improve AQ monitoring capabilities in the region. The satellite products are also used to assimilate a high-resolution chemical transport model tailored for the HKH region, which is providing daily, 54-hour AQ forecasts with horizontal grid spacings of 12- and 4-km. This presentation will provide an overview of the suite of satellite- and model-based products in the AQ toolkit and application and performance of the toolkit for AQ monitoring and forecasting in HKH.

Forecasting↗

Smoke and fire characteristics for cerrado and deforestation burns in Brazil - BASE-B experiment

Five test fires were performed during August and September 1990 in the cerrado (savannalike region) in central Brazil (three fires) and tropical moist forest (two fires) in the eastern Amazon. This paper details the gases released, the ratios of the gases to each other and to particulate matter, fuel loads, and the fraction consumed (combustion factors), and the fire behavior associated with biomass consumption. Models are presented for evaluating emission factors for CH4, CO2, CO, H2, and particles less than 2.5 micron diam (PM2.5) as a function of combustion efficiency. The ratio of carbon released as CO2 (combustion efficiency) for the cerrado fires averaged 0.94 and for the deforestation fires it decreased from 0.88 for the flaming phase to less than 0.80 during the smoldering phase of combustion. For tropical ecosystems, emissions of most products of incomplete combustion are projected to be lower than previous estimates for savanna ecosystems and somewhat higher for fires used for deforestation purposes.

Ward, D. E.↗

Mapping Forest Carbon Stocks to Understand Carbon Implications of Treatment on Wildfire for the Calwood Fire, Boulder County Colorado

Recent, record-breaking wildfire activity in the western U.S. illustrates the need for fire mitigation, such as forest fuels reduction treatments. Forests serve as crucial carbon sinks that combat the increasing effects of climate change, but fuels reduction treatments may remove carbon from forested systems. As a result, forest managers need to find a balance between fire mitigation and carbon preservation. This project partnered with Boulder County Parks and Open Space (BCPOS) and the University of Colorado, Denver to investigate the 2020 Cal-Wood fire in Boulder County, Colorado. Using remote sensing data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Imagery, and LiDAR, we mapped post-fire forest carbon pools and compared these values with values derived from field measurements. The analysis suggested that fuels reduction treatments did not reduce carbon loss in the presence of wildfire enough to clearly distinguish post-fire carbon between treated and untreated areas. However, the final carbon maps provide BCPOS and researchers with an opportunity to explore carbon estimation models based on remote sensing data as well as a framework to evaluate fuels reduction treatment effectiveness and impact on forest carbon stocks for future wildfire events.

Sarah Hettema↗

Estimating tropical-forest density profiles from multibaseline interferometric SAR

Vertical profiles of forest density are potentially robust indicators of forest biomass, fire susceptibility and ecosystem function. Tropical forests, which are among the most dense and complicated targets for remote sensing, contain about 45% of the world's biomass. Remote sensing of tropical forest structure is therefore an important component to global biomass and carbon monitoring. This paper shows preliminary results of a multibasline interfereomtric SAR (InSAR) experiment over primary, secondary, and selectively logged forests at La Selva Biological Station in Costa Rica. The profile shown results from inverse Fourier transforming 8 of the 18 baselines acquired. A profile is shown compared to lidar and field measurements. Results are highly preliminary and for qualitative assessment only. Parameter estimation will eventually replace Fourier inversion as the means to producing profiles.

profiles↗

Colorado Front Range Disasters: Understanding the Impact of Forest Management on the Cameron Peak and CalWood Fire

Along the Colorado Front Range, forest management has gained significant attention due to uncharacteristically large fires that burned late in 2020. The Cameron Peak Fire (largest in Colorado recorded history) and the CalWood Fire collectively burned an estimated 219,019 acres from August through December of 2020. Project partners at the Coalition for the Poudre River Watershed, Colorado State Forest Service, Ben Delatour Scout Ranch, The Nature Conservancy, Colorado Forest Restoration Institute, and Colorado State University were interested in understanding the effectiveness of previous forest treatments in reducing burn severity within the Cameron Peak Fire and the CalWood Fire. We first collated a forest treatment dataset from pre-existing datasets by reclassifying over 29,000 treatments, which occurred across the Northern Colorado Front Range between 1970-2020. Secondly, we mapped three burn severity indices using Landsat 8 OLI and Sentinel-2 MSI Earth observations and compared them to soil burn severity field data. Thirdly, a total of 35 topographic, disturbance, forest structure, and treatment predictor variables were generated across the fires. Finally, we assessed relationships between these predictor variables and burn severity using the random forest algorithm. Model results indicate that the primary drivers of burn severity were elevation and distance to treatment edge for the Cameron Peak Fire and fire area and forest canopy cover for the CalWood Fire. Further analysis of these variables paired with field data is necessary to understand the relationship between burn severity and treatments to guide future restoration efforts, improve forest resiliency, and mitigate fire risks.

Neal Swayze↗

Global Burned Area and Biomass Burning Emissions from Small Fires

In several biomes, including croplands, wooded savannas, and tropical forests, many small fires occur each year that are well below the detection limit of the current generation of global burned area products derived from moderate resolution surface reflectance imagery. Although these fires often generate thermal anomalies that can be detected by satellites, their contributions to burned area and carbon fluxes have not been systematically quantified across different regions and continents. Here we developed a preliminary method for combining 1-km thermal anomalies (active fires) and 500 m burned area observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to estimate the influence of these fires. In our approach, we calculated the number of active fires inside and outside of 500 m burn scars derived from reflectance data. We estimated small fire burned area by computing the difference normalized burn ratio (dNBR) for these two sets of active fires and then combining these observations with other information. In a final step, we used the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) biogeochemical model to estimate the impact of these fires on biomass burning emissions. We found that the spatial distribution of active fires and 500 m burned areas were in close agreement in ecosystems that experience large fires, including savannas across southern Africa and Australia and boreal forests in North America and Eurasia. In other areas, however, we observed many active fires outside of burned area perimeters. Fire radiative power was lower for this class of active fires. Small fires substantially increased burned area in several continental-scale regions, including Equatorial Asia (157%), Central America (143%), and Southeast Asia (90%) during 2001-2010. Globally, accounting for small fires increased total burned area by approximately by 35%, from 345 Mha/yr to 464 Mha/yr. A formal quantification of uncertainties was not possible, but sensitivity analyses of key model parameters caused estimates of global burned area increases from small fires to vary between 24% and 54%. Biomass burning carbon emissions increased by 35% at a global scale when small fires were included in GFED3, from 1.9 Pg C/yr to 2.5 Pg C/yr. The contribution of tropical forest fires to year-to-year variability in carbon fluxes increased because small fires amplified emissions from Central America, South America and Southeast Asia-regions where drought stress and burned area varied considerably from year to year in response to El Nino-Southern Oscillation and other climate modes.

Randerson, J. T.↗

Stratifying Tropical Fires by Land Cover: Insights into Amazonian Fires, Aerosol Loading, and Regional Deforestation

This study analyzes changes in the number of fires detected on forest, grass, and transition lands during the 2002-2009 biomass burning seasons using fire detection data and co-located land cover classifications from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We find that the total number of detected fires correlates well with MODIS mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) from year to year, in accord with other studies. However, we also show that the ratio of forest to savanna fires varies substantially from year to year. Forest fires have trended downward, on average, since the beginning of 2006 despite a modest increase in 2007. Our study suggests that high particulate matter loading detected in 2007 was likely due to a large number of savanna/agricultural fires that year. Finally, we illustrate that the correlation between annual Brazilian deforestation estimates and MODIS fires is considerably higher when fires are stratified by MODIS-derived land cover classifications.

TenHoeve, J. E.↗

Persistent Effects of Fire Severity on Early Successional Forests in Interior Alaska

There has been a recent increase in the frequency and extent of wildfires in interior Alaska, and this trend is predicted to continue under a warming climate. Although less well documented, corresponding increases in fire severity are expected. Previous research from boreal forests in Alaska and western Canada indicate that severe fire promotes the recruitment of deciduous tree species and decreases the relative abundance of black spruce (Picea mariana) immediately after fire. Here we extend these observations by (1) examining changes in patterns of aspen and spruce density and biomass that occurred during the first two decades of post-fire succession, and (2) comparing patterns of tree composition in relation to variations in post-fire organic layer depth in four burned black spruce forests in interior Alaska after 10-20 years of succession.Wefound that initial effects of fire severity on recruitment and establishment of aspen and black spruce were maintained by subsequent effects of organic layer depth and initial plant biomass on plant growth during post-fire succession. The proportional contribution of aspen (Populus tremuloides) to total stand biomass remained above 90% during the first and second decades of succession in severely burned sites, while in lightly burned sites the proportional contribution of aspen was reduced due to a 40- fold increase in spruce biomass in these sites. Relationships between organic layer depth and stem density and biomass were consistently negative for aspen, and positive or neutral for black spruce in all four burns. Our results suggest that initial effects of post-fire organic layer depths on deciduous recruitment are likely to translate into a prolonged phase of deciduous dominance during post-fire succession in severely burned stands. This shift in vegetation distribution has important implications for climate-albedo feedbacks, future fire regime, wildlife habitat quality and natural resources for indigenous subsistence activities in interior Alaska.

Shenoy, Aditi↗

Techniques for Estimating Emissions Factors from Forest Burning: ARCTAS and SEAC4RS Airborne Measurements Indicate Which Fires Produce Ozone

Previous studies of emission factors from biomass burning are prone to large errors since they ignore the interplay of mixing and varying pre-fire background CO2 levels. Such complications severely affected our studies of 446 forest fire plume samples measured in the Western US by the science teams of NASA's SEAC4RS and ARCTAS airborne missions. Consequently we propose a Mixed Effects Regression Emission Technique (MERET) to check techniques like the Normalized Emission Ratio Method (NERM), where use of sequential observations cannot disentangle emissions and mixing. We also evaluate a simpler "consensus" technique. All techniques relate emissions to fuel burned using C(sub burn) = delta C(sub tot) added to the fire plume, where C(sub tot) approximately equals (CO2 + CO). Mixed-effects regression can estimate pre-fire background values of Ctot (indexed by observation j) simultaneously with emissions factors indexed by individual species i, delta epsilon lambda tau alpha−x(sub i)/(C(sub burn))i,j., MERET and "consensus" require more than two emissions indicators. Our studies excluded samples where exogenous CO or CH4 might have been fed into a fire plume, mimicking emission. We sought to let the data on 13 gases and particulate properties suggest clusters of variables and plume types, using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF). While samples were mixtures, the NMF unmixing suggested purer burn types. Particulate properties (bscat, babs, SSA, AAE) and gas-phase emissions were interrelated. Finally, we sought a simple categorization useful for modeling ozone production in plumes. Two kinds of fires produced high ozone: those with large fuel nitrogen as evidenced by remnant CH3CN in the plumes, and also those from very intense large burns. Fire types with optimal ratios of delta-NOy/delta- HCHO associate with the highest additional ozone per unit Cburn, Perhaps these plumes exhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics. Perhaps these plumes exhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics.

fires↗