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207 records · Page 12

NASA GEOS-CF: Overview, Applications, Future Direction

Since 2019, the NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been used to generate global, near-real-time estimates and daily five-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at a horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km) from the surface up to the lower mesosphere. This composition forecast system (“GEOS-CF”) combines the GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module to deliver detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants, including the policy-relevant species such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Because GEOS-CF includes atmospheric levels up through the stratosphere, this system has been leveraged to support the Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) satellite mission and provide stratospheric intrusion alerts to ground-based monitoring stations. We will present recent advances to GEOS-CF which includes assimilation of satellite observations to produce more accurate model analyses. We further discuss our future plans for a composition reanalysis.

K. Emma Knowland↗

Global-to-local air quality forecasts using the NASA GEOS Composition Forecast System

Since 2019, the NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been used to generate global, near-real-time estimates and daily five-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at a horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km) from the surface up to the lower mesosphere. This composition forecast system (“GEOS-CF”) combines the GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module to deliver detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants, including the policy-relevant species such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Because GEOS-CF includes atmospheric levels up through the stratosphere, this system has been leveraged to support the Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) satellite mission and provide stratospheric intrusion alerts to ground-based monitoring stations. We will present recent advances to GEOS-CF which target increased computational efficiency and accuracy. These include the incorporation of simplified chemistry mechanisms to accelerate model forecasts, use of model-observation data fusion techniques to provide highly localized forecasts, and assimilation of satellite observations to produce more accurate model analyses. We further discuss our attempts to make these tools publicly available on platforms outside the NASA domain, such as Google Earth Engine and Amazon Web Services with the goal to facilitate the integration of state-of-the-science air quality information onto platforms used by stakeholders, air quality managers, and the public.

Emma Knowland↗

Performance of Heterogeneous Sulfate Aerosol Formation Mechanisms Against Aircraft and Ground-Based Observations in Seoul, South Korea

Haze events are a common occurrence in East Asia, where local meteorology combines with anthropogenic emissions under certain conditions to create rapid increases in secondary aerosol. Often these events are driven by rapid production of secondary sulfate-nitrate-ammonium (SIA) aerosol. Models have typically included simple parameterizations of the production of sulfate during these events which vary widely in their magnitude. There are a range of different mechanistic descriptions of the chemical processes occurring during these events in large part due to poor constraints on aerosol pH and transition metal content, both of which are important to determining the key pathway(s) driving aerosol production. Here, we use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to interpret detailed ground and aircraft observations from May and June 2016 during the Korea-United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) field study to evaluate the mechanistic pathways governing sulfate production during a haze event. We apply our model of sulfate production mechanisms to ground-based speciated aerosol measurements in winter, summer, and fall in Seoul.

Katherine R Travis↗

Source Contributions to Fine Particulate Matter and Attributable Mortality in India and the Surrounding Region

Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is a leading mortality risk factor in India and the surrounding region of South Asia. This study evaluates the contribution of emission sectors and fuels to PM 2.5 mass for 29 states in India and 6 surrounding countries (Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar) by combining source-specific emission estimates, stretched grid simulations from a chemical transport model, high resolution hybrid PM 2.5 , and disease-specific mortality estimates. We find that 1.02 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.78-1.26) million deaths in South Asia attributable to ambient PM 2.5 in 2019 were primarily from three leading sectors: residential combustion (28%), industry (15%), and power generation (12%). Solid biofuel is the leading combustible fuel contributing to the PM 2.5 -attributable mortality (31%), followed by coal (17%), and oil and gas (14%). State-level analyses reveal higher residential combustion contributions (35%-39%) in states (Delhi, Uttar-Pradesh, Haryana) with high ambient PM 2.5 (>95 µg/m 3 ). The combined mortality burden associated with residential combustion (ambient) and household air pollution (HAP) in India is 0.72 million (95% CI:0.54-0.89) (68% attributable to HAP, 32% attributable to residential combustion). Our results illustrate the potential to reduce PM 2.5 mass and improve population health by reducing emissions from traditional energy sources across multiple sources in South Asia.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

China's Contribution to Arctic Black Carbon Declined From 2009 to 2022

Black carbon (BC) aerosol is an important driver of Arctic warming, and China used to be a major contributor to the Arctic BC burden through long-range atmospheric transport. Here we show that China's contribution declined significantly from 2009 to 2022, primarily due to reductions in domestic BC emissions following the implementation of clean air policies. Global chemistry-transport model simulations indicate a relative decline of ∼3% yr −1 ( p < 0.05) in China's Arctic BC contribution, exceeding the decrease rate in the underlying emission inventory. Sensitivity simulations further suggest that climate change-induced shifts in atmospheric transport may have amplified this decline. Observations of aerosol absorption coefficients (σ ap ) at Arctic background observatories revealed steeper declines in σ ap when modeled China-to-total BC ratios were higher. Moreover, σ ap correlated positively with modeled BC from China, with stronger relationships as the modeled China-to-total BC ratios increased. Together, these results provide robust evidence that China's emission reductions have diminished its role in Arctic BC, contributing an estimated 0.02 W m −2 decrease in the direct radiative effect during the Arctic haze season.

GEOS-chem model↗

Impact of NO2 Profile Shape in OMI Tropospheric NO2 Retrievals

Nitrogen oxides (NOx NO + NO2) are key actors in air quality and climate change. Tropospheric NO2 columns from the nadir-viewing satellite sensors have been widely used to understand sources and chemistry of NOx. We have implemented several improvements to the operational algorithm developed at NASA GSFC and retrieved tropospheric NO2 columns. We present tropospheric NO2 validation studies of the new OMI Standard Product version 2.1 using ground-based and in-situ aircraft measurements. We show how vertical profile of scattering weight and a-priori NO2 profile shapes, which are taken from chemistry-transport models, affect air mass factor (AMF) and therefore tropospheric NO2 retrievals. Users can take advantage of scattering weights information that is made available in the operational NO2 product. Improved tropospheric NO2 data retrieved using thoroughly evaluated high spatial resolution NO2 profiles are helpful to test models.

OMI↗

Forecasting with the GEOS-CF System and Other NASA Resources to Support Air Quality Management

Air quality (AQ) is a major and growing concern for public health around the world. Economic development, population growth, and climate change are all expected to exacerbate already poor AQ in many regions. Furthermore, AQ is often only sparsely monitored with reference-grade in-situ instruments. NASA resources and products have the potential to help in addressing this AQ data gap. The GEOS-CF (Goddard Earth Observing System – Composition Forecasting) global atmospheric composition modeling system is run each day at a global scale to provide recent estimates and five-day forecasts at hourly temporal resolution of atmospheric constituents relevant to AQ. NASA satellite missions (along with those of other space agencies) provide remotely-sensed estimates of atmospheric composition relevant to AQ. This paper gives a brief overview of these capabilities, and outlines the efforts underway to combine model forecasts, satellite retrievals, and surface-based measurements to provide more comprehensive and accurate estimates and forecasts of local AQ which will be broadly applicable and accessible globally.

GEOS-CF↗