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At least 217 records · Page 12

Model Data Archive for Manuscript Titled "Evaluation of a Coupled Surface–Subsurface Hydrologic Model Using Dense Water‑Level Sensors in a Mixed Urban–Rural Watershed"

This archive provides scripts, input files, and datasets used for the implementation and evaluation of a fully coupled surface–subsurface hydrologic model in the Neches River Basin, southeast Texas. The study uses the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) to simulate coupled surface–subsurface hydrologic processes over a mixed urban–rural watershed and evaluates model performance using a dense network of 136 in situ water-level sensors, nine U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauges, and SSEBop-derived evapotranspiration estimates during the period October 2014–June 2024. The workflow is implemented primarily in Python 3 using the Watershed Workflow package. The Jupyter notebooks can be executed using open-source software such as Anaconda JupyterLab or Visual Studio Code. Other data files include TXT, CSV, XML, SHP, TIF, NetCDF, HDF5, and ExodusII files, which can be processed using the provided Python scripts. ATS input files are provided in XML format and can be edited using any commonly used text editor. This archive contains: *Scripts and input files used to generate the ATS model setup, including watershed discretization, mesh generation, parameter mapping, and model configuration. *Jupyter notebooks used for preprocessing observational data, evaluating streamflow, water levels, and evapotranspiration, computing performance metrics, and generating the figures presented in the manuscript. *ATS simulation outputs and processed observational datasets, including OneRain and DD6 water-level sensors, USGS streamflow observations, GIS data, and supporting spatial datasets used throughout the study.

Dense water-level sensor network↗

DEEPEN 3D PFA Favorability Models and 2D Favorability Maps at Newberry Volcano

DEEPEN stands for DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments. Part of the DEEPEN project involved developing and testing a methodology for a 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) for multiple play types (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). This was tested using new and existing geoscientific exploration datasets at Newberry Volcano. This GDR submission includes images, data, and models related to the 3D favorability and uncertainty models and the 2D favorability and uncertainty maps. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology is based on the method proposed by Poux et al. (2020), which uses the Leapfrog Geothermal software with the Edge extension to conduct PFA in 3D. This method uses all available data to build a 3D geodata model which can be broken down into smaller blocks and analyzed with advanced geostatistical methods. Each data set is imported into a 3D model in Leapfrog and divided into smaller blocks. Conditional queries can then be used to assign each block an index value which conditionally ranks each block's favorability, from 0-5 with 5 being most favorable, for each model (e.g., lithologic, seismic, magnetic, structural). The values between 0-5 assigned to each block are referred to as index values. The final step of the process is to combine all the index models to create a favorability index. This involves multiplying each index model by a given weight and then summing the resulting values. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology follows this approach, but split up by the specific geologic components of each play type. These components are defined as follows for each magmatic play type: 1. Conventional hydrothermal plays in magmatic environments: Heat, fluid, and permeability 2. Superhot EGS plays: Heat, thermal insulation, and producibility (the ability to create and sustain fractures suitable for and EGS reservoir) 3. Supercritical plays: Heat, supercritical fluid, pressure seal, and producibility (the proper permeability and pressure conditions to allow production of supercritical fluid) More information on these components and their development can be found in Kolker et al., 2022. For the purposes of subsurface imaging, it is easier to detect a permeable fluid-filled reservoir than it is to detect separate fluid and permeability components. Therefore, in this analysis, we combine fluid and permeability for conventional hydrothermal plays, and supercritical fluid and producibility for supercritical plays. More information on this process is described in the following sections. We also project the 3D favorability volumes onto 2D surfaces for simplified joint interpretation, and we incorporate an uncertainty component. Uncertainty was modeled using the best approach for the dataset in question, for the datasets where we had enough information to do so. Identifying which subsurface parameters are the least resolved can help qualify current PFA results and focus future efforts in data collection. Where possible, the resulting uncertainty models/indices were weighted using the same weights applied to the respective datasets, and summed, following the PFA methodology above, but for uncertainty. There are two different versions of the Leapfrog model and associated favorability models: - v1.0: The first release in June 2023 - v2.1: The second release, with improvements made to the earthquake catalog (included additional identified events, removed duplicate events), to the temperature model (fixed a deep BHT), and to the index models (updated the seismicity-heat source index models for supercritical and EGS, and the resistivity-insulation index models for all three play types). Also uses the jet color map rather than the magma color map for improved interpretability. - v2.1.1: Updated to include v2.0 uncertainty results (see below for uncertainty model versions) There are two different versions of the associated uncertainty models: - v1.0: The first release in June 2023 - v2.0: The se...

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Joint impedance and facies inversion of time-lapse seismic data for improving monitoring of CO 2 incidentally stored from CO 2 EOR

Time-lapse seismic monitoring is an effective and proven technology for mapping the distribution of CO 2 in a subsurface reservoir. When injected CO 2 displaces other reservoir fluids, porous-medium properties are changed and thus the seismic impedance changes, causing time-lapse seismic amplitude differences in the injection zones. The analysis and interpretation of images created from these amplitude differences can provide information about reservoir architecture and the CO 2 migration within the reservoir. Incorporating seismic inversion and rock physics into the interpretation of time-lapse seismic data can considerably improve the modeling and monitoring to detect and assess the location of CO 2 over time. The joint inversion method presented in this paper has an integral representation of the geology in the inversion algorithm using elastic facies, which provides information about the spatial distribution of the geologic heterogeneities controlling the movement of fluids in the reservoir. The method was successfully applied to time-lapse seismic data from a mature oil field undergoing CO 2 enhanced oil recovery. The estimated seismic acoustic impedances and facies reflect the characteristics of individual geologic facies and fluid conditions of the reservoir subject to CO 2 injection. Finally, the probabilities estimated by the joint impedance and facies inversion for the reservoir's litho-fluid facies can be used for forecasting CO 2 saturation and pressure changes within the target reservoir.

4D seismic↗

Early Holocene cold snaps and their expression in the moraine record of the eastern European Alps

Glaciers preserve climate variations in their geological and geomorphological records, which makes them prime candidates for climate reconstructions. Investigating the glacier–climate system over the past millennia is particularly relevant first because the amplitude and frequency of natural climate variability during the Holocene provides the climatic context against which modern, human-induced climate change must be assessed. Second, the transition from the last glacial to the current interglacial promises important insights into the climate system during warming, which is of particular interest with respect to ongoing climate change. Evidence of stable ice margin positions that record cooling during the past 12 kyr are preserved in two glaciated valleys of the Silvretta Massif in the eastern European Alps, the Jamtal (JAM) and the Laraintal (LAR). We mapped and dated moraines in these catchments including historical ridges using beryllium-10 surface exposure dating (10Be SED) techniques and correlate resulting moraine formation intervals with climate proxy records to evaluate the spatial and temporal scale of these cold phases. The new geochronologies indicate the formation of moraines during the early Holocene (EH), ca. 11.0 ± 0.7 ka (n = 19). Boulder ages along historical moraines (n = 6) suggest at least two glacier advances during the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1250–1850 CE) around 1300 CE and in the second half of the 18th century. An earlier advance to the same position may have occurred around 500 CE. The Jamtal and Laraintal moraine chronologies provide evidence that millennial-scale EH warming was superimposed by centennial-scale cooling. The timing of EH moraine formation coincides with brief temperature drops identified in local and regional paleoproxy records, most prominently with the Preboreal Oscillation (PBO) and is consistent with moraine deposition in other catchments in the European Alps and in the Arctic region. This consistency points to cooling beyond the local scale and therefore a regional or even hemispheric climate driver. Freshwater input sourced from the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), which changed circulation patterns in the North Atlantic, is a plausible explanation for EH cooling and moraine formation in the Nordic region and in Europe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data from: "Warming of alpine tundra enhances belowground production and shifts community towards resource acquisition traits"

This archive contains data used to draw conclusions in “Warming of alpine tundra enhances belowground production and shifts community towards resource acquisition traits”, by Yang et al. 2020. Data were collected on Niwot Ridge, in an alpine meadow within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE) field sites in Colorado, USA. Samples were also processed in the U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, in Boise, Idaho. File formats in this archive include comma-separated values (.csv), portable document format (.pdf), Microsoft Excel (.xlsx), and two types of geospatial files: keyhole markup language (.kml), and ESRI shapefiles (.shp). Leaf scans are .jpg images, and root scans are .tiff/.tif images.The .csv files can be opened using R, Microsoft Excel, or any simple text-editing software such as TextEdit and Notepad. Microsoft Excel files can be opened using Microsoft Excel, and .pdf files can be opened with Adobe Acrobat Reader, Preview, or other compatible programs. Scanned images can be opened using any photo and/or picture viewing software.The .kml file can be opened using Google Earth and Google Maps, and the shapefiles can be opened by any programs compatible with shapefiles, such as the ArcGIS Desktop suite, and QGIS.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Measures of belowground net primary productivity (BNPP) are required to understand whether aboveground net primary production (ANPP) changes reflect changes in allocation or are indicative of a whole plant NPP response. Plant functional traits provide a key way to scale from the individual plant to the community level, and provide insight into drivers of NPP responses to environmental change. We used infrared heaters to warm an alpine plant community at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, and applied supplemental water to compensate for soil water loss induced by warming. We measured ANPP, BNPP, and leaf and root functional traits across treatments after 5 years of continuous warming. Community-level ANPP and total NPP (ANPP + BNPP) did not respond to heating or watering, but BNPP increased in response to heating. Heating decreased community-level leaf dry matter content and increased total root length, indicating a shift in strategy from resource conservation to acquisition in response to warming.

13C/12C isotope ratio↗

Evaluation of coal-associated sediments, wastes, and AMD sludge in the Southern Appalachian Basin as feedstock materials for REE and Li recovery

Critical minerals (CM) such as rare earth elements (REE+) and Lithium (Li) are essential to technological innovation, energy transitions, global economic and defense security, necessitating the search for unconventional resources and efficient recovery methods to avert supply chain disruptions. Here, this study evaluates coal-associated sediments (underclay and roof rock) and wastes from the Pennsylvanian Pottsville Formation of the Southern Appalachian Basin (SAB) as potential feedstocks for CM recovery. A total of 34 samples (15 underclays, 12 roof rocks, 5 Acid Mine Drainage (AMD) sludges, and 2 coal mining wastes) were characterized using XRD, XRF, ICP-MS, and μ-XRF analytical methods. The REE+ and Li concentrations of these materials ranged from 46.8 to 334.4 ppm and from 11.1 to 519 ppm, respectively, with one underclay sample (Hendrix 3456) yielding the highest values for both. Bulk mineralogy for all samples was dominated by aluminosilicate clay phases, particularly illite and kaolinite. All samples exhibited REY def, rel% values >26% and C outl indices that ranged from 0.69 to 0.94, classifying their REE ore potential as Category II (Promising) as defined by Seredin and Dai (2012). Extractability tests (EPA method 3051 A) yielded low REE+ and Li recoveries, with maximum values of 3.3% and 3.6%, respectively, suggesting associations with resistant minerals like clay and phosphates. Elemental mapping indicates that REE+ is associated with phosphate, whereas statistical analysis suggests that REE+ are associated with aluminosilicates, suggesting heterogeneous associations or minimal phosphate contribution. Li also correlated positively with Al 2 O 3 , indicating an aluminosilicate host. This study highlights the potential of coal-associated sediments in the SAB.

Clay minerals↗

WELLS Interactive Application

The Wellbore Exploration and Location Logistic System (WELLS) Interactive Application is an interactive tool to enable easy exploration and visualization of the living national wellbore database (WELLS Database (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/wells_database)). The tool and underlying database were created and are maintained by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), providing visualization of the more than six million public wellbore records from more than 65 authoritative state, federal, and tribal resources. The WELLS Interactive Application serves up wellbore data from oil, gas, underground injection, research, geothermal, geotechnical, groundwater, and other types of wells in a single, standardized, unified system. In addition to the surface location of these wells, the underlying database combines select key attributes for features such as well age, depth, and operating status. The system also provides users with references back to the original sources used in this unified platform. The underlying data can be accessed through the WELLS Database: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/wells_database Additional Information: The WELLS Interactive Application (formerly titled CO2-Locate) enables visualization and access to the public wellbore records through an intuitive web-based mapping tool. The WELLS Interactive Application was designed to help users visualize, query, analyze, and download wellbore records. Public wellbore points are included as a layer in the Map page, called Public Wells. Additionally, a multivariate hexagon grid summarizing well density from proprietary well data, called Well Density, is included to identify data gaps between the public and proprietary well data. Filtering functionalities in the tool allow these two layers to be spatially filtered by state, county, or basin as well as by status, type, true vertical depth, and spud year. The WELLS Interactive Application also contains a Near Me tool can be used to search and explore wellbore data within a user-defined distance of a specified location on the map, which can also be downloaded. The Query tool allows users to query the selected or filtered wells in the Public Wells layer and export the data. For additional information on these tool functionalities, see the help documentation on the About page of the tool. Notes for Consideration: The Well Density layer provided in this application is derived from proprietary wellbore data, the records of which do not always contain values for key features (status, type, true vertical depth, or spud year). Therefore, data might not be available when layers are queried for all filter combinations. Additionally, visualizing layers and applying filters may take additional time to load (i.e., draw on the map) due to the large size of the data.

ccs↗

Integration of Large-Scale Electrical Imaging into Geological Framework Development and Refinement

Geologic framework models (GFMs) are critical to the construction of reliable simulation models of groundwater flow and contaminant transport. To support GFM development, direct information (e.g., core samples, fluid samples, hydraulic testing) tends to be sparse and separated by large distances relative to the spatial scales of aquifer heterogeneity. There are additional challenges associated with highly contaminated legacy waste sites, where drilling is particularly costly, and invasive sampling requires specialized handling and disposal of hazardous materials. At these sites in particular, non-invasive geophysical imaging can play an important role in filling spatial gaps between boreholes and reducing characterization costs by optimizing and minimizing the number of necessary boreholes. Here this paper presents a case study demonstrating the use of large-scale (> 30 km 2 ) electrical mapping to identify hydrostratigraphy and potential paleochannels at the Hanford Site, located in Washington State, USA. In two field campaigns, over 36 line-kilometers of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data were collected along 14 transects. ERT surveys were sited and performed to image critical aspects (e.g., paleochannels, stratigraphic contacts) of the subsurface, demonstrating a general workflow for integrating ERT with GFM development. Inconsistencies between the GFM and ERT were catalogued to provide a basis for future site characterization using complementary geophysical methods and (or) direct sampling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Subsurface Characterization and Machine Learning Predictions at Brady Hot Springs Results

Geothermal power plants typically show decreasing heat and power production rates over time. Mitigation strategies include optimizing the management of existing wells - increasing or decreasing the fluid flow rates across the wells - and drilling new wells at appropriate locations. The latter is expensive, time-consuming, and subject to many engineering constraints, but the former is a viable mechanism for periodic adjustment of the available fluid allocations. Data and supporting literature from a study describing a new approach combining reservoir modeling and machine learning to produce models that enable strategies for the mitigation of decreased heat and power production rates over time for geothermal power plants. The computational approach used enables translation of sets of potential flow rates for the active wells into reservoir-wide estimates of produced energy and discovery of optimal flow allocations among the studied sets. In our computational experiments, we utilize collections of simulations for a specific reservoir (which capture subsurface characterization and realize history matching) along with machine learning models that predict temperature and pressure timeseries for production wells. We evaluate this approach using an "open-source" reservoir we have constructed that captures many of the characteristics of Brady Hot Springs, a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA. Selected results from a reservoir model of Brady Hot Springs itself are presented to show successful application to an existing system. In both cases, energy predictions prove to be highly accurate: all observed prediction errors do not exceed 3.68% for temperatures and 4.75% for pressures. In a cumulative energy estimation, we observe prediction errors that are less than 4.04%. A typical reservoir simulation for Brady Hot Springs completes in approximately 4 hours, whereas our machine learning models yield accurate 20-year predictions for temperatures, pressures, and produced energy in 0.9 seconds. This paper aims to demonstrate how the models and techniques from our study can be applied to achieve rapid exploration of controlled parameters and optimization of other geothermal reservoirs. Includes a synthetic, yet realistic, model of a geothermal reservoir, referred to as open-source reservoir (OSR). OSR is a 10-well (4 injection wells and 6 production wells) system that resembles Brady Hot Springs (a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA) at a high level but has a number of sufficiently modified characteristics (which renders any possible similarity between specific characteristics like temperatures and pressures as purely random). We study OSR through CMG simulations with a wide range of flow allocation scenarios. Includes a dataset with 101 simulated scenarios that cover the period of time between 2020 and 2040 and a link to the published paper about this project, where we focus on the Machine Learning work for predicting OSR's energy production based on the simulation data, as well as a link to the GitHub repository where we have published the code we have developed (please refer to the repository's readme file to see instructions on how to run the code). Additional links are included to associated work led by the USGS to identify geologic factors associated with well productivity in geothermal fields. Below are the high-level steps for applying the same modeling + ML process to other geothermal reservoirs: 1. Develop a geologic model of the geothermal field. The location of faults, upflow zones, aquifers, etc. need to be accounted for as accurately as possible 2. The geologic model needs to be converted to a reservoir model that can be used in a reservoir simulator, such as, for instance, CMG STARS, TETRAD, or FALCON 3. Using native state modeling, the initial temperature and pressure distributions are evaluated, and they become the initial conditions for dynamic reservoir simulations 4....

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Monitoring Seismic Velocity Changes Across the San Jacinto Fault Using Train‐Generated Seismic Tremors

Abstract Microseismic noise has been used for seismic velocity monitoring. However, such signals are dominated by low‐frequency surface waves that are not ideal for detecting changes associated with small tectonic processes. Here we show that it is possible to extract stable, high‐frequency body waves using seismic tremors generated by freight trains. Such body waves allow us to focus on small velocity perturbations in the crust with high spatial resolution. We report on 10 years of seismic velocity temporal changes at the San Jacinto Fault. We observe and map a two‐month‐long episode of velocity changes with complex spatial distribution and interpret the velocity perturbation as produced by a previously undocumented slow‐slip event. We verify the hypothesis through numerical simulations and locate this event along a fault segment believed to be locked. Such a slow‐slip event stresses its surroundings and may trigger a major earthquake on a fault section approaching failure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Digitizing Oil & Gas Well Regulatory Records from Illinois with the CATALOG OGRRE Tool

This effort demonstrates the functionality of the CATALOG Oil and Gas Regulatory Record digitizEr—OGRRE. OGRRE is being developed for automated mapping of fields on scanned oil and gas paper records to a uniform tabular format using advances in machine learning and optical character recognition.

Shay, Jacob [NETL Site Support Contractor, Nationa↗

Optimization of the Post-Operational Phase on Two Belgian Multi-Unit Nuclear Power Plants: the Case of the Non-Fissile Irradiated Core Items - 20156

The current legal framework in Belgium foresees the progressive phase out of nuclear power between October 2022 (Doel 3) and December 2025 (Doel 2). Upon its definitive shutdown, each unit of the Tihange and Doel sites will enter a Post-Operational Phase (POP) and be prepared for its Decontamination and Decommissioning (D and D). Prior to obtaining the D and D license, the Operator Electrabel is legally required to remove any non-fissile irradiated core items stored in the deactivation pools. The non-fissile irradiated core items consist essentially of control rods, poison rods and source thimbles as well as thimble plugs and foreign materials irradiated during operation: - Their significant content in highly radiant radionuclides (up to 6 TBq of Co-60 per kg of irradiated material) renders all existing operational waste management processes inadequate due to insufficient biological shielding; - Their high concentrations in long-lived radionuclides call for their disposal in a geological repository for which no final design nor waste acceptance criteria are expected prior to 2050. Uncertainties in the Belgian energy supply and security, however, require the Operator to be prepared for a partial nuclear phase out, where one or more units would benefit from lifetime extension while the remaining units would undergo decommissioning. The present paper aims at presenting how Electrabel, in partnership with Tractebel, addressed this challenge by maximizing the use of synergies within the respective sites as well as between both sites themselves, all the while accounting for site specificities. The most recent results and state of progress of the project will be detailed and the first lessons learned will be shared. The project has been split in multiple tasks and phased as follows: - An inventory phase aimed at mapping the contents, origin, composition and history of the non-fissile irradiated core items; - A pre-characterization phase based on neutron activation models; - A waste sorting phase aimed at separating waste forms for which an evacuation route exists from those for which such route does not exist; - A feasibility phase aimed at exploring all possible scenarios for the management of non-fissile irradiated core items and identifying the optimal feasible solution for each site; - A preparation phase (currently ongoing), developing further the optimal solution and ensuring that back-up solutions are available for any foreseeable change of context (licensing issue, modification in the nuclear phase-out program, etc.) and initiating early contacts with potential subcontractors for segmentation works and cask manufacturers, as well as the Belgian regulatory body and waste management agency. This phase also foresees the investigation of destructive and non-destructive radiological measurements to support the detailed characterization of the waste forms; - A realization phase (future work). (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Towards Automated/Semiautomated Extraction of Faults from Lidar Data

The Pajarito fault system is a complex zone of deformation and a seismically active region nestled within the Rio Grande rift in north-central New Mexico. Numerous laterally discontinuous faults and associated folds and fractures interact in a manner that has important implications for seismic hazards and risk mitigation. Previous efforts have established a foundation for the location of lineaments and structures in the Pajarito fault system; however, ensuring the completeness of the current lineament mapping is required for identifying areas for field validation, evaluating the potential for future seismic activity, and better understanding fault interaction. Assistance with this fault-mapping task via automated or semiautomated techniques as applied to lidar data over a large area of interest is highly desirable. A proof-of-concept processing flow which transforms lidar point-cloud data into a raster of surficial fault candidates is described and illustrated herein. We report these initial results hold great promise toward achieving our ultimate goal.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Integration of Soft Data Into Geostatistical Simulation of Categorical Variables

Uncertain or indirect “soft” data, such as geologic interpretation, driller’s logs, geophysical logs or imaging, offer potential constraints or “soft conditioning” to stochastic models of discrete categorical subsurface variables in hydrogeology such as hydrofacies. Previous bivariate geostatistical simulation algorithms have not fully addressed the impact of data uncertainty in formulation of the (co) kriging equations and the objective function in simulated annealing (or quenching). This paper introduces the geostatistical simulation code tsim-s, which accounts for categorical data uncertainty through a data “hardness” parameter. In generating geostatistical realizations with tsim-s, the uncertainty inherent to soft conditioning is factored into both 1) the data declustering and spatial correlation functions in cokriging and 2) the acceptance probability for change of category in simulated quenching. The degree or sensitivity to which soft data conditions a realization as a function of hardness can be quantified by mapping category probabilities derived from multiple realizations. In addition to point or borehole data, arrays of data (e.g., as derived from a depth-dependency function, probability map, or “prior realization”) can be used as soft conditioning. The tsim-s algorithm provides a theoretically sound and general framework for integrating datasets of variable location, resolution, and uncertainty into geostatistical simulation of categorical variables. A practical example shows how tsim-s is capable of generating a large-scale three-dimensional simulation including curvilinear features.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Two-Phase Fluid Flow Properties of Rough Fractures With Heterogeneous Wettability: Analysis With Lattice Boltzmann Simulations

Fractures are conduits for fluid flow in low-permeability geological formations. Multiphase flow properties of fractures are important in natural processes and in engineering applications such as the evaluation of the sealing capacity of caprocks and productivity of hydrocarbon-bearing tight rocks. Investigations of flow and transport through fractures typically focus on the effects of fracture geometric and mechanical factors such as aperture, roughness, and compressibility. The wettability of the fracture surfaces and its influence on microscale interfacial phenomena and macroscale effective transport properties are seldom studied. In this study, we investigated the effect of heterogeneous wetting properties on the displacement of water by supercritical CO2 through a series of lattice Boltzmann method simulations. The results show the evolution of the CO2 plume within a fracture is controlled by both the roughness of the aperture field and the wetting distribution. We combined these factors into a capillary pressure map that can be related to the macroscopic flow behavior of the fracture. We observed that heterogeneous wetting distributions promote the residual trapping of water where lower capillary pressures allowed for isolated water pockets in higher capillary pressure zones. Analysis of fracture unsteady relative permeability shows the effect of wetting on permeability evolution and provides support for the viscous-coupling relative permeability model. Finally, analysis of the steady-state relative permeability and saturation demonstrates a strong correlation between permeability and the standard deviation of the capillary pressure field. Thus, characterizing the distribution of wetting properties of fractures is crucial to understanding multiphase fracture flow and transport properties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

3-D Geological Modeling for Numerical Flow Simulation Studies of Gas Hydrate Reservoirs at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 Pad in the Prudhoe Bay Unit on the Alaska North Slope

Accurate reservoir evaluation requires reliable three-dimensional (3-D) geological models. Here, this study conducted 3-D geological modeling for numerical flow simulation of the B1 sand gas hydrate reservoir at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 pad, Prudhoe Bay Unit, Alaska North Slope. The model integrates well logs, core, and seismic data to address spatial heterogeneity in geological structures and reservoir properties. Two modeling types were performed: structural framework modeling and petrophysical property modeling. For structural framework modeling, seismic data and well log markers were used to reproduce subsurface structures characterized by a normal fault system. A volume-based modeling algorithm and stair-stepping grid were applied. The resulting 3-D model comprised 2,640,000 grid cells across 264 layers, including seven fault grids. For petrophysical property modeling, total porosity was initially modeled using sequential Gaussian simulation with collocated cokriging. To reproduce the upward coarsening of the B1 sand, upscaled log-derived total porosity and a three-dimensional (3-D) trend depicting total porosity variation were used as primary and secondary data, respectively. Gas hydrate saturation distribution was modeled similarly, with secondary data from estimated porosity distribution and seismic-derived acoustic impedance map enhancing accuracy. Results indicate higher gas hydrate saturation in the upper part of the B1 sand and areas with higher acoustic impedance. Intrinsic permeability was modeled from the total porosity and clay-bound water volume, and effective permeability was derived from the gas hydrate saturation and intrinsic permeability distributions based on the “Tokyo model”. Effective permeability distributions were influenced by the total porosity, gas hydrate saturation, and intrinsic permeability. Within the same layer, higher gas hydrate saturation leads to decreased effective permeability. In total, 100 sets of multiple scenarios were prepared, providing input data for dynamic flow simulations to evaluate the effects of lateral heterogeneity in reservoir properties and the hydraulic characteristics of faults on production behavior for preassessment before the long-term production test.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

From subsidies to stressors: Positively skewed ecological gradients alter biological responses to nutrients in streams

Abstract Subsidy–stress gradients offer a useful framework for understanding ecological responses to perturbation and may help inform ecological metrics in highly modified systems. Historic, region‐wide shifts from bottomland hardwood forest to row crop agriculture can cause positively skewed impact gradients in alluvial plain ecoregions, resulting in tolerant organisms that typically exhibit a subsidy response (increased abundance in response to environmental stressors) shifting to a stress response (declining abundance at higher concentrations). As a result, observed biological tolerance in modified ecosystems may differ from less modified regions, creating significant challenges for detecting biological responses to restoration efforts. Using the agriculturally dominated Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) ecoregion in Mississippi, USA, as a case study, we tested the hypothesis that macroinvertebrate taxa that typically display a subsidy response to nutrient enrichment in less modified ecoregions (i.e., nutrient‐tolerance) shift to a stress response to increasing nutrients in highly modified watersheds with elevated baseline nutrient conditions (i.e., nutrient intolerance). The abundance and diversity of MAP‐specific intolerant taxa identified with threshold indicator taxa analysis were either unresponsive or exhibited a subsidy response to increasing nutrients in less modified ecoregions in Mississippi with less land alteration and lower nutrient concentrations, but declined at higher concentrations, providing evidence for a stress response to elevated nutrients in the MAP. Additionally, MAP‐specific tolerant and intolerant taxa richness responded to increased nutrients predictably and consistently across space and time within the MAP. However, in MAP streams, elevated specific conductance was predicted to dampen the response of tolerant and intolerant taxa richness to increasing nutrient concentrations, highlighting the importance of considering multistressor interactions when interpreting biological data. Lastly, we demonstrate the efficacy of this approach with sediment bacterial communities characterized with amplicon sequencing, which lack sufficient life history characteristics necessary for the development of multimetric indices. Both macroinvertebrate and bacterial communities responded similarly to increasing nutrient concentrations, suggesting DNA‐based approaches may provide an efficient biological assessment tool for monitoring water quality improvements in highly modified watersheds.

DeVilbiss, Stephen E. [U.S. Geological Survey Lowe↗

Global ocean dimethyl sulfide climatology estimated from observations and an artificial neural network

Marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is important to climate due to the ability of DMS to alter Earth's radiation budget. Knowledge of the global-scale distribution, seasonal variability, and sea-to-air flux of DMS is needed in order to improve understanding of atmospheric sulfur, aerosol/cloud dynamics, and albedo. Here we examine the use of an artificial neural network (ANN) to extrapolate available DMS measurements to the global ocean and produce a global climatology with monthly temporal resolution. A global database of 82 996 ship-based DMS measurements in surface waters was used along with a suite of environmental parameters consisting of latitude–longitude coordinates, time of day, time of year, solar radiation, mixed layer depth, sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate, phosphate, and silicate. Linear regressions of DMS against the environmental parameters show that on a global-scale mixed layer depth and solar radiation are the strongest predictors of DMS. These parameters capture ~9 % and ~7 % of the raw DMS data variance, respectively. Multilinear regression can capture more of the raw data variance (~39 %) but strongly underestimates DMS in high-concentration regions. In contrast, the artificial neural network captures ~66 % of the raw data variance in our database. Like prior climatologies our results show a strong seasonal cycle in surface ocean DMS with the highest concentrations and sea-to-air fluxes in the high-latitude summertime oceans. We estimate a lower global sea-to-air DMS flux (20.12±0.43 Tg S yr –1 ) than the prior estimate based on a map interpolation method when the same gas transfer velocity parameterization is used. Our sensitivity test results show that DMS concentration does not change unidirectionally with each of the environmental parameters, which emphasizes the interactions among these parameters. The ANN model suggests that the flux of DMS from the ocean to the atmosphere will increase with global warming. Given that larger DMS fluxes induce greater cloud albedo, this corresponds to a negative climate feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗