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At least 217 records · Page 12

PolarMERRA: A collaborative effort for NASA’s polar reanalysis

The polar atmosphere is often poorly represented in global models, adversely impacting analyses in these regions and forecasts on much larger scales. PolarMERRA is an initiative that brings together the modeling expertise from NASA’s global modeling and assimilation office (GMAO) and observational expertise from NASA’s Cryospheric sciences lab to assess and improve the representation of polar processes in the NASA’s modelling system in preparation for upcoming and next generation reanalyses. Model improvements in resolution, physics, and data assimilation have been guided by assessment of model skill in the polar regions. Preliminary results from a novel validation framework indicate a reduction in near surface air temperature, turbulent fluxes, and precipitation biases.

Chelsea Parker↗

Observing System Simulation Experiments Investigating Atmospheric Motion Vectors and Radiances from a Constellation of 4–5-μm Infrared Sounders

A set of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) was performed to investigate the utility of a constellation of passive infrared spectrometers, strategically designed with the aim of deriving the three-dimensional retrievals of the horizontal wind via atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) from instruments with the spectral resolution of an infrared sounder. The instrument and constellation designs were performed in the context of the Midwave Infrared Sounding of Temperature and humidity in a Constellation for Winds (MISTiC Winds). The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office OSSE system, which includes a full suite of operational meteorological observations, served as the control. To illustrate the potential impact of this observing strategy, two experiments were performed by adding the new simulated observations to the control. First, perfect (error free) simulated AMVs and radiances were assimilated. Second, the data were made imperfect by adding realistic modeled errors to the AMVs and radiances that were assimilated. The experimentation showed beneficial impacts on both the mass and wind fields, as based on analysis verification, forecast verification, and the assessment of the observations using the forecast sensitivity to observation impact (FSOI) metric. In all variables and metrics, the impacts of the imperfect observations were smaller than those of the perfect observations, although much of the positive benefit was retained. The FSOI metric illustrated two key points. First, the largest impacts were seen in the middle troposphere AMVs, which is a targeted capability of the constellation strategy. Second, the addition of modeled errors showed that the assimilation system was unable to fully exploit the 4.3-μm carbon dioxide absorption radiances.

Will McCarty↗

Investigating the Utility of Hyperspectral Sounders in the 9.6 μm Band to Improve Ozone Analyses

Hyperspectral sounder brightness temperatures assimilated in the Global Earth Observing System Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (GEOS-ADAS) were previously limited to assimilating temperature and moisture. The ozone-sensitive 9.6 𝜇 m region is sensed by several hyperspectral sounders including AIRS (Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder), IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer), and CrIS (Cross-track Infrared Sounder). Direct assimilation of brightness temperatures in the 9.6 𝜇 m region have been operational at ECMWF for several years. With this study, similar improvements using the GEOS-ADAS are presented. Channels were selected from available operational subsets evaluating information content and minimizing inter-channel correlation. Additionally, information such as channel selections made by other studies, and vertical sensitivities of ozone and temperature were considered. The analyses produced show improvements verified against ozonesondes taken from SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes) and WOUDC (World Ozone and Ultraviolet Data Center). This work will be added to the GEOS-ADAS and will provide an improved source of ozone data in NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office products.

Ozone↗

What (and How) MERRA-2 Reanalysis Data are Used in Applied Sciences

The Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) is the global atmospheric data reanalysis for the satellite era produced by NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS)version 5.12.4. The data are officially distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). MERRA-2 data have been widely used by the Earth sciences and application community. Since MERRA-2 data were released in early 2016, the number of registered data users has grown steadily from 1,252 in 2016 to 6477 in 2020. By the end of October 2021, ~16 petabytes (over 360 million files) of data have been distributed to more than 18,900 users. Searching in Google Scholar (https://scholar.google.com/), we have found over 7,000 articles, published between January 2017 and May 2021, involving the use ofMERRA-2 data. The figure shows the numbers for various application areas in which theMERRA-2 data have been used, covering almost all of the application areas defined in NASA Applied Sciences (http://appliedsciences.nasa.gov). The largest number of articles are found in disaster research, with the subcategories ordered in flood, wildfires, hurricanes and cyclones, and other forms of severe weather. In this presentation, we will discuss the preliminary findings from a review of the selected literature that uses MERRA-2 data in applied sciences. The current analytic and interoperable data services at GES DISC are listed, such as the on-the-fly subset and analysis service, NASA Giovanni; THREDDS Data Server(TDS); and Python Jupyter notebooks. In addition, we will introduce two new services for supporting the open sciences: My Dashboard and Related Publications.

data management↗

Investigating seasonal ENSO forecast amplitude calibration for GEOS-S2S-2

The GEOS-S2S-2 is a global coupled model and assimilation system, encompassing many aspects of the Earth climate system. This project looked at seasonal (nine-month) ensemble forecasts, over the period from 1982 through the present. We explored and validated a forecast amplitude correction technique used by the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), of which GEOS is a member, for Niño3.4 sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly predictions. The method relies on deriving a set of correction factors based on the standard deviations of hindcast and observed SST anomalies. This algorithm was implemented at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) and applied to the GEOS-S2S-2 Niño 3.4 hindcasts. In general, the correction reduced the forecast amplitude. This improved the quality of the forecasts when measured by the root mean square error (RMSE) of the ensemble mean forecast. RMSE decreased for most initialization months and forecast leads. The correction had a larger impact on seasons with strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events than neutral seasons. The effects of the correction on the ensemble characteristics were also examined, and a variation of the algorithm was proposed that preserves the ensemble spread. The outcome of this project is a tool that can be used to calibrate GEOS-S2S-2 ENSO forecasts and potentially improve the precision of multi-model El Niño outlooks.

ENSO↗

Comparison of Observed Longwave, Shortwave Irradiance and Surface Temperature from “MOSAiC” to CERES Radiative Transfer Calculations and Inputs

As atmospheric temperatures rise due to increased anthropogenic forcing, the effect is expected to be larger over the arctic than midlatitude and tropics, known as polar amplification. A multi-national program, the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) was ran between Sept 2019 and Oct 2020. The project deployed scientific instruments on board the German research vessel Polarstern with the ship remaining across a year to observe all aspects of polar climate. The US DOE deployed the ARM AMF2 aboard the ship along with several off-ship sites for extended spatial observations. Of particular importance was the measurement of the energetics of the ice/ocean/atmosphere interactions through observations of surface irradiance and surface temperatures. NASA’s Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project produces the SYN1deg Edition 4 data product. This product provides high quality, hourly, globally gridded and temporally complete maps of top of atmosphere (TOA), in atmosphere, and surface irradiances. TOA fluxes are derived from CERES instruments and geostationary satellites. In addition, TOA, in atmosphere, and surface irradiances are computed using the Langley Fu and Liou radiative transfer model. The radiative transfer model is run hourly at 1 degree ~equal area spatial resolution. Meteorological profiles are provided by Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s GEOS-541 reanalysis product. Cloud properties are derived solely from Terra and Aqua MODIS imagers northward of 60°. Here we compare SYN1deg hourly calculations of surface irradiance to observations from the AMF2 to validate the products estimates of surface irradiance in this challenging area. Along with the irradiance comparisons we take a close look at the surface temperature record in the GEOS-541 product and compare it over both time and space to several surface observations provided by MOSAiC. Along with the comparison to the re-analysis record we will compare these observed surface temperatures to those derived from the AIRS product, which is known to have some difficulty in extreme high latitude areas. The goals of this study are 1) understand computed surface downward irradiance and temperature error separated by surface type (e.g. sea ice or open water) and by season, and 2) error covariance in spatial and temporal space. We seek to use this information to extrapolate the error from the MOSAiC domain to a larger arctic region.

David A Rutan↗

The GMAO Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) Framework

We present the current status of the OSSE system at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA/GMAO). Some of the OSSE techniques developed at GMAO including simulation of realistic observations, e.g., adding errors to simulated observations, are now widely used by the community to evaluate the impact of new observations on the weather forecasts. This talk presents some of the recent progresses and challenges in simulating realistic observations, radiative transfer modeling support for the GMAO OSSE activities, assimilation of OSSE observations into data assimilation systems, and evaluating the impact of simulated observations on the forecast skills.

Isaac Moradi↗

The Generation of Mixing Across the Stratospheric Polarvortex Edge By Breaking Gravity Waves

Modern high resolution global atmospheric analyses are capable of resolving larger gravity waves, including their generation, propagation, and breaking. Orographically generated gravity waves that break in the middle stratosphere often appear as disturbances in maps of potential vorticity, a key stratospheric dynamical quantity. Using analyses from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, we show how gravity waves not only disturb the local flow above them but can generate flow instabilities leading to eddies that propagate around the stratospheric polar vortex, creating significant mixing across the vortex edge and into the polar region. These disturbances and mixing events are especially noticeable during NH winter months with low planetary scale wave activity such as in January 2022. During January 2022, the initially circular flow around the polar vortex was disrupted by breaking gravity waves, leading to unstable flow that created a chain of eddies around the vortex edge. The mixing associated with this process led to increased ozone in the upper stratosphere polar region.

Polar Vortex↗

Implementing JEDI into NASA GMAO’s Real Time Production Suite

NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has prepared their first production system involving the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI) framework. In this system the central analysis, that drives the deterministic forecast, will be provided using JEDI. This talk outlines the phased approach to implementing JEDI into production that GMAO has designed, and how this approach will allow for a careful analysis of the system against the existing data assimilation framework (GSI). In the first phase of implementation the existing data assimilation system will perform certain actions that are still under development in JEDI. These include thinning the observations and producing satellite bias correction coefficients. JEDI is hooked up to the existing workflow so a single line switch can activate whether the existing or JEDI-based analysis is cycled. Outside of the monumental effort to construct JEDI that is ongoing at the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA), GMAO have undertaken two areas of considerable effort. The talk will describe these efforts and highlight the main challenges that have been encountered. The first area of work is to implement the background error model from the existing data assimilation system into JEDI. The second is to validate the observing system in JEDI against the one in GSI, which has involved several new features being added to the observation operators in JEDI. While the longer-term plans involve trying to improve on the GSI in these two areas, GMAO is keen to have JEDI start from a trusted baseline. This is also key to implementing JEDI quickly so other priorities, such as increasing the number of model levels, can be easily worked on in parallel. GMAO is actively working on a framework to shepherd in the next generation coupled data assimilation system and model. As JEDI is implemented for the first time the plan is to ambitiously cycle through implementations, frequently bringing JEDI features to production. Details of these plans will be given in the talk and we will highlight key implementation and product milestones that we hope to achieve, as well as touch on the development environment that we will use to support frequent refreshing of the production system.

JEDI↗

Status and Progress of Observation Usages in the GMAO GEOS Atmospheric Data Assimilation System

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) continuously works to enhance the use of observations in the Goddard Earth Observing System – Forward Processing (GEOS-FP) model and analysis system. Updates to GEOS-FP in March 2022 and February 2023 focused on the analysis component, adding new capabilities to ingest radiances and other new observing systems, such as SPIRE GNSS-RO data. Concurrent activities enhance aspects of the radiance assimilation, such as the use of hyperspectral radiances in the stratosphere and lower troposphere, the introduction of microwave radiances over land, and a revised treatment of GMI observations. Furthermore, GMAO has been contributing to the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI), including development and testing of various components of the observing system and GEOS-specific background error covariances that will allow migration of GEOS-FP from a GSI- to a JEDI-based analysis system. A number of examples are shown.

Y Zhu↗

The Transition of Satellite Observations Assimilated in GEOS to JEDI

In order to incorporate the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI) in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), which is used for weather, climate, and air quality forecasts and producing reanalysis datasets, it is necessary to validate the observing system in JEDI. NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), with the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA), is developing the Unified Forward Operator (UFO) and adding all the necessary features to replicate existing capability. Various satellite and conventional observations are assimilated by the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)–based GEOS atmospheric data assimilations system. GMAO has been adding, validating, and updating procedures including the GEOS all-sky microwave radiance assimilation framework to assimilate those observation in UFO. Robust tests are conducted to ensure correct configurations of observational data bias correction (BC), quality control (QC), and observation error in UFO and good agreements between UFO and GSI results. Our work on satellite observations is reported in this presentation.

Jianjun Jin↗

The NASA Merra-2 Reanalysis Products: Data and Tools Used for Aerosol and Air Quality Studies

The NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) is atmospheric reanalysis data spanning 1980 to present. It has been produced by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) and is distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). MERRA-2 data includes 100 collections of Earth system variables, mainly from the atmospheric model, such as aerosol fields and meteorological fields, radiation fields, and aerosol fields, guided by the assimilation of as many as six million observations every six hours. MERRA-2 has been one of the most popular datasets from NASA and is widely used in interdisciplinary research and applications, with increasing numbers of new users. For example, at least 7000 users accessed MERRA-2 data at GES DISC in the year 2021, ~1000 more users than in the year 2020. In this presentation, we will introduce the MERRA-2 datasets associated with aerosol and air quality studies and use a wildfire case study to demonstrate the data tools developed at GES DISC to analyze and visualize MERRA-2 data, such as Giovanni and the level 3 and level 4 subsetter, and Jupyter Python notebook. We will also update the status of cloud migration of the MERRA-2 data to Amazon Web Services (AWS).

Xiaohua Pan↗

Data Assimilation and Reanalysis

This presentation introduces the Data Assimilation and Reanalysis principle, then details the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2). The MERRA-2 is atmospheric reanalysis data spanning 1980 to the present. It has been produced by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) and is distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). In this presentation, I will introduce the MERRA-2 datasets associated with aerosol and air quality studies and use case studies to demonstrate the data tools developed at GES DISC to analyze and visualize MERRA-2 data, such as Giovanni and Jupyter Python notebook.

Xiaohua Pan↗

The Gmao Hybrid 4d-Envar Observing System Simulation Experiment Framework.

This work describes the extension of the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework to use a hybrid 4D-EnVar scheme instead of 3D-Var. The original 3D-Var and hybrid 4D-EnVar OSSEs use the same version of the data assimilation system (DAS) so that a direct comparison is possible in terms of the validation with respect to their corresponding real cases. Rather than quantifying the differences between the two data assimilation methodologies, a short inter-comparison of upgrading from a 3D- to a 4D-OSSE is provided to highlight aspects where this change matters to the OSSE community and to identify features of data assimilation that can only be explored in a four-dimensional OSSE framework. A short validation of the hybrid 4D-EnVar OSSE shows that conclusions from previous assessments of the 3D-Var OSSE in its ability to mimic the behavior of the real system still hold with the same caveats. Furthermore, some aspects of the ensemble configuration and behavior are discussed along with forecast sensitivity to observation impacts (FSOI). Estimates of error standard deviations are shown to be smaller in the hybrid 4D-EnVar OSSE but with little impact on the character of the error. A discussion on future work directions focuses on exploring the four-dimensional aspect such as the error distribution within the assimilation window or four-dimensional handling of high-temporal density observations.

Data assimilation↗

Inferred Sea Level Prediction in the NASA GMAO Seasonal Forecasting System

Reliable predictions of sea level anomalies on seasonal timescales with lead times of 1 to 9 months may have relevance to stakeholders – for example, in the advance deployment of resources for coastal flood mitigation. Routine prediction and analysis may also highlight physical processes associated with sea level change and modeling capabilities on seasonal and other timescales. These forecasts may represent interannual changes in the seasonal slope of the ocean surface, teleconnection effects such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and variations in seasonal hydrology including precipitation and coastal runoff. Coupled atmosphere/ocean models are routinely used in the seasonal prediction of temperature anomalies, precipitation anomalies, sea ice cover, and climate indices such as the Niño3.4 predictions under the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) protocol. Within the limits of their configuration, these complex Earth-system models have a potential for depicting regional changes in oceanic column properties, including the sea surface height. Seasonal prediction models generally have no representation of long-term mass contributions from melting land ice, or changes in vertical land motion; their output may be more specifically characterized as predictions of the ocean dynamic sea level. In practice however, the sea surface height prognostic variable is substantially compromised by the forecast model response to initial conditions. Imbalances between the initial, observed hydrologic cycle and the forecast model state produce abrupt adjustments in the model sea surface height. As a result, most seasonal prediction systems employ a constraint on the globally-averaged sea surface height that is applied at each time step. This essentially renders the prognostic sea surface height variable as unserviceable. Several approaches have previously been used to retrieve sea level information from seasonal forecasts beyond the use of the sea surface height variable. Here, we extend a method of relating other prognostic values, including ocean circulation and climate indices, to observed sea level variations. We use the merged altimetry record of the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies data set and monthly revised local reference gauge observations from the National Oceanography Centre Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) to evaluate derived prognostic variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office subseasonal-to-seasonal system version 2.1 (GMAO S2S v2.1). We focus on results for the midlatitudes with particular emphasis on US gauge locations. As shown in previous studies, prognostic ENSO-related indices in boreal winter are well correlated with gauge observations for the US west coast, but also for other locations in the southeastern US. Other forecast climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation have relations to sea level that are limited both seasonally and spatially. As expected, surface atmospheric pressure (e.g., inverse barometer effect) is found to be particularly well correlated with observed sea level. We provide a characterization of forecast skill for seasonal sea level with this method.

Richard I Cullather↗

Regional Impacts of Ice Sheet Surface Representation Improvements in an Earth System Model

Ice sheet surface conditions and their subsequent impact on surface mass balance play an important role in ice sheet dynamics and ice sheet interaction with the overlying atmosphere and surrounding ocean. The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ecosystem of models and reanalyses model ice sheet and glacier surface mass balance with a moderately complex snow and ice module, including prognostic surface albedo evolution, fractional snow cover, and snowpack hydrology and meltwater retention. With this configuration, Greenland near surface air temperatures and ice sheet melt are well represented in MERRA-2, GMAO’s current atmospheric reanalysis; however, the similarity to observations in some regions is due, in part, to compensating biases in surface energy budget. Recent improvements to GEOS’ cloud microphysics and longwave radiation parameterizations reduced biases in surface net longwave radiation and exacerbated surface net shortwave radiation biases, effectively increasing near surface temperatures and melting, particularly during the summer months. Here, we demonstrate the Earth system response to an improved representation of the ice sheet surface focused on minimizing the surface energy biases and increasing spatial and temporal representativeness. New changes to the surface albedo parameterization, including the introduction of a prognostic aerosol darkening scheme, help mitigate shortwave biases, while modifications to surface roughness characteristics improve near surface sensible heat fluxes. Focusing on the Arctic and Greenland, we examine the combined impact on these changes on regional weather conditions and ice sheet surface mass balance using a high resolution atmospheric only experiment, and we use a coupled model configuration to assess the impact on oceanic conditions and subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Overall, these improvements increase modeled ice sheet surface realism and provide a strong basis for more accurate ice sheet mass balance in GMAO’s future reanalyses and forecasting systems.

Lauren C Andrews↗

Boundary Layer Data Assimilation and Interaction with Parameterizations in the NASA GEOS Model

The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office develops the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), which assimilates a wide range of observations to support medium range and seasonal forecasts and production of reanalyses like MERRA-2. In this talk we report on recent efforts to assimilate boundary layer (PBL) height observations derived from radiosondes, GNSS radio occultation, space-based lidar (CALIPSO, CATS, IceSat-2) and ground-based lidar (MPLNET). A novel component of this project includes examining the influence of model parameterizations on PBL profile estimates. We will discuss physics-based parameterizations of the PBL and how they may benefit or distort representation of PBL profiles in data assimilation. In particular, we consider the tendency of PBL parameterizations to compensate for analysis updates of state variables, effectively reducing the information retained from observations. We will present efforts to reduce this compensation in GEOS by using the PBL height analysis to adjust length scales used in the model PBL parameterizations.

Nathan Arnold↗