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At least 217 records · Page 12

Introduction to MODIS Cloud Products

The Earth's radiative energy balance and hydrological cycle are fundamentally coupled with the distribution and properties of clouds. Therefore, the ability to remotely infer cloud properties and their variation in space and time is crucial for establishing climatologies as a reference for validation of present-day climate models and in assessing future climate change. Remote cloud observations also provide data sets useful for testing and improving cloud model physics, and for assimilation into numerical weather prediction models. The MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagers on the Terra and Aqua Earth Observing System (EOS) platforms provide the capability for globally retrieving these properties using passive solar reflectance and infrared techniques. In addition to providing measurements similar to those offered on a suite of historical operational weather platforms such as the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), the High-resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS), and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), MODIS provides additional spectral and/or spatial resolution in key atmospheric bands, along with on-board calibration, to expand the capability for global cloud property retrievals. The core MODIS operational cloud products include cloud top pressure, thermodynamic phase, optical thickness, particle size, and water path, and are derived globally at spatial resolutions of either 1- or 5-km (referred to as Level-2 or pixel-level products). In addition, the MODIS atmosphere team (collectively providing cloud, aerosol, and clear sky products) produces a combined gridded product (referred to as Level-3) aggregated to a 1 equal-angle grid, available for daily, eight-day, and monthly time periods. The wealth of information available from these products provides critical information for climate studies as well as the continuation and improved understanding of existing satellite-based cloud climatologies derived from heritage instruments. This chapter provides an overview of the MODIS Level-2 and -3 operational cloud products.

Baum, Bryan A.↗

Hyperresolution Global Land Surface Modeling: Meeting a Grand Challenge for Monitoring Earth's Terrestrial Water

Monitoring Earth's terrestrial water conditions is critically important to many hydrological applications such as global food production; assessing water resources sustainability; and flood, drought, and climate change prediction. These needs have motivated the development of pilot monitoring and prediction systems for terrestrial hydrologic and vegetative states, but to date only at the rather coarse spatial resolutions (approx.10-100 km) over continental to global domains. Adequately addressing critical water cycle science questions and applications requires systems that are implemented globally at much higher resolutions, on the order of 1 km, resolutions referred to as hyperresolution in the context of global land surface models. This opinion paper sets forth the needs and benefits for a system that would monitor and predict the Earth's terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. We discuss six major challenges in developing a system: improved representation of surface-subsurface interactions due to fine-scale topography and vegetation; improved representation of land-atmospheric interactions and resulting spatial information on soil moisture and evapotranspiration; inclusion of water quality as part of the biogeochemical cycle; representation of human impacts from water management; utilizing massively parallel computer systems and recent computational advances in solving hyperresolution models that will have up to 10(exp 9) unknowns; and developing the required in situ and remote sensing global data sets. We deem the development of a global hyperresolution model for monitoring the terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles a grand challenge to the community, and we call upon the international hydrologic community and the hydrological science support infrastructure to endorse the effort.

Wood, Eric F.↗

Background stratospheric aerosol reference model

Nearly global SAGE I satellite observations in the nonvolcanic period from March 1979 to February 1980 are used to produce a reference background stratospheric aerosol optical model. Zonally average profiles of the 1.0-micron aerosol extinction for the tropics, midlatitudes, and high latitudes for both hemispheres are given in graphical and tabulated form for the different seasons. A third order polynomial fit to the vertical profile data set is used to derive analytic expressions for the seasonal global means and the yearly global mean. The results have application to the simulation of atmospheric radiative transfer and radiance calculations in atmospheric remote sensing.

Mccormick, M. P.↗

Impact mechanics of the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction bolide

An examination of the mechanics of asteroidal, cometary, and meteor swarm impact on the earth determined if the enrichment of projectile material in the K-T layer is consistent with melts and impact breccias on the earth and moon, the size of the impacters, the distribution of the kinetic energy, and the sequence of impacts that could give rise to observed extinction phenomena. Flows resulting from spherical projectile impacts onto layers of air, water, and silicates were modeled and Eulerian finite difference algorithms were employed to solve conservation equations and equations of state. A range of speeds and impacter densities were considered, along with sizes from 0.17 km, which would be consumed in the atmosphere, to a 10 km object, which would have had a diameter greater than a reference 7.1 km atmosphere depth. It is concluded that an impact of the K-T bolide could result in global biotic extinction and worldwide material deposition.

Okeefe, J. D.↗

A Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis of Ozone Trend Predictions in a Two Dimensional Model

We use Monte Carlo analysis to estimate the uncertainty in predictions of total O3 trends between 1979 and 1995 made by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) two-dimensional (2D) model of stratospheric photochemistry and dynamics. The uncertainty is caused by gas-phase chemical reaction rates, photolysis coefficients, and heterogeneous reaction parameters which are model inputs. The uncertainty represents a lower bound to the total model uncertainty assuming the input parameter uncertainties are characterized correctly. Each of the Monte Carlo runs was initialized in 1970 and integrated for 26 model years through the end of 1995. This was repeated 419 times using input parameter sets generated by Latin Hypercube Sampling. The standard deviation (a) of the Monte Carlo ensemble of total 03 trend predictions is used to quantify the model uncertainty. The 34% difference between the model trend in globally and annually averaged total O3 using nominal inputs and atmospheric trends calculated from Nimbus 7 and Meteor 3 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) version 7 data is less than the 46% calculated 1 (sigma), model uncertainty, so there is no significant difference between the modeled and observed trends. In the northern hemisphere midlatitude spring the modeled and observed total 03 trends differ by more than 1(sigma) but less than 2(sigma), which we refer to as marginal significance. We perform a multiple linear regression analysis of the runs which suggests that only a few of the model reactions contribute significantly to the variance in the model predictions. The lack of significance in these comparisons suggests that they are of questionable use as guides for continuing model development. Large model/measurement differences which are many multiples of the input parameter uncertainty are seen in the meridional gradients of the trend and the peak-to-peak variations in the trends over an annual cycle. These discrepancies unambiguously indicate model formulation problems and provide a measure of model performance which can be used in attempts to improve such models.

Considine, D. B.↗

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Studies (CIMS)

Prediction of climate relies on models, and better model prediction depends on good model physics. Improving model physics requires the maximal utilization of climate data of the past, present and future. CEOP provides the first example of a comprehensive, integrated global and regional data set, consisting of globally gridded data, reference site in-situ observations, model location time series (MOLTS), and integrated satellite data for a two-year period covering two complete annual cycles of 2003-2004. The monsoon regions are the most important socio-economically in terms of devastation by floods and droughts, and potential impacts from climate change md fluctuatinns nf the hydrologic cyc!e. Scientifically, it is most challenging, because of complex interactions of atmosphere, land and oceans, local vs. remote forcings in contributing to climate variability and change in the region. Given that many common features, and physical teleconnection exist among different monsoon regions, an international research focus on monsoon must be coordinated and sustained. Current models of the monsoon are grossly inadequate for regional predictions. For improvement, models must be confronted with relevant observations, and model physic developers must be made to be aware of the wealth of information from existing climate data, field measurements, and satellite data that can be used to improve models. Model transferability studles must be conducted. CIMS is a major initiative under CEOP to engage the modeling and the observational communities to join in a coordinated effort to study the monsoons. The objectives of CIMS are (a) To provide a better understanding of fundamental physical processes (diurnal cycle, annual cycle, and intraseasonal oscillations) in monsoon regions around the world and (b) To demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. In this talk, I will present the basic concepts of CIMS and the key scientific problems facing monsoon climates and provide examples of common monsoon features, and possible monsoon induced teleconnections linking different parts of the world.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Proposed reference models for nitrous oxide and methane in the middle atmosphere

Data from the Stratospheric and Mesospheric Sounder (SAMS) on the Nimbus 7 satellite, for the period from Jan. 1979 - Dec. 1981, are used to prepare a reference model for the long-lived trace gases, methane and nitrous oxide, in the stratosphere. The model is presented in tabular form on seventeen pressure surfaces from 20 to 0.1 mb, in 10 degree latitude bins from 50S to 70N, and for each month of the year. The means by which the data quality and interannual variability, and some of the more interesting globally and seasonally variable features of the data are discussed briefly.

Taylor, F. W.↗

Sensitivity of Seawater Oxygen Isotopes to Climatic and Tectonic Boundary Conditions in an Early Paleogene Simulation with GISS ModelE-R

An isotope-enabled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GISS ModelE -R) is used to estimate the spatial gradients of the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (delta O-18(sub sw), where delta is the deviation from a known reference material in per mil) during the early Paleogene (45.65 Ma). Understanding the response of delta O-18(sub sw) to changes in climatic and tectonic boundary conditions is important because records of carbonate delta O-18 document changes in hydrology, as well as changes in temperature and global ice -volume. We present results from an early Paleogene configuration of ModelE -R which indicate that spatial gradients of surface ocean delta O-18(sub sw) during this period could have been significantly different to those in the modern ocean. The differences inferred from ModelE -R are sufficient to change early Paleogene sea surface temperature estimates derived from primary carbonate delta O-18 signatures by more than +/-2 C in large areas of the ocean. In the North Atlantic, Indian, and Southern Oceans, the differences in d18Osw inferred from our simulation with ModelE -R are in direct contrast with those from another d18O ]tracing model study which used different, but equally plausible, early Paleogene boundary conditions. The large differences in delta O-18(sub sw) between preindustrial and early Paleogene simulations, and between models, emphasizes the sensitivity of d18Osw to climatic and tectonic boundary conditions. For this reason, absolute estimates of Eocene/ Paleocene temperature derived from carbonate delta O-18 alone are likely to have larger uncertainties than are usually assumed.

Roberts, Christopher D.↗

A Multi-Scale Sampling Strategy for Detecting Physiologically Significant Signals in AVIRIS Imagery

Models of photosynthetic production at ecosystem and global scales require multiple input parameters specifying physical and physiological surface features. While certain physical parameters (e.g., absorbed photosynthetically active radiation) can be derived from current satellite sensors, other physiologically relevant measures (e.g., vegetation type, water status, carboxylation capacity, or photosynthetic light-use efficiency), are not generally directly available from current satellite sensors at the appropriate geographic scale. Consequently, many model parameters must be assumed or derived from independent sources, often at an inappropriate scale. An abundance of ecophysiological studies at the leaf and canopy scales suggests strong physiological control of vegetation-atmosphere CO2 and water vapor fluxes, particularly in evergreen vegetation subjected to diurnal or seasonal stresses. For example hot, dry conditions can lead to stomatal closure, and associated "downregulation" of photosynthetic biochemical processes, a phenomenon often manifested as a "midday photosynthetic depression". A recent study with the revised simple biosphere (SiB2) model demonstrated that photosynthetic downregulation can significantly impact global climate. However, at the global scale, the exact significance of downregulation remains unclear, largely because appropriate physiological measures are generally unavailable at this scale. Clearly, there is a need to develop reliable ways of extracting physiologically relevant information from remote sensing. Narrow-band spectrometers offer many opportunities for deriving physiological parameters needed for ecosystem and global scale photosynthetic models. Experimental studies on the ground at the leaf- to stand-scale have indicated that several narrow-band features can be used to detect plant physiological status. One physiological signal is caused by xanthophyll cycle pigment activity, and is often expressed as the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI). Because the xanthophyll cycle pigments are photoregulatory pigments closely linked to photosynthetic function, this index can be used to derive relative photosynthetic rates. An additional signal with physiological significance is the 970 nm water absorption band, which provides a measure of liquid water content. This feature has been quantified both using a simple 2-band ratio (900/970 nm, here referred to as the "Water Band Index" or WBI;), and using the "continuum removal" method. Current atmospheric correction methods for AVIRIS imagery also obtain quantitative expressions of surface liquid water absorption based on the 970 nm water band and may be comparable to ground-based estimates of water content using this feature. However, physiological interpretations of both the PRI and the WBI are best understood at the leaf and canopy scales, where complications of atmospheric interference and complex stand and landscape features can be minimized, and where experimental manipulations can be readily applied. Currently it is not known whether these physiological indices can be used to derive meaningful physiological information from AVIRIS imagery. In addition to the problem of atmospheric interference, another challenge is that any simple physiological index can be confounded by multiple factors unrelated to physiology, and this problem can become more severe at progressively larger spatial scales. For example, previous work has suggested that both the PRI and the WBI, are strongly correlated with other optical measures of canopy structure (e.g., the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index or green vegetation fraction), indicating a confounding effect of structure on physiological signals at the larger, landscape scale. Furthermore, the normal operating mode of most imaging spectrometers does not allow simultaneous, ground truthing at a level of detail needed for physiological sampling. Additionally, manipulative experiments of physiology are difficult to apply at a geographic scale suitable for comparison with remote imagery, which often works at spatial scales that are several orders of magnitude larger than those typically used for physiological studies. These limitations require the consideration of alternative approaches to validating physiological information derived from AVIRIS data. In this report, we present a multi-scale sampling approach to detecting physiologically significant signals in narrow-band spectra. This approach explores the multi-dimensional data space provided by narrow-band spectrometry, and combines AVIRIS imagery at a large scale, with ground spectral sampling at an intermediate scale, and detailed ecophysiological measurements at a fine scale, to examine seasonally and spatially changing relationships between multiple structural and physiological variables. Examples of this approach are provided by simultaneous sampling of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an index of fractional PAR interception and green vegetation cover, the Water Band Index (WBI, an index of liquid water absorption, and the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI, an index of xanthophyll cycle pigment activity and photosynthetic light-use efficiency. By directly linking changing optical properties sampled on the ground with measurable physiological states, we hope to develop a basis for interpreting similar signals in AVIRIS imagery.

Gamon, John A.↗

Radiative Flux and Forcing Parameterization Error in Aerosol-Free Clear Skies

This article reports on the accuracy in aerosol- and cloud-free conditions of the radiation parameterizations used in climate models. Accuracy is assessed relative to observationally validated reference models for fluxes under present-day conditions and forcing (flux changes) from quadrupled concentrations of carbon dioxide. Agreement among reference models is typically within 1 W/m2, while parameterized calculations are roughly half as accurate in the longwave and even less accurate, and more variable, in the shortwave. Absorption of shortwave radiation is underestimated by most parameterizations in the present day and has relatively large errors in forcing. Error in present-day conditions is essentially unrelated to error in forcing calculations. Recent revisions to parameterizations have reduced error in most cases. A dependence on atmospheric conditions, including integrated water vapor, means that global estimates of parameterization error relevant for the radiative forcing of climate change will require much more ambitious calculations.

Climate↗

Studies of 21st-Century Precipitation Trends Over West Africa

West Africa includes a semi-arid zone between the Sahara Desert and the humid Gulf of Guinea coast, approximately between 10 N and 20 N, which is irrigated by summer monsoon rains. This article refers to the region as the Sahel. Rain-fed agriculture is the primary sustenance for Sahel populations, and severe droughts (in the 1970s and 1980s), therefore, have devastating negative societal impacts. The future frequency of Sahel droughts and the evolution of its hydrological balance are therefore of great interest. The article reviews 10 recent research studies that attempt to discover how climate changes will affect the hydrology of the Sahel throughout the 21st century. All 10 studies rely on atmosphere ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations based on a range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Many of the simulations are contained in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change archives for Assessment Reports #3 and #4. Two of the studies use AOGCM data to drive regional climate models. Seven studies make projections for the first half of the 21st century and eight studies make projections for the second half. Some studies make projections of wetter conditions and some predict more frequent droughts, and each describes the atmospheric processes associated with its prediction. Only one study projects more frequent droughts before 2050, and that is only for continent-wide degradation in vegetation cover. The challenge to correctly simulate Sahel rainfall decadal trends is particularly daunting because multiple physical mechanisms compete to drive the trend upwards or downwards. A variety of model deficiencies, regarding the simulation of one or more of these physical processes, taints models climate change projections. Consequently, no consensus emerges regarding the impact of anticipated greenhouse gas forcing on the hydrology of the Sahel in the second half of the 21st century.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

An Intercomparison of Changes Associated with Earth's Lower Tropospheric Temperature Using Traditional and AMIP-Style Reanalyses

Reanalyses have become an integral tool for evaluating regional and global climate variations, and an important component of this is modifications to the energy budget. Reductions in Arctic Sea ice extent has induced an albedo feedback, causing the Arctic to warm more rapidly than anywhere else in the world, referred to as "Arctic Amplification." This has been demonstrated by observations and numerous reanalyses, including the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). However, the Arctic Amplification signal is non-existent in a ten member ensemble of the MERRA-2 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (M2AMIP) simulations, using the same prescribed climate forcing, including Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and ice. An evaluation of the temperature tendency within the lower troposphere due to radiation, moisture, and dynamics as well as the surface energy budget in MERRA-2 and M2AMIP will demonstrate that despite identical prescribed SSTs and sea ice in both versions, enhanced warming in the Arctic in MERRA-2 is in response to the analysis increment tendency due to temperature observations. Furthermore, the role of boundary conditions, model biases and changes in observing systems on the Arctic Amplification signal will be assessed. Literature on the topic of Arctic Amplification demonstrates that the enhanced warming begins in the mid-1990s. Anomalously warm Arctic SST in the early time period of MERRA-2 can mute the trend in Arctic lower troposphere temperature without the constraint of observations in M2AMIP. Additionally, MERRA-2 uses three distinct datasets of SST and sea ice concentration, which also plays a role.

Arcti↗

Climate Models

Climate models is a very broad topic, so a single volume can only offer a small sampling of relevant research activities. This volume of 14 chapters includes descriptions of a variety of modeling studies for a variety of geographic regions by an international roster of authors. The climate research community generally uses the rubric climate models to refer to organized sets of computer instructions that produce simulations of climate evolution. The code is based on physical relationships that describe the shared variability of meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, precipitation rate, circulation, radiation fluxes, etc. Three-dimensional climate models are integrated over time in order to compute the temporal and spatial variations of these parameters. Model domains can be global or regional and the horizontal and vertical resolutions of the computational grid vary from model to model. Considering the entire climate system requires accounting for interactions between solar insolation, atmospheric, oceanic and continental processes, the latter including land hydrology and vegetation. Model simulations may concentrate on one or more of these components, but the most sophisticated models will estimate the mutual interactions of all of these environments. Advances in computer technology have prompted investments in more complex model configurations that consider more phenomena interactions than were possible with yesterday s computers. However, not every attempt to add to the computational layers is rewarded by better model performance. Extensive research is required to test and document any advantages gained by greater sophistication in model formulation. One purpose for publishing climate model research results is to present purported advances for evaluation by the scientific community.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

Terra and Aqua MODIS Design, Radiometry, and Geometry in Support of Land Remote Sensing

The NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) mission includes the construction and launch of two nearly identical Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments. The MODIS proto-flight model (PFM) is onboard the EOS Terra satellite (formerly EOS AM-1) launched on December 18, 1999 and hereafter referred to as Terra MODIS. Flight model-1 (FM1) is onboard the EOS Aqua satellite (formerly EOS PM-1) launched on May 04, 2002 and referred to as Aqua MODIS. MODIS was developed based on the science community s desire to collect multiyear continuous datasets for monitoring changes in the Earth s land, oceans and atmosphere, and the human contributions to these changes. It was designed to measure discrete spectral bands, which includes many used by a number of heritage sensors, and thus extends the heritage datasets to better understand both long- and short-term changes in the global environment (Barnes and Salomonson 1993; Salomonson et al. 2002; Barnes et al. 2002). The MODIS development, launch, and operation were managed by NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, Maryland. The sensors were designed, built, and tested by Raytheon/ Santa Barbara Remote Sensing (SBRS), Goleta, California. Each MODIS instrument offers 36 spectral bands, which span the spectral region from the visible (0.41 m) to long-wave infrared (14.4 m). MODIS collects data at three different nadir spatial resolutions: 0.25, 0.5, and 1 km. Key design specifications, such as spectral bandwidths, typical scene radiances, required signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) or noise equivalent temperature differences (NEDT), and primary applications of each MODIS spectral band are summarized in Table 7.1. These parameters were the basis for the MODIS design. More details on the evolution of the NASA EOS and development of the MODIS instruments are provided in Chap. 1. This chapter focuses on the MODIS sensor design, radiometry, and geometry as they apply to land remote sensing. With near-daily coverage of the Earth's surface, MODIS provides comprehensive measurements that enable scientists and policy makers to better understand and effectively manage the natural resources on both regional and global scales. Terra, the first large multisensor EOS satellite, is operated in a 10:30 am (local equatorial crossing time, descending southwards) polar orbit. Aqua, the second multisensor EOS satellite is operated in a 1:30 pm (local equatorial crossing time, ascending northwards) polar orbit. With complementing morning and afternoon observations, the Terra and Aqua MODIS, together with other sensors housed on both satellites, have greatly improved our understanding of the dynamics of the global environmental system.

Xiong, Xiaoxiong↗

Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

The emissions of reactive gases and aerosols can affect climate through the burdens of ozone, methane and aerosols, having both cooling and warming effects. These species are generally referred to near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) or short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), because of their short atmospheric residence time. The mitigation of these would be attractive for both air quality and climate on a 30-year timescale, provided it is not at the expense of CO2 mitigation. In this study we examine the climate effects of the emissions of NTCFs from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon - BC) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides - NOx, volatile organic compounds VOC, and carbon monoxide - CO). For the aerosols the global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs) are simply time-dependent scaling of the equilibrium radiative forcing, with the GTPs decreasing more rapidly with time than the GWPs. While the aerosol climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region, emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other northern hemisphere regions. On regional basis, the northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions. We also found that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to black carbon emissions from South Asia.

climate forcer↗

Accurate Realization of GPS Vertical Global Reference Frame

The goal of this project is to improve our current understanding of GPS error sources associated with estimates of radial velocities at global scales. An improvement in the accuracy of radial global velocities would have a very positive impact on a large number of geophysical studies of current general interest such as global sea-level and climate change, coastal hazards, glacial isostatic adjustment, atmospheric and oceanic loading, glaciology and ice mass variability, tectonic deformation and volcanic inflation, and geoid variability. A set of GPS error sources relevant to this project are those related to the combination of the positions and velocities of a set of globally distributed stations as determined &om the analysis of GPS data, including possible methods of combining and defining terrestrial reference frames. This is were our research activities during this reporting period have concentrated. During this reporting period, we have researched two topics: (1) The effect of errors on the GPS satellite antenna models (or lack thereof) on global GPS vertical position and velocity estimates; (2) The effect of reference W e definition and practice on estimates of the geocenter variations.

Elosegui, Pedro↗

Global and regional kinematics with GPS

The inherent precision of the doubly differenced phase measurement and the low cost of instrumentation made GPS the space geodetic technique of choice for regional surveys as soon as the constellation reached acceptable geometry in the area of interest: 1985 in western North America, the early 1990's in most of the world. Instrument and site-related errors for horizontal positioning are usually less than 3 mm, so that the dominant source of error is uncertainty in the reference frame defined by the satellites orbits and the tracking stations used to determine them. Prior to about 1992, when the tracking network for most experiments was globally sparse, the number of fiducial sites or the level at which they could be tied to an SLR or VLBI reference frame usually, set the accuracy limit. Recently, with a global network of over 30 stations, the limit is set more often by deficiencies in models for non-gravitational forces acting on the satellites. For regional networks in the northern hemisphere, reference frame errors are currently about 3 parts per billion (ppb) in horizontal position, allowing centimeter-level accuracies over intercontinental distances and less than 1 mm for a 100 km baseline. The accuracy of GPS measurements for monitoring height variations is generally 2-3 times worse than for horizontal motions. As for VLBI, the primary source of error is unmodeled fluctuations in atmospheric water vapor, but both reference frame uncertainties and some instrument errors are more serious for vertical than horizontal measurements. Under good conditions, daily repeatabilities at the level of 10 mm rms were achieved. This paper will summarize the current accuracy of GPS measurements and their implication for the use of SLR to study regional kinematics.

King, Robert W.↗

Assessing Uncertainties in Gridded Emissions: A Case Study for Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide (FFCO2) Emission Data

Fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (FFCO2) are the largest input to the global carbon cycle on a decadal time scale. Because total emissions are assumed to be reasonably well constrained by fuel statistics, FFCO2 often serves as a reference in order to deduce carbon uptake by poorly understood terrestrial and ocean sinks. Conventional atmospheric CO2 flux inversions solve for spatially explicit regional sources and sinks and estimate land and ocean fluxes by subtracting FFCO2. Thus, errors in FFCO2 can propagate into the final inferred flux estimates. Gridded emissions are often based on disaggregation of emissions estimated at national or regional level. Although national and regional total FFCO2 are well known, gridded emission fields are subject to additional uncertainties due to the emission disaggregation. Assessing such uncertainties is often challenging because of the lack of physical measurements for evaluation. We first review difficulties in assessing uncertainties associated with gridded FFCO2 emission data and present several approaches for evaluation of such uncertainties at multiple scales. Given known limitations, inter-emission data differences are often used as a proxy for the uncertainty. The popular approach allows us to characterize differences in emissions, but does not allow us to fully quantify emission disaggregation biases. Our work aims to vicariously evaluate FFCO2 emission data using atmospheric models and measurements. We show a global simulation experiment where uncertainty estimates are propagated as an atmospheric tracer (uncertainty tracer) alongside CO2 in NASA's GEOS model and discuss implications of FFCO2 uncertainties in the context of flux inversions. We also demonstrate the use of high resolution urban CO2 simulations as a tool for objectively evaluating FFCO2 data over intense emission regions. Though this study focuses on FFCO2 emission data, the outcome of this study could also help improve the knowledge of similar gridded emissions data for non-CO2 compounds with similar emission characteristics.

FFCO↗